Just a heads up my friends. I'm seeing something potentially "very bullish" signals emerging on a whole raft of charts. I must admit that I'm a bit surprised by the recent developments because up until very recently we have been seeing some very bearish signals from... well all over the place. But it's starting to look to me like the correction might have indeed already run its course and we may be heading for new local highs. Perhaps 1450ish on the S&P 500. If that's the case, forget the old saying about "sell in May and go to hell"... it ain't gonna happen. At least not early in May.
Here's one of those very rare wave count offerings from yours truly. And for the first time ever I can commit with 100% certainty that it is correct. It is absolutely correct... insofar as that one of these two wave counts "is" right... probably maybe. I'll temper that bold statement just a bit by adding that most likely one of 'em is correct... as long as the markets goes higher or lower from here. In any case, all self doubt aside, it's sure become apparent to me that both possibilities really are becoming quite clear now. I just don't know which one it's gonna be and you have no idea how much I wish I could tell you. But I can't. Nonetheless, I honestly am somewhat comforted after today's action... finally... in that in spite of the fact that it could go either way, the pattern does seem to becoming clearer. That might sound like a contradiction but it isn't. In other words, going forward I believe we're going to be able to make the correct investment decisions and with perhaps a great deal more confidence than we've had over the past 6 weeks or so.
With both possibilities seen in the chart below being viable (at least from the EWT perspective and with nothing else taken into consideration), I'd have to say that judging by the market internals data I'm seeing, I'm going to have to lean toward the bullish outcome... the green count. Of course I reserve the right to change my mind but unless we see Monday's (April 23) low of 1358.79 get taken out, I'm going to assume we're heading higher. NYSI is certainly lending support to that conclusion. And with today's massive jump in AAPL, so is the AAPL:NDX ratio suddenly supporting higher prices... perhaps 'much' higher.
|Click here for a live and updating 'print' version (I offer the 'print' so those who are not subscribed to StockCharts can see the annotations).|
As well, the chart of the percentage of stocks above their own 50 day moving average is producing one type of signal that I promised myself that "the next time I see that signal I'm not gonna fight it... we're headed higher". So there you have it my friends, I have little option as of tonight but to go bullish unless and until 1358.79 gets taken out.
|There is a huge and unusual divergence going on between equities and the Aussie:Yen cross. This 'has to' resolve one way or the other. Click here for an updating 'print' version.|
EDIT: April 29, 2012 - I wanted to stay on the topic that I was demonstrating in the chart above, so I've put together an improved version (below) for a handful of different reasons. First of all, that's only a 15 minute chart and a lot can happen in a matter of just a couple of days. So I've expanded the duration of time shown. Secondly, I've separated the Aussie:Yen cross and now display it in a separate panel below the Russell... in the name of clarity. The turd reason I wanted to update this presentation is to more clearly show that we can see 3-wave sequences in the Russell throughout the entire duration of the chart. Some people might argue that where I see a 3-wave sequence, they see a 5 wave sequence. For those people I'd highly recommend a quick visit to this fun page. You can thank me later :-)
Fourthly and perhaps most importantly, I really want to issue a "heads up" and draw your attention to the fact that at the close of trading on Friday, equities and the Aussie:Yen cross ended the week being way, way out of sync. Here's what it all looks like now, in a new and improved version of the chart just above:
|Click here for a live and updating 'print' version|
To be honest, this particular topic is almost worthy of being issued in a new post so that all our friend out there on the interweb or whatever it's called would be alerted that yours truly had issued something he felt was relatively important. But the issue is going to be resolved one way or the other so quickly, probably within the first few hours of trading on Monday, that by tomorrow at noon it might already be a dead topic. Hopefully one that might have affected your positions in some positive way. Because this divergence is going to correct. All that remains to be seen is which of the two is going to surrender the most ground, equities or currencies.
If nothing else, this is one of the best examples of why I'd urge you to watch for new charts every time you visit this page since I quite often add them when the urge strikes me. I also always leave a notice in the comments section that there is a "new chart above". As it turns out, my methods that seem to be evolving here also give me the impression of being kind of "folksy", kind of like a "just between us friends" sort of thing. It's just one of those things that happen I guess, for a person like myself who doesn't offer a daily dose of EW guidance. I'm just not good enough at it to be of any value to you on that topic. For that type of analysis I can recommend no free site any more strongly than Pretzel Logic. I know, I know... I've recommended that site a half dozen times already but I'll do it again shamelessly because that guy does things right on so many different fronts. Another site you might want to consider is Michael Eckert's Elliott Wave Trends and Charts which is a subscription based service. I know Mike personally and am proud to report that he too is a great guy. To his credit, he also owns the same newest model of troll gun that Pretzel and I have, the Binford 6000. And regarding his visions for Elliott Wave Theory... absolutely top notch. One of the very best. He offers a free trial subscription and I'd highly recommend you give it a whirl.
UPDATE: April 27, 2012
I've finally caught up a bit and have time to post one of the market internals charts that, as of this evening, is pointing toward a bounce of some sort. Perhaps way more than a bounce but it's in the very earliest of stages and is still inconclusive at this time. In the chart below we take a look at the daily view of $NYSI, which is the summation index based on the McClellan Oscillator for the NYSE:
|NYSI - Click here for a live and updating version complete with a few key indicators. It updates after the close of daily trading.|
As you can clearly see, as a result of the past 3 days action on the New York Stock Exchange, this indicator is issuing some pretty serious signs that it wants to turn higher. It's difficult to tell yet whether or not this is indicative of a major bottom or whether it's just a hiccup in the indicator very similar to that which occurred in December of last year. That December 'blip' was caused by a sharp rally on the NYSE but it quickly turned lower once again. That same phenomenon could very well happen this time too. Most notable is that although NYSI is definitely struggling to turn higher, it's not from a particularly low level. In fact, if we look at a much longer view, it's clear to see that the NYSI could indeed fall much, much further before it could even begin to be considered as 'oversold'. Nonetheless, we have to take heed of signals such as this.
On the other hand, a weekly chart for NYSI that I have in a totally different configuration is definitely issuing a buy signal. It remains to be seen whether or not that one too will offer any follow-through. At this time, in the wee hours of the morning, the futures are turning bright red with CAC lower by 1.51%, DAX lower by 1.07 and the FTSE lower by... who gives a shit about the FTSE, that market is more manipulated than Gumby's dick. The S&P, Russell, DOW and NDX futures are all red as well and apparently wanting to turn redder. So it remains to be seen. From the Elliott Wave perspective, a case can be made for the market to fall directly from here and another perfectly legitimate case can be made for nothing more than a correction before the market scoots off higher yet again in a fifth and final wave higher.
