Saturday, March 16, 2013

Degree of Complacency At An All-time High

With special thanks to contributor Drew, it has come to our attention that the $SPX:$VIX ratio is now at an all-time high.  I had written articles previously about the S&P 500 as if it were priced in units of the $VIX but in all honesty I had recently taken my eye off that ball.  So I really appreciate the good fortune to have stumbled upon Drew's comment this morning and for paying attention to what he had to say. 

The previous peak in this particular ratio had occurred in January 2007 when the ratio topped out at 138.35.  Of course at the time we had no way of knowing whether or not the investing community was going to become even more complacent or whether that was the actual apogee of that ridiculous curve.  As it turns out it was the peak, and nine months later the equities markets began their epic crash into the lows of March 2009.  Today, complacency has reached a new level.  Never before have investors been so convinced that a market pullback is all but impossible.

But the most striking aspect of today's new high in this measure is the stunning speed with which it has attained the current level.  Just take a look at that spike!  As the weekly chart reveals (not shown) in just the past 21 calendar days this ratio has shot up from 97.08 to 138.37.  It could be argued that what this phenomenon is actually saying is that the degree of complacency as measured by the $VIX has exploded by 42.5% in the past three weeks.  Never before has the ratio been even remotely close to this extreme as seen by applying Bollinger bands.  In this case, I have opted to honor the 30,2 Bollinger configuration out of respect for contributor Drew who had used those settings when he brought this event to our attention on FireAngelMaverick's exciting new blog.  In the chart below we look at the monthly chart from 30,000 feet in order to grasp the enormity of this extreme:

Caption edited since initial publication: Click here for larger updating version.  The ratio has adjusted almost immediately, mostly from an explosion higher in $VIX

But in order to really appreciate the extent to which this latest market melt-up has been achieved with near-total conviction that a pullback is all but impossible, we have to drill way down close to examine the ratio as it relates to its own Bollinger bands.  Words can barely describe the extent of this aberration.  Let the chart speak for itself:

Caption edited since initial publication: Click here for larger updating version.  The ratio has adjusted almost immediately, mostly from an explosion higher in $VIX.

And finally, I'd like to add one more touch here.  In the chart below I've set the standard deviation setting to on the Bollinger bands to the point where the $SPX is just touching the upper band.  Amazingly, the $SPX:$VIX ratio on a monthly basis currently resides 2.94 standard deviations above the 30 month moving average.


Right click chart for option to open in a new tab for a larger view.

Just so that we appreciate how extreme this degree of complacency is, it behooves us to recognize that in the standard normal distribution Bell Curve, 99.7% of events will fall below 3 standard deviations.  The ratio is currently at 2.94 standard deviations.


There's not much else to say.  The pictures speak for themselves and the only thing we know with 100% certainty is that the snap-back to reality will be violent.  We do not know when that will happen but if you are long this market it might be a good idea to take a little off the table PDQ.  Doncha think?

Be careful out there and until next time... stay safe.




.............

258 comments:

  1. I wonder what the heist in Cyprus will mean for markets and the Euro on Sunday night.

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  2. Isn't that just stunning? I'm not quite sure what to expect but I don't think there's a chance in hell it will be "status quo" on Monday morning. BTW Tom, thanks for the reference on Twitter. Not many people follow me on Twitter yet so the majority don't even know I've become a Twit nor that I even exist. So your reference is appreciated. This one is on me. In fact I have to run now, but when I get back I want to see that you've knocked off all 5 of those, lol.

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  3. "Cyprus state broadcaster CyBC reported on Saturday that German Finance Minister actually entered the Eurogroup meeting on Friday proposing a 40 percent haircut on Cypriot bank accounts. Sarris stated on Saturday that this had also been the proposal of the International Monetary Fund." http://ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_16/03/2013_488169

    So an external body, acting on behalf of a group of foreign banks, sought to unilaterally expropriate 40 per cent of the funds of the individual savers of a sovereign nation. Beyond astonishing.

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  4. Pleasure, sir, I always find your charts and comments interesting.

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  5. Thanks again. You're in a generous mood today Tom. Edward Harrison favoured one of my tweets today as well which was a bit of thrill too, lol.

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  6. If there was ever a catalyst to inspire a run on banks globally it's the
    theft that just occurred in Cyprus. Great move you banking idiots. I'm dead serious, I think the banking mafia really shot themselves in the face with this one.

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  7. thanks for sharing , Alberta, for this leg my main targets are in 1200 SPX area, but new Highs after

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  8. A bank run before a market crash. That would be unexpected. To me, anyway.

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  9. I've posted a few times over at FAM's, based on the other two major tops, there could be a pullback of over 10 percent, lasting about 30 days, then a retest of the high lasting about three or four months, then the rollover. The retest could be vigorous, maybe to new highs, because with nothing fundamental under the market (as was hoped), the panic button could be hit with the 10 percent correction, and the kitchen sink thrown at it. Then maybe new highs, punching above the triple top resistance line, however briefly, maybe over 1600. Then the rollover.


    The retest could truncate, however. The markets are already way up there, and that's a big resistance line.

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  10. You're welcome pavve and thanks for dropping in. That was your first comment and as is customary here, we welcome newcomers with a few drinks on the house. We'll let you know when you have to start paying but to the best of my recollection even the old timers here are still enjoying good times on my tab. Not the best way to get wealthy but what the hell... Help yourself:

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  11. thanks, so nice of you.

    This is the story of ES meeting resistance just below 1500 and squeeze after, also shows that there is not much interest at the current levels (it's VB below price)

    http://my.jetscreenshot.com/11987/20130317-kytc-250kb

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  12. The infuriating part is bond holders and hedge funds get bailed out while depositors get shafted. Even the Russian gangsters end up ahead considering the taxation they would have paid. Regular people who thought their money was safe have to bear the burden because they are seen and have always been seen by the elite as tools of the central apparatus to be told what to do and especially not to be trusted with their own money.

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  13. Blue made a good point on twitter that this weeks rally in pound may have been a sign that someone knew something ahead of time. Looks like UK depositers are being protected.
    Score another one for technical analysis over fundamental

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  14. Excellent chart. One small quibble about the bell curve is that representation is the idealized case. For dynamic systems like the markets the hump is skewed one way or the other. Skewed to the right and we are in the land of fuzzy kittens, as Zim would say. Skewd to the left (as always really seems to be case) and we are in more trouble than most people realize.

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  15. Excellent post! Just incredible how far things can deviate from the mean. Then again, when everyone moves to the same side of the boat, it's not suprising at all that it capsizes. ;-)

    Some links on the latest I've seen on the Cyprus issue - something else I find just incredible, and when looking at the comments, I see I'm not alone in that reaction (not to mention the articles I've linked to that express an equal degree of astonishment.

    The Botching of the Cyprus Bailout: Worse Than Lehman Brothers

    Cyprus' savers bear brunt of unprecedented bailout


    The Cyprus bail-out Unfair, short-sighted and self-defeating


    And someone may be backtracking - it's still not a done deal.
    Cyprus bailout: Parliament postpones debate


    .

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  16. I wondered about that, Greenface, but sterling only gained a couple of cents on the euro through last week, and actually fell on Friday. And the euro gained on the dollar towards the end of the week.

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  17. The rally started on Tuesday

    Darkest Knight has been tracking GBPUSD.

    EURGBP made a beautiful impulse down, best FX wave in a while. Now its retracing but I'm not sure how much it go with this new news

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  18. Certainly this could be a black swan event, however I'm not sure this does it. The vote Monday I think will reject this from pressure by the Russians who have enormous influence. I am short natural gas which may not get affected by any market drop, but if the Vix spikes, I'll be all over Xiv.

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  19. Thank HighRev. I read Ma href="http://highrevsopenhouse.blogspot.ca/2013/03/has-ndx-topped-already-heres-objective.html">your excellent post on Saturday as well and was planning on leaving a comment there. But moments later this $SPX:$VIX topic suddenly popped up out of nowhere like a deer at the side of the road and it immediately stole my focus away, lol. Sorry 'bout that bro. Your study of the $NDX pretty much justified my favorite question of the past few weeks, a question I asked on this chart. [Damn I think that's a funny question when asked like that, especially when you see it posted in reply to someone else's lengthy but perhaps confusing comment. Cracks me up every time.]


