We've moved on to the next pub folks. We're well entrenched in a long weekend, the jobs report was a huge miss and the futures have tanked. We're going to be seeing a bright red week ahead, so what better opportunity to move along to another pub to start off a fresh week than this? We'll move a few of the charts from below to the next post, so let's all meet there. The previous pub session (March 24th) was located here.
So here we are at a
fresh pub since the previous one eventually got boring enough that it emptied out. That's what happens when the blogmeister doesn't provide a daily dose of new charts, visions, predictions and/or wave counts. As I'd stated from the beginning, I am not an EW specialist. This space was created mainly out of my own selfish desire to be able to work in a friendly, troll-free environment. This is where I put together analysis that I find to be quite valuable, complete with the charts that apply to that particular study.. The vast majority of the time it's simply reduced to draft form so that I can easily find it later for reference. It's where I produce and keep my 'stuff'.
Occasionally any articles or rants that I feel I'd like to share end up as an article that I publish here, sometimes with the intention of having it published to a wider audience elsewhere. I'm glad some of you have accepted the
opportunity to exchange ideas in a friendly room. The whole idea here
is to help each other. We act like a team here. Those who opt to
disrupt the team's good karma or whose goal it is to attack others won't
last long in here. To be honest, those who feed trolls aren't particularly welcome here either since by doing so they demonstrate that they don't really care much about being able to operate in a clean office. They're not serious enough about being successful in my opinion. This is a business. So without further ado... welcome to a fresh new pub where you're free to post whatever you
like (within reason... you know what I mean). Let's make some money.
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| Grab yourself a cold pint and fire away. |
I'd like to start this one off with a chart that really grabbed my attention this week. This one is courtesy of our friend Pretzel who is in my opinion perhaps the finest all-round talent out there in the world of EWT. In no way is that a slam against any of the other very fine EW analysts out there either. It's simply a reflection of my humble opinion that Pretzel's 'total talent package' is pretty much unsurpassed.
In no way did the author of the chart below suggest that "this is what the count is". It is simply one of the alternatives, one which IMHO seems to have a fairly good chance of representing something fairly close to what might lie ahead. Please take note of the upper annotation on this chart. There is so much wisdom and logic in that thought that it stands to reason that the count below would be just about the most frustrating thing that could ever develop at this dangerous stage of the game. Therefore... that's probably the one! :-)
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| One of several good and reasonable prospects as envisioned by Pretzel Logic. One which represents the greatest degree of investor agony. |
Personally, I can also see the possibility of a H&S emerging which of course would take a few more days to develop properly, and I can also see a perfectly good argument for the markets to head lower immediately on Monday morning. Particularly with the market internals having already deteriorated to such an extent that much more upside could barely be possible with fewer and fewer stocks advancing, or making new highs, or above their own 50 day MA, etc. But the pattern which would provide the greatest degree of "screw 'em all up real good" is represented by the vision above. Until proven otherwise then, I think since the count above represents the greatest possible degree of agony for the masses it is therefore probably very close to the correct count. A special hat tip and "thank you" to Pretzel for his always cooperative nature. Thanks pardner!
In the chart below, we see Elliott Wave Theory at its finest, AR style. In this chart I demonstrate how 1+1+1+1+1=3.
In the chart below, we see Elliott Wave Theory at its finest, AR style. In this chart I demonstrate how 1+1+1+1+1=3.
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| One must learn to think outside the box. To the best of my knowledge that's often the only way it works. |
In the chart below we see that we are potentially witnessing the development of one of the best classic H&S patterns in quite a while. Ideally, a H&S pattern should be formed with the right end of the neckline lower than the left end. Such a set-up is far more bearish than one where the neckline slopes up to the right. The Aussie:Yen cross is certainly on the way to forming such a beast and the pattern will remain alive as long as the candles don't rise above the head.
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| Potentially this could develop into one heck of a nice classic H&S pattern. Almost perfect at the moment. Click here for a live and updating version. If you can't see the annotations, here's the print version. And a much closer look. |
In the chart above, we have a doubly good reason to expect that if the neckline is broken the crash in this currency pair could be very exciting. Here's why. The neckline is already sloping downward. But before the recent low was put in place, there was a previous H&S pattern where the previous neckline was horizontal. Can you see that original grey neckline ok?
So what happened was that in the first H&S pattern the the neckline was broken and undoubtedly some investors were sucked in by it. It was a flop. I'll bet more than just a handful of speculators got caught going short the Aussie and/or long the Yen. I hate to sound cynical, but that is a classic from the Goldman Handbook of Market Wizardry known as Rip Maneuver #666.16HS. The most recent bounce in the pair is currently setting up the final right shoulder. If it works out as planned by yours truly, then the next time the pair drops down to test the neckline it will slice through it like a hot knife through buttah. And of course this produces a measurable move that would drop the pair down to 0.81 'at the minimum'. This is one of the most exciting patterns in all of stockdom that we're seeing developing here. Let's keep our fingers crossed because we can all make some serious dough if this pans out, as a result of its implications. If the Aussie:Yen pair starts to head south with conviction, so will equities with darned near a 99% certainty.
One thing I'm sure all of you know, but I just want to make sure... in no way does this pair know whether or not the Aussie dollar is going to be rising or falling during this entire process. Same with the Yen. All it's saying is that as long as the pair starts to head south to complete the pattern, the Aussie dollar would be under-performing the Yen. In theory both currencies could be rising while that is occurring. Of course the simplest way to get the job done would be with the Aussie falling and the Yen rising. However that outcome isn't necessarily what a "ratio" like this implies. It doesn't know. Nor does it need to know. For the purposes of using this pair as a measure of "risk off" though, it doesn't matter what's happening to the individual currencies. Realistically though, if the pair drops to fulfill the H&S dream pattern, it probably means that the Aussie would be falling and the Yen either falling less hard or perhaps even rising.
This one is getting very, very exciting!
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| Look out below. Just a heads up that there are significant air pockets just beneath the market. This situation exists in every single market I can get volume stats for. |
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| One of the potentially juiciest set-ups we've seen in a long while is in progress. Probably 'into the gap' and then lower. Click here for a live and updating chart. |
..............
All of last week, endless mild hysteria about a falling market..and yet..we still closed net up by the Friday close.
ReplyDeleteMaybe its just me, but I'm tired of it. Really tired.
Few will do it, but if everyone of the online posters would just stare at almost any monthly index chart for an hour, maybe they'll quit over-complicating things. The trend is UP. The algo-bots will be inclined to buy in April, since the monthly cycles will be triggering buy signals.
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The 60min cycle showed some weakness in the last 2 hours of Friday afternoon, maybe we'll open Monday lower, maybe next week will be broadly lower, but to where? Anyone think we're going under 1400 again soon?
What will the fund managers be doing on Monday, when they get their latest tranche of cash? Bonds...no. So..errr...equities it is then.
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As for EW, well, I said it recently, were it a 'free market', EW would probably work pretty good, but its a twisted and manipulated rigged mess of a market. Where are all these EW' posters who ever state that? Instead, its just relentless top calling by the majority of them. Pretzel is at least open to different counts, although I admit, I am no fan of fence sitters, least of all when it comes to posts about the stock market.
....yeah, as I said......real tired of it.
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Good wishes AR.
Same here man. I'm so damned exhausted from the struggle with the conflict between the fact that the charts are rising so robustly when the largest sovereign default in the history of the universe just happened and the global equity markets celebrated the glorious event of Greece's giving birth to a dead baby by rising for 4 months at the annual rate of "double in a year". That's what exhausts me... pure illogic. You are dead right, there's nothing bearish on a monthly chart and they are surely rising. They shouldn't be but they are. This very conflict is what inspired me to write an article last week wherein I put words to paper that I still can't believe I wrote. It must have been some evil gremlin that snuck onto my computer last week because surely I didn't write those words? I haven't published it yet because I need to see a bit more evidence. But for the time being, it seems the writing is on the wall. Spain is about to wreak havoc on the world and the markets will probably double again in celebration.