One other chart in the long list of tools that I use, one which I mentioned further up, is the 'percentage of stocks above their own 50 day moving average. At this moment it is showing a signal that I'd mentioned that I would not ignore the next time I saw it. The action in the markets tomorrow and Monday should provide the confirmation I need to see before I could fully buy into it's bullish signal and accepting that the market is probably off to gain a 5th leg higher. In other words, much like a stochastic or MACD signal, a lower low in this indicator is possibly still in the cards. I'll show you that one when I get time to put it together.
On another topic, since I seem to be on an anti-corruption campaign today, I might as well show you an example of how incredible it is to witness the markets being levitated against all logic on days that matter most to JP Morgan and the rest of that den of Satan worshiping banker-thieves. It doesn't matter whether we're in a bull market or a bear market. It doesn't matter whether or not an investor has correctly pegged the market direction. It doesn't matter whether or not a person is even involved in the stock markets at all. The topic here is "corruption". In the chart below we take a look at NYUD, a figure that represents the "net advancing" volume on any given time frame.
|NYUD - This is such a short term chart that there's not much point in adding a link. All the annotations will have moved off the chart in a few days anyway. Let the 'picture' suffice to make the point.|
NYUD is a calculation of the net result of advancing volume minus declining volume. It just makes sense that in a healthy advancing market, more volume is flowing into advancing issues than into stocks that are falling. That's natural. That's what makes markets go up. But when volume starts to dry up for the advancing issues and starts to increase in those stocks that are declining, and yet the markets just continue higher anyway, you can rest assured that there's an underlying reason for it. Of course, one might argue that just as in any other indicator, a divergence can also be expected and shouldn't be considered too "out of the ordinary" That's true, and the correction will come. But the point I'm making here is that you can bet the farm that you know the days when this type of activity will happen... and "why" it happens. It's the days leading up to and the very day of options exploration. Most Fridays and certainly on the third Friday of every month. It doesn't happen every time, but 90% of the time is a rate that is beyond any possibility of being just random. It's manipulation and that's the end of that story..
My apologies for not supplying more supporting evidence with this post with the addition of supplementary charts of market internals data, but I find myself short of time at this late hour and having to play catch-up thanks to a totally unnecessary disaster courtesy of the local electricity supplier... a monopolistic fascist piece of shit corporation that has about as much social skill and care for its customers as all the rest of them. I have been without electric power for the past 36 hours and am just now back on-line. Needless to say I have a ton of catching up to do. If you like, feel free to bookmark this page as it is often my style to just add charts throughout the week rather than set up a new post. With limited time at my disposal and a lot of catching up to do I'll likely have to take that route this week.
I wish you the best with your trading decisions and bid you a happy and prosperous week.
That CRX/SPY chart I have been posting since the weekend has pretty much completed that fractal, fwiw.ReplyDelete
I say we end between 139.80 and 140.30ish.
Check out that divergence that's going on between the S&P and the Aussie:Yen cross (new chart above). Something's gonna give one way or the other.ReplyDelete
5 trln in new bond buying is expected to be announced by the BOJ Friday morning in Tokyo, according to the Nikkei newspaper.ReplyDelete
Further efforts to devalue the YenReplyDelete
For those of you interested in silver, here's a video I just ran across. It's from about a month ago and speaks very, very bullishly about silver. But I can't seem to find part 1. Maybe you can find it but this segment alone is very interesting. I mean... BULLISH AS HELL:ReplyDelete
I'm bullish on PM's - been long gold for two weeks and watching for the right situation to go long gold.ReplyDelete
On ES, looking to see what happens @ 1400, there's a fib point there IF we're seeing a flat going back to the Apr 10 low, also round-number-itis comes into play.
On a linear chart, the USD _JPY is retesting old resistance, new support. This is inverted, so it's new resistance, old support. A good place to continue the direction it was headed before this retest.ReplyDelete
And the dollar is right happily at support ... not scared by 1400 SP yet.ReplyDelete
I've noticed quite a few times lately when equities and the Aussie:Yen cross get out of sync, it's the equities that were telling the truth and it was the currencies that had to do the adjusting to bring them back into sync. That's not normally what happens considering that the currency markets absolutely dwarf equities. That's just nuts actually. Maybe some sort of quirk but it's very strange.ReplyDelete
Alberta Suxx is now finally turning BULLISH at 1400 SPX.
Booked the profits on the USD/JPY long...ReplyDelete
I'm looking for one more squiggle up to confirm 5 waves off the bottomReplyDelete
You are finally turning BULLISH on the S&P?ReplyDelete
Where have you been for the last 6 months???
What do you do for a living again?
You cant posdibly be a Trader.
I am staying with the weekend plan, win or lose.ReplyDelete
Never mind. SJ just got a bullish cross on the 5 minute USD/JPY. Putting it back on with a stop below that cross.ReplyDelete
What's the weekend plan?ReplyDelete
Already in gold.ReplyDelete
Bought miners today.
That is shorted DUST.
Risk on starting Monday, look for top around 1400 Wednesday-ish (CRX/SPY chart), and play into Moe Gambles 100% stat that we are going to get a lower low. Fractal completed today.ReplyDelete
Prior to the weekend was intended to do opposite of whatever we were doing the 27ish. So, here we are.
Playing the swoon into June and hoping to get risk free on it if we get a new low (look for 1340s to take half from my 1390 short yesterday afternoon).I got huge reservations about it, but staying with it since it happened. Biggest reservation is we are above the God line (monthly average) which is bullish.
That was a great start from Moe.ReplyDelete
Win or lose, I hope he decides to come over here instead of the Danerics cukoos nest
Talking some USD/CAD off here.ReplyDelete
Posted this over at Pretzel's earlier. Just a reminder of where we actually are IMO based on the GDOW.ReplyDelete
Um. I don't chart GDOW because Freestockcharts doesn't give me data far enough back, but does your second green 1 have a lower low than your green B? It would appear to on your chart.ReplyDelete
I'm loving the AUD/JPY as a metric. I check it often. Thanks for the big heads up on that pair.ReplyDelete
Yeah. I'm thinking it's Intermediate 1 of P3 down. Or at least Minor 1 of Intermediate 1 of P3 down.ReplyDelete
Message to BOJ:ReplyDelete
Please just gimme that little (c) of (2) down to 80.86 (but don't touch SJ's stop) to load up some more before you announce anything- GOT IT?