    I'm totally convinced that no matter how the Cyprus bank holiday comes out of the wash the effect on the entire Euro banking sector is going to be negative. The abundantly clear evidence this event provides is that the banking mafia won't hesitate to confiscate wealth right out of the pockets of everyday citizens in order to save their own asses. That's the bottom line here. They won't hesitate to steal the life savings of old people, young people, desperate people, sick people... they don't care. And those savings had previously been stripped of 30% of their value by being taxed to begin with. Are you kiddin' me? First they steal 30% (at least) of people's hard earned wages at the factor in the form of taxes, and then they commence to steal more of it once it's safely tucked away in one of their banks? Those kind of bankers deserve to crumble into dust.


    Anyway bud, it's a busy day for me so I gotta run. But thanks for dropping in, your comments and thoughts are always so welcome. By the way, I see you made it to the newspapers. Way to go bro!

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  20. "Score another one for technical analysis over fundamental"


    Always.

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  21. I'm absolutely convinced that the decision to steal 10% from depositors' life savings has opened up every single pair of eyes in Europe to the fact that the banking mafia will indeed rob the citizenry blind when it suits their purpose. I fully expect that this will ignite a run on European banks but a run which begins with just a trickle on Monday but that will grow in momentum slowly over the next calendar year. It was a bad, bad move on their part, I don't care how small and "unimportant" Cyprus might seem through the bankers' eyes. If this was a trial run just to see how the depositors react, they're going to get their answer from Cypriots in no uncertain terms.

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  22. ROFLMAO

    Now that's funny!

    Hey, by the way, if you post that chart over on my blog, I'll match it with another.

    .

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  23. Totally off topic... I just wanted to share something I accidentally discovered this morning that I think is just too funny. Last night Georges St. Pierre defended his title as welterweight champion of the UFC against Nick Diaz, the mouthiest man who ever competed in combat sports. I saw an article written in French and had to have Google translate it. One paragraph came out like this:

    "It was around midnight that Diaz appeared, well fed booed amateurs. After that, it was the turn of local hero George St-Pierre, focused as ever. From the first moments of the fight, St-Pierre brought Diaz to the carpet and was able to easily control her by hitting her several times."


    I'm not sure Diaz would like being referred to as a "her". God damn that's funny.

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  24. Outright capital flight out of Europe is a distinct possibility, with the "better safe than sorry" motivation dominating decision making. That would crush the banks and the EU financial system in general. A quick update from our friends at ZH: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-17/fx-market-opens-eur-hammered-chf-bid-sp-open-30pts

    I'm more inclined to think that we ultimately end up with nationalizations with everything from outright default on the banks' bondholders to a zeroing of common. The banks get equally crushed, well, let's just say the private equity side of the business gets zeroed. The depositors keep what belongs to them . . . well, up to the insured level anyway. Depositors have the other side outnumbered. When push comes to shove.

    And that would also go a very long way towards clearing the bad debt out of the system.

    In essence it'd be a partial "reset".

    That's what's going through my mind. Either way it's very bad for financials I would think.

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  25. Yes the [2] is definitely over.
    May have to downgrade it a degree, but third wave down has indeed commenced.

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  26. "What is worse, however, is the painful demonstration of the absolutely and completely arbitrary decision-making process out of Europe. Sure: the ECB and the European Commission may decide to fully unwind the deposit confiscation scheme before all is said and done, but the genie is now out of the bottle, and it is very clear that in the European Disunion, a few unelected oligarchs will now determine until such time as the Eurozone finally implodes, just whose wealth and deposits are ripe for the taking. That not even Germany can make a decision and stick with it is just icing on the cake of the European Titanic."

    I couldn't agree more.

    And with regards to the law of unintended consequences?

    "Finally, we can only hope that the next European (in whatever Monetary Union or Disunion format it is then) winter, is mild. Because Gazpromia may just decide to hike gas costs by 5%... or 6.75%.... or 9.9%.... or 99.9%.... Who knows? After all, Gazpromia Russia - which just happens to be Europe primary external source of crude and gas, has a green light to make up its own rules on the fly."

    All from the same article: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-17/europe-scrambling-last-minute-revision-cyprus-deposit-confiscation-plan

    So, once the market sell-off (a big 1.5% intraday "scare") and they come out and say that "no, the deal was unfair and is now off", will the market ramp? Perhaps not.



    "The genie is now out of the bottle."


    Funny how these kinds of things happen right at all time sentiment extremes. ;-)


    .

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  27. Ouch the yen pairs. THEY DID THAT ON PURPOSE.


    j/k of course. But it's unreal that it's like the YEN is looking like a safe haven/reserve or something all of a sudden. That's some wild stuff. What does THAT say about the state of things.

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  28. Ring the requiem bell!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9MRbek0JXk&sns=em

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  29. Oooh nice charts AR. Nice gaps on risk pairs. I expect them to get filled and then I will slowly start some shorts.

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  30. Thanks AR. Great chart.


    There was a great deal of index call option buying last Thursday. I was joking that now index options are used as leveraged long instead of protection for longs. Now the buyers must be wondering where Draghi is.

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  31. I think this is one of the most significant info for me.

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    ReplyDelete
  32. Dow Jones] The Cyprus bailout deal will trigger fresh volatility across
    financial markets and will spark fears of a run on deposits in the euro zone but
    the overall impact should be contained, according to a note to clients from
    Goldman Sachs. "An increase in financial asset volatility is surely possible,
    particularly as the measures will be voted in the Cypriot Parliament probably on
    Monday, and while negotiations leading to a government in Italy get underway. In
    our view, assuming the package is passed, the direct ramifications from Cyprus
    will likely be contained." The EUR/USD at 1.2902 from 1.3076 late Friday in New
    York. (enda.curran@dowjones.com)



    Famous last words.... Cyprus will be contained... yes sure it will...

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  33. Full credit goes to Scottick--fluffy kitten land is of his coinage!

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  34. USDJPY might be in a little (ii) of a iii of an extended fifth. Maybe back to 94ish. Then 102 target.

    The yen will never be a safe haven again. But every time it strengthens a bit that'll be the news headlines for sure.

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  35. Hey AR, excellent comments about Cyprus AND the market:VIX ratio.

    It is truly shocking that the banks won't take a hair cut on bonds, but the common peeps with savings take the hit?! Surely they are asking for a run on the banks. Unbelievable. They will truly stop at nothing in their quest to impoverish everyone and save themselves.

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  36. Right-o ... and the subprime issues were "well-contained" at first.

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  37. Interesting ... it did happen right at the peak on AR's chart.

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  38. Yep, no doubt who's running the show ... bond holders would be, the banks!

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  39. "So, once the market sell-off (a big 1.5% intraday "scare") and they come
    out and say that "no, the deal was unfair and is now off", will the
    market ramp
    "


    I don't think so bro. The bankers have gone a bridge too far. I think they made an incredibly stupid blunder here in that even if this is only a 'trial run' which they perped on tiny Cyprus simply because Cyprus is so small and 'unimportant' (in their eyes), they have thrown off the veil and have exposed to the entire world what thieving monsters they really are. In my humble opinion this mistake is irreversible. That was one giant bell that can never be unrung. I strongly suspect that money will start to flow out of European banks of every color. I'm not saying it happens overnight or that there will be runs on every bank in Europe, but I certainly don't see any human being of sound mind leaving as much as a penny in a Cypriot bank anymore. In fact it's apparently too late for those poor folks, they're going to get that haircut no matter what. So one might argue "well they've already stolen 7% of what little savings I had so I might as well just keep my money where it is and take the hit."



    I'll tell ya what though... if I was a Cypriot or a Brit who had placed all his savings in a Cypriot bank I'd be so pissed right about now that I'd take that hit but I'd still take every penny out of my account as my own little gesture to do what I can to collapse that bank. It wouldn't be that I was angry at the bank, but angry at the oligarchs who authorized the theft. I'd want to bring them down and the best way to do that would be to collapse the Cyprus banking system right in their god damned faces.