ReplyDeleteLet's look at how you both are feeling for a moment. I am hearing a sense os exhaustion and frustration with what appears to be going against all logic.
ReplyDeletePerhaps your bodies and feelings are reacting the way they are because you are in your ego... For better or worse. When that happens to me, and I notice how stuck and exhausted I feel I surrender.
Now surrendering does not mean you have to go long. But perhaps you might consider pulling away from compulsively following the market, have a few beers with real friends in a real bar discuss anything other than the market, or go skiing or become engaged in some other activity.
BY surrendering to what is without expectation upon it's performance, you release it and release yourself from it.
Surrender to what is and listen to the very real hints and suggestions coming from your own selves to let it be.
The art of manifestation has basic steps, the first bring intention. What many people forget to do is the most important step... release the intention and any expectation of outcome.
It is only when we release that the intention manifests. Ever have that happen? Let go of wanting something and then it happens?
Good luck and be healthy.
AR...love ya man...You're making the same mistake that most scrupulous and honorable folks make (I think I may even fall in there somewhere)...You are applying your very correct values of honor, right and wrong, logic, and common sense to a realm that has lost any semblance of propriety. While the market machinations have always been somewhat dictated by those who's behavior is questionable at best, these same people (and the people who they work for) have dug such a deep hole in loose sand that they are desperate to not have the walls fall in and bury them. It is beyond business as usual for them. I really do believe that they are worried that their machine, and hence their basis of power may crumble.
ReplyDeleteThe recent legislation and Executive Order of March 16th, without a doubt, lay the groundwork for preserving a hollow institution while stripping it of its character and ideals that are its foundation (whether genuine or merely perceived is irrelevant -- perception is all that matters.) Currency is their currency, with control of it being the basis of their power. They will manipulate it as much as they deem fit or are able to preserve that power. They are not invincible though. If that were the case a more laissez-faire approach would be expected, and they'd take any downturn in stride as a virtuous cycle. But it is apparent that any thought of an inconvenient free market is to be taken as a mortal threat to them at this point. Which leads me to believe that maybe, just maybe, we're not privy to the whole story...nah...the Chairman wouldn't lie.But, remember that the ability to manipulate does not guaranty success. Just about everything in their list of creations are merely constructs...legal fictions. Throughout history, over and over, immoral constructs fell to natural law or divine inspiration. I think I understand and share your, as well as many others, frustrations. Things may work out....they may have to capitulate in order to preserve any vestige of what they cling to...that too has happened repeatedly...but it's likely not to happen for awhile...just hang in there...I promise to send you a case of canned haggis if ya do.
Nice DL...that sounds like Taoism ?
ReplyDeletehttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ITndE5kAi3k/T3gqErUB8OI/AAAAAAAAKHI/jDoEFWNPQ4U/s1600/Paint.jpg Weekly FTSE.Unlike the US markets the hanging man candle a few weeks ago did offer a good warning
ReplyDeleteHmm, that all sounds nice and stuff, but tell that to the 50% of spanish youth who are unemployed.
ReplyDeleteThey are ready to burn that nation to the ground. The time -and opportunity, for spirutual development is long past now. The general population are in complete denial, nothing will change.
Give it up.
Couple of very simple GDOW charts. I've said before the GDOW may be the best remaining market metric for social mood. Here's why (from Wikipedia):
ReplyDeleteThe Global Dow (GDOW) is a 150-stock index of corporations from around the world, created by Dow Jones & Company. Only blue-chip stocks are included in the index.
Like its famous progenitor, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU), stocks in The Global Dow are selected by senior editors of The Wall Street Journal. Joining them for this new index were Dow Jones Newswires senior editors in the three major regions of the globe. But unlike the Dow everyone is familiar with, The Global Dow is much bigger—150 stocks rather than 30—and its components are weighted equally rather than by price. All 30 Dow industrial stocks are included in The Global Dow, as well as some from the Dow Jones Transportation and Utility averages.
The biggest difference, however, is in concept and purpose. The Global Dow tracks leading companies from around the world in all industries, selected not just for current size and reputation but also for their potential.
The Global Dow covers both developed and emerging markets, recognizing that far-flung areas of the world are becoming more closely linked and more interdependent, and that wealth creation is no longer concentrated in a few countries. In addition, it includes companies from emerging sectors, such as alternative energy.
The components of The Global Dow are equally weighted. This means that price movements of the larger stocks have no greater impact on index performance that those of the smaller stocks.
Short version -- the GDOW is harder to influence and manipulate. With that in mind, here are the charts.
http://i.imgur.com/oHXtI.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/8MOLM.jpg
Love it. It's the key to not being 'abused' by markets. To invest without becoming invested. To release attachment. Whatever happens is okay.
ReplyDeleteWe become invested in people or markets when we start believing that what they do or say affects our worth or our reputation somehow, that it devalues or shames or humiliates us personally. When we recognize that their behavior only reflects on them, not us, and refuse to be seduced into believing otherwise, we become uninvested and free.
We can have money in the markets yet remain completely uninvested.
Haha... I see you noticed the invitation to copy and paste your comment from point A to point B. Thanks for doing that papa.
ReplyDeleteGreat observation CR. Here's why I think the FTSE might indeed be the canary:
ReplyDeleteBank of England - annual rate of printing in the past 3 months = 67%
European Central Bank - annual rate of printing in past 3 mths. = 89%
From Nov. 25th through to the March peak in each individual stock exchange, the following markets have behaved thusly:
Annual rate in increase in the FTSE since Nov. 25th= 72.96%
Annual rate of increase in the S&P since Nov. 25th = 82.24%
Annual rate of increase in the RUT since Nov. 25th = 104.21%
Annual rate in increase in the NDX since Nov. 25th = 116.80%
Annual rate in increase in the CAC since Nov. 25th = 128.21%
Annual rate in increase in the DAX since Nov. 25th = 159.25%
*As a passing interest, the average of these rates = 110.61%
Of all 6 of the major bourses named above, the London Exchange was been the weakest by a wide margin.
I'm trying to wrap my head around your message DL. I know you're right but my skull is thick. The one incident in my life that immediately sprung to mind was something that happened when I was about 6 years old.
ReplyDeleteMy mother never knew her own parents, both of whom died as a victim of the Spanish Flu. My mother was one year old at the time. But my mother's grandmother (her mother's mother) survived and raised my mom. 'Grandma' (my great grandmother) continued on to live into her 90's.
Since my mother lost both of her own parents as a baby, it is understandable that as she grew she began to recognize and cherish the fact that all 4 of her mother's brothers survived the pandemic. She was particularly thankful that all 4 of them visited their little niece often throughout the remainder of their lives. None of them were wealthy men but by golly they were sure good people in that they made certain that their mother and small niece were never hungry or in need. I had the extreme pleasure and honor to have briefly gotten to know all 4 of these men, my mother's uncles.
All 4 of these men were jovial types, always in good spirits and always laughing about something or other. One day when I was about 6, I was having fun with one of them. He had said something in a language that he had made up. It was nonsense but it sounded so funny that I wanted to learn how to say it. It might almost be compared to Jabberwocky, except that there wasn't a single word of English in it.
So my uncle sat down and proceeded to teach it to me. For an hour we sat there together as he taught me one line, then the next, then the next... but I just could not seem to string them all together in the proper sequence. I got frustrated and my great uncle detected that. He said to me: "Danny, I promise you something. You've worked at this for an hour now and all the lines are in your head. You're a smart kid. When you go to sleep tonight, you will wake up in the morning and be able to spout out the entire thing word for word without any problem at all. But what you need to do now is forget about it... walk away from it for now." In a nice way, he was telling me to 'detach from the challenge for a while... to release myself from my own stubbornness to learn it all in an instant, in one sitting'.
