Sunday, March 3, 2013

AAPL:$NDX Ratio Comes Completely Unglued On New Year's Eve

Nearly a year ago we took a fairly close look at the AAPL:$NDX ratio in which we demonstrated that any time we saw that ratio falling, the NASDAQ 100 simply had to follow suit.  And vice versa.  And of course that made perfectly good sense since AAPL represented an incredibly large chunk of the $NDX.  With one single corporation representing approximately 20% of an entire index rising or falling, it logically follows that the entire index must do the same.  How could it not?  The entire point of following a ratio of this type is to try to use it to our advantage in spotting a likely turning point for the larger index.  And ever since that short article was written, the $NDX has indeed followed the ratio loyally.  Incredibly, that metric came to a screeching halt on Jan. 1 of this year.
[The previous study of last April can be found here]

Since the first trading session following New Year's Eve, AAPL, a corporation that is larger than the economy of Switzerland, has just continued its downslide which started in Sept. and has fallen a further 21% in the past two months alone.  In total, AAPL has declined 38.4% off its high that was registered on Sept. 21.  That my friends is a crash of mega proportions by any standard.  But when a meltdown like that occurs in the single largest corporation not only in the NAS 100 group, but in the entire solar system, one has to really sit up and truly try to understand the sheer enormity of an event like that.  Imagine if the headlines read "Economy of Switzerland Declines 38.4% In Second Half".  [The decline in AAPL is nearing its 6 month anniversary.]

Click here for a live and updating version

So now we're faced with a real dilemma.  First of all,  let's try to ascertain why the ratio has totally broken down as an indicator.  When did the breakdown occur?  Well, as clearly evident on the chart above, on the first trading day of this calendar year something happened that completely shattered the myth that "leaders lead".  How in hell is this possible?  What happened on that day?  Well for one thing, that was the first trading day that followed the eve of the Congressional Comedy Show, the night when the world held it's collective breath as a human form of "leaders who don't lead" did little other than to bathe in the global limelight and the sheer glory of their own presence... and then did nothing.  For those of you who have already forgotten what a silly and unnecessary piece of low quality drama that was, here's how the Guardian recorded it.

What followed on the next trading day was a rocket shot in equities markets heard around the world.  Does anybody know why that happened by the way?  To me it would have made more sense if global markets had tanked when the non-leaders of the largest economy in the world made the deliberate decision to bankrupt the nation.  And here we are now, just two short months later and that decision has effectively been reversed.  Spending will be cut.  Not enough, but it's a start.  So the most obvious question then should be "Is the fact that "the deflationary budget cuts are going into effect" going to fix what is wrong with the AAPL:$NDX ratio?"  After all, sequestration is the direct opposite of the event that was used as the excuse to launch the markets on Jan. 2.  I don't know the answer to that question, but the logical conclusion would seem to be "yes, the correlation between AAPL and the NDX should once again become direct and nearly instantaneous as it had always been prior to the contrived equities launch of Jan. 2."  That's not to say it will necessarily happen though since the global banking cabal seems to have patented the rights to logic and banned its use until further notice.  A page right out of Monsanto's handbook.  Nonetheless, we do our best to work through the smoke and mirrors.

A Short Exercise To Examine the Enormity Of This Aberration

So why did the ratio break down?  What would be required for it to break down?  In order to try to get a grasp on what effect AAPL's recent performance has had on the $NDX, I turned to a little calculator I devised on Excel a couple of years ago that can provide those answers reasonably accurately.  I say "reasonably" because we're never certain what weighting to give AAPL as a percentage of the entire NASDAQ 100.  The last figure I read said that AAPL comprised 19.8% of the entire $NDX, and of course as the value of AAPL drops, so does its weighting.  So for the sake of this discussion I used 16% since AAPL has declined considerably in recent months.

The results show that had AAPL behaved just since the first trading day of this year exactly the same as the other 99 companies in the $NDX had done, the $NDX would have closed on Friday at approximately 2855 instead of 2747.75.  Let's round that off to 107 points difference.

This incredible dichotomy can legitimately be viewed through different prisms.  On the one hand it is clear that the decline in AAPL has held the $NDX back since the first of the year by 107 points or approximately 3.9%.  On the other hand, the question should be asked "Well, how much did it take to keep the other 99 stocks in the $NDX from falling at all during the first two months of this year?".  Because let's keep it real here, when the largest corporation in an index of only 100 issues representing 16% of that entire index falls 21% in two months, the entire index has to be effected to the downside... unless there is a deliberate and considerable cash injection into the other 99 issues designed to offset it.  Clearly that has to be what has happened because the entire $NDX, including AAPL, has not budged... it is dead flat since Jan.2.  Talk about going to extremes to make sure we don't upset the AAPL cart!  Perhaps all the money that fled AAPL since Jan. 2 found its way into the other 99 stocks?  Who knows?  How much money is that anyway?  I don't know how many shares of AAPL are outstanding but it wouldn't be difficult to put a figure on it.  But for the sake of this exercise the actual figure is almost a moot point.  Whether the extra funding for the remaining 99 'little stragglers' in the NDX came from the sales of AAPL shares or came from under Jamie "that's why I'm richer than you" Dimon's mattress is also a moot point.  The simple fact is that when AAPL tanked the NDX was propped up, end of story.  So we try to work through the noise and...


...continue toward getting some answers.

So what's next?  Is the decline in AAPL complete or near completion?  I do not believe it is.  If not, what does that mean for the overall $NDX going forward?  And perhaps most importantly, what would be the result when AAPL does find a bottom and comes roaring back with a vengeance... even if it were only a snapback corrective rally in a larger cyclical or even secular downtrend for AAPL?  The recent record suggests that if AAPL finds a bottom before the $NDX decides to play catch-up, the rally that would be ignited in the NAS would likely be spectacular.  Would it rise as much as AAPL will?  Absolutely not!  Would it rise at least to a certain degree along with AAPL?  Definitely!  Will those events finally turn the AAPL:$NDX ratio higher thereby granting the green light for new highs?  Yes, the ratio would obviously turn higher but it would almost assuredly just be a bounce. For our immediate trading needs though, we don't have to have the answer to that last question just yet.  But sure as the sun will rise tomorrow, at some point we will!  So we'll be keeping our eyes open for these signals because sure as shootin' they're coming, although it seems they're perhaps three or four weeks away.