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  40. I think it was a 'trial run' Greg, possibly because Cyprus is so small an unimportant in the opinion of the bankers. And partially because a lot of hot Russian money would skimmed in the process. I think the bankers thought that the rest of the world wouldn't really care very much about this event. But that's only because bankers are stupid. Of course we care. Of course we consider the Cypriot people as just as important as human beings as anybody else. Of course we can sympathize with them and can easily, very easily, envision ourselves in their shoes. They've shot themselves right in the face with that blunder. Oh man... not even the glorious and omnipotent stupid greedy f'king bankers can unring that bell.

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  41. Hey there George. I think that was your first comment here as well (pavve made his first comment earlier today). You probably know the drill by now. Newcomers drink for free, so get busy :-)

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  42. 12 hours later. How amazing is that? Probably not amazing at all.

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  43. http://youtu.be/eyCpidT53nY



    i can only dream that I saw this in 1998

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  44. $NYUD (advancing volume minus declining volume) is definitely saying "sell the rip". When used in a 5 minute chart this indicator is very good at "setting the stage for the balance of the day". Whatever $NYUD does in the first hour or 90 minutes is very likely what it is going to do over the rest of the day. It is normally very reluctant to reverse direction throughout one trading day. That can happen but it's quite rare. Today I don't think there's a chance in hell it's going to end up going higher.

    So any bounce, such as that which we're seeing in the futures is bogus... it's an unloading party. Please note that at the instant of the opening bell on each trading day, there is one long candle which only represents a snap-back reaction from the previous session. We have to be able to ignore that one candle and focus on what happens after that. In the vast majority of cases, once the trend for the day has been established, at the end of the day there will be a huge increase in trend. IOW, as of this moment there is much more down volume than there is up volume. At the end of the day (normally, and probably today as well) there will be a gigantic burst of down volume which will be seen in a long red final candle.

    $NYUD - 5 min.

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  45. Of course who amoung us westerners even heard of Beppe Grillo back then? Much like Adriano Celentano. The Italians have their native sons who are almost like rock stars all across Europe yet we in the west have never even heard of them. Celentano is 70 years of age now and still going strong.



    You're quite right... wouldn't it have been amazing to have seen Grillo back in 1998? No wonder he's suddenly become such a powerful political force in Italia. The man knows what is going on and it appears the time has come when the citizenry is finally sick enough of the entire battle that Grillo's message is suddenly being accepted with the seriousness that it has deserved all along. It's almost stunning that he suddenly seems to wielding the balance of power.

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  46. Can you say sick?

    Get Out of Savings and Into Sovereign Bonds

    Today's mid-day news on Spanish Public Television put up an "experts" "report" on the Cyprus bailout. The message is clear: The Real "Safe Place" Is Bonds.

    I've translated the Director General of Renta 4, Jesús Sánchez Quiñones' remarks (from 0:19 to 0:40 in the video clip):

    "Even though it's the banks who need resources, their creditors, the bondholders, are not going to experience losses, rather a tax is levied on, not all the banks' creditors, but on depositors such that senior bondholders will continue to recover 100% of their investment."

    Their "reassuring" marketing spin makes the EU strategy as clear as day, but I'm not sure how they're going to like business once all their customers have gone.


    -

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  47. One blunder after another. Is it any wonder the banking system over there is basically kaput now? Holy shit Batman.


    So I'm a Spanish investor. Let's say I'm an owner of bonds issued by a Spanish bank, and I was just told not to worry because as a bondholder I won't lose any equity because my bonds will be saved at the expense of the depositors whose deposits form the very assets upon which the bank even exists at all. And I'm supposed to feel "reassured" knowing that the message means there will most likely be a run on that bank and the value of my bonds will likely go to zero as a result? Yeah, that makes sense. Holy shit Batman.

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  48. Thanks for posting this--a great launching point for someone like me who's dim on Italian politics.


    @3:55 #debtorsleverage


    helluva showman!

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  49. Great article, my friend. Thanks for putting this out there!

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  50. and somehow I think the S&P is going to 1700 this year. Probably is because I just don't believe it.

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  51. I think you are probably right, that the bankers thought nobody would really care about Cyprus, I mean where is it even? But yes, the bankers I think are acting as stupid as politicians.



    Over in Trollville today (I drop in once a month) I read something from Foolsgold who said that the Germans were pissed earlier that the Russians wouldn't fund one dollar of the bail out of Cyprus, and the Russians were the ones giving all this capital to Cyprus ... helping cause the bad investments on some level. And with all those Russians using Cyprus as a tax haven, this is one way to get Russians to fund the bailout.



    Kathleen Brooks at Forex.com thought this signaled a change of the winds. Now we are getting Bail-ins instead of Bail-outs. Sounds like a mood change at central banks, eh?

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  52. I surely will enjoy it.

    Probably my first post. But I have been checking out here regularly for the last year. Just wasn't much into the market all along. So not much to say. Always enjoy your posts.

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  53. Unless the POMO stops, it'll probably hit 1800s.
    --
    It remains a nasty market.

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  54. Glad you liked it Pebble. How have you been bro? We don't see enough of you on the circuit.

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  55. $NYUD (advancing volume minus declining volume) is definitely saying "sell the rip". When used in a 5 minute chart this indicator is very good at "setting the stage for the balance of the day". Whatever $NYUD does in the first hour or 90 minutes is very likely what it is going to do over the rest of the day. It is also normally very reluctant to reverse direction throughout one session. That can happen but it's quite rare. Today I don't think there's a chance in hell it's going to end up turning back higher where up-volume surpasses down-volume. No chance.

    So any bounce such as that which we're seeing in the futures is bogus... it's an unloading party. Please note that at the instant of the opening bell on each trading day, there is one long candle which only represents a snap-back reaction from the previous session. We have to be able to ignore that one candle and focus on what happens after that. In the vast majority of cases, once the trend for the day has been established, at the end of the day there will be an acceleration in that trend. IOW, as of this moment there is much more down volume than there is up volume. At the end of the day (normally, and probably today as well) there will be a gigantic burst of down volume which will be seen in a long red final candle.
    Updating link: $NYUD - 5 min.

    EDIT: Well it's midnight now and before the market opens in the morning I though I'd take the opportunity to capture the image of what $NYUD looked like at the end of the day. This is probably the best way to display an 'exhibit' of what I was talking about. True to form, as foretold by the action in $NYUD in the first 90 minutes, we pretty much knew with certainty that there would be a huge blast of down volume into the final hour of trading... even as the market shot up is complete and utter defiance of what was really going on. UNLOADING... that's what was going on.

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  56. Yeah, it sounds like some friction is starting to spark things up a little bit over there. I hope Angela realizes it's not a particularly good idea to piss off a bunch of billionaire Russian oligarchs. I mean, it's just not prudent to be trying to steal money from the KGB that they themselves already stole from some place else. Russians are vicious S.O.B.'s. But isn't this just exactly the way things always go when the global banking mafia causes world wide crisis? Governments get into financial trouble (they were guided into it of course), the citizenry get shafted, the citizens get angry and hungry, the government officials come under pressure and realize they had better try to do things to calm down the masses, so they screw some other country. Countries start getting mad at each other and start spitting at each other. Soon they're throwing barbs at each other, and then rocks and then bullets. The banker have caused wars for centuries and today is no different. I see the winds of war starting to huff and puff just ever so slightly these days.

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  57. Good... just burning the candle at both ends between blogging on the wacky markets and launching a little hedge fund.

    Things have been so busy, I ran into some folks this morning who thought I might have moved (I then assured my wife and kids that I wouldn't have left without saying goodbye.)

    Friday will be the site's 1st anniversary... should come in around 115%. https://pebblewriter.com/performance/

    I'm very glad to see things humming here and will try to get by more often. Lots of great stuff and great people.

    Cheers

    ReplyDelete
  58. From The Guardian, December 13, 2007: Relief as Lehman Escapes Sub-Prime Fallout

    "The Wall Street bank Lehman Brothers dodged the worst of the credit crunch to achieve a 5% rise in annual profits to $4.2bn (£2.06bn), driven by tight risk control and impressive earnings from global equity
    trading. A strong performance in the first nine months offset a 12% drop in profits in the quarter to November, when fears over the sub-prime crisis returned.