(Hey that reminds me, should be Golden Week coming up soon- in Japan there's a run of 3-4 public holidays, which take up almost a whole week in early May. But nott sure what, if any, effect this would hav on things though..)
SJ refers to the himself in the third person?ReplyDelete
the first week of May?ReplyDelete
I lived in Tokyo for a while- the whole place shuts down for an entire week- bit like the whole of August in Europe,lol
I favor the C of 2 interpretation...then again, my name is DOOM!!! had a 1406 target proposed april 17thReplyDelete
After being a permabear since December, I too share your views that the market is heading higher especially after today's price action above ES 1390. The only stock that matters at the moment is AAPL, and it looks to be in the early stages of the ridiculous parabolic blowoff top we've all been waiting for, simialar to NASDAQ 1998. THE top could come by mid-May IMO as the sell in May schtick might just provide enough short-sellers for the algos to juice the market to new highs.ReplyDelete
WSJ: Why Stocks Are Riskier Than You ThinkReplyDelete
Most people can get the money they need for retirement without gambling heavily on equities http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204795304577221052377253224.html
"A growing sense of urgency is driving many investors to take reckless risks with their money. Even though they experienced the hazards of stock ownership firsthand in 2008, investors are venturing back into equities again. They've been advised that there's no other way to make up the losses they suffered—or meet their looming retirement requirements—and, not to worry, the risk of stocks diminishes the longer you hold them. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, has announced that it intends to keep interest rates low through 2014—providing a powerful inducement to stay in stocks since bonds will probably generate unusually low returns."
desperation is a poor way to evaluate investments.
dc, always appreciate your posts. recently read somewhere , a description of stocks as paper storiesReplyDelete
Here it comes.ReplyDelete
Never been there but it's on my future destinations list. I've always been a fan of the Zen work ethic.
Was it tough to get a date?
do or die now
AUDUSD fell out of the tracks (due to the Spain downgrain) that Moe mentioned at the Troll Site.ReplyDelete
And is retesting it. He thought the tracks were corrective. He thought it would be a good short right there.
Me ... I'm rather lost with the count on that zizagging, soccer-playing killer rabbit.
Hey, they got your letter!ReplyDelete
You .... you're good!
Analyse This - Billy Crystal & de NiroReplyDelete
Only good if the damn thing holds though, right
That's the one! Very funny movie.ReplyDelete
Yes, it's comical to hear how people say it with the tone that "everybody knows that" if you want a decent return, the only thing remaining to invest in is stocks! As IF there is no risk of negative returns. The mood is almost like 1999.ReplyDelete
Here's that article someone posted here -- in case people missed it a month ago -- with an indepth study of the yen-dollar pair.
One key I missed was that when it closes above some K-cloud, a powerful rally usually lasts a year.
Looking good so far.ReplyDelete
85 here we come
jinxed it again.
I guess nothing's a given with Central Banks mucking around
bastards took me out on a spike stop huntReplyDelete
What a wicked gameReplyDelete
Expectations were for 10 tril Yen stimulus going inReplyDelete
They leaked that there would be none 24 hours ago
10 hours ago a news report came out saying it would be 5 tril
The actual statement just now announces 10 tril.
What a big rip off on the stops that candle was.ReplyDelete
A wicked game indeed.
Almost worked to perfection ... except for the stops all getting run ... a nice rocket launch!ReplyDelete
Yeah that place is the laughing stock of the entire blog world now. Wagner has hijacked it and today out of 440 coments, 75 were from that stupid prick himself, lol. He thinks he's having a field day by declaring that "AR goes bullish at 1400". I'm serious, I don't think the guy is even capable of reading. Who cares though, Daneric's is now the only blog on the internet that Wagner can post on. LMAO.ReplyDelete
You betcha. It's pretty amazing isn't it?ReplyDelete
thanks for the news update.ReplyDelete
USDJPY taking over AUD's mantle as The Beast..or maybe Godz-freakin Zilla!
Man, those beautiful stops...I'm weeping into my sake
The blogspot is "silversaxena". That's Rob's. Where are ya Robbie? You put up some great charts man. Let's all go over to Rob's and say hi to him. Just to make sure he knows we love 'im.ReplyDelete
Wonder if the mafia is running this show too.ReplyDelete
This is another wave 2 PTSD scenario (h/t to DivineLove for coining that). It's a lesser degree wave 2 IMO, nested in a larger degree third wave down, but has a lot of the same wave 2 characteristics. It could extend and frustrate more before it gets done.ReplyDelete
nah, at least the Mafia has omerta.ReplyDelete
Next time I listen to the little voice inside my head that tells me to be careful because the trade is too crowded. Usually it just tells me to head to Vegas for the weekend.ReplyDelete
The AUD is in a nice no-brainer third wave up.ReplyDelete
Nice call on that LD down
mind you, those stops look pretty good right now lolReplyDelete
That guy is like poison to any blog he goes to. It's an amazing track record. I first became aware of him on Planet Yelnick. He would regularly post with at least two names in order to make his opinions seem stronger. The funny thing was everybody knew it, but he kept on doing it. If he wasn't such a colossal asshole, I'd almost feel sorry for him. He likes to brag about what good friends he is with Duncan Davidson, but I think that's a probably more a testament to what a nice guy DD is for taking pity on the crazy bastard and talking with him LOL.ReplyDelete
those who are long, or thinking about it...just remember this: if this indeed (c) of (2) , we only need to clear 1.0451 to make a theoretically potentially possibly complete a-b-c.
To quote Dr Jr, "jus sayin"
by my calculations, if this is breached it would rule out 1-2-3-4-5 up as 3 would be the shortest- only other explanation would be we are in iii of 3 .where stop under 30.90 shouldnt be breached
I should probably keep my mouth shut after getting rickshawed & then whipsawed by the Yen, but on the other handReplyDelete
a = 1.618 * c @ around 1.062 which is also around the .618 retrace of the whole move down since Leap Day.
This would jibe with higher highs in equities for sure.
