After chatting briefly with BrightFire, I thought I'd put together one space where friends could gather to chat about anything related to markets. Kind of a general meeting place where readers will more than likely run into a friend or two. It's a place where I put up no charts, set no stage and suggest no topic or agenda. More than likely the topic of discussion will almost always revolve around "what's happening in the markets right now". As it turns out, several friends have dropped in to this site with comments but they always seem to gravitate to whichever happens to be the latest article or post that I've published . The problem is that I don't publish something every single day... like Pretzel does for example. By the way, if you haven't yet been to Pretzel's I highly recommend that you check it out. The guy is outstanding on just so many levels... not to mention that in my opinion he's the single best EWT guy out there because he's not afraid to see the bullish possibilities when they are in fact staring us right in the face (at least as possibilities). His charting abilities, his writing talents, his friendliness and his professionalism... he has all of those attributes in spades. By professionalism, I'm really thinking of the way he runs that site (no trolls), but in reality the guy's a pro in every respect. So are my other blogging friends but Pretzel's site is probably the one that will look very familiar to most of you.
In any case, welcome to the pub. I'd actually prefer that you use this space for general discussion, unless you'd actually like to make a comment specifically directed at any particular article. In that case, by all means feel free to also comment at any article you like. Just remember that the pub is always open.
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| We've moved on to the next pub. Feel free to join us there. |
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| To see the full series, please visit Permabear Doomster's shiny new blog. He's putting up some great charts over there. |
Man, this place is empty. Can a guy get a beer, preferably from a hot waitress in a minimal outfit...;-)
ReplyDeleteAlways! Thanks for dropping in bud. I really would like to get this space functioning as I'd intended. There are two reasons. First, the pub is always open. People will eventually get used to the fact that they'll find friends here. And secondly, it will help the "articles" to not get quite so clogged up with comments that aren't related to that article, making it easier (faster and therefore more convenient) for the articles pages to open. Thanks again Lapwolf. If this ends up being a pub for just the two of us then so be it. I hope you're a beer guy, lol.
ReplyDeleteTop. (Shrugs, buys a round for the house.)
ReplyDeleteThe boys nod in appreciation. AR barfs on the floor and then prepares to go long the market until some time in 2014.
ReplyDeleteIn the final two hours today the volume in IWM was darned near as large as the entire volume of yesterday. I don't think this market is "ever" going to pull back.
ReplyDeleteIt's those AAPLtinis, dear. They're hard to keep down.
ReplyDeleteWhat's wrong with your hair? lol
ReplyDeleteIf this is what they did, you gotta hand it to the big leaguers for the way they play hardball: Leak the "stress test" results to charge up a market anticipating a QE resumes announcement. The HFTs were poised to front run a jump, and they did, and amplified it.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/fed-accelerate-stress-test-result-release-following-jp-morgan-disclosureThat's not social mood. And I ain't goin' long. IF there's a new bull market, great! My real estate goes up! But I'm not going long in the market. I'm staying short.
I'm ambidextrous... I'm thinking the impossible is happening right before our very eyes. It looks to me like the currencies are now getting poised to "all" crash even harder than ever, as one, inside that basket that has been thrown right off the cliff. I don't see why gold wasn't up $140 today. Oh wait... there would be interests who'd prefer that gold doesn't rise and reveal what's really happening with the global paper party.
ReplyDeleteAhh, don't get fancy about it, AR. Just put up an 'open thread' once in awhile.
ReplyDeleteThose are the words I was lookin' for... 'open thread', lol.
ReplyDeleteSuggestion for the Eleventh Edition:
ReplyDelete"The goal of a wave 2 in Elliott Wave theory is to destroy Elliott Wave theory."
HELLO A R AND OTHERS ;
ReplyDeleteWELL , AT LEAST WE CAN HAVE A GOOD LAUGH .
I READ THE COMMENTS , IT MAKE MY THOUGHT'S GO BACK TO THE TIMES OF LONG , LONG PAST , WHEN I WOULD STOP AND SEE THE GANG , BUY A ROUND AND HAVE SOME LAUGH'S
NOW HERE WAS A STOCK WE ALL SHOULD HAVE HAD BEFORE MARCH 1ST , ( SLMU ) .
10,000 SHARE'S OR 100,000 SHARES . ONE A NICE VACATION IN EUROPE THIS SUMMER , THE OTHER , HELP IN PAYING DOWN THE DEBT'S ONE MIGHT HAVE NEED TOO BE RID OF .
ALLES ITS QUITE ON THE WESTERN FRONT .
BEST OF LIFE TO ONE AND ALLES . D-KNOX.
YES, IT LOOKS LIKE SALAMON GROUP HAS HAD A PRETTY GOOD RUN OVER THE PAST 8 DAYS, RUNNING FROM A NICKEL PER SHARE TO A HIGH OF $1.10 TODAY. IT CLOSED AT 86 CENTAVOS, UP ABOUT 1600% SINCE 8 DAYS AGO. YES INDEED... IF EACH OF US WERE ONLY HOLDING ABOUT A MILLION SHARES EACH IN THAT STOCK, WE AS A GROUP WOULD BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE TODAY. BY THE WAY, SALAMON GROUP IS THE BEER SUPPLIER FOR THIS PUB. APPARENTLY THEY'VE NOTICED THAT PEOPLE ARE BEGINNING TO DROP IN HERE THESE DAYS.
ReplyDeleteSALAMON GROUP
Or perhaps at least to introduce the fact that "It should be clarified that EWT could, at some point, be distorted if influenced to a great enough degree by forces not of this earth. In that highly unlikely event, we will disclose the new rule in the Twelfth Edition."
ReplyDeleteUsually beer is a great call, but after today I need something stronger...:-(
ReplyDeleteHELLO LAPWOLF ;
ReplyDeleteMAY I SUGGEST , I W HARPER , 100 PROOF , BOTTLED IN BOND , FOR YOUR EVENING PLEASURE ?
ONE OF THE BEST THERE IS . HAVE FUN . D-KNOX .
LOL (WHICH ALSO MEANS "LAUGHING OUT LOUD"). MAKE THAT FOUR BOTTLES. ONE FOR LAPWOLF, ONE FOR D.KNOX AND TWO FOR ME.
ReplyDeleteNo beer, but white wine would be nice. Say, a Chardonnay from New Zealand ?
ReplyDelete--
Well AR' you're the first one to highlight anything I've done, I wish I could send ya a prize. For the moment, you'll just have to settle for more of my postings :)
Were it not for you noting my page on chartrambler, i'd probably have stopped. Its not the most encouraging thing at day'0 of a site to see 0 visits. Anyway, the super tanker IS picking up some speed. Maybe by end Month I'll have a micro-legion of readers.
More than anything I am trying to keep a contrary set of bullish charts - not least the one you highlighted, which now seems the 'best guess' that I can offer.