The next morning when I woke up I absolutely nailed. it. I was so proud of myself that I ran to find my great uncle and repeated the whole thing to him. He just burst out laughing with joy. But he also reiterated that sometimes we have to just back off for a bit from a particularly difficult challenge and kind of "detach for a while, re-set". The lesson learned was to "never give up, but don't kill yourself in battle either".
About the "never give up" part... did I mention that he was Irish? lol
But I think this is what you're getting at.
Thanks for sharing that AR...I think all of us folks with thick skulls need to follow that lesson often in our lives...I think that I need to posterize it actually.
ReplyDeleteOT: I just found out (well maybe a couple of months ago) that a devilish Scot "invented" the modern stock market...damned Scots...absconded shares are definitely easier to hide than absconded cattle.
Thanks AR,interesting stats.I also posted a chart of the UK banks sector,which has a double top on the 50% retracement.I see Sid is expecting a big move down in sterling.
ReplyDeleteBingo! Sometimes our will gets in the way.
ReplyDeleteStep away, and all of a sudden the girl starts chasing you! Funny how that works!
The Universe is playful!
Perhaps burning a nation to the ground is part of spiritual development?
ReplyDeleteI'm simply saying that when we feel stuck and the energy isn't moving, as voiced by AR and his frustration, perhaps if we step back and then come into it again, the dynamics change.
Spain's youthful unemployed have been stuck for quite a while. The bottled frustration has turned into public anger.
It will happen here as well.
The EU needs over a trillion$ to shore up the system. Where is the money coming from? Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Greece, France, Italy?
I'm frustrated too. I can see like many posters here what the future holds for the market and I thought it would arrive sooner than later. So I have to admit to my miscalculations and realize the flow is detouring and meandering and not a straight shoot.
So time to step back and watch without attachment to outcome. Doesn't mean I have to go long. Others can and will and will profit handsomely. They are perhaps better traders than me. I salute their abilities! It doesn't mean I am a loser. Far from it.
The person whose ego gets in the way from their ability to see the whole picture and overestimates the power of their own will, will lose. The challenge is to always keep the go in check. And that dear friends is a lifelong process and perhaps is a huge part of what life's learning is all about!
That's why we laugh at the bumper sticker, "He who dies with the most toys, wins!".
We know it's not true and full of folly.
Lol... was that Scot's name Mason?
ReplyDeleteThe point I'm trying to make is that its pointless to try to hope for a positive outcome.
ReplyDeleteThere IS a point at which
Part of me finds it completely hillarious at how well the central bankers have managed to keep this system ticking over. Its all a literal CONfidence game of course, most know that. The system is built on a giant CON of paper backed by nothing, only for 'them' to print ever more, and devalue the original paper to effectively zero.
Maybe its just another stray random area, but I've followed a lot of good 'enlightened' people over the last decade, and it kinda saddens me to see them keep trying, to keep touting the hope.
All those maniacs who have been touting Dow' 36000 (or something in that range) for a couple years now, they might be right. Its largely up to the Bernanke and his friends, can he convince the masses that 'its gonna be okay'?
Tired of being edited.
Ok, maybe it's time I took my uncle's advice once again. Meaning yours too of course.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, the more thought I give to it, you're absolutely right. I can take a breather from it by pretending for a while that I have no idea why the markets of the world "could" collapse. Because for all we know, maybe they won't. So I just looked in the mirror and said "Just chill out Dan. Back off."
So now that I've released myself from my agony, I suddenly have the urge to get out there and chase that pretty woman who I'm not supposed to chase. I'm incorrigible, lol.
"Tired of being edited."
ReplyDeletePD, that was the "first" time. Your final 3 word sentence was just flat out inflamatory and a totally unnecessary slap at the end of what was until then a good comment on your part. I just want to stop that kind of thing here before it gets started. I've seen way too much of that type of stuff on Danno's site. You're free to do it there of course. No hard feelings, but I'm just so sensitive to insulting words these days that I didn't think Divinelove deserved to be told to "give it up". That's insulting.
Your point is well taken. I think I referred to it in my post above nebulously as the market "detour" and "meandering" I had not fully given credit to, thanks to the central bankers you succinctly pointed to in your email.
ReplyDeleteThe market will fail. It's on an unsustainable path. We know this. I just didn't fully consider the arsenal of means by which the central bankers could keep it indefinitely afloat.
At some point, all detours will be blocked and there will be no way to go but doooowwwwwnnnn.
The whole process can be frustrating to watch because we know what will eventually happen. We also know what is happening now lacks integrity and is making a bad situation worse. It can be infuriating!
LOL! Go get her!
ReplyDeleteHave some fun AR and let the world turn on it's own for a while!
Crude oil could be leading the way here and signaling a possible trend change. Since the SPX and Oil have been going the same way for some time now, it seems as though this could be indicative of what's to come...
ReplyDeletehttp://silversaxena.blogspot.com/2012/03/is-crude-oil-signaling-trend-change.html
Great post, Papa! Your argument/rationale for considering the GDOW and great charts trigger my hope that US markets "get real", while at the same time remind me of my Wave 2 PTSD. Lol! Thanks again for posting!
ReplyDeleteThanks for transferring it over here Rob ;-)
ReplyDeleteCOME ON D KNOX....
ReplyDeleteFEEL FREE TO TAKE A BREAK FROM THIS BLOG ANYTIME. NO NEED FOR FINAL GOODBYES!
YOU ARE ALWAYS WELCOME HERE! COME VISIT WHEN YOU ARE SO MOVED.
YOU REMAIN IN THE HEARTS OF MANY...
BE WELL...
Without a doubt. :)
ReplyDeleteThanks for having us over here at the Pub AR. Now if only these damn markets would actually cooperate for once...
ReplyDeleteAwesome! Canned haggis made it on to the list of the 14 Strangest Canned Foods. I imagine mom's home cooking is much better but hey, who am I to look a gift horse in the mouth, lol
ReplyDeletePerhaps... Taoism is about watching and being in the flow. I tend to not adhere 100% to that practice, as truly the only things that flow with the river are dead fish and lumps of wood.
ReplyDeleteAnd I ain't dead yet! So I got a little fight left in me yet.
The challenge is to make sure our own ego attachments do not preclude us from seeing the flow (eddies, eg corrective waves, and all)
The Buddhists call it the Middle Way
http://themiddleway.net/?p=230
But it sure is thrilling to be competitive and win, isn't it? Ego has propelled humanity forward as well... No doubt about it!
Time for a real beer Rob!
ReplyDeleteForget about the market! Let Her come to you!
She will be begging for you to come play with Her before you know it. So go out and enjoy real life, feel good and joyous!
No prob bud. Here's something I'd like your opinion on if you have time. I think it's pretty unreasonable to think the markets are going to head straight up until the day after the election. And Bernanke absolutely has to launch QE3 at some point, otherwise the FED will basically have thrown in the towel if they don't. Somebody has to purchase the never-ending supply of bonds and it absolutely has to be the FED... unless rates rise substantially in order to make the new issues even half-assed attractive. In order to be able to justify more QE, he's going to need a reason. There certainly is no obvious reason right now, not with all the great news that the gov't propaganda branches are spewing each week. So he's going to need a crisis. And of course that would be associated with a market decline of some degree or other. Probably a very, very fast one to instill the "fear" that he's going to need as the fuel for his arguments "for".
ReplyDeleteSo what kind of timing would work best do you think? If there is a reasonably scary pullback, they're going to need time after that to rebuild the markets with gusto in order not to hurt Obama too much. I've also noted here and elsewhere that the last week of June - July 4th week has marked a significant turning point in the markets 3 years in a row now. I'd expect that to happen again this year if for no other reason than "why not, it seems to be in the playbook".
these are Gann cycles based on divisions of the year http://mysquigglylines.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/s-geometric-harmonic-period.html
ReplyDeleteGo wrestle a grizzly !
ReplyDeleteabsolutely,I know a lot about Buddhism (inasfar as one can "know" anything about it !) but not much about Taoism,but your comments were very similar to something Wayne Dyer wrote in an excerpt from his new book on the Tao.
