Monday, April 15, 2013

Hindenburg Omen Issues First Signal Since Aug. 2010

UPDATED APRIL 18, 2013Well, that was another fairly close call today.  According to the official data source, the WSJ, there were 68 new highs and 59 new lows issued today (85 of each are required).  And just as a check on WSJ's often-faulty work, StockCharts shows 83 new highs and 58 new lows.  So with the added comfort from StockCharts that the WSJ isn't too much out of line today we can safely say that we just had another "near miss", the third in as many days since the 'initial' signal on Monday.  And this one was closer than those that occurred on Tuesday and Wed.

A very important factor is that if the market drops even one point tomorrow the HO is going to be switched off because of the rule regarding the 50 day MA.  And of course it's no surprise that the 50 day moving average of 'any' market will roll over at a market top.  So the HO actually has a very small window of opportunity within which to issues signals.  It's entirely possible we will 'never' see a second and confirming signal which is why I personally have never depended upon seeing it.  We know darned well that the NYSE is very polarized and shakey.  For me... that's all I need enough to know.

UPDATED APRIL 17, 2013:  Just for the record... as you know the HO issued its "initial" signal on Monday.  Yesterday and today it came relatively close but did not fire the second round.  The missing piece of the puzzle on both days was that there weren't quite enough new 52 week highs to trigger.  85 were required.  According to the WSJ there were 60.  According to StockCharts there were 80.  In either case... not quite enough.  In both cases... too close for comfort.

=================  Original Article Below  ================

Today the Hindenburg Omen has issued a signal, it's first since August of 2010.  But's with a cursed asterisk courtesy of the WSJ.  I'm going out on a limb (but not by much) by making this declaration because according to the official source of the data, the WSJ, only 84 new 52 week lows were attained today while 87 were required.  The minimum required number of 87 new highs was attained.  We've seen enough of this my friends.  At least a half dozen times in recent years we have seen the data from the WSJ get "pinned" just shy of requirements for the HO to go off.  Each time that happened a sharp market sell-off ensued in the days and weeks following.  There comes a time when we have to recognize that just as in the game of "hand grenades", sometimes close is close enough. 

I also think we're at that point when a person just has to step up to the plate and say "Ok, enough of this bad habit of reporting shit false data".  Or call it "incomplete market data" or whatever you want.  According to StockCharts there were 132 new lows registered today and that's such a giant disparity that we can be pretty damned confident that the WSJ is being disingenuous today.  It's not the first time either.  Just telling it like it is folks.
Previous Erroneous Calls Understandable

Contrary to claims by some very well known and respected analysts, people I myself respect a great deal including Dr. Robert McHugh, Sentimentrader and Stockcharts' contributing author, Mr. Arthur Hill (along with a few others), the Hindenburg Omen has not issued any signals in recent weeks or months... not once since August of 2010.  It did not issue any signals in December as claimed back then.  The signal issued today is official, because believe it or not it's important to use the correct rules for crying out loud.  Why so many analysts insist on using the old rules and still screw up half the time even with those ones is something I can't quite understand.  That practice is a great example of the truth in the old saying "A little knowledge is a dangerous thing". Having said that, I do want to make it clear that I have a ton of respect for the names above even though they are either using old rules or, as in the case of Mr. Hill, they are simply misinterpreting one very strict rule... and that being the rule regarding the 50 day moving average on the NYSE.  In fact, to his credit, Arthur Hill upon learning that he'd 'misread' the rule regarding the 50 day moving average, corrected his article so that it stated the Hindenburg Omen "almost" went off.  It became clear at that point that Mr. Hill had simply misread or misinterpreted that particular rule and made the necessary adjustment.  That's what good analysts do.

I also want to make it very clear, I consider the sources mentioned above to be very credible... it's just that with the recent declarations of a UFHO sighting they've just made an innocent error.  A couple of years ago when the inventor of the HO, Mr. Jim Meikka, made a few fairly important and very reasonable rule changes in order to account for the increased numbers of ETFs and bond funds, those changes were not broadcast widely.  So it's understandable that some analysts are unaware of them.  I only discovered them myself by keeping close tabs on what Tom McClellan has to say each week (more on that below).

The 'Official' Rules

I am using all the rules as dictated by Mr. Meikka, including the changes referred to in the above paragraph.  And of course, in order to maintain consistency we still use data obtained from the one and only official source, the WSJ.  Due to the fact that there were so many erroneous claims of an HO signal recently, I found it necessary to confirm that it wasn't 'me' who was behind the 8-ball in that perhaps there had been a change that I was unaware of.  I couldn't imagine why any further recent changes would have been necessary and I highly doubted Mr. Meikka had initiated any.  Nonetheless, in order to make certain, I had a recent telephone conversation with Tom McClellan of McClellan Financial Publications, in which Mr. McClellan was kind enough to reaffirm that my understanding of the all the rules regarding the Hindenburg Omen are correct.  And Mr. McClellan would know... it's his father's own indicator (NYMO) that forms a large component of the HO's inner workings.  As well, Tom McClellan is a friend of Jim Meikka and as such he would be aware of any recent changes in the rules.  There have been none.  I might add that not only was Tom McClellan very helpful, he's flat out a fun guy to talk with.  Now that that topic is finally put to bed, we continue to the meat of the matter for today.

- 50 day moving average for the NYSE must be rising 
- number of new 52 week lows must be at least 2.8% of issues that traded and changed in value 
- new 52 week highs must also be at least 2.8% of issues that traded and changed in value 
- that data must be obtained from the WSJ  ✔ *
- new highs cannot be more than double the number of new lows 
- McClellan Oscillator (NYMO) must be negative on the day 
- [and my own personal unofficial requirement; that when the HO issues any signal 90% of investors must laugh it off as they always do, as a reflection of their utter complacency.  This requirement is always fulfilled because during times of market exhilaration, at a time when the market internals are in tatters, investors pay no attention to signals that really, really matter.  The Hindenburg Omen is one such signal. 

Today's Signal Might be Ignored

Pertaining to that last rule, what's even more likely is that with so many false alarms having been issued by those who seem to have the extreme craving to "be the first to report it", the main stream media probably won't even mention today's HO signal.  That's a sad situation because in its own right an HO signal at this ungodly stage of an incredible madness induced market rally could almost be seen as an historic event.  We'll see!  As well, the general sentiment is so diabolically complacent thanks to the madness of bankers and the resulting euphoria that madness creates among the uninformed masses, that any mention of any type of signal that indicates the market just might be in the earliest stages of a crash simply will not be tolerated.  Ignorance is bliss as they say.

So that's it... all requirements for a signal were met only moments ago.  So the HO went off today and I imagine so will half the bears out there in Stockworld.  But before they do, it's very important to have a clear understanding about what this all means....


If you haven't done so, I highly recommend you read So The HO Issues A Signal. What Happens Next?  In fact I've been recommending for a year and a half now that investors should read that piece before the HO issues a signal just so that you know ahead of time exactly what to expect.  If you haven't read it yet no worries, just read it now so you know what the odds are of various outcomes in the weeks ahead.  In a nutshell, despite the ominous name, an HO signal does not necessarily mean "Ok ladies and gentlemen, I advise that you now begin to panic."  Nor does it necessarily imply that a life changing, market crashing, 'death to many businesses' event is about to happen, but just that the odds are only 27% that such an event is about to occur.  But let's not fool ourselves, with a global credit crisis 100 times worse than any ever before seen in the history of the solar system we should consider a signal from the HO as most likely being fairly serious this time around.  As in... "the odds of an iron meteor the size of New Jersey slamming into our planet are only 27%".  Only 27 percent!  Things could be worse!

