Thursday, June 20, 2013

Hindenburg Omen Cluster Continues

UPDATED JUNE 19, 2013  - The Hindenburg Omen went off again today but as was the case with the recent signal on June 10th and the near miss of June 13th (below), it is yet another redundant signal since we already had a confirmed HO event 15 days ago on June 4th.  When clusters of HO signals like these begin to develop the message is more than clear... although the market is bouncing, although the VIX and VXX are showing ridiculous degrees of complacency, the markets continue to show serious degrees of polarity in that there are darned near as many stocks making new 52 week lows as there are making new highs.  How could anyone possibly have faith that the markets are going to continue to head higher from here even in the face of seemingly endless floods of liquidity courtesy of the Fed?  When the Hindenburg Omen goes off in clusters of alarms like this, it does so for a reason.  True enough, the Fed is determined not to let equities markets collapse.  But when the market internals are making it quite clear that despite the Fed's best efforts the market internals show serious weakness, the most prudent investors would take the hint and at least stand aside.

UPDATED JUNE 13, 2013  - The Hindenburg Omen came very close to going off again today but again, as was the case with the June 10th signal (below), it would have been considered as just another redundant red flag since we already had a confirmed HO event 9 days ago on June 4th.

UPDATED JUNE 10, 2013 - The Hindenburg Omen went off again today but it is a redundant signal since we already had a confirmed HO event 6 days ago on June 4th.  Nonetheless, and this is definitely worth noting, although the market has put in a bounce of sorts nothing has changed internally.  The polarity on the NYSE that the HO is concerned about is still there.

....................Original Article of June 4th Follows ....................
According to the WSJ, the official source for data regarding new 52 week highs and lows on the NYSE, with 10 minutes remaining in the trading day the final piece of the puzzle was put in place when the Hindenburg Omen issued its second signal in four days.  And with that we now have an official Hindenburg Omen event, the first since August of 2010.

As all my followers know by now, in order for an official Hindenburg Omen signal to go into the history books the HO must issue two signals within 30 trading days.  One prominent analyst declares 36 days but is ambiguous about whether that is calendar days or trading days.  This has caused some confusion regarding that rule, so here it is according to the inventor of the HO, Mr. Jim Meikka:  The rule is 30 trading days.

Therefore, last Friday's signal occurred too late to be considered as the second and confirming signal for the April 15th sighting.  With today's signal, the second in only 4 calendar days, that entire discussion is now a moot point. We can confirm that the Hindenburg Omen has just issued its first "official event" since August 2010.  There could very well be more occurrences of the HO signal tomorrow or next week or the week after that, but now that the second signal has been issued today any further alerts will be considered redundant.  They are not required and they are not taken into consideration.  All they would accomplish would be to reconfirm that the market remains very polarized.  In fact, if a serious decline were to get underway the equities markets should enter into a state where there is no more polarization because the majority of the horses will be pulling the stock wagon downhill.  Therefore any further HO signals are not only irrelevant, they are likely to stop occurring should the markets decide to head south with some authority.

As well, and this is a ruling factor, if the NYSE begins to fall from here the 50 day moving average on the NYSE will soon be turning downward which would effectively render the Hindenburg Omen incapable of issuing any further signals.  Because of the 50 day MA rule, there is actually a fairly small window of opportunity within which the HO can issue its alerts and once the MA rolls lower that window is closed.  This has always been one of the primary reasons the Hindenburg Omen goes off so seldom.  It's also the primary cause of erroneous claims by uninformed analysts that the HO had gone off when in fact it had not (because the moving average had rolled over which to the HO is like unplugging your TV set from the wall).  And by extension, it's the primary reason that the HO gets a bad name in the press, one that it absolutely does not deserve.  In fact, and you have no idea how much this irks me, feel free to click this link to visit my last report on the HO and see for yourself.  One commenter asked the damning question "How many times has this thing failed over the past 4 years?".  And the answer of course is "none".  For god's sake, it has only gone off once in the past 4 years (meaning a 'confirmed' event).