ReplyDeleteI read Dyers very first book, Your Errogenous Zones, and I have seen him lately on PBS television. He sure has perfected his content and delivery, but 30 years will do that.... Lol!
ReplyDeleteYou're a good man CR! Buddhism lookin good on ya! You handle the clowns with grace...
http://rationalinsolvency.com/2012/04/gdow040112apf.png
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeletethis wasnt the quote but is close
Later. I'm busy right now. A stranger just walked in to watch some TV. I'm not sure if I should ask him to leave or kinda just... you know, hope he just leaves on his own.
ReplyDeleteWhat about me?
ReplyDeleteBy the way, I never studied Buddhism. Does it show? lol
Have you ever noticed how many Scots there are in politics, no matter where in the English speaking world you go? Same with Irish, but Scots are definitely aggressive when it comes to politics and wielding some power. Both my brothers married girls of Scottish ancestry.
ReplyDeleteJeez... I just noticed something that I thought I'd share with those of you who are dropping in to the pub from time to time. The last pub we were at got so many page views that it jumped to 'second place' among all posts ever made here in the brief period of time since this blog was created (less than 4 months ago). The only post that has more was an article that for some unexplained reason got over 1100 views in one day from a private investment club. So although you might think we're a very small group here, people are obviously interested in what all of you have to say.
ReplyDeleteSo continue to be nice, lol.
Christian Perfect Stock Alert) is back. he gave up a year or so ago having been consistently bearish,always liked his approach though http://www.perfectstockalert.com/index.php/nightly-market-analysis-videos.html
ReplyDeleteerr not always! but thanks !
ReplyDeleteThanks bud. That's an excellent place to be looking. In fact I wrote the DAX:$E1FIN article based on the importance of watching the financials and how they are relating to the indices themselves. Here's the daily chart from that study. Amazingly, the DAX is 'still' outperforming the entire European financial sector. IOW, the stock markets in Europe continue to hold up while the banks crumble around them. And I know that you know what that means.
ReplyDeleteYou need a week in the mountains with Tbone BRo !
ReplyDeleteIt's funny... when I first saw him show up at the gong show I was worried that he was going to be a rabble-rowser. Quite the opposite. He's a sharp guy and I like him. He'd be so welcome here. And he certainly doesn't deserve the shit and abuse he gets over there. He'd be left alone here and that's a good thing, because I always want to hear what he has to say.
ReplyDeleteNice helpful site he had.
ReplyDeleteI was watching his videos for awhile after a friend who followed him diligently recommended him.
It was kind of painful to watch him spitefully shorting the Nasdaq in the face of all those bear swallowing gaps in late 2010 - 2011.
We all kind of realized the hard way that the old rules were changing.
CR, I'm not kidding you, the first time I saw one of those beasts from about 5 feet away I was maybe 2 years old (from the safety of my dad's car). It was here.
ReplyDeleteI think it has something to do with either being a politician or a thief on the run....hmmm....I now see the redundancy. Glasgow was the other center of academia in opposition to the Italians. Which tells me they had a pretty nifty intelligence network. Plus let's face it...there are only so many things you can do with a sheep until you're committing a cardinal sin. Plus the highlands are pretty much a moonscape unless "101 Things To Do in Peat Bogs" is your favorite read. So, politicking and inventing seems like a pretty good alternative. I've only spent a couple of weeks over there, and I have to say that walking down the Royal Mile was the most comforting moment I can ever remember. I felt like I was home.
ReplyDelete"I have to say that walking down the Royal Mile was the most comforting moment I can ever remember. I felt like I was home."
ReplyDeleteSweet! My daughter was competing at the British Royal Henley Regatta on the Thames a few years back (won it) and she took the time to hop over to Ireland all by herself. She said the same sort of thing afterward.
Yeah, his was one of the bear blogs that blew up in the Wave Formerly Known As P2. I liked his updates too, right or wrong, because he seemed to love that stuff, and because every one was a crash course in candles.And oh yeah -- he never asked for money.
ReplyDeleteYour daughter is quite the rower...You must be a very proud papa. Kids are absolutely amazing...they are a gift to be cherished. :)
ReplyDeleteI actually enjoy haggis...It's actually OK....single malt helps though (before and after).
ReplyDeleteYou do an excellent job of it, and you are always appreciated, cuz your observations are genuinely thoughtful and learned. So just get used to the fact that folks respect you, and are interested in what you have to say.
ReplyDeletesecond that!
ReplyDeleteNice!! Thanks~~
ReplyDeleteYou've been drinking tonight haven't you? You and CR are drunk.
ReplyDelete-------------------------OR------------------------
"Anybody seen 'oneofdaworst"? Somebody go fetch that little pecker and bring him back here. There's something here I want him to read!"
---------
Thanks guys. I want to believe what you said but it's real difficult to really believe something like that sometimes. In any case, (blushing a bit), thanks.
Truthfully, it sounds to me like haggis would taste great. Gonna have to make sure I try it some time.
ReplyDeleteYes they are to be cherished. I've got a great big good looking son too, who's her equal. I got lucky ;-
ReplyDeleteDefinitely had some beers this weekend, DL, thank you for the kind words. They are much appreciated :)
ReplyDeleteI agree with that, the Fed must continue to support the bond market, otherwise the 200T in interest rate swaps that have been written will blow up all of the banks that have written them. This and servicing the debt is already 20% of the US's budget, so rates cannot be allowed to move higher simply for this reason alone.
ReplyDeleteAs for the timing of the decline, I agree that it will be swift and as bearish as many of us may be, I'm actually wondering given how many bears have "capitulated" and gone bullish, I doubt many will catch the decline. Would not be surprised if it takes place in the form of a flash crash or July waterfall selloff type event. This would not only be swift, but would be unexpected and could possibly allow big ben to step in with his next measure of market support in April/May/June to support the market into the election.
But the real question is what will be the catalyst for this so-called "crisis?" The ECB is already all-in with LTRO 1/2, and is out of bullets this next time around when Spain becomes the new Greece...If it just the AAPL bubble bursting it may not be such a big deal, but if it is Europe, I wonder if even big ben's bullets will be enough to put a floor underneath the market.
I just want to draw your attention to the latest chart above and the accompanying dialogue. There is an outstanding H&S pattern developing in the Aussie:Yen currency pair. If the pattern completes and the neckline is broken, the implications are pretty much guaranteed. The correlation between this pair and equities is nearly 100%. If the pair falls and breaks that neckline, equities are almost assuredly going to fall because the appetite for risk will be evaporating very quickly. It would represent the best "short equities" signal so far this year.
ReplyDeleteTY for the kind words, AR. Appreciate ya! :)
ReplyDeleteD KNOX, I REPLIED TO YOU THE OTHER DAY WHEN I SAW YOUR POST ON DANERIC'S AND THOUGHT YOUR IDEAS OF UNIQUE EVENTS WERE THE TYPE OF EVENTS THAT SHOULD BE USED TO SET CYCLES TOO RATHER THAN THE OBSCURE MOVIES OR WHATEVER THAT EWI ATTEMPTS TO USE.
ReplyDeleteWhere? Where did I ever have a kind word for the likes of you? lol
ReplyDeleteYou're welcome my man. You're the kind of people I like to associate with. Sharp and helpful... and just so you know, all the peeps who hang around here would always welcome any comment you might want to throw onto this blog. Anytime. You'll never pay for a beer in this house. Take your pick:
Excellent thoughts. Thanks. That's what I was probing for... some feedback.
ReplyDeleteI think the decline will be frighteningly swift, otherwise the "fear factor" won't be high enough. BUT... I think the chairman and his Goldman cronies might be a bit nervous about it getting out of control unless they've planned it out very well. Even then, it's a very dangerous gambit to be playing with. I think they're in a bit of trouble here to be honest. Surely they can't just run 'er straight up for another 7 months until the election.
You are so friggen evolved you dont need to study nothin! You da man!