Let's dismantle the ratio for a moment and take a look at each factor separately.  First AAPL. A quick glance at the weekly chart below shows just how serious this decline in AAPL really is, especially in light of the fact that the major trend line dating back to the 2009 lows has been emphatically breached.  This of course is not to imply that an impressive bounce won't happen, I'm sure it will.  But that bounce does not appear to be on the immediate horizon:

AAPL Weekly - Click here for a live and updating version which includes several indicators and a few annotations

Next we zoom in on a daily chart for AAPL to see if we can garner any clues about the potential for a near term bottom:

AAPL Daily - Click here for a live and updating version which includes several indicators and a few annotations

I think there are two keys to the daily chart of AAPL.  Firstly, the pattern that has emerged since day one of this year has evolved as a series of 3-wave sequences (white).  Those are the hallmarks of a diagonal.  Usually there is overlap between wave 1 and wave 4 in a diagonal but the AAPL case is a bit of an anomaly I think, because although all the white waves are 3s (including the two down-legs), there is no overlap.  Nonetheless it is an impulse that certainly seems to need a 5th leg lower.  Again, as seen on the weekly chart for AAPL, the daily also shows the area of 355 as being a reasonable target.   A second and important key to the AAPL's daily chart is that none of the indicators are supporting the idea of higher prices at this point.  So let's go with a price target for AAPL of $355 before we're likely to see any reasonable bottom.

And finally we'll investigate what the future might hold for the $NDX itself.  Without even bothering you with a weekly chart, I'll just summarize the situation with a comment that all you bright readers are already aware of... the $NDX along with all the other majors are way overbought on a weekly bases complete with negative divergences on all fronts and they are due for a pullback.  As well, the sharp leg down off the September top in the $NDX was an impulse while the current up-leg, at least at this stage, seems to be a clear corrective.  In a normal world there would be little argument (not even from the most staunch bulls) that another down leg is now most likely.  We should be seeing either a 'C' leg lower or a wave 3 at any time now. 

So we dial in on the daily chart of the $NDX and cover the exact same time span that we investigated for AAPL a little earlier:

$NDX  Daily - Click here for a live and updating version which includes several indicators and a few annotations

In his highly referenced library of chart patterns, Thomas Bulkowski describes the "Reverse Symmetrical Triangle" here.  One of the requirements for a proper triangle of this nature is that it be made up of 5 legs, each one of them itself being a 3-wave sequence.  On the chart of $NDX it is difficult to discern those five 3-wavers.  But if you recall from the daily APPL chart, in that exact same time space APPL does indeed display what looks to be four of the five required 3-wavers.  This fact makes it even easier to accept that what we are looking at in the $NDX is indeed a legitimate bearish broadening triangle.


Mr. Bulkowski also goes on to note that this pattern is not very good at providing guidance about which way it will break out.  But Dr. Robert McHugh is quite vocal about these patterns being very bearish.  I fully concur with Dr. McHugh in this regard for the following reason; psychologically speaking, I interpret the ever-widening swings as betraying ever-increasing skittishness, indecision and fear as time moves forward.  This is the exact opposite psychology present in a regular symmetrical triangle where price moves toward the triangle's apex to the right.  In other words, in a regular symmetrical triangle, investors are becoming less and less fearful as time progresses.  The individual movements up and down decrease in size as each day ticks by and fear dwindles.  It's no mystery that it's during these very types of patterns that the $VIX drops to levels that just scream "Complacency!"  So it seems perfectly logical that that's why symmetrical triangles almost always break out in the same direction that price was headed when it entered that triangle, especially when the larger trend is to the upside.  They even display that behavior to the downside in cases when the overall sentiment was bearish as price entered the triangle.  As time progresses in a regular symmetrical triangle those bears become increasingly comfortable that they had made the right decision.  And in decades past, before the banking slobs were permitted to come swooping and mess with normal market forces on an hourly basis, the dependability of the symmetrical triangle in a bear cycle was just as reliable as it was in the bullish phases.  So almost by default, I'm quite convinced that the broadening triangle displays behavior diametrically opposed to the psychology of comfort and calm found in a regular symmetrical triangle.  Broadening symmetrical triangles are bearish.

To sum it up then, I think the huge disparity between AAPL and the $NDX, as revealed by the ratio between the two, is about to be resolved.  I'll stick my neck out here and call for a rather harsh pullback over the next 3 or 4 weeks in all the major indices, with AAPL continuing to fall considerably harder than the $NDX does during that period.  And the ratio continues to drop.  I do so because I still believe in technical analysis, especially when it offers clues about overall market psychology on a scale as broad as this.  And right or wrong, I simply interpret the market action since Jan. 2 as having been corrective and illusory.  I believe that will be proven correct as the ratio has revealed a rare market extreme that simply cannot persist. 

Wishing readers all the best... and stay safe!



103 comments:

  1. truerangeballisticMarch 3, 2013 at 10:24 AM

    Howdy AR,
     
    Great stuff as usual. Been watching aapl too. Here is a 60 min chart that should target around 380. A nice H&S setup with a nice break of the neckline on Friday. Always appreciate your work. Thanks for putting this out there. You cannot see the left should on my time frame but it is there. Here is the link since disqus http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p51295184948&a=252774281&listNum=1.

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  2. Yay Idaho!  How are ya RTB?  Haven't seen you 'anywhere' for a while now.

    Oh yes... I just looked at my own 60 min. chart that covered a bit more time and I can see it.  Hadn't noticed it before, I guess because I was examining the weekly and daily scene more or less.  But you bet... it's there.  Of course some will argue that a H&S is not a H&S at all unless it's at the top of a move higher.  I used to think that.  But I've discovered that they seem to work just as well near the bottom or middle of a long leg.  So yeah, I appreciate you pointing that pattern out.