Click here for a link to the live and updating chart.

By now most of my regular followers have probably read the short article entitled "So The HO Issues A Signal.  What Happens Next?"  If you haven't read it yet, by all means feel free to hit the link and do so now.  For convenience sake, the record of what occurred in the markets following all of the previous Hindenburg Omen signals are listed below.  This data is supplied by Dr. Robert McHugh who has also compiled an excellent list of what transpired after every HO event in the past.  You can find that data here:

Major Crash - 27% probability
Selling panic of at least 10-15% - 39% probability
Sharp decline of at least 8-10% - 54% probability
Meaningful decline of at least 5-8% - 77% probability
Mild decline of at least 2-5% - 92% probability
The HO signal is an outright miss - 7.7% probability (one out of 13 times)

There's not much else to report regarding the HO, nor would I dare make any predictions about what comes next.  All we know with certainty is that the Fed has proven to be very powerful in not only saving the markets from the decline that should have kept going right on through the March 2009 low, but in driving the markets higher from there by a mind blowing 153.4% (S&P 500).  In other words, the Fed has driven the stock markets up at the rate of 24.56% per year (compounded) for 51 consecutive months now and claims this meteoric rise is due to "improving economic conditions".  Give me a break! 

To say that the recent lofty heights of equities markets around the world are way out of line and totally artificial would be the understatement of this century.  Therefore, to expect that the markets will put in a reasonably mild correction of only 3 to 5% is probably a bit on the optimistic side.  Nonetheless, a minor decline is entirely possible, at least as revealed in the HO's record book.  And in light of the obvious intentions of the meddling central banks of the world, a minor decline is possible.

To put a positive spin on the possibilities that lie ahead for the global stock markets, the record clearly shows that there is a 73% chance that a major life changing stock market event is not going to occur.  And looking at the bright side, there's a 50% chance that the decline will be no greater than 10%.  As Jim Meikka himself said "The Hindenburg Omen is poorly named."  It was not Mr. Meikka who gave this amazing indicator that title, it was his predecessor Kennedy Gammage who had been working on a similar indicator using the McClellan Oscillator as one of it's primary components.  To quote Tom McClellan:

"The ominous sounding name of this signal comes from the late Kennedy Gammage, who passed away Jan. 3, 2006, just a few months after he retired from writing The Richland Report newsletter.  Ken was one of the great proponents of the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index, and was a big reason why they came to be so well known.  The McClellan Oscillator being positive or negative is one of the criteria for a Hindenburg Omen, so it was probably out of working with that indicator that Miekka came into contact with Ken Gammage.  I suspect that the idea for the name "Hindenburg" was related to a similar signal using NH and NL called the "Titanic Syndrome" which was developed by the late Bill Ohama."

So there you have it my friends.  We should probably expect just about anything now, but it wouldn't hurt that all of us think positively and keep our fingers crossed for the "not greater than 10%" theme. Our chances are 50/50.

Wishing all of you the very best


  1. Cheers for the update, Alberta. Bernanke's arrogance and hubris is breathtaking to behold:

  2. Does anyone have the same feeling I do...that there s some sort of dirigible hanging over our heads???
    Not only that... the 7 month trendline was broken Friday at 1598(S&P)...never a good sign.
    Other than those two items--- things are fine

  3. It's nothing... just a little blimp on the radar :-)

  4. lol....well if it s on the radar,it s still airborne---for now.Interesting market isn t it?I thought there would be an early week comeback in stocks---we were pretty oversold---now what happens will show whether the correction(6-7%)is over or not.The Fed is trying to jawbone down interest rates.If they don t succeed and we jump back above 2.66 on the 10 year....its more downside.This reversal from the selloff was is it sustainable.We ll find out if S&P goes past 1640.Is it possible this was it for the downside????

  5. AR

    More info at
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  6. Congratulations!

    We've made it to the top!
    The top was in May, but now we can see it more clearly.
    And since then we've had 1-2, i-ii.

    The waiting was the hardest part.
    The rest ... watching an impulsive C or 3 wave unfold, will be easy.