ReplyDeleteI mean, the only real way this thing is gonna be able to continue on up is for AAPL to continue its parabolic run. But when you consider that it has essentially gone sideways for 3 weeks now, it appears as though it's running out of steam and buyers. I wonder, and I posted about this sometime back, what would happen if the indices were re-weighted just as AAPL was falling - this would force even more selling - but would they really do this at such an inopportune time given that AAPL is 17% of the Nasdaq?
ReplyDeleteThere really aren't any bears left, and almost everyone is expecting this thing to hit 1440 before any real correction, but given that the Dow rising wedge is near support, oil has already broken support, AUD is only 100 pips away from breaking critical support, AUD/JPY has that beautiful H&S that you pointed out, it seems like a reversal from somewhere around this level seems to be more likely as it would leave nearly everyone from participating and a swift drop to your air gap level on the SPY near 1260ish/200MA seems possible. But, until the Dow breaks wedge support we must respect the uptrend. But just look at the solid bounces it's gotten off of it lately, will the selloff be just as violent when it finally breaks?
See the decline has to be swift if you think about it too right. Not many are still short up here, but say the market makes another July type selloff move, since almost no one will catch it because they're expecting higher prices, then everyone will get super short after a nice 10-15% move south and then the new shorts will get their faces ripped off. I strongly suspect that oil is leading the way, which if true, there may be some strong volatility coming in April, which as a trader I would love to see the markets zigzag a few % each day instead of this mind-numbing price action as of late...
ReplyDeleteWhat no one remembers, and there's a good chart out there, that I saw some weeks back about the different QEs in place, is that the July waterfall selloff allowed the ECB to step in and begin buying sovereign debt (and you know what day they announced it?)
ReplyDelete- August 8th, it's what put a bid under the ES and everything else that night. It was announced a few hours after the close as ES had sold off another 30+ handles since the close. Oil quickly bounced from the 76 level as did everything else. So if the selloff is swift and unexpected and quickly rattles market participants, then the next phase of emergency QE can be ushered in.
Btw AR, your theoretical target for the new shoulder on the AUD/JPY was hit on today's opening, so the next test of that H&S neckline is coming soon early this week?
ReplyDeleteCopper's consolidation period looks to be coming to an end latest by the end of the month as its triangle gets tighter and tighter, a downside break should weigh heavily on equities and risk.
ReplyDelete"...since almost no one will catch it because they're expecting higher
ReplyDeleteprices, then everyone will get super short after a nice 10-15% move
south and then the new shorts will get their faces ripped off, which
will help force the markets back up."
Are you suggesting there might be some evil force out there that has the power to ignite a rally once everybody is short? LOL
I hadn't noticed that but I can see it in the futures now. I'm not sure the little burst higher is finished. It just doesn't look finished at the moment. But at the same time there's now a pretty hefty gap right underneath it. So maybe that right shoulder is finished already? I sure wasn't expecting it to happen this quickly. I was thinking a couple more days would be needed for it to rise a bit then fall to the neckline. But you could be right... it 'did' rise pretty good at the open.
ReplyDeleteJust to clarify -- and it may just be my bear bias talking -- but since intervention has likely distorted the American markets as a social mood metric, I think it's possible that we are well in to P3, and that what everyone initially thought was the P2 top actually was. And this bear-killing wave is not an extension or continuation of P2, but Intermediate 2 of P3. And that's why it lasted so long. (Intervention caused it to appear to overshoot and supposedly bust the big count.)
ReplyDeleteWhich means the next wave could stun to the down side because it could actually be Intermediate 3 of P3.
Euro is on the move down
ReplyDeleteI've sure got my eye on that Aussie:Yen cross too (the bottom chart above).
ReplyDeleteWell if you take a look at how many times the 1100 area was tested combined with the massive amount of NYSE short interest that was built up last fall, everyone got too bearish and short way late to the game, and that's when the faces were ripped off in the 20% October rally.
ReplyDeleteNow NYSE short interest is at a 4 year low, so perhaps we'll have a similar scenario play out?
I wouldn't doubt it at all. Maximum pain... that's their gig.
ReplyDeleteTank it quickly, get everyone short, add massive daily volatility and then force shorts to cover + QE, sounds like a good recipe to me. Only the pro traders win as greed/fear rule the day.
ReplyDeleteAny chance we EVER get another day where the SPX doesn't just melt-up?
ReplyDeleteIt's so hard to answer that question without being cynical. It's rather infuriating alright, even for those holding longs because of the overnight manipulations that pretty much guarantee everybody gets whipped one way or the other. If I were holding long right now I'd be nervous as hell and probably would have bailed at the open this morning. Is the NASDAQ going to put in its 14th green week in a row, during the same 14 weeks when Greece defaulted? Geezus.
ReplyDeletebounced off your neckline so far and commodities are ripping higher at the moment.
ReplyDeleteStrange how the DOW is a major underperformer so far. We have another marginal new high in SPY. 1420-1440 is a major resistance zone and it will probably get probed before any reasonable correction. First day of month and quarter AND tax refunds AND IRS deadlines. All the dumb money has to pay up and chase the momentum. This is possibly the worst place to be buying all the stocks that had great first quarters.
ReplyDeleteI am personally looking to start shorting individual names like NFLX. I think they may just be ready to drop a major GRPN-like bomb on the market.
I'd say that with the FED basically having bought the entire market up to this level including 14 straight up weeks in the NDX that they're just setting it up for a worse correction or crash than would otherwise have been necessary. There's nobody to sell to.so I guess they're just going to continue to pump it up until there 'is' somebody to sell to. Hopefully no buyers show up and the bankers are left holding the bags of their own shit. As it should be ;-)
ReplyDeleteWell not exactly. The neckline was formed with last Friday's close and it's still working on that higher right shoulder, just as per plan. I figured it would take a day or two to form... "IF" it's going to end up as shown at all. So far it's working perfectly.
ReplyDeleteYou are correct, not sure what I was looking at...
ReplyDeleteNo buyers showing up -- if there's anything to these social mood waves, and we are where I think we are (well into P3), that is exactly how things will go down. People just won't get in a mood to buy.
ReplyDeleteThere were 3 red days last week and 3 the week before. I hope you savored it. By modern standards that was a mega-bear market. We got a little Grizzly Adams playtime.
ReplyDeleteIt seems a lot of people are looking for a top in equities this week and i guess i'm one of them.
ReplyDeleteThe 1434 area is the the most likely top since 1440 is really being targeted. Any way, with stops in
place its a good opportunity to short equities imho.
Nenner had metals making a low this week or early next, but, almost certainly, gold will not
exceed its Dec lows, this time around so this one is a little dicey. When cycles don't mark a bottom in price
its anyone's guess how the low will be established ( if the cycle is valid at all ). Have a great week.
http://wwweminischool.wordpress.com/2012/03/24/very-important-market-update/
What really irks me is that Greece gives birth to a dead baby and the entire neighborhood celebrates the blessed event with a party that's now into its 19th week. I can hardly wait until the second Spanish Inquisition gets started.
ReplyDeleteAnother Plague would be likely be like a catapult under the market.
ReplyDeleteOk, I'll take your word for it. I just shorted, lol.
ReplyDeleteThe last one killed two of my grand parents so I'm really looking forward to the next one. But yeah, with the logic we're seeing today a pandemic that wipes out half of Europe should be the catapult for another party.
ReplyDeleteYeah, i know, with everyone looking for a turn it rarely happenzz. We'll see!
ReplyDeleteBut I'd stay away from life insurance companies.
ReplyDeleteHow come? They'd be bailed out just fine. Can't lose with insurance companies ;-)
ReplyDeleteBut of course! Silly me -- thinking inside the box again.
ReplyDeleteChart.
ReplyDeletehttp://i.imgur.com/xdLWu.jpg
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-O0_aiOaQCCA/T3r2_2jnIYI/AAAAAAAAKKA/yEDeNO6uWg8/s1600/Paint.jpg
ReplyDeleteGod employs several translators; some pieces are translated by age, some by sickness, some by war, some by justice
ReplyDeleteWow... never heard that before... beautiful! And a chart to go with!
