Saturday, March 24, 2012

Where Friends Gather - March 24th, 2012

We've moved on to the next pub folks.  This one has run out of suds.  Please feel free to join us at the new digs


The previous pub session (March 18th) was located here and we enjoyed some great discussion back there about some really good charts, so feel free to revisit that post at any time.  We'll bring some of those charts forward if required.

Well it seems that this room is catching on and the right kind of people are showing up here.  So here we are at a fresh pub since the previous one was getting very clogged with conversation.  That's wonderful.  I'm glad some of you have accepted the opportunity to exchange ideas in a friendly room.  The whole idea here is to help each other.  We act like a team here.  Those who opt to disrupt the team's good karma or whose goal it is to attack others won't last long in here.  Other than that, you're free to post whatever you like (within reason... you know what I mean).  I'd thrown out the idea that some of your own charts can also appear up here in the main post, but I'm starting to think that we had better restrict those ones to what is most current.  I mean, our goal here is to trade well tomorrow and all week, so I think charts that might help us do that should be up here.  Also, I've opened myself up to creating disappointment for some if I don't put their chart up here.  So we'll play that one day at a time.  I don't mean to offend anybody so maybe that wasn't such a good idea.  So I'll start if off with the first chart below which, as you can see, looks eerily like a nice frosty pint of beer.

Potentially this could develop into one heck of a nice classic H&S pattern.  Almost perfect at the moment.  Click here for a live and updating version.  If you can't see the annotations, here's the print version.  And a much closer look.

We've moved on to the next pub folks.  Feel free to join us there.

The NDX is the only major index remaining with a gap beneath.  Click here for an updating print version.

S&P Daily - This chart was taken from the article that discussed what seemed impossible back in January,  "But What If?".  Click here for the live and updating version.

$DAX DAILY - The action in the $DAX is looking toppy now.  But really, we need to see more.  For example, if those moving averages roll lower (and the first one has), we still need to see that lower trend line be broken.  And then there's the issue of getting below the level identified by the horizontal red line.  Click here for a live and updated chart.

Just a few levels of importance.  Click here for a live "print" version that covers a longer time span and shows 2 trend lines.

AAPL is abandoning the NDX today.  This is a VERY bad sign if it continues.  Click here for a live and updating chart.




 .................

499 comments:

  1. If only trading these markets was as easy as finishing a nice cold one.

    I for one would love to see a good linear versus log chart comparison. These never fail to put things in perspective and extreme deviations from the mean usually show up a bit differently. I personally don't have a good current one, but if anybody does, or AR can find one, I would love to see it.

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  2. Now I have to get a cold drink, its YOUR fault.
    --

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  3. Are you referring to any particular market?  Because there's an outstanding comparison on the BDI post if you'd care to see that one.

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  4. LOL, yeah I have to admit I'm a bit of a skank that way.  Welcome back bud.

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  5. I am always open to suggestion. I suppose I am a bit closed minded in thinking always first of the S&P 500, but BDI would be interesting. Amazingly though, the market has lost all correlation (seemingly) with that index. Just like the EUR/USD breakdown caused the last flash crash, chances are that will in no way indicate what will lead to the next one. Maybe a continued deterioration in Shanghai, elevation of 10 year yield, something not even thought of yet?

    Would definitely care to see the BDI POST, thanks!

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  6. Just click the link above.  I make all the links in bold so any time you see those bold's, they're usually a link.

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  7. Scotty here...Good afternoon AR. This is the most sobering pub crawl I've ever been on. Am I doing something wrong?...LOL...Screen name change is the result of losing a bet...but at least I still have most of my hair.

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  8. Which Scotty?  1911?   Lol, for how long are you going to be known as Nostradumass?

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  9. yup 1911 will return upon the commencement of Gringo-Persian hostilities. I'll gladly get used to the screen name versus the alternative. I'll work on the un-sobering activities as soon as I finish the machine job I'm running...Thank goodness for CNC mills.

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  10. AR, why do we have to go to a new pub? Is there some kind of limit on our posts on your format? I know you are liking everyone's partcipation.

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  11. Gonna take a long hike into the redwoods, oaks and streams... Everyone enjoy their weekend and get outside to commune with Nature!

    Be well...

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  12. A long USD/JPY play here on Sunday night is an interesting thought to me.  I am not sold on it, just pondering it and throwing it out the currency guys in case they gots a thought on it.

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  13. Character is higher than intellect. A great soul will be strong to live as well as think. Ralph Waldo Emerson

    Let's keep it simple for now. Same thing happened at the July 2011 top

    http://www.futuresmag.com/2008/11/17/gartleyrsquos-gap-theory-explained

    H.M. Gartley states in his book, “Profits in the Stock Market” (1935, Lambert-Gann Publishing): “If a breakaway gap is covered in several days by a rally or decline which halts short of the previous minor bottom or top, another gap in the same area may be expected.” Gartley’s point is that if a breakaway gap gets filled shortly after appearing and the previous top or bottom is not taken out, then expect to see another gap in the same general area. This action indicates that the previous trend has reversed.

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  14. Great post and information.  Emerson has played a roll in my life. Love the quote.  Here is one of my favorite passages.

    "Trust thyself: every heart vibrates to that iron string. Accept the place the divine providence has found for you, the society of your contemporaries, the connection of events. Great men have always done so, and confided themselves childlike to the genius of their age, betraying their perception that the absolutely trustworthy was seated at their heart, working through their hands, predominating in all their being. And we are now men, and must accept in the highest mind the same transcendent destiny; and not minors and invalids in a protected corner, not cowards fleeing before a revolution, but guides, redeemers, and benefactors, obeying the Almighty effort, and advancing on Chaos and the Dark."

    -Self-Reliance 

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  15. Ah, new pub.
    re-posting reply to iriquois
    Over the next 2-10 years I really do see much higher PMs & lower AUD.
    Why?
    I could present EW charts, but these are open to subjective interpretation. I could bring up the hyperinflation  v deflation debate, but there are far too many variables at play to avoid getting in a tangled mess.
    No, I cannot give you anything more concrete than this: our financial system is broken. 
    It is my firm belief that we are reaching the point where the continued application of band-aids (money-printing, bailouts, debt "re-structuring") will no longer work. I know many from Daneric's are expecting the worst, but I don't think we really know what 'the worst' is. I think the total collapse in the global financial system is a real possibility and be far worse than we could imagine.
    Over the event horizon, previous rules & correlations may no longer apply.
    Gold simply has to play a part in a future global currency. There is no other viable alternative. The likes of BB, Buffet, Big Banks,(& maybe even Big Bird & Boris Becker) know this & that is why they see gold as a big threat to their oligopoloy. Once the US & Europe become weakened & China has more economic clout, we'll see gold take it's rightful place in the new world order.
    And what would happen if, say Iran dropped a nuke?  Gold up, Aussie down? You bet.
    Sorry for the rant. I suppose I am a bit of a gold bug, but only because I see the writing clearly on the wall.
    Anyway, my main point is this: The usual 'rules/correlations' may soon no longer apply. 
    I could go on....lol
    DK

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  16. USDJPY..
    maybe in (4) now, but could be in for a few weeks of consolidation?
    http://screencast.com/t/HkntWjV3hz

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  17. Inverse head and shoulders
    Also
    the first move down from the Mar 14 top was three waves. It could have conceivably been a double zz with y =2*w

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  18. Silver, the devil's metal, on the verge of a breakout to somewhere, but which way?

    http://silversaxena.blogspot.com/2012/03/silver-plunge-coming.html

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  19. ...and while I'm at it...
    I was discussing AUDJPY risk on:off correlation with AR & others recently.
    AR said " I see no reason why this should change."
    But I'm saying, 'I see every reason why soon this may change.'
    This may have been true for the past 40 or so years.
    but we have USDJPY potentially at a multi-decade low & looking for MAJOR reversal.
     I am trying to look beyond the obvious trading opportunity.  Why is it at a multi-decade turning point? Why are other vehicles maybe at multi-decade inflection points?
    Something BIGGER is afoot, that's why. 
    Everything about to be turned on it's head. 
    Call  it a what you wiil: P3, Kondratieff Winter, Greater Depression, DK's LongDarkNight.
    What you have witnessed to be The Norm for 40 years may no longer hold true. 
    THAT is the point.

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  20.  or Japans debt crisis about to move centre stage aka Kyle Bass scenario ?

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  21. On this blog you will find a contrarian view with more indicators on a gold chart that point in the opposite direction..
    http://goldversuspaper.blogspot.com
    I am no gold bug ..but I have studied charts all day and this appears to me that we have just finished ew abc down to be
    followed with wave up....just sayin

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  22. I actually just saw that. Frankly, I think the pattern is bullish, I'm just pointing out that IF it fails, it could do so heavily. The real question is, whenever the stock market corrects, will the PMs be immune?

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  23. fnar, fnar
    lol, it's Finbar Saunders & his Double Entendres!

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  24. http://silversaxena.blogspot.com/2012/02/japan-black-swan-rising.html

    Yup, it certainly seems like Japan could be about to inflate its away into the stratosphere...which would as DK says essentially make the historical correlation of AUD/JPY worthless since a weak Yen would most likely cause the unwind of the Yen carry trade while simultaneously sending all JPY based crosses soaring.

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  25. Emerson was one of three American transcendentalists: Emerson, Whitman and Thoreau. Deep wisdom in these men. Beautiful that they happened to be American. These are the inspired teachers of New Thought.

    http://websyte.com/alan/parlsum.htm

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  26. Will the pms be immune? 

    The answer is ....no.

    Now, where is my prize for the correct answer?
    --

    yours..will accept payment in shiny coins ;)

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  27. Thanks.  I see a bull flag on my visitor traffic chart, ;)  so..thats a good thing.
    -
    As ever, trying to add some ideas into the community, after being a mere lurker for 3 years. More than anything, am constantly battling to keep throwing out bullish, as well as the usual 'doomer' charts. Balance is everything.

    *It does seem a VERY quiet weekend so far, almost a little spooky

    ohhh, i just noticed, the clocks just jumped ahead an hour!  Summer comes to Europe.

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  28. HELLO DIVINELOVE ;

    I NOTED YOURSELF AND OTHERS , WHO MADE COMMENTS ABOUT THE HUMAN SOUL .

    YOU MENTIONED OF THOSE WHO SPOKE TOO THE HUMAN CONDITION  AS;  EMERSON , WHITMAN , AND THOREAU .

    DAVID , I BELIEVE MADE COMMENTS IN MANY OF HIS BEAUTIFUL PSALMS THAT REFLECT THE INTER ASPECT OF A SOUL THAT IS IN THE VARIOUS DEGREE'S OF LIFE HERE WITHIN THE HUMAN BODY .

    JUST FEW EXAMPLES  ; PSALMS 71: 9 , CAST ME NOT OFF IN THE TIME OF OLD ARE; FORSAKE ME NOT WHEN MY STRENGTH FAILETH .

    PSALMS 37: 9 CEASE FROM ANGER AND FORSAKE WRATH : FRET NOT THYSELF IN WISE TO DO EVIL . VERSE 16 , A LITTLE THAT A RIGHTEOUS MAN HATH [ IS ] BETTER THAN THE RICHES OF MANY WICKED .