    Cheers, and get ready for the ride of our lives!

  7. Here's a little snippet:

    A ultra-bearish investor bought 108,000 VIX August calls $28 when the guage was around 18.
    This cost 0.60 or $6.5M.

    The Barron's guy's complacency shines thru: "VIX would have to rise by an extraordinary amount and stocks would have to experience an extraordinary decline that seems highly unlikely, even when considering worries the Fed may taper sooner than expected, or even if you think earnings season will challenge consensus vie that the economy is imporving. But who knows, maybe the mysterious investor is on to something."

    What a bunch of hooey. The mysterious investor is on to the fact that we've had 1-2,i-ii off the top, and iii comes next. Easy peasy lemon squeezy.

  8. What's going to be the catalyst????Rising interest rates....Japan,China???All of those LOOK like they re calming down at the moment.The S&P failed to get above the 50 day on that enough?

  9. 1. The QE ending is one catalyst. The big boys have been selling off risky assets ever since hints came out in May. They ONLY bought because the promise of future 85B a month for an eternity eliminated risk of a correction.

    2. The waves down have started, no catalyst needed, the selling has begun. S&P 1-2,i-ii with ii failing at exactly 61.8%, it's all a sign that the top is in. A wave iii soon will be another catalyst. For all those people who thought there was no risk, they'll be leaving after iii.

    3. Yes, Japan. First the usdjpy might get to 108, but then minor 3 will be over, and minor 4 will involve yen strengthening, and the carry trade unwind, and they'll sell everything they bought funded with yens.

    4. Then when Japan loses control of bond rates and their currency, capital will get very scared. Risk very off then.

    5. Bond rates are rising everywhere, and emerging market currencies are crashing. Rising rates will be one catalyst.

    6. Strengthening dollar .. when it spikes in a wave 3, that'll wipe out dollar carry trades.

    7. All of the above, and selling begets more selling. Gold shocked people. That was a safe haven. Bonds were safe havens. Stocks were safe havens. Emerging markets bonds were safe havens. The dollar was supposed to weaken. People are going to be very scared and confused when nothing goes as they thought it would.

    8. People are ready to get out this time, nobody wants to sit through a third stock market crash.

  10. I read what you blogged....I m on a wait and see.95% cash as of 2 weeks ago.Has anyone noted the similarity of the 1987 chart to this year???Instead of October though...the pattern has been compressed to June/July.Worth watching.1987 charts showed S&P couldn t get above 50 day and proceeded to collapse.But the odds of an exact repeat situation are very unlikely.Back then interest rates were rising,as I remember---the catalyst.Thanks for the info...I ll be defensive for the next month or so.

  11. Hahaha ... that's funny!

  12. Yes, be vigilent! This could get ugly in a hurry.

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  14. That "nightmare scenario" for bears actually has some fairly nice market structure underlying it. ;-(

    Not that it is my favored scenario though.

  15. USDJPY:
    The last hurrah!

    So we may be entering the (iii) of the v of the 5 of the minor 3 wave. Target 108.
    Shocking, I know. Glad to see DK has a similar destination.
    I don't know what this means for stocks.
    Maybe they have to complete 1 minor down and 2 minor up in that time. To catch up with many other FX pairs, notably EURUSD and GBPUSD and AUDUSD which are all in various 1-2's.

  16. And the bigger picture possibility -- Minor 3 of Intermediate 1.

    Although Darkestknight has this minor 3 as a C wave with a new low coming, so there are two divergent paths down there at that big channel line, and one will win out.
    If Minor 5 wins out, Intermediate 3 is gonna be a doozy. Perhaps that's when Japan loses control of its bonds and currency and capital flees Japan.


  17. Did NYSE hit your 77% probability area for the HO?

  18. Wouldn t that mean a huge risk on move in the equity markets.Any idea what kind of timeframe this would be in?

  19. Quite honestly, I don't understand how the stocks are correlated with USDJPY.

    Seems like there are some cross-currents with dollar carry trade, and yen carry trade. But I don't really follow that correlation -- just USDJPY really.