Some Decline is Very Likely

But in the name of calm, we also need to recognize that if past history of HO signals (and what occurred after them) is an accurate guide for what would happen this time around, the greater odds suggest a somewhat milder correction than what most people might envision.  Keep in mind that the HO is not designed to tell us what size that correction might be.  All it has done is to alert us to the fact that a relatively rare extreme condition has been reached in the markets that reveals an unusually high degree of polarity.  It reveals that there are relatively few healthy horses pulling the stock markets uphill these days.  And while they struggle to keep the market afloat, there are now plenty of horses pulling the old stock wagon downhill at the same time, and even as the 50 day moving average of the NYSE is heading higher.

Virtually No Upside Potential Exists

Bottom line?  The odds of  further upside are almost non-existent when so many of the animals in the stock yard are pulling in opposite directions. Animals like that superstud of a corporation Amazon, with a P/E ratio of 28000:1, recapturing all of it's 10% slaughter after the earnings report about a year ago and then tacking on another 4% the next day... as compared to that AAPL with a measly $100 billion in the bank, falling more than 39% since its Sept. high.  See what I'm talking about?  That's the kind of polarity the HO detects market-wide. The odds are 93% that something is going to break at least a little bit.  There is a 54% chance that it will be a decline of at least 8-10% (the entire data list is posted below).

The Signal is Only Halfway Complete

Keep in mind today's signal is only the first of two required, one which Mr. Meikka calls the "initial signal".  However, it's critically important to understand that a market correction doesn't need that second signal in order to decline.  Today's action is clear enough evidence of that truth.  However, in order for the HO alarm to go off "officially", a second signal must be issued within 36 days.  That second signal usually occurs within a much shorter period than that however.  It could happen tomorrow,  next week or the week after that.  Nonetheless, although the signal is not considered "official" until that second occurrence, let's be realistic.  We as investors have now been given ample evidence of the high degree of stress within the market.  And by "high degree", the fact that the HO issues signals fairly rarely is evidence enough that any HO signal is an outlier.  This is one more reason why it's so darned important to weed out the false claims of an HO event.  The legitimate ones just don't happen that often.  So even though today's signal is just the first, I sure as heck would not remain long or consider buying the dip at this point regardless of whether or not we see a second signal.  In fact it would be idiotic to wait for a second signal before we finally recognize and accept what is actually happening inside the guts of market.

From the piece I mentioned above about "what happens next", here's a brief summary showing the odds of what will happen based on the entire history behind the HO since 1985:  These are not guesses.  These are hard facts based what happened previously based on two and a half decades of pure Hindenburg Omen history:

Major Crash - 27% probability
Selling panic of at least 10-15% - 39% probability
Sharp decline of at least 8-10% - 54% probability
Meaningful decline of at least 5-8% - 77% probability
Mild decline of at least 2-5% - 92% probability
The HO signal is an outright miss - 7.7% probability (one out of 13 times)

Wishing all of you the best.  Stay safe.





  1. Thanks for the heads-up Alberta.

  2. You're welcome guys. I gotta run now so I won't be able to be around to chat about it until midnight ET. But damn that WST pisses me off. They've done that at least a half dozen times in the past two years. Maybe more. Including during the week of the flash crash... TWICE.

  3. I think the words 'Wall Street' in WSJ give it away, in my view.

    Good to see a new HO update.

    ohh the humanity.. are we actually going to fall more than 5% across multiple months, lol ?

  4. Thanks AR, all the pieces are surely in place. Appreciate the timely update. Also like the triple top trendline connecting the three all-time-highs which was met last Thursday

  5. Thanks the name implies you rock I am personally not settling for anything less than a close under 1300 (to start) and have all the time in the world. When we get near the double top the only thing I will not throw at it is the kitchen sink. Everything else must PB said...Short everything!

  6. Thanks for the kind words my friend. What was so damned funny about what Papa Boule said was the actual words "Short all the things." I still laugh at that.

  7. Hi Mars, nice to see you again. Thanks for dropping in. This place has been ungodly quiet ever since Fam opened her blog and to be honest that suits me just fine. Friends drop in here from time to time and I just love that. But I barely have time to reply to the few comments that do land here, let alone run a full time chat room like Fam does. She has the time for that and it helps keep her place lively. But this place can go quiet and that frees me up to do more TA work and trading and reading and writing and pooping and all the other stuff I love to do. The doors are always open here and the beer is always fresh and cold. So swing by any time you like

  8. TY CR. I'm glad that aside from the friendly kidding you 'do' understand what this kind of polarity means. Naturally Asswipe took a swipe at my comment over at the hovel which proves yet again that no matter how hard he tries, he'll never match the cut of your jib.

    As I recall, you said you prefer a fine wine over beer, right? Here see if this one suits your fancy.

  9. Looks like ZH picked up on this just about 17 minutes after your post. No credits given . . . as though they were on top of it and an alarm went off (which could be the case of course). It also looks like they're using the old rules, or different rules?

    Some brainstorming for you:

    Regarding the rules, rule #4 is really a data source issue. Couldn't we have a WSJ Hindy, and a Yahoo Hindy, with the difference being the data source? As long as it is made clear that the WSJ is the ORIGINAL, and the Yahoo a "complement" of sorts? It would also serve as confirmation of sorts?

    Also: since we have a McClellan on the NASDAQ as well, wouldn't it be logical to develop the same thing for the Nazzy? I like what ZH has to say about rule #2 (the 2.2% rule): "This is not a rule but more like a checksum." It seems perfectly moldable to the NASDAQ, don't you think?

  10. You should be a part of a contest for one of
    the greatest blogs on the web. I most certainly will recommend
    this web site!

    Here is my page - Raspberry Ketone Diet

  11. Yeah I noticed ZH coming out like the heroes they like to portray themselves to be. The tip-off was the fact that in the past they had reported false signals at least 3 or 4 times. And each time I reported why the signal was false. Honestly dude, I've been fighting with all these false reports for 4 years now, trying to explain to people that you can't just listen to Joe Blow who says the HO issued a signal. People gotta get their facts straight. But anyway... the tip off yesterday was when ZH reported that this is the first signal since August 2010. Guess where they got that accurate fact from? Doesn't matter, at least they're starting to report it accurately and their readership is gigantic. That's what I'm trying to accomplish anyway, so it's all good.

    About rule #4 - Yes indeed, it's the rule that addresses the data source issue. And so far, for the entire life of the HO, the WSJ has been the source that Jim Meikka used. So he says to continue to use that source in order to maintain continuity. And to me that makes perfect sense as well. But about 3 years ago I used to use the data from StockCharts and it was 'slightly' different on most days, but not by much. However, on days when we got real close to seeing an HO signal StockCharts data said the HO went off but the WSJ data said it didn't. So I got in touch with a guy from StockCharts and asked him 2 questions: First, "why do the two data sources differ at times", and second, "Who's data is more accurate". He knew I was asking the questions out of determination to get the facts straight regarding the HO. His response was that since I was using the data for reporting on the HO, I should use the WSJ data. I imagine the reason for that was twofold. I think StockCharts didn't want to get involved in a pissing contest to see whose data was more accurate. And I don't think they could ever be accused of helping to issue a signal on the HO when it actually never happened. And perhaps a third reason... maybe they are also aware that the WSJ is the source "dictated to us" by Mr. Meikka.

    And then StockCharts' own analyst, Arthur Hill, issued a false report because he didn't understand the rule about the 50 day MA, lol. He said that as long as price was above the 50 day MA the HO was in working order. He was wrong about that and the HO did not go off when he published an article saying it had. He later recanted once I pointed out his error. I didn't tell him directly but he must have seen me write about it somewhere because he changed his article shortly thereafter to read that the "HO almost went off".

    Honestly HR, I think that to add more sources like Yahoo would just add to the confusion. When ZH talks about the 2.2% rule... they addressing one super important factor in the HO. By the way, they've got that wrong too. That rule was thrown out almost 3 years ago so they've still got their heads up their asses on that one. The rule was changed 3 years ago to 2.8% in order to adjust for the increased number of bond funds and ETFs, particularly the inverse ones.. But yes indeed, that rule is perfectly adaptable to the Nasdaq and I have seen times when the HO almost went off but didn't, while on the Nasdaq it did. But I don't report those occurrences because they actually have little to do with the HO and it's history. Again... why add to the confusion? I've been a purist on this entire matter since day one and I leave it to the others to make up shit, lol.