    PSALMS 34: 11, COME ,  YE CHILDREN , HEARKEN UNTO ME: I WILL TEACH YOU THE REVERENCE OF THE LORD . 12, WHAT MAN IS HE THAT DESIRETH LIFE, AND LOVETH MANY DAYS , THAT HE MAY SEE GOOD ?, 13, KEEP THY TONGUE FROM EVIL, AND THY LIPS FROM SPEAKING GUILE. 14 , DEPART FROM EVIL , AND DO GOOD ; SEEK PEACE , AND PURSUE IT . 15, THE EYES OF THE LORD ARE UPON THE RIGHTEOUS , AND HIS EARS ARE OPEN UNTO THEIR CRY . 16, THE FACE OF THE LORD IS AGAINST THEM THAT DO EVIL.

    LAST IS PSALMS 51 ,  A VERY IMPORTANT VERSE IS VERSE 11, FOR IN THIS VERSE IS THE VERY FIRST MENTION OF THE WORD HOLY SPIRIT , AND IT IS PRINT AS SUCH IN THE HEBREW AS WELL AS IN THE ENGLISH IN THE BIBLE. VERSE 11, CAST ME NOT AWAY FROM THY PRESENCE ; AND TAKE NOT THY HOLY SPIRIT FROM ME .
    AMEN , AMEN , AMEN .
    D-KNOX.                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

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  29. I have to do it every once in a while just to freshen things up.  The last pub ran for 5 days and collected quite a few charts plus a lot of comments.  So it gets a bit burdensome to download the page for one thing, especially if the charts start to build up.  If I left it much longer with the same 7 or 8 charts up at the top, people might start to interpret it as a blog going dead, lol.  I don't think starting a new post is going to put a damper on the participation, but just in case it was inconvenient to have left a discussion, I do provide links so people can switch back and forth between the previous pub and the new one.  Kind of so they can 'transition' into the new one in case that's helpful.  But judging by the number of comments here already today, it seems participants don't mind a fresh start every few days.  Most of the other sites provide a fresh start every single day, like clockwork.  I'm just too busy to be able to start each day with new content.  If I wanted to pretend I was a good wave counter, then I could do it.  But I aren't. :-)

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  30. Sometime after the Lehman collapse and the subsequent bailouts that 'saved the world', one economist said that people had no idea how close we came to an event that would have thrust humanity back into the dark ages.  His compatriot sitting beside him proclaimed "The dark ages?  I think you're being optimistic."

    Imagine if it were to happen, that one day we wake up to find that the entire global financial system has collapsed.  No banks.  No way to pay employees.  No method of paying for groceries because money is no longer used for anything except trying to keep your house warm by burning it.  No food deliveries because there is no way for truckers to pay for fuel.  What fuel?  There is no fuel because there is no way to pay for it.  There is no way to pay employees to refine it.  So there is no need for employees.  Now they are ex-employees who need food for their children.  Etc, etc.

    Surely, that's about the darkest most frightening scenario one could imagine.  But supposedly it's entirely possible.  But I think there would still be pockets of survival.  Especially when entities like states or cities have prepared ahead of time by creating their own currency that can be used as a method of payment.  Communes, where neighbors have pulled together to do business with each other via barter.  I don't know if any of you know who Hutterites are, but apparently they're like Amish.  The Hutterites who live up here would be the type of people who probably wouldn't even notice anything had happened, lol.  That reminds me of a time when I was about 18 and had gone to a Hutterite colony with my brother.  My bro saw a young Hutterite kid about 9 years of age and my brother asked him "So what's your name?".  The little guy said "Jacob.  My dad's the goose boss."  And little Jacob was extremely proud of that fact.

    My point being that we may have to take a multi-decade shit kicking, but I also think there are ways that communities can survive and start it all over again.  This time without the Rothchilds at the helm.  Hopefully.  There's nothing wrong with a central bank... as long as it's owned by the people of that nation (or state or province) and not by an offshore cabal of thieves.  In the meantime, what about all the starving millions who are armed and hungry?  They might pose a bit of a challenge to one's plans... and to the survival of those who 'have' planned ahead.  I could see it all evolving back into a form of 'tribalism' or communities of those sworn to loyalty to the group.  That may be the only way for a while if the poop really hit the fan like it theoretically could.  With $1.5 QUADRILLION (1,500 trillions) worth of levered dirivatives out there that the god damned greedy bankers are sitting on, you'd better believe a collapse of that magnitude is possible.  If that happens, it's really going to chap my ass because I won't be able to chat with any of you people anymore.

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  31. Some very great comments tonite.

    To Zim, thanks for the ellipse link. I will have to pay more attention to Cobra's traders chat. We all know the biological metaphor of the egg shape and its possible analogy to symmetry and equilibrium. I wonder about the story behind the ellipse. An ellipse is actually a plane intersecting a cylinder at angle in 3D space. Perhaps the pattern on a chart is tracing out a correlation or variable(s) outside of price and time, another axis. Something to dream over.

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  32. MR KNOX, THE BEST ONE IMHO PS 40

    I waited patiently for the LORD; he turned to me and heard my cry. He lifted me out of the slimy pit, out of the mud and mire; he set my feet on a rock and gave me a firm place to stand. He put a new song in my mouth, a hymn of praise to our God.

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  33. Your answer is correct.  Collect your prize below:

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  34. I'm interested in what you're saying DK.  I'm open to discussion and don't for a second insist I was right.  But I don't recall exactly what I was getting at.  Can you help me put it into context?  Was I saying that I suspect that the excellent correlation between the Aussie:Yen pair and equities should continue?  If so, I still believe that's true, but my ears are open.

    Under what scenario would you expect to see that relationship break down?  And I'm certainly not asking that question facetiously nor arrogantly because you could very well be right.  Help me out here buddy.  If you see something I don't see, I'd be more than happy to embrace it once I see the light. 

    You'd mentioned two different pairs above and I'm not sure which one you're referring to.  As I'd mentioned, if you're considering currency pairs from the perspective about whether or not they have a good correlation with equities, then I only use the Aussie:Yen for that purpose.  For one thing, the Aussie:USD isn't even really a "pair" because it's a ratio between a pure currency (the Aussie) and a basket (the USD Index).  So that isn't even a pure "pair" like the Aussie:Yen is.

    I agree totally though... that if you're referring to the unthinkable, perhaps worse than a Kondratiev winter, it's totally possible that all the metrics we're using these days might all of a sudden become a totally moot point.  Would you mind elaborating a bit more?  You're starting to scare me a wee bit here, lol.

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  35. That ultra-doom scenario is still possible of course, but I don't think (or maybe its a wistful hope) that they will let it.
    -

    Assuming the monetary system did collapse in a rapid cascade, I'd guess they'd have a plan to issue EVERYONE a set amount to keep things ticking over. Consider it a grand 'transfer payment', maybe even a set of regular payments for a limited time, whilst 'they' come up with something new.

    I'd hope they would have backup plans for such a situation, but knowing Bureaucracy (which IS the same in every country), I'd guess they still lack a full emergency system-reboot plan, almost 4 years after the initial close-call.

    Scary thoughts, especially for those in the cities where things would implode to near Mad-Max after just 4-6 days (primarily due to the 3-day average individual food reserve).

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  36. I guess the scenario where the Aussie:Yen pair would continue to correlate well with equities would be the same sort of situation we are expecting for the US dollar.  Are we going to experience a deflationary scenario or not?  If so, then the expected collapse in the global debt markets would make the USD dollar soar, right?  It would also make the Yen soar would be my guess.  If there is no debt collapse and the BOJ decides to inflate their way out, then yes, the Yen should collapse. 

    I think the key still lies in whether or not the central bankers of the world are going to be able to just inflate their way out.  Those who are expecting a big bear market in equities are of the opinion that "no, the bankers will not be able avoid a deflationary collapse".  Why then, under that scenario would Japan be able to inflate their way out when their debt situation is much worse even than that of the USA?  This is where I don't see the logic in expecting Japan to be able to inflate their way out while the USA can't.

    On the flipside of that coin though, if equities are about to explode to the upside and we're going to see oil at $250, the S&P at 1700 and $35 for a loaf of bread, absolutely I see the Yen collapsing.  The Aussie would collapse as well of course as would every other currency in the world.  In that scenario, it's just a matter of which of the two currencies, the Aussie and the Yen, would collapse the most relative to the other.  You're envisioning that the Yen collapses the most.  In a suddenly explosive inflationary scenario, you're probably right.

    The real issue here is that none of us knows yet which it's going to be.  Greece has defaulted and the entire world reacted with a big "so what".  And the equities markets partied on.  Will they be able to do the same when Spain has already told the ECB to go screw themselves if they think they're going to treat Spain the same way they treated Greece?  Spain is essentially saying "when our turn comes, we're just going to default and start over.  It would be the first time Spain did that.  It would be the 16th time.  They've already defaulted 15 times in the past 450 years.  They've got an admirable record going on over there, lol.

    I'm totally open minded though fellas... I don't have a clue which it's going to be.  Just a hunch based on history of other civilizations who have racked up just a fraction of the debt we're now under.

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  37.  Ya know...I just stopped by for a moment...read D-KNOX's wonderful post....and there ya go...LOL...I'm glad I stopped by.

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  38.  HELLO GREENFACE .

    LOVELY ARE THEY NOT ? THEY GO RIGHT TO ONE'S HEART , MIND , SOUL AND SPIRIT .

    PSALMS .34 , THIS POOR MAN CRIED AND THE LORD HEARD HIM AND SAVED HIM FROM ALL OF HIS TROUBLES .

    AND HE DID DO SO , PERSONALLY , MANY YEARS AGO .

    ALL THE VERY BEST TO YOU , AND TO ALL . D-KNOX. 

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  39. I don't disagree with your assessment that AUDJPY is the best correlation AT PRESENT. In fact, it was your good self that pointed it out to me originally, christ, maybe 2 years ago!
    What I am trying to say goes much wider:
    Back in the year 1770 it might have been the price of exotic spices that best reflected the health of the markets in general. In 1910 maybe railroad companies, in 1960 General Electric, and 2010 AUDJPY.
    I think we are at that point of change again. It isn't happening over the course of a week, or month, or even a year. But an epochal change is in the wind. 
    So maybe for the next 50 years something completely different may be the marker, which will reflect the seizmic shift  in global economics we are about to experience.
    We can only trade what works right now, for sure; but I'm just trying to think ahead a bit & maybe outside the box.
    Maybe in the next 50 years it will be a gold-backed chinese Yuan?
    You mention the Quadrillion dollar nuke waiting in  the wings. That is the Great Unmentionable. People say, "they wouldn't, couldn't let it happen'. We are steadily reaching  a point where '"they" no longer have any more control & things begin to unravel very quickly, maybe even literally overnight. Impossible? Maybe.
    But just ask anyone around in 1913: the chances of a Great War with millions & millions losing their lives?
    In 1929, the chance of an 85% stock market decline & 10 year Depression with 30+% unemployment.
    How about 9/11?
    Just because something hasn't happened before is no argument against it actually happening. 
    I think most on this board would agree that some fundamental change is inevitable, & the main question remaining is HOW BIG A CHANGE?
    I don't have a crystal ball, but remain open to the distinct possibility that The Worst Case Scenario is definitely still very much on the table.
    DK

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  40. Too bad about the all the bull shit you endured last night at "the other blog."  Though, you did let yourself get sucked into it a bit, but I've been guilty of that too.  Life's too short....................