-
Spring is coming, so maybe western consumer land can get another 3-6 months of wilful delusion that everything is gonna be just fine.
--
Doom chatter - there remains some fierce 'omg, ides of March' out there. Everything from ramifications of the Greek default, to US Carriers being sunk. Yep, just about everything.
What is certain is that the sun will rise tomorrow, and the casino wheel will spin up. Considering what the rest of the planet endure, I live like a King.
yours...
in the decadent and deluded EU.
Thank god, I'm not alone. *Nothing* in the markets is making any sense to me. Not one bit of it.
ReplyDeleteJD and coke fer me. fity-fifty, over ice. That, or some good 100+ proof sippin' whisky.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar12/4charts-Fed3-12.html
ReplyDeleteCharts at Charles Hugh Smith. see: 'skew VIX divergence vs S&P.'
I don't always agree with everything he says, but he always gives me something to think about.
Nope! Depending on what the next pullback looks like, assuming there will be one sometime in the calendar year 2012, I won't hesitate to go long. Depending on what it looks like. Providing there is a pull back that is. At some point in the future there might be one. Maybe. But I'm not comfortable entering long at a point where the market has risen 6% in five days. So I'd have to wait for a pullback that takes a 3 wave form and retraces at least one S&P point. In other words, if the S&P were to correct from the current level of 1395.95 all the way to say... 1394, and if the shape of that massive correction is just right, then I could see myself mortgaging my house and my neighbor's house and going all in long so I can catch the ride to 1800 by April 10th.
ReplyDeleteAt one time I found JD to be pretty good if it were mixed 50/50 with my favorite mix... Johnny Walker.
ReplyDeleteAhaha ... so you do hang out with papa boule!
ReplyDeleteI'd like a bottle of beer also ... just got in to the pub, sorry I'm late.
ReplyDeleteAnd now gotta hit the hay.
I'll say this for today,
The currency markets didn't get propped up today like the market -- mostly the financials.
So, I kept my TVIX, but soon may toss her overboard.
Eill continue to scalp currency trades at support and resistance until this market starts going down. I'm not biased.
If this is an exhaustion in AAPL, and it turns out like silver/gold of last year, look out below!
ReplyDeletehttp://silversaxena.blogspot.com/2012/03/blowoff-top-wedge-overthrows.html
You gotta run so early? No way!
ReplyDeleteTake your beer with you, Papa will pay.
It was nice of you to drop into the pub today...
even though you were too tired to stay.
But hey!
What else can I say?
It was good while it lasted,
so come back tomorrow, ok?
I don't know why the music is still playin',
if you catch my drift, if you know what I'm sayin'.
But my nerves are in tact, they're not a-frayin'
and the last line doesn't rhyme worth a shit.
Frankly, due to intervention and HFTs, I just don't trust the market tickers as accurate metrics of social mood anymore. Except maybe the GDOW, and I'm not even sure about that.
ReplyDeleteHFTs are like new high frequency technology taking out an aircraft's instruments. We were flying at night, we were relying on the EW instruments to tell us where we are and where we're headed, but the rich passengers turned on all their newfangled HFT cell phones (and even changed the wiring to make the plane go the direction they wanted) and the instruments we were relying on are now scrambled and haywire and unreliable.
Which means we don't know where we are in the bigger degree picture. We could be anywhere. We could even be well along into P3. The bottom could fall out anytime. Or it could stay up for who knows how long.
I disclosed several times on the other site that I'm only 30% invested. I have 60% cash to go long with if I chose. I choose NOT. I'd rather stay trapped short with that 30% and protect the remaining 60% cash (which I believe will be much more valuable in the future, and cash probably the best medium-term investment of all) by keeping it on the sidelines than risk losing even more by going long -- which I see as the far riskier position no matter what the counts say these days.
Watch it AR, you don't want to insult a woman when you 're drunk on AAPLtinis! Especially if she's drunk on AAPLtinis too!
ReplyDeleteYour Jungle Bay wedding pics on slideshow AR? Beautiful!
ReplyDeleteYour new 52 week high chart is looking worse and worse. The divergence is now way wider than 2010.
ReplyDeleteHi AR I agree with PD's assessment, except I doubt we make it to the top trendline.
III was smaller than I, so, if V is smaller than III we won't get much higher
Concentrating on the social mood papa ?
ReplyDeleteI think we're already headed down, social mood-wise. Anecdotal evidence is pretty strong IMO. I'm expecting a critical mass moment in the markets, when they just give way.
ReplyDeleteMister Personality (oneofdaworst) is at it again over at Danno's Troll Lounge. I have been very good this week in not responding, but sometimes it's hard as he's such an asshole. He continues to take shots at Dan, his work, and EW in general. There's something about sticking knives in your host that just seems wrong, but maybe that's just me.
ReplyDeleteDoes Dan get paid by the post? by the page hit? What's the deal that makes it palatable to him?
I can't see jumping on the 1600 spx train either. Even though i think were heading higher.
ReplyDeleteFwiw i got some longs. I own YCS, a double short J Yen etf. A higher dollar in the short to medium term is a safer bet than the market in general imho.
ECRI's recession call sticks in my mind, though. They seem to think we're headed down after the middle of the year. I thought we'd start a bit earlier than that...but...
ReplyDeleteHi there DL. No, I can just enter keywords and whatever pics are tagged with those words will make up the slideshow. I change it fairly often so people don't get too bored with it. Right now the keywords are: islands, Caribbean and jungle. They come from Picasa Web Albums or I can also change that source. But Picasa seems pretty decent. I just added the word "wedding" to see what happens, lol.
ReplyDeleteHaha. I didn't know that was an insult. For that purpose I usually say something like "What happened to your face?" :-)
ReplyDeleteYeah, at first when I looked at that chart of PD's the first thing that popped off the page to me was that shoulder in 2008. I posted this chart on PD's site:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p64199008112&a=260866397
But I'm so disgusted with the global central bankers and disillusioned that I don't think anything matters much. Throw the rules out the window. Having said that though, what you're saying falls right in line with my initial thought about that right shoulder. What do you think of the possibility shown in my link above?
Congratulations!!!
ReplyDeleteI haven't even opened Danno's site for more than 30 seconds in days now. I just can't stand the atmosphere. I see Wagner still there, still spouting off about the A/D Line when he doesn't even know what it is. Well maybe he knows what it is but he quotes the number of advancers and calls that the A/D Line, which of course it isn't. He's getting a bit of an audience now, from those who've forgotten what a destructive whore he is. It just stinks in there these days. I gotta be honest, my personality, whether it be good or bad, just doesn't fit in well with those who are happy to roll around in shit all day long and associate with people like Wagner. To be honest, those who are associating with him right now... I hope they never show up here.
ReplyDeleteOneofdaworst should have been banned years ago. Period.
