We've moved on to the next pub folks. This one has run out of suds. Please feel free to join us at the new digs.
The previous pub session was located here. There was some great discussion going on there so feel free to revisit that post at any time.
UPDATE (at the bottom): MARCH 22, 2011
Well it seems that this general discussion room is catching on and the right kind of people are showing up here, lol. So I thought I'd start a fresh pub since the conversation seems to be zeroing in on the view from 30,000 feet. Besides, the previous page was growing and getting a bit burdensome to load. We seem to be trying to nail down the larger pattern before we can even begin to figure out what might lie before us in the weeks ahead, let alone the 'days' ahead.
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| Look out below. Just a heads up that there are significant air pockets just beneath the market. This situation exists in every single market I can get volume stats for. |
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| We've moved on to the next pub folks. Feel free to join us there. |
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| To see the piece where this chart came from, please visit Permabear Doomster's shiny new blog. He's putting up some great charts over there. |
The next chart is one which I myself had drawn up in response to seeing PD's chart (above). The first thing that popped right
off the chart below was the shoulder of 2008. It's represented by the red line and I think (regardless of EWT) that it represents a heck of a lot more resistance that would first meet the eye.
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| S&P Weekly - Click here for the live and updating version |
Do you know what? I honestly don't think it matters because the way things have been screwed up lately by central bank intervention, it wouldn't surprise me one iota if wave 5 surpassed the length of wave 3 by about 4 S&P points before the correction ensued. Of course a raging debate will erupt right about then about wave 5 threatening to run longer than wave 3 and therefore "break EWT rules". In my opinion that discussion or argument won't be worth a hill of beans and won't even be worth wasting our breath on. It's close enough to that red line which, give or take about 10 points, should represent formidable resistance to any further upside. Bottom line? Why add another needless argument... it's almost a matter of semantics. One caveat here... in the event that right shoulder area of 2008, somewhere very near 1440.24 is taken out with gusto, then all cards are off the table and we're probably looking at something much more bullish than most of us thought possible. The bankers will have exerted enough influence to have messed up every EW count I know of and we'd probably be looking at an inflationary scenario the likes of which the world has never seen.
Which brings up the final chart in this series, a chart I drew up in January thinking that I was being a real maverick by even proposing such a bullish possibility. I actually almost drew this chart with tongue in cheek. Today... it doesn't look nearly as radical as I thought it was back then:
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| S&P Daily - This chart was taken from the article that discussed what seemed impossible back in January, "But What If?". Click here for the live and updating version. |
And finally, a chart (below) which was submitted this morning by doctor_jr. and which clearly suggests the same thing... that a pullback is imminent. I'd say that the implications of this chart are probably more ominous than even PD's chart (at the very top of the page) but at this stage of the game, what does any of us care about that? Really, for the time being we're only interested in trying to determine when a top might appear so that we can get on with our day-to-day trading.
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| Normally the good doctor overlays a picture of a hot chick. For some reason he put on some kind of fluffy horny animal instead. Maybe it's the same thing in a round about sort of way? |
UPDATE: MARCH 19, 2011:
I've added a chart of the $DAX since I believe that what happens in Germany is key for all of Europe. I also think the wave patterns are much cleaner which would suggest that more than likely a more natural progression with much less distortion caused by manipulation. It originally came from the "KHRYSOS" piece of two months ago, where I was simply looking at the possible bullish outcome vs. the possible bearish outcome with a goal of trying to discern which one might develop. It appears that the argument for the bearish outcome suddenly seems to be getting quite a bit more convincing, at least from the perspective of EWT.
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| $DAX WEEKLY - The action in the $DAX is suddenly starting to look pretty darned bearish IMO. Surely that wave down into October is an impulse. Click here for a live and updated chart. |
UPDATE: MARCH 22, 2011:
Nothing big... just added the DAX Daily chart below:
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| $DAX DAILY - The action in the $DAX is looking toppy now. But really, we need to see more. For example, if those moving averages roll lower, we still need to see that lower trend line be broken. And then there's the issue of getting below the level identified by the horizontal red line. Click here for a live and updated chart. |
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| When was the last time we saw opening gaps lower like these babies? Click here for a live and updating print version (so you can see the annotations) |
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| Aussie:USD Weekly - by darkestknight - Click here for larger version |
.........
Good evening...another week soon here.
ReplyDeletere: the red line.
Right now, I'm looking to exit my call block around 1435, and then look to short at the top of the next 60min cycle. Anywhere around 1435/45 will suffice.
I'd certainly agree that a few consecutive closes over,say 1455/60, and it's likely that instead, we'd probably tack on a further 100pts to challenge the 2007 high of 1576. I think thats not too bad a buffer zone. Besides, for non-option players, that'd equate to just a few percent stop-loss on any position probably.
-
*we still have the 'glorious news', for the Greeks to make their interest payment - this week?. If so, that could easily inspire the markets to jump another 3% to around ths target level. From there, maybe we'll then just jump around for a month or two, before properly moving lower. Regardless, as noted, anyone short around 1435/50, should make a run for it, if we broke much above 1450s. Can't hold short a 100pts higher!
-
more later.... as I tend to say lately ;)
Papa Boule theory: Underlying social mood waves are symmetrical. But up feels better than down. So market tops naturally lean right due to a combination of momentum and resistance to moving down. Nobody wants a fun party to end.
ReplyDeleteAnd that's also why markets go parabolic at peaks and have blow-off tops. That's when people are trying hardest to keep the party going and avoid the down wave. The blow off top is the last desperate effort.
Add in intervention and upwardly-biased HFTs, and you have a very distorted metric with market tops pushing much higher and occuring well after the actual social mood top is in.
It's like there's a rubber band stretched between actual social mood and inflated tops that can get stretched mighty thin. Maybe there's some way to measure that divergence and stress and forecast the snapping point -- not when the rubber band breaks, but when the attempt to pull upward against it runs out of energy and the markets snap down.
HELLO AR ;
ReplyDeleteREPORTING IN FROM THE BUNKER ON THE WESTERN FRONT , ALLES IST QUITE .
I ENJOYED YOUR CHARTS , THE THIRD ONE MAY BE THE CHARM , AND D J , IS SHOWING ABOUT THE SAME ANALYSIS, IN HIS CHART .
YOU BOTH COULD BE RIGHT ON , A SMALL CORRECTION IN AN ON GOING BULL MARKET , MIGHT BE SOON COMING UP .
WITH THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND BIG BANKS TO BIG TO FAIL , SLIGHT OF HAND WORK TO PRODUCE FOR OUR FUHRER , HIS REAPPOINTMENT FOR NOV .
THE CHART THAT D J IS SHOWING , AS A POSSIBLE FINAL TOP OF THE RALLY THAT BEGAN BACK ON THE 9TH OF MARCH , 2009 , ENDING IN THE NOVEMBER TIME PERIOD OF 2012 , COULD WELL BE POSSIBLE .
ALWAYS BEWARE OF THE IDES OF MARCH ! THERE ARE AT TIME'S , MANY MIX SIGNALS AT WORK IN THE MARCH TIME PERIOD ,
WILL IT BE SELL IN THE MONTH OF MAY AND GO AWAY ? DEPENDS ON THOSE REFERENCED ABOVE AND IF THEY WANT TO PLAY BULL OR BEAR .
I WENT TO DANNO'S SITE , FIRST TIME SINCE I WROTE THAT COMMENT HERE ABOUT SOME OF THOSE WHO SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN THERE . I SCROLLED DOWN THE ENTIRE 100 COMMENTS THAT WERE LISTED OF THE 300 SOME THING AT THE TIME , 15 HOURS WAS THE LAST TIME , AND NOT ONE JAMES OR KAY ANY WHERE TO BE SEEN AND SOME VERY FINE COMMENTS BEING MAKE BY CIVIL INTELLIGENT PEOPLE .
I THINK YOU HAVE SOME ONE READING YOUR WEB PAGE MR. A R , GOOD FOR YOU , AND YOUR COMMENT ABOUT A CERTAIN PERSON WHO WILL REMAIN UNNAMED .
I AM LOOKING AT 1400 AS MY NEXT TARGET . COULD BE BEFORE THE SMALL PULL BACK OR AFTER THE CORRECTION ?
I STILL BELIEVE THAT THE S & P 500 , IS IN A ROLLING TOP FORMATION AS PER 2000 AND 2007. THE MOST RECENT TOP RANGE'S IN PRICING . IT'S MY THOUGHT WE MIGHT WILL SEE THE FINAL TOP IN THE 1550'S TO 1570'S AREA AND PERHAPS A LITTLE BEYOND THAT PRICE LEVEL . THE MONEY PRINTING PRESS'S ARE AT WORK OVER TIME .