    I think that by the last week of March sometime we'll likely see a temporary bottom in AAPL.  355?  365?  Somewhere in there looks quite reasonable to me.  But before that happens we could very well also see some sort of short term bounce right at your target.  AAPL stops for a little refresher along it's journey, lol.

    Good to see ya bud.  I hope you are doing well.

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  3. truerangeballisticMarch 3, 2013 at 11:13 AM

    Been doing good AR. This past month has been especially good in my trading world. Revamped my approach, lol. I do look at your site frequently and always appreciate your insights. I hope you are doing well and always wish you the best.

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  4. Great article. "upset the aapl cart". Youre a genius if you came up with that one!

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  5. Curious where you weigh in on Aapl aside from the technical perspective?  The chart screams classic overbought H&S formation, the theory of which supports your number to within a couple bucks.  Additionally, at a P/E of 8 under most recent earnings you are within a buck.  Coincidence?  I think not.  Long term, I don't think they have been sitting on their thumbs.  They have all of the smart people.  Cook seems way too unimpressed with all of the negativity.  That's my take anyway.

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  6. Well I don't know if I came up with it but I used it in the last article as well, lol.  As my genius grandfather used to say: "I may not be the best dancer in the world but I have a heard of gold and I love onion rings."

    How's that for logic?

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  7. I don't follow fundamentals at all... never have.  AMZN is a good enough example of why they often make no sense at all.  The P/E on that one is something like 17,000 to 1.  Ridiculous.

    But... AAPL, that's a different story.  At least I know a tiny bit about their fundamentals.  Amazingly, with a low P/E and $100B in the bank (cash), I think that stock is certainly more sound than most of the rest are.  Yet I don't care about that... my belief being that whatever the situation is, it's already built into the charts and it's the charts that offer the true guidance.  I think you'll find that 99% of TA folks think the same way.

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  8.  Nice article AR! Looking at some charts I did notice that GOOG, IBM, AMZN, BAX, SPG all starting climbing back in November and are still climbing. Not sure if that means moving out of AAPL or what, but if you check their charts you can see that all their charts look similar.

    The money had to go somewhere. Didn't check Jan charts yet so see who the gainers were.

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  9. Thanks Blue.  I looked at some of the other the individual stocks in the $NDX to see if they supported the notion of that index falling any time soon.  And of course some do, some don't.  But did you know that if you want to get information from the exchange about what the weightings are for all 100 components you have to pay $10k a year for that info?  How greedy can they get?  That's like me trying to sell a basket of vegetables to you and you want to know how much of each type you're gonna get and I say to you "Gimme 10 grande and I'll tell ya".  How unbelievable is that?  So I found the data I was looking for somewhere else.  Not all of it, but the biggest group as seen in the picture below.  It's not a very good image, but a screenshot was all I could find.

    Anyway, I looked at those ones and wouldn't you know it, AMZN is right up there near the top of the pack with a P/E ratio of 4 bazillion:1.  Some of those names definitely look toppy but others might have some upside left.  It's very difficult to make a judgement based on them so I'll just go with the index itself for the best average.  After all, that's what it is, lol.

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  10.  Good sleuthing! imma gonna swipe that list. nice to have.

    bwahahahahaha. 10K a year. that's hilarious. thievers! all of 'em!

    I was just kind of curious as to what nasdaq stocks saw some 4th quarter ramp so starting looking at some. AMZN and GOOG the usual suspects. So i think money started leaving aapl last november already and starting moving into those two the most.

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  11.  meant microsoft not ibm... those are always synonymous to me.
    and spg is nyse. don't know whar that list came from that i looked up. musta been a combo of fourth quarter from both exchanges.

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  12. The list came from Proshares.  Even though the NASDAQ wants $10k for the info, ProShares 'has to' provide the weightings that their ETFs carry.  Bingo!.  True, it's not a complete list.

    Haha.  "Thievers".  I don't know what the wird means but I assume it's something along the lines of 'stealers'?

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  13.  so clevah of u !

    yes thievers...i make words up as i go along. exactamundo like stealers, except i think more nefarious.

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  14.  Note that the list of 30 issues accounts for almost 80% of the weighting in the $NDX

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  15. Duly noted.  Thanks for pointing that out JF.

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  16.  I had posted this on my blog some time back
    A glaring example can be seen in the case of Apple. Apple's gross
    margins on phones is over 60% leading to very impressive net margins,
    probably over 30% in case of iphones (just iphones not overall).
    However, Google Nexus 4 which exceeds capabilities of Iphone 5 is being
    sold at zero gross margins and probably negative net margins. That puts
    tremendous pressure on Apple's margins. If Apple's overall gross margins
    decline by 10-12% percentage points, not difficult considering the
    competition,  their net profit would fall by about 60-70%. That would
    give an EPS of around $15.00 a share. Taking traditional hardware sector
    multiples and adding their cash would make Apple fairly valued at
    around $250-$300. No longer a "Screaming buy" even at $700 as analysts
    would have you believe.

    If you add a couple of years where their earnings are high but declining that would make Apple fairly valued around $350


    Great article. I see now why you are so famous. Good nite.

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  17. Thank you for that FAM.  I can so easily understand now why AAPL may not be worth anywhere near the value its shares are currently trading at.  But I just don't do fundamentals, I don't really even know what to look for.  But when you explain it to me like that I can follow along real easy.  It sheds and entirely different light on AAPL than I was even aware of.  So for them to have 100 quadrillion dollars in the bank may just be a fleeting thing. I appreciate your insight on that.

    By the way, you inadvertently included a final sentence which was obviously meant for someone else.  I are not famous :-)

    Good nite.

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    ReplyDelete
  19. The top 8 compared over the last 6 months. Only GOOG has broken back to new highs after the recent short term slump, but that with bearish divergences. The rest are possibly working on lower highs, with ORCL and INTC already having put in lower lows (short term).

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  20. Thanks for your input HR.  I appreciate your take on that because as johnfull pointed out below, those top 30 components account for almost 80% of the entire $NDX and the top 7 (under AAPL) that you looked into account for 32.6%.  So what those 7 companies do has twice the impact that AAPL does.  So for sure we should be aware of what they are doing.  It's a bit too convenient to just look at AAPL and think we know for sure where the $NDX will be headed.  Having said that though, the ratio has been spectacular over the years in showing that as AAPL goes, the entire $NDX goes.  It should.