I have no idea if Danno gets paid at all. I doubt he's making much at all. As far as I know a blog owner only gets paid by the number of hits on the ads on his site. If a person tries to help him out by clicking on those ads a dozen times a day, he's in severe risk of losing not only that advertiser, but his Google account. Pretzel takes in quite a few donations via the "Donate" button, but other than that, I don't know what the income is over there either. There's a huge difference in those two sites by the way. Pretzel's is classy beyond description. Danno's is, well... you know. In any case, the income is certainly not enough for me to bother with setting up advertisers. So to answer your questions, I don't think there's anything that makes the foul stench in his house palatable to him. He's shown all I need to know that he simply has no taste at all. He's completely oblivious to it. I'm not exaggerating, every time I go to that site these days I'm reminded of the move Idiocracy.
I hate to slam the guy, but he's a complete idiot for not even addressing the issue of the trolls on his site. I mean, if he would at least just once a month come out and name a few of those assholes and tell them "knock it off", that site wouldn't have deteriorated to the scummy level it has. Not only that, but his site has caused me severe damage because he doesn't even have the decency to clean out his spam bin, and in doing so teach Disqus that my comments are not spam. He's providing a place where the trolls and "flaggers" can cause irreparable damage to other bloggers. He'll be lucky if he doesn't get sued some time in the next 12 months.
I took his name off my blog roll long ago because in all honesty I'm embarrassed to have this site affiliated with his. It seems the other blog owners have Danno's site in their blog roll because it's "in vogue" or something. I don't give a rat's ass about being "in vogue". In good conscience I simply can't sent people over to a site where all they're going to run into is Santa's crap that seems to be coming from the mouth of a 9 year old and insults from Wagner. All that garbage totally detract from the good comments that are posted there. Those are certainly diminishing in number as well because so many good posters have disappeared. They've been forgotten too.
I think the gold miners know what the hell is going on. They must have gotten the memo that the US dollar is about to bust higher I'd say:
ReplyDeleteHave you seen Tim Knight's analog? Kinda freaky if it happens again, would go along with the idea of a coming market crash...AAPL looks to be puting in a nasty intraday reversal here. Let's hope those comparisons to slv/gld hold up.
ReplyDeletehttp://slopeofhope.com/2012/03/a-fresh-look-at-an-old-analog.html
I think it's a good thought.
ReplyDeleteAssuming the 5th wave is less than the 3rd would mean it won't go past 1434, just under that shoulder.
That shoulder was also the peak of the little 2 month hope rally we got after JP Morgan took over Bear Stearns.
Would be some nice contextual symmetry to get repelled at the level again.
LOL... it kinda looks like Tim and I are looking at the same thing today. Go figure! :-)
ReplyDeleteI was just working out that if it weren't for AAPL's continuous outperformance, the entire NAS would be heading lower, not higher. For example, today if AAPL was changed by the same amount as the rest of the stocks in the NDX, the entire thing would currently be lower by .26 instead of up by .07. I'll have to make a calculator that will figure that out exactly.
For some reason I really like the word "repelled" today, lol.
ReplyDeleteSo what is the story with rates. Do we melt up, shoot straight up or do we hang around these levels for a while.
ReplyDeleteThis should be an easy one. All you have to do is figure out the Fed, equity markets and Europe.
Why is the important factor, but its usually the last thing that gets figured out by traders.
ReplyDeleteYesterday German 10 years were up 13bp, and UK 10s were up 17bp. So may be its relief
from Greece. Or may be people woke up an figured out debt is not an attractive investment
Dollar up seems to be the trade.
The strange thing to me is that treasuries price in rising dollars should be more attractive than treasuries priced in falling dollars. So there's probably even more to the equation. Like maybe selling treasuries to raise some cash in order to pay a coming debt? Who knows?
ReplyDeleteThanks, AR. Sometimes the question is more important than the answer.
ReplyDeleteEspecially when no one can figure out the answer !
For those of you who want to have a little fun today, drop in at Pebblewriter's place. There's some pretty good muppetisms going on over there.
ReplyDeleteI scanned it a couple of hours ago and saw santa/oneofdaworst call geno an "asswipe" because he took a profit on a portion of his AAPL calls. I wonder if he gets his ass kicked hourly, daily, or weekly. That guy needs some serious help...
ReplyDeleteLOL... Santa doesn't know a good thing when he sees it, that's for sure. I've known Geno for a lot longer than I've known either Santa or that other loser who have completely destroyed Danno's once great blog. I also know where else Geno hangs out and I know very well what his personality is like. Not exactly my kind of guy but Geno is 50 times as astute a trader as either Santa or Wagner. He also has probably 20 times as much money as both those idiots put together. And Santa calls him out? God what a freakin' loser that little pecker is.
ReplyDeleteGeno would be a great addition to any blog if he could stop acting like a "teacher". There are a lot of traders I know who are twice his age and have 30 years trading experience to his 3 or 4. And most of those guys don't even try to portray themselves as "teachers". But he's actually a pretty good guy, a fun loving guy. But for me personally, I'd just prefer that he get that ego back under control. We could even be buddies if he could manage to do that, lol. He's the same age as my son and my son's attitude is exactly the same as Geno's. Both are way, way too cocky and show no respect for those who've been around the block a time or two. Those who could teach them a hell of a lot if they'd only be willing to listen.
Picked this link up on Pretzel's site. Whaddaya think?
ReplyDeletehttp://wallstreetbear.com/board/view.php?topic=96415#350767
Nice to see Daneric post big picture counts tonight.
ReplyDeleteHeh. I haven'ty been back there since I said, "Thanks for all the fish."
ReplyDeleteHey, you got your correction of 1 point, you should be long and strong! :-)
ReplyDeleteI tend to agree about the noise, but my TA tells me that we're back to throwing darts for true accuracy. It was just good to see a well reasoned EW opinion which are as hard to find as an honest politician.
I'm short AMZN and LNKD, neither of which are behaving as I would like, but I'm hopeful that UVXY (currently underwater) will do right by me (come on VIX, bust above 20). The VIX extreme point rule was triggered today with the close back inside the lower BB, which usually (?) is good market sell indicator, unless that's now broken as well.
For now I'm just looking forward to tomorrows weekly upward unemployment adjustment to the previous week, what are the odds...;-)
The USD/JPY bullet train may take a breather here.
ReplyDeletehttp://silversaxena.blogspot.com/2012/03/usdjpy-bullet-train.html
LOL... when was that?
ReplyDeleteYes, I should be long and strong now. Should be! I see futures are off to the races again but of course, what else is new? In any case, yes I was glad to be on board for that crash of almost 1% and harvested a whopping $8, lol. It's time to go long now that I have the green light I was looking for.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I hear you about a reading a good, well-reasoned EW opinion. But I'm literally so busy that I just can't read 'em all. It almost gives me a headache to read as much as I do as it is. You understand, right? Sometimes I just have to close my eyes to shut out the noise. I know what you're thinking... you're thinking "well then what the hell are your ears for AR?", lol. They're for music.