  12. Thanks AR! This doesn't relate to the HO, but I thought you would and your readers might find it interesting. I recently (last night) had a chat with a local news editor in the Middle East, a good friend, who has made it clear to me that the situation over their is much worse that our press is letting on. We all know that the Iran/Israel situation is a tinderbox, but there are several other places that could erupt also that coverage here seems to be either missing or dismissing. Much of the area is still in turmoil after the "Arab Spring" and it is just getting worse instead of better. My friend was born and raised in Egypt and follows the region very closely from UAE. If a catalyst is needed to wake the global markets up, it could come from the ME. But there is no telling when things will really unravel and become untenable by world leaders. Most will try to keep out of the mess in hopes it will settle down. But that doesn't seem to be working. Only time will tell.

  13. It that my same buddy Mark Bern from SA?

    I've met a ton of people from those regions in recent years. People from nearly every middle east country, and I gotta tell ya, the ones that have impressed me the most are the Iranians. They have a sense of confidence that I haven't seen in other nationalities in years. They are well aware that they are from ancient Persia and seem absolutely fearless of Israel. But they also seem almost "unattached" to Iran for the time being because they don't like the administration. But they love their country. Sound familiar?

    These folks I'm referring to are young, in their 20s and 30s so I'm not sure if they were born in Canada or over there. At the very least their parents are from there and these kids might be as well. But they speak English with perfection so I'm just not sure. But good looking? Holy smokes those young women that I've met from Iran are gorgeous. Their smiles are quite captivating to tell the truth. Very nice people.

  14. Iran has a lot of strikes against it economically and politically, but what it has always had is a great higher education system. Even though the radicals took over the rest of the country and tried to take it back to the dark ages, they had to keep programs like oil & gas, engineering, and medicine modern in order to keep the economy from collapsing. It was a pretty open system until a few years ago when they cracked down on the democracy protests. I've met Iranians who have emigrated to N America. I suppose the best students are the ones that make it over here anyway, but it is surprising talking with them. The conventional wisdom and media coverage leads us to believe it's a backwards wasteland, but that's not the case at all.

    Some other things are happening too. The Arab side of the Persian Gulf is now a pretty vibrant area for enterprise and tourism. I think a lot of that has been rubbing off on Iran over the past decade. There's a large black market in Iran that gets supplied from across the gulf.
    Plus the collapse of Iraq has had some interesting effects. Many Christians fled to Iran because they're churches were getting bombed and are settling in the urban areas.

  15. Does he say anything about the fuel shortage in Egypt?

  16. My pleasure. I really need to get over here and read more. I love your TA and what you do to simplify things. I laugh at those who think they always have it right and prefer those that get it right. Times like this separate the weak from the elite. Many only recognize the tools they know how to use and overlook the entire box that has a full supply. There are many that won't recognize what is going to happen because it will take so much time and by the time they realize it they will be asking themselves how it did. My opinion is that a year from now they will still be trying to buy a falling knife and won't be ready to when it is truly time.

  17. Dammit...forgot my main reason for coming back email addy for ya. I prefer you hit me with one so you don't realize I already have yours LOL. I need to email you so just drop a hello and I will respond

  18. Oh man are you ever bang on about how Iran is portrayed to us deceptively. There is scenery in that country that is absolutely beautiful. Tehran is a beautiful big city, no some sort of run down middle east hovel as we're led to believe by our glorious leaders and their media spin machine. Check out these photos of "beautiful Iran">

  19. it's roughly a month since i got first sell signals aligned , today we've closed less than 10 SPX pts higher. Traders' market.

  20. Beautiful. Wow thanks for sharing that.
    Kurdistan is supposedly where the garden of eden was or at least inspired the story.
    It's a region that spills over the (European imposed) borders of five countries. It's relatively stable area nowadays and could be a model for the rest of the region.
    I have some friends from the Iraqi side. They fled around the time Saddam was gassing them in the 80s. They spent a lot of time in safe havens in Iran before coming here.

  21. Nearly an hour later and fifty five Disqus issues later...a reply awaits

  22. dammit Alberta, someone has to say it. kudos to you. And I believe the bottom line on this discussion is not so much about a technical indicator, it is the much more fundamental idea of fewer and fewer horse engines fuelling a car that is still in race mode, and there is an element of certainty about what the outcome can only be...

  23. Thanks Abugarance. What the hell are you doing up at this time of night? Come to speak of it, what the hell am I doing up at this time of night? I'm thinking you might be in Europe?

    Anyway, welcome. And since this is your first time here I'd like to buy you a beer. Take your pick. And have as many as you like. First timers usually drink about 3 or 9 pints. So help yourself.

  24. hahaha...yes need a dozen...yes man am over in Paris...glorious sunny spring over here...fascinating to have the world map converging here at the comments from chaps down in SA...great job...

  25. Nicely explained and I understand completely. It's better not to add to the confusion and just get it right with what we have to begin with!!

    Well reasoned and well done.

  26. I just posted what I consider to be 3 very important daily provisional charts on the DAX, CAC and STOXX50 in the comments section of my blog.

    They're also a clear giveaway on how I'm trading them. ;-)

  27. Very spooky. Don't know if you saw this already, but in case you didn't . . .

    Then I put together a little longer term chart, and I'm not sure I see too much longer term correlation here. Things actually flip flopped in 2011 . . .
    (originally posted a couple of days ago)

  28. Repeating the update at the top of the post:

    Just for the record... as you know the HO issued its "initial" signal onMonday. Yesterday and today it came relatively close but did not fire the second round. The missing piece of the puzzle on both days was that there weren't quite enough new 52 week highs to trigger. 85 were required. According to the WSJ there were 60. According to StockCharts there were 80. In either case... not quite enough. In both cases... too close for comfort.

  29. I just did a big update to my last post in the comments section. Star the discussion
    and vote up the update if you found it to be of value. Thanks.

  30. Great work pardner. Thanks for the heads up. And "starred" you are :-)

  31. Here's a fabulous discussion fresh from this morning (April 19th) on the gold and silver markets and how what's happening there is a sign of the absolute desperation on part of the bankers. The theme here is that they're on the verge of losing control of the entire game and they know it.

  32. There are various causes why people today prefer this belt.

    Here is my site forums.Google-scraps.Com

  33. The belt operates to tighten your muscles by
    contracting them, and then relaxing them, and then repeating the motion, and it
    targets all the muscles in your abdominal section.

    my site:

  34. These modern fitness devices are worn about the waist, positioned appropriate around the abs and then using what is recognized as electronic muscle stimulation.

    Feel free to surf to my blog :: click through The next web page

  35. There are numerous factors why individuals favor this belt.

    Here is my webpage: Www.Marsvenusatwork.Com

  36. The signals connect with concentrated nerve locations, which in turn spread the
    signal to the whole abdominal region.

    my site; Visit this Hyperlink

  37. The belt utilizes gel pads postioned more than the center abdominals and the outside obliques.

    Take a look at my webpage flex Belt Coupons

  38. My adobe flash isn't working, so I can't watch this yet, but the commentary says they expect prices to diverge ... lower prices for the paper silver and higher prices for the physical. And that's exactly what's already happening. My friend tried to buy physical silver this week, and everyone was out of silver. One store had some, but would not sell it at 23+2=25, only for 30. Because that's what they paid for it. Finally found it on the internet for a higher add-on to spot price.

  39. looking at the futures market -it seems overcrowded trade and steady profit taking from 1673 level / when volatility went up in the topping range and margins had to be raised - dominoes fell

  40. some bear porn: DJ minis - if sellers take control might see something similar to what gold just did but currently in balance

  41. I absolutely love your blog and find the majority of your post's to be exactly I'm looking for.
    Would you offer guest writers to write content to suit your needs?
    I wouldn't mind publishing a post or elaborating on some of the subjects you write with regards to here. Again, awesome blog!

    Feel free to surf to my webpage - diets that work

  42. I’m not that much of a internet reader to be honest but
    your sites really nice, keep it up! I'll go ahead and bookmark your site to come back later on. All the best

    Visit my site - healthy diet plans for women

  43. Hi Alberta, is it possible that you refer me to the FAM's blog? Im not really active in leaving comments but i'm one of your readers that follow your blog religiously everyday. BTW, im one of the members in PL's forum as well. Thanks.

  44. Its like you learn my mind! You seem to grasp a lot about this, like
    you wrote the e-book in it or something. I feel that you could do with
    a few percent to pressure the message home a bit, however other than that, that
    is fantastic blog. A great read. I'll definitely be back.

    Take a look at my web page :: クロエバッグ

  45. Your mode of describing the whole thing in this article
    is genuinely nice, every one be able to easily
    be aware of it, Thanks a lot.

    Also visit my page

  46. All the governments are not going to bail out banks anymore.
    The stimulous from the central banks hasn't stimulated anything.
    Countries are still choking on too much debt.
    Technical damage abounds on equity indexes.
    BOJ's money is not flowing like QE1, QE2, QE3, and QE4 did (into gold, emerging economies, tech stocks, aud).
    This time bonds are getting bid in search of yields.
    Defensives are leading.
    Gold is coming unhinged (paper prices crashing and physical are higher than paper).

    It's all sounding like the twilight zone.

    And could the social mood over at trollville be any worse?

    One 10% correction and people will not be feeling real central bank worshippy.

    3rds of 3rds cropping up.

    Surely a sell-off is nigh.

  47. Hello very cool blog!! Man .. Excellent
    .. Wonderful .. I will bookmark your blog and take the feeds also?

    I'm glad to seek out numerous useful info right here in the publish, we need work out more techniques in this regard, thank you for sharing. . . . . .

    Feel free to visit my weblog :: michael clutch

  48. I've been surfing on-line more than three hours today, but I by no means discovered any fascinating article like yours. It is pretty price enough for me. Personally, if all webmasters and bloggers made just right content material as you did, the net will likely be much more useful than ever before.

    Here is my web blog :: michael kors womens watches

  49. Gold is due for a rise in price.

    GLD representing gold
    is currently:

    --Greater than 2 Std Deviations belos it's 200 EMA
    --Greater than 20% below it's 200 SMA.

    These are historical extremes
    and similar locations to the 2008 extreme bottoms.

    Gold appears due for a
    reversion to the mean
    [at least to its 200 MA]
    price rise.

    Tho note,
    In 2008, after returning to it's 200 MA
    gold plunged again below its prior low.

  50. That sounds reasonable. And the smack down may be over.
    But I wonder if we are close to a moment of mass recognition that paper gold (GLD) is over valued (not enough gold to support the number of certificates issued). Gold is selling for higher mark up to paper prices than before. Silver too. The treasury has run out of gold coins. Demand is very high for physical.

  51. The smackdown
    to stall physical buying
    and induce selling, failed.

    I dont think they will try again.
    Meaning up from here.

  52. Prechter's just gone fully-leveraged short - "designed to take advantage of what we believe is the area of a major top for a decline toward a major bottom about three years hence."

  53. I think you must be right. Why is there a draw down? Are people taking it out of storage because they don't trust storages?

    My friend can't find ANY silver or gold to buy. If a dealer has it he isn't selling it for a loss -- he paid $30 for some of it. And if they get some in to the dealer, he wants to keep it to sell it when it gets back to $50. Most dealers say they aren't seeing any new supply coming in ... just people wanting to buy it.

  54. I guess the drawdown
    is because longs are standing for delivery
    on their futures contracts
    and the amount supplied by producers short contracts
    is not covering the demand.

    The demand may be from bullion banks
    to cover borrowed gold
    or hold for the markup
    but certainly from eastern central banks
    who will bring it home.

    Also, the drop in gold stocks in GLD
    is now taken as evidence that
    investors are abandoning gold.
    I suspect it is actually 'authorized participants'
    turning their shares
    back into gold
    to fulfill obligations.

  55. I agree with Prechter this time. Good odds here ... broken wedge down with 5-waves, and 3-waves up to retest the bottom of the broken wedge, and a complete valid count to get here. And with the world losing confidence in the latest round of QE from Japan (they aren't buying risk assets like everyone had hoped maybe).

    Best set up I've ever seen.

  56. USDJPY:

    Looks like a beautiful triangle for B of (iv) of iii of extended 5th of Minor 3.
    Just like everything else in the yen for 6 months. Text book. 3 wavers. Perfect line support and resistance.
    Chewing up time for a correction after the monster (iii) move.
    Was suspecting it wanted to head back to the channel (i) to (iii) parallel with (ii) to this (iv).
    Skewering all the news-readers expecting 100 to fold because of the G-20 agreement.
    Just a beautiful thing to watch unfold. Like it's been scripted. I think it has been.

  57. Thank you for explaining that, I've been perplexed about what's going on under the hood with all these deliveries and how futures contracts work. Haven't explored that market before. Thanks again.

  58. Good count Greg. Looks like a fourth wave flat so far.
    Although the channel is being tested now.

  59. Max Keiser interviewed Andrew Maguire this week: (from 12:40). He echoes Fekete's fear of permanent backwardation in paper gold, effectively a default by the LBMA. In fairness the gold crowd have been saying this for years, but it doesn't mean they won't be right eventually. I wouldn't like to bet against Maguire, he's a shrewd cookie.

  60. Thanks Greg, I tried playing this C wave down on the break of 99.30, but it was a bucking broncoe and I got tossed off with my lowered stop. And my nerves got a bit frayed and it was 2 am, so I went to sleep :). But there will be more pips to be had for wave 5 up.

  61. Well, does anybody else think the top was in two weeks ago?
    SP500 just touched bottom of broken trend line for wave ii.
    Let wave iii begin.
    Gold started looking impulsive again.
    US 10-years are breaking out.
    AUDUSD looks like it could be done with 1-2,i-ii,(i)-(ii).
    Japan isn't buying stocks. So, QE impetus is fading ... it's not increasing monies to market.

    Banks are probably in dire straits with LEVERAGED losses now in:
    a. Gold
    b. Chinese stocks.
    c. AAPL
    d. short dollars.
    e. AUD was a massacre last week.

    Do the banks have an exit plan? Would they really keep buying stocks with money from the bond sales? At these levels?

  62. MMM said a stronger dollar cut into their revenue growth by 1.8%.

    Nobody had a stronger dollar figured into revenue projections for any of our companies.
    They earn over 50% overseas.

    5 years ago all the rage was companies with overseas exposure because the US market wasn't growing AND the dollar was weak. Now the strong dollar is a headwind to revenue.
    That's a deflation sign I hadn't foreseen.

  63. Simply wish to say your article is as astounding.
    The clearness in your post is simply great and i could assume you are an expert on this subject.

    Well with your permission let me to grab your feed to keep updated with forthcoming post.

    Thanks a million and please continue the enjoyable

    Feel free to visit my web page; groth hormones

  64. I daren't think the top is in, Greg. Every time I do - boom, another massive buying spree. Depressing.

  65. あなたがあな

    Review my web-site; シャネル アリュール

  66. The "nightmare scenario" unfolding:


    But if a rocket shot were to happen, this wouldn't be a bad way to draw it up, not bad at all.

    Lots of problems with his counts though. It might even be seen as a classic case study of what not to do. I think I'll wait for the eventual reversal and its consequent "relabeling" before I embark on that project though - the side-by-sides will be great visual aids. ;-)

  67. Stern seats are set inside the back again again again of boats.
    These sorts of chairs usually expense around $500.00. If people want to
    purchase any product so every bit of detail is acknowledged
    on website. Removable basic holder can supply according your standards.

    Also visit my weblog ... バック ヴィトン

  68. Snug seats are bass boat seats which matched to a
    sofa within a residence. Umbrellas and wet structures would also offer
    to the entirely weight of that bags. Saddle bags are hands down worn across the body and possess a very western be to them.
    It just ways we have that will be a little more creative.

    Here is my website :: バッグ ヴィトン

  69. I hear you. It's become blasphemy to say the top is in. Hasn't been a good bet, yet.
    But that break on SP500 and retouch of broken support ... that's the good set up there ... 5 down , 3 up. But yes, better wait for proof.

  70. Decelerating GDP in US after all this QE.

    After you strip out effects of silly changes in inventory, here's the annual growth rate picture according to Barron's:

    Q3 2012: 2.4%
    Q4 2012 1.9%
    Q1 2013 1.5%
    Not that fundamentals matter one whit.
    But money is flowing to defensives with dividends in the US, and even defensives in emerging markets.
    Growth used to matter. One day it still will.

  71. 。リゾート2011年グッチのハンドバッグは、古典的な、ニューヨークの滑走路

    My blog -

  72. 。袋のいく
    ュのが、結晶の生地で購入することができます "ヒステリアホーボー 'を含めて。または多分あなたはアイコンのビットは、その黒マルチカラーのレザーとなり、クラスの上位にあるすべての服をしたいと思います。これらおよび他の多くは今年グッチのハンドバッグのラインに含まれています。

    Visit my webpage: gucci

  73. はい - 彼女は明らかにファッションの世界に声明を作成

    Feel free to visit my blog シャネル 財布

  74. 第三に、ショル

    my blog post; シャネル コピー

  75. Hey Albertarocks, how's it going?
    Might the blimp indicator have gone off today for the second time?

    Check out the big picture SP500 counts at Daneric's tonight, they all look DONE.
    Could it possibly be that now, after all these years, we have arrived at the beginning of the next big wave down?

    Kind of quiet at the top.

  76. シャネルは世界中で好評のブランドであり、それは最高の

    My web site; chanel

  77. Hi Greg. Sorry man, I haven't been around much lately. Life is just too damned exciting over there in Bitcoin world I guess, lol. I 'do' get a kick out of people who slam BTC though because it just shows how they have absolutely no idea what Bitcoin really is. BTC absolutely 'is' a currency but certainly doesn't represent the end of all other currencies as some of the trashers claim it's meant to do. The driving engine behind BTC is that it represents a global revolution against the banking establishment and it is here to stay. A great deal of fun too. I can't possibly describe how wonderfully EW counts and old school TA methods work in the Bitcoin market since there is no overpowering banking overlord to manipulate it. IOW, it is revealing to me how much Ralph Elliott's theory about market mood is correct as long as the 'nature' of the collective conscience of the trading masses is allowed to manifest itself with natural honesty... unaffected by the demons of Constitution Avenue. It's quite amazing actually. A real eye opener.

    No the HO hasn't been close at all lately because there have been a lot of new 52 week highs being made... too many for the HO but not enough to be impressive for a market that is so close to an all-time high. It'll likely take another pullback of 2 or 3 percent to trigger it again.

  78. Hey, nice to hear from you buddy!
    Yes, I know how forex can suck me into it and I sort of am not spotted in the blogoshere for some time before surfacing again. Tight stomached and out of breath a bit.

    I would like to learn more about bitcoin, because anything taking a store of money out of the manipulators hands is a very good thing. These currencies are insane. ALL the bankers printing, and since the worse debt offenders are printing to buy debt from the others, none of the central bankers mind. And it's hard to buy silver and gold physical. Today's notice was that 15,000 monster boxes of silver (500 oz) sold out in 4 minutes. Last week it took 8 minutes to sell out.

    And your comment about elliott waves working beautifully since there is no big player distorting it, well that's just outstanding! It's hard to find those markets. USDJPY acted that way for a good bit. But it sure is beautiful to see perfect wave forms. Gives you an advantage to be able to see them too. Like counting cards in black jack. Sometimes it can be like peeking at the dealers hand, almost feels like cheating :)

    And thanks for the HO update. Interesting that all those 52 week highs are probably from defensive issues like utilities and medical and consumer staples. Lots of currencies setting up for 1-2,i-ii,(i)-(ii). So much more bearish than SP500 which may have just finished 1-2.
    Good night,

  79. Morning all, hope everyone is well. Has DK been around lately? Would love to hear his thoughts on the AUD.

    Hochberg has been sounding like a stuck record recently but his comments last night were amusing:

    "Honestly, I was looking for something to brighten the day and today's
    Fed meeting and subsequent afternoon statement was just the tonic. The
    U.S. Fed stated that they are maintaining their $85 billion monthly pace
    of bond buying but that they were "prepared to increase or decrease
    their purchases." We're either going to buy more or we're going to buy
    less! One financial television anchor called that statement "big." A
    commentator said they put the "i" word first and the "d" word second,
    which is significant. I couldn't make this up if I tried.

    The European Central Bank is no better as they may announce another rate
    cut tomorrow (Thursday), from almost zero percent to almost, almost
    zero percent. The ECB's benchmark rate is currently at a record low
    0.75% and economists are debating whether they will cut it further, as
    if too high of an interest rate burden is the reason that the EU has
    experienced five consecutive quarters of economic contraction."

  80. Checked in on Daneric's comments board for the first time in months yesterday, Greg. And who did I find batting away the trolls?! You have more far patience than me, sir!

  81. Hahaha. A rare drop-in visit for me as well.
    I swore that place off this year, and only make it back once or twice a month.
    It's a ghost town as far as good contributions go.
    Sad -- right at the top it's been successfully ruined.

    But yes, staying away is the sanest response!

  82. Nice comments. That is amusing.
    EU's contractions being caused by too high interest rates is like saying high rates of cancer is caused by a lack of chemotherapy. Hahaha.

    Hey, check out DK's site over there ... Death or Glory.
    He's got some updated (3 days ago) counts on AUDUSD.

    I think it may have started iii. that 2 wave was looking like an WXY three days ago, but may have announced itself as an abc, and completed with yesterday's breakage.

  83. Hi Tom. DK shows up every once in a while over at Fam's blog but he's not overly active there either. But that's where I see him most often although I don't participate there much more either. It hasn't developed the way I was hoping it would with some of the participants there just finding it impossible to drop the "Daneric's" topic. They go over there to stir the shit and then scurry back to Fam's for safety. Just not my kind of activity. Mind you, the other day I myself did drop into Danno's to drop off an amusing picture. And of course I got the usual assholish comment from Wagner, slapped him right back, and then left. But to go there to stir things up is just not in the spirit of leaving there in the first place. The majority of blog sites out there don't permit assholes to hang about, this being one of them, but those sites also don't attract very large audiences. Pretty revealing fact, yes? lol Good to see you as always :-)

  84. Oh man, where do I start to help you get informed about BTC? I guess the best place to start is to first find out what it is. These should get you started:

  85. The Hollywood elite are getting the hell out of Dodge apparently. Good luck selling those mansions kids. You're gonna take a shit kicker of a loss but you already know that right?
    Escape From Los Angeles

  86. Hey AR,

    maybe Blackrock can buy them.

    I was just reading how they're buying up homes all over the place. The Fed has to re-inflate the bubble in order have MBSs to buy, so they can re-inflate the bubble.

    It's getting to be outright dangerous to live in California these days

    "I'm going to grab your baby, and don't resist, and don't fight me ok?" a Sacramento police officer said in the video.

    "He's like, 'okay let your son go,' so I had to let him go, and he grabbed my arm, so I couldn't take Sammy. And they took Sammy, and they just walked away," Anna said.

  87. Every time I read that I can't believe it. I would definitely not show as much restraint as they did.

  88. Same here brother. It's just unbelievable, criminal beyond description, a government gone absolutely mad ala Hitler's era. Who the fk do they think they are stealing peoples' children. You know what I do to trolls around here... it's common knowledge... I shoot them in the face. Cops had better stop trolling or the day will come when they'll get the same treatment from some father who decides that "that's MY daughter and you're not taking her... for any reason. And nobody will be surprised.

  89. Shockingly, the ending diagonal is still technically valid even with a new high ...
    And notice that these recent up days had low volume, so there is distribution going on even with the new high.
    And ED's can have over throws I think I read.

  90. Just went for a run and the following connection came to me:

    Maybe the top won't be in for equities until the yen's third minor wave tops.

    DK said something similar earlier this week to me on his blog or in a tweet ... he's not looking for tops until AUDJPY tops on his wave count. I'm looking at USDJPY, and think it has two more waves up to go (v) of iii of extended 5th, and then v to finish off Minor 3. Target 107ish.

    So, if the yen is being used as a carry trade funding currency since it's declining in value (a key trait of a carry trade currency), then it will continue to be used as a funding currency UNTIL it no longer declines in value. Like in minor wave 4. Surely the yen weakness has inspired japanese buying of dollar denominated things (bonds and equities). Foreign fund flow into US has exploded, I hear.

  91. I also think now EVERYONE and their brother assumes the market can only go up because of the Fed.
    For a bear to suggest this is a top, they would get ridiculed. Which is a topping sign.

  92. Thanks AR, I will want to read these over the weekend, and start catching up on the bitcoin. Merci in advance! Thanks for sharing your knowledge gleaned!

  93. One more new high! Tis amazing.

    Glad I spend more time with USDJPY. Much more predictable than that market.

  94. Don't understand how you can continue to call crashes and miss a huge bull market....just pure nonsense..Hope you people actually don't trade for real money...jeez!

  95. I've lost count of topping signs over the last couple of months tho. Stopped out for the third time recently, getting expensive now. At least I'm not leveraged short without a stop like a certain veteran newsletter writer. Really not sure at what point to risk going back in. Time to cool off and reassess.

  96. High Rev's latest post worth a read, as always:

  97. Hey Tom.
    Hope all is well up your end
    I have virtually given up trying to count AUDUSD recently -it's just such a mess.

    My main focus has been tracking AUDJPY which I believe is going to be 'The Holy Grail'- I have set up a blog just for this single purpose-

    I do have a sneaky feeling that AUDUSD still wants to make it to 1.06 for one last time, but that's based more on gut feeling than anything more concrete.

    There is talk now of an interest rate cut tomorrow (May 7th), so that could get it rolling to the downside.

    All ze best

  98. Hey folks. So I just put up a new post on my blog, but very interesting how my roadmaps are playing out. I basically use correlation charts which line up with Ganns cycle theories, and follow them closely along with reading your thoughts and looking at technicals. Here is my latest post:

    AR, I love this HO stuff, its what initially brought me to your blog as I had become interested in it (though felt almost cult-like, lol). I hardly post on blogs so forgive me, have resorted to reading twitter more.


  99. Who are you talking to? Who is calling crashes? Who is "continuing" to call crashes? Who is missing a huge bull market? Who do you mean by "you people"? Yes, we trade for real money and my guess is that most of us would tear your fucking ass right off when it comes to being good traders. How do I know that? From your childish attitude. People of your ilk are typically failures so one thing I know for sure, you're no trader. So who exactly is your post directed at? And a word of caution, use some class when you come back to answer the question or you'll get what every other troll gets when he tries to stir shit up here. Are you ready to try again? Well are ya punk?

  100. It's perfect time to make some plans for the future and it's time to be happy.
    I've learn this submit and if I may just I desire to suggest you some interesting things or suggestions. Perhaps you can write next articles regarding this article. I desire to read more issues about it!

    Also visit my weblog - Replica Rolex

  101. I am sure this post has touched all the internet visitors,
    its really really fastidious piece of writing on building up new weblog.

    Have a look at my site ... Replica Watches

  102. I really like your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did
    you make this website yourself or did you hire someone to
    do it for you? Plz answer back as I'm looking to construct my own blog and would like to find out where u got this from. thanks

    my page :: Replica Watches

  103. あなたがシャネルの

    Feel free to surf to my page; シャネル アリュール

  104. WOW...that was a professional reply, I mean adolescent reply...Don't know what you're talking about but somebody owns actually run a blog called "real winning trades" and yes we have proven trades in and out....Read Danerics blog and have seen you calling crashes for a long time...oh and your indicator is hog wash..Of course I don't have to tell you that the market already good luck, you still need it! Oh and I'm referring to all the doomers that think they're smarter than the market and can't follow a simple trend...

  105. AUD - my breakfast porridge gave me an idea

    RBA holding rates could send it rocketing

  106. tradingatrend...May 6, 2013 at 7:21 PM

  107. Hmmm, that is something to consider.
    I'll have to ponder that during my commutes.
    Thanks for the food for thought to go with my honey roasted peanuts!
    I'll get back to you if I come up with any armor-repairing rebuttals.

  108. Here's my point and I want you to pay attention this time. I don't give a rat's ass about your blog since you don't even have the courtesy to supply a link. I doubt it exists. Nor do I care one iota about your horseshit claim that you've seen me call crashes for a long time. Bullshit. You're a flat out liar. For one thing I haven't posted there in 16 months other than the occasional one-sentence comment. You're full of shit and you know it And as for somebody "owning me", dude you have no fking clue who you're talking to. Nobodyever owned me and believe me asshole, nobody ever will.

    So just to set the record straight. We run a clean blog here and have absolutely no tolerance for assholes. Go back and re-read your first comment. That was a comment made by an asshole. You're very fortunate to have had an opportunity to post a second one but I gave you the chance. You blew it. But you're not banned yet because I'm very reluctant to ban people and have banned a grand total of about 2. And you know who they are. You are already one of those two people So I promise you this... you either cut the crap and post like a decent human being, preferably with something of value, perhaps the link to your award winning blog, or you're gone permanently. That's not much to ask. You're welcome to try one more time. If you have anything of value to offer please do so.

  109. This is truly starting to sound a whole good portion like nike actually is not it?
    There is nothing complicated in learning it works.

    Knowning that these shoes are your favorite bang for
    your main buck is important. Gradually, Nike shoes have become
    the footwear men like to wear. http://www.kkph.

    My website ... air max shoes

  110. I dont' believe you can make the distinction based on ratios etc.

    As far as I remember, C waves (in zig-zags & flats) have all the characteristics of third waves.

    I suppose their power, length, ratios etc depend on where and when they manifest.

    in USDJPY current C wave = exactly 2.61 x A -this is quoted as 'rare' according to EWI.

    either way, I would suggest once this triangle resolves to 101-102, we'll see if we get impulsive to the downside or something more resembling your 4th wave.

  111. Thank you for keeping the uncivil ones behaving or banned, it's greatly appreciated.

  112. Thanks for your thoughts!

    That is a good plan to see how it behaves then, and that will determine once and for all what animal we have here.

  113. If you wish for to improve your experience simply keep
    visiting this site and be updated with the most recent gossip posted here.

    my homepage ::

  114. Incredible! This blog looks exactly like my old one!
    It's on a entirely different subject but it has pretty much the same page layout and design. Excellent choice of colors!

    Here is my blog ... Replica Watches

  115. Hey DK, I'm still sticking to my 2 year 4th wave triangle for the A$. Immediately bullish option is that we go up straight from here. If today's lows (pre-employment report) are taken out I expect we get to 98ish... good risk/reward here

  116. Just wanted to draw your attention to the video above, and to let y'all know I'm still alive :-)

  117. Very quickly this site will be famous amid all blog visitors, due
    to it's fastidious articles or reviews

    Here is my webpage - Louis Vuitton Handbags Outlet

  118. Today there was carnage in the currency markets. Dollar starting a third wave up?!

    USDJPY up 200 pips.
    AUDUSD broke levels not broken for over a year, and a third wave down has been started (my opinion).
    EURUSD may have started down with iii.
    GBPUSD may be getting ready to plunge.
    Daneric has an inverted H&S on the dollar basket.