THE FEDERAL RESERVE HAS HAD TO PURCHASE THE LOWER TIME FRAME BILL'S OF 5 TO 7 YEARS , ABOUT 70% OF WHAT WAS OFFERED AND THE 10, 20 AND 30 YEAR PAPER , FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT OF WHAT HAS BEEN OFFERED IN THE RECENT OFFERINGS FROM THE TREASURY . AS LONG AS THE FED RES CONTINUE TO BUY
( COVER THE OFFERINGS ) , THE PRINTING PRESS'S WILL RUN AND THE MONEY GOES , NOT INTO LOANS , BUT INTO INVESTMENTS IN THE MARKET , ALONG WITH LOW INTEREST RATE'S , THE MAJOR INDEX'S WILL CONTINUE TO RISE .
I LEARNED A LONG , LONG TIME AGO , NEVER FIGHT THE TAPE !
ALL THE VERY BEST TO YOU ALL, D-KNOW.
I took a trial sub to Nouf's EW analysis ( http://www.wavepatterntraders.com/ ) and was very impressed with the analysis and charts.He sees resistance at 1407 and thinks we get a correction from there,but 1370 is his critical resistance level and if that doesnt break he ses the market going higher.He made a comment which chimed with me,that the European indices are more obviously corrective and that FTSE is at the C=A level and he expects a correction.That begs the question whether Europe might be peaking and US pulling away or whether Europe is leading. ?He didnt show a Dax chart but Dax is closing in on 7200,2x the 3600 low and important Gann numbers,on a 3 year cycle and on a natural time cycle, the Spring equinox ,so some interesting junctures here ! Here is my take on the Dow http://chartramblings.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/dow.html
ReplyDeletePE ratios are a great and relevant way of measuring the social mood. In 2000 i think the SnP had a 40 PE.
ReplyDeleteIn 2007 it was 20 or low 20's. Very briefly in 2008-9 it was off the charts as earnings temporarily became
fiction. Think the market multiple today is around 15.
Point is i kinda agree with the doomster that P3 hasn't begun. The correction in PE's began in 2000 and this
large megaphone correction since 2000 is not over imho. Any one got a good long term PE ratio chart ?
HELLO C R;
ReplyDeleteALWAYS A NICE CHART AND ANALYSIS , FROM YOUR AREA OF THE WEB .
FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO FOLLOW TIME AND CYCLES , THERE IS COMING UP ASTROGEOLOGY , AN EVENT THAT HAS NEVER BEEN WITNESS BY MANKIND EVER BEFORE .
THE LAST TIME IT HAPPENED , WAS 24,800 YEARS AGO ! YES , 24, 800 YEARS AGO .
NOW , GET THIS , IT HAPPENS ON THE 21ST OF DEC 2012 , ON THE VERY SAME DAY THAT THE MAYAN CALENDAR ENDED , WHEN THE MAYAN'S DATED THE LAST KNOWN REFERENCE TO THEIR MAYAN CALENDAR ? !
WHAT AN ODD OCCURRENCE , THAT THIS MAJOR EVENT IN OUR MILKY WAY GALAXY WOULD OCCUR ON THE VERY SAME DATE .
ASTRONOMERS , HAVE DETERMINED THE ASTRONOMICAL YEARS THAT THAT EVENT TAKES PLACE.
IT IS THE ELLIPTICAL PLAIN OF OUR SOLAR SYSTEM , THAT CROSS'S THE CENTER OF OUR GALAXY IN THE EXACT CENTER OF OUR GALAXY !
NOW , ASTRONOMERS , HAVE KNOWN FOR SOME YEARS , OF THE ASTROLOGICAL WORK THAT THE MAYAN LEFT IN THEIR WRITINGS .
BUT , HOW IN THE HELL DID THE MAYAN'S FIGURE OUT THE VERY EXACT DATE , OF THIS MAJOR EVENT .
WHY , DID THEY END THEIR CALENDAR AT THAT VERY SAME POINT IN TIME ?
WHY DID THE MAYAN'S END THEIR CALENDAR ON THAT DATE ?
WHY NOT THE REST OF DECEMBER AND A BEGINNING OF A NEW YEAR OF 2013 ?
A FURTHER THOUGHT , WHERE DID THE MAYAN'S GO TO ?
THEY BUILT CITIES TO LAST FOR CENTURIES AND THEY WERE THE MOST ADVANCE OF ANYONE IN THEIR TIME PERIOD !
THEY WERE AND ARE REAL MYSTERY ?
WELL , STAY TUNED SPACE CADETS .
ALL THE VERY BEST TOO YOU ALL AFTER 21ST DEC 2012 ? D-KNOX .
Good analogy ... I also think the early shorts get squeezed and that also contributes to the blow off tops.
ReplyDeleteThat's how I tied into Elliot Wave Theory and related topics. I began by noticing a 'cycle' of major events in my research into ancient history. There was(is) a distinct periodic element to events, from volcanic activity to meteor impacts, from earthquakes to the rise and fall of civilizations (the Mayans bering one of them). ...and, of course, the cycle of geological, solar and astronomical events (CME's, precessional cycles, galactic alignments...). Every topic, venue and discipline I examined and researched showed some type of cyclical activity. You can't set your watch by the cycles, but you can dang near mark them on your calendar.
ReplyDeleteNear the end of my research, I happened upon Miller, Joubert and Butler's "The Rise and Fall of Civilizations." A work on Elliot Wave Theory that encompased over twelve thousand years of mankind's history on earth. That, eventually, led me to start reading certain types of economic blogs...
(One thing I learned along the way was that nothing that we've ever been taught about anything is true...except for our A, B, C's and 1, 2, 3's...and I often wonder about their dependability...)
The Mayans fell in the usual way. Over-extension of everything from populations to economic and natural resources, as well a political and diplomatic over-extenstion, combined with the political, social and bureaucratic corruption and decadance that - eventually - undermines all civilizations and cultures known to man.
btw, what we're seeing in the world, today, is the collapse of a five hundred year old global civilization.During the known history of mankind, the global civilization rises and falls about once evey one thousand years, give or take a bit. It usually comes back better than ever, but it takes awhile. To some degree, the cycle of global civilization seems to follow the natural climatic cycles. Every five hundred years, there is a mini global warming age followed by a five hundred year mini-ice age.
ReplyDelete(The natural state of the universe is towards increasing complexity. Entropy is a part of the process -cycles- but it is not the natural state of the universe, despite what many in our mainstream academies of higher learning might otherwise claim.)
All of these cycles can be described by variations on Elliot Wave Theory and charts. All of them.
It is not a deal breaker, but I am watching the 3/12 EUR/USD pivot here (a fraction under 1.32). If that breaks, may need to reassess the down play for a couple days at least. Not a deal breaker, but would muddy it up if it broke.
ReplyDeletehttp://i835.photobucket.com/albums/zz279/SoulJester/SKEW_WEEKLY.png
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http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/06/BBInsideDay.asp#axzz1hPuFjSZD
DKNOX, DO YOU HAPPEN TO HAVE ANY LINKS TO ARTICLES FOR FOLKS WHO'D LIKE TO READ UP ON THIS? SOUNDS FASCINATING.
ReplyDeletePebble, did you get my message re: J. Lounsbury?
ReplyDeleteTerrific post, AR. Looks like you, Permabear, Chartrambler and Dr J are all in the same boat -- a downturn soon, followed by a possible last pop higher. That's the harmonic viewpoint, too. There's a pretty good chance of a turn at 1405-1409, followed by a low to around 1380 and a last wave to 1450-1470.
ReplyDeleteI put up two posts today: one outlining how the harmonic picture intersects with the chart patterns I'm watching...
http://pebblewriter.blogspot.com/2012/03/big-picture-mar-18-2012.html
...and another making good on my promise to explain how Crab and Butterfly Patterns work:
http://pebblewriter.blogspot.com/2012/03/crab-and-butterfly-patterns-explained.html
Thanks for running such a great site. Nice to see so many quality guys posting here -- a credit to your efforts.
Cheers
Hey AR, just now noticed it. I've been charting for the past 16 hours and am a little dain bread at the moment. Thanks very much for following up. If they'd like to post it as is, that's fine. Or, as he suggested, I can incorporate the comments -- just can't do it till tomorrow morning. If you could relay, perhaps he can email me directly? I'll copy this to your email, too. Thanks, again!