Geez man, I sure do like that AMZN chart. You know what they say about symmetrical triangles. Here's one pattern I'll show you that I learned from a floor trader that happens way more often that people realize. I started watching for it after I'd learned it and sure as heck, it happens a lot:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=D&yr=1&mn=10&dy=0&id=p16738317302&a=261041344
But in the case of AMZN, we're already past the 3rd quartile of the triangle and getting dangerously close to the apex. I remember John Murphy pointing out (at least 25 years ago) that the closer the price action gets to the apex, the less reliable the entire triangle pattern is. I'd sure like to see that darned thing turn lower for you like right freakin' now. Best of success with those positions bud.
Yeah, that's a good observation. Personally, I don't think any pullback is going to amount to much though. We'll see.
ReplyDeleteLets be clear...
ReplyDeleteJapan: Q4 GDP -2.5%
EU: Q4 GDP -0.4%
The EU, and one of the main world economies is in recession...NOW.
The USA can not escape the affects of this. Sure, money printing could help, but the underlying fundamentals are scary.
--
Macro-economics is my speciality (I certainly not the worlds greatest trader, lol), and I can tell you, the EU has a real problem right now. Mass unemployment, not least in the southern Mediterreanean countries, and that has some deeply serious socio-economic long term implications.
Its not even a cyclical jobless problem, it is structural.
There are young people in their early 20s in Spain, who are not going to get a job for their ENTIRE 20s. It is NOT their fault, there is simply a massive structural problem in the Spanish economy, and no one wants to address it right in EU land.
If there is one country that is primed for revolution and societal implosion, its Spain. The Greeks (and Irish) have already made their choice, they are going for permanent indebted servitude.
I'm not sure the Spanish are going that route. They are a prime candidate for an uprising if ever there was one.
Yes, I've heard more about that possibility only recently. Until just recently I wasn't even aware of the internal history of Spain and that it is polarized. Somebody told me that the "ghost of Franco is alive and well". My daughter has a friend from Nicaragua whose family has been there for generations. In fact, his grandfather was instrumental in the history of that country due to his association with, and assistance to, Che Guevara. And this fellow told me that "his people", "his ancestors" supported Barcelona and not Madrid. I didn't understand what he was even getting at and still don't quite get it. But according to Wiki, Spain
ReplyDelete"At present, Spain is a constitutional monarchy, and comprises 17 autonomous communities (Andalucía, Aragón, Asturias, Islas Baleares, Islas Canarias, Cantabria, Castile and León, Castile–La Mancha, Cataluña, Extremadura, Galicia, La Rioja, Community of Madrid, Region of Murcia, País Vasco, Comunidad Valenciana, Navarra) and two autonomous cities (Ceuta and Melilla).
So there are 17 autonomous regions, none of which even addresses the Basque aspirations if I'm not mistaken. Throw the Basques into the mix and I'm certain you are right, Spain is ripe for a revolution. A huge, probably violent, one.
Thanks for the chart, I hadn't even noticed the triangle. I look at the mechanics of the chart and the nose-bleed PE of 137 to make my assessment and to me it looks like AMZN is over-valued, even @ $130/share (that would put the PE in the 90's).
ReplyDeleteLNKD has a PE over 800 and just looks like another buble stock ready to fall, at least into the 70's.
I got my weekly upward revision on unemployment, let's see where the market goes today (I write this as AAPL breaks 600, unbelieveable)...
Unbelievable is right, especially when we realize that the market cap of AAPL is now as big as all of Switzerland.
ReplyDeleteWell, I've had about enough of the Mike Wagners, the Lord Dipbads and their ilk.The rest of you folks?
ReplyDeleteHave a good life.
Thanks for all the fish!
2 months agoElliott Wave Update ~ 6 January 2012 [Update 5:05PM]
I agree w/everything you've said. The problem is figgering the timing for it to take effect in the US markets. That's what isn't making sense to me. imo, we should've already been paying the price.
ReplyDeleteLOL... sorry I didn't notice it back then Warren. I probably wasn't even there that day. I open that page for about 2 minutes maybe twice a week now and to be honest I just can't stand it. Wagner has even resorted to sending me private messages at Seeking Alpha now, if you can believe that. Declaring that he has no idea why I'm obsessing over him, lol. Unfreakingbelievable! And after attacking BoboM and myself, disparaging us as being Canadians so damned many times, he had the audacity to sign off with: "An American who likes Canadians". lol Seriously, I've never met such a demented sociopath in my entire life. The further people distance themselves from losers like that the healthier they are.
ReplyDeleteYou can always post here WB, whenever you have something you'd like to say :-)
That's it in a nutshell isn't it WB? If it weren't for the FED literally buying the entire world of equities and bonds, we'd have been in the shitter long ago. Are we supposed to thank them for that? They're the ones who got us into this mess in the first place. And it's all been by design, beginning in the 1740s with Mayer Amshel Bauer (who changed his name to Rothschild) reputedly because of the red shingle he hung outside his first shop of horrors. Perhaps it was shaped like a shield.
ReplyDeleteAs long as you remember that the answer is always "42."
ReplyDeleteHaven't seen so many completed bearish harmonic patterns all at the same
ReplyDeletetime in quite a while: crab at tip of butterfly on SPX, crab on XLF,
crab and May 2011 TL tag on RUT, crab at tip of butterfly on COMP, even a crab on AAPL. ALL on negative divergence.
http://pebblewriter.blogspot.com/2012/03/charts-im-watching-march-15-2012.html
"Are investors nuts these days?"
ReplyDelete-----------
In a word, yes...
??? I don't know what you're referring to but I'll put that number on a sticky on my wall for future reference, lol.
ReplyDeleteI'm a bit concerned about Uncle Peter. He just keeps saying "When that apple tree falls, the whole forest is coming down" over and over.
ReplyDeleteHey there partner, how's it going?
ReplyDeleteI don't think I'm following you. I kind of got the impression you're suggesting that the markets might fall from here or very near here. And as we all know by now, a falling equities market isn't permitted. So I'm a bit lost with what you're getting at ;-).
I was just thinking that there's such a push on the Russell to break above the recent highs that it's going to happen. Next target 870. It just seems that the pigs are that determined to convince the world that all is well. Having said that, if they can't get it pushed through 833 then the Russell might be finishing with a double top. I dunno man, I'm so disillusioned with the entire rigged game right now that I don't even want to be in the markets. Having said that, I've got both short and long positions on at the moment, more short than long.
Thanks for the heads up and thanks for staying in touch. BTW, that was quite a bit of fun with the muppets thing.
Darn it I had a feeling it would run into selling pressure there, but we need that thing to keep on trucking up so it can provide an underlying bid to the DX.
ReplyDeleteInteresting article about Bank of Greece printing Euros. Kind of like California printing US dollars...
