Where Friends Gather - March 18th, 2012

We've moved on to the next pub folks.  This one has run out of suds.  Please feel free to join us at the new digs.  

The previous pub session was located here. There was some great discussion going on there so feel free to revisit that post at any time.

UPDATE (at the bottom): MARCH 22, 2011

Well it seems that this general discussion room is catching on and the right kind of people are showing up here, lol.  So I thought I'd start a fresh pub since the conversation seems to be zeroing in on the view from 30,000 feet.  Besides, the previous page was growing and getting a bit burdensome to load.  We seem to be trying to nail down the larger pattern before we can even begin to figure out what might lie before us in the weeks ahead, let alone the 'days' ahead. 

Look out below.  Just a heads up that there are significant air pockets just beneath the market.  This situation exists in every single market I can get volume stats for.

We've moved on to the next pub folks.  Feel free to join us there.

The next chart is the one which seems to have ignited the current flow of conversation.  It's a great chart published by Permabear Doomster. Judging his latest comment in the previous pub, he has been refining it.  But this is a great start:

To see the piece where this chart came from, please visit  Permabear Doomster's shiny new blog.  He's putting up some great charts over there.

The next chart is one which I myself had drawn up in response to seeing PD's chart (above).  The first thing that popped right
off the chart below was the shoulder of 2008.  It's represented by the red line and I think (regardless of EWT) that it represents a heck of a lot more resistance that would first meet the eye. 

S&P Weekly - Click here for the live and updating version

Interestingly, in a subsequent discussion with Greenface, Greener pointed out that in order for the fifth leg to be shorter than the third leg it would have to end a little sooner than what PD had drawn.  I imagine that's one of the refinements PD said he was working on.  So with Greener's admonition in mind, I calculated the maximum allowable length of wave 5 to be the same as wave 3, which is 359.67 S&P points.  Naturally, a debate will most likely ensue about which low to use from the pullback into October.  Do we use the bottom of the tail of Oct. 3rd?  In that case, the maximum high for the current leg would be at 1434.44. OR... do we use the lowest low that was still participating in the trend line, the low of August 8th?  In that case, the maximum high for the current leg would peak at 1461.21. I'd argue that we could even make this into a line chart and use closing prices. 

Do you know what?  I honestly don't think it matters because the way things have been screwed up lately by central bank intervention, it wouldn't surprise me one iota if wave 5 surpassed the length of wave 3 by about 4 S&P points before the correction ensued.  Of course a raging debate will erupt right about then about wave 5 threatening to run longer than wave 3 and therefore "break EWT rules".  In my opinion that discussion or argument won't be worth a hill of beans and won't even be worth wasting our breath on.  It's close enough to that red line which, give or take about 10 points, should represent formidable resistance to any further upside.  Bottom line?  Why add another needless argument... it's almost a matter of semantics.  One caveat here... in the event that right shoulder area of 2008, somewhere very near 1440.24 is taken out with gusto, then all cards are off the table and we're probably looking at something much more bullish than most of us thought possible.  The bankers will have exerted enough influence to have messed up every EW count I know of and we'd probably be looking at an inflationary scenario the likes of which the world has never seen.

Which brings up the final chart in this series, a chart I drew up in January thinking that I was being a real maverick by even proposing such a bullish possibility.  I actually almost drew this chart with tongue in cheek.  Today... it doesn't look nearly as radical as I thought it was back then:

S&P Daily - This chart was taken from the article that discussed what seemed impossible back in January,  "But What If?".  Click here for the live and updating version.

And finally, a chart (below) which was submitted this morning by doctor_jr. and which clearly suggests the same thing... that a pullback is imminent.  I'd say that the implications of this chart are probably more ominous than even PD's chart (at the very top of the page) but at this stage of the game, what does any of us care about that?  Really, for the time being we're only interested in trying to determine when a top might appear so that we can get on with our day-to-day trading.

Normally the good doctor overlays a picture of a hot chick.  For some reason he put on some kind of fluffy horny animal instead.  Maybe it's the same thing in a round about sort of way?

UPDATE: MARCH 19, 2011:

I've added a chart of the $DAX since I believe that what happens in Germany is key for all of Europe.  I also think the wave patterns are much cleaner which would suggest that more than likely a more natural progression with much less distortion caused by manipulation.  It originally came from the "KHRYSOS" piece of two months ago, where I was simply looking at the possible bullish outcome vs. the possible bearish outcome with a goal of trying to discern which one might develop.  It appears that the argument for the bearish outcome suddenly seems to be getting quite a bit more convincing, at least from the perspective of EWT.

$DAX WEEKLY - The action in the $DAX is suddenly starting to look pretty darned bearish IMO.  Surely that wave down into October is an impulse.  Click here for a live and updated chart.

UPDATE: MARCH 22, 2011:

Nothing big... just added the DAX Daily chart below:

$DAX DAILY - The action in the $DAX is looking toppy now.  But really, we need to see more.  For example, if those moving averages roll lower, we still need to see that lower trend line be broken.  And then there's the issue of getting below the level identified by the horizontal red line.  Click here for a live and updated chart.

When was the last time we saw opening gaps lower like these babies?  Click here for a live and updating print version (so you can see the annotations)

Aussie:USD Weekly - by darkestknight - Click here for larger version

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