ReplyDeleteIt seems to me I have your email address but I can't remember which one it is. And of course we don't want to publish our email addresses here I don't think... not with you know who lurking. So I left JL's email address for you at SA. I hope that works?
ReplyDeleteI just sent him and you a message via email. Let me know if you don't get it. And, thanks again!
ReplyDeleteI already have your email. Thanks. And you're welcome, lol.
ReplyDeleteAUD doneski?
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/KnUwM7CI
Here's my little ES chart which thinks the overnight high was the price extreme of the 3rd wave off the March 6 low. If the supposed 4th wave seriously busts the lower channel, I may have to consider the wave complete.
ReplyDeleteHELLO PEBBLEWRITER AND WBONESTEEL ;
ReplyDeleteTHE INFORMATION ON THE SOLAR EVENT , CAME FROM A PERSON WITH A DOCTORATE DEGREE AND I DID NOT CATCH THE SOURCE AS PER MY HEARING . I WOULD BELIEVE THAT THIS SOLAR EVENT SHOULD HAVE REFERENCES IN VARIOUS AREAS OF THE ASTROLOGICAL WEB SITE'S .
I HAVE FOUND THIS INDIVIDUAL TO BE VERY TRUTHFUL , AS I HAVE IN THE PAST DID RESEARCH ON OTHER ITEMS THAT HE HAS RELEASED IN CONVERSATIONS . I HAVE ALWAYS FOUND HIS STATEMENTS TO BE VERY TRUTHFUL IN THE PAST 10 YEAS OR SO , WHEN I USED TO RESEARCH HIS STATEMENTS .
I NO LONGER HAVE DONE SO FOR THE LAST 8 YEAR , I DO NOT EVEN QUESTION HIS STATEMENTS . I HAVE NOT EVEN TOOK THE TIME TO LOOK FOR PROOF, AS HE HAS EARNED MY CONFIDENCE OVER THIS LENGTHY TIME PERIOD OF 18 YEARS ON GOING .
A WEB SITE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE MAYAN CIVILIZATION AND CULTURE , OF ONE OF THE MOST ADVANCED SOCIETIES IN ANCIENT TIMES , CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WITH MUCH REFERENCES , IT IS AT ;
www.answers.com/topic/maya . VERY INFORMATIVE AND AT LEAST AN HOURS WORTH OF READING ABOUT , A TRULY IMPRESSIVE CULTURE ON THIS SIDE OF THE WORLD .
ALL THE BEST TO YOU ALL , IN THESE TROUBLING TIMES . D-KNOX.
THANKS DKNOX,SOUNDS VERY INTERESTING !
ReplyDeleteHello, Soul Jester!
ReplyDeleteI like your new avatar.
Keep an eye on Apple and Amazon. There's some rumor mill (g)rumblings that they may in a wee bit of trouble...
ReplyDeleteAside from other economic indicators, Apple relies upon wireless infrastructures that other businesses provide...while Amazon relies upon volume w/razor thin margins while avoiding state and local sales taxes. If sales slump for either party, for any reason, or if factors outside those companies change the realities upon which those business models are based...(Think: NetFlix)
Now, hedging my Ultimate Doomer-ism a bit...the makets could, - I say, 'could' - stumble along for another year or so after the next correction.
I've added a chart of the $DAX since I believe that what happens in Germany is key for all of Europe. I also think the wave patterns are much cleaner which would suggest that more than likely a more natural progression with much less distortion caused by manipulation. It appears that the argument for the bearish outcome suddenly seems to be getting quite a bit more convincing IMO.
ReplyDeletenever in doubt amigo,lol
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure if you're inferring that you are also expecting a crash or if you're referring to my demented bias, lol
ReplyDeleteBOTH!
ReplyDeleteThis market is the little engine that could...
ReplyDeleteI have to admit though compadre, they've darned near got me convinced that they're going to just inflate the world out of this mess... successfully I mean. Of course that's going to be pure hell for the homeless and the working homeless of the world (death for a good percentage of them). But there's no doubt that's what the banking cabal is trying to do. The only conflict I'm having is whether or not a deflationary scenario is even possible after all. I mean Greece has flat out defaulted and the global equities markets have celebrated that disaster with near-record moves higher. So what happens next? Spain defaults and the S&P hits 1900? Apparently that's the effect of defaults, inflation. Not possible unless the bankers are ready to unleash printing unlike anything the world has ever experienced before.
ReplyDeleteThe banks are exposed to 1.5 QUADRILLION of risk in the derivatives markets. If even 1% of that risk starts to unwind on them, the deflation would make the '30s look like child's play. Consider that the average price of a home in Detroit City is now at $6000. Hundreds are available for purchase at $100. That's the kind of deflation I'm talking about. This risk for it is there. But so far, the bastards have been able to avoid it. How much longer? Forever? I dunno.
The Russell is higher by 1.6% on yet another blast-off for the ages... and its $VIX is flat.
ReplyDeleteThanks Rob. They're from the movie "The Matrix".
ReplyDeleteResistance is useless.
ReplyDeleteAs you say, fighting against the gazillion dollar pile of stinky dinosaur dung is an exercise in futility.
Just spent another 2 minutes I'll never get back @ Daneric's Bull Blog. What a shithole he has let it become. He essentially invites people into his home, they crap all over him, and he sits by as if to say "thank you sir may I have another" (bonus points if you know the movie reference). BTW, thanks Greg for defending us against oneofdaworst earlier over there.
ReplyDeleteWho let's something they have created and nurtured get dismantled like that?
In other news, what the hell is going on with the market today? Is default really that bullish of an event? Is Obama's latest EO that cool? UVXY is down 12% while the VIX is up 2.5%!
The charts or the markets, or I guess they're one and the same LOL!
ReplyDeleteIt's from Animal House.
ReplyDeleteI'll consider that VIX rise the right kind of divergence.
ReplyDeleteSo is Wagner. I found this photo on a website dedicated to "Photos By Tourists" where some innocent bystander caught this episode as it unfolded. The caption read "Mike Wagner gives birth to his own twin."
ReplyDeleteNice write up of the Vix/Tvix dance. You have to be pretty smart to understand these vehicles.
ReplyDeleteAll i know is the biggest moves in tvix come at the end of a major move to the down side.
I have bought this as a very short term in and outer, but do we really understand all the side bets
that come into play ? http://soberlook.com/2012/03/tvix-short-squeeze.html
Lolcat says AAPL is done. Well, he started to say it, but then he heard a can opener.
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Noice charts SJ. Those are the best i've seen lately.
ReplyDeleteThe Bernank is on Capitol Hill wednesday and that should be interesting. Long term rates are at something of
ReplyDeletea break out level and the real intentions of Dimon, Blankfiend and Bernanke could be revealed.
Banks will benefit from a steepening yield curve and we all know Dimon is in favor of that.
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com
Nice AR. Pretzel had a sweet-looking Dax chart today too .
ReplyDeleteGruel, AR. Soup would have been a luxury !
ReplyDeleteIf currency guys stop by, GBP/USD might be the first to roll over, imho. Hope it is okay I post here. Cannot take reading the blog formerly known as Danerics too much without hating people.
ReplyDeletehttp://silversaxena.blogspot.com/2012/03/ust-yields-blowing-out.html
ReplyDeleteThe entire UST curve is sitting at an important juncture. Bernanke must hold rates down, otherwise the impacts are significantly negative. Will the equity markets be thrown under the bus to save the UST bond market?
This is not tradable, but I have been pondering that Bernanke is generally an honest guy and won't allow Fed intervention to affect a Presidential election and may sit on his hands until November? Of course, we would see a move in October because those that know would know ahead of time. Just a ponder.
ReplyDeleteAberdeen Asset Management strategist - rising unit labour costs http://www.bloomberg.com/video/88453082/
ReplyDeletewhatsup SJ - its not hard Benny told you the plan,dont be a doomer, gotta take the blinders off .Sad really ! .(....hearing that moron in my sleep ) ...lol
ReplyDeleteHey SJ ... very well put ... I agree .. and it sure is draining to hate people.]
ReplyDeleteI don't follow that one, but I did hear they are talking of some QE in the near future ... is that why you think it'll roll over? Or is it showing technical signs of rolling over?
Do you think the Euro/USD is close to rolling over?
I have some bearish harmonic patterns on GBP (30, 60, 120, and 180 minute charts) and small one on EUR/USD and small bull on USD/CHF...they are not a given, just part of the indicators, but playing it to the short side and waiting for something to break its 5:00 pm low to signal a bit of risk off..