ReplyDeletehttp://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/03/15/bank-of-greece-printing-its-own-euros-says-belgian-economist/
Simply stunning. The Euro should be collapsing right along with the Eurozone. Thanks for the link.
ReplyDeleteIt's from "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy". It is the Ultimate Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything. It took the supercomputer Deep Thought 7 1/2 million years compute and check the answer...42.
ReplyDeleteVery good spot for EWT to start to shine again. Most all of the rally wave structure appears to be formed now. EWT works best when the picture is almost complete in the rear view mirror. How could it be otherwise when you have no way of knowing for sure if it's an ABC or 123-of-5 until after the fact? (Or that it's a P2 top when the market hasn't yet reached it? You only know for sure long afterward.)
ReplyDeleteEWT counts work well when markets are dropping IMO because actual emotion is overruling intervention. You just have to watch out for overshooting corrections resulting from said intervention.
Bless your pea pickin heart.
ReplyDeleteGlad you enjoyed it, thanks for chiming in. Great to see so many of the old gang showing up here.
ReplyDeleteCheers
Bout time I got stuck into a few cold beers over here.
ReplyDeleteSeems like the creme de la creme has gathered over here -nice work AR.
Agree with Papa here.....but in addition we don't necessarily have to wait for the 'rear view mirror', because the closer we get to the completion of an EW pattern, the number of alternates get whittled down. This highlights one of the main drawbacks of EW- any innate subjective bias will encourage us to call the pattern over prematurely.
Now then...onto more concrete, but related stuff. Cross-market analysis can help us get an early warning. Many of us on Danno's site are watching AUDUSD & NZD as one of the risk on/off markers.
I believe we are at that point now where the number of viable counts is down to TWO bearish & ONE bullish, with an easily recognisable knock-out point for each.
AUDUSD
1. DROP BELOW 1.0423 : RULES out only viable bullish count left (Geno's wave (4) low & new high to come). Top count would be minor (iii) in progress. Alt would be LD for (1) down still in progress. (Anyone have another bullish count, I'd like to see it)
2. Knock-out for bearish counts=1.0858, but we should get plenty of clues before we get there.
So next few days critical & may give an early warning for those tracking SPX, as AUD has already been lagging the past few weeks. Fortunatley I have time to be glued to my screen the next week, so I'll keep updating here/Danno's & (gulp) Twatter
( @darkestkightau or soemthing like that). Now, gimme that beer dude!
A very good point about closer to the completion the options narrow down.
ReplyDeleteAnd I do like how the counts are starting to converge ... two counts even project the same next moves for awhile.
Hey I wanted you to be aware of Greenface's count he posted tonight on Danno's site of the EURUSD.
Maybe you've already seen it, but it's a nested 1-2, i-ii, (i)-(ii), [i],[ii] type of count right at resistance of 1.31.
So I''m heading over to short the Euro. The Aussie is gonna have to wait until she makes up her mind!
Enjoy that beer ... you deserve a couple.
Cheers!
And my wife calls me chicken little.
ReplyDeletetroll central AR affectionately refers to it as.
ReplyDeletehope my wife can't tell I'm down the pub too.
ReplyDeletere euro- i think a dip below 1.2972, then a (2)up to 132.5-33 is my bet before any major plunge.
go get some sleep
Glad to hear your alternate count, thanks
ReplyDelete... yes ... this is a late one ... g'night.
The better people will be the ones who show up here and you're a prime example of that my friend. I'm proud to be associated with you. There will be many people who won't show up here and some of them will think it's because I might not like them. If they have a reason to think that, then they're most likely correct, lol. But I get along really well with almost everybody. As long as they leave the arrogance and insults at the door, we'll get along just fine. Always good to see you Pebble.
ReplyDeleteAll the futures are going sideways tonight, many of them bumping up against a level for the 4th or 5th time. It gives the impression they want to burst higher. On the other hand, it also makes me wonder if they've just reached a plateau of "ridiculousness" that essentially represents the limit. I guess we'll know by time the European markets open up in an hour. The CAC, FTSE and DAX look just exhausted. We'll see.
ReplyDeleteHELLO A R ;
ReplyDeleteSO NICE TO SEE CIVILIZED FOLKS WHO GATHER AROUND THE BIG TABLE , WHERE ONE CAN LISTEN TO INFORMED , INTELLIGENT CONVERSATIONS , AND LEARN PERHAPS SOMETHING WE KNEW NOT BEFORE WE SAT DOWN .
I VERY SELDOM VIEW DANNO'S PLACE .
I WENT TO VISIT JUST A LITTLE WHILE AGO , I READ A COMMENT BY A PERSON BY THE NAME DAVID CHRISTOPH , WHO HAD PUT TOGETHER SOME NICE FACTS WITH REFERENCES . I SAW GREGINBALTIMORE, SOUL JESTER, DARKESTKNIGHT , I DID READ , AND LIKE THEIR COMMENTS .
THERE WHERE TWO THERE HOWEVER , WHO WERE I THINK WERE WAGNER , UNDER COVER . THESE WERE TWO NAMED JAMES AND KAY , WROTE THE SAME LONG , LONG , LONG WRITTEN , MOST OBSCENE , MOST OBNOXIOUS WORDED COMMENTS AND THE MOST BORING POSSIBLE , THAT HAS BEEN POSTED AT DANNO'S PLACE IN SOME TIME , I WOULD GUESS ?.
WHY DANNO , OR ANY ONE ELSE WOULD TOLERATE SUCH BEHAVIOR , IS BEYOND MY COMPREHENSION ?
WELL , THE S & P 500 HIT MY 1400 TARGET , NEXT IS 1450 ? IT MIGHT DO IT BEFORE TOO LONG , THEN MY HIGHEST TARGET , IS 1550'S TO 1570'S .
THE APPLE I PURCHASED , WAY BACK IN THE VERY LATE 1990 AND EARLY 1991 , HAS HIT THE 600 LEVEL TODAY . I WOULD LIKE TO SAY THAT I STILL OWN IT , BUT I DO NOT .
I HAVE SOLD OUT OF THIS STOCK I BOUGHT BACK THEN . I HAD BOUGHT 3700 SHARES THEN AND SOLD LATER . IF I WOULD HAVE KEEP IT UNTIL TODAY , THOSE SHARES WOULD HAVE BEEN 14049 SHARES AFTER ALL THE STOCKS SPLITS .
AT MY AGE AND THE FACT I HAVE NO ONE LEFT IN THIS WORLD , THAT I COULD PERHAPS GIVE THE OWNERSHIP OF WHAT I HAVE LEFT . HAS LEFT MYSELF TO THE POINT OF NOW GIVING TO 501 ( C ) ( 3 ) , NON PROFIT ORGANIZATIONS WHERE I CAN GIVE TO OTHERS WHO HAVE FAR , FAR LESS , THAN MYSELF OR MOST WHO LIVE IN THIS , MY FATHER LAND .