    Chris O'Meara, the bank's global head of risk management, said: "Although we have not emerged unscathed from the recent market turmoil, we believe we have done a good job in managing our risks."

    An analyst at the Boston consultancy Celent, said: "For many investors, it is not necessarily about beating expectations but the lack of skeletons in the closet of fixed income. Lehman seems to have fewer skeletons."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2007/dec/14/creditcrunch.useconomy

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  59. That is just a stunningly great result brother. Congrats. I hope your clients realize what they've got there. I'm working on something myself, as we discussed in an email about a year ago. Will be talking with a lawyer tomorrow. Can you tell me if you were required to have any 'licences' in order to launch your fund? My broker tells me that in certain circumstances, depending on how I set it up I would probably need a licence. But that in other circumstances, such as in setting something up like I have proposed to them, I do not need any licenses. IOW, as far as they are concerned if I were to set up an account under my own corporation they don't care where the monies come from nor is it any of their business how the ownership of my company is set up. Did you need any licenses?

    ReplyDelete
  60. Thanks for finally talking about > "Degree of Complacency At An All-time High" < Loved it!

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  62. Based on past volume the $SPX is threatening to drop into a free-fall zone. I don't see much support until 1525-1515

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  63. not until after bernanke's speech it seems

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  64. Yeah, if you look at that chart now (via the link) we can see that price bounced right off the top of that scary little zone. And the move down to that bounce level was an 'abc' pattern so far. It could still go either way although I'm seeing all kinds of signals that the next move is more likely to be lower than higher. Market internals data and the like.

    ReplyDelete
  65. Off-topic, AR, but do you happen to know if CMG was weighted during that big run-up formerly known as P2? It certainly was one of the darlings, along with Netflix, Amazon, and a few others.

    ReplyDelete
  66. Sorry Papa I have no idea about CMG. I certainly remember when it was a hot stock though and recall IGP reporting that at the time it was worth something like $8M per retail outlet or something ridiculous like that. For the life of me I can't see why the likes of NFLX and AMZN are worth 1/5th of what they're selling for. Well NFLX might be worth 1/5th but not AMZN. What did that stock peak at? 350 times earnings or something like that?

    ReplyDelete
  67. I seem to remember him posting a "per burrito sold" breakdown too -- something like over thirty dollars per. :)

    I also remember posting that the CMG story could be spun into a great movie script -- a couple of average guys start a little Mexican restaurant, take it public, then inadvertently become beneficiaries of a huge economic stimulus effort. They're selling like a hundred dollars worth of tacos a day, but their restaurant is suddenly capitalized in the billions. Hijinks ensue.

    BTW I got curious about the weighting because I was musing about what stocks might have been targeted during that first run up and why. That's all. Thanks. :)

    ReplyDelete
  68. Test. Hi Hoser. Trying to see if this works.

    ReplyDelete
  69. So, Cyprus votes down the tax on their savings at the banks.

    Guess they weren't swayed by the bailout carrot.

    Why don't they just tax Russian deposits to raise the 6B for goodness sakes?
    Maybe because Putin is rather scary?
    Putin said this tax was very "dangerous" ... sounds like a veiled threat.


    This is all sounding like a declining social mood. With Putin, you could see him cutting off energy supplies, or starting a war. And it's easier to imagine wars being part of wave threes.

    ReplyDelete
  70. Hola amigo. Welcome. What took you so f'king long to get here? Don't even know your way to Alberta? Get a map dude, lol.


    Now... how in hell does this banning process work again? Lemee see if I can remember how to do it, lol.


    [No worries bro... you're whitelisted now. Which means Disqus has been told (by me) to leave you alone and let you post what ever you want. In other words if you attach links etc., I have told Disqus not to take it upon itself to determine whether or not your links 'might' be dangerous and send one of your comments to the spam bin or anything like that. So you're golden.]

    ReplyDelete
  71. Welcome to the Positive Blog, good sir!
    Nice to see you again.
    AR does a most excellent job banning the likes of He Who Should Not Be Named.

    This place ROCKS!

    ReplyDelete
  72. Yes, this is a very dangerous situation for sure Greg. If I was Putin (or any other Russian) and whether my money was legitimate, or crime money, doesn't matter.... if I was 'anybody' who had placed my money in 'any bank anywhere in the world', I had full trust in that bank and trusted them not to steal it. It's the principle of the matter. It's all about confidence, the one and only thing banks and the entire global financial system are founded on. They have just blown the entire concept of trustworthiness right to smithereens. The entire fiat money system is based on the same thing... nothing but confidence that it works. The incredibly arrogant and unbelievably stupid banking cabal has really, really shot themselves in the head with this whole new concept of "taxing" savings. It's confiscation, theft and nothing less. OMG they are insane. The entire banking system "should" fail now. Logically, it "should fail just by default".

    ReplyDelete
  73. Does Wanker check out your blog still?

    ReplyDelete
  74. I have no idea if he looks at it but he continuously makes reference to it, which of course is a good thing because it shows how much he respects it. If he respects anything, he will attack it and try to bring it down. The same with people, he only attacks those he respects and feels inferior to. To be honest I doubt he checks in very often because it's not entertaining for him. He can't be a nuisance here and he has no interest in any site where he can't gain attention for himself, where he can boost his low self esteem by attacking his superiors.


    He was the very first person to comment here. And he was the person who left the second, third, fourth, fifth... up to 15th comments. I'm dead serious... he left 15 or more comments in a row and every single one of them went right to the spam bin before he finally caught on. He hasn't even been able to get past the banning tools for over a year now so I have no idea how often he might have tried to leave a comment here in the past year... if at all. I doubt he as tried because he knows he'll never get through, not in a million years.

    ReplyDelete
  75. I was thinking dangerous in that Russia would retaliate. But another meaning in dangerous is what you are stating that the confidence of the entire banking system is questioned. As someone said, the next question is why not put money under the mattress instead of the bank? And then Italians, Spanish, French, they all start asking if they are next.

    A coworker is from Russia. He says that after Russia had their crisis (1999?) the people now do not trust THE RUSSIAN banks at all, so they would naturally look for safer havens, like Cyprus. So it's not just the criminals, but anyone with money apparently.

    ReplyDelete
  76. I've seen He Who Shall Not Be Named reference this blog over in Mudville, so he's clearly outside looking in. But it's so nice to never read his negative posts here. Squinting eyes to avoid anything written by him only goes so far. Not even reading anything he writes is consistent with fostering a positive mental attitude, and a tranquil mind. And as AR mentions, he is just a complete waste of energy.

    ReplyDelete
  77. Yeah, that's funny! Sovereign Bonds as safe?!

    In Japan Kyle Bass says they are pulling all stops trying to advertise for people to buy bonds because they are getting desperate. Especially since the large pension funds are net sellers due to demographics. Actually he makes a very good point that the Japanese already lost 75% in real estate, and 75% in stocks. So they think govt. bonds are the only remaining safe asset. Sadly they are mistaken. And they will surely lose another 75% there.



    With interest rates of 1%? Indeed, why not just use a mattress? Like those in Cyprus will be doing soon.
    Actually in Russia, my Russian coworker told me that during their crisis the govt. said 100 ruple notes and 50 ruble notes would no longer be honored. People had been hording cash under their mattresses in 50 and 100 ruple notes. So there was a mad scramble to convert them into 20 bills.

    ReplyDelete
  78. Mudville... LMAO. That's a new one. I wonder if anybody has ever made a list of the alternative names for that place. I admit that I'm responsible for these three. Troll central;The stinkpad;The noisy place.

    Can anybody remember some of the other names? Mudville... and what else? They're quite funny actually, and properly derogatory.

    ReplyDelete
  79. Dr. J once said there should be two threads, one called GFYC (go eff yourself commentary), and the other for useful comments. I thought that one was rather funny and appropriate.

    ReplyDelete
  80. Haha... you two are makin' me chuckle my arse off tonight.

    ReplyDelete
  81. Haha ... that one always makes me laugh. Tis like a Monty Python line ... good for repeated laughs at every remembrance! Cheers, and good night.