ReplyDeleteNo problem .. I couldn't keep quiet at the assumption the bears had left meant we'd capitulated ... I mean people do tire of getting shit on after awhile! The truly shocking thing is that this news seems to come as a total surprise to the shitters. In general I try to limit my responses and wasted energy on the trolls. But it's a welcome respite over here. Thanks AR!
ReplyDeleteWow ... what's happening to skew? Is this people buying a ton of puts expiring some months in the future?
ReplyDeleteThanks ... and welcome to the pub!
ReplyDeleteDie, AUD
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/XhwuMragq0y
Don't they usually tank equities to scare up some bond buyers when they have a pile of them to sell? Guess the question might be when is the next heap they have to hock?
ReplyDeleteAnd I thought there were like 50 trillion of derivatives based on interest rates? So I think that would argue that bonds is the higher priority fire. to fight.
Well, not sure if that was the big top or not, but caught and long dollar short risk and gonna see if it runs...
ReplyDeleteFinally some impulsive downs. I like your count.
ReplyDeleteI thought I caught this move, but I see that just before the puke they took my stop at 1.0622.
Almost yay.
I see there were some headlines about BHP saying iron ore demand growth to slow from china, and the china infrastructure build to slow ... seems to be the catalyst. But waves are going to take over here soon, eh?
Greg, those are the exact points as to why equities/risk will be sacrificed to save the bond market. There are over 200T interest rate derivatives out there, and any jump in rates would kill those banks. So, if UST can catch a bounce here soon, it should also mark a reversal in equities/risk markets as well.
ReplyDeleteShame re your stop. Was a nasty (2), following an LD for (1).
ReplyDeleteLooks like a done deal to bust 1.0557 now......
Stage 1 complete....now must keep concentrating. No sleep yet for 36hrs. Have to get through this afternoon at work & grab a nana nap before Euro open. Later, amigo,
DK
Some of you are just getting started. I'm having the nightcap. Either way, Cheers.
ReplyDeletehttp://nourishingobscurity.com/2012/03/19/nightcap-3/
Thanks. 36 hours! You have amazing stamina -- is that commone with other Australians? Or just currency trading Australians? Good luck, it's a critical time now ... as maybe we finally have a 3 of 3 on the table?! Naps are what Einstein lived on too.
ReplyDeleteFortunately my job has trained me for lack of sleep over the years. Last night..talk about eventful - right when AUD was epaking, about 5am my time, someone tyried to break into the house & I had to call the police. I think they scared them off, but I was sat there trying to place sell orders while holding a iron (for doing clothes) in one hand in case I had to bash someone with it)...The Beast sure doesn't make it easy eh!
ReplyDeleteI gotta say tracking this Aussie beast for months is truly the most difficult thing I've ever attempted in my life. And I got a heap of respect for you the way you stay focused and patient and adapt the count as da beast writhes and thrashes. The patience of a lion on the hunt.
ReplyDeleteexcept with AUD, quite often YOU are the hunted
ReplyDeleteDamn! That's scary. But this truly feels like a battle that takes 100% focus, and you actually had a real battle on your hands. A less fierce currency trader surely would have bagged the sell orders in the stress of the other danger. LOL. But I can see the urgency ... after how many GD months ... nobody else would understand but a currency trader. haha! Glad you were safe (and got your sell orders in!!!)
ReplyDeleteYou're welcome Greg. That's what this place is really all about. Just a place where we can exchange ideas like adults without those assholes even having a chance to do their thing here. We literally don't have time for that type of aggravation. For those who think it's entertaining... great, they can stay there and enjoy it all they like.
ReplyDeleteNice. I'm at his site every day but I hadn't had a chance yet today. I'm on my way. I don't comment much over there but he's sure receptive to them. Good crowd over there too. Very, very respectful.
ReplyDeleteGot it. Grool.
ReplyDeleteHey, AR: your weekly chart above shows a potential H&S pattern with the lower dotted line as a neckline. By my calcs, the potential right shoulder is still in play all the way up to 1418.
ReplyDeleteOn another note, there are two major rising wedges with apexes in the near future - May and January. The smaller of the two (in yellow below) is approaching .886 in price and .618 in terms of time of the larger one (red). Within the smaller one itself, we're at most a day or two away from the .786 in time and the .886 in price is around 1418.
http://pebblewriter.blogspot.com/2012/03/big-picture-part-2-mar-19-2012.html
Last, I read the Tsy Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) minutes every month. http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2012/02/01/tbac-meeting-minutes-released/ Lately, they've been pushing the idea of floating rate notes in order to meet demand on the part of money market mutual funds and other short term investors. Today, I saw a MSM mention for the first time. It strikes me, especially after watching the terrific video on wage inflation Chartrambler posted earlier, that the real reason is lack of interest in the existing offerings in a rising rate environment. It's bad enough earning 25 bps, but in an inflationary environment...?
Cheers
Nice catch, CR, thanks. Highly recommend this, folks -- and the two videos on Chinese real estate on the same page.
ReplyDeleteAn attempted break-in at your own home is so incredibly infuriating. I've got a Louisville slugger at the ready and I'll use the damned thing if I have to. To be honest DK, nothing beats a dog for protection. With a dog around, the need to even pull a gun in your home basically disappears.
ReplyDeleteI had a German Shepard at one time... a big bruiser at 97 lb. He was a purebred, not one of those mutts that bite people and then get passed off as 'part Germans Shepard'. We did a little guard training with him but you know what, they don't need it. Their natural instinct is to protect you, your wife, your children, your home... anything that's yours... he'll protect it. And fearless man... you wouldn't believe how fearless they are. I told my dog to "get it", meaning attack a moving bull dozer that was working on a project I was running. I didn't think he'd do it. I literally couldn't believe my eyes when he got a bite on that gigantic yellow bucket while the machine was pushing earth and tried to stop that dozer. Freaking unbelievable. And they'll love ya to pieces at home too. I'd show you a picture of him if it was loaded on my computer but there aren't any.
In any case, here's a picture of the next dog I'm getting to help protect me in my own home:
Fortunately, it's not my home & my family aren't here. But i appreciate your concern. I'm working away some gordforsaken outback town (hence all the time i have currently to try & tame The Beast)
ReplyDeleteI actually do have a Louisville Slugger too myself, which I bought on a trip through US many years ago & I keep it under my bed (to beat my wife-ha). This time I made-do with an iron, but threatening to get the creases out of the intruder's shirt is hardly gonna scarI him though I suppose. Anyway, AUD was topping , so I was in no mood for frivolity. i would have beaten the crap out of him if it meant I would get my trades on! I need some sleep. later amigo
oh forgot
ReplyDeleteAUD 15min update: so far, so good.
off to sleep for a bit
http://screencast.com/t/Fwy2NrYC
Thanks for the link Pebble. You know, I can read one of those documents and come away from it having gained very little because It just doesn't sink in. I'm more of a visual guy I guess. I just can't make heads nor tails of something like that. It's been one of my weak points for a long time. After having read it, I'll ask myself "So what does it all mean?", and the honest answer I have to give myself is "I don't know... I wasn't paying attention", lol
ReplyDeleteThanks for the charts as always. So 1418 still seems like a reasonable target. I just wish the damned thing would put in a decent correction at least. I mean this business of going straight up every single day for 3 months straight is just a bit too arrogant for my likeing. You'd think that if the pigs running the show need patsies to sell their stocks to, they' at least invite them on board the train. They're not even allowing an opportunity for the average Joe to get into the market if he wanted to. The problem for the banksters is probably that Joe doesn't want any part of it. The bankers have nobody to sell to except the pension funds. Those are the people who are going to be left holding the bag if and when this disaster starts to unfold as it should.
Great to see you as always.
Later bud.
ReplyDeleteps (yes yes I'm going to bed soon, honest)
ReplyDeleteGreg et al: if we get 5 down down confirmed soon, will be gunning for major opportunity to smash it again on the (2) retrace later tonight. Will see you then.
ps AUD is now 'The Killer Rabbit'
pps looks like a big triangle building for (4) (seems to be making a habit of large wave 4's recently)
ReplyDeleteOK definitely going to bed now....defo
Holy crapola! I thought I was dreaming-noice!
ReplyDeleteAUD Update
http://screencast.com/t/bJsx5BnqUq
weeee.eeee. extended 3r
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/tiNtQXuw
Wowzer ... your count seems to have nailed it ... I will patiently wait for the 2 retrace! 1.0575ish ... or maybe that changes with the extended 5 ... Congratulations you deserve it!
ReplyDeleteIt appears to me that ES is completing a 4th wave of the rally that commenced March 6. Following from this count, my price extreme target is about 1420.