No argument with what you are saying. There are a lot of possibilities at this point
agreed likely target. & europe clearly in 2 upReplyDelete
in fact after an LD, 78%fib not unusualReplyDelete
Still long ES from Tuesday, but finger is on the dump trigger.ReplyDelete
if this aint the bottom here 80.41 I'll meet you in Vegas. then again if it IS the bottom- I'll meet you in Vegas in about 2 weeks time, but with a lot more cash!
I was actually thinking more like 1.07 where c = 2 * a and close to the 75% or so retraceReplyDelete
He basically represents the worst form of social cancer there is, which was the sole reason I started this blog. And the idiot was still stupid enough to have shown up here and tried the same nonsense here as has done at every blog he's ever gone to. Which of course is why I took extreme pleasure a shooting that phony loudmouth right in the face. He's a wedge driver, a two faced loser and he's absolutely the best example I've ever seen for one of my favorite phrases... "the empty can makes the most noise".ReplyDelete
Isn't that right Mike? Go ahead, continue to have your fun over there at the only site on the internet where you can participate. Soon you'll be preaching to a crowd of about 6.
don't know if it will play out - but ... here's a view of the futures - i thought maybe the proposed impulse topped out yesterday...should /ES make a new high above 1403 ... here is a gorgeous proposed ED.ReplyDelete
Decent setup - I count five waves down from last nite's spasm. Three will be the shortest at 80.36.ReplyDelete
That idea is pretty much in line with what I'd drawn on that chart as seen on the "currencies" post. If you're interested there's a list of currencies over there for easy reference. Certainly not all pairs but a few of the key ones. In any case, judging by the indicators it seems that the Aussie:Yen still has some upside to accomplish. But they're getting up there into overbought territory rather quickly and the value on the pair isn't attaining a new high for that 'c' leg (a divergence is starting to develop). So I'm starting to think the entire 'abc' might be finished already. I guess we'll only know for sure when that low at your point 'B' is taken out.ReplyDelete
or...maybe...this morning's open was the E wave?ReplyDelete
The degree of manipulation induced swings in the Russell is getting to be flat out annoying. Up 1% in the overnight, a gap lower on the day session... down 1%... back up to flat. This action is 100% due to "direct" and "deliberate" manipulation by JP Morgan who have been seen in the past trading as many as 25 million shares of IWM over a two hour period... nearly half the entire day's volume in two hours... by 'one' corrupt bank who should never have been allowed to participate in equities markets in the first place. I mean, WTF are banks doing in stock markets anyway? They were created for the sole purpose of lending money into the economy of the jurisdiction they serve, whether it be municipal, state, provincial, federal. That's what banks are supposed to do and "nothing" else.ReplyDelete
well spotted. Although, really it's a complete shemozzle innitReplyDelete
Wow, what a crazy candle last night in USD/JPY. Hoping this is a double bottom in USD/CAD. Longer we stay above the God line, more bullish this is.ReplyDelete
We are below the opening 30 minute candle in SPY, which is not bullish, so the risk off scenario has a little bit of protection this glorious Friday.
Looking at recent price action on a 5-minute chart of the SPX, it does look to me as if the current up-swing is a Wave C, however, it won’t belong now before the wave count picture finally becomes clear.ReplyDelete
On Monday morning IWM was sitting at 78.25. Max Pain for IWM forReplyDelete
today's options expiry was 82. Was there any doubt where IWM would be
driven to? Really, as long as JP Morgan is allowed to participate in
the equities markets this type of activity in equities is virtually
guaranteed 90% of the time. Nothing else matters. News doesn't
matter. What the FED might have to say doesn't matter. What the bond
market is doing doesn't matter. It doesn't matter what's happening
within many of the superb measurements of the appetite for risk. The
only thing that matters is that JPM earns their admitted $25 million per
day in the equities markets and that they don't have a losing day in
any given quarter (also admitted by JPM).
Whether or not a person is long and goes along for that ride is totally irrelevant. It's the corruption that is simply astounding. Anybody who is aware of that type of activity within corporate society and thinks it's a good thing for the country deserves what's coming down the pipe. The innocent don't. Just saying.
You make a terribly naive assumption that the JP Morgan IWM trades are NOT being executed for CLIENTS. Do you even know what "agency" trading is? Apparently not.Delete
If I were to make a judgement based on nothing other than TA indications, I'd have to say that the market internals are all primed for higher prices although a bit more confirmation would be helpful. It won't take long to get it.ReplyDelete
"Longer we stay above the God line, more bullish this is."ReplyDelete
Yeah that was a bitch was it not? in your sentence above, did you mean bullish for the USD/CAD or for the USD/JPY pair or for equities?
