This will just be a short post to alert my friends and followers to the fact that the market is now in a range where the HO is beginning to sit up and take notice. Yesterday, despite the markets around the world taking a pretty hefty dump, there were still over 400 new 52 week highs attained on the NYSE, so the HO wasn't even interested yesterday.
Today it's a different story. At the present moment, with an hour to go in the trading day, there have been 33 new highs and 36 new lows recorded. The minimum for each is 85, so at present there is little likelihood the HO will issue a signal today either.
One important factor is this... the most recent HO event occurred on April 15th. In order for a second and confirming signal to be accepted, it must happen within 36 days of the first. Today is 38 days since the last signal so technically we are starting all over again. The next signal will be recorded as another "initial" signal. And if some of the better known market technicians such as Walter Murphy are correct, the market is currently in a 4th wave correction off the April low, which of course implies higher prices to come. If that's the way things turn out, then the HO, which is working perfectly well, is more than likely in sync with those opinions.
But stay tuned... we're on the case and will report the next HO event when it occurs.
Stay on the case...we're all watcing :)
ReplyDeleteAlberta rocks! literally rocks! morning from Paris! what exactly is Murphy's view of the current correction? if I remember correctly, he views the rally from the 2011 lows as a counter-trend bear market rally to be retraced, but does not believe this is the top because of strong breadth. Usually wave 4 are violent retracement, up to 50%, sometimes 61.8%, and up to 100% of wave 3. If you do have his count for wave 3 length, would be interested. Best
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Hello AH, how are things in Paris? My apologies in not getting back to you sooner but I'm just not really into blogging much these days. To be honest I've completely lost interest in the 'markets' once I realized that they no longer even remotely resemble real markets, but rather just a tool, a ficilitator for the panicked agenda of the central banks. Every single market in the world has been completely wrecked by those assholes and they've just become nothing more than boring, and horrifically dangerous playgrounds for the rich... the Central Park of the money world where so many muggings happen every day that someday soon there won't even be anybody left for the banker-thugs to steal from. Where are the cops? There are no cops.
ReplyDeleteYes, Walter Murphy is still long term bearish. But a little closer to home, he considers the current pullback as a wave 4 correction of the mid-April low. I don't subscribe to his service so I haven't had the luxury of reading his thoughts in detail, but he does Tweet the occasional comment and does offer some comments on his public blog. You can see the latest of those here.
On the topic of "how deep retracements can go", what you've described is actually a wave 2. Wave 4's are almost always the most complex waves and are usually a flat, a triangle or a combination of the two. So they don't retrace nearly as far as you suggested. In fact they can not retrace any deeper than the extent of wave 1. So for that reason they can not retrace anywhere near 100% of wave 3. But wave 4's are almost always aggravating because they are complex and we seldom ever see two of them that are the same.
All the best to you as well
Thanks for the update AR, much appreciated
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I think it has ONE LAST WAVE up to finish minor 3, and finish the extended fifth.
So, 800 pips left, enjoy!
Target of 108ish. That is 1.6 times waves 1-3, and would make v = 800 pips, and i was 600.
Maybe one last push down to 99.5-100 area, the channel line of two months, and this recent iv wave.
So get yourself some money here, and then get ready for 3 of 3 in AUDUSD!
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FYI,new HO observation by McH for May 29th. He says it needs confirmation within 30 days.
ReplyDeleteHi AR......so looks like there was a "sighting" on the 29th? Hope Alberta still rocks. This time of year, wish I were there instead of Florida.
ReplyDeleteWhy is it that the HO is more aggressive in its outcomes than the Elliott wave principle is? EW also suggests a downturn on markets, but not as strong as the HO does.
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