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  41. A few random social mood observations:

    -- One particularly loathesome effect of allowing trolls to pester and provoke is that many of us who recognize the ramifications of plummeting social mood and are trying to maintain our personal emotional perspective can find ourselves actually wishing and hoping for an economic collapse just to shut them up -- and ready to celebrate a "win" when it actually happens. Hoping for the collapse of the American economy -- well that's just creepin'. Expecting it is one thing. Hoping for it is another. Thanks, trolls (and their enablers), for raising the ick factor to eleven. Way to set us all up.

    -- There's no need to be upset that the markets aren't doing what we might think they're supposed to. They're doing what actually should be expected. It's pretty normal to resist a collapse in mood. With waves this big though, eventually no amount of intervention is going to work. 

    -- It might be nice if a lot more people recognized social mood wave theory. Maybe it would go a long way toward negating some of the effects. For example, this week the media has been stirring up a shit storm over that incident in Florida. Someone else might get hurt as a result. Perhaps if they recognized there may be a down social mood wave in progress, they might be more circumspect and responsible: "You know folks, the social mood wave is declining right now, so we might be feeling like choosing sides, starting a witch hunt, and rioting and stuff. Let's realize it's the mood wave cycle. Let's not fan the flames here." And maybe even a few wars could be pre-empted: "We have decided to wait until the down cycle of the mood wave is over before we render a decision on whether to go to war. Let's remain patient and calm in the interrim."

    The events of this week do kind of prove the broadcast media is going to be no help when the social mood wheels really come off. They've become just another sensationalist reality show, and they're going to be in the middle of it, stirring shit up the more.

    Now back to you.

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  42. I see the time scale you're referring to now DK  And I'm in total agreement.  Things are not going to remain "the same" forever.  Probably not for much longer at all when considered in the context of the past 99 years since the birth of the FED.  I think all the rules are going to be changed some day and I've got a bad feeling that it will be something that happens rather suddenly.  Maybe over the course of a week or a month, not a slow rolling over process that takes years to develop.  Maybe Dec. 21, 2012 is a big date after all.  It 'is'is a Friday, lol.

    "Just because something hasn't happened before is no argument against it actually happening."

    Absolutely.  Personally, I've been guilty of expecting relationships and/or systems that have been in effect for decades to break down.  But they haven't... not as of yet.  So I'm definitely open minded to the notion that the status quo will not continue.  "Open minded"?  Hell, I'm totally convinced.  Today England announced that they're going to be offering 100 Yr. bonds.  That's not likely going to be any sort of game changer or something that causes any immediate reaction, but it does further reflect the trouble they're in.  Hell, the first time they even issued 50 Yr. bonds was in 2005.  And the last time they offered 100 Yr. gilts was right after World War 1.  Every £100 invested in those bonds that were meant to finance war damages is worth £2 today.  Not a good investment thanks to inflation.  So who in hell is going to buy the new issuance of 100 yr. bonds today?  Other central banks that's who.  It's obviously just another scam in the making.  One thing is for certain... if the BOE is willing to lock in rates for the next 100 years, then they're pretty damned confident that we're not going to be seeing lower rates than we have today for another 100 yrs.  Maybe the new bonds get crucified in the open market?  I'm pretty darned sure of one thing, if Spain defaults in 2012 or 2013 the cost of borrowing any future money would skyrocket.  Hell, I could see buyers of those new 100 yr. British bonds taking a haircut of 30-40% in the first two years.

    I agree bro... things are not going to remain the same.  There was a time when the Aussie:Yen pair had no correlation with equities at all.  We will see that situation return some day.  It's pretty difficult to know how all the global currencies are going to behave in the coming years, especially in light of the fact that not all of them have even been invented yet.  The evil ruling elite are still working on a 'one world currency' scheme that they'll no doubt roll out in time of panic.  It's that 'panic' that I'm trying to get a handle on first, and we can bet our asses it's coming.

    Hope you're enjoying a nice weekend.  Best of success this week bud.

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  43. Wise words Papa.  Of course it's important that we observe the deteriorating social mood.  We wouldn't be 'in tune' with what's happening in the world if we didn't.  Yet I'll bet 80% of the population of the entire planet aren't even aware that social mood is changing.  But in order to 'work effectively' in such an environment of deteriorating social mood... that's an entirely different task.  We're just like everybody else who is even aware that social mood is turning south real fast... but we don't have to participate in it... we don't have to be involved in the "fanning of the flames".  Instead, we need to monitor it from inside our own office that has 1" thick windows.  We can see the trolls on the outside looking in... banging on the glass with drool pouring out of their filthy mouths but we can't hear 'em.  Let 'em bang on the windows all they want.  At least we can think clearly in here and have valuable dialogue about what "we" are going to do about our own futures.  If they want to live in loud boisterous mayhem, spewing shit and fanning the flames, then god bless their oily hearts, let them... somewhere else. 

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  44. And on that note... here's a daily chart that shows the advancing issues minus declining issues on the NYSE.  In other words, it's a chart showing the daily net change in the numbers that are added to the "cumulative".  King troll keeps spewing his daily report on what advancers and decliners did and gives readers his "verdict", all the while overlooking the broader picture.  Who cares what happens with the A/D Line on a daily basis.  That measurement is so volatile that I've had to make it invisible on the chart just so that we can make any sense out of it. 

    What we're looking at in that chart are a couple of moving averages of the net difference between advancers and decliners, and as you can see, even the MAs are volatile.  But let there be no mistake, the picture and message that emerges from a more careful study like this is still quite clear.  Ever since early February the market internals have been deteriorating badly while the market chugged ever higher.  This has set up a neg. divergence on a massive scale... one that is making a very strong statement that the market literally "cannot continue higher" as long as the number of advancing stocks just continues to decrease.  This is what the Vagner reports to "his fans and followers" as being bullish.  Is it any wonder I fly off the handle every once in a while when I see such an erroneous and irresponsible interpretation as that?  What we see in the chart is very bearish.  But that's not to say that by some miracle equities can't just chug ever higher until the day arrives when the market finally becomes convinced... and advancers once again begin to outpace decliners.  It's only to point out that such an outcome has never happened before.  Neither does this divergence necessarily imply the size of the coming correction.  It doesn't have to be 'gigantic' but it would at least be meaningful... although perhaps just a correction.

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  45. I was just making some noise on my way out the door.  I am done with that blog.  Guy is a complete fraud and not from ND.  He had the fishing season wrong, had to search for it, was wrong about how you fish for the fish he was talking about, had to search for that, and when I asked him to confirm that "yes" that was what he was saying he did he refused to answer.  So, when I showed that last night, he then threatened me.  That was about all there was to it.  Nothing for me to endure.

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  46. HELLO ONE AND ALL ;

    WHAT ALARMS MYSELF IN THIS TIME AND PLACE , IS THE INTERJECTING OF PERSONNEL COMMENTS BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA , IN THE PUBLIC ARENA , ABOUT AN INCIDENT , WHEREIN A YOUNG BLACK MALE WAS SHOT BY A MAN OF A DIFFERENT RACE .

    THAT HE , THE PRESIDENT HAS IN MY MIND ALREADY CROSSED THE LINE , AND HAS JUDGED THIS MAN GUILTY WITHOUT BENEFIT OF A TRAIL BY ANY JUDGE AND JURY . WHY WOULD HE PUBLICLY DO SO ?

    IS HE DOING SO BECAUSE OF HIS REELECTION ?

    THIS IS IN AND OF IT'S SELF , A DANGEROUS MOOD THAT CAN ERUPT INTO VIOLENCE AND SOCIAL UNREST , THAT ONCE UNLEASHED , CAN HAVE TERRIBLE  CONSANGUINEOUS UPON OUR NATION AND IT'S PEOPLE . I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE OTHER MALE THAT WAS INVOLVED IN THIS INCIDENT , WAS NOT MURDERED  HIMSELF .

    I HAVE BEEN LOOKING FOR THE START OF SOCIAL UNREST IN THIS NATION . THIS INCIDENT  COULD LEAD WITHIN THIS NATION TO GREAT DAMAGE AND MISTRUST WITHIN THE GENERAL POPULATION OF THIS NATION .

    THIS ACT AND THE COMMENTS OF UNBELIEVABLE DIRECT UNTRUTHFULNESS  BY OUR NATIONS MAJOR MEDIA REPORTING AND THE FALSE JUDGING NOW ON GOING , WITH THE PERSONAL DIRECT COMMENTS BY THIS NATIONS PRESIDENT , IS IN MY MIND , TRULY UNBELIEVABLE .

    THAT THIS NATIONS  PRESIDENT WOULD SO INVOLVED HIMSELF, EVEN ORDERING A FEDERAL INVESTIGATION BY THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE , WITHOUT WAITING FOR THE LOCAL POLICE TO FINISH THEIR OWN INVESTIGATION .  

    THIS INCIDENT , IS AS IF SOME ONE WROTE A HOLLYWOOD SCRIPT FOR THE BEGINNING DESTRUCTION OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA .

    I HAVE HAD A THOUGHT , THAT OUR GOVERNMENT MIGHT SOMEDAY , BECOME DESTROYED BY A GROUP OF PERSONS , WHO WILL REVOLTED IN MASS AND LED TO A TOTALITARIAN GOVERNMENT ,.

    COULD BE , BECAUSE OF THE EVIL THAT HAS BEEN DONE AGAINST THE WORKING CLASSES ,  BY THE TAKING AWAY OF EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN THE U.S. AND THE LOSSES OF HOMES BY LIES AND DECEPTION UPON THE CITIZENS OF THE U.S.  . PEOPLE CAN ONLY BE PUSHED JUST SO FAR AND THEN IT'S TO LATE .

    MAY YOU ALL HAVE TRUTH AND PEACE IN YOUR LIFE . D-KNOX.

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  47. HELLO A R ;

    THANKS FOR THAT CHART ON THE NYSE ADVANCES AND DECLINES . I HAVE NOT LOOK FOR SOME TIME AT THAT.

    THAT CHART AND IT'S MOVING AVERAGES  ARE IN A POSITION FOR A  WAKE UP CALL TO BE SURE .

    THIS WEEK , WILL I THINK BE AN IMPORTANT ONE FOR THE GENERAL MOOD IN THE VARIOUS INDEX'S .

    WILL THEY TURN DOWN OR MOVE UPWARD ?

    THE FOG IS THICK AND IT'S NOT EASY TO SEE THE WAY, THEY COULD CLOSE OUT THE WEEK WITH NEW HIGHS ?

    A CORRECTION IS IN THE FUTURE DAYS AND WEEKS AHEAD . WILL THE S&P 500 MOVE DOWN TO 1350'S OR EVEN DOWN TOO THE LOW 1300'S ?

    WILL , IT MOVE EVEN LOWER ? THE MOVEMENT IS HEARD TO JUDGE AT THIS TIME AND PLACE

    P B , MADE REFERENCE TO THE SOCIAL MOOD , AND IT CAN AND DOES AT TIMES HAVE IMPACT UPON BUYING AND SELLING . THE RECENT SLIGHT PULL BACK , RELIEVED THE OVER BOUGHT CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE INDICATORS IN THE VARIOUS INDEX'S TO A CERTAIN EXTEND . THE ONE NOTED ABOVE IS PERHAPS , SIGNALING A CHANGE IN DIRECTION , SOONER THAN MOST WOULD EXPECT . 