This looks more likely than prior chart - clear 5 wave pattern down in ES on 5 minute chart this morning, bounce since then looks more corrective than impulsive so maybe top is inReplyDelete
I meant bullish for equities. We above the monthly average on Spy since Wednesday. So, that is and has been deal. So bears would need the aforementioned hail mary.ReplyDelete
I am gambling on the short against that GOD line bull indicator largely based on the NYMO stat (and we don't have significant SMA crosses yet, so still bear mode on hourly, those they can lag).ReplyDelete
Yeah I'd say the market is way overdue for a pullback, probably starting late today or Monday for sure. But on the larger picture I'd have to go with the market internals data that would now support higher prices. I'd say we might be is wave 1 of 5 higher. Jesus.ReplyDelete
or maybe we get a better looking EDReplyDelete
Thanks for the input DM :-) Keep 'em comin' any time you like.ReplyDelete
Yup looks like we're heading back up to retest the highReplyDelete
By the way SJ (and others of course), the moving averages have turned decidedly bullish as well. I don't know why I have trouble believing them. I shouldn't. It's starting to look to me that we might have to just play the markets from the long side and forget about it. I definitely 'do' expect a pullback on Monday though, possibly a vicious one. But that won't change the moving averages. Depending on what shape that pullback takes (IF it comes at all) it might just be another magnificent BTFD opportunity. We'll see but that's what it's starting to look like to me.ReplyDelete
One has to admit that this is one magnificent machine driven manipulation.ReplyDelete
careful...we reversed this week a year ago and the year before....(anniversaries are important in Gann theory)ReplyDelete
The GDOW retrace now looks good, hitting the 38.2 Fib. It looked like unfinished business before. The SP500 looks like the familiar intervention-powered overshooting C of wave 2. Both indexes have complete-looking ABC structures now.ReplyDelete
What time frame for the GDOW do you like to see... I'll put one (or a few) together.ReplyDelete
I hear you partner. I'm on the edge of my seat because we're literally at a point where all hell could break loose in either direction. I'm starting to see all kinds of things bullish... but that wouldn't at all be out of the ordinary either at a major top. In other words, just as we see a moving average compression or a tightening of the Bollinger Bands or a flattening of a MACD... we don't know whether or not it's a consolidation (from which it will resume it's prior direction) or an actual turning point. I do appreciate your reminder buddy :-)ReplyDelete
It's got to be some kind of short term signal, like the ratio moves inverse to the market.ReplyDelete
I've got a very strong sense that a guy like that is gonna die young. People that live with that much vitriol and self hate gon't give themselves a fair chance at a long healthy life. I've seen it before.ReplyDelete
Roger. 4 Hour turned bullish on Thursday for me. Wednesday we closed above Monthly Average, which is bullish and not something I want to screw around with too much unless we are in the upper regressions. Hail Mary for the swoon into June is all that is left for da bears.ReplyDelete
Agreed... on every count.ReplyDelete
USD/JPY is right above solid supportReplyDelete
Also (y) = (w)ReplyDelete
My fave is the monthly or weekly zoomed-out view showing P1-P3 (if the degree labeling is right). Helps to keep things in perspective.ReplyDelete
I think he's a bright guy...just completely insane.Even Moe lost it this week.Was quite funny ! I got cross with Geno ...he stepped over the line.Don't know whats happened to the guy.ReplyDelete
I hear ya...but there's still the occasional nugget there.I like Sinuhet for example.ReplyDelete
(he's 52 .....:-) )ReplyDelete
Interesting ... and the low of the dollar was April 28 to May 4th of last year, so that anniversary is coming up also.ReplyDelete
Very good point ... they will take whatever side is lopsided, eh? Guess I need to start following that to be a true contrarion. Maybe they've taken enough to even out the sides, it's been tight trading for awhle now, maybe now it will be allowed to go up.ReplyDelete
That was a totally sweet presentation he made.ReplyDelete
And Max Cherry's tables and analysis are solid gold. The only reason I ever go over there anymore is to try to syphon off posters to over hereReplyDelete
AR. I don't want you to be offended. I go there for other reasons. I get a feel off it and off responses to things. Only reason. I have a private blog I spend much of my time at and also here because I like you guys and the currency traders here are very good and helpful with TA. I like the people that post here and the information they post. Papa's GDOW had me emailing Dog as I hadn't spotted it. The gann and cycle stuff. Iriqouis. DK, you, Chartrambler, Pebbles when he stops in, D Love, and on and on....you were the people I liked actually chatting with on Danerics. And so forth. So please don't think me stopping at Danerics is something other than something else. I like to know where I stand on the group think and posting some stuff over there and reading the posts over there tells me where I am at on that. I did relentlessly insult the troll for about a week straight if it is any consultation.ReplyDelete
No worries SJ. You're a good dude and I harbor no ill feelings. It's just that that site has turned into an absolute gong show without any leader. I mean where in hell is the owner of that blog and what in hell is he thinking letting it get like that? If it's his way of measuring social mood I can give him about 20 ideas that would be a hell of a lot smarter than allowing the destruction of his own house. Not to mention the level of anguish and aggravation that those of us who have contributed to his site for years have had to endure for over a year now. I mean WTF is wrong with his head? Is it any wonder I contribute absolutely nothing to his site these days?ReplyDelete
It's actually damaging for me to go to that site and leave a comment because if it includes a link, that comment is likely to end up in the spam bin and Danno is too irresponsible to retrieve it and in the process "correct" Disqus. Pretzel does correct Disqus when it spams one of my comments and thanks to that high level of responsibility he's helping stupid Disqus to learn to leave me alone.
But I still have to say it again, I have no idea why people would go there when their very presence provides the audience that childish asshole craves so deeply. I respect your reasons for going though. If you're gaining some sort of sense on the group think... fair enough. It's to your advantage to get all the inputs that are important to you and your trading and I certainly can't hold that against anybody.
And he had the audacity to send me a private message at Seeking Alpha where he said something to the effect "since you're so old"..... I'm not even 10 years older than him. And I could still kick his ass in the back alley. I guarantee that 100%.ReplyDelete
I am not sure what is wrong with Daneric. I like him as a person. Hope he is doing well. He has really been absent quite a bit lately. He was on fire from July 2011 on until about February.ReplyDelete
Big picture is shit did rollover and sell at those January/February rollovers, just not Spy. So, I don't know if that has him down or what it is.
The site is worthless now as far as posting anything real or having a real conversation. That is why I am glad you opened this blog.
Wish we could get Moe Gamble and some others here. But people will come of their own accord.
Ok let's start with these. I've put a few valuable indicators on it and you can tell me how you want it customized if you like... including the labeling. But nobody can ever convince me that the wave sequence I've highlighted in blue is a correction, lol. That bitch is a fiver.ReplyDelete
I have been using the dollar cycle for one of the reasons I am not convinced that the June swoon is off the table. Working it up on DXY (instead of UUP) given CR's work. UUP had the cycle low in this arear (Wednesday). BRB.ReplyDelete
Now, I have been using Gold as my risk on play instead of equities. So, here is something interesting that I have been pondering. We have cycle lows in Gold too. So, either one of those two charts is wrong (GLD and DXY) or, if they are both right, gold gonna rally with the dollar. What environment would we need for them both to be right? Yayzz.ReplyDelete
Thanks for the support there guys, I hadn't seen that. It's a bit ironic (or is it?) that Geno took a swipe at me today because Apart did the exact same thing over on the CIL that Wagner did . I 'never' go to the CIL but I noticed that people from over there were visiting this blog today. So I went there to see what's up and lo and behold, Apart had taken the identical swipe at me that Wagner had. Something akin to "everybody go short... AR just went bullish."ReplyDelete
The sad part is that obviously not one of these assholes has read this post. Otherwise they'd see that I'm presenting arguments that unfortunately aren't clear yet. Market internals are definitely pointing toward the bullish case. BUT the reactions we're seeing in those market internals are not happening at a particularly low level, which in itself says that even though they're turning bullish it could very well be in reaction to this recent "correction higher" and nothing more than that. IOW the market internals signals could turn lower once again over the next day or two and ignite one hell of a sell signal. Hence the title "Why Does It Agonize Me To Get Bullish?" I just explained why but those pricks didn't even bother to read the post in order to get the answer to the question. How fucking shallow can people get? Obviously I was mistaken in thinking that Apart was a lot sharper than that.