ReplyDeletePeter Brandt on corn http://peterlbrandt.com/corn-2-75-per-bushel-move-is-pending-very-soon/
ReplyDeleteExcellent work as always. And a good spot for one of those "unfinished" counts that happen at tops -- that expected one more wave up that never comes.
ReplyDeleteNoice DK. We is rolling.
ReplyDeleteIn keeping up with the AUD theme, AUD Futures are in a precarious spot right now. If no real bounce materializes it could get dragged down very very quickly, now where's that wabbit...
ReplyDeletehttp://dl.dropbox.com/u/59021800/New/6A%202012-03-20-TOS_CHARTS.png
Nicely done guys! The next wave down I hope I join you!
ReplyDeletegot stopped out by a pip last night ... and should have put it back on. Lessons learned.
I'm gonna be with you this time ... damned bucking rabbit.
ReplyDeleteI like Aussie's new name ... the Killer Rabbit.
"It has fangs THIS LONG."
"Aw comeon, it's just a little rabbit." AHHHHHHHH!
No worries GIB, for all we know this pivot could hold and it could be an ABC up to 1.07 on March 22. Plentay of trades comings no matter what. Always are.
ReplyDeleteYou'd better believe those happen. I'm still waiting for the fifth leg lower at March 6th, 2009.
ReplyDeleteMarch, 2009 bottom
Very nice CR. I'm not familiar with Peter Brandt. Do you check in with that site often? Does he specialize in commodities analysis? Thanks for that link.
ReplyDeletehe's a traditional TA man,a succesful private trader of some 30 years.I check out the site occasionally.He has written a book but I haven't read it.
ReplyDeleteOk thanks. I actually started my trading career trading grains on the now defunct Winnipeg Commodities Exchange. I'll check out Mr. Brandt's site when I have a bit more time. Thanks again.
ReplyDeleteYou keep putting up good charts and valuable observations Rob. Much appreciated. And you were worried that I might get upset if you posted a link to your own site, lol. Not at all bud. Here, let me do it, lol. Folks, please check out Rob's site when you get a second. The man keeps providing great observations and on a timely basis. I find your stuff to be very valuable Robman... no worries.
ReplyDeleteThank you AR. Hey it doesn't hurt to ask, especially since this is your site and not mine. Plus don't wanna ruin the good vibe you got going on over here :)
ReplyDeleteSome guys don't like it if it's just kind of pimping a site that offers basically nada. I suppose I wouldn't care for that too much either. But when guy like yourself, CR, Pebble, PD and others (like Pretzel if he wanted to) provide links to stuff on their sites it's always valuable. No offense to any other blog owners I might have neglected to name either. I'm just in a bit of a hurry right, lol.
ReplyDeleteHi AR! I have been having a heckofatime wrapping my head and heart around this market. I think I have been very patient and understanding with it all, but I am truly beginning to think the Feds antics will keep this market going up indefinitely. Perhaps I'm a slow learner and the loser the fellas over at Daneric's blog seem to enjoy drilling into. So be it. I'd much rather discuss TA and fundamentals with folk like you.
ReplyDeleteDo you think this can continue up for the next year until after the election? Will it?
Be well... Great to see some familiar faces sipping on their beverage of choice here. Salud and Sante!
This is a short video invterview from Bloomberg that's definitely worth watching. A great argument for no more QE and talks about why rates are rising for the wrong reasons:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/88453082/
Hi DL. Where in heck have you been? Don't be shy to hang out here, the guys who hang out here like you :-)
ReplyDeleteBelieve me, you're not alone in those thoughts. None of us know for sure. The ramp up since November has just been mind boggling and it sure gives the impression that the banksters are winning. Greece provides the world with the biggest sovereign default in history and the markets celebrate it by exploding higher? What the hell? As I asked the other day, "What's next? Spain defaults and the S&P explodes to 1900? If you don't mind, I'll ask you to refer to a comment I made to DK yesterday. Just hit your Control+F and type in "quad". That should take you directly to that comment.
I still think we're heading lower, for a sizable correction at least. But I guess we'll all be wiser for keeping a completely open mind about the unthinkable, an inflationary phase the likes of which the world has never seen... without any deflationary phase for a few more years. I doubt that happens, but we have to keep an open mind about that possibility. The size and shape of the next correction (if and when it ever comes) should go a long way to answering these questions for us. Hang in there. And here, lol.
It's an acceleration channel too. Getting below it is kinda toppy.
ReplyDeleteI agree. Not to mention that the Russell has been underperforming the S&P since early Feb. IOW, IMO the Russell is starting to lead to the downside. At the very least it's revealing a decreasing appetite for the riskier issues I tink.
ReplyDeleteThank you for your kind words, AR. I liked the Bloomberg clip. Thank you. I dont watch very much TV, but when I do tune into the business channel, it is Bloomberg. I like the Charlie Rose interviews a lot as well.
ReplyDeleteYou lucky dog! You live in such splendor!
ReplyDeleteHi Doc, I sure hope this is a wave four, cuz I can only count to five.. lol. It cant happen soon enuff.
ReplyDeleteBTW, what is the cartoon? You always post great nostalgia which rattles my brain and begs the question: looks familiar, I know Ive seen it, but what is it?
That's Milton the Monster and Friends:
ReplyDeletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milton_the_Monster
I'll never forget the theme song:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gJAm1BA6Fg
I suspect Milton's voice was inspired by Gomer Pyle.
Yeah, I have to admit I've been pretty spoiled all my life with the beauty around here. Thanks for noticing it. I'm glad you've been able to drive through these mountains and they'll still be here when you come back. Make sure you do, ok?
ReplyDeleteThis is great... and it caused me to look up a couple of my favorites:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqyCPUmjIj4&feature=related
I recall Andy Kaufman's Mighty Mouse theme "comedy" routine. That was amusing, but not the equal of his Elvis impersonation or Tony Clifton.
ReplyDeleteHere is a very interesting video that predicts a monster earthquake for March 22. I picked it up from commenter jbg1911 on Pretzel's site. jbg1911 often posts here as well... a good dude.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJiLKUoPdaA
"Anonymous" just posted on my blog how you don't understand the A/D line.I will put it in the spam bin unless you want to reply to it.
ReplyDeletewho was it said "if you're not confused you're not paying attention" ! I had a friend phone me a couple of days ago,an unemployed stockbroker whose pension has been in cash since 2008,asking me had the market broken out and should he get back in the market ? and he's supposed to be a pro ! lol
ReplyDeleteThis one is very entertaining: Elvis Kaufman
ReplyDeleteNah... just leave it there as further evidence. I won't respond to it either. He's doing the exact same thing on Pretzel's site although he didn't name me outright. But it's obvious who he's talking about since I'm the only person I'm aware of who has been pointing out the neg. divergences between the Advancers-decliners and equities. He keeps on referring to the "cumulative" A/D Line, which is a very valid indicator, one which has been in my own tool box for 10 years+, but that doesn't change the facts one iota. He just can't accept the fact that there are more that one way to skin a cat and doesn't seem to realize that this chart will effect a change in this chart. I mean it appears that he literally doesn't understand the difference between the two. If you can stand it, I'd ask that you just leave that evidence there for future reference.
ReplyDeleteWhen he died nobody was quite sure whether it should be believed. If I learned tomorrow it was a hoax and he's been anonymously flipping burgers for the past 25 years, I wouldn't be shocked.
ReplyDelete"can't leave it alone" is a phrase that seems to describe several of his obsessions ! I will leave it,no problem.
ReplyDeleteI actually never did like the guy much, mostly because of that immature Latka-like persona he always put on. I actually didn't see him do his better stuff like the Elvis impersonations until well after he took off to flip burgers.
ReplyDeleteThank you. I 'did' respond to it after all. But I will not entertain a war with him in your home. No worries.
ReplyDeleteDAX upside wave structure kinda looks complete.
ReplyDeleteVery nice doc. That works very well with my weekly DAX chart just above.
ReplyDeleteI first saw him on Saturday Night Live in the 70s. He did the Elvis impersonation and I was a fan. If you browse the various Elvis bits on youtube, you'll see he did a variety of Elvis songs.
ReplyDeleteyes a few do.I will just spam them if I get any more.
ReplyDeleteYay!
ReplyDeleteIf currency guys are around, I am watching the 5:00 pm low in AUD and NZD, which is also around the midpivot off the low (better look in AUD) from this afternoon. If it does run, the Dr. Jr. is roight (again) and we could do about another 36 hours (depends how you count the correction...could be longer) to AUD/USD 1.07ish to complete the wave 2. If it breaks, and the bigger pivot breaks, then bears gots the ball.