ReplyDeleteYou don't tug on Superman's cape. You don't spit into the wind. You don't pull the mask off that ol' Lone Ranger and you don't short Apple.
ReplyDeleteThat daily GDOW chart has just about everything a bear would want to see.
ReplyDelete-- CLEAR impulse down from May to October
-- CLEAR A-B-C correction obeying corrective channel (slight fop over the top)
-- 62% retrace of drop
-- CLEAR negative divergence in RSI and in MACD
-- Index recently busted below lower channel supporting the rally from mid-December
My most bullishly optimistic scenario would be low slope ED to complete the 5th wave. That could stretch things out for a while. A strong upward surge would pretty much convince me that intervention has completely broken market forces and EWT should be used only with an extreme bullish bias.
Another rule of thumb is:
ReplyDeleteYou don't tug on Superman's cape. You don't spit into the wind. You
don't pull the mask off that ol' Lone Ranger and you don't mess around with Rimm.
It's always better when it rhymes.
ReplyDeleteIt's just gotta be. Because the move down off the April high is a clear fiver. Kinda like this 3-waver here.
ReplyDelete...several times.
ReplyDeleteNice chart Papa. It's telling the same story as CR's chart just above yours. As well, you might want to take a second look at that Aussie:Yen chart above on the post. If that H&S pattern pans out and the neckline is broken, it definitely signals a loss of appetite for risk. When that pair rolls lower, so do equities, every time.
ReplyDelete"A strong upward surge would pretty much convince me that intervention
ReplyDeletehas completely broken market forces and EWT should be used only with an
extreme bullish bias."
Doc, I'm having those same evil thoughts these days too. Black magic and witches spells can have that effect on us mere mortals. But I draw your attention to a comment I made to CR way down below. I almost get the sense nobody even bothered to read it except CR. But this list of stats makes it pretty damned clear, there is a relationship between central bank printing and the fairytale 14 week long ramp up in stocks. Here's my conclusion: As long as the central banks "have to" or "want to" print money, equities are headed higher. Period. To hell with my bearish bias. To hell with EWT. I'll copy that comment here so you don't have to go searching for it:
======
Great observation CR. Here's why I think the FTSE might indeed be the canary:
Bank of England - annual rate of printing in the past 3 months = 67%
European Central Bank - annual rate of printing in past 3 mths. = 89%
From Nov. 25th through to the March peak in each individual stock exchange, the following markets have behaved thusly:
Annual rate of increase in the FTSE since Nov. 25th= 72.96%
Annual rate of increase in the S&P since Nov. 25th = 82.24%
Annual rate of increase in the RUT since Nov. 25th = 104.21%
Annual rate of increase in the NDX since Nov. 25th = 116.80%
Annual rate of increase in the CAC since Nov. 25th = 128.21%
Annual rate of increase in the DAX since Nov. 25th = 159.25%
*As a passing interest, the average of these rates = 110.61%
Of all 6 of the major bourses named above, since the Nov. 25th bottom the London Exchange has been the weakest by a wide margin.
If Iriqous stops by wondering his thoughts on Gold. Didn't we basically hit Nenner's target area today?
ReplyDeleteNever mind on the target. Read chart wrong. Still would like Iriquois on Gold.
ReplyDeleteThanks. What a ramp it has been. IMO this movie clip sums up the experience for bears:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceUPN1yE1iM&feature=youtu.be
As you know SJ, Iriquois is a good shit and he drops in pretty often. He likes the Strongbow we serve in here, lol. He'll probably see your comment, hang in there.
ReplyDeleteWe have an 8/21 EMA cross on the 30 minute SPY chart. I have a stop above on the short from yesterday if anybody cares (would also be the wave 1 arear so should hold if we are bearish, though FED crap doesn't care about waves, so that is why it is tighter than just the midpivot).
ReplyDeleteLMAO.... yes sir, that's pretty much what it's been like. Have you ever seen a video like this that shows a trader's reactions as he watches his account literally blow up right before his very eyes? If not for the fact that it's so incredibly devastating for the guy, it would be funnier than hell. I have several of these bookmarked, but this is a good one.
ReplyDeleteWe also have a bearish butterfly on the 8 hour GBP/USD chart off the 4/2/2012 high, and so far USDCAD is still holding that pivot from yesterday.
ReplyDeleteSJ you seem to be really involved in the currency crosses. I assume you do it because you trade them. If I traded them I'd be in much better shape to contribute to your offerings. But alas, the only one I focus on is the aussie:Yen, and not because I trade it but only because it's a stunningly good measure of the appetite for risk and therefore has a remarkably accurate correlation with the S&P. Wish I could contribute a bit more to you, Greg and DK about the currencies. But the truth is, at the moment I'm not as informed about the various pairs as you guys are.
ReplyDeleteMy pleasure. That was John Donne, English renaissance poet, womanizer, and holy man from his famous 'for whom the bell tolls' meditation
ReplyDeleteFOMC minutes have got the dollar yen on the move
ReplyDelete"I almost get the sense nobody even bothered to read it except CR."
ReplyDeleteIf you're not sure anything and everything you post on the Interwebs is read by lots of people, just try posting your home phone or VISA card number. Oh, and I'll need the expiration date and that little three-digit number on the back too. ;)
And every thing else I now see
ReplyDeleteWeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
ReplyDeleteRisk off is all we need to trouble ourselves with this afternoon
ReplyDeleteI can appreciate a good strongbow, but it's too sweet for my taste. I am much more of a hop-head.
ReplyDeleteThe talk in the media right now is so ridiculously reminiscent of the dot com bubble i keep having flashbacks. They throw up a parabolic chart like PCLN or AAPL and they justify that it's okay because these companies have incredible growth and they will for the foreseeable future. Isn't the market supposed to be a discounting mechanism and not shorts trampling over each other trying to pick tops?
ReplyDeletePoint taken. I keep forgetting there are other visitors here besides the ones we see commenting. I can assure you, I'd publish Wagner's home address before I'd publish my home phone number, lol.
ReplyDeleteMy new short zone would be a break of 1395, with a stop of 1404. Minimize the loss.
ReplyDeleteHad almost gone to take a nap on the whole idea after last two days action. Jobs report just may create a huge gap down on Monday. Probably won't be good, but not bad enough to make Uncle Benny launch QE3 retroactively.
My guess is the market itself will force QE3 by having a substantial selloff and loss of confidence and the world flocking back into the USD. Who the hell knows anymore though. My patience of waiting is wearing thin, lol
Is it me or does anybody else want to go out and buy a Blackberry just because they feel bad for RIMM?
ReplyDeleteI don't even have the TV on, nor did I take in any of the FOMC dung. I was just a bit surprised to see that Aussie:Yen pair get a brief shot higher and was wondering why. Because that's an indication of "risk on". I mean, it's still down on the day but got an injection for some reason. Yet equities are obviously headed lower. Right now, it appears that that little shot higher in the Aussie:Yen might have been some sort of knee-jerk reaction to something. Whatever it was, it seems like it was intended to fake somebody out. Probably me. But I didn't fall for it. Uh uh... not me, lol.
ReplyDelete"My new short zone would be a break of 1395..."
ReplyDeleteAre you basing that on that little support trend line?
"My guess is the market itself will force QE3 by having a substantial
selloff and loss of confidence and the world flocking back into the USD."
Same here, but in order to instill the greatest amount of fear (that Bernanke needs in order to 'justify' more QE), any sell-off would have to be very fast and scary. Not necessarily all that deep because I think the power brokers would also be pretty damned nervous about the potential for it to get out of control.
Pfffffffttt
ReplyDelete(No offense bud... I just get a bit giddy sometimes quite often occasionally once in a while.)
As you can see, the CBOE is the only group offering options:
ReplyDeleteBeer and Tradable markets are two subjects I could talk about incessantly. Cheers!