I just wish these assholes would either read my entire post and not just the title before they go spouting off like that... or else don't read anything at all and just STFU.
Yes, they will come of their own accord if they want to. But I'm sure as hell not going to go over there and urge them. That would be terribly low and scummy on my part and I'm just not that kind of guy. Wagner is.ReplyDelete
Not everybody is an AR fan either. At one time damned near everybody was, but as the trolling started and I started showing my temper and that I'm not gonna be a pushover nor a whipping boy for anybody on this planet, a lot of people became turned off. If anybody had high enough status to talk down to me it was my father... and he never did it. And since nobody else on this planet will ever attain the status of my father, then I'm not taking shit from nobody, lol.
Pretty Flamingo - The BossReplyDelete
Fact we broke the 2010 pivot low is not a good sign. Makes the move off the 2009 lows likely a 3 wave.ReplyDelete
The most amusing irony of it is that it is they who just turned bullish. I am absolutely confounded that nobody sees that. Perhaps I am the only one who reads the posts on Danerics, lol.ReplyDelete
yes, thanks it was your post on Pretzel that alerted me to it !ReplyDelete
you will have to join the queue !ReplyDelete
Apart's a good guy,very cynical with a dry humor...I doubt it was meant personally.I don't suppose Geno meant anything by it either,but he should know better by now after all thats gone on,not to feed the trolls.Especially that Troll.ReplyDelete
My contribution to today's playlist is to offer perhaps some constancy in collisionsReplyDelete
It's been said that
Truth consists, not of contradictions, but of moments which, if separated, would be contradictions, but which in their synthesis are reconciled and consistent
Yes,with an intervening low on the 6 month cycle in October.Can be shown as a T-theory cycle ?http://4.bp.blogspot.com/--H9gbNu5l_g/T5whQxg4xhI/AAAAAAAAKio/EiEzrJim4GQ/s1600/ftse.jpgReplyDelete
One thing I've been arguing for two years now (starting on Seeking Alpha, then on Michael Eckert's blog, then on Danno's and everywhere else I participate) is that if we were to have a deflationary event we could see the USD and precious metals rising at the same time.ReplyDelete
Some will ask how that is even possible but I just remind people that the vast majority of debt in the world is still denominated in USD. And so are almost all commodities in the world priced in terms of US dollars. If the dollar takes off higher that would be deflationary for people who's home currency is that dollar... and that's pretty much Americans only.
But in the eyes of anybody else, they would be seeing their own currency devaluing relative to the USD and anything else priced in US dollars. In other words they'd be experiencing inflation. Therefore they'd be seeking some place to put their remaining investable money so that it at least retains some of its value. Not only would that just feed into further demand for USD but also for gold and silver. They might even hoard oil if they've got a big 1,000,000 barrel storage tank somewhere in their back yard. But since that's not very practical they'd be seeking something a little smaller and more convenient. Gold and silver should become the "automatic" best choices.
If I were a European with some assets lying around and I see gold and silver starting to skyrocket in terms of my own devaluing Euros as well as all my other assets, I'd be entertaining the idea of buying some of that gold and silver right quick. Same thing would be seen for other people from all over the world who's currencies would be devaluing relative to the US dollar and anything else priced in terms of US dollars... like oil, wheat, beef and gold.
I think what really matters most is that we recognize what is seen through the eyes of the 'rest of the world' when the US dollar surges. One economist as recently as perhaps 6 months ago suggested that at best the Euro should be at par with the dollar right now. What it's doing way up here at this elevated level is a total mystery.
Happy Saturday buddy. I've got a hunch you have an appreciation for Bruce just like many of us. If that's the case, here's something I think you will really enjoy. There is a very prolific and successful author of novels who lives here in Calgary. Jeff Buick is his name (real name, lol) and before this year is through I intend to hook up with him and discuss writing. In any event, he offers a beautiful story that was recounted to him by a friend named Rich Hanf... a musician from Hamburg, New Jersey. Back in 1973, Hanf had the pleasure of bumping into a little performance by Bruce Springsteen before Springsteen was even a name. At the time Springsteen was just "some new folk rock guy from Asbury Park". Believe it or not it happened at Fairleigh Dickinson University in Teaneck NJ"outside…BEHIND the Student Union building…in a small court yard."ReplyDelete
Here's the whole story as recounted by Jeff Buick and Rich Hanf. I think you're gonna enjoy this :-)
If you put this trajectory on other weekly sells, it seems to be that when it breaks we go higher. So, decent line for the correction is over correction is not over middle of the chart debate. Should free up my Sunday to something else rather than ponder the unponderable. LOL...great weekend all.
AB- very good analysis, answers some lurking questions I had - i.e both Gold and US$ look bullish to me going forward, US$ might see a short term sell off 1st before turning higher but past that it looks bullish - and that had me scratching my head. Thanks.ReplyDelete
Hell yes. I've been a fan all of my conscious life, and I've felt that transcendent energy up close. I could go on and on about him, and I've been told I'm a bit obsessive. I'll just say that I love that story and Backstreets is my favorite song.ReplyDelete
BTW according to brucebase.wikispace.com that Fairleigh Dickinson show took place on May 11, 1974. Too bad he left early because there was a really famous legendary show Bruce played just two days before in Cambridge Mass which was witnessed by his future manager and then rock critic Jon Landou. Your friend probably knows of it. Bruce and the band were on fire that year.