    THE SELLING BY THE INSIDERS TO THE BAG HOLDERS , IF THERE ARE THAT MANY LEFT TO HOLD THAT BAG ,AS THE DIRECT PUBLIC INVESTORS ARE AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND PLACE , SOME OF THE LOWEST IN RECENT YEARS .

    I KNOW OF A FEW WHO HAVE TOTALLY REMOVED THEMSELVES FROM ALL OF THEIR INVESTMENTS, THEY EVEN SOLD OUT THEIR STOCK  AND FUND ACCOUNTS , AND PLACED THEIR FUNDS IN SHORT TERM C.D.'S AT THEIR BANKS .

    MAYBE THIS IS A SIGNAL TO INVEST AND KEEP INVESTING ?

    THAT NOTED , THE CURRENT SOCIAL MOOD NEEDS TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY AND ONE NEEDS TO WATCH OUT IN PUBLIC . I WARNED OTHER IN EMAILS , LAST YEAR, SEVERAL TIMES IN FACT,  NOT TO USE CELL PHONES OR THINGS THAT WOULD DISTRACT ONE , WHEN OUT IN THE GENERAL PUBLIC . LET THE DAMN THING RING AND ANSWER IT WHEN AND WHERE YOU ARE PROTECTED AND CAN WATCH OTHERS WHO MIGHT BE A THREAT TO YOURSELF . BETTER TO BE SAFE , THAN SORRY , KEEP WATCHING FOR THOSE WHO MIGHT BE WATCHING YOU !

    OLD WARRIORS , NEVER DIE , WE JUST FADE AWAY .  

    JUST A GENERAL THOUGHT . D-KNOX .

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  48. Yes, sorry about that shit storm, and glad you've moved on for your own sake, and for the rest of our sakes. And I'm glad we still have a place where you can drop by!  Cheers, and a toast to AR.
    A nice oasis he's formed here.

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  49. The guy is a blog killer, and the record is clear.  I witnessed him do it in real time at Trading to Win, which apparently inspired one of his current user names.
     
    You northern Minnesota guys know your fishing.

    I respect what there_is_no_spoon is trying to accomplish, but the sickness can't be pushed away by refusing to engage it -- It's much too stubborn for that.  Fixing things requires blocked IP addresses, and only Dan can do it.  However, Dan seems to have a distaste for dealing with this sort of thing, which, when engaging a determined adversary, is like playing internet "Whack-a-Mole."  He probably figures it'll eventually work itself out, but I can't say I share that view.

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  50. The creation of this blog is what's referred to as "front-running" Greg, lol.
    I'm glad you can find some use for it.

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  51. THAT THE RACIST BASTARD PRESIDENT WOULD INJECT HIS PERSONAL VIEW INTO THIS ISSUE IS DISGUSTING, BUT IT FITS HIS STRATEGY OF FANNING THE FLAMES OF RACIAL HATREDS.

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  52. One of the regulars there, about 2 weeks ago, suggested that there_is_no_spoon might be myself or BoboM or one of the other names who have been attacked relentlessly.  I can't tell you how infuriated and disappointed it made me that the person who made that suggestion did so, because he was somebody I'd gotten along well with and by then should have known me much better than that.  But I will say that the details that there_is_no_spoon laid out about what the Vagner has done and the details about the methods he uses are truly accurate.  Very accurate.  In fact, it was the best summary I've seen.  I could not have done a better one so I 'did' appreciate his laying it all out.

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  53. Cycles and moods... Looks like you understand what women have to live with. Mother Nature will prevail....

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  54. Inspired and inspiring words. Thank you

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  55.  it was like when he called BP "British" Petroleum.No one calls it that.Pure political oppurtunism

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  56. Yes.  I lurked at TTW, and remember him.  You have to be very careful with the rockabacken type people.  If you have ever spent any time on the Yahoo Spy message boards "they" do plant people there for disinformation and to pump very things.  Took me a long time to believe that as it seems paranoid, but somebody who knows a fuck load more about all of this pretty much convinced me.  So when rockabacken started threatening me with how they own can and control me and everything that is what he was talking about.  I started the fight last night because I was leaving.  Last time rockabacken picked a fight with me was when I mentioned how "they" signal each other on the 5 minute chart.  Same guy who told me about message board plants also told me about that signal. Pretty interesting.  Whole thing seems wildly paranoid to me.  But, regardless, I really don't have anything else to say on the subject other than when I exposed him for being a fraud last night he went ballistic.

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  57. Very thoughtful and dignified...you're going to end up being a role model for me if you keep that up. I surely wish I had your ability to put it all into the written word.

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  58. So what you're saying is we need to buy the world some really good chocolate, right? ;)

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  59. BDI (on Slope of Hope) is saying there is an important election going on in Andalusi.Watch Spanish bond yields tomorrow
    http://slopeofhope.com/2012/03/the-rain-in-spain-falls-mainly-in-the-drainby-bdi-not-yet.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+typepad%2Ftradeblogs%2Fthe_slope_of_hope_with_ti+%28Slope+of+Hope+with+Tim+Knight%29

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  60. Yeah, don't think I am crazy, it still seems pretty paranoid to me.  But, there actions are consistent with the alleged game.  Once they have bought and are running it up higher then the trolls come out with its a bull market stupid, buy it up, and so forth.  They do not say that at the bottom.  They are doing that because they are unloading and need buyers.  So, a message board with enough hits like Yahoo ETF, or maybe now Daneric's would be in play I guess. Anywayzz, doesn't matter, but you can see that in rockabakken's posting and in his attempts now to make his name good again on the board.  Very strange if it is real, to me. I prefer mysterious market forces of the universe.  

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  61. Makes sense to me.  It's an inexpensive way to influence a thinly traded market.

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  62. HELLO DOCTOR JR ;

    I HAVE TO WRITE A PERSONAL COMMENT .

    I HAVE HAD BLACK FRIENDS WHO HAVE NOW MOVED ON TO A BETTER PLACE .

    I HAVE NOW MET AND ONCE AGAIN HAVE BLACK FRIENDS WHO LIVE WITHIN THE COMPLEX THAT I AND OTHERS WHO ARE FROM LATIN AMERICA AND KOREA AND SOUTH EAST ASIA , LIVE HEREIN,.

    WE ALL SEEMS TO GET ALONG TOGETHER , AND WHY SHOULD WE NOT , WHEN WE RESPECT  ONE ANOTHER .

    IT'S SEEMS THAT THERE BE PEOPLE IN HIGH PLACES AND IN WHAT USE TO BE HONEST REPORTING BY HONEST ONE'S , THAT DID REPORT THE TRUTH AND WHO WOULD WAIT AND FIND THE TRUTH TO BE REPORTED .

    TODAY I FEEL THOSE DAYS ARE GONE WITH THE WIND . THEY SLING WHAT EVER AND WHEN EVER AT THOSE WHO CAN REALLY NOT DEFEND THEMSELVES .

    NO ONE REALLY KNOWS THE TRUTH OF WHAT HAPPENED TO THAT YOUNG MAN AND WHY IT DID HAPPEN TO HIM ?

    THE POLICE IT SEEMS IS BEING PUSH INTO A RUSH FOR JUDGEMENT AGAINST THE MAN WHO DID THE SHOOTING , HE MIGHT WELL HAVE DONE THIS SHOOTING BECAUSE THE YOUNG MAN WAS BLACK , OR FOR SOME OTHER REASON . I WONDER IF WE WILL EVER KNOW , BUT , THE GOOD LORD OUR GOD KNOWS .

    BUT FOR THE PERSONAL INVOLVEMENT BY OUR NATIONS PRESIDENT , IS IN MY EYES , IS TOTALLY  IRRESPONSIBLE AND HIGHLY DANGEROUS FOR THE FUTURE , OF OUR NATION.

    THE FACTS ARE NOT YET TRULY KNOWN , YET OUR NATIONS MEDIA , HAS FOUND THE MAN GUILTY AND TO HELL WITH THE TRUTH . THAT IS AGAIN IT'S SELF , VERY DANGEROUS FOR THE FUTURE OF OUR NATION .

    I WILL TELL YOU SOMETHING , AND THIS IS THE TRUTH . I HAVE FELT SINCE 2007 , I WAS LIVING IN BERLIN , NAZI GERMANY OF THE 1930'S . I HAVE HAD THAT FEELING SINCE THAT TIME PERIOD AND STILL DO . 

    THE RECENT PASSING OF THE NATIONAL DEFENSE AUTHORIZATION ACT THAT WAS PASSED IN DEC OF 2011 , ONLY HEIGHTEN THE FEELINGS I HAVE HAD SINCE CONGRESS CHEERED ON WHEN THEY PASSED THAT ACT AND THE PRESIDENT SIGNED IT INTO BEING .

    THEY DID TAKE AWAY YOUR BILL OF RIGHT'S  AND ALLOWED ANY ONE AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL'S OF THE U.S. GOVERNMENT TO HAVE YOU ARRESTED AND HELD UNTIL THE DAY YOU DIE , AND NO ONE WELL EVEN KNOW WHERE YOU ARE .

    MY TOTAL FEELING'S ,  HAVE ABOUT COME TO COMPLETION , SAD TO STATE .

    TAKE CARE D J , ALL THE VERY BEST TO YOU AND THE REST HAVE TO LIVE HERE AT THIS POINT IN TIME . D-KNOX.

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  63. This could be the long dollar move here....should be or risk currencies gonna take the middle of the chart and run over night..

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  64.  AGREED D. KNOX.
    SOCIAL UPHEAVAL HAS BEEN ON THE CARDS IN USA & EUROPE FOR A FEW YEARS NOW, AND IT SEEMS TO BE GATHERING PACE. THE MAIN THING THAT CONCERNS ME ABOUT THE USA IS THAT YOU HAVE SO MANY GUNS. THIS INCIDENT IN FLORIDA WOULD NOT EVEN BE NEWSWORTHY IN SAY, UK, WHERE THE WORST THAT WOULD HAVE HAPPENED WAS THE GUY WAS BEATEN UP. NO GUNS.
    THE GUN LOBBYISTS WHO QUOTE YOUR CONSTITUTION AD NAUSEAM, "THE RIGHT TO BEAR ARMS" ARE A DANGER TO YOUR COUNTRY, BUT MUCH TOO POWERFUL FOR COMMON SENSE TO PREVAIL & YOUR PRESIDENT TO SAY "YOU KNOW WHAT, OUR CONSTITUTION IS 200 YEARS OUT-OF-DATE. WE NEED TO CHANGE IT. NO MORE GUNS." MAYBE IT'S EASIER TO SEE FROM AFAR (AUSTRALIA) EG THE WALL-TO-WALL  TV & MOVIES MADE IN USA WHICH REVEL IN SHOOTINGS AND DEATH & GRISLY FORENSIC PATHOLOGY.  IT IS DANGEROUS & SADLY REFLECTIVE OF A DISEASED SOCIETY.
    GOD HELP YOU ALL
    DK

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  65.  Dino believes "they" plant people on the blogs,both to gather information and to plant misinformation.By "they" I think he means the specialists and marketmakers,not entirely sure.It always seemed a bit paranoid to me but you have to wonder.Wagner a professional agitator ? wow !

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  66. As Dr. J says the guy is a blog killer, and it looks like we ARE headed to those 2 discussion rooms he suggested for Daneric's one for serious discussions, and one for Go Fuck Yourself Commentary.  But instead of both housed under Daneric's blog, his is becomming the GFYC and AR's the other.  Also seems like he is seriously attempting to piss everyone off and kill the blog readership ... at the top that would make sense that there are people who would prefer that this message doesn't get out to the futree bag holders.