ReplyDeleteand subject of a great song by Van Morrison !
ReplyDeleteIt's you, lol.
ReplyDeleteHow do you guys know so much stuff that I never even heard of? lol
ReplyDeleteThanks for that. I love Van but had not heard this album.
ReplyDeleteRave on you left us infinity
She's getting all primed up just perfectly for a gap lower tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteDoes anybody know what caused TLT to tank in the afternoon?
ReplyDeleteUUP busted out higher and so did TNX. Here's a pic of TNX showing that rates went skyward and almost assuredly for all the wrong reasons, therefore probably bearish:
ReplyDeletegreat sax.....
ReplyDeleteyep AR,looks you and I got this wave stuff sorted...can't see why folks make it seem so complicated lol
ReplyDeleteI think odds favor at least 32 more hours of risk off starting at 4pm ET today. Not a given, but currency bots seem to be acking that way....
ReplyDeleteSo far so good...
ReplyDeleteYup! The futures are headed in the right direction. The one that's giving me wood at the moment is the Aussie:Yen cross. It seems on the verge of breaking the neckline of an outstanding H&S pattern. If it breaks through the implications are definitely for a power dump by the equities. Keep your eye on it in the chart above which updates live when our markets are open.
ReplyDeleteKeep your eye on the Aussie:Yen tonight folks. It's on the verge of breaking the neckline of a superb H&S pattern. The implications for equities is definitely lower... probably "hard" down.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forexpros.com/currencies/aud-jpy-advanced-chart
What's rather interesting AR, is that the AUD/USD has broken below the last remaining threshold of support just as the AUD/JPY is nearing the H&S neckline. Crude oil remains below trendline support that dates back to the October low and it seems like nearly everyone is expecting 1440-1450 on the SPX before any real pullback, so I would not be surprised if the FX carry trades are hinting at what is in store for the rest of the markets in the very near future.
ReplyDeleteWell the correlation between the Aussie:Yen and equities is just stunning. The correlation between the Aussie:USD and equities is not nearly as good, but still not bad. I trust the Aussie:Yen totally because it's a measure of the appetite for risk. They Aussie:USD isn't so much.
ReplyDeleteBut now I can see what you're talking about. You bet, the Aussie:USD actually seems to be leading this time. In this case, the Aussie:Yen will provide the confirmation.
Know what? You're dead right. Everyone is expecting 1440+ and they ain't gonna get it.
yea I'm with you on that AR. not sure if many around here follow gasoline futures, but it's listed under RB in TOS, and it just hit a 2 year high today. Right around this area is when commodities had their initial crash last May as the EUR/USD dropped 1000 pips in a week. I'm wondering if Bernanke just pulled the rug today, because if gas continues on this trend or even remains in this area, bye bye economy.
ReplyDeleteAs you said AR, AUD/JPY has a near-perfect correlation to the equities markets, I've actually been wondering if this latest bout of AUD/USD weakness is being driven by the Chinese market weakness (SSEC/Shanghai Composite), which is down some 10% in the past few weeks, which is essentially coming on no "hard news" (pun intended with hard landing implications).
ReplyDeletePerhaps the AUD/USD is actually the canary in the coal-mine right now - but we won't know for some time. On the other hand, AUD/USD is inching nearer and nearer towards its October lows while the SPX is still near its top. What happens to AUD/USD if the SPX corrects 10-15% in short order?
Faber http://www.cnbc.com/id/46923999
ReplyDeleteAnyone remember the impenetrable Maginot trend line during P2? I sure do, and it makes me wonder a bit about this one -- about how long it can keep holding.
ReplyDeleteI just posted this on DE's site, for anybody who doesn't bother going there anymore:
ReplyDelete"the CRASH just might be "on" today. think how dumb the bernank will look when the market opens at 10,000 tomorrow and he launches a whole new round of QE. just sayin..."
I have my finger on the trigger today for the first time in a long time. Will buy Apple APR 580 puts, GOOG Apr 600 and NFLX Apr 90 puts and wade in on any break of 1395.
ReplyDeleteI'm in! 20% of cash at risk. will sell all at any break of 1404. Good luck all! Next 20% will go in under 1385
ReplyDelete"...for anybody who doesn't bother going there anymore:"
ReplyDeleteThere are hundreds of those people unfortunately bud. But the majority of them don't even know we've got this little pub going, so they're not here either, lol.
Well as we've been discussing here recently (I think it was Rob and Lapwolf and myself) the Bernank is going to need a crisis in order to justify further QE. Yesterday I suggested that he'd just ignited that crisis. On the other hand, I read an article yesterday (on one of the blogs I think) where the author was insisting that there just will not be any more QE at all. In either case, I think we're headed lower for quite some time now. The moving averages are definitely pointing in that direction now, EWT be damned. The risk off measures are now turning south fast too. Yeah, I think the Bernank is in trouble now. Either he launches QE at some point (after a crisis) or the equities markets tank real good and we end up with the unthinkable... Obama turns out to be the fall guy after all, and loses. On the day he was elected, I made that prediction... that Obama was being set up as the fall guy. I now think that theory isn't as wacky as it sounded at first.
Best of luck. I hope you can bear the torture of 'waiting' for a bounce. If you have a hard time with that, then just ease in one toe at a time. Wishing you the best.
ReplyDeleteI think there is QE, but perhaps not in the form we anticipate... if nothing else it might be a bolstering of funds to the IMF to help bail out the EU. I hear they need an extra trillion just to shore it up. Dya think we should pass the hat around? I mean our economy is doing soooooo well... ;-0
ReplyDeletehttp://s835.photobucket.com/albums/zz279/SoulJester/?action=view¤t=GLD-1.png
ReplyDeleteLol... I've got a hunch you more or less appreciate the fact that you can come in here any time you like and remain unmolested. Greg and DK have disappeared right off the internet though. And I know you liked chatting with those two. So did I. Wonder where they've gone.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I read that the FED was dipping its toes into the purchase of European bonds. Behind the scenes I'll bet it's a lot more than what they're telling us. The 'shadow banking system', whatever that is, is doing things none of us can even imagine from what I've read.
ReplyDeleteI read an argument yesterday that said there is absolutely no way any more QE is issued. If that's the case, then the markets are toast and I imagine so is Obama. Surely the FED isn't going to allow that? Would they?
"I mean our economy is doing soooooo well."
Kinda makes one wonder how in heck they're going to handle another war, this time with a country that wouldn't be a pushover by any stretch. Israel is just itching for a fight and if the US doesn't get involved, Israel is going to get hammered in my opinion.
They'll be back.
ReplyDeleteYeah I think so too. Man, that prick over there is something else is he not? Talking to himself all day long. I mean he's insane.
ReplyDeleteYeah. When he ridiculed those people for their TVIX trade was when I stopped being nice about it.
ReplyDeleteit all means more printing eventually,in some form,which is why I can't get too bearish on PM's
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure how many people missed his comment, but I imagine it was everybody except me, wherein he stated that he hadn't read the prospectus 'until now'. It wasn't one day later when he started pouncing on every single opportunity that presented itself to harass them with "only fools don't read the prospectus". I mean the guy's shallower than piss on a sidewalk.
ReplyDeleteFor a long time now I've been arguing the case why PMs could do very well even in a deflationary scenario, let alone in this theater where they're printing like there's no tomorrow. Either they're going to continue printing (whether it be hidden or otherwise) or else the bankers have lost. Deflation will literally crush their entire empire. So they'll be printing. Whether or not it'll be enough to stem the defaults that will probably result once Spain steps up to the podium remains to be seen. But even if the US dollar explodes higher, that just means that in terms of the Euro and other currencies, the US dollar and gold will look pretty darned enticing as a safe haven. That's what I think and I'm stickin' to it... for now. Until somebody changes my mind... somebody with power... like maybe the orcs.
ReplyDeleteI hope so.
ReplyDeleteI need to ask DK about EUR/AUD.
It's bumping up to it's long term trendline right now.