ReplyDeleteNo pivot breaky, no _______.....
Hey SJ
ReplyDeletestill looking for it to take out 1.0423 in next 24hrs (haven't checked Dr J stuff yet, but presumably short-term bullsih?)
http://screencast.com/t/6aWsf6aU6Uj
I think he has one more equity wave up. I am agnostic on it and just waiting for a break in case they want to do one more run into the 22nd-23rd....I harvested today and am just long what was an NZD/USD long hedge from this afternoon. I could see this puking, not making a call at all, just waiting and beings careful on it. Waking up to the sell this morning was very noice! Thank you for the charts the past few days!
ReplyDeleteUSD/CHF is at a bunch of support. 61.8 of the most recent wave up, the 3/8 pivot, trendline drawn off the August and February low, and 13 8 hour candles down (don't ask)...looking at playing around with it scalp wise here...that is about all I got until they break a pivot on the 15 minute chart or an 8 hour candle low.
ReplyDeletedont floow chf
ReplyDeletenzusd does look like a (2) headed for 50% fib doesnt it. so AUD.....er..not enough time today
I'm not sure what you mean by your last paragraph SJ, but it's ok man. There's a huge difference between something as simple and honest as you perhaps not agreeing with somebody else and a full frontal, mean spirited, attack on somebody. Hell man, you have every right to your own views and of course you're welcome to speak about them and display them here. Besides, they're valuable. No worries at all. You're a smart enough guy to know what I mean when I say I won't put up with personal attacks on other people. You have never done that as far as I know. So it's ok man... relax :-)
ReplyDeleteThanks by the way ... and with AUD it's hard to rule anything out ... I'm on the sidelines waiting for some retrace ... we'll see what we get.
ReplyDeleteI must have blog PTSD. Sorry.
ReplyDeleteNow that makes me feel better! Thanks CR!
ReplyDeleteHey AR, I know you run a class act here and everyone is so well cultured. I thought I would help add to the community by providing a little classical music to go with your sipping cognac and discussion of the marquets. I know you gentlemen will enjoy this!
ReplyDeletehttp://thedailywh.at/2012/03/04/everybody-needs-a-hobby-of-the-day-73/
Ah yes, the triangle of bear destruction. It will be remembered for a long time.
ReplyDeleteSorry for what? You're fine dude, lol.
ReplyDeleteNZD hit 50% for (2)? bang on
ReplyDeleteAUD hit 38% fib for (4) ?
no time thas all
Lol... now that's different. If I'm not mistaken, they're twins.
ReplyDeleteAUD
ReplyDelete(5) down in progress?
http://screencast.com/t/PX3GMd1gw
I think you might be right on direction here.
ReplyDeleteIndeed, it was not bear-friendly.
ReplyDeleteKiller Rabbit on the loose
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/UVBYzLIUw
Regarding the PermaBear Doomster chart above -- the EWT "3rd wave can't be shortest" rule would limit wave V to no more than 1434. If someone else already mentioned that, sorry.
ReplyDeleteDon't let it bother you, the didactic are constantly punished by their personalities. They cannot help themselves. Like the final 'nothing personal' statement.
ReplyDeleteAhhh, this is where all of the cool guys are hanging out, the ex-pats from EricDan's site. That site is and has gone down big time, some, like me, afraid of posting as they might be the next tgt for the insane.
ReplyDeleteHELLO AND WELCOME TO KATZO 7;
ReplyDeleteWE ARE CIVIL , SEEKING KNOWLEDGE AND UNDERSTANDING INDIVIDUALS WHO HAVE FOUND A R WITH OTHERS, WHO MAKE INFORMED COMMENTS HERE , WHERE WE ARE WELCOMED . THERE ARE SOME HERE WHO MIGHT ALSO HAVE WEB SITES OF THEIR OWN , WHO ALSO SEEK THE ABOVE .
I DID SOME RECENT RESEARCH AFTER RETURNING FROM THE VA , AND LEARNED OF A INDIVIDUAL WHO HAS DONE EXTENDED RESEARCH IN THE HIGHEST FORM OF MATHEMATICS .
HE HAS PUBLISHED A NUMBER OF BOOKS AND SCIENTIFIC ARTICLES IN VARIOUS SCIENTIFIC JOURNALS , ONE OF THE AREAS THAT CAUGHT MY ATTENTION , WAS THE AREA OF ( WAVE'S ) .
HE HAS DEVELOPED A MATHEMATICAL MODEL ON WAVES THAT REALLY IS THE 21ST CENTURY .
HIS NAME IS DR. PINSKY ; HIS THEORY IS CALLED ( WAVELETS ) WITH MATHEMATICAL FORMULA .
VERY INTERESTING READING . AT THE FOLLOWING ADDRESS . www.answers.com/topic/mark-pinsky. and www.answers.con/topic/wavelet.
IT MIGHT WELL BE POSSIBLE USING THESE WAVELETS , TO USE THAT PROCESS IN A PROGRAM IN ANALYSIS OF STOCK INDEX'S OR INDIVIDUAL STOCKS . TO BUILT A PROCESS USING HIS MATHEMATICAL FORMULA , BY USING DATA FROM THE VARIOUS PAST YEARS TO SEE WHAT MIGHT BE THE RESULTS THAT COME OUT OF THAT PROCESS .
WHO KNOWS , WHERE THIS COULD LED ON TOO . THE GOLDEN KEY THAT COULD UNLOCK THE FUTURE MOVEMENT OF THE FORMATIONS THAT MIGHT BARE THE CORRECT ANALYSIS THAT MAKES THE INTEND OF WHAT WELL BE ?
IT'S YOURS TO LOOK AT AND READ AND DO THE RESEARCH THAT'S NEEDED TO FIND OUT , IF IT CAN BE OF USE IN THE WORLD OF T.A.
ALL THE VERY BEST TO YOU ALL . D-KNOX .
HELLO A R ;
ReplyDeleteADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE WAVELET THEORY , THAT'S LISTED BELOW .
IT IS APPLICABLE TO SEVERAL SUBJECTS . ALL WAVELETS TRANSFORMS MAY BE CONSIDERED FORMS OF TIME - FREQUENCY REPRESENTATIONS FOR CONTINUOUS - TIME ( ANALOG ) SIGNALS AND SO ARE RELATED TO
HARMONIC ANALYSIS .
I THINK THAT ALONE , MIGHT PEAK THE INTEREST IN SOME INDIVIDUALS , WHO GATHER HERE ABOUT'S AT THE TABLES OF A R AND TO THE TABLES DOWN AT MOREY'S , TO THE PLACE WERE LOUIE DWELLS .
OH DANNY BOY , THE PIPES , THE PIPES ARE BLOWING , FROM GLEN TO GLEN AND DOWN THE MOUNTAINS SIDE !
DIS THERE I'LL BE ------------------------------- LOVE TO D L . D-KNOX .
Yes, I did mention that in the paragraph directly under the weekly chart (first black chart on this post). But I also mentioned that in my opinion we could also debate which low to use back in the October area. So you bring up a great point. IMO, we could also switch the chart to a 'line" chart which plots closes only, and use that low. Personally I think there's a wee bit of leverage there and wouldn't be disuaded too much even if the S&P were to approach the "other" maximum of 1461.21. Hit CTRL-F and type in "be at 1434.44".
ReplyDeleteHey there katzo, haven't seen you here for a while. Welcome back. I'd ask "where've you been", but I know where you've been. You're hanging out at the right places my man, lol.
ReplyDeleteI figured someone might have mentioned it. I feel guilty for not having read that item of your commentary.
ReplyDeleteMaybe just a weeeee bit of leverage out there.
DK,
ReplyDeleteLooks like nested 1-2's?
although I hesitate to call it that way because more often than not that formation tends to blow up it seems.
EDITED ONLY TO REPAIR YOUR SECOND LINK.
ReplyDeleteMY GRANDMOTHER USED TO HOLD ME WHEN I WAS A BABY AND SING THAT SONG TO ME. YES, MY NAME IS DANNY AND YES, ALL MY ANCESTORS WERE FROM IRELAND
ReplyDeleteNormally i wouldn't let it bother me but I just deplore being attacked behind my back and on every single website where that monster thinks he can find an audience. He seems to be obsessed with me to the point where he has sent 20 insulting comments to this site, none of which got answered and all of which just automatically went into the garbage can. So he sends me personal messages via the PM system at Seeking Alpha and asks why I'm so obsessed with him. Can you believe that? It eery, almost like he's green with envy for some reason. He reminds me of the 14 year old girl who tried out for the cheer leading team and didn't quite make it. So she trashes all the pretty girls for the duration of her time in high school, thinking that would somehow make her popular. You know what I mean?
ReplyDeleteIn any case, he can't get in here and he knows perfectly well why. He's the reason I started this blog in the first place. I did not want to start it and had been avoiding starting a blog in spite of encouragement from friends at SA for two years.
I've discovered that nested 1-2's are allowed (and work) to the upside but Goldman has ruled them as non-permissible for the downside :-)
ReplyDeleteMR KNOX,
ReplyDeleteIT LOOKS LIKE THIS PERSON IS TEACHING FOURIER ANALYSIS. IT'S A WAY TO MEASURE PERIODICTY AND CYCLES IN A DATA SERIES.
THIS IMAGE IS FROM A BOOK I ONCE READ ON THE SUBJECT, AND I FOUND IT TO BE A NICE GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF WHAT FOURIER DOES.
IMAGINE A PEN ATTACHED TO THE ARM OF A PENDULUM AND A SHEET OF PAPER IS MOVING UNDERNEATH THE PEN. THE SINUSOIDAL CURVE WOULD RESULT.
THE FORMULA IS SOMETHING LIKE
Y= A * SIN [(2 * PI * TIME \ WAVE PERIOD) + THETA]
WHERE "Y" WOULD BE PRICE
BUT IT OBVIOUSLY GETS MORE COMPLICATED THAN THIS OTHERWISE PHD'S WOULDN'T BE MESSING WITH IT.
USUALLY ALL THE VARIABLES AREN'T KNOWN, THERE IS USUALLY SOME SMOOTHING OF DATA NEEDED,
AND SOMETHING CALLED AUTOCORRELATION IS CALCULATED.
I'VE EXPERIMENTED WITH FOREX INDICATORS THAT TRANSORM STOCK PRICE INTO FOURIER CURVES, BUT IT WAS ALWAYS A LITTLE TOO MUCH WORK
TO WRAP MY BRAIN AROUND (BEING AN ELLIOTICIAN, ONCE I HAVE TO COUNT PAST FIVE I HAVE PROBLEMS!).
I'M GOING TO CHECK OUT THIS GUY'S STUDIES. IT LOOKS LIKE HE IS LOCATED CLOSE TO WHERE I AM NOW. THANKS FOR SHARING THIS.
I think they have a corollary to their ruling that states
ReplyDeletewhenever I draw them on a chart price is required to violently move in the opposite direction
Once they start changing personae that is a clear sign of a mentally unstable person. And of course they try to turn it around, saying you are attacking, been through this recently. They will follow you to the end of the earth and dispute minutiae, that you used the word 'which' where the word 'that' should have been used. They are after argument, facts or research does not matter.
ReplyDeleteAR -
ReplyDeleteRemember that AMZN chart you posted with the triangle? Of course it resolved violently to the upside (I guess a PE of 137 was too low, who knew?). And of course a PE of 820 was to low for LNKD, so GS upgraded them to a buy this morning, shoving that one up my ass as well.
Markets down, but tech is flying (BIDU, LNKD, NFLX, etc). Who is buying this crap?
Aussie looks to me like it wants to break down
ReplyDeleteYay!
ReplyDeleteMY HARD DRIVE CRASHED RECENTLY SO I HAD TO UNINSTALL META TRADER, SO I DON'T HAVE ANY EXAPLES OF IT.
ReplyDeleteTHIS IS FROM A FOREX FORUM THAT I USED TO READ TO GET INDICATORS.
THE IDEA IS TO CATCH THE UPSWING OR THE DOWNSWING OF THE CYCLE. I WAS REALLY INTO CHAOS THEORY A FEW YEARS BACK, SO I USED TO COMBINE IT WITH
A HURST FRACTAL INDEX INDICATOR.
THERE WAS ONE KEY PROBLEM WITH THE FOURIER TRANSFORM INDICATOR, HOWEVER. EVERYONE I TRIED WOULD "REPAINT" THE DATA. THAT IS, AS TIME WENT,
THE PREVIOUS SECTIONS OF THE CURVE WOULD CHANGE WITH NEW DATA. THEY RECALCULATE ALL THE DATA CONSTANTLY.
SOMETIMES IT WOULD BE SUBTLE AND SOMETIMES IT WOULD BE SEVERE, BUT THE CURVES WAS ALWAYS CHANGING.
I FINALLY GOT SICK OF IT.
SOME PEOPLE ON THESE FORUMS WOULD BRAG ABOUT THEIR CUSTOM ALGORYTHIMS THAT WERE SUPER SENSITIVE AND DISCRETE BUT OF COURSE THEY NEVER SHARED THEM.
PERHAPS DR. PINSKY HAS SOME UP WITH A BETTER METHOD?
DK your chart work has been really, really, impressive this week (as always)!
ReplyDeleteI think there's a better one yet... moving averages, lol.
ReplyDeleteHEY BROTHER ;
ReplyDeleteWELL A SMALL WORLD DANNY BOY ; GOOD FOR YOU , NOTHING LIKE A IRISH GRAND MOTHER . THEY LOVE CHILDREN AND KNOW HOW TO CARE FOR THEM .
SOME OF MINE WENT TO THE OLD SOUTH IN THE 1830'S , THEY DID VERY WELL FOR THEMSELVES , MY OLD GREAT, GREAT GRAND FATHER FROM ERIN , WENT TO MISSISSIPPI , HE WAS LATER KILLED LEADING HIS TROOPS AT GETTYSBURG , WHERE HIS TWO OLDEST SONS WERE KILLED ALSO.
THEN MY GREAT GRAND MOTHER BORN IN 1850 , THEN LOST HER MOTHER IN 1865 , AND THEN THE PLANTATION AT THE POINT OF UNION BAYONETS .
SHE LIVED TO BE 91 AND LOVED TO DANCE AND SING THE OLD SONGS . SHE LATER WENT TO OKLAHOMA , WHERE SHE MARRIED A MAN WHO HAD A 55, 000 ACRE RANCH , SHE SOLD IT IN 1925 .
ERIN GO BRAGH . D-KNOX.
Yeah sometimes its just best to keep things simple.
ReplyDeleteThose Forex forums are filled with two kinds of people - rocket scientists & porn addicts. It's a deadly combination sometimes
a few weeks ago i noticed that gold silver and the Aud were all close to natural Gan levels....1800,36.00 and 10800...sure enough all 3 put in tops around those levels.Looking at numbers can be a great headsup sometimes and never ceases to amaze !
ReplyDelete"My grandfather shot me once, Johnny. Once...". Anyone guess THAT movie reference? ;-)
ReplyDeleteI had totally forgotten about it and didn't keep a record of it. But I found it lying on the floor in the last "pub" where you and I got pissed that night, lol.
ReplyDeleteIt was this one. What's interesting is that pattern I showed as an example on the left side of the chart. It often happens that in the 3rd quartile of a beautiful symmetrical triangle like that, that it will often break out as a 'deke-out' (in this case higher) and then will turn around and head in the direction it was supposed to, which is the same direction that it entered the triangle from... in this case lower. But if it doesn't happen in that 3rd quartile then it's probably something else, like maybe an 'abc' forming.
I'm sorry about that Lapwolf, I was hoping it would break to the downside as any stock should that's priced at 137 times earnings. But it's still totally possible that if we ignore that triangle now, AMZN is just forming the 'c' of an 'abc' higher... not quite finished its upward correction. I'm pullin' for ya man.
You're describing it exactly. They're a waste of time. Thanks bud.
ReplyDeleteHELLO GREENFACE :
ReplyDeleteYES , THIS DR. PINSKY ; SEEMS TO BE INTERESTED IN VERY HIGH DEGREES OF MATHEMATICAL FORMULATIONS OF A ESOTERIC NATURE .
DR. PINSKY SEEMS TO BE AN INDIVIDUAL , WHO HAS AN INTEREST IN A VARIETY OF SUBJECTS THAT BORDER ON ECONOMIC OR INVESTMENT AREA'S , THAT MIGHT BE OF INTEREST TO THOSE OF US WHO WOULD BE ABLE TO USE HIS RESEARCH .
I HEARD SOMETHING ABOUT THIS DOCTOR AND THOUGHT I WOULD TRY( ANSWER DOT COM ) AND SEE IF THEY HAD ANY THING ON THIS INDIVIDUAL , AND BINGO , THERE HE IS AND A LOT OF WHAT HE DOES RESEARCH ON .
THE WAVELETS, ARE JUST A SMALL PART OF THE AREAS HE HAS AN INTEREST IN .
GLAD YOU ENJOYED THE COMMENT . I AM LATER GOING BACK AND DO SOME CHECKING ON THE OTHER AREAS , ONE THAT YOU MENTION , THE FOURIER ANALYSIS . I UNDERSTOOD THAT PRINCIPLE SOME YEARS AGO , BUT NEED TO REFRESH MY OLD BRAIN AS IT'S BEEN TO MANY YEARS AGO . ha ha ha ha .
ALL THE BEST TO YOU IN YOUR RESEARCH GREENFACE . D-KNOX .
Yes I've read it... it's called the "Greenface Denial Paragraph". The good news is that that clause runs out on Dec. 21, 2012. I'd heard a rumor that after that date it would no longer matter, lol.
ReplyDeleteThats funny.My first job was working for a Dutch cocoa and coffee broker !
ReplyDeleteFriggin' newbies, anyway...
ReplyDelete(My family has been here since 1709. Palatine Immigration. Third ship.)
DK seems a bit confused at the moment about that one too. As Greg points out, that one's a beast. Here's the daily chart on the Aussie from the currencies post. There's a chart list there for easy reference, although the charts are fairly bare. I don't do wave counts because I don't particularly like a science where I'm proven wrong 97% of the time. I've dolled up the daily Aussie a bit this morning in an attempt to give my two cents worth in hopes it might help.
ReplyDeleteThat sounds like my method for controlling the weather: Whenever I water the lawn and/or garden, it WILL rain within 24 hours.
ReplyDeleteDo you trade the Kiwi?
ReplyDeleteSeems pretty easy. If SPY breaks the 3/21 15 minute candle high at 10:45 am, then we are likely going higher. Until then, trend is down.
ReplyDeleteI recall you mentioning that in the past. What did you do... trade futures?
ReplyDeleteI'm not kidding, at one time I had 100% control over the entire real estate market in this city of 1 million. All I had to do to make the market soar was to sell my house. If I wanted the market to tank, I bought one. I'm not kidding. I did it 4 times. I got so good at it that any time I sold my home my friends hurried out and bought a second home for themselves. I made a lot of friends rich that way.
ReplyDeleteSPY broke that midpivot. I am outta dollar longs and got a feeler long AUD/USD position here. Waiting to see if this low holds for a short term trade.
ReplyDeleteMaybe just to close the gap, no? It could still be forming an 'abc' upward correction as it heads toward that gap. It's probably my bias that is coming up with that idea... I honestly don't know.
ReplyDeleteI firmly subscribe to that idea. Seriously, people who come up with their own "analogues" and "algorithms" and "magic formulas" and try to convince the world that they alone have the holy grail find, 100% of the time, that the next time those algos for some reason didn't work and have to be tweaked... every single time. I don't say that for the reason that they're too complicated for me... they aren't. But for the simple reason that I honestly don't believe there is any such thing as reliable repeatability in cycles, nor algos, nor analogs nor mating with one's wife. What it really boils down to is how many beers one has for breakfast... that's where the key to success or failure is I think.
ReplyDeleteBeen awhile since I've seen it but I believe it's this movie
ReplyDeleteGreat spoof of the old Cagney movies
Toppa the world Ma!
You are correct! The movie is Johnny Dangerously, starring Michael Keaton. One of the best spoofs ever...
ReplyDeleteYes. It could turn into other things (bunch of 3s for a triangle, or some crazy flat for big move down), but I generally don't think about those things as the 4 doesn't hurt and the other scenario is likely and what the stop is for. So, if I see 3 waves down and then we break the wave 2 high (without a 5th wave down), I think trend is up until they bust it. Obviously nothing is a given.
ReplyDeleteI generally trade USD, NZD, AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, and JPY. With respect to JPY, I do so velly carefully.
ReplyDeleteNever met the Magix guy, but kewl story. Synchronicity. Proves that linear perceptions of time and space are not real and we are able to bridge those perception boundaries (axis mundi?) intuitively, if we just listen.
Poetry corner
ReplyDeleteI must go down to the sea againTo the lonely sea and the skyI left my vest and socks there,I wonder if they're dry ?S.Milligan
Wow, that's pretty impressive that you know about the third ship. My family came here because of the potato famine in the 1840's. The population of Ireland was 8 million at the time and most of those had had their land stolen from them by the British who were pretty mean in those days. Why they're still in Northern Ireland is beyond me. In any case, the population was reduced to only 3 million. It's back to about 6.5 now including the north.
ReplyDeleteI know the names of almost all my great, great grandparents going back as far as 1780. That one, my mother's great grandfather, was named Eddy Murphy, lol. I couldn't help myself, I just had to do some research to find out what color he was and it turned out he was green. Most record prior to that have been lost because the British burned down the library that held them in Dublin. Thankfully, the individual parishes also kept records, so with the help of professional genealogists in Ireland earlier data can still be found but it's difficult.
I've read that 3 people with my relatively rare family name were on the Titanic. 2 were young ladies who survived and 1 was a young man who worked on the ship. The young fella went down with the ship. Other research says there was only one with my family name aboard... an 18 year old girl who survived.
When my kids were little, we used to take those old nursery rhymes and change the words. Here's one my daughter got a real kick out of:
ReplyDeleteThree little kittens had lost their mittens,
and they began to cry.
What! Lost your mittens, you bad little kittens!
Find them or you shall die.
My daughter was (and still is) brilliant at doing accents. When she was about 10 she'd talk to me with the accent of a southern belle as if I were the owner of a huge plantation and she was the spoiled rotten little daughter of a wealthy plantation owner. She'd say things like "Daddy! Daddy, when do I get my own carriage Daddy?" Only she didn't use the word "carriage". She was even in Manchester, picked up that accent and then began to deploy it here in the most unlikely of places. One time we were at a drive-thru hamburger joint, she was driving and she did the entire order with that Manchester accent. It had me in stitches.
For sure. Want to hear another incredible coincidence? My brother worked at a funeral home when he was a young man. Now he owns 2 of them. In any case, there was a fellow working at the business next door who was a real pest... a nice guy but a pest. Kept bothering my brother when he was busy at work. He'd finally had enough and decided he needed a holiday. So he booked a flight to Hawaii. When the plane arrived, he found his hotel and then went out to enjoy the island. When he awoke the next morning he went out into the hallway of the hotel and began a big Sunday morning yawn and stretch. He turned his head to the right only to see that same pest doing the exact same thing. He was booked in the room next door. I've got more... I'm only getting warmed up, lol
ReplyDeleteI think the key here whether we bounce or fall is right in this EUR/USD chart.
ReplyDeletehttp://dl.dropbox.com/u/59021800/New/FXE%2030Min%202012-03-21-TOS_CHARTS.png
Lol ! Mine was by Spike Milligan,sadly deceased ,but whose grave bears the epitaph "I told you I was ill " !
ReplyDeleteI think the Euro is headed lower, at least in the longer term. But my guess is that that 10 min. chart wants to rise judging by that MACD.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XEU&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p41141815352&a=244626099
Just watched a sports news conference with Dana White. UFC is coming to Calgary in July.
ReplyDeleteYea I agree, whenever the EZ sovereign debt problems flare up again, there won't be any LTRO to stop it this time.
ReplyDeleteLet me see, what other debt problems could flare up again? Oh yeah...España. And the Spanish representatives have already openly defied the ECB and the global banking pigs in general by saying something to the effect that "If you think you're going to run us around like you ran Greece around, think again. We're announcing that despite your demands that we tighten our belts by 6% we're only going to tighten it by 4%. Screw you!" (I'm certain I have the details wrong but you get my drift... they told 'em to bugger off with the idea of bullying Spain. That was the first time any country had openly and blatantly told the ECB to screw off since Iceland. The other huge factor is that Spain is a country that is just so incredibly primed for a massive revolution as it is.
ReplyDeleteThis and Greece has more debt now than before they "defaulted." Somehow nothing has really been solved, but yet the market loves to btfd...One day the dip will turn into a 50 point dip, sometime soon...
ReplyDeleteLol... that's awesome. It reminded me of this picture:
ReplyDeleteI was cocoa assistant to the MD.Kept the position list,liaised with shipping dept and placed orders wioth the floor.One our brokers was Drexel,which was my first contact with charts.They had a girl called Jo who "did the business in the evening" funny how I still remember that, lol.
ReplyDeleteCR, I see this is a copy of a comment you'd left much earlier. You're probably wondering why it's up here and so am I. Do you want me to delete it?
ReplyDelete