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  67. Cool ... how do "they" signal each other on the 5 minute chart? ... or that part wasn't shared probably.  That's totally believable.  So are the plants.

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  68. Nice way to center yourself and get a tranquil mind that Elliott recommends! 

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  69. Good discussion here ... and I wasn't aware Spain has already defaulted 15 times!  Actually when you think about it on a personal level, default is the rational choice.  And eventually millions more will choose that in the USA on their underwater homes and home equity loans.  It's the one time you CAN actually stick it to the banks.  Debt slaves or start over?  It's really that simple. 

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  70. Yeah.  I mean I don't want to get tin foil hat about it.  I treat "they" as a narrative that really works.  But, I did test TTW at no pivot breaky no fucky sucky moment and asked him as a "pro" if he was buying it.  He said he needed to see price action and had lower targets.  Then, a few days later he was saying how he gave me that buy and we were going higher buy it up and so forth.  So, I dunno, but that rakkenbakken guy is not real, imho.

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  71. How private is this blog?

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  72. Thanks for sharing that ... an excellent article on the JPY likely carry trade unwinding because they have to fund 3.2T rollover this year, and March being the biggest month.  This spike does look massive already but could only be just the beginning, and everyone is only talking about the Euro.  Definitely a potential black swan.

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  73. Dark chocolate is the best.  Hmmmm .... that sounds like a social mood thing again.

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  74. Good question ... better ask AR that one ... I suspect 
    AR's filter on known trolls is only preventing certain ones from posting, but they can probably read posts.  Silent lurkers.

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  75. Yes thanks for the prayers ... living in the US scares me deep in my bones ... for what lies in store in the near future.

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  76. You were the vanguard on that topic ... I think you grasped how destructive they were a year ago, and it's taken awhile for the wheels to fall off the Daneric site because of them, but you saw where it was headed, and now the rest of us understand because it's obvious now.

    The trolls banging on the glass windows reminds me of ... was it Mad Max with Will Smith and the mutant monsters?  Very good visual!

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  77. AND WHAT'S MORE:
    THE DEBATE IS COMPLETELY MISSING THE POINT. SURE, 'WHITE GUY KILLS INNOCENT BLACK GUY' WILL ALWAYS CAUSE A STIR.
    BUT THE WIDER POINT IS THIS: WHY DOES THIS GUY  (AND MANY MORE LIKE HIM) HAVE A GUN?
    EITHER
    1. CRIME IS SO BAD WHERE HE LIVES, THAT HE REALLY FEELS THREATENED  & 'NEEDS' ONE. THAT'S FUCKED. 
    OR-
    2. CARRYING A GUN MAKES HIM FEEL BIGGER & HE DOES NOT REALLY THINK OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF USING IT BECAUSE HE IS NUMBED TO THE IMPLICATIONS BY A CONSTANT BARRAGE OF EXTREME VIOLENCE ON PRIME-TIME TV & MOVIES: THAT'S EVEN MORE FUCKED.
    DUDES, YOUR COUNTRY IS SO FUCKED-UP.
    (APOLOGIES FOR THE EXTREME LANGUAGE, BUT SOMETIMES IT IS ALL THAT SEEMS APPROPRIATE!)
    DK

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  78. That looks like 5 up off the low on USD/CHF...but I am long, so there may be some bias in there...

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  79. Just left a similar comment in the old pub in reply to you

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  80. Since we are speaking of irrational enhuberance and indulgences. You must know by now that wine and chocolate pair wonderfully.

    Definitely a way of masking pain through taste bud pleasure and mood altering. Only problem is, just like QE or Ltro, it all crashes into a depression and the feeling is very yucky in the morning. Even worse is confronting one's folly.

    Of course, I have never done such a thing.... Lol

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  81. 116 is my favorite.

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  82. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1223193/Culture-violence-Gun-crime-goes-89-decade.html

    Nope, no guns. Let's see if they have any knives..

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2009/jan/23/knife-crime-statistics

    Yup apparently in the UK they solve all their problems via pillow-fights, good thing too because all men are monsters who will murder each other if you leave enough dangerous objects lying around.

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  83. Yes yes, very funny.
    I know knives have been an issue in UK recently , but consider this
    Total murders in UK (2006)=773 (population  60 million)
    Total murders in USA (2004)=16,137 (population 300 million)
    Total injuries from pillow fights= one slightly grazed elbow.
    QED

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  84. I think of the USDCHF like the inverse of the EURUSD since I thought the CHF is pegged to the EUR.
    But here's a little HandS at resistance where a 1-2, i-ii, etc. might be hanging out.

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  85. Most public debates in the US completely miss the point.

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  86. I got a big I II, [1][2],(1)(2), possibility feeling all around for tomorrow, just being careful on it...

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  87. Glad to hear you have a potential confirmation count of the stacked 1-2's ... yes, patience sounds like a wise stance on this here rabbit.

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  88. Welcome Morla.  I know we have crossed paths before but I don't recall where it was because I haven't seen you for a long time.  Do you know where it was?  Danno's?

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  89. I have been working to get dollar long all night..have AUD/USD short, EUR/USD short, USD/CHF long, USD/JPY long, and the USD/CAD long left over from last week.

    I am not sold that is right.  But, they are printing some small 8 hour chart candles now.  So, if you think about there being 3 global markets a day (I made this up, so grain of salt), then each candle represents each market in the world.  So, right now they are printing small doji/top and bottom candles.  I would want to see, and am hoping for, the European session to break those candles dollar positive, that would be a signal as to what the European session views risk on and off to be on the pairs.  Then, same thing in the morning on the New York candle, tell me which way currency bots are viewing the US equity day--risk on or off...so right now the candles are small which is nice and a break dollar positive in Europe would be a  real good sign that the 1-2s might be right..

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  90. DK, I get the sense that you're more or less horrified that so many people have guns in the US.  Would that be correct?  I used to think it was nuts too, at one time.  But today, man I am totally convinced that if it weren't for the fact that nearly every US citizen has a gun, they would have declared martial law in the US a decade ago and would have murdered tens of thousands (probably many more than that) of innocent American citizens.  I honestly believe that the oligarchs are very much concerned about the fact that everybody has a gun, not out of fear that they might use those guns on each other, but that if pushed too far (makes me wonder what in hell it's going to take) an armed citizenry just might one day turn their guns on the real troublemakers, the politicians, corporate leaders who are poisoning the entire planet (Monsanto), and the global banking elite whose goal it is to enslave us all.  I thank god every day now that the American people have guns but not to use on each other.  Instead, to use those guns like the marines do, to protect the constitution and the country against all threats both foreign and domestic.  No doubt it would be a much more beautiful world if there were no such thing as anger, violence, bullying and weapons, etc., but by golly without weapons the populace is a sitting duck in the sights of those who are running the country.  And god damn those are some seriously sinister leaders with evil intentions.

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  91. Spain is one country ripe like no other for a revolution.  I learned that from some of my European friends and have been reading up on it a bit ever since.  It might have even been yourself who alerted me to that fact although I don't think so.  If it was you CR, my apologies for forgetting.  In any event, with a population where 40% of the healthy young males under 25 have nothing to do and are hungry, it's a powder keg.  Not to mention that Spain is a country divided into regions that are at odds with each other... something I never knew until recently.  My daughter has a friend from Nicaragua, a man of Spanish decent.  He told me that his family supports Barcelona, not Madrid.  I didn't even know what he was talking about, but obviously he was referring to the regional differences.  And to top it all off, Spain is made up of 17 autonomous regions.  And that doesn't even include the Basques, lol.  Holy smokes, the Basques don't even consider themselves as French or Spanish but as Basques.  They want their region too.  They'd no doubt like their own country if possible.  They basically live in the south of France and the north of Spain... on each side of that border more or less.  I was also told that "the ghost of Franco is alive and well in Spain".

    When things turn south for the Spanish, and I'm sure their turn is coming soon, then that country could erupt pretty badly.

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  92. You may have a point there.
    I've travelled widely through US many times and never encountered a problem & realise that most people in US don't live in constant fear of being shot.
    I know 'the boat' was missed a long time agao & almost impossible to turn back the clock, but widepread gun ownership just seems so fundamentally unnecessary and wrong to me.
    Maybe I'll be proven wrong when Goldman Sachs HQ gets stormed by the populace & heads put on spikes outside the Fed Reserve.

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  93. Thanks for the heads up.  I responded, back at that pub.

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  94. I'm not quite sure how to answer that.  On this blog you're free to say whatever you like SJ (except for the personal attack, etc.).  So it's up to you.  If you'd like to share something with your friends but would prefer not to share it with those who deserve jail time, then it's probably better not to post it here.  You might want to email it to Greg or whoever in that case.  It's totally up to you.

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  95. Oh you can bet they're lurking.  How ironic do you find it that since Wagner can't post here, neither have any of the other trolls like Wagner's chief dick tugger rocknbakkn been able to either.  Same IP address no doubt, lol.

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  96. Yeah, I agree.  When we think about "why do people need guns in the first place?", and the answer is "because there are so many thieves and violent people out there that without a gun your chances of survival, even in your own home, are somewhat slimmer', then we have to accept that the society in general is not healthy at all.  I'm not dissing the USA, it's that way all over.  The main difference is that the USA citizenry is more armed than any other.  On a side note, the common preconception is that Canada is relatively gun free.  Compared to the USA, yes Canada is 'relatively' gun free, but at the same time, they'd be totally surprised at how may peeps have guns up here.  In fact I have a rifle that was my grandfather's, purchased in the Boston area in 1896.

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  97. That's a great contribution on a touchy subject Scotty.  More than likely nobody else here is more qualified than yourself to address the issue.  Personally, I very much appreciate the perspective from a guy like yourself with that kind of experience.  ???..of course your comment was respectful and civil.  Man, people need to relax just a bit in here I guess, lol.  I'm no tyrant... it's just that I don't want the Vagner types in here.  We're cool.  Your comment was really good IMO.

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  98. Thanks for your insight.
    Your point re flight, flight or f++k is particularly interesting. I am a medic too and never really considered the last 'F' in such a way. Physiologically it makes perfect sense. The third state of sympathetic nervous system arousal. I can see how physical violence can lead to sexual arousal, and it may be that the line between 'normal' gratification and pathological may be finer than we think.
    I do think though that maybe the use of a gun enables one to be physically removed from the target, enabling the shooter to feel a little less psychologically engaged to their victim & the act itself. As opposed to stabbing, which would take more courage, a greater level of bodily violence & a closer connection to the victim. So shooting is easier. Not really sure what my point is, just rambling now, lol.
    Have great day.
    DK

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  99. Don't listen to AR-I've outed him as a gun nut, lol

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  100. HELLO AGAIN TO THOSE WHO ARE AWAKE ;

    I WAS GOING TO MAKE A COMMENT LATER BUT SINCE SOME ARE DOING SO WITHIN A HOUR OF THIS MESSAGE , I THOUGHT WHY NOT NOW .

    WE WOULD NOT HAVE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WIN OUR FREEDOM FROM KING GEORGE THE THIRD , IF IT HADN'T BEEN FOR THOSE WHO OWNED WEAPONS BACK IN THE 1770'S , HERE IN THIS COUNTRY . THOSE WHO STOOD SHOULDER TO SHOULDER AND FOUGHT THE WORLDS BEST TRAINED, AND EQUIPPED ARMY IN THE WORLD AT THE TIME .