Nice chart of the dollah ... at your bb AND that longer term support line. And the anniversary date. My bet is it holds.ReplyDelete
Yes ... And they are silent at bottoms ... they only come out after rises.ReplyDelete
yes Max's charts,Bkalp and quite a few othersReplyDelete
Some EW alternate counts for the ES http://www.willowtreetrading.blogspot.com/ReplyDelete
great writing ! I had a holiday job as a student working in the parks department,was clearing out an old shed and came across some billboards,one of which was an old poster for Genesis playing at Epsom Baths ! I saw them at Knebworth some time later.Quite an experience !ReplyDelete
Looking for price to triangulate for a week or two before last peakReplyDelete
I like that 1st alternate with a H&S false breakout then up to new highs. Nice tactical moveReplyDelete
I am going with line and nothing else. It holds we got to 1340s, it breaks 1427-33 minimums and maybes the 1472.ReplyDelete
I am have been with Dog on the gold thing. Hate it. Gold bugs, vending machines. Ughhh. But, I like it here. I have been told that the Algos require 5000. Man I dunno, but your scenario would make it possible. I always wonder how anybody can think this is a real bull market with gold so high. If this were a real bull market there would not be a need to own gold, so it seems. So, I think gold dropping would be bullish from a sentiment standpoint for the global economies and so forth. Cannot believe I am even writing this, but trying to keep my mind open on the stupid gold thing that will someday end very badly for lots of people like every other bubble.ReplyDelete
Thank you for the kind words AR, with the market essentially moving sideways, I haven't seen too many interesting things out there that haven't been commented on, until now that is. Here are my current thoughts on where we could possibly be right now.ReplyDelete
Excellent fractal of sorts...ReplyDelete
Truth remains constant. The circumstances appear different?
May 11, 1974... I was one month away from graduating from college myself (SAIT Polytechnic). I had the honor to see a few concerts myself by people who went on to become real legends themselves. Roy Orbison (who was a legend already), Gordon Lightfoot who is perhaps the greatest songwriter to ever come out of Canada. Here's one of his classics... just a stunning depiction of how important the gigantic trans-Canada railway system was in stitching this vast nation together. I hope you can appreciate this type of music. The Canadian Railroad TrilogyReplyDelete
Lightfoot wrote so many greats that it's just amazing... a true storyteller of epic proportions.
The Wreck of The Edmund Fitzgerald
Yup... that's the one that just jumped of the page at me as well. But I'm afraid I'm seeing some pretty bullish looking stuff coming out of the market internals department that suggest maybe the alt #3 is more likely... straight up from here. Ewwwww I just freakin' hate this market so bad. I'd love it if the banks weren't involved though. And I'd be a hell of a lot wealthier too because TA 'does' work when the banks aren't fking with it.ReplyDelete
Yeah that would have been very cool. Well done! My wife (when I was married) and our daughter went to see U2... just loved it. I think the album they did was Joshua Tree.ReplyDelete
That's interesting isn't it. That my opinion which is based on what I think might be 'logical' is indeed lining up with charts that look bullish for the dollar as well as precious metals... both at the same time.ReplyDelete
I see some people calling for gold and silver to skyrocket and in the back of my mind I sometimes think... "well you know what that means folks. It means you're expecting precious metals to rise but at the same time you're expecting equities to tumble? Ain't gonna happen."
And then I catch myself... and remind myself that even I have laid out a reason why it could happen. That's how conditioned we have become to thinking that gold can only rise in an inflationary market... and that if it does so, then equities will continue higher as well. In other words, sometimes I have to jolt myself away from that fixation because I think it's false. Gold 'can' rise during a deflationary phase, especially once the fear factor starts to take hold once we're well into the process. We could see gold and the DOW cross paths at 4500
Especially not to link that troll with my good name in any god damned way.ReplyDelete
LOL... my pleasure. As long as I get my turn. It wouldn't take long.ReplyDelete
Superior its saidReplyDelete
never gives up her dead
when the Gail's of November blow early
Oh yeah, spent a lot of time in Michigan's Upper Peninsula when I was younger. It was like their theme song up there. Hearing that makes me want to head north this summer
People ask sometimes why I would be bearish. Do I really want people to experience economic hardship?ReplyDelete
I tell them we'll all be better off the sooner this system collapses because it has actually literally enslaved more and more people.
SJ lived in Duluth. We love that song.ReplyDelete
Hey peeps (I meant to say "poops" but never could type well), I've added some commentary above complete with a new and updated chart showing the very, very interesting development in the relationship between equities and that always-reliable Aussie:Yen currency pair. Consider it a heads up.ReplyDelete
Also please note something new I'm planning on employing from this day forth. Since it's difficult for you to recognize 'at a glance' whether or not I've sneaked in some new commentary (as I often do since I don't make new posts every single time a new thought pops into my head), in order to make things much easier from now on the 'latest commentary' will appear in blue as seen above. I'll definitely leave it as blue for that entire trading day and perhaps carry it over for the next day as well, but only until I add something new for that day. At that time, what you now see as blue will have been relegated to "old news" and will revert to the standard text color. The 'latest commentary' will then take on the blue color so you can spot it easily.
Now that that's out of the way... back to the update above. To be honest I find that one to be of the highest degree of interest because it portends something big is going to happen either in equities or currencies either during the overnight session and most likely into the first half of trading tomorrow. We'll see what happens, but man it is interesting.
Lol... you're sure not far away from the Great White North. Yay Bimiji state... some pretty damned good American hockey players come out of there.ReplyDelete
Just FYI, I personally think Gordon is the best lyricist, songwriter, storyteller ever to come out of Canada but Joni Mitchell would be a very close second. My elder sister went to school with her.
Not silly at all. I think the evidence is pretty strong over the last few years that simple channels and trend lines are important to somebody. (Remember the P2 Maginot trend line?) Maybe if only because they believe they're important to everybody else.ReplyDelete
Ka roo koo koo koo koo koo koo....ReplyDelete
Well, it appears to me to be the uncharted waters of what is nothing more than a shared (de) illusion. Since we know the weapons of mass destruction, derivatives, are not going away, I guess we do what we do knowing certain powers within humanity can blow this earth up many times over with other weapons of mass destruction. Maybe that's why they say ignorance is bliss and denial is a river in Egypt...ReplyDelete
You know, this shared delusion could go on for many many years.... Is there any physical law you know of that would preclude that from happening? Debt and derivatives and fiat money are illusions that can be magically turned into other kinds of currencies and powers... I was thinking this has to hit a brick wall somewhere. But because the whole thing is so surreal, I'm beginning to question why it must hit a wall at all. Maybe the illusion simply transforms itself?
Maybe humanity must wake up to it's own dream state before anything substantial changes.