    Thanks again.

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  21. Big day today for AMZN, GOOG, ORCL, and INTC, with the latter two coming off of ST lower lows. You've got me very interested in the internal dynamics of the NDX, and if AAPL is leading the way down, I'm looking closely at ORCL and INTC for further immediate confirmation. GOOG as well, but from a very different point of view: how much more stretched can it get and will the very short term bearish divergences hold or not. 

    One might make the case the MSFT is at the top of an ascending triangle and that a breakout there could signal higher prices in the near term. QCOM is moving higher in a very positive way with good technical confirmation, but I've still got CSCO on a daily momentum sell signal . . .

    All glamour names really, great for the retail sales desks, and a perfect combination to move the index, and do so, as you say, with AAPL still moving down. (Your target zone is looking more and more likely.)

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  22. Good feedback.  Clearly aapl has to come up with the next big thing or use some of that cash to buy a company who comes up with the next big thing.  Otherwise they go the way of microsoft.

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  23. Jason @ChartLearning:twitter  points to the Jan 2012 gap as support (~410-440)

    420 also is support on the daily chart S1 ... and then S2 407 below that

    385 is S1 support on the weekly chart

    how far can the Apple fall from the tree? weekly chart shows no oversold extreme, nor negative divergence.

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  24. Can there be any doubt about it HR?  The other top big names in the $NDX are being injected all the morphine they can handle just to keep that f'king $NDX from collapsing, and to make it rise if they can muster enough juice to make that happen.  It takes the top 7 companies under AAPL to rise 2.5% each just to account for a 5% drop in AAPL.  Are the clowns who are creating this bizarre illusion actually going to try to goose those stocks another 8% each just to account for the 16% drop that probably still lies ahead for AAPL?  And all that would do would be to keep the NDX flat as it has been since Jan. 2.  How in hell are they going to make the $NDX rise at all unless they pour even more juice than that into the others?  What if AAPL falls another 30% instead of 16%.

    Nope, I'm stickin' to my guns on this one.  I think what I wrote in the article holds true.  I guess that's why I wrote it, lol.  The thing that really has me guessing now is 'what if they can hold the NDX flat until AAPL finds a bottom?'.  You know what I think happens?  I think AAPL would come roaring back sharply and the steam comes exploding out of the others.  They start to collapse and the money flows back into AAPL, in a losing effort. The net result would be that AAPL puts in a terrific rise and the ratio rises and the $NDX tanks in spite.

    BTW, thanks for taking so much interest in this study.

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  25. Lots of contrasting signals there with the top 7 (after AAPL) that basically indicate indecision, confirming the broadening megaphone pattern you highlight.

    As you also point out, those patterns are not all that good at providing guidance on the direction of the eventual breakout, but they do give us nice widening boundaries reflecting ever increasing skittishness that can be used as entry and stop loss points.

    I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a head fake higher first. This market has been murder to trade with lots of whipsaws, and when you combine that with retail speculation that is more than willing to chase, you've got real ramping potential for shorts (good thing <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-04/short-sales-fall-53-with-u-s-bull-market-starting-fifth-year.html>short interest is at a 5 year low</a>, otherwise I'd say firestorm potential).

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  26. Even though I envisioned a pullback in the $NDX, as seen in its daily chart above (or here) I could have been wrong and the $NDX will head up to touch the top of the broadening triangle again.  In the meantime AAPL continues to tank and money, gobs of money, gets thrown at the top 3 or 4 or 7 or 9 issues in the $NDX in order for that all to come together.  All of that is possible I guess before it all comes shattering apart.  Because it will def. fly all to pieces at some point in the not too distant future.

    And then I remember my monthly "insanely bullish" chart that I shared with you that sees the S&P at 1885 by Sept. of 2017.  Jesus Christ, that scenario is still playing out 'exactly' as that chart showed you know?  Damn... that count I had on that chart is playing out to a tee.  Surely it cannot continue?

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  27. Needless to say, yesterday's short term continuation daily sell signal was reversed today by an IT continuation daily buy. Continuation signals coming at the later stages of a move are riskier than those coming closer to initial reversal points, of course, and I've got other indicators raising serious doubts about today's rally suggesting that it may be a bull trap. Considering where we are in the cycle off of the 2009 lows, it could be a trap of considerable proportions . . . 

    . . . tough market.

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  28. A trap..with a battlefield nuke attached?
    --

    From what I've watched across the last few years, in any first cycle lower...the lower bollinger is a very natural place for any first wave to floor.

    Right now that is sp'1350,, but that will be rising in the coming weeks.

    By May, we're probably looking at sp'1400/25 - which is kinda an interesting level.
    -

    Any hopes of anything <1350, ...surely, right off the probability curve right now.

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  29. Without comment except to say that this is the inflationary nightmare scenario where the bankers win and 10% of the population of the world dies of starvation.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&yr=15&mn=0&dy=0&id=p86505146140&a=209481633&r=1362531803224&cmd=print

    Without question the lower scenario is more likely.  But really, that lower scenario might just be the first half of the upper one.  It could go either way and I wouldn't doubt if it went the route seen in the upper chart.  I just don't doubt it at all now that I've seen what the bankers are willing to do.

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  30. Well US stocks have officially decoupled from the euro and pretty much all other markets.

    Interesting article about short sales from Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-04/short-sales-fall-53-with-u-s-bull-market-starting-fifth-year.html

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  31. With Bernanke having created the largest meth lab in the history of mankind and he's feeding that crap out into the population of the the entire planet with plans to kill every living thing with his form of "kindness", one can't help but to consider that maybe the insane bastard is going to get his way after all.  That outcome would look something like this:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&yr=15&mn=0&dy=0&id=p86505146140&a=209481633

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  32. Who would have said? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$XEU&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p18148377621

    On the other hand, it's not like it's the first time it's happened. ;-) http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83231159257

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  33. HR, your first chart sure supports the theory that the American indices might be looking like a real hot investment for European money seeking action at some point if the Euro starts to really crash.  If the European markets start to tank along with the Euro I think there would be a flood of money over to the North American markets.  But as of tonight the $DAX:EURO chart looks exactly the same at the one you provided.  It's just basically showing that 'all' equities markets have been rising relative to the Euro since the Euro's peak in early Feb.  But if Europe comes unglued and their equities markets were to start to collapse right along with their currencies, watch out.  The money would come rocketing over here very quickly I think.