    THESE WERE  FARMERS AND MERCHANTS WHO GATHERED TOGETHER TO FIGHT FOR THEIR FREEDOM , ONCE ENGLAND DECIDED NOT TO GIVE THE AMERICANS REPRESENTATION IN THEIR GOVERNMENT , BUT TO TAX THEM AS MUCH AS THEY WANTED TO DO SO AND FORCE THEM EVEN TO HOUSE THEIR TROOPS UPON THE GENERAL POPULATION .

    TREATING THE AMERICANS AS THEIR PERSONAL SLAVES . MY FIRST AMERICAN BORN ANCESTOR WAS BORN IN BOSTON , IN 1750 , HE WAS IN THE LOCAL CIVIL GUARDS AND TOOK PART IN THE BOSTON TEA PARTY , LATER FOUGHT THE BRITISH AT BUNKER HILL . LEAVING BOSTON TO SEEK OUT GENERAL GEORGE WASHINGTON , WHO ACCEPTED HIM AS ONE OF HIS OFFICERS . MY GREAT GRAND FATHER , MUCH REMOVED , BECAME THE CLOSES OF FRIENDS WITH GENERAL WASHINGTON , IN FACT HE TOOK OVER THE COMMAND OF THE CONTINENTAL ARMY WHEN GENERAL WASHINGTON RESIGNED .  

    OUR COUNTRY WON IT'S INDEPENDENCE , BECAUSE OF THE COMMON MAN , WHO DID LEAVE HIS FAMILY FARM OR SMALL  BUSINESS TO WAGE A WAR THAT WENT ON FOR YEARS AND YEARS , UNTIL THE FINAL VICTORY .

    WEAPONS WERE NEEDED AND STILL ARE IN MANY AREAS OF THESE U.S.A. , AS TO THE LAND MASS , SOME TIMES THE COUNTRY SHERIFF HAS THREE PATROLS OR LESS TO COVER 10, 000 SQUARE MILES , IT MIGHT TAKE A PATROL CAR A HALF AN HOUR TO ANSWER AN EMERGENCY OF A HOUSE BREAK IN . THAT IS WHY PEOPLE ARE ARMED AND TO LOOK AFTER ONE ANOTHER IN THE COMMUNITY . 

    WHERE I USED TO LIVE IN MY NEIGHBORHOOD , I WOULD THINK ABOUT HALF OF THE ONE'S ON MY SIDE OF THE STREET HAD AT LEAST ONE WEAPON . I HAD TWO OF THEM .

    IT'S ONLY IN PLACES LIKE CHICAGO OR WASHINGTON ,D.C. , THAT WILL JAIL YOU FOR OWNING ONE AND WHERE THE RATE OF CRIME IS SO HIGH AT TIMES , IT'S BECAUSE THE PEOPLE CAN NOT DEFEND THEMSELVES AND THE CRIMINALS KNOW IT , FOR THEY HAVE THE WEAPONS AND WILL USE IT AND BY THE TIME A POLICE MAN ARRIVES , THEY CALL THE CORNER AFTER THEY ARE THERE , TO PICK UP THE HOME OWNERS BODY AS THE POLICE ARRIVED TO LATE .

    DO NOT EXPECT THE POLICE IN AMERICA TO PROTECT YOU , THEY DO NOT PROTECT YOU , THEY ONLY INVESTIGATE THE RESULTS OF THE CRIME , YOU ARE REALLY EXPECTED TO DEFEND YOURSELF . 

    THE REASON THE OLIGARCHIES HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TAKE OVER AMERICA , IS BECAUSE OF THE COMMON MAN , WHO LIVES A SIMPLE GOD LOVING LIFE AND IS ARMED AND IS GOING TO STAY THAT WAY , AS THEY KNOW THAT IS THE ONLY WAY THEY AND THEIR LOVED ONE'S CAN REMAIN FREE , AND HAVE EVER SINCE THEY DEFECTED THE BEST TRAINED AND EQUIPPED ARMY IN THE WORLD IN THE YEAR 1782.  

    AMEN.

    ALL THE BEST TO ALL OF YOU WHO LOVE FREEDOM AND WANT TO REMAIN  FREE . D-KNOX .

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  101. HELLO NOSTRADUMASS ;

    TO QUOTE DOCTOR JR , WHAT DID THAT RACIST BASTARD PRESIDENT DO IN AN EXECUTIVE ORDER DATED
    ON THE 16TH OF MARCH , I DO NOT BELIEVE THAT I HEARD ABOUT THAT ?

    THANK YOU . D-KNOX.

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  102. The DAX move off Friday's low looks like A-B-C with a triangle B wave.  Of course I could be wrong, but I consider that a high-confidence corrective pattern.

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  103. Thanks, that's aery nice way to think about this (a handle on the moves), and what to watch for ... EUR/USD had yet another down-up while we slept. 

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  104. QQQ idea
    http://screencast.com/t/AkyoegagV06y

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  105. No worries at all AR....I just want to maintain the appropriate level of decorum on certain topics that often turn into screaming matches in just about every other venue...Holy sheep dip AR...you're getting a reputation for maintaining decorum....You have to do something about that ASAP...that's how rumors get started LOL.

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  106. DAX is in the range (currently at 7083) of where this A-B-C move should be about complete.

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  107. The third "f" was included for exactly the reason you stated...It's particularly interesting and demonstrates how thin human our veil of higher order thinking is. And...it is rarely talked about.

    Grossman's treatise "On Killing" is required reading in every combat associated field, as it explains how humans are re-hardwired to change our innate desire to preserve human life into quite the opposite. Every professional operator has it in their library, and it should be read by anyone interested in human behavior, and behavior modification at all levels. It also illustrates how certain group interactions lead to "bonding experiences" which can ultimately justify any unsavory, destructive behavior (that includes bullies on a playground, the PTA, politicians, and TBTF bankers). Basically, it illustrates how we are all being played by many different disciplines for a variety of intended outcomes, while all the while we are lead to believe that we are pressing the buttons....It kind of pulls it all together.

    I totally got your point...it's a tough subject with many facets. The hardest part is finding clarity in the fog. You too have a very great day.

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  108. Thanks for the BDI post. If I had anything valuable to share in regards to that, I would :p

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  109.   It only took 235 years to forget history.  The 2nd Amendment is about
    defending one's self from a tyrannical government and is secondarily
    about personal protection from others.  As I watch this president and
    his minions subvert and destroy the Consititution, I fear the final
    solution will be armed rebellions.  Those that forget history are doomed
    to repeat it.



    The Consititution out-of-date?  Hardly.  All the principles found in
    this document are as applicable today as they were when it was first
    written.



    I am not a member of the NRA or ANY gun lobby, but I believe these 2 quotes from Thomas Jefferson:



    1. A government big enough to give you everything you want is big enough to take away everything you have.



    2. The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not. (Put another way, It's over when those who work for a living are outnumbered by those who vote for a living)

    I fear my country is past the point of no return, but that fear stems from Obama and the Federal Government, not people like Zimmerman.  They spend money we don't have and engender class warfare blaming those that produce for not paying "their fair share".  If you took ALL the wealth from the top 1% you couldn't cover the Federal deficit for the current year.

    Take away my firearms and in doing so take away my last line of defense?  I don't think so...

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  110. SPY did not make a new high, but QQQ is well in new high territory. When we were moving down last week, I had the full belief that if we bounced off the 1390 level (like we did) we were going to make a sharp move straight toward 1440. Where this puts us in longer term counts I have no idea, but the QQQ will easily take out 68.10 if that is the case. 

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  111. Gold Bottom

    GLD FibFan from 10/22/08

    GLD Wkly + RSI
    The wkly EMA34 became support early 2009.

    BPGDM with RSI + %R

    http://britefire.wordpress.com/?p=254&preview=true

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  112. Heckuva retrace of the five waves down, eh? This is the sort of thing that makes me ponder the whole underlying theory of EW analysis. Just the vague hint of more QE spins the market up this high. If Bernanke had come out and said definitively "Yes, QE restarts now, throttle wide open, to infinity and beyond!" we'd already have a new high, and maybe a new rally, and the five waves down would mean nada. Social mood is not the be-all-end-all determiner of market moves, at least on the minute scale. In other words, counts can get crushed by stuff like that, no matter what the underlying mood is.

    And saying that the reason Bernanke didn't come right out and say "QE is ON, bro's!" is because he too is subject to mood waves -- that's sort of like a kid's game of "I knew you were going to say that. I knew you were going to say that too. And that too." Or more to the point, it's almost religious, hyper-Calvinistic -- predestination and irresistible power of the mood waves or something. And "the waves made him do it" is very protective of the lore of the supposed infallibility of EW analysis (if the counts are right, of course).

    Bottom line, whether the top is in or there's a another high to come, I'm a lot more apt to just pay attention to the zoomed-out count than get all invested in the minute-and-under squiggles.

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  113. From where I sit the Russell completed a 5 wave sequence down off the peak of March 19th.  Supposedly, so did the S&P.  Not only that, but in the Russell's case, the move lower fell below what would have been wave 1 offering confirmation that a new leg lower was in progress.  The move today is to new local highs.  Therefore we have a 5 wave sequence lower that is a corrective.  I've seen that happen more than 27 million times.  That's why I don't trade based on EWT.  Admittedly though, classic TA seems to be dead as well these days.  I think a person could safely just go long and forget it for the next 10 years.

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  114. "I think a person could safely just go long and forget it for the next 10 years"

    You might be right. The can might be kicked down the road a decade or more.

    But personally, I have some very strong beliefs about all this, and I don't think it's safe to go long for 10 minutes, much less 10 years. If they do manage to extend things that long, the resulting crash would be even more epic than if it were to start soon.

    And you're right. No form of TA has a handle on this stuff right now. Anyone who just says "Go long, more up side" has probably an eighty percent chance of being right on any given day. The problem with that is that it will change, drastically, and there's no early warning signal functioning right now.

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  115. The S&P is up 1% while VIX is up 1.35%.  I guess that's standard logic.

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  116. I've added a couple charts above since they still seem to pretty helpful.  These were discussed at the last pub but they seem so simple and straightforward that I think they're still quite useful in perhaps helping grasp the bigger picture with at least a modicum of clarity. 

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  117. Papa, I said that out of frustration.  I shouldn't have, being the responsible jerk that I am.

    You are correct, with 100% certainty.  They absolutely cannot kick the can for another 10 months, let alone 10 years.  Like you said: "I don't think it's safe to go long for 10 minutes, much less 10 years."  I agree completely... the market is in extreme danger at all times. 

    All it would take is one single piece of news that could then conveniently be accused of being the cause of the crash.  Of course it wouldn't be the cause of the crash, but it sure would fit the bill as the scape goat.  How about this headline: "Portugal Defaults Voluntarily.  Leaves the Eurozone - Declares War on Russia."  Well, maybe we won't be seeing that one any time soon, but you get my drift.  One shocker out of a hundred that are lurking in the shadows is all it would take.  "Portugal Defaults Voluntarily - Votes to Leave Eurozone."  That one is more possible than not.

    "Anyone who just says "Go long, more up side" has probably an eighty percent chance of being right on any given day."

    That is a fact and it's due to the fact that the FED is on the bulls' side.  Never fight the FED as they say.  And if you and I and all the other readers here were somehow by magic simply converted into conveniently stupid people with our heads in the sand, completely bereft of any knowledge about the truth, we would be wealthy ignorant bulls.  We would all be in the camp of, and huge fans of, oneofdaworst.  Unfortunately, all of us we are very aware of the dangers and consequences of debt at levels never seen before, and at interest rates never seen this low before.  A 1% hike in rates would crush the world. 

    As they say ignorance is bliss.  I say they tank this bitch and get it over with.  But they won't, not until they lose control.  That might be quite some distance into the future for all we know.  Perhaps the day after the election.  Are we to believe that the market just continues on this trajectory for another 7.5 months?  Not a freakin' chance.

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  118. THANK YOU FOR THE HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE. I DIDN'T USE TO SUPPORT GUN OWNERSHIP BECAUSE I THOUGHT GUNS WERE RELATED TO VIOLENCE. I HAVE SINCE CHANGED MY MIND AND NOW KNOW THAT A DEEPER ANALYSIS IS NEEDED. I OWN AS WELL.

    EVEN THOUGH THE CITIZENRY MAY BE ARMED, IT WILL BE FOUGHT DIFFERENTLY THIS TIME. OUR PUNY SHOTGUNS WON'T AMOUNT TO MUCH FACED WITH HIGH TECHNOLOGY


    http://www.economist.com/node/3423036

    PERHAPS THE KIDS WILL HAVE THE ADVANTAGE SINCE THEY WILL HACK INTO SYTEMS AND DISABLE COMMUNICATIONS. THAT IS MORE LIKELY THE LEVEL THE GUERILLA FIGHTING WILL TAKE PLACE. IN FACT, IT MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN.

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  119. I guess everybody has left.  So I'm leaving too.  See y'all tomorrow :-)

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  120. We're about out of Fib numbers. What's left, .89 and .987? If they manage to punch through those and grind this thing above 1576 without a major correction and without a freakin' recovery, I'm going to put on a hat just so I can tip it in the general direction of the movers and shakers and planners and whoever else managed to pull off this magnificent whatever-it-is.

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  121. re missing the selloff- I'm with ya. Just about survival til then

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  122. Cheers Mate!

    That's why they say the waiting is the hardest part ;)

    At least I have places like this and ZH where I can go while I laugh at the spinning heads on TV and the people chasing bubbles (AGAIN>>>)

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  123. Don't think for a minute that we are the only ones biding our time and waiting for next Elevator ride. My powder has lots of company. I just hope I have as much confidence in my beliefs when it actually starts. So many false alarms so far...

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  124. Now break that US statistic down further between areas of high gun control and areas of low gun control. Also take into account the War on (some) Drugs and where and upon whom the true cost of that great injustice is falling. It's the black markets that are killing people, not the weapons. Guns don't matter unless people have a reason to kill each other. The criminal underground which invariably appears to profit off of various prohibitions provides such reasons. And if you think the black market in drugs is violent, just wait and see how violent all the new gun traffickers will be if we try and ban those under the same ridiculous logic that people already willing to break major laws will be unwilling to break new, lesser laws.

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  125. I hear what you're saying: guns don't kill people, people kill people. The guns just make it more likely someone's gonna die when there is anger, violence, social disintegration. I don't pretend to know the answer.

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  126. I stole SJ's moving average system.
    I hope he doesn't mind.

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  127. not sure re AUD or anything at the mo, but trying a speccie short here near 61%Fib.
    any thoughts?

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  128. yes I have the same EURUSD
    short 1.3360

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  129.  I'm selling the double top -

    double zz off last Thurs low y = .786*w

    good place for a pullback either way

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  130. Here's an 10min SPX chart indicating today's action was a 5th wave.  I think it's a sound count.

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  131. Damn... I come onto this site and see that cold mug of beer and all of a sudden I get a hankering. AR, you are a bad influence. I may have to take a quick run to the store for a brewski.

    I've been working/traveling all day. Looks like I didn't miss much. So, will the Supreme Court overturn OBummer Care? Or has this been discussed already...

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  132. If there is any inkling that OBummer Care may be overturned, could this indicate a retracement/reversal?

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  133. Dollar longs all stopped out this morning. Took the day off so I did not chase.  Bummers.  Trying to scalp USD/CHF long here while I search charts...just a 1 minute chart scalper....

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  134. and a long USD/JPY scalper..

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  135. AUD/USD woudl have to break 1.05053 to get me interested in a short.

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  136. THE RACIST BASTARD PRESIDENT WHO LOVES MURDERING BROWN CHILDREN SIGNED AN ORDER PUTTING 100% OF ALL RESOURCES, INCLUDING HUMAN RESOURCES, UNDER THE DIRECT CONTROL OF THE GOVERNMENT IN THE CASE OF "NATIONAL EMERGENCY."

    OF COURSE, THE NATION HAS BEEN IN A "STATE OF EMERGENCY" SINCE WORLD WAR TWO, WITH EACH PRESIDENT RENEWING THE STATE OF EMERGENCY EVER SINCE.

    OF COURSE, IT ISN'T ENTIRELY THE FAULT OF THE RACIST BASTARD PRESIDENT. AFTERALL, ONE HUNDRED TWENTY NINE MILLION THREE HUNDRED NINETY ONE THOUSAND ONE HUNDRED SEVENTY SEVEN COMPLETELY RACIST AMERICAN ASSHOLES WENT TO TO POLLS TO VOTE FOR HIM AND HIS MURDEROUS TRAITOROUS CLONE, MCCAIN. THAT'S HOW IT IS WHEN YOU LIVE IN A SICK, CRUEL, VALUELESS SOCIETY SUCH AS EXISTS IN THE USSA.

    SAME THING IS GOING TO HAPPEN AGAIN THIS NOVEMBER WHEN THE SCUM-LECTORATE VOTES FOR O-BAMA, O-ROMNEY, OR O-TORUM. JUST PROVING ONCE AGAIN THAT JUST WHEN YOU THOUGHT PEOPLE COULDNT ACT ANY WORSE, THEY WILL.

    OBAMA IS COMMANDER IN CHIEF OF A MILITARY IN WHICH TWO THIRDS OF ALL WOMEN ARE SEXUALLY ASSAULTED BY THEIR OWN COMRADES. YOU CAN IMAGINE HOW THEY TREAT THE WOMEN WHOM THEY OCCUPY, THEN. OBAMA MIGHT HAVE HAD SOMETHING TO SAY ABOUT TREYVON, BUT HE IS BEATING TO DEATH THE MOTHER OF FIVE IN EL CAJON EACH AND EVERY DAY HIMSELF. ANYONE WHO WANTS TO REPLACE HIM WITH JUST ANOTHER CLONE IS JUST ANOTHER MURDERER, IMHO.

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  137. lol, i wouldnt worry about any spanish revolutions until the kids put down the bongos and the hash pipes.

    barcelona was tha anarchist/marxisdt center during the civil war, while madrid was the fasscist capital. and of course the basques want to do their own thing in the north. even the valencianos and others consider themselves to be separate.

    of course, they have a royal family too. they belong in jail, but i wont hold my breath.

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  138. That is really noice.  Merci.

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  139.  I would go along with that too DrJr.
    A top here would probably fool a heckuvalota peeps.

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  140. Indeed.

    So many people are up in arms about Obama's remarks regarding the racist murder of a black child.

    How much you wanna bet that those same people voted for a neocon (trotskyite communist) candidate (e.g. obama, mccain)  for president in 2008?

    How many of them think twice about what the USSA is doing fucking over other people's countries?

    How many of them SMILE when told about what happened in El Cajon this week?

    America is a martial society, so that means a lot of violence and a lot of death. Americans love violence, and they choose to live this way voluntarily. And they love, love, love their racist killers. Look at the rush to defend the guy charged with the most recent massacre in Afghanistan. Note also how the whole world has a different story (16-20 killers, multiple rapes) than the dumbed-down US masses are allowed to have . Note how Zimmerman is being defended, even right here on a trading blog? Meanwhile, how much you wanna bet that the El Cajon killer is never found?

    Sorry if this comes off harsh.. I'm having some trouble adjusting to "home."

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  141. YEAH LIKE WHEN HE ACCEPTED HIS IRISH HERITAGE CERTIFICATE LAST WEEK - I'M SURPRISED RIOTS DIDNT BREAK OUT RIGHT THERE AND THEN!

    HIS MOTHER AND GRANDMOTHER WORKED FOR THE CIA, AND SO DID HE, STRAIGHT OUT OF COLLEGE. IT DOESNT GET ANY MORE RACIST (OR AMERICAN) THAN THAT.
     

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  142. fyi, AR, most ISPs have an abuse department and email address (usually abuse"at"ispname.com). if you start getting comments along the lines of "i have your IP address and i'm going to hunt you down in person" it's time to notify the ISPs abuse department. Once you have the IP, you can usually look up which ISP it belongs to on a WHOIS server or by doing a reverse lookup on the IP (there are websites for that as well).

    good luck and thanks for providing this alternative.

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  143. with the recent gaps being filled today, it would make a lot of sense.

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  144. USD/JPY took out its morning 8 hour candle and is trying to break out above the 21 ema (rough middles of chart and trend)....that is why...

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  145. USD/CHF is trying to get its 26/39/78 above the 390 smas on the 1 minute..that is the scalper reason....no 8 hour chart breakout so playing small charts

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  146. You're an American citizen, aren't you?  I don't mean to imply anything.  I'm just curious.  I seem to recall your primary identification is with your native people (Pomo?).

    I don't have a problem with the Irish heritage certificate. 

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  147. The gap issue that stands out to me is this morning's gap over the March 22 gap.  So now we have something of a double gap.  All things being equal, I'd expect that to exert some pull.

    My concern is that this was a relatively strong move and it will take a while longer for the momentum to dissipate. On the other hand, SPX is entering a resistance zone represented by the entire year of 2007.

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  148. The $VIX was especially curious today. Everybody out there must be real complacent. This year is shaping up eerily like 2010, minus the fact that it's an election year. But look at what volatility was doing last time we had a presidential election. 

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  149. Hey AR, that unemployment number, 40% of the young males is a scary stat.
    There was an article projecting global unemployment in 5 years and it's mind blowing.
    Exponential population growth running up against too slow or stagnant job growth.
    Making it a sure thing that we'll have Very Bleak social mood just due to that ...
    EVEN IF ALL THE DEBT BOMBS SOMEHOW DON'T EXPLODE BY THEN. 

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  150. Saw the movie Network recently.  If you haven't seen it lately i recommend it.
    Internet and television... very similar.

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  151. ooooh  AUD
    noice SJ, there's your break of 1.0505
    possible expanding wedge for (1) down on squiggles.
    velly intellesting

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  152. Yeah.  There are some harmonics flashing here too.  I am trying the dollar long plays again with stops....moight be early but we got some breaks to push off now..

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  153. Wish I had a better handle on the larger structure and what the hell is going on.  We are at daily pivot areas, but this is tough right now....for SJ at least...

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  154. always dangerous to label a wedge as a leading (1), so let's see what kinda retrace we get. prob be deep whatever it does

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  155. well the uber-bearish 1-2 1-2 still has a chance while 1.0636 holds, which is why I'm still speccie short,plus given 'possible' final squiggles of equities.

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  156. Makes sense.  Thanks.  

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  157. I feel like one more wave up in risk currencies one more wave down would not surprise me over night.  Playing the dollar longs and willing to get stopped if I cannot get risk free.  Feels a little bit like stepping in front of a freight train.

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  158. Roger.  I spent some time with AUD/JPY this weekend that you guys talk about.   That is an interesting pair.  I don't think I will trade it, but the risk/fear purity of is interesting to me.  Have been watching the 2 hour chart for 8/21 ema crosses to see if it has value as a trend a bias across the other pairs.  No conclusion yet, but would have said risk on overnight last night.

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  159. I'm steering clear of AUDJPY. As I mentioned before, Yen mega weakness could scupper this pair's mojo. If AUD tanks bigtime with risk-off, then AUDUSD should suffice for a few $$

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  160. Hey AR,

    Global Economic Intersection published that article in their op-ed section.  Pretty cool.  Thanks again for the intro!

    http://econintersect.com/b2evolution/blog2.php/2012/03/27/redux-the-ides-of-march

    PW

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  161. Hey AR,

    Global Economic Intersection published that article in their op-ed section.  Pretty cool.  Thanks again for the intro!

    http://econintersect.com/b2evolution/blog2.php/2012/03/27/redux-the-ides-of-march

    PW

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  162.  HERE IS THE LINK TO THE WHITE HOUSE WEB PAGE FOR THE EXECUTIVE ORDER REFERENCED.

    http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/03/16/executive-order-national-defense-resources-preparedness

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  163. HELLO NOSTRADUMASS ;

    I THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR YOUR KIND REPLY AND THE INFORMATION ON MY BEING ABLE TO ACCESS
    FROM THE ADDRESS ON YOUR REPLY .

    IT TOOK MY SELF A FEW HOURS OF NEARLY GOING BLIND , TO BE ABLE TO LEARN OF WHAT IS AFOOT HERE IN THIS
    RAPTLY BECOMING DICTATORSHIP , PER THE  PRESIDENT EXECUTIVE ORDER DATED 16 MARCH 2012 .

    HEREIN IS TWO SECTIONS OF THE VERY LONG E O .

    SECTION 101 (a) OF THE ACT, 50 U.S.C. APP 2071 (a) , TO CONTROL GENERAL DISTRIBUTION OF ANY MATERIAL
    ( INCLUDING APPLICABLE SERVICES ) IN THE CIVILIAN MARKET . WHICH MEANS ,  ANY THING THE GOVERNMENT
    DEEMS IMPORTANT , THEY COME FIRST AND FOREMOST .

    SECTION 204 , CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WARFARE , THE AUTHORITY OF THE PRESIDENT CONFERRED BY SECTION 104(a) OF THE ACT , 50 U.S.C. APP 2074 (b) , IS DELEGATED TO THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE , THE AUTHORITY MAY NOT BE FUTHUR  DELEGATED BY THE SECRETARY .   WHICH MEANS , POSSIBLE CHEMICAL'S TO BE USE IN THE SHOWERS OF THOSE IMPRISONED IN THE NEWLY CONSTRUCTED CONCENTRATION CAMPS , PER THE FUHRER ,
    AND POSSIBLE BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS TO BE OF USE IN MAJOR METROPOLITAN AGAINST MAJOR RESISTANCE TO THE ORDERS OF THE FUHRER . SIEG HEIL . D-KNOX .

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  164. What a day in the matrix AR...check out SPX channel resistance that has contained price for 2 years now...will it mean anything?

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  165. HELLO SHABS ;

    THERE IS NOT ANY REASON TO VOTE EVER AGAIN FOR ANY ONE RUNNING FOR THE OFFICE OF PRESIDENT .

    THEY ARE ALL HAND SELECTED AND INDUCED OR SEDUCED TO RUN , CREATING A SHAM FOR THE BENEFIT OF THE UNINTELLIGENT CLASSES IN THE U.S.A. AND THE OTHER COUNTRIES TO USE ARE EXAMPLE ON HOW TO CONTROL MAJOR ELECTIONS .  .

    MC CAIN WAS A DISGRACE TO HIS RANK AND UNIFORM , AND WHAT EVER IN THE NAME OF GOD , DID HE HAVE A NOBODY , AS A V.P. , WHO AFTER THINGS WERE OVER AND DONE WITH , LEFT HER OFFICE AS A GOVERNOR , HOWS THAT'S FOR CLASS ? CLASSLESS SHE AND MC CAIN WERE AND ARE TO THIS DAY ?

    THE HIDDEN ONE'S  , MY FRIENDS ARE IN THE REAL CONTROL OF NEALY EVERY MAJOR GOVERNMENT AND MAJOR BANKING AND INVESTMENT HOUSE'S, ALONG WITH THE MAJOR UNIVERSITIES  , NOT ONLY IN THIS COUNTRY , BUT THE OTHERS AROUND THIS WORLD . AND THEY ARE ALSO , CONTROLLING THE RELIGIOUS CENTERS AROUND THIS WORLD .

    I KNOW WHO THEY REALLY ARE , AS SO DO OTHERS LIKE MY SELF . THEY ARE LISTED IN VARIOUS BOOKS OF THE BIBLE . THAT IS ALL I AM GOING TO SAY ON THIS SUBJECT AT THIS POINT IN TIME .

    THEY ARE NEARLY TO THE POINT OF BRING TOGETHER A ONE WORLD GOVERNMENT , AND NO THEY ARE NOT WHO YOU MIGHT THINK THEY ARE . THIS COUNTRY , FIRST HAS TO FALL AND BE TAKEN OVER AND THEN THEY DO TAKE COMMAND . OBAMA , WAS FOUND BY THESE ONE'S AND HE IS BEING TOLD WHAT DO TO , EACH STEP OF THE WAY.

    HAVE FUN FOLKS , THE GOOD TIMES WILL NOT LAST . THERE IS NO ONE IN POWER IN WASHINGTON , WHO IS ON THEIR OWN , THEY ARE ALL BEING CONTROL BY THE HIDDEN ONE'S , IN ONE DEGREE OR OTHER.

    D-KNOX.

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  166.  Janet Tavakoli   Jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/tavakkoli-on-ongoing-fraud-in-financial.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+JessesCafeAmericain+(Jesse's+Café+Américain)  

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  167. HELLO D L ;

    THERE WAS A GLOWING ARTICLE FROM A PROFESSOR FROM HARVARD SCHOOL OF LAW , WHO COULD NOT SAY ENOUGH GOOD WORDS ABOUT THIS FORCED HEALTH CARE UPON THE PEOPLE OF THIS NATION , WITHER THEY WANT IT OR NOT . HE WAS WRITING ON YAHOO NEWS SITE (SIC) , HAVING BEEN THERE AT THE COURT TODAY .

    WHAT ELSE CAN YOU EXPECT OF ONE FROM HARVARD, THAT THIS SCHOOL HAS BEEN LONG TAKEN OVER BY THE MOST UNRIGHTEOUS ONES ON THE FACE OF THIS POOR EARTH . YOU WILL NEVER HEAR THE NAME OF THE GOOD LORD OUR GOD , MENTIONED THERE !

    DON'T WORRY D L  , HERE IS WHAT THE GOOD LORD HAS TO SAY , LISTEN ;

    ISAIAH 10: 1, WOE UNTO THEM THAT DECREE UNRIGHTEOUS DECREES AND WRITE GRIEVOUSNESS
    ( PERVERSENESS ) [WHICH] THEY HAVE PRESCRIBED (MADE INTO THEIR LAWS). 2, TO TURN ASIDE THE NEEDY FROM JUDGEMENT ; AND TO TAKE AWAY THE RIGHT (BILL OF RIGHTS) FROM THE POOR OF MY PEOPLE, THAT WIDOWS MAY BE THEIR PREY; AND [THAT] THEY MAY ROB THE FATHERLESS !

    WHAT IS PRESENT IN THESE DAYS , THEY ARE WRITTEN AND THE LORD IS IN CONTROL TO BRING TO THE FINISH , WHAT HAS BEEN KNOWN , IT WILL ALL COME TO PASS , FOR THE END WILL COME TO THIS GENERATION .

    ALL THE VERY BEST TO YOU D L AND FOR THE OTHERS. D-KNOX.

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  168.  HELLO C R ;

    THANKS FOR THIS INFORMATION C R ;

    AT LEAST SOMEONE IS READY TO TELL THE TRUTH AND WHAT IS REALLY GOING ON IN THIS COUNTRY AND THE LACK OF JUSTICE THERE TOO.

    TO BAD , WE NO LONGER HAVE HONESTY IN GOVERNMENT OR IN THE NEWS MEDIA ANY MORE .

    ALL THE VERY BEST TO YOU C R , YOUR COMMENTS AND CHARTS , THANKS SO MUCH FOR YOUR HONEST SITE . D-KNOX.

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  169. AUD
    1-2, 1-2 not beaten yet
    http://screencast.com/t/sEqBnLz5

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  170.  THANKS DKNOX.I HAD NOT COME ACROSS HER BEFORE BUT SHE IS CERTAINLY IMPRESSIVE AND COMES ACROSS VERY WELL.

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  171. 1st target met-check
    http://screencast.com/t/Ro8t4Aa8ObAq

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  172. if this is a little (2) now, it's an gonna be an expanded flat 3-3-5. c in  progress. target 1.0530

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  173. FWIW AUD 1 min
    it either works or it don't..doh
    http://screencast.com/t/oTLgTUT09NYW

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  174. http://www.cartoonresource.com/umbraco/ImageGen.ashx?image=/432406/amc239ry.jpg&class=full

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  175. That little furry bearded one holding the placard seems vaguely familiar...hmmm

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  176. was on SoH reading BDI's farewell yesterday (another bear capitulates ) and who should turn up talking about Exas and bashing BDI....? Unbelievable

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  177. It..couldn't..possibly....nah...could it?

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  178. AMZN now sporting a PE of 150, PEG ratio of 4.96!  They must be way better than AAPL...

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  179. Talk about a sentiment shift. Can't believe how far we have come since October-November. Even the rational people I read are all bullish now. People have jumped both the ship and the shark and short-term greed is the ruler of the day. We are back to the days where a stock is mentioned on the television and instantly it pops up 2-3% and stays there until the next batch of shorts jump on.

    I keep doing my breathing exercises trying to exercise patience for when this whole thing collapses. I must admit I have jumped in with some small stabs too early, but I need the resolve to wait for the real collapse to begin. This bull run has just about completed its job of convincing EVERYONE that it can't crash again. That is, if one were to blindly read the tape and not pay any attention to the real indicators out there.

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  180. Please, this is a free zone

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  181. They should redo that image and have it where the sheep first think that they can fly and then when they jump, they realize they don't have wings and start dropping like flies. Maybe that would need to be an animated gif, LMAO

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  182. kudos PW! Very well written and nice summary of what I have gathered by following your posts over the last several months

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  183. Bartender, Rocky Mountain Bear Fucker shots for everybody.

    http://www.drinksmixer.com/drink606.html 

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  184.  I'm starting to see some overlap in the Aussie dollar
    Looks like you nailed it bro with the nested 1-2s

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  185. And Da Boyz from GS are waiting for them at the bottom with their wellies (gumboots) on,  ready to take them up the **** one more time

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  186.  Actually only liked it for the Jack
    I don't want any of that other crap in it.

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