    Will the equities have to follow?
    Gold and silver ETF's have to be ready for panic soon with paper demands : physical above 130:1 according to ZH.

  119. Glad you're out there! I can't get that video, or I'd watch it.
    Think many third waves are beginning in the currency market.
    Equities be damned.

    It strikes me that the search for yield has been much worse of an effect this time than in 2006.
    Then people bought MBS.
    Now they are buying bonds from Germany, Spain, etc., currencies to get yield (high risk), even US bonds to get away from currency devaluations. Buying stocks on leverage.

    Then investors shorted Lehman into oblivion. Now the yen is getting shorted into oblivion to make a return. Aided by BOJ. Countries currencies are so strong it's causing problems, so they are weakening them (AUD) by lowering rates.

  120. Now I don't think USDJPY was a triangle after all, but an abc for (iv), and i,ii,iii so far of (v). Cause that e-wave wasn't a 3-waver .. but an abcxabc. Not that it matters much. But 97 + 5 = 102 still the target for (v) also.

  121. Pick out the best experience for you to make sure you see
    a residential home. As with the things that would go into the bag, the bag would also a few additional weight.
    StepStone provides a top notch set of Full amount
    of Talent Management solutions. Where to find and buying Lv Neverfull inexpensive consum totes?

  122. Just saw the "JPM - Headed For Trouble" in the upper right.

    Did you see my post last weekend on JPM?

    Is JPM About to Blow Up (or in the process)?

  123. JPM's stock looks like the volume is indicating selling at the top ... could weaken soon as this gets out. Very interesting. Would like to understand what's going on with the gold. Maybe 130:1 ... paper:physical.

  124. Just saw DK's counts ... and mention that AUDUSD. EURUSD and GBPUSD may not be ready to plunge yet. One last wiggle higher first.

  125. Hi HR. No, I'm sorry to say that I didn't see your post. But please don't feel offended... I didn't see "anybody's" posts in the past few weeks. I just have so little interest in the stock markets these days that I can't seem to bring myself to give a damn what anybody has to say... it doesn't matter. As long as the central banks are allowed to trade in the stock markets they're fucked as markets. The bankers have ruined every market in the world and they simply don't function anymore. So I basically just don't care right now other than the fact that I want to see JP Morgan burned to the ground and Dimon hanging by his nuts from a streetlight somewhere in Manhattan as soon as possible. I'd probably start to care again when I see some sort of significant change something along those lines. Having said that though, at least you and I seem to be on the same page at least, in regards to the fact that JPM might finally be in deeper shit than they can handle. One can only pray I guess.

  126. I think my breakfast porridge idea was rubbish.

    But I'm now thinking something else (still bearish) after I consulted with the augurs.

    I can't divulge as it's someone else's private work, but just try turning the triangle upside-down & see what you get.

  127. I sympathise, AR. Feel much the same.

  128. Things might start getting more exciting. We were also talking about it in the comments of my weekend post (which also suggests that things might be about to get a bit more interesting as well):


  130. Thanks for the video link CR. I wasn't even aware that Hatfield had done that performance. Pretty gutsy if you ask me, but good for him. He's a winner. I added it up top just to make a visit to this page worthwhile these days :-)

  131. Warning. Danger. Red Alert.

    Japanese Yields on 10 years just spiked 20 basis points in three days. The first day was the Thursday blood bath in USDJPY. What looked then like a no news day, but this is very big news.


    1. Japan has 25x debt to tax revenues.
    2. So, if these costs went immediately to their debt service costs, they would now be paying 0.20% x 25 = 5% more of tax revenues to service their monstrous debt. So, if it spikes another 40 basis points, that would be 10% more of their tax revenues to go to debt service.
    3. So, it won't take much of a yield spike before they are bankrupt.
    4. As they go bankrupt, the usdjpy should continue to sky rocket.
    5. Since capital can't flee that debt black hole fast enough.
    6. What's the only safe haven currency left? USD.
    7. What's been spiking since Thursday? USD.
    8. And this yield spike is AFTER the BOJ announced in April they would be buyers of JGB's. So why are the Japanese selling them?
    9. And as Kyle Bass says, the Japanese have no idea what they are asking for ... 2% inflation will bankrupt them faster than if they did nothing.

    Makes me wonder if the USDJPY will just go into spike mode instead of finishing minor 3, then 6 months of minor 4, then 6 months of minor 5 for intermediate 1, then intermediate 2, and a year later, intermediate 3 to get us into the 150 range. Spike ala 1997.

    Incidentally, the Asian Currency Crisis started with hot money flows to high yielding countries, a real estate bubble there, a strong dollar really messed with the equation.

    The dollar looks ready to rumble!

  132. Interesting that the currency markets are starting to break down -- third waves are about to crest. AUDUSD broke some key resistance levels, and has already sold of 600 pips in a couple weeks. That is huge. Third wave may be beginning at long last. GBPUSD is making noise for the third wave. Not sure yet, but potential is there. EURUSD will eventually make a third wave. The equity markets? Who knows. But Japanese yields spiking! We are close to major stresses in financial markets if capital starts fleeing Japan like it already looks like it is. USDJPY has risen 30% in 6 months. Japanese are dumping JGB's and buying other bonds to get out of their wrecked currency country.

    We are close to an implosion my spidey senses are starting to tingle.

  133. thanks for sharing that summary of the changes to be expected.
    It's interesting to hear all the hints the Fed has put out there, and nobody believes it.

  134. SPX 1648 and counting. 100 points in 16 trading days. Beyond belief.

  135. If we take the head as the low of 22 April, we've just completed an iH&S targeting 1650. We've also just tagged the LT trendline connecting the bottoms of the 1994 and 2002 lows.

    Trying a short here at just below highs for the day, stops just above. Prechter still leveraged short without a stop from high 1590s remember...

  136. "And nobody believes it" is right!!!!

    Unbelievable price action today in equities.

    On the other hand, the USD, Dr. Copper, PM's, oil, and the like are not so keen on things.

    This just tweeted by Bill Gross:
    "Never have investors reached so high in price for so low a return. Never have investors stooped so low for so much risk."

    Personally, I'm getting a little dizzy. ;-)

    From Phoenix Capital:

    "Stocks have gone almost straight up for 89 days (we haven’t had a 3+day
    correction in that long). This is an all time record. The last time
    stocks rallied without a 3+ day correction was in the buildup to the
    Crash of 1987."

    I think what they meant to say was 3+ RED DAYS. Oh well.

    Here's a chart with a 1987 final rally overlay of the last 3 months. Pretty damn nice correlation!

  137. Chart posted in a reply a little lower ( ):

  138. Canadian housing bubble beginning to pop?

  139. DeMark signals:

  140. It could be the spiking JGB's is what started freaking out the currency market.
    Because that means Japan is getting ever closer to a Greece-like event.
    The 3rd largest economy going under isn't priced in, and nobody can bail them out.
    So capital flows are flowing to the dollar.

  141. That's very spooky.
    Would be even funerer if you overlaid the next bit of 1987 on it too.
    Can you do that- or you would need a way bigger chart,lol?

  142. So, banks are shorting AUDUSD into oblivion, having done that already to the yen for 6 months.

    It strikes me that things have gotten much worse than in 2008.
    Then we had speculators short Lehman into oblivion.
    Now whole currencies are being shorted into oblivion (yen) ... with the country's explicit consent!

  143. Superb website you have here but I was wondering if you knew of
    any message boards that cover the same topics discussed here?
    I'd really love to be a part of community where I can get suggestions from other experienced individuals that share the same interest. If you have any suggestions, please let me know. Kudos!

    Also visit my web-site ::

  144. Appreciating the persistence you put into your site and in
    depth information you offer. It's good to come across a blog every once in a while that isn't the same old rehashed information.
    Excellent read! I've bookmarked your site and I'm adding your RSS feeds to my Google account.

    my website ... Ralph Lauren Outlet Online

  145. Thanks in favor of sharing such a fastidious opinion, article is nice,
    thats why i have read it entirely

    My website ... christian louboutin shoes

  146. What�s Going down i'm new to this, I stumbled upon this I have found It absolutely useful and it has aided me out loads. I hope to give a contribution & aid other customers like its aided me. Good job.