    But I'm having a bit of a difficult time envisioning the conditions it would take for the European equities markets and the Euro to drop in tandem.  Oh wait, all that would take would be a surge in the USD.  So if the USD were to surge all that means is that the EURO would be falling relative to it.  So the European equities markets might just be cruising along in neutral and if that were the case then the US markets would look attractive as hell.  Thanks for the thought provoking chart.

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  35. Sirs, wouldn't the hot money be in risk-off mode, funneled straight into USTs and possibly European bonds/bunds? as opposed to US equities.

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  36. That's so hard to say westcoast.  Who knows for sure because there's so damned much capital involved that I think a lot of it would fly damned near everywhere.  I'd think it would also partly depend on how it all unravels, how fast it happens and how much panic is involved.  My suggestion that some of it would reach the NA markets was speculation as much as anything else.  But if I'm were a European and I was seeing my stock market crashing and my currency crashing 'relative to the US markets and US currency', I think it would be a reasonably good move to get some of my capital out of Europe.  But I'm no more certain about what would happen than the next guy.

    ReplyDelete
  37.  into Gold perhaps?

    ReplyDelete
  38. Hola amigo.  Well that sure makes the best sense doesn't it.  If the bastages keep suppressing the price of that stuff you have to kinda wonder if it would ever pay off though.  But as JP Morgan himself said, "gold is the 'only' money".

    Are you keeping busy pardner?  We don't see you posting much 'anywhere' these days.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Hi AR
    I'm too busy at work thee days & I need to be on the ball- can't do those all-nighters anymore.
    That's one reason I'm focusing only on AUDJPY & a few associated pairs 
    It would seem though that we are approaching a key point in time, so I'll be monitoring closely the next few days as best I can.
    But having said that, I have to go to bed soon!
    keep up the great work you do here & I always enjoy the banter at your pub.
    Speak soon Amigo.
    DK

    ReplyDelete
  40. That's what I thought.  No worries brother, just know that we kinda miss you when you're gone.  You're one of the all-round best currencies guys I know and now that the world's attention is slowly being drawn to that sector your input is going to be appreciated by a whole lot more people than it has been in the past.

    Stay safe and we'll see you when you have time. 

    ReplyDelete
  41. USDJPY

    Hello!
    I love you, won't you tell me your count?

    A new high?
    Seriously?
    Does this mean an extended fifth is actually still a valid count?
    Technically that brutal correction last week could still have been a five-waver c of an ii of extended fifth, and this iii.

    Although, I'm having trouble reconciling a count on USDJPY with DK's most awesome count on AUDJPY.
    It all makes my head spin, so I think I'll head to bed.  :)

    Cheers amigos and amigas!

    ReplyDelete
  42. Hey there Greg.  You've been missing in action!  None of the blogs have seen you around much, lol.

    Geez bud, that USD:YEN look to be in a mighty uptrend that has no intention of reversing any time soon.  The Yen might be due for a bounce but the USD might continue higher as well (like if the Euro fell more), which could result in a 'net' change of 'still higher' for the pair.  Actually I think the Yen is trying to put in a bottom soon but the bounce will probably be a messy sideways 4th wave that might last a month or two.  But net-net I think most of the Yen pairs are in trouble as long as the Yen is in trouble.

    ReplyDelete
  43. We only think we know how to play poker. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  44. Hey AR, yes, I've been working on my tranquility which means more sleep and some calming time.  It's actually really helped my sense of calm and ability to trade in a calm place.  Still lurking, but figured my count was dead for awhile in USDJPY.  The book positivity talks about people who really flourish have a positive to negative ratio of 3:1 in their thoughts, energy, feelings, time, etc.  And if it's like 2:1 the benefits don't show up really.  It's compared to a boiling point ... has to reach 3:1 for true effects to be felt.  So anyone who frequents troll-ville as you figured out long ago is having their ratio take a serious hit.

    When all of a sudden I realized last night I was sitting around missing the beginning of a likely third wave in an extended fifth which I thought was dead a week ago.  Well, you can imagine my rather untranquil feelings at that point.  Missing ANOTHER THIRD WAVE?!  After 5 months of stalking the beast every waki@tommillard:disqus P.g moment?!  Tranquility left me for a night.  HAHAHA.

    Here's my revived count now that we have a new high.  Target 107.  That's the extended fifth target which is 1.6 times the waves 1-3 (77 to 89 is 12, so 1.6 x 12=19, and 88 + 19 = 107).  Hopefully that was (i) of iii, and we pull back to [iv] of (i) in this (ii) of like 94, and then iii could get to 102ish.  The 4-hr DMI clued me in that the buy was at 93 ... half way up good old (i) of iii. 

    Anyway, if this turns out to be the count, then there is a nice juicy move left for those of us who are 3 days late catching a clue.  Just gotta figure out when (ii) looks donesky.  DMI should help with that.  9% could still be like a factor of 8 if it's predictable (a double every 3%).  Also, if it turns out to be the count, I'll just fly up to Alberta, book a night at a hotel, give you a ring, and meet you in a bar for a beer and a toast.

    As far as reconciling it with DK's AUDJPY count, I think they both can happen, perhaps.  While he's counted a bigger degree fifth wave down for USDJPY, this count precludes that, but to get the 50% drop in AUDJPY that is his main focus, that can still happen with a 10% wave 4 drop in USDJPY and a 40% drop in AUDUSD wave 3.  So, the big drop in AUDJPY doesn't require a 40% drop in USDJPY (which I don't see happening), but the heavy lifting could be done by AUDUSD.

    Cheers!

    P.S.  It was the tranquility that got me to this realization only 3 days late instead of over the Holidays I was like 9 days late realizing the third of third was roaring down the tracks.