I don't want to post this because if I am wrong it will be painful (for SJ who has waited so so long for this), but I think we gonna fire off some bull shit on risk currencies within the next 24 hours. So, just consider that a non-post, lol.
ReplyDeleteThe ES triangle formation I've been posting is still valid, but it was pushed close to the breaking point and, I must say, the strength of this drop has me wondering.
ReplyDeleteThe 20 DMA has been a source of steady support for this rally and now ES is about 2pts below it. That's no surprise for the end of a 4th wave, but I can't see much reason for bullishness until the ES climbs above it. Perhaps yesterday's support is today's resistance. We shall see.
I posted this on another blog, but fwiw...and so you know, I really, really, do not like this conclusion and am searching right now for ways it is wrong....
ReplyDelete"I got potential risk on signals between now and tomorrow for a trigger. I dunno, my bias doesn't like it, but apart form the chart signals, we got Gann confluence at April 5, Nenner said cycle low at April 4 for the run into 1440s, and Spiral date has a cycle low in this period.I got the 15 minute GLD chart also in bottoming formation. I got GBP/USD ("cable") not confirming this move, I got short term harmonics firing on some of the risk currencies (they can fire a wave early), EURO and Austrailian etfs (FXA and FXE) outside their 4 hour bands, and so forth....So, man I hate to try to call a bottom after we have waited so long (and to get pummeled doing it) but I gots a bad feeling they got another ramp in it. I am holding June short position no matter what, but that is my analysis for today.If you wanted me to make a call, we ramp here, or do one more little dump tomorrow morning in SPY and then ramp is on into the 19th or so..."
I am watching this on SPY, to see if the bears can break it
ReplyDelete"CNNMoneyMarkets April 4, 2012: 11:19 AM ET NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- US stocks plunged Wednesday, as investors grew increasingly anxious about what the markets might look like without additional stimulus from the Federal Reserve."
ReplyDeleteI'll tell you what it would look like. It would look like the GDOW, that's what. P3 is underway and has been since April/May of last year.
Thanks Doctor. We are also on the trendline off the lows since December (but I think you wavers say in a 4 that can break some before a final fifth up on a grinding backtest). Pretty strong push down regression wise as well...
ReplyDeletebreathe...ommmmm
ReplyDeleteFrom the most basic perspective out there, the 12 day SMA has rolled lower for only the third time since the Dec. high. The other two occasions were just mild little pullbacks. But this one is the third, meaning 5 waves are complete (if you just look at that particular MA line). Once we see the very powerful uptrend line broken, I think that'll be the final confirmation we need. I hate to sound like I'm beating a dead horse here, but that Aussie:Yen pair just doesn't lie.
ReplyDeleteI understand exactly where you're coming from. I've gotta be the king of the crow eaters. My brother and I used to argue all the time which one of the two of us had the disease the worst. I find that if I just keep my mouth shut about my trades, and don't disclose them all to Wagner as he insists, I do very well. If I blurt about them... more often than not I don't do as well.
ReplyDeleteBut your comment was a little bit vague anyway... so you're ok. Not sure what your intention is, but let's just leave it at that until you're a bit more comfortable with the trade, lol.
I think you're right. In much the same way, the consensus seems to be that the recession started in 2007. I can provide ample evidence (and have done so in many articles) that the top was actually in year 2000.
ReplyDelete:-)
ReplyDeleteWhere I have the trend line positioned, the SPX just took a little peek below it, dipped its toes in. We'll see what happens from here.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update.
ReplyDeleteI've got us in a wave 4 bounce in the EUR and AUD but I'm not expecting it to last too long. I don't follow the Cable much but I think Geno's count is probably correct and it's bustin a move to the downside
Yen is still in the guessing zone.
Just added another chart. Be aware of the air pockets (based on previous volume or lack thereof). These areas usually get sliced through like a hot knife through buttah. But the support areas (blue box) are equally effective at preventing further downside. Just be aware of them, they're very good to know.
ReplyDeleteJust added another chart... a nice juicy moneymaker is in the works. Patience... let's see if IWM heads for this morning's gap. If so.... nail that piggy. I'm sure planning on it, depending of course on other indicators giving the right signal about when to pull that particular trigger. RSI, MACD, stochastics, etc.
ReplyDeleteI'm also just trying an experiment here with the placement of that last chart. It's now above the two mugs of brew. I have a purpose... bare (or is it "bear"?) with me :-)
ReplyDeleteJust a heads up that there is a new video out from Chris Vermuelen. Just click the "video button" over in the right hand sidebar (Technical Traders Inc.)
ReplyDeleteI have no position on it. I don't mind sharing my trades even if Wags type people jump on them. I get a lot of value out of sharing. If sharing is bothering me, means ego rather than the trade is involved, and then that means I am wrong regardless.
ReplyDeleteHey AR, I figured this pub could use a floor show once in awhile.
ReplyDeleteThe word of the day -
Saudade
The song title is loosly translated for simplicity sake as No More Blues, but that betrays the deeper meaning of the word which has no direct English translation.
Saudade is a Portuguese term akin to the English word nostalgia, but without the sentimentality or quite the same flavor of melancholy.
While it does convey longing for a past that can never return (as well as a future that will never happen or a present that is not turning out as one had hoped),
acceptance of this reality is somehow built into the word.
Saudade embodies a positive remembrance of a time or feeling that is no longer, while also deeply acknowledging the sadness of this truth.
Chega really translates as "enough"
"enough saudade", enough pining, enough of the old path
Let us move on to the next chapter.
Thank you for that.
ReplyDeleteWow! A Brazilian Dianna Krall. That's So Nice.
ReplyDeleteThanks.
He keeps trying the stupidest prod in the game, accusing people of having "no skin in the game" thinking that will goad them into proving otherwise. I don't know how much dumber a guy can get. Like his chances of evertricking me or besting me at anything<.u> are about ... well I guess there's a chance, lol.
ReplyDeleteLOL...nice reference.
ReplyDeleteThanks for proving the blog and for all the great submissions. If I don't see you tomorrow, have a great Easter!
ReplyDeleteUncle Peter again. Now he's just saying "Buckle up" over and over. The carriage doesn't have seat belts, and I wear ribbons and bows, not buckles. I'm beginning to suspect he's been into the Madeira I put away in the cellar.
ReplyDeleteWelcome back. What happened to your hair?
ReplyDelete:-)
You're welcome and thanks to you as well. Of course you'll see us tomorrow, yes?
ReplyDeleteAR, I'm digging that price by volume air gap chart...let's hope it can play out.
ReplyDeleteSome rising wedge updates along with some interesting SPX cycles info.
http://silversaxena.blogspot.com/2012/04/descent-of-rising-wedges.html
Nice work Rob. The DOW chart for example shows that the trend line we've all been watching for 4 freakin' months now is finally broken. And it seems that some traders now think that fact is kind of 'beside the point and of little consequence'. As if it suddenly doesn't matter because the market is headed for 1440 because that's the target that's "in vogue" these days, lol. I'm not saying that I know for sure either. But there sure as hell are a lot of cracks in the old dam as of tonight.
ReplyDeleteYeah, those air pockets are very good at identifying price zones where the candles will drop through them like the old anvil off the cliff trick. Conversely, the areas where there has been a whole lot of volume previously identifies the price at which a whole lot of people got into the market and a whole lot of 'em got out (in the past). It's important to know too, that the volume by price bars over there on the left side of the chart only cover the time frame "that is on the chart". IOW, if I doubled the time shown on the chart, the volume by price bars could change somewhat... but not usually by much.
Anything is certainly possible in this market as we've seen time and time again that the selloff gets delayed. But, the longer it gets delayed, the harder the rubber band wil snap. Today definitely had a different feel about it. What I like most is on July 27th, SPY had a breakaway gap that was essentially the point of no return. Only time will tell in the coming days whether today was that of a similar nature, it is possible given that the Dow trendline has finally been broken.
ReplyDelete