I AM EXISTING NOW , BY SELLING MOST OF WHAT I HAVE , I AM HAVE BEEN SELLING MY ART WORKS AND OTHER COLLECTIBLES FOR SOME TIME NOW . I HAVE ONLY ONE LAST PIECE OF ART WORK LEFT , AND IT'S GOING IN JULY , AT CHRISTIE'S NEW YORK .
I CAN SEE YOUNG CHILDREN AND BABIES , I WOULD NEVER BE ABLE TO MEET , THAT NEED HELP , RECEIVING IT THRU OTHERS WHO CARE AND GIVE OF THEMSELVES TO INSURE TO THESE LITTLE PEOPLE , BY REPAIRING THEIR SMALL HEARTS AND THEIR BODIES TO MAKE THEM WHOLE AND WELL AGAIN . I HAVE A SMALL BOY THAT I AM AIDING IN SOUTH AMERICA , WHO'S FATHER ONLY EARNS LESS THAN $300 A MONTH .
I WANT YOU TO KNOW AND SEE , THAT THERE IS MORE TO LIFE THAN MONEY AND MAKING MONEY . IT'S, WANT YOU DO WITH THAT MONEY THAT COUNTS . HERE TODAY , GONE TOMORROW . SO IS LIFE , HERE TODAY , GONE TOMORROW . .
I, AM THE LAST OF THOSE WHO USED TO GATHER AT A FEW NICE PLACES , WHERE WE COULD ENJOY EACH OTHERS COMPANY . ENJOY THE REAL MUSIC , NOT THIS TRASH OF TODAY . ENJOY THE GAMES , ON THE T.V. , MAKE A FEW BETS , HAVE A SOME GREAT LAUGHS AT OURSELVES AT OUR OWN EXPENSE.
I , HAD TO MEET AND MAKE A FEW NEW FRIENDS , WHO LIKE MYSELF , HAD LOST ALL THE OTHER OF THEIR FRIENDS . I HAVE , NOW LOST SOME OF THEM , AGE KEEPS MOVING ON.
BETTER TO ENJOY TODAY , THAN THINK OF TOMORROW . FOR TOMORROW , MAY NEVER COME .
ALL THE BEST TO ALL OF TODAY. D-KNOX.
AUD squiggly
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/5XxyQBncKY
I'm not sure what to make of it either DK, but the daily chart makes me think the Aussie wants to head higher yet again. I dunno man, but there seems to be such a huge appetite for risk out there once again that maybe the markets are never going to drop.
ReplyDeleteHere's some light reading for the weekend
ReplyDeleteComparing command & control economic stabilization polices with over-medicating a patient. You can have resilience or you can have equilibrium, but you can't have both.
http://www.macroresilience.com/2011/12/14/the-pathology-of-stabilisation-in-complex-adaptive-systems/
A high-investment, high-profit strategy for full employment – even with
the underpinning of an active fiscal policy and an aware Federal Reserve
system – leads to an increasingly unstable financial system, and an
increasingly unstable economic
performance. Within a short span of time,
the policy problem cycles among preventing a deep depression, getting a
stagnant economy moving again, reining in an inflation, and offsetting a
credit squeeze or crunch.
AR -
ReplyDeleteCan't you report Wagner to SeekingAlpha for the continuous abusive messages? I have to believe they have a policy against stocking and abuse.
Of course it would be more entertaining if you posted his messages for the world to see...:-)
-LW
Looks like the PPT got board and decided to jack the SPX...
ReplyDeleteMore on that later.
ReplyDeleteI just made my last visit to the other site. That pest over there has made it not worth it -- not even for the short visits I cut down to. I'm deleting the bookmark too so I don't accidentally click over there again.
ReplyDeleteI have to agree with that sentiment. After every visit I say "that's 2 minutes I'll never get back"...
ReplyDeleteCharting the NDX vs its equal weight counterpart shows just how overextended AAPL really is here.
ReplyDeletehttp://silversaxena.blogspot.com/2012/03/turn-ahead.html
Lol Geno is fine but gets a little up his own arse sometimes! I posted the "He's not the Messsiah" Life of Brian you-tube link under one of his posts at Danno's....not sure what he made of that !
ReplyDeleteSo this is where all the alcoholics hang out ! Do you have to wear a Canadian tuxedo to drink here ?
ReplyDeleteNice work!
ReplyDeletePersonally, I'd prefer that you didn't.
ReplyDeleteReally...I mean that in a nice way.
I like that. The Site That Shall Not Be Named.
ReplyDeleteHave a great weekend Alberta, and to all your followers!
ReplyDelete--
Yes he has made it unbearable. He's now even sending me private messages via Seeking Alpha's PM system if you can believe that, asking why I'm so obsessed with him. I mean. WTF is that asshole smoking anyway? He submits 20 comments to this blogsite, every single one of which goes directly to the garbage, does not get read unless I decide to see WTF he wants this time, and does not get responded to... and he asks why I'm obsessed with him? He is the most insecure human being I have ever come across, a person who has absolutely no name for himself but is just screaming inside for some recognition so badly that he attacks the highest profile people he can find. Believe it or not, I'm actually starting to feel sorry for him because he truly needs some psychiatric help. Nah... what am I talking about... that punk deserves to be behind bars.
ReplyDeleteIn any event, I never post anything of value over there anymore. I can't even stand it for two minutes in that place these days. With SJ and a couple of others getting sucked in and stroking Wagner's dick for him all day long, he's not going anywhere. He's stuck there... on the only website on the internet that will have him. Good luck with that Danno.
In fact, I've been so turned off of blogging that I don't post what I'm studying anywhere these days... not even here. Maybe I should make it a point to post one thing every day and let that be the start of a new pub every day. But then maybe I should also make this site visible to members only just so that asshole Wagner can't see what we're talking about. Then we could really open up. He's here every day but it's just driving him insane that he can't post here... ain't that right Mikey? That's why he's chasing me all over hell's half acre at Seeking Alpha. What a freakin' mental case.
One day one of my articles got 1400 hits from one website alone. I went there to see who in hell was so interested in a single article that I had written and found out that it was a private investment club (by invitation only). I couldn't even let them know I was knocking on the door. Maybe that's the way we should operate here. I dunno.
Anyway, it's good to hear your thoughts as always Papa. Have a great weekend.
Well when I saw him say that Wagner attacks people "mostly our of self defense", that did it for me. Talk about walking into a strange casino where you don't even know the operator, let alone the players, and start defending the worst card cheat in the room. That just doesn't wash with me. But he's still an ok guy. He reminds me of my cocky, overconfident son, so I kind of understand where he's coming from. I still like him a bit, lol.
ReplyDeleteLMAO... that's no Canadian tuxedo bro. That's Bubba from the state of Georgia.
ReplyDeleteThis is the Canadian tux... blue jeans with a denim top, usually a jacket. And a gun:
Thanks PD... and to you as well. If you run into Nigel Farage give him a high five for me.