Some will say we hit a wall when we run out of natural resources. Yes, but a new kind of growth will occur. The economy will not be consumer-based, but one based on creativity. The most valuable natural resource will become our ability to innovate.ReplyDelete
Simple stuff is the best for me. I can not consistently repeat the complicated stuff. I think I had the trajectory a tad too tight. Updated it, lol....ReplyDelete
Michael Eckert is a good guy and his analysis is sound. Great charts too. Anybody who charts like he does and is also a sheep farmer is top notch in my book.ReplyDelete
I wish he was still a free site, but I understand that if he believes his work is worth a subscription and he can get it, then he should.
Yay! For the record my favorite Canadian performer:ReplyDelete
EURO might puke here a bit overnights...ReplyDelete
Does anybody have a target retrace for the USDJPY?ReplyDelete
80 would be about a 50% retrace of the big wave from 76 to 84.
I do not GIB. I have a 127.2 and a 161.8 at 79.91. I have a line of shorter term fib confluence right here where it is, but we bussed a channel so I am not in the mood to fuck with it after that massive candle got my stop last week.ReplyDelete
It is sitting on the 21 EMA on the Weekly. So, middle of the chart. Hold it and a run up, break it and lots of chart below. I dunno. Not saying it shouldn't be touched, I just don't have anything that helps ya.ReplyDelete
Thanks for your observations. Yes, I was watching that absolute craziness in this pair last week, so I'd like to see some proof that it's found support after running those stops, and flipping a crowded trade. Before I touch it -- but figured we should be close, now that the big news event is behind us.ReplyDelete
I adjusted that channel a smidge. Sitting on it here roughly. Paralell off the 2/25 and 2/26 highs....ReplyDelete
USDJPY looking for a low near 80 as you say, but really have nothing much to go on. It could go down to the 61Fib if this is (ii) of 3 on weekly.
One clue could be this- i'm watching AUDJPY. Looking for it to clip 83.48, then run up to 86ish in 3 of (c) of 2 ....so you'd think USDJPY would be going the same way (UP) if that happened. Just a guess tho really.
Thanks for the clue using AUDJPY ... that helps make it seem less random.ReplyDelete
Haha... you know where the word "hoser" comes from right? And of course I don't mean Bob and Doug... it has to do with hockey.ReplyDelete
I'm more inclined to think it's headed to 82ish before heading higher. But I think the key level is 81ish, or more accurately the high of Dec. 8th. If it breaches that level then it would be suggesting that the entire move of the Oct. low (in that pair) was in fact a great big 'ABC' upward correction in a bearish cycle. That would imply that the same thing is happening in equities. Don't know for sure but this is what I'm thinking:ReplyDelete
yep, could still be in iv, I'll give you that.....BUTReplyDelete
1. AUDUSD bullish for the next week or so - if it breaks under 1.0250, it's all over
2. Europe clearly in W2 up now.
So I think AUDJPY is big picutre bearish, but may has done a LD wedgy thing for 1 down already
Actually the momentum indicators are supporting higher prices, not lower prices as I was envisioning. Based on EWT I'd say lower. Based on momentum, moving averages etc, I'd say higher. I'm starting to think that 81 level is something we might not see until 2025 the way things are going. And I agree on the AUD/USD... looking bullish. So that means equities are headed higher for the foreseeable future. Looks like my "reluctance to go bullish" was base on some silly notion that there were deflationary forces at work in the world. Apparently not. Spain's going to default. Doesn't matter though.ReplyDelete
just watch out though re AUDReplyDelete
RBA rates decision tomorrow. 0.25% priced-in, but decent chance of 0.5% cut.
Plus, technically, it's surpassed 1.0450 high of A, so C 'could' be doneski already
just a quick eyeball on NZDUSD shows possible 1-2 ,1-2 etc...so not a thorough analysis!ReplyDelete
going short here tight stop above 0.8225
SJ, watch u got on NZD?
did DAX just reach 6850 , 50sma & 50%fib after an a-b-c?ReplyDelete
Gann analysis of silver http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/did-july-silver-bottom-last-week%20-121650ReplyDelete
Yes very true.I have often used the smoking parallel.You can say I've been smoking for 30 years and I'm fine then one day you get cancer .No one knows when you reach the tipping point.This particular tipping point will be higher interest rates I suspect.ReplyDelete
Reminder to anyone long AUDUSDReplyDelete
looks bullish...yeah it does...
but REMEMBER this: technically possible complete A-B-C off the 1.0226 low.
Thas all folks.
Gann analysis of silver http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/did-july-silver-bottom-last-week%20-121650ReplyDelete
Here's what I'm working with for the AUD/USDReplyDelete
Means must be subsidiary to ends and to our desire for dignity and value
Easy from here. If we don't explode higher soon than it's invalidatedReplyDelete
Nanoscopic signs of life in USDJPY off 80.01ReplyDelete
Ah, that's the obvious one... most bearish scenario that C wave already doneski is not out of the question. just watch for the rate cut tomorrow. .if it's 0.5% could be brutalReplyDelete
Hugh hendry http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/91764042ReplyDelete
peak of c equals a so that bolsters the bear caseReplyDelete
however, I'm looking at C = A * sq rt 2 and thinking (wondering?) a reversal is imminent
You're probably right in that nothing much will happen until then.ReplyDelete
could just tank now anyway if C is over. Seems like everyone bullish. whether looking for new high in SPX, or more to come for W2....I smell a ratReplyDelete
It's got to be a bottom now, don't you think?ReplyDelete
Approaching 50% retrace
who knows...there is a confluence of trendlines & support at 79-79.50. Of course if it gets down that far, near the 61%Fib, would increase the chance it's (ii) of 3...so worth watching closely.ReplyDelete
This is great if you have 5 minutes http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3h8O7V-WxWQ&feature=youtu.beReplyDelete
ES correction over? UP UP and AWAY?ReplyDelete
Looks like 5 waves down into the low a little bit ago on both ES & SPX, looking for at least a bounce here. This is where the rubber meets the road, if it turns up will it just be a bounce or something more? I have an uptrend line currently @ ES 1390.50 that would be a line in the sand.ReplyDelete
FWIW long USDJPY here at 79.75.... speccie thoReplyDelete
I don't have anything on NZD DK. Not watching it for entry right now. It is though at middle of the 8 hour chart. I am on the weekend scenario/last weekend scenario still. Long dollar pairs (USDCAD and USDCHF but not USDJPY) on the SPY 134s theory. Break that blue line from my SPX chart this weekend and I stop. Looking for down into the 4th under that scenario.ReplyDelete