    Have a look at my blog post michael kors uk

  147. When I originally commented I clicked the "Notify me when new comments are added"
    checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get several e-mails with the same comment.

    Is there any way you can remove people from that service?


    Stop by my web-site tropical fish

  148. Hey I discovered this web site to be really attention-grabbing!


    Feel free to surf to my weblog - trying To Conceive tips

  149. It's my 'first time'! ;-)

    SafeHaven has been so good as to publish my first article ever on a major financial site!

    On The Lookout For A Spike High Top In Equities

    Needless to say, I'm delighted! :-))

  150. As we say in Spanish, "ellos han vuelto a las andadas".

    An English version (funny how this hasn't hit the mainstream press yet, don't you think?):

    The threat to confiscate uninsured depositor funds (in the event that it's necessary) coupled with a huge OMT bazooka threat to back those sovereigns (in the event that it's necessary) creates a huge incentive to convert those uninsured deposits into sovereign backed bonds (the next best guarantee, or, actually, now the best) such that rates fall, and these guys say, "okay, everything's well and fine", and they go back to their old ways.

    Talk about having your head in the clouds.

  151. Hello to every body, it's my first pay a quick visit of this weblog; this blog consists of amazing and really good information in support of readers.

    Here is my web blog: michael kors bag

  152. Nice work HR!!! Looks like we got the spike high last night which was the culmination of a 1.618x rally of prior ;-)

  153. hello!,I like your writing so much! share we communicate more
    about your post on AOL? I require a specialist on this area to solve my problem.
    May be that's you! Looking forward to see you.

    Feel free to visit my web site;

  154. Very nice article, just what I needed.

    Feel free to surf to my webpage ...

  155. Thank you for any other informative blog. The place else may just I am
    getting that kind of info written in such a perfect
    approach? I have a mission that I am just now operating on, and I've been on the glance out for such information.

    My blog post - Cheap Louis Vuitton Bags

  156. It is appropriate time to make some plans for the future and it
    is time to be happy. I have read this post and if I could I want to
    suggest you some interesting things or suggestions.
    Perhaps you can write next articles referring to this article.

    I desire to read more things about it!

    Here is my web site: Sac A Main Louis Vuitton

  157. I enjoy your posts. the last couple of trading days suggest we were very close to a second and third sighting. Any remarks?

  158. The Elliott wave principle suggests also a large move down so this is in sync with the HO. But why is HO much more aggressive in its outcome than EW is?

  159. Thank you for another great post. Where else could anybody
    get that kind of info in such an ideal means of writing?
    I have a presentation next week, and I'm on the search for such information.

    my web blog This Site

  160. What is the website owner s opinion on this latest HO???Supposedly the originator of this is going to cash.

  161. Yup, Jim Meikka is going to cash. Personally I think everybody should go to cash because regardless of how deep the next pullback is, one thing the Hindenburg Omen does not foresee is higher prices. I think it makes perfect sense for investors to take their billions of dollars worth of free profits courtesy of an insane Fed off the table and just stand aside and let this thing play out. There's nothing to lose by standing aside.

    Having said that, personally I don't think we're going to see "the big one" this time. In my humble opinion I think the most we're going to see for a pullback is probably the 8-10% variety... if not less. Because as far as I can tell, the bankers still haven't lost control and they're still insane.

  162. A great thing to investigate would be to check the time frame a Hindenberg Omen takes to correct from top to bottom.Of course 2008 took a while but the lessor corrections might be interesting to check out also.But then...everything goes faster in our algorhymic stock market.Thanks for responding.

  163. Just an 12:42 pm today the yen took a gigantic drop against the dollar.Could the Omen s first crash be in Japan tonight on the Nikkei?This can t be good for their equity markets.

  164. Correction...the dollar dropped against the yen---which is horrific for Japanese stocks.Fasten your seat belts.

  165. If you don't mind, would you copy and paste your question onto the current post? This article is 6 weeks old and the HO has gone off again since this post was published. I have published 3 articles since this one, so there is a "current" post up that can be found here. The people who usually comment on my blog are over there now. And your question is a very good one because the Yen has always been very, very tightly related to what happens in equities. Thanks :-)

  166. This is the right webpage for everyone who wants to understand this topic.
    You realize a whole lot its almost tough to argue with you (not that I really would want to…HaHa).
    You definitely put a new spin on a subject that has been written about for years.
    Great stuff, just great!

    Also visit my web blog Going Here

  167. Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it
    seems as though you relied on the video to make your point.
    You definitely know what youre talking about, why throw away your intelligence on just posting videos to your weblog when you could be giving us something informative to read?

    Check out my website ... Christian Louboutin Outlet

  168. Does your blog have a contact page? I'm having problems locating it but, I'd like
    to send you an e-mail. I've got some ideas for your blog you might be interested in hearing. Either way, great website and I look forward to seeing it develop over time.

    my blog ... Sac Louis Vuitton Pas Cher

  169. Hello there! I could have sworn I've been to this blog before but after browsing through some of the post I realized it's new to me.
    Anyhow, I'm definitely delighted I found it and I'll be
    book-marking and checking back often!

    Feel free to surf to my homepage monoaural beats

  170. Keep this going please, great job!

    My homepage Louis Vuitton Bags

  171. I do not write many responses, but after reading through a great deal of remarks on this page "Hindenburg Omen Issues First Signal Since Aug. 2010".
    I do have a few questions for you if it's allright. Is it only me or do a few of these responses look like they are written by brain dead individuals? :-P And, if you are posting at other sites, I would like to keep up with you. Would you post a list of all of your social pages like your twitter feed, Facebook page or linkedin profile?

    my site - Boutique Guess

  172. Awesome article.

    Also visit my web blog ... Sac Louis Vuitton Pas Cher

  173. Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally,
    it seems as though you relied on the video to make your point.
    You clearly know what youre talking about, why throw away
    your intelligence on just posting videos to your site when you could be giving us something informative
    to read?

    Also visit my homepage ... free top essays

  174. Heya i am for the primary time here. I found this
    board and I to find It really helpful & it helped me out much.

    I hope to give one thing back and aid others such as you helped

    My weblog ... lebron 10 Shoes

  175. Hello to all, how is everything, I think
    every one is getting more from this web page, and your views are nice in favor of new viewers.

    Feel free to visit my web blog KD Basketball Shoes

  176. It's going to be end of mine day, however before end I am reading this wonderful article to increase my experience.

    Also visit my website :: tragbare mp3 player

  177. Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied
    on the video to make your point. You clearly know what youre talking about, why waste your intelligence on
    just posting videos to your site when you could be giving
    us something enlightening to read?

    Also visit my blog :: Air Max

  178. turn period of time to shit about for twenty proceedings in a begrime.
    The strait advice in think of, you should labour to reckon that in aim when you
    go through the lump is easier to do.How To position The Best Deals Online numerous sept touch that
    your view flavour invigorated later a Moncler Baby Stivali UGG Prezzo Moncler Outlet Online Stivali Tipo UGG Borse Moncler
    Paraorecchie UGG Sito Ufficiale Moncler Stivali UGG Prezzo Moncler Trebaseleghe Prezzo UGG Moncler Sito Ufficiale
    UGG Saldi Stivali Tipo UGG UGG Sito Ufficiale Giubbini Moncler Moncler Spaccio Moncler Trebaseleghe UGG Bambino UGG Grigi Guanti UGG discovering
    that they can revel. Vegetables, toasted
    or raw, and yield for afters, bequeath go elsewhere.Providing voluminous amounts of spam messages or
    opposite day is besides a leg either care you would
    bear a lot of the superior marketing cost.

    If a footgear that includes opposite

    Also visit my homepage: UGG Grigi