    ReplyDelete
  82. As someone said, the next question is why not put money under the mattress instead of the bank? And then Italians, Spanish, French, they all start asking if they are next. Yes, it's truly crazy that the bankers went down this road.


    Maybe not so crazy. I'm probably jumping three or four steps ahead with this, but with today's technology, they may have an option I don't see talked about much: Mandatory cashless economy. All electronic transactions. The public runs to cash, the TBTF banks get governments to outlaw it. And then no one can avoid whatever trimming they decide to impose.


    It would probably be great for equities, because everyone would need an iPad, right?

    ReplyDelete
  83. I remember that skit. I think it 'was' Monty Python wasn't it? I seem to remember John Cleese was in that.

    ReplyDelete
  84. Bitcoin has been a huge beneficiary already. I think the future for Bitcoin is cemented... it is going to become a huge monetary force all around the world in very short order.

    ReplyDelete
  85. Surreal times. I guess this is what a declining social mood wave is like.

    ReplyDelete
  86. http://rationalinsolvency.com/2013/03/spx032013yh.png

    ReplyDelete
  87. New post up -new highs coming
    dkdeathorglory.blogspot.com

    ReplyDelete
  88. ps can't access fireangelmaverick's site anymore- how do you get in?

    ReplyDelete
  89. I'll do what I can get you in. She has made the blog private, something that any blogger can do by dictating which email addresses will be permitted through the door (to view the blog and to participate there). Google is the gatekeeper since Google owns the Blogger franchise. She did this change very suddenly, mostly I think to stop that asshole Wagner from constantly quoting commenters there and for constantly slamming Fam herself. But she did it very quickly, at one point saying that the change would take effect in a couple of days and then the next thing we knew, only hours later the deed had been done. In her rush to get it done, it appears that she hasn't yet loaded in all the email addresses, nor has she sent the invitation out to "all of" those email addresses. Yours would be one of them. I'll go there now and let her know. Had you ever commented there before? If not, that would explain why she didn't send you a clearance.

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
  91. As this article explains, small to medium sized regional banks are finding it harder and harder to survive in this low interest rate environment. They are being forced to reach for more risk. So to me that would mean that it might make sense to short them somewhere around here. Let's look at a daily chart of KRE and see what it says. Well I'll be a monkey's uncle... it says that KRE is due for a pullback insofar that it's quite overbought on a daily basis and appears to be completing a pattern. Of course it's hard to know whether KRE would be facing just a pullback or if maybe that index ETF is facing a much darker future. In any case, KRE is definitely worth considering

    ReplyDelete
  92. Legen-dary. Thanks Amigo.
    your place still has beer though.

    ReplyDelete
  93. De nada compañero. Sí, la cerveza es siempre gratis.

    ReplyDelete
  94. currency correlations (another attempt)

    $XAD (AUD) correlation with $SPX seems to have broken down

    best positive correlations I could find were FXS (SEK) and BZF (BRL)
    best negative correlations I could find were $XBP (GBP) & $XJY (JPY)

    ... unless I made a mistake somewhere. wouldn't be the first time.

    BTW, AR: I didn't get an invite from FAM/200MA before they went private.

    ReplyDelete
  95. AR long time follower but post sparingly. Any chance you can swing me an invite to the fireanglemaverick blog since it went private. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  96. After the close I was able to see what $NYSI did today and as far as I'm concerned it has issued a very bearish signal by turning lower and putting in a new lower high in the process. This is in seriously negative divergence with the entire NYSE which has put in a new 'higher' high. I realize it's barely visible but that new red brick printed today is the signal, along with what the indicators are all doing. Keep in mind that since $NYSI is a derivative of the McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) it is typically delayed by a day or two. This signal is perfect.

    $NYSI Daily

    ReplyDelete
  97. I'll see what I can do bud. No worries, you have a good rep.

    ReplyDelete
  98. "Bitcoin is the beginning of something great: a currency without government, something necessary and imperative."

    Bitcoin appreciates despite ECB disapproval http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-18/meanwhile-electronic-currency-land-or-bitcoin-1-0-ecb

    Bitcoin surges after Cyprus bank seizure http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-20/spain-bitcoin-run-has-started



    BitcoinCharts.com

    ReplyDelete
  99. Hi dillzs. You'd probably be doing yourself a favor if you would hook yourself up with a nice recognizable avatar for the future, instead of that "assface" I have set as the default here for those people who don't have one, lol.

    You're quite right, you're not a very noisy person. But I can click on your name to see your past history of commenting and you're one cool classy guy. Since you have never posted a comment at Fam's blog she won't have your email address and she would need that. But since she doesn't know you she also wouldn't have a clue what you're like unless she came over here and clicked on your name so she could see for herself. That's about all I can do for now. We'll see what she comes back with.


    The reason she went private is because she's weeding out the trolls as you no doubt surmised. I do the same thing here of course but I just haven't gone private obviously. The trolls over at Mudville just wouldn't stop bashing her and her new (and very successful) blog. In fact some of them were even going to the extent of going to her blog and copying comments, then pasting them over at the asylum for the purposes of further mocking. Wagner at his finest. So now he no longer has that privilege. So she's pretty gun shy but I'll pass on the request for sure.

    ReplyDelete
  100. for those Europeans looking to keep their savings in their mattresses http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/03/spanish-firm-markets-mattress-with.html

    ReplyDelete
  101. Oh my. Maybe they are three steps ahead of us. And the TBTF banks run the Fed and the government. That's rather scary.

    ReplyDelete
  102. USDJPY could be ready to launch in a 3 of 3 of that possible extended fifth of minor 3.
    First target 102, then 107.

    ReplyDelete
  103. SJ you punk, you're a fraud

    ReplyDelete
  104. this blog is worse than FAM's, send in the trolls

    ReplyDelete
  105. wow, you just made me register with discus.

    ReplyDelete
  106. How did you get in here, Wags?
    Go back to Trollsville, please.

    ReplyDelete
  107. Greg please don't even respond to those folks. I'll deal with them.

    ReplyDelete
  108. Speak softly and carry a big troll gun.

    Love it.

    ReplyDelete
  109. Well done good sir, we all appreciate your stance on the trolls and keeping your pub a positive environment. Keep them under their bridges. And roger, I will no longer respond to them.

    ReplyDelete
  110. Awesome. So what were we talking about? lol

    ReplyDelete
  111. Just like swatting flies Zim. It's a bit of an annoyance but thankfully it happens here very, very seldom. The last time I had to deal with a true troll was at least 7 or 9 months ago, something like that. You probably didn't notice but this latest troll made his comment under "Guest" because I have the settings so loose that anybody can comment here. I could tighten up with some restrictions or even go private like Fam did but I want this place to be wide open to 'everybody'. People who abuse that welcoming philosophy just get tossed out of the pub that's all. Here, have a beer, lol.

    ReplyDelete
  112. Just like swatting flies Zim. It's a bit of an annoyance but thankfully it happens here very, very seldom. The last time I had to deal with a true troll was at least 7 or 9 months ago, something like that. You probably didn't notice but this latest troll made his comment under "Guest" because I have the settings so loose that anybody can comment here. I could tighten up with some restrictions or even go private like Fam did but I want this place to be wide open to 'everybody'. People who abuse that welcoming philosophy just get tossed out of the pub that's all. Here, have a beer, lol.


    EDIT: The images aren't showing up today for some reason.

    ReplyDelete
  113. Just
    like swatting flies Zim. It's a bit of an annoyance but thankfully it happens here very, very seldom. The last time I had to deal with a true troll was at least 7 or 9 months ago, something like that. You probably didn't notice but this latest troll made his comment under "Guest" because I have the settings so loose that anybody can comment here. I could tighten up with some restrictions or even go private like Fam did but I want this place to be wide open to 'everybody'. People who abuse that welcoming philosophy just get tossed out of the pub that's all. Here, have a beer, lol.

    ReplyDelete
  114. Yesterday I posted this chart of the NYSE Summation Index ($NYSI)
    because it showed a rather ominous sell signal. No guarantees of course
    but since it has been a reliable signal in the past why should I doubt
    it now? It's always so damned dicey trying to pinpoint tops like this
    when the bankers are determined not to let the market drop, but that's
    why I use NYSI as 'one of' my tools... it's delayed as it is because
    it's a derivative of NYMO, and then on top of that I apply a Renko to it
    to smooth out the noise even further. That's why this particular
    configuration is so reliable. So we'll see obviously but in my world
    this is a sell signal. And with more issues falling today than rising, NYSI is just going to print lower at the end of trading today as well.

    Closer
    up

    ReplyDelete
  115. Short term I would rather be short usd/jpy. USD needs a pullback and JPY needs a breather. End of Japanese fiscal year could bring some yen strength.

    ReplyDelete
  116. experimenting with Renko and ichimoku

    Renko 5 pts/brick has broken below Senkou Span A and failed its backtest on the attempt to get out of the cloud
    and has fallen to the bottom of the cloud (Senkou Span B)

    Renko 11pts/brick (large enough to eliminate the red brick in the midst of the surge up) $NYA has already put in a lower high and broken down below both tenken-sen and kijun-sen (which themselves have a bearish cross)

    ReplyDelete
  117. Haha. Very nice. I had never thought of that one, Renko on an Ichimoku chart. Way to go David, that deserves more experimentation. I hope you'll keep it up and let us know if you see any advantages or benefits from it.

    ReplyDelete
  118. update on the 5 pts/brick has the price down to the bottom of the cloud (Senkou Span B)

    ReplyDelete
  119. I think we were talking about how refreshing a place your pub is!

    ReplyDelete
  120. Very nice chart ... that looks like a very high probability top signal indicator!
    And, according to DK's count yesterday, AUDUSD has probably put in enough of a 2 wave to be (nearly) complete. 1-2.

    ReplyDelete
  121. I like those clouds, and combining the two, very nice.

    ReplyDelete
  122. Hunting season is afoot....

    ReplyDelete
  123. I just came for the beer that DK promised. I do wanna let you know I hadn't commented yet but enjoy your work and have actually been reading. The other keeps me fairly busy so trying to keep focus to prevent over commenting. Great job with the post by you and Drew both :-)

    ReplyDelete
  124. Welcome 200. Yeah, it's customary around here that when somebody comments for the first time they get the first few beers on the house. After that they're free forever :-)

    So here ya go! We have a whole lot of choices around here and you might even see some brands you recognize. But here's one you probably don't... Kokanee, a great beer that's associated with British Columbia.

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
  126. Posted this over at FAM's this morning. Here's another look at th 80/10, the old Bulltart fave, this time looking not at crossovers, but the gap between the two. Might be telling us something.

    http://i.imgur.com/S12XHZc.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  127. I remember when we were really focused on his charts back in August of 2011. His 10/80 charts were weekly by the way. Back in 2011 we were really interested because the 10 week was just about to cross below the 80 week. Bulltart's contention was that if the cross-under happened the bear market had begun. And at the time he had every right to make that claim because in the past when that cross occurred a bear market 'did' ensue. But back in 2011 the Fed was fully engrossed in messing with natural market forces and had it not been for their flooding the market with cash in order to artificially drive it up, Bulltart would have been right. Maddening as hell to be honest.

    ReplyDelete
  128. Weekly? I totally forgot. Thanks. The chart still shows an interesting pattern though.

    And yeah, things went haywire for all forms of TA when intervention started.

    And not only that (while we're on the subject), I actually think EW got too popular, and might have had a role in the run-ups over the last few years. Everybody counts a five down, then slaps a fib grid on the chart, watches for an ABC to hit 61.8, then everybody shorts like crazy. And that provides algos with bear squeezin' rocket fuel, the market soars, the wave starts looking like a 5 up, and the counts get busted.

    I don't think that's solely responsible, of course. I just think it might have added to it.

    ReplyDelete
  129. Yup, without a doubt we've seen enough clear 5 wave impulses in key positions where it was just a correction that should have been a 3 wave sequence, that I really have absolutely no faith in a fiver when I see one these days. Fivers are pretty and all that, and impressive, but to come to a conclusion that it's the start of something big in that direction has proven to be a huge mistake just as often as not ever since the low of 2009. I don't really think the Fed or the market manipulators pay much attention to EWT, I think it's more a case where they are just going to drive the market higher for as long as they can regardless of what the charts look like. I could be wrong about that, but I don't really believe that they intentionally suck people in by engineering fivers just to trick people. I think that what we're seeing in the waves and wave counts is more or less just the result of manipulation that shouldn't be there and whatever happens in the waves is the natural outcome of a market that is totally f'ked up.

    ReplyDelete
  130. Whatever it is that we're looking at in the S&P, it sure doesn't look impulsive to the upside. Nor to the downside for that matter which probably suggests that we're in a 4th wave of some kind. Mind you, topping patterns are a process while bottoms are usually an 'event'. So who knows? But if it rolls lower with any energy at all I'd bet Chartrambler's last dollar that it drops through that freefall zone in one hell of a hurry. Destination 1518 or so.
    $SPX 15 min.

    ReplyDelete
  131. Fitch Ratings to disabuse UK of their complacency http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2297685/Another-blow-Osborne-ratings-agency-puts-UKs-AAA-credit-score-review-downgrade-days-austerity-budget.html

    latest budget reveals UK in worse position than previously thought https://ir.citi.com/S98uoAgsvLj1POjQ1rQxHIMwFfnlgSL2yE6tiV0a9jS1Jg3gkLiRTw%3D%3D

    Budget 2013: Six Scary Graphs http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/03/budget-2013-some-scary-graphs/

    from the "Office for Budget Responsibility". as if any government could ever be responsible when expropriating and spending other people's money. the only responsible path is to recognize that all wealth and all improvements in living standards depends upon the private sector and NOT the government. and thus to shrink government budgets and reduce the oppressive tax burdens that drain the productive private sector in favor of the corrupt government sector.

    expansive government is always harmful. restricting and reducing government power is always the solution.

    but unfortunately some lessons have to learned again and again and again.

    "they've made the biggest financial mess that any government's ever made in this country for a very long time, and Socialist governments traditionally do make a financial mess. They always run out of other people's money. It's quite a characteristic of them. They then start to nationalise everything, and people just do not like more and more nationalisation, and they're now trying to control everything by other means. They're progressively reducing the choice available to ordinary people." http://www.margaretthatcher.org/speeches/displaydocument.asp?docid=102953

    "I would call it classical liberalism, a belief in people running their own lives, rather than government running it for them." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNRO82QMJwQ

    government leaning too far left is always the problem.
    and "right-wing" reform is always the proper and moral solution.

    ReplyDelete
  132. unfortunately, the hashtag doesn't seem to be catching on yet. https://twitter.com/search/realtime?q=%23endcoercion&src=typd

    ReplyDelete
  133. "freedom's just another word for no one left to screw"
    good one - depositors faced with outright confiscation are one group that can't and won't kick that can't kick the can down the road. The whole pyramid scheme is coming crashing down and it's because they're kneecapping the bottom row.

    ReplyDelete
  134. The problem with elliott wave (and all chart pattern systems) is that it's subjective. At least with chart patterns you might be able to establish enough consensus to determine odds, but good luck with wave counting.

    As such there has always got to be both a bull count and bear count. If you see three waves then you have to have both a - b - c and 1 - 2 -3 on the table. If you count five waves then you must have an alternative somewhere in the back of your head that the 2 could be a B and the 4 a four of C.

    This is what we learned the hard way from July 2011 and May 2012. Go back and look at the charts. The supposed third waves in both cases only contained three waves. (the key I believe is in the fourth wave I think this most chaotic wave holds the truth to the the true natureof the entire move but I'm still working on it).

    That's just the nature of the beast. Undoubtedly, CB manipulation is pushing the markets in unnatural directions, but Elliott Wave never needed much help in being wrong. In the late 80s and again in 1995 Prechter counted the supercycle waves complete and was spectacularly wrong both times. Even R N Elliott got many things wrong (despite what you may see from some of the fundamentalists who have shown up lately on Troll Central) and they're there to see in his writings

    ReplyDelete
  135. complacency watch

    illusions of safety are being shattered

    in Cyprus, limits on deposit withdrawals http://rt.com/business/cyprus-bailout-withdrawal-banks-756/

    and ... Is Italy the next Cyprus? http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/03/german-economist-proposes-one-time.html

    Spain is going to the mattresses http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/03/spanish-firm-markets-mattress-with.html

    "Get Your Money Out of Spain While You’ve Still Got a Chance" http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/#mCivopEBCSjiuXRW.99

    "No, France is Not Bankrupt" http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/03/le-monde-headline-no-france-is-not.html

    ... and Japan is becoming desperate http://media.chicagobooth.edu/mediasite/Viewer/?peid=f15d95d054e8442ab0cc1c60321383101d

    ... but Japan officials still hope for benefits from devaluation http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-positive-impact-of-declining-yen.html

    When do we admit this is a solvency crisis? http://www.mpettis.com/2013/03/21/when-do-we-call-it-a-solvency-crisis/

    ... and rising interest rates would cause it all to unravel http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2013/03/what-could-cause-interest-rates-to-rise.html

    ReplyDelete
  136. Any ideas as to why the data in the graphic
    posted below has not made its way into the mainstream financial press?
    Especially when we're talking about confiscation of depositor funds?

    Here's a link to more on the subject (but still no mention of who the big creditors are).
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-23/why-cyprus-matters-and-ecb-knows-it

    ReplyDelete
  137. Hi. For some reason I am getting permission denied to fireangelmaverick.com...... AR, you having similar issues?

    ReplyDelete
  138. Highrev, I'm so skeptical of zerohedge but they do produce interesting material

    ReplyDelete
  139. Nice ... thanks!
    Da Bankers!

    ReplyDelete
  140. Hey HR. My apologies that I wasn't around today to see your email until 10:20 p.m. Do you still want me to delete the comment?

    ReplyDelete
  141. No, she went private with her blog. The way it works now is that the general public cannot see the blog and therefore they can't troll it nor bash her and her friends there with comments. But you're a known good guy so I'll contact her and get you in. I can see your email, the email you use to post here. So I assume that's the email you use for any Blogger blog? If so I'll have to pass it on to her, privately of course. Do I have your permission to do that?

    ReplyDelete
  142. If any readers out there are having trouble getting in to Fireanglemaverick's blog let me know and I'll try to help get you hooked up there. Trolls need not apply.

    ReplyDelete
  143. Exactly. The arrogance is just freaking off the charts. For the first time in my life I'm pulling for Putin, big time. Show me some god damned wrath Vladimir. Please!

    This is not a man to f'k around with on any front. But to steal money from him or his countrymen? The word "suicide" comes to mind.

    ReplyDelete
  144. Exactly. The arrogance is just freaking off the charts. For the first time in my life I'm pulling for Putin, big time. Show me some god damned wrath Vladimir. Please!

    This is not a man to f'k around with in any way. But to steal money from him or his countrymen? The word "suicide" comes to mind.

    ReplyDelete
  145. Please do delete it when you get a chance. We can then leave things with this comment. Many thanks.

    Any ideas as to why the data in this graph I've put together has not
    made its way into the mainstream financial press?

    https://securecdn.disqus.com/uploads/mediaembed/images/459/5920/original.jpg
    Especially when we're talking about confiscation of depositor funds?

    Here's a link to more on the subject (but still no mention of who the big creditors are).
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-23/why-cyprus-matters-and-ecb-knows-i

    ReplyDelete
  146. SS76, if there every was a synonym for permabear, it's ZeroHedge! ;-)

    But there's a reason for that: they base their opinions on fundamental and macroeconomic data, somewhat similar to Kyle Bass in the sense that they're "positioned" for longer term moves based on longer term decision making criteria. My only beef with ZH is when they stay ubber bearish at lows - I got banned right at the 2011 lows (they bottom ticked on that one) for giving them heat on that . . . they talk about "fight club" mentality, but they couldn't take it from me when I was calling for a bottom and they we're screaming fire in a crowded theater.

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  147. Haha... you're a rock star in my opinion for getting banned from ZH. Who else has had that honour? I got flak from Durden one time for a comment I made but needless to say I fired right back at him. But I think my reply made a good enough argument that he isn't the only person in the world entitled to an opinion that he dropped it. I'm not sure if I came close to being evicted or not.

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  148. I would greatly appreciate you forwarding my email to FireAngel. Thx

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  149. Hi mancjt. Fam's criteria will most likely be that a person has at least some comment history so that she can determine whether or not that person is likely to troll a site. You have very little commenting history but you joined Discus 4 years ago and have no history at all of bad stuff. So I'd imagine you'll be in like flint. Email sent to Fam.

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  150. lol

    Yeah, there were a few of us that got banned - anyone who had anything positive at all to post. 'Twas a shame since there were some good posters that I've never seen anywhere since. Oh well.



    What's important though is that we've still got that ever dependable place we call ZH where we can always count on being kept up on all the uber bearish news, facts and figures fit for human consumption - which shouldn't be undervalued, what with the likes of the clown networks, as Permabear is found of calling them, Wall Street shills, et al. perpetually throwing an endless supply of bullishness (or omision of anything that isn't) in our faces, ZH might almost be better thought as being a public service!

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  151. A public service or at least one form of antidote to MSNBC. Either way I think we've definitely seen some things of ZH that we probably would have never seen anywhere else, such as those incredible Nanex charts.

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  152. I'd like to add that to my blogs I frequent. Merci bonne monsieur.

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  153. As he said, that tax is "irresponsible, unprofessional, and .... DANGEROUS." Yikes.

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  154. Yes, that pullback fit in quite nicely. Now I think at 94 it could be done correcting (soon), and ready soon to go to 102.

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  155. I'm remembering how all the central banks worked together in 2008-2009 during the crisis.
    And how the mood has changed now! What a difference 4 years makes.


    Now we have central banks trying to help their country survive. And thumbing their noses at the others.

    Japan -- out for themselves. Korea is mad at them for devaluing currency and making Japanese cars cheaper than Korean.

    Germany -- out for themselves.
    Russia -- angered by this EU tax.
    Cyprus -- not playing along with the confiscation scheme.


    And now as Pains Gains and Capital mentioned today, all those 15 trillion of toxic debts on the balance sheet of the central banks makes Cyprus start confiscating bank deposits!! We truly are worse off today than before. It just isn't recognized by a critical mass of people yet.

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  156. It's a done deal Greg. You'll be getting an invitation email from Fam via Google.

    ReplyDelete
  157. Thanks buddy!

    ReplyDelete
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  159. Pretty amazing alright, and we can't accuse them for a lack of guidance either.

    I think the USD should benefit the most short term though (which could also help US stocks as a by product).

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  160. There is one permabear left..and thats me.

    The irony is I am tending to post up charts with sp'2500 targets. I guess if I did that on ZH I'd get the big ban hammer too.

    -
    How could they ban you, and not 'milliondollarbonus?' Arguably the worse troll I've ever seen on a large site. Maybe its just one of the Tylers stirring the pot.

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  161. Yes, the USD might be finally ready for lift-off.
    The markets, I have no clue what they will do. Have no feel for that whatsoever. But the dollar ... it's ready to rumble.

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  162. Thanks good sire. My email is swamped with advertisements. like 50 per day. I may have missed it or my wife threw it out in the daily scramble to weed out the junk email.

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  163. USDJPY: Has recovered all the loss during the last wave of alleged SAFE HAVEN BUYING BY EUROPEANS. What a joke! Safe haven. Cyprus is safer than Japan. Greece is safer. Europe is far safer.

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  164. EWI has an article in tonight's email about how the FED WAS established in 1914 with one main goal to keep credit away from speculative uses, and towards productive uses. Now they are focused completely on speculative excesses. Which will not end well.


    One way it will not end well is that currencies will take a beating for those governments that screw up the most. Japan comes to mind. So there WILL BE CONSEQUENCES. I'm sure they do not believe there will be any.

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  165. AR, thanks for the kind words and you can share email.

    ReplyDelete
  166. Hahaha, honestly when I read zh it's almost unbelievable the information they post and the analysis they do. Good thing about it is it keeps you honest

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  167. You should have your invite now.

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  168. US 10 year bonds look are perking up ... they would be representing the risk-off vote.
    http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=d1


    As would be AUDUSD which looks like it could be breaking down, and with a potentially completed 2 count (as per DK)

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  169. It's just crazy isn't it Greggor, but the bond markets have been perking up and as ZH constantly points out, the equities markets "just don't care". Well one of these days they're going to care big time. The only reason the markets are up at all is because of the f'king Fed. Not telling you anything you don't already know, just ranting about it.

    SJ posted this interesting link just moments ago on Fam's site. What do you make of this? If true, holy shit Batman.
    http://beforeitsnews.com/international/2013/03/900-million-says-euro-crashes-in-2-weeks-put-trade-rocks-london-options-market-2454160.html

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  170. Aussie:Yen futures look like they want to tank big time tonight.

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  171. It's worth a rant alright. Unbelievable, the proppage they managed!


    That huge put bet on the euro IS very interesting. Two weeks too. It IS in some part of a clear 3rd wave down anyway. Maybe there is a Spanish shoe about to drop (if Spanish yields spiked next that would freak out lots of Euro holders).

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  172. Ah, that there is the holy grail trade, and it does look toppy. Wonder if Darkestknight has an update on that count? ... thought last I read it needed a bit more of a five wave to finish the entire multi-year count. But maybe it's been modified recently.

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  175. Done! You should get your invite as soon as she wakes up and sees my message in her email.

    ReplyDelete
  176. I read that Bitcoin has been dealing with attacks almost since day one and that they have been able to deal with all of them so far. I can understand it too because the global banking mafia is royally pissed about it because they absolutely have no control over it. All the more reason to accept that it's the real deal.



    I have absolutely no doubt now, after seeing what happened in Cyprus, that to people who are about to get a haircut have their bank accounts robbed by the very banks they're safely deposited in, that Bitcoin will now look like just about the safest place a person could ever put their money. Gold and silver of course are the real, real deal, but as long as those markets are suppressed and Bitcoin "can't be suppressed", I'm all for Bitcoin. I'm buying them as we speak. There will never be more than 21,000,000 Bitcoins in existence. There are currently almost 11 million I believe but it's total market cap surpassed $1B this weekend. I have seen estimates of its eventual value to be $10K within a year to $1M in ten years. I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised... as long as it survives. Two key points here... there is a limit to how many Bitcoins will ever be in existence, and secondly, all fiat currencies except the USD seem destined to collapse. That's a recipe for success for Bitcoin in my opinion. I love the damned thing and have basically said f'k it to the stock markets for now. They're just too insanely freaking dangerous. I'll bet bitcoins are worth over $1k before 2013 is over. I'm not going nuts with it but I'm sure as hell buying them.

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  177. Thanks AR. It will be nice to get back to some real technical discussions that are more than 140 characters

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  178. Thanks for responding AR. I keep forgetting about the deflation factor with the yen, so thank you for that key point. I have to ponder that one for awhile ... not sure how it fits in, buy you may be right. I certainly do think the deflation scenario is more powerful than central banks printing. The timing of it all is the hard part to sort out, eh?



    And that chart could certainly start a wave 4 anytime, but one point I keep eyeing is that new high a few weeks ago. If not for that new high (96) I thought wave 3 looked like it could have been a complete count at 94ish with a regular old wave 5 completing minor 3. But then we got this extra wave to 96ish, and an extended fifth wave seems possible (with that high being (i) of i-ii, (i)-(ii). We'll see if support holds and we get another new high, or go down from here. Binary moment.



    And I agree, the printing is no match for deflation. But I wonder if capital flight and currency flight might be a better match? Because I suppose the proper order would be a strengthening (deflation spike) and then a crash as capital flows out of the problem country's currency. I still suspect a worldwide shifting of a view of the yen from safe-haven to debt crisis is behind the yen's loss of 25% -- more than fears of Abe's printing (the storyline in the media). Could the strength of the yen in the last few years already been due to deflation? And maybe now it's time for the capital flight stage? I just don't know. I guess we will find out as this thing unfolds.

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  179. I thought this summary of European mess according to Carl Weinberg was insightful and very easy to understand in an interview in Barron's today. Here are the snippets on Europe:



    "The problem is that Europe's banking system is under-capitalized ... they are bust by normal accounting standards. They are worried about recognized and still-to-be recognized losses on their books. And at the same time, they are facing a squeeze from higher capital adequacy requirements under the Basel III agreement. So they are looking to build up their capital base. They can't borrow or raise capital from private equity sources, so their only option is to withdraw assets from risk, which means CALLING IN LOANS, ant that's what we are seeing in Europe right now. This is not a theory anymore. Two years ago, the idea that banks in Europe would fail was a theory: NOW IT IS AN OBSERVATION. When I see credit contracting, I cannot make up an economic story that ends nicely. Europe is experiencing a monetary convulsion caused by a retraction of credit by a busted banking system, and there is no policy in place to remedy the problems in the banking system."


    "The credit crunch will get worse, and as that happens, then capital adequacy of banks will be restored. But the problem is that it will be difficult to survive the transition from under-capitalized to appropriately capitalized. In the US in 2008 and 2009 we had TARP, a public policy to ensure that no bank would be under-capitalized. We need a funded euro TARP, and WE DON'T HAVE THAT IN SIGHT. So the problems will have to work themselves out, and that will take much longer."


    "This is an event in Europe much more akin to a depression than to any economic downturn we have ever seen in our lifetime. A business cycle has inhererent forces that bring about recovery. A depression doesn't. It requires a policy response to end it. It is very dire. I'm probably at the bearish end of the specturm on Europe. Everyone wants to be bullish, and people are looking at the stock market. "Ding-dong the witch is dead," everyone says. But credit continues to contract, and therefore the top-line growth of profits that people are expecting as they price stocks will not materialize."


    Banks calling in loans sounds like deflation to me.

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  180. You're welcome buddy. Yeah Twitter is actually pretty freakin' cool it's a pain in the ass that the longest message we can send is 140 charac

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  181. Thanks, I might need to look into that Bitcoin, I've sort of ignored it. It's a sign of the times that being "backed by governments and central banks" used to be a confidence builder, and now it's a panic-inducer.

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  184. milliondollarbonus?

    It you're manifestly idiotic, they'll be happy to keep you around since you make the entire group you belong to look the same. ;-)

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  185. Thanks Greg. That is a nice summary.

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  186. Hahaha! I saw a mattress company had a good week, and thought of putting just your comment out there. Indeed, long mattresses and carpets.

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  187. Yen looking very perky today - not sure what's been said or done, but gained close to 100 pips.

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  188. I hadn't notice that Tom. But I think it might be a crack in the armour... a sign that Abe can't change the fact that Japan is under the thumb of the mighty deflation genie and all the money printing in the world isn't going to make up for yen that are vanishing back into the imaginary world they were created in in the first place. I think it's classic deflation playing out. I believe the Yen, the US dollar and gold will all rise at the same time in the months and years ahead.

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  189. Not just yet, but maybe Like this?

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-eUZlDRjTVS0/UVkI6RQLsTI/AAAAAAAAAT8/Kgu2Vh0R0HU/s1600/USDJPYwedge.png

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  190. Nice. Gracias amigo. That's the first time you've included a link with one of your charts isn't it? Or was it the other way around... you were supplying links but not the image. In any case this is good.

    Not sure what you mean by "Not just yet" because your chart suggests that maybe the Yen continues to outpace the dollar for a while yet, and I have no argument with that at all. Entirely possible my friend. But my assertion is that no matter what changes might occur in the relationship between the two, they should probably both become stronger in the future relative to all the others.

    In a discussion below with Greg I had included these two charts, both of which give me the impression that the Yen is getting very toppy here, at least on the weekly scale. My guess is that it's probably about to enter a choppy 4th wave of some sort, perhaps in a way that plays into the 'choppiness' you envision over the next year in your chart above.

    Anyway, thanks buddy. It's always nice when you drop in. This one's on me :-)

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