    As far as how long a 5th of a 5th wave would take, I would estimate that since it's already been 12 days in this wave, maybe 23ish more would make v 45 days and iii was 63 days and i was 13. Given the megaphone shape, v will be longer than i, and take longer, but not as long as iii in time or price.

  20. 1611 looks like a big resistance area.

  21. Thanks for the guesstimate.

  22. Nope. So far the decline has only dropped far enough to classify it as being the size of decline that we'd expect 92% of the time. Since the day the HO gave it's confirming signal (June 4th) making it only the second confirmed signal since Aug 2010, the NYSE has only dropped from 9320 on the day the signal was given, to the June 25th low of 8989. That's only a decline of 3.7%. But who knows... maybe that's it, or maybe there's a ton of decline ahead of us.

    Considering the strength of the rally off that June 25th low, the number of new highs is still pretty damned anemic. I would be surprised if the HO goes off again in a day or three if it weren't for one key factor... if the market turns lower tomorrow the HO is gonna get switched off and this time probably for good. That's because of the fact that the 50 day MA on the NYSE must be rising. If the market falls tomorrow, it ain't gonna be rising no mo.

  23. Thank you. I didn't know for sure where to measure from. Appreciate the data!

  24. Out of control ?

    By printing money
    it is hoped to:
    –Replenish bank reserves
    –Hold interest rates low,
    to moderate interest payments on treasury loans,
    and to encourage home purchases
    –Raise the stock market.

    By keeping rates low
    and paying interest on bank reserves
    the banks have been successfully induced
    to withold commercial loans
    thereby holding the economy in check
    and so, in spite of printing,
    holding money velocity low
    and so, keeping some pressure on inflation.


    Jun 27, 2013
    "the Treasury sold $35 billion in five-year notes
    to the lowest demand since September 2009,
    with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.45 times."

    "The April TIC report showed
    a shocking drop in foreign ownership of US government debt."

    "the selloff [in the bond market]
    has now reached the status of the worst ever bond market selloff
    (of 90 days or less)
    in percentage terms.

    "Since May 2nd 2013,
    10-year yields have risen from 1.626% to 2.609%,
    a 98.3bp selloff
    which means that yields have risen 60.5%
    in less than two months"


    --"There are more than $12 trillion paper dollar assets
    (stocks, bonds and cash)
    held by foreigners outside the U.S."

    if this is the start of 'recognition'
    rates will substantially rise

    also, as

    --"the global derivatives
    have increased in size from $100 trillion in 1998,
    to $1.2 quadrillion today."
    and the majority of those derivatives are interest rate swaps
    and that the banks have sold the fixd rate,
    and hold the variable rate

    the effect of rate rise, on the banks,
    on which the world economy relies,
    will be catastrophic,

    and the expense to the treasury
    will be far greater than tax income will cover.

    Except for a miracle
    this implies immanent western world
    deflation on bank collapse
    or hyperinflation on attempts to print
    to cover bank or treasury payments
    or simultaneously, both.

  25. The ECB came out with extremely bullish commentary today and the European stock markets are up over 2%.Our futures are nearly 200 points up pending the jobs report.If that is in the ballpark of 160,000(not too hot-not too cold)....we will take out the 50 day with ease and start a march up to new highs.The correction would be officially over.

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  27. Well its early....(10:22 am)but S&P couldnt get above 1624(key SMA) and stay thete.10 year at 2.70%.Dow was up over 100--now reversed and in the red.Long way to go today.If it winds up back over ll be a breakout.

  28. Just wondered if albertarocks has a thought on the chances of more HOs in the near future?You were saying if the market went down a couple days ago---it would probably be neutered for a while.How about now???Thanks.

  29. Sorry for the delay in getting back to you. You're quite right, I was saying that "if the market turns lower from here the HO would get switched off". But it didn't turn lower at that time so as of this moment the HO is still enabled.