ReplyDeleteI agree. Rob puts together some great charts, which is why I'm more than happy to have his name over there on the blog roll. Same with <a href ="<b>Permabear Doomster</b></a>. Both those guys are diamonds in the rough IMO.
ReplyDeleteActually, he isn't the main reason I decided not to go back. The reason is this, and it's very simple -- it's that he's being allowed to do what he does.
ReplyDeleteWhen it is within someone's power to stop abuse, yet they allow it, they are participating in it.
Your education isn't complete until you've read Douglas Adams' "Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy."
ReplyDeleteThe same has been said of other books and of other works of art, but this book is always at the top of the list.
If your "P3 hasn't even started yet theory" chart validates, it will certainly validate the complete and utter failures of EWT as a timing and medium-term forecasting tool.
ReplyDeleteThere are, I hate to admit (but do), a couple of things going for a count like that.
The good news (from the inverted bear perspective) is at least that a top will occur this summer. The bad news for my poor battered short-and-waiting trading account is that it'll be well into 2013 before it just gets even again.
Direct link to the chart of yours I'm talking about:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Mk1B8Xm48tk/T2OhRPRC35I/AAAAAAAAAYw/f6p61dw9aQo/s1600/sp+monthly+mar16.png
AC is a classic example of the guy who thinks he's got it all figured out and has no time for anybody whose approach isn't as "scientific" as his. ie he's all right brain and no left.There are a lot like that and they are usually a pain in the arse.Dan Darby was another.To me the whole point of a blog or a CIL is you get exposure to different approaches and learn new stuff.If you dont like something you either ignore it or point out the perceived shortcomings politely.Its not a pissing contest.
ReplyDeleteSame here. For me it's the fact that he's not only being allowed to drive away the better contributors (and no doubt many 'readers'), but is now being encouraged by those who have decided to welcome him because of his occasional somewhat useful comment, in spite of his incessant attacking and "yarn"ing.. "Jumping the shark" comes to mind.
ReplyDeleteI've heard of it a thousand times, but have never found out what it is all about. Apparently I'm not as educated as I thought, lol.
ReplyDeleteI did a Wiki search on it though and am a bit perplexed because there seem to be so many versions of it: a radio show, a stage play, a ' of 5 books, as well as further adaptations in the form of more radio shows and more books. Not to mention a Hollywood funded movie. Which one would be the easiest way for me to get a sense of what it's all about?
C'est la vie. Blogs come and go. The blogosphere is a very free market. And setting up one (or a thousand) is free and easy. Blog operators are free to run their blogs however they choose. And patrons are free to "vote with their feet."
ReplyDeleteAgreed. For the most part the few participants were pretty good people. But Dino once sniped at me by saying "You can't trade ratios", as a swipe at a study I had posted there. I guess he'd never heard of currency trades. In any case, there's no need for swipes like that, nor the incredible degree of arrogance shown by AC. Darned near every single time he posted a comment it was condescending to someone including yours truly. Who in hell does he think he is to "talk down" to anybody, let alone somebody who might be just as sharp or sharper than he is?
ReplyDeleteTo be honest, I found the CIL to be as much a pissing contest as anything else and AC's ridiculous and totally unwarranted and uncalled for "grading of my essay" was all I could handle. I don't mind people arguing my conclusions. In fact, that's what I'm looking for in many cases. But to come at me from the angle "I'm the teacher and you're the student"... uh uh... I'm sorry dude, but I've done a hell of a lot more study you think I have. I doubt AC or anybody else has been reading and studying TA since he was 11 years of age. Don't talk down to me bro, lol.
The most upsetting part for me is that I liked Mike a great deal. He knew where I stood on arrogance though and he was aware that certain individuals were too arrogant for my liking. Not his fault, that's for sure.
"The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" Book by Douglas Adams. The first book, and a classic.
ReplyDelete...and, if we could also get Pam to drop by here, now and then...
ReplyDeleteDreamers gotta dream, I reckon...
OMG, I didn't know about that 'red line' issue (I'm still new here, remember)
ReplyDeleteLast evening I had been pondering my increasingly infamous 'P3 not even started yet' chart, and its something which I've been dwelling on ALL day today...was that PRECISE level.
..and just now, I read your posting above! Its always a real cool thing to see someone else post similar targets etc.
-
I will do a proper post on it tomorrow, but my unofficial note this evening on it, is that would be my high point target for this YEAR...within the next 2-6 weeks. Yeah, its one of those crazy bold predictions that can so easily get blown out within days of making it.
A special extra note right now, a high - no later than end April would validate my monthly world indexes chart - see last weekend.
As a permabear, it has been concern that if market keeps trundling up for more than 2-3 months, we'll be breaking key levels on ALL world indexes - in which case, we'd be looking at a massively bullish multi-year outlook.
Instead, a complete FAIL at resistance levels on all world indexes would be the most amazingly bearish outlooks ever.
more later... time to get back to the movie
Man, I worked up a thirst making this chart.
ReplyDeleteAUDJPY.
Someone asking about it recently, thought I'd update it.
We are within a bees dick of the KO for this count, so mega risk:reward possibility.
DK
http://screencast.com/t/Unxl2FkQ
Ok, tanks.
ReplyDeleteThanks DK. Here's my daily chart on the Aussie:Yen and it has no wave counts on it. Instead, I'm focusing on the momentum indicators and they're saying that thing is just about cooked. In fact it should be rolling lower already:
ReplyDeleteIt's from my post that's dedicated to currencies. You never have shown up there but several others have. If you'd like to click this link it'll take you there. Somewhere near the top of that post I have a section in red that lists all the currency charts on that entire post so you can find the one you want fairly quickly. None of 'em have wave counts. For me personally, wave counts are a distraction. Don't get me wrong, I love other peoples' wave counts in that they suggest a possible turning point or might even suggest more upside or whatever. But they're a distraction (for me at least) because no sooner do they give a suggestion about what price might do, then two days later it'll do the complete opposite. So most of my charts have no wave counts on them for that reason. I realize that for a lot of EW fans, to see a chart without a wave count on it seem useless and naked. But not for me they aren't. So check 'em out of you like.
Hey dude.
ReplyDeleteAh, your currency page....awesome!.
Interested in your opinion re AUDJPY& it's continued place as risk marker. As I mentioned on my chart....consider this;
1. I see USDJPY at multidecade low - headed for 125+ (that's WEAKER yen, not your upside-down JPY/USD chart)
chart here
http://screencast.com/t/rxGNCo8J
2. AUDUSD headed south..
SO- does AUDJPY risk on/off correlation hold up, or is it about to break this correlation?
would be interested in your thoughts.
DK
I was fiddling around with the chart posted below when I noticed the permabear chart AR posted above. I present a similar version with my own EWT perspective.
ReplyDeleteI believe there's a decent argument to be made that major US stock indices are forming an ending diagonal truncated 5th wave off the March '09 low. Call it a Monkey Fish Frog diagonal if you will. The internal wave structure of each leg isn't particularly clear and I wouldn't characterize the entire move as either contracting or expanding. But there's a clear 5 wave move. Each upward move has been smaller and the 4th wave overlaps the 1st wave. If I saw this same fractal on an hourly chart, I'd definitely think "diagonal." Though the trend has obviously been "up" the trajectory of the increase has been flattening out and it's just as obvious that the whole thing has followed an elliptical path that's currently quite near its apex. Of course past performance is no guarantee of future performance, but if we didn't put some value on that relationship there'd be no such thing as technical analysis.
There's a clear story of a weakening advance. The first leg up was a monster and its retrace was shallow. The next up leg (wave 3) was about 2/3 as big and the retrace was much more pronounced. No we're in a 3rd up move, and it looks to be smaller than its predecessor (though I'd feel better about it if it were a bit less steep -- but I'll attribute that to the incredible financial actions of the ECB).
Of course none of this analysis is particularly helpful to my short-term trading. The advance could end next week or the current structure could stretch out through the rest of the year -- though I suspect the ultimate result would more likely be something in the middle.
One other possibility is that, instead of the move from March '09 being an ED wave 5, it's an LD first wave of a 5th wave. Maybe that's more probable. I dunno. It's too "big picture" for my limited mind But either way, we're in for a big drop when this thing ends. Let's say SPX tops at 1415. A .786 retrace would be to 842. I believe I could figure out a way to make money on that.
Given the weakening of this multi-year advance (see my post above) I suspect a substantial period of consolidation would be required before a strong breakout to the upside.
ReplyDeleteHe's repeatedly criticized that blog's contributors of being paper traders but I can't imagine how, given the volume of posts he writes here, there and who knows where else, he could possibly be actively trading. When I have an intense trading day, I barely have time to view a blog, let alone write an entry.
ReplyDeleteAunt Pittypat, maybe you should consider possible sexual subtext in Uncle Peter's messages.
ReplyDeleteGood morning doc. Thanks for contributing that perspective. Your argument is about as valid as they get IMO. Who knows if that entire structure is an ending diagonal or a LD? But from the perspective of our day to day trading activities it doesn't really matter does it. At the end of the day I don't see how anybody can be expecting the current leg higher to run much further without a serious correction (at least) before a new bull market could resume. It can't go straight up for the next 5 years without a correction. If it did, we would be looking at food and fuel prices so high that half the population of the planet would would be in revolution mode, gunning for banksters... starving to death while on Washington and New York because they can't afford fuel for their cars.
ReplyDeleteI keep thinking about what investors and analysts will be saying once the correction is well underway. They'll be saying something like "Well everybody knew this was coming, I mean no market goes up forever". IOW, once it begins everybody will become an expert and act as if it was perfectly obvious that a pullback to perhaps 1100-1200 was perfectly logical. And they'd be right. It's amazing how a run-up like this can screw with peoples' minds.
Regarding PD's chart above. Greenface and I were talking about that and both of us came to the conclusion (each for a different reason) that the shoulder of 2008 is most likely the limit for this move. Then PD himself chimed in and without yet having seen this chart that Greener and I were talking about... had refined his study and had come to the very same conclusion. So between the 3 of us, it appears that we're all in agreement that 1440.24 won't be breached.
The bottom line is that we're probably going to see a correction get underway fairly soon and that by all rights it should be a doozie of a pullback at the very minimum. But having said that, I guess I have to throw a wrench into all that argument by proposing that this pattern could also play out. That chart is from the piece called "But What If?". I've mentioned it more than once in conversation with some of the other people below but I don't see the feedback I'm looking for. On second thought, that pattern (particularly the forecast represented in the blue waves 4 and 5) wouldn't be in conflict with the overall discussion would it?
Oh dear!
ReplyDelete*Faints* *CLUNK!*
If I may, lolcat has an additional thought on that ellipse.
ReplyDeletehttp://i.imgur.com/K9ie0.jpg
Great post!
ReplyDeleteBlow-off top gettin' near...finally?
This page is getting a little long in the tooth now so let's move the conversation to the new pub. All the key charts have been transferred over there and we can easily pick up where we left off here. There are easy links between the two. Click this magic button and see what happens.
ReplyDeleteLOL... Papa adds his own flavor.
ReplyDeleteGotta respect the possibility.
ReplyDeleteThat kitty is unusually insightful. Nice fur too.
ReplyDeleteI've certainly been as guilty as anyone of getting wrapped up in elaborate EW counts and losing sight of the forest for the trees, but common sense says this is a weakening structure. The up moves get smaller and the retraces get bigger. 5 waves -- I'm told that's the market's natural rhythm.
ReplyDeleteFor sure. It's a weakening structure. To be honest I think the pullback is going to be very interesting and probably very helpful in determining where we go over the next 3 years.
ReplyDeleteIsn't he though? And he's running a special right now -- a 3-month subscription to his newsletter for one belly rub and two ear scratches. Just click the Paypal button.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, it this busts up and out of the elliptical pattern, I'm in the bull camp.
ReplyDeleteMe too. As I mentioned in my post at the new pub: "One caveat here... in the event that right shoulder area of 2008,
ReplyDeletesomewhere very near 1440.24 is taken out with gusto, then all cards are
off the table and we're probably looking at something much more bullish
than most of us thought possible. The bankers will have exerted enough
influence to have messed up every EW count I know of and we'd probably
be looking at an inflationary scenario the likes of which the world has
never seen."
Seems about right to me.
ReplyDeleteThat chart shows an awesome potential move for the USDJPY.
ReplyDeleteGuess I shouldn't worry about missing the first part!
He's made about half the posts on Sunday's thread ... so yes, it's becoming a waste of time to read his repetitive posts. I have think that's why he's probably paid to post there ... to irritate everyone into leaving.
ReplyDeleteHow ironic you should say that today. Just today it crossed my mind that since he's so irrational, so incredibly irritating, such a 'driver of wedges between friends", such a liar, such a schemer that it crossed my mind that he's actually a plant. I mean, no normal person could possibly behave like he does on a daily basis. I'm seriously now thinking he was sent to sabotage that site. If so, he's a pro because it's so far gone now that I don't think it could possibly ever recover. As bad as I feel for Danno in that whole sordid affair (as far as I know he and I are still friends... or at least on good terms and respectful of eachother's abilities), I'm afraid he invited it by allowing such disrespect to prevail right from day one. Haaaaaaaaaater got away with murder over there and Danno hasn't done a damned thing about any of the trolls since the the day that asshole even started attacking myself and constantly bringing up the fact that I'm a Canadian. LaCour still isn't out of the picture either as far as I'm concerned. He's mixed up in this somehow because the MO's are just too identical to be coincidence.
ReplyDelete