    P.P.S.  I realize I've been counting this beast every day for 5 months ... and was grieving it's end (Minor 3) -- it was such a beautiful count too, until I realized Holy Shite Batman, I don't think it's dead yet!  ONE bad day did not kill it, and it bounced right back off the green ichimoku line quite nicely.  The 4-hr DMI was a buy 3 days ago ... and look at her fly!

    ReplyDelete
  45.  I think the Euro is in a ii of 3rd down ... maybe we have 2-3 weeks or so since wave i was 23 days.

    Interestingly, a coworker of mine who is originally from Ireland asked me how I thought his family (still in Ireland) could hedge themselves "in case" the Euro goes down hard.  I'd mentioned currencies to him months ago, and he wasn't that interested in the huge movement potential there.  But now they are worried.  That was just a 6% drop recently, and 20% total.  I showed him an Elliott Wave prediction -- if 3 is 1.6 times big 2, we'd be looking at a target of 0.98.  Nobody can truly believe these things are that predictable, but they really could be that predictable in this case. 

    Another coworker said, "No way!"  But GBP dropped 40% in 2008, AUD dropped 40%.  Surely 30% is within the realm.  I told him they could open forex.com and just go 1:1 (no leverage) and buy EURUSD, after ii finishes.  I think many must be buying the US market also, but I wouldn't recommend that -- why wipe out currency advantage with the HUGE risk in an equity crash.  If you want to make more money just increase the leverage!!

    He'd asked about gold and silver, and that might be the way to go also, but I think the jury is out on that escaping a deflationary collapse before the eventual spike.  Or I'm not making bets on it yet.

    Figure I can buy gold later -- before the dollar collapses.

    ReplyDelete
  46.  Isn't that the truth.  And the house is always changing how they cheat.

    ReplyDelete
  47. USDJPY some funnymentals -- this article makes the point that if you compare Japanese exports as a percentage of world trade now (15%) vs. 1990 (70%) and the currency is stonger now than then.  So it has ALOT farther to fall to bring these ratios back to where they were before it got stonger than makes any sense anymore.  I'd never seen this before.


    http://www.businessinsider.com/englander-the-pound-and-the-yen-have-more-to-fall-2013-3

     

    ReplyDelete
  48.  Thanks for your blog, mate, it's been an excellent resource.  I'll post my latest USDJPY count over there so it's together with that discussion.

    ReplyDelete
  49. I would like to take the opportunity to clear the air about something here in Switzerland (neutral territory). I truly hope AR doesn't mind, and as a blog owner he can delete it.

    Last Thursday I got a message from SJ accusing me of giving out his real name and email to FAM. Apparently she had messaged him and she had implied (or he inferred) from her message that someone had told her his real name and email. Which totally freaked him out. I am pretty sure he noticed she and I having some fledgling friendliness to one another lately on twitter and some round-about communication on her blog regarding the SJ/Blue shorthand communication that she was intensely curious about, so he made assumptions that were not true.

    He immediately sent me a message accusing me of giving her his real name / email as I am one of the few who know it. We had become trading buddies over time running ideas past one another. Hence the shorthand language.

    Soooo, taking SJ's message at face value i got pretty mad at FAM for saying to him that she got his name/email from me, as that is how SJs message to me read. When in reality none of that was the case. She knew his name/email from his registering on his blog. Which never occurred to me (nor SJ) until AR pointed that out to me after all this SHTF and then FAM pointed out the same thing to SJ. I was under the impression that blog owners only had valid ISPs.

    In hindsight I should have just said to SJ to go back and check his facts before accusing me of something I did not do, however i was still operating under HIS message to me, which inferred that she got his name/email from me. In hindsight FAM should have prefaced her conversation with him telling him HOW she knew his personal info instead of letting him assume she got it from me, one of the few who know it who has been talking to her. In hindsight she should have asked him if it was okay to address him by his "real" name as some people don't want you to do that. I don't. I will offer it if I want to, but prefer to go by my blog name until such time both parties are comfortable doing real names.

    FAM didn't understand the protocol of privacy, but I am sure she learned something. SJ freaked out by what HE inferred from her message to him, and I got reamed/blamed because he didn't go check the facts, so in turn I didn't go check the facts. I also learned something, never take a message at face value, go back and check the path leading up to it first.

    That is all i have to say on the subject. Wishing you all happy trading. Gonna take some time away from blogs (which has been a relatively short time actually, nine months to be exact) as I am burned out with it all. I have always gone my own way and have done my own thing which is more my comfort zone.

    Thank you AR for letting me post this, for however briefly it stays here.

    Blue

    ReplyDelete
  50. Just to add that I am intensely suspicious and untrusting of anyone on the internet (and also in real life I might add).

     I
    have no idea who they are nor what their ulterior agenda may be. I have
    found that some people are just not what they project. Some people are
    several different people. Some people have ulterior motives couched in
    friendliness. This happens in real life, but even more so on the internet. As I know that I can be extremely gullible, I mainly stick to myself, family, or a few close friends as I have been burned more than once over the years but trusting a person too soon.

    So yeah, trusting anyone you meet ever, but especially on the internet, takes quite some time to establish.

    okay. think i'm done now. thanks again AR.

    ReplyDelete
  51. You're welcome Blue.  Obviously this is a huge issue to you and since you're looking for quiet a space where you can tell your side of things, well what can I do?  I'm not a tyrant nor am I interested in policing comments except in the worst cases of trollism.  So I have no intention of deleting your comment, no harm done.

    I'm not going to discuss it here though, since the issue didn't originate here and has nothing to do with this blog.  For now I'm focused on that APPL SAUCE that's brewing in the charts above and trying to get answers as to why in hell the $NDX hasn't crashed right along with AAPL like it should have.  I've got a phone call in to Bernanke but the chickenshit hasn't returned my call yet.  And I do want answers.

    ReplyDelete
  52. You're welcome Blue.  Obviously this is a huge issue to you and since you're looking for quiet a space where you can tell your side of things, well what can I do?  I'm not a tyrant nor am I interested in policing comments except in the worst cases of trollism.  So I have no intention of deleting your comment, no harm done.

    I'm not going to discuss it here though, since the issue didn't originate here and has nothing to do with this blog.  For now I'm focused on that APPL SAUCE that's brewing in the charts above and trying to get answers as to why in hell the $NDX hasn't crashed right along with AAPL like it should have.  I've got a phone call in to Bernanke but the chickenshit hasn't returned my call yet.  And I do want answers.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Greg, you need a break brother.  Here, jump on my magic carpet and let's go for a ride.  Something I wanna show ya.  First this.  Full Screen.  And then we're goin' here for a relaxing little journey.  Then take a big toke and off you go back to the mountains vid.  And then go the second one again.  Keep doing that until you find the meaning of life.  And once you've found the meaning of life please come back here and explain it to me because I can get just as freakin' stressed as you seem to be at the moment.

    Haha... at the very least taking little journeys like these really are great for a person's soul. 

    ReplyDelete
  54.  Hey, thanks for the journey into peace and beauty and tranquility!  Thanks for putting together that nice tour ... I think I'll take that trip often :)

    I'll definitely let you know if I discover the meaning of life after these trips.

    Speaking of things to calm one's mind ... I paced my daughter in a 5K race today, and that was just an awesome experience.  The girl has no idea of her potential.  She won a race with an age group that went 3 years older.  I faded with 0.3 to go (age caught up to me), and she took off and passed the one girl left ahead of her.  She wasn't even breathing hard (although I usually pace by listening to her breathing, but since mine was so loud this time it was hard to hear hers, LOL), doesn't train, and ran a 23:00, and she's in 6th grade.  I said, "think how fast you could go if you trained a little!"  She said, "yeah but I won without training, so when I no longer win I will start training."  Alrighty, then!  Mostly it was fun to share tips and help her along (being a wind buffer, and stride tips, and encouraging her).

    Anyway, thanks again for sharing that journey.

    ReplyDelete
  55. I was on a 2 night trip with a gf up vancouver island, I couldn't sleep so I turned on the TV and it ws on TCM. Strangely enough you were on the TV, papa boule.

    ReplyDelete
  56. It's still pretty amazing to me that in that movie, made before computer graphics, they were derailing and crashing real locomotives.

    ReplyDelete
  57. Social mood it's deteriorating ... and it can be seen in the blogosphere also, eh?  Tis sad what goes on out there.

    ReplyDelete
  58.  Yoooooouuuuuuuuuuu .... you're funny!

    Ever see Analyze this?  The above is said like that.

    ReplyDelete
  59. Yes I did.  DeNiro is one of my favorite actors.  So is Pacino.  And recently I've really started to appreciate the incredible screen presence that Chaz Palminteri has.  I had seen him in numerous gangster type movies and always marveled at what a totally convincing job he did as an actor of playing the role of a seriously scary badass.  Very impressive acting and I never even knew his real name.  Then only recently I watched an older movie, Bronx Tale and man, his performance absolutely blew me away.  What an incredibly gifted actor.  Believability... he just exudes believability.

    ReplyDelete
  60. What do you consider as "up island"?  I've only been as far north as Nanaimo and never over to the Tofino side.  How far north on the island have you been?  I've heard it's just as gorgeous up there as it is everywhere else.

    ReplyDelete
  61. Just a reminder folks, on March 13th Disqus is going to impose their Disqus 2012 model on us.  I've left the set-up as you have preferred for as long as I can but soon there will be no choice.  I don't think it's any big deal since we've more or less gotten used to the new format on other bolgs.

    ReplyDelete
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  63. I've demanded a full refund, but so far.. I've heard nothing back.

    ReplyDelete
  64. Hello AR. Well, its Wednesday night, are you having fun so far this month?

    I'm not surprised we're in the 1550s, and I am certainly seeking a new down wave soon, but...why would it be any different than the previous ones? After all, the Fed is still printing, and unless you don't believe the POMO money is propping up the market, then by default, even if we do retrace lower to 1470/25...we'll then start up again..and just push to another new high.

    I don't really say it much, but I do see so many good chartists out there - hell, I'd even include Mr Daneric, but what if we're in the sp'1700s later this year?

    What are all the doomer bear chartists going to say then?

    I've a new hyper-bullish scenario, and thats looking for sp'2500 in early 2016. Can you imagine what the doomers will be saying then if we're at those levels?
    --

    I still can't stomach going long the indexes, so instead have been playing Silver and OIl via SLV/USO. Am 7/7 winners since I started meddling in those this past week. Yet, holding long positions overnight, urghh, it remains almost as sickeningly annoying as losing digital $.

    Good wishes !

    ---
    *attached chart...is indeed the 'hyper-bullish' scenario. I've not even posted it on my own site yet. You've always been a good supporter, so I'm posting it here first.

    I guess the 5 giant waves should be labelled A-E, since they overlap, right? Regardless, this is one 'crazy talk' scenario that I am keeping in mind whilst the Fed POMO program continues.

    ReplyDelete
  65. http://media.chicagobooth.edu/mediasite/Viewer/?peid=f15d95d054e8442ab0cc1c60321383101d

    Another Kyle Bass video on Japan.

    ReplyDelete
  66. @papa Boule Is it time to "Short all things"?!

    ReplyDelete
  67. Hi PD.  Yup, back in November I decided to allow myself a little journey over to the dark side to see what I could see.  I didn't have the interest nor the courage at the time to post it anywhere but I did share it with a couple of people, like HighRev.  But here we are now, 4 months later and it doesn't look like my dark vision was out of whack one iota.  In the nightmarish scenario where the bankers win and are able to hold rates down by deploying whatever wizardry they come up with that the world hasn't even heard of yet, then I can see SPX at 1885 sometime in 2017.  Here's what that looks like as I drew it up more or less just using 'standard' Fib percentages.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&yr=15&mn=0&dy=0&id=p86505146140&a=209481633">SPX Monthly in the scenario where deflation is successfully deferred for another 4 years.  I am fully accepting this scenario as being possible.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Hi PD.  Yup, back in November I decided to allow myself a little journey over to the dark side to see what I could see.  I didn't have the interest nor the courage at the time to post it anywhere but I did share it with a couple of people, like HighRev.  But here we are now, 4 months later and it doesn't look like my dark vision was out of whack one iota.  In the nightmarish scenario where the bankers win and are able to hold rates down by deploying whatever wizardry they come up with that the world hasn't even heard of yet, then I can see SPX at 1885 sometime in 2017.  Here's what that looks like as I drew it up more or less just using 'standard' Fib percentages.
    SPX Monthly in the scenario where deflation is successfully deferred for another 4 years.  I am fully accepting this scenario as being possible.

    ReplyDelete
  69.  Even with two 'moderate' corrections this year, you do realise we'd probably close in the 1700/1800s..THIS year.

    So...just imagine what that would bode for 2016/17.
    --

    I shall hope such outlooks are merely ironic signs at 'the top'. Yet, many were saying 1500s when we were 1200/1300..and many said 'too high'.
    --

    The paper printers are so far...in control.

    ReplyDelete
  70. Worth seeing, although it was a little annoying not to be able to see the charts at the presentation.
    --

    Most notable perhaps..the issue of how the Japanese have 'no love' for their neighbours. The demographic timebomb is of course too late to reverse now, baring mass immigration..which they won't do.

    Too few babies...but then, many other developed nations are all going this way.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Well I took another look at my chart and apparently I don't see 1700-1800 as being very likely 'this year'.  But as I showed in a couple of articles about a month ago, I do recognize that the markets have been rising since Jan. 2nd at the rate of 255% per year which of course is pure insanity.  10% would be a heck of a good year by any standards but 255% is just a bit excessive don't you think?

    I see 1885 by late 2017 as being possible in the wildest of scenarios where the bankers have clear sailing from today forward and all the credit issues in Europe somehow come to an end this weekend, never to return for 4 more years.  I'm not even going to ask how that could be possible because logically it is impossible.  For example, there is absolutely no way Italy's debt crisis is going to be somehow magically solved with just more Euro printing.  If they were to try that then surely the Euro's upward path vs. the USD would have to turn around.  They can't have it both ways.  Not only that, but it appears the Italians are not in the mood to bend over and take it from the bankers Greek style, like the Greeks did.  And with the rising star of Bepe Grillo now in full swing I think Italy is going to become a real serious problem for the Eurodollar and Eurozone fairly shortly here.  Nonetheless, the impossible is happening right before our very eyes for the time being.  Several "risk off" indicator out there is saying equities are absolutely full of shit up at these levels.  Precious metals for example, oil, copper.  So we'll see.  At the very least one of these days the markets are going to go into a correction of 0.25% if Goldman will allow it.  Nine days in a row is getting a little long in the tooth.  We'll see.

    ReplyDelete
  72.  ahh yes, Beppe Grillo, he sure is an interesting character. If he gains power, would be fascinating to see if he does tell the bankers to go stick it.

    Did you see the 1998 stand up video, on his comments on banks, gold.. etc?
    --

    As for the market targets by year end...
    Again, I can only say, that so long as the POMO continues, this nonsense is surely going to ramp beyond even the dreams of the deluded maniacs on clown finance TV.

    Say we pull back to 1470 this spring..then we go into the mid 1600s..then another pull back in autumn, maybe 1500..but we'd still close the year in the upper 1700s, if not 1800s.

    I think 1900s in spring 2014 are very realistic right now..which coming from me of course, is utter hillarity.
    -

    We got quad'opex this Friday, and a big pomo, lets see if the maniacs can get a weekly close in the 1570s to give the doomer bears something to think about this weekend.
    --

    ReplyDelete
  73. With opex this Friday and a big pomo then sure, I guess why wouldn't the maniacs take the Dow up another 2 days and make it an even 11 in a row?  Just on a side note, why do you refer to them now as "doomer" bears.  Isn't "bears" good enough?  No reason to be inflammatory about it, lol.

    ReplyDelete
  74.  I like the term 'doomer bears', I guess some decide to read it as negative, but people will read it as they like.
    --
    goodnight.

    ReplyDelete
  75. Haha, indeed the entire island is a temperate beauty and I've been around a lot of it.. the night in question however was in Nanaimo :)

    ReplyDelete
  76. Thanks.  Some day I might move to Saltspring.  It all depends on the lottery gods.

    ReplyDelete
  77. AUDUSD is getting up to 1.04, and soon will be in a nice target range for a possible abc of ii to be complete.
    That i down from 1.06 to 1.015 was a 5-waver.

    Will iii be next?  If so, how long will ii last?
    Oh, the suspense!

    ReplyDelete
  78.  some currency pairs like AUDUSD are getting close to a possible iii set up.

    ReplyDelete
  79. Waiting for a tag of that trendline coming down for a ride to parity.

    ReplyDelete
  80. Nice chart. Yes I'm looking forward to the upcoming plunge!
    EURUSD is likely heading for a similar ii up and then a juicy iii plunge.
    USDJPY I think is in a (ii) down wrapping up soon (94ish?) and then a delicious (iii) of an extended fifth from say 94 to 102. That would be 800 pips, and the (i) was about 500 (91 to 96).

    ReplyDelete
  81. Thanks for sharing this one! I watched his first video months ago and was blown away by the fundamentals in Japan and how mathematically the yen has to get trashed. He says it's the clearest thing he's ever seen in his investing career. I can see why.



    For example, Japan has more people retiring than entering the workforce. So, 95% of the bonds are held by institutions and retirement funds, and they are NET SELLERS AND WILL FOREVER MORE BE SELLERS. So, who's going to buy the bonds? Their central banks by printing money. And what's going to happen to rates with all the selling? They will go up. And what will holders of bonds do when they start falling in value? According to a survey, they will sell. Japan is no longer self-funding now. China is going to continue to boycott Japanese goods. Their exports have plummeted, and have gone negative. He says this is secular, not cyclical. He thinks the yen will be headed north of 250 at some point. He also makes the point that in Mexico the wealthy got out of dodge before it collapsed in 1995, and they big corporations are doing that -- massive purchases of foreign companies by Japanese companies in the past year.



    I think shorting the yen is the holy grail trade.

    ReplyDelete
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