    However, if you click the link that's beneath the chart at the top of this post, I draw your attention to the price action of 50 days ago, and 49 days ago, and 48 days ago. As you can see, back then the market was shooting up smartly. So today the market has to perform at least as well in order to remain above the orange line (which marks the price of 50 days ago). Going forward from here, that orange line will keep rising (except for the occasional day when it will pullback) and the current price action needs to remain above it in order for the HO to remain on-line.

    So the main theme here is still that "if the market pulls back from here, the price action of 50 days ago was still "up", so the HO is in danger of switching off at almost any time now. That's not to say it will of course.

  30. Much humble opinion thinks there are more HOs to come.Keep us all posted and thanks for the response(slightly delayed).

  31. Heard an explanation for Japanese selling US bonds.
    I guess after the yen collapsed 30% they needed to rebalance their portfolio of bonds.
    So they had to sell US bonds, since that had grown as a % of the portfolio due to currency strength.
    Bizarre unintended consequences, eh?

    Also, Indian bonds are being sold, and they are rising interest rates to keep loans from defaulting because of their currency crash. And THAT could pop their housing bubble in India. Derivatives markets were fingered in the blame for these fast moving markets in India.

    It is looking like the central banks are losing control ...

  32. Hello again, 'Rocks. I noticed that we had a confirmed signal on June 4. 30 trading days and counting. I would be grateful for your opinion on the likely trigger(s) of any downturn. Let's face it, there is no shortage of candidates. Housing, consumer spending, toxic assets, europe and massive debts.

  33. Just wanted to check in and leave a little info about something I m going to be watching around July 27th---when the gov't releases data on margin debt.Sounds mundane but definitely worth checking out in its predictive qualities of a crash 3-6 months out.As of had reached a new high for this bull market(since 2009).The June numbers had dipped slightly.If the trend down continues---it s meant a recession and stock market drop of large percentages within the afforementioned time frame.If the debt goes up in July...we re in the clear again.It s all supposedly a sign of greed and a cyclical top...I buy it---can t argue with the charts.

  34. For those who have missed it, SafeHaven published my next to last in an exclusive "Let's Talk" series of articles.

    The prize goes to the person who can guess what the last in the series will deal with. ;-)

  35. My thoughts:

    Peace and they Omzzz my Bros!

  36. There have been a few crash indicators going off at various websites since March or so....many claim 100% in predicting crashes.HO,of course doesn t predict crashes-but potential of one.I wonder this year if Uncle Ben didn t have his QE dowsing the market in easy money---that we would ve already crashed by now.That in fact...he has prevented one from happening.Not to say he can work the magic indefinitely....but many a crash indicator has been thwarted so far.Is it possible we are immune to a crash until Ben tapers???

  37. Is it possible we cannot have a "crash"while Bernanke is flooding the system with QE???Its like a vaccine,in a way.Normally crashes occur and the Fed does what its doing NOW!!!This has been pre-emptive.Just my humble opinion that we wont see a crash til after the tapering is wrapped up.

  38. Things looking short term a-ok in Europe. Just posted a couple of charts
    and comments in the comments section of my latest post. We might be still another couple of weeks away from that big bad shorting opportunity I'm expecting.

  39. Perhaps that is true.
    But just the mention of tapering really took bonds out to the woodshed for a beating. US 10 years went from like 134 to 124. 7%. That would be like the SP500 losing 118. And so Ben had to say the words "very accomodative" 100 times. The spike in yields must have frightened him. But they are still going to taper, but try to be very open about it. Lets face it, they will taper, and the market is not going to like it. Right now I think the market acts like IT forced Ben to back track, but I think the market will just be disappointed later. And the 10Y bond market has started a big wave down, doubt it gets above 130 ever again (i).

  40. Ah, well they won another round, those central bankers.
    But the war is not over yet.

  41. USDJPY:

    Still a valid 5th wave count on the table. And some others too of course, to keep things interesting, and to keep us all on our toes. If this is correct, implications are still for another 800 pips to 108.6. Hard to believe at times. And Thursday night's raid of the stops starting with that manipulated crash of Nikkei 3.5% in an hour, and most of it was recovered. All before the election this weekend which is expected to give more power to the Abe henchmen. Just in time for an expected 3 of v of 5 of (5) of Minor 3. Or not. And if so, maybe that means a couple more weeks or a month or so before everything hits the fan.



  42. AUDUSD now needs a wave ii.

    So that would argue for another month or so before The TOP in the market also.
    And, interestingly, they said record Aussie shorts now ... highest since 2007.
    Get ready for some AUDUSD short squeeze stew.

  43. The last article in the series, 'Let's
    Talk Entries
    ', was published last night. Don't miss the Addendum in the comments section!

  44. AR,

    What is the HO status? I think you are going to get a big sell into October or December (likely December). It is still active?

  45. Hi SJ. I apologize for the delay in getting back to you, but man, what a busy past couple of weeks I've had. For one thing, my son got married on Saturday and the wedding was held at the most incredible venue I've ever seen (well, the second most incredible one). It was out on a country estate in the foothills just south of Calgary that was 100 acres and that featured outstanding views. They got married in a fabulous quaint little chapel out in the country that I hadn't even heard of. But the bottom line is that because the wedding was held on an acreage where a wedding had never been held before, there was a ton of effort required by family members in order to get it set up for a wedding. I can honestly say that it was probably the most incredibly awesome wedding I've ever been to in my life. But unfortunately, I've been so busy over the past couple of weeks that I haven't even had time to visit my own blog, let alone look at markets. The odd Tweet and that was it. Sorry about that.

    I'm pretty sure the HO hasn't gone off since the last signal that I reported here, but today for example it's getting relatively close once again. At this very moment there are 90 new 52 week highs and 40 new lows. If we ended up with 86 lows (which won't happen today), we would have another HO signal. I'm not sure I'll even report on it though because really, what the hell is the use? The bankers are f'king with the markets and will continue to f'k with the markets until they lose control. True enough, when the market internals (as determined by the HO) betray the fact that the market is very polarized we know the market is on very shaky ground. But again... what does that matter when we have a global banking mafia that is insane and 'they're' calling the shots? I'd be surprised if you can't sense that I'm fed up with all of it. I'm sure you 'do' sense it because you're a sharp cookie. But I basically turned my back on the markets a couple of months ago and only glance at the charts every once in a while just out of some sort of perverse interest. I still believe it's all going to fall apart in a gigantic deflationary collapse but I'm sick and tired of watching the markets behave in a world where the bankers have distorted reality to the extent that I don't even recognize it as even remotely resembling a "market" anymore.

    On top of that, I've become very, very busy with marketing over the past couple of months. It's actually been far more interesting and exciting to make a move "back to reality" than it has been to suffer in a world I don't understand... one where 2+2 = anything but 4. Besides, it does my heart good to be involved in helping my wonderful son expand his business. It's so nice to be back close to him again. I hope you understand and will forgive me if I don't even report on the next HO event.

    I wish you nothing but the best SJ.

  46. Fed Up With The FedAugust 5, 2013 at 3:33 PM

    Looks Like H.O. Today.

  47. Good eye... yes the HO did go off today. With the Canadian markets closed I was enjoying the long weekend instead of driving myself nuts watching these wacky markets. But you're quite right. It was one of the stranger HO signals I've seen though because the number of new highs AND new lows were both higher than usual for an HO 'signal day'. Nonetheless, all conditions were met. I was just investigating it late this evening, was surprise by it to be honest, but came here to report on it... and saw your comment. And I appreciate your comment a great deal... nothing like a friendly confirmation from somebody I've never seen comment here before. Many thanks. And welcome.

    all the best!

  48. That didn t take long.I thought there d be some fairly soon.Now we can test my theory about QE negating a possible crash or severe correction.Whats everyone think?

  49. Have we had one or two H.O.s(monday,tuesday)as I ve read elsewhere?

  50. Just read in the WSJ we had three H.O.s this week.Albertarocks whats the latest?How does it look?

  51. This is an old article now LML. I've been reporting on the HO every day in the latest article which you can find here: