Tuesday, June 12, 2012

NYSI Adds Fuel To The Argument For A Bounce

After today's strong action, action which will surely make bears think "this has been a corrective wave that's now finished", the market internals data continues to strengthen, adding to the argument for perhaps more upside than most are envisioning.  Please don't misunderstand, I'm still as bearish as ever but have come to appreciate the wisdom in "just forgetting what I know" and focusing on "what I see".

And what we're seeing today, augmenting the signal from the weekly NYMO which I detailed here, is more strength as it has become apparent that the NYSI (a derivative of NYMO which tends to lag by a day or three) is now issuing a buy signal as well.  I know, I know... how could a person possibly see anything bullish in today's market?  Especially someone like yours truly who has been afflicted with the disease known as "bearish bias" since the 1970s?    But it is what it is.  I'm just reporting what I'm seeing here friends and what I'm seeing is that deep inside the market, hidden from normal view, there are more stocks willing to participate in upside than there were last week.  That's not to say that the market internals "aren't weak"... they are.  But they are also at levels where market lows often occur.  And they are improving... faster with each day.

Normally my nose isn't this red.  Pressure... you know?
I don't want to speculate on what is giving the market this strength.  I don't want to know whether or not it's a short squeeze, a squeeze that could possibly get much more excruciating overnight.  I don't particularly care any more whether or not it's another deliberate 'goose job'.  A ramp job that put the market into a condition where bears will surely recognize the potential for a beautiful looking H&S pattern that 'must surely fail because it's textbook'.  I can certainly see that potential H&S as well.  It's a beauty alright, but until any H&S is actually completed with the breaking of the neckline, it's just that... pure conjecture.  Fortunately, of all the pattern 'traps' that are possible, that is one I've never been caught by for the simple reason that for some reason or other I've always been overtly aware of how often a potential H&S just seems to vanish into the waves as time progresses.

Today I'd like to show the daily chart of the Summation Index for the NYSE.  Just as a matter of explanation, NYSI is actually derived from the McClellan Oscillator.  To plagiarize the excellent description as detailed by StockCharts, the "McClellan Summation Index is a breadth indicator derived the McClellan Oscillator, which is a breadth indicator based on Net Advances (advancing issues less declining issues). The Summation Index is simply a running total of the McClellan Oscillator values. Even though it is called a Summation Index, the indicator is really an oscillator that fluctuates above/below zero. As such, signals can be derived from bullish/bearish divergences, directional movement and center line crossovers".

NYSI Daily - Click here for a full blown version that includes several indicators not visible in the version above.

To add to the evidence, let's also revisit that signal which we alluded to in Sunday's post, "NYMO Weekly Issues Buy Signal".

NYMO Weekly - Click here for a full blown version

So the evidence mounts that the market appears to be gaining some internal strength.  In no way does that imply "how much" strength though, nor how far it intends to climb.  I think it's just a simple matter of the market perhaps having fallen "too far, too fast".  And from that perspective a bounce is absolutely warranted.  Nobody should be surprised by it nor particularly angry about it.  I don't pretend to know how far it will bounce but suffice it to say that according to Elliott Wave rules, this bounce could indeed retrace the entire decline off the April 2nd high.  In no way would I suggest that's what's in the cards though.  In fact, my personal gut feel is that a retracement of perhaps 61.8% would be perfectly normal.  That would take the S&P back up to the range of 1360-65 and that's exactly what I think would make the most sense since solid resistance resides right in that area.

First though, we need to see if the markets actually do what these indicators are suggesting they will do... rise!  I think this evening's overnight action on the futures markets could end up being one of the more important sessions in this entire month.

CONCLUSION: The market is showing that it wants to rise.  In the event that's what happens, what we must then quickly get focused on would be a reversal of the signals discussed above.  Because if these indicators at some point start to warn of a pending top, and that top is going to be lower than the April high (which it surely will I would have to think), the bears are most likely going to get one of the best entry points they're likely to see in a year of trading.  There will be others, but the one I'm referring to is one we don't want to miss out on.  Stay tuned, it seems the market action just might be developing quite logically.  What a nice change of pace that would be.

Wishing you all the best...
==============================

UPDATE: Thursday, June 14, 2012

Just for the heck of it I thought I'd throw this chart out there.  Normally when we see a chart like this our first inclination would be to give an honest assessment of what we think the next move is.  It's an especially effective exercise when we don't know what the stock, commodity or product is.  I've drawn in my own opinion about where it's heading next but please don't let that affect your own vision because I'm just making an educated guess like anyone else.  Where would you say this pattern is going next? 

Click here for a live and updating version





......

443 comments:

  1. AR...I gotta say...you're pretty convincing...BTW...you are the Ron Jeremy of chart porn...Those charts of yours lay everything out in a totally understandable way...A few folks, including myself, got a bit ahead and shoulders of ourselves. Thanks for letting me know, cuz Lord knows, I'm more than a little dangerous than the average bear when it comes to shorting when it might be less than wise. Thanks for an outstanding article...and those charts...I have to go get a cigarette now.

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  2. Thanks Scotty.  You have no idea how rewarding it is for me to be able to post an article like this, one that I know will be very unpopular with my friends the bears, and not get shot down in flames for it.  In my entire life of writing (a full one year now, lol) I've never been able to comfortably post an article that disclosed that I was having dark and evil bullish thoughts.  I don't know where this 'courage' is coming from but I suspect it's coming from the long overdue realization that when I see something that looks bullish, then damn it, it's bullish (in spite of the $trillions of reasons I am fully expecting an ultimate bearish outcome).  I also think this particular article is very reasonable in that I'm only showing evidence.  I didn't make it up, the stocks on the NYSE did.  It is what it is.  Neither am I declaring anything outlandish about the 'amount' of upside.  I don't know, although I think the area of 1360-65 is very reasonable.  Thanks for checking it out buddy, and for your constant support.  I really appreciate it.

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  3. I completely agree with your analysis for long term investors... you do not get a chance like this every year as far as oversold conditions. If this is Wave 2 then I would expect the internals to begin to wain around that +500 level on the RASI.  The job of wave two is to get everyone believing it is for real, thus it might have to be a really high wave 2 just like last year around same period.  So on a real bearish note what if... the largest buyer of treasuries in the last 4 years stops buying (FED) and let's just suppose that their buying of treasuries created liquidity that makes stocks go up (just hypothecating here)...and to add to this wonderful concoction of a mess we have that the public has been also buying so called safe instruments...so my general shit storm of a scenario is they don't do QE and now treasuries and stocks are set to fall at the same time...and the only beneficiary aset class will be the US dollar...after all it is a debt problem---kind of what bob prechter thinks---so maybe i am stealing from him---but this just makes sense to me on the "set-up" for a very large and fast bear market

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  4. "If this is Wave 2 then I would expect the internals to begin to wain
    around that +500 level on the RASI.  The job of wave two is to get
    everyone believing it is for real, thus it might have to be a really
    high wave 2 just like last year around same period.
    "

    I agree with you 100% on that Oneiron.  That's what I was referring to in the "Conclusion".  I think you're bang on the money... the next sell signal should be a real money-maker for all the bears.  I'll keep you updated.

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  5. 1360s...a touch out of range this week. I suppose its viable next week...but hey, I think the Greeks are going to vote for the crazy lunatics..so. market won't like that.

    Late Thursday, 1350/55....re-short level.
    --
    A wave'2 from 1266 to 1350s...yep...thats EXACTLY what I was looking for..we're going to get it.

    *look for retail data to be used as the excuse tomorrow for a move to 1335/40. 

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  6. Great article - I will be following your comments as this develops.  Even if the market goes down hard tomorrow, your call is well thought out and supported by the evidence.

    I also have suffered from failing to recognize, or recognizing and then ignoring bullish setups.  It's been great practice at timing the market, waiting for the opportunities to short as the market churns higher, shorting and then getting out quickly before the bull resumes.  Always telling myself that the next short entry will be the one that turns into a swing trade.  Then when the market finally does turn I sell too early because that's the only way I've been able to make money on the way up. 

    Two things I am trying to work on now.  1) Trade with the intermediate trend.  2) Allow the trade to make money when you have managed to make a good entry.   Easier said than done, but I think a more balanced approach like you are presenting is a step in the right direction.

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  7. AR, that's a very convincing argument you make there.  I'm glad I dropped in to read it!  Thanks

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  8. Thanks JBB and ducksoup.  I don't have any agenda to "convince" people of "anything".  I simply present observations that I think are meaningful and therefore hopefully "helpful".  They're observations that I personally do use for those reasons.  That's about it really :-)

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  9. Throw a little old school TA at the VEU, GDOW, and AUD/JPY and you maybe have a pennant formation with a great flagpole indicating consolidation with more up side coming. However that may be just a continuation of a 4, because it has plenty of room before it violates any wave 4 rules. Then maybe we get a 5 down, and then maybe the big wave 2 ABC up, which may be an Intermediate degree wave, not just Minor.

    Wave 2s are supposed to be vigorous, but this one may be nerve wracking to ride long, because it's still nested in P3, and the 3-of-3 down that follows is supposed to be the big tamale.

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  10.  agreed Im in the bear camp....look at the 10 and 30 week ema's...However I will review if Dax hits 5800 which coming soon imho

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  11. Well today certainly didn't end so great for the bulls, but...still, there are clear bull flags - with a possible inverse H/S on the daily/hourly cycle charts.

    I'd have to guess now we see the C' wave complete with the FOMC next Wednesday/Thursday.
    --
    At least a short post-FOMC is a hell of a lot safer that one before.
    -

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  12. That's exactly what I'm thinking Papa... that wave 4 isn't finished.  Ultimately, you'd better believe it the game is over.  I don't know if you ever read the study I did on the CRX, but man that thing is conclusive.  The deflation is indeed upon us.  Just for the hell of it, you can see the latest version of that piece here if you're interested.  But even that one is now nearly 6 mumfs old.  The original was written way over a year ago.  Feb., 2011 if I'm not misnaken.

    Yeah, I'm a firm believer in the idea that wave 2's should be vicious upside swings with the intention of selling the idea that a new bull market has begun.  But even if the market does turn higher to put in the second leg of an 'abc' upward correction, I'd put the absolute maximum upside target in the 1360-65 zone... tops.  Maybe only 1340ish.

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  13. AR - your mystery chart is almost certainly the DX which I follow - yes I believe it's got a little more downside here before turning back up 

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  14. Hi Al... that's the SPX inverted.  And yes, I'd say it has more downside (the chart above).  But at this very moment, the market is going the other way (SPX lower).  Perhaps just another little correction lower in the S&P before it breaks that neckline on its way to finish what I perceive to be wave 2 up?  Don't get me wrong, I'm not particularly hung up on the bullish case, it's just that the signals from the market internals are sure in support of further bounce here.  The market is getting a little stronger with each passing day, in spite of the choppy action.  I fully realize it can also come completely unglued at any moment.  All I can say is that the market internals are suggesting "not quite yet".

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  15.  Hey AR - yeah I saw that on Pretzel's forum (that it was SPX inverted) - actually if you look at the DX it's pattern is almost identical to SPX since April - inverted of course.  Which tells you how much EURO events are driving equities at the moment.
    Haven't been trading much, did a couple of ES shorts yesterday, 1st one lost money, 2nd one earned back exactly what was lost on 1st one.  I'm not as confident in the bull case as you are, but also not sure about the bear case, so pretty much standing aside except for possible scalp opportunities.
    That pop in equities the last little bit is BS - bots at work I think.

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  16. I think she roars higher tomorrow, whether it's warranted or not.  If you're uncomfortable right now Al, you're definitely doing the right thing by standing aside.  In that case, if you asked me, I'd advise that you wait it out to see if the market does indeed put in a relatively clear 'abc' higher.  I believe wave 'c' is now underway.  So somewhere around 1340ish or at tops 1360-65 I think you're gonna get the chance of the decade to load up your boat.

    Wishing you nothin' but the best my friend.

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  17.  Ah, my guess was VIX, before I read lower.
    --
    So...if we didn't know ANY news...we'd all probably agree its going lower..aka..market UP next week, probably 3-5% ...1350/70...somewhere around there.

    good wishes

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  18.  Is this what you had in mind?

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  19. Yes sir, that's pretty much what I think the market internals would support.  The way they look tonight (the internals charts) they might not support much more of a rally than what you've drawn though since they're already becoming somewhat overbought and yet they've barely moved higher.  BUT... depending on whether or not the major trend has really turned south, they 'could' remain overbought for quite some time.  I say they won't.  I say they'll turn south with a vengeance and without any warning in the form of a negative divergence once they roll down.  I'm speaking about RSI, stochastics, etc.  Because those momentum indicators react totally differently at the end of a 'c' wave than they do at the end of an impulse wave.  And I think that when the S&P gets up into that 1340ish or even 1360-65 area we'll be at the end of a 'c' wave.  So when the momentum indicators (for the NYSI, NAMO, etc., as well as for the markets themselves) start to turn lower from an overbought condition, that's going to be darned near enough for a sell signal IMHO.

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  20. Yup, "if we didn't know any news" and just went with the charts and felt confident that charts would behave like they did two decades ago, then yes we could be pretty darned confident that the chart I showed above would fall.  Of course you know what that chart is now... so yes, we could be confident that equities appear to be on the verge of another little burst higher.  Actually I probably have no right to qualify it as "little".  It's just that I think the upside is truly limited though.  Right there in the middle of your range sounds just about right to me.

    All the best PD.  By the way, the other day you kinda sniped at Pebblewriter, which surprised me a lot.  He's a wonderful guy.  I'm hoping you mistook him for someone else.

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  21. Haven't been watching recently, but well done to AR et al with the bounce warnings. 
    I have learned many lessons in the last few years, some of them rather painful. I have restrained my over-eagerness to make the old 1-2, i-ii call, which I seemed to make every other week at one point. 
    But now I think the real deal is just around the corner.
    And I am in 100% agreement with AR re the opportunity that longer-term bears thought may never come.
    Pythagoras knew a thing or two about triangles, and I have become a true believer in their power in EW. 
    All hail Pythagoras! 
    As they can only be a (4) or a (B) (yeah, (Y) also), if we can spot an elusive bona-fide three-sided polygonal, we can unlock many mysteries.
    The Order of the Search for the Holy Triangle can now reveal two charts that may mark a key moment in The Holy Bear Scriptures and bring forth the wrath of Ursa Major on all who defy her.
    AUDJPY
    http://screencast.com/t/s5k5CHbuT
    AUDUSD
    http://screencast.com/t/HJEWde2e5O4C

    Best of luck to all, and remember..Pythagoras was of course Greek.
    DK

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  22. Very nice observation DK!  That triangle does make a nice B.
    Glad to hear we're almost there!

    There is one fact voting for another fifth wave down of this one waver -- I'm still wondering about this wave 1 of the 3rd -- why it hasn't gone beyond the 1st wave of a higher degree?  In the AUDUSD.  How much weight would you give that?

    Just got back from camping ... nice to be back.

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  23. USDJPY -- Retesting prior resistance of downtrend.  Would make a nice support and entry point for a long.

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  24. Hope you didn't meet any grizzlies on your camping trip. Then again, they woulda recognised you were a bear, just without the costume,lol.
    AUDUSD, just for you
    http://screencast.com/t/DkUZsmUs1YAr

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  25. We got a clear break of the IH&S neckline higher on the HSI last night (EOW Friday strength). Europe is strong too (so far, but things look like the may be coming back in for the NY open) on the rumor of possible coordinated CB intervention this weekend.

    Saw a little lower where the mystery chart is the SPX inverted and where it might have been confused with the USD. I'd only add that it could also be confused with the 10 and 30 Year Treasuries as well.

    The old tried and true correlations look to be ALIVE AND WELL!

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  26. That's pretty big going into a weekend, and THIS weekend nonetheless!

    Large cap breakout. Not exactly broad based, but not all that narrow either. And we've got to remember, the RUT kicked things off. ;-)

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  27. Hanging in Golden at the Ramada, Enjoying Okagagan fruit, wonderful gouda cheese and plenty of wine. I better stop here cuz anything else I write will be goofy. Loving Canada. This IS God's country. Just sorry it took so long for me to discovery it for myself.

    Anyone who reads this: if you need a place to go to find yourself, if it's fallen apart, drive/ride this Banff/Jasper corridor. My life is good... And I sit in such gratitude and love in witness of this splendor.

    WOW!

    Who needs money, fame, anyofit..... when there is this.

    Real Love

    DL

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  28. Hahaha ... yes they'd probably recognize I was one of their own.  But I just met deer, ponies and sand crabs.  And our tent was protected from the winds and storm by a sand hill with trees.  But the loud birds in those trees got up at 5 am.  :)
     
    Thanks for the daily AUDUSD ... it's a keeper ... saving that masterpiece!
    It's the 0.9397 of [1] I was thinking this minor 1 of [3] might want to take out -- that rule of the first wave of a 3 extends past the fist wave of the next higher degree.

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  29. OMG, I'm so glad you got to Golden.  That means you're probably heading south into the Okanagan?  Kelowna, etc?  Wait until you experience the ride between Golden and Revelstoke. A biker's mountain highway paradise. If that's the way you're going, when you get to Revelstoke mark your odometer when you're leaving that city and check out a little place called Craigellachie.  It's only 38 km from Revelstoke and right on the highway.  22 miles. You might want to turn in there and see something monumental in Canadian history.  I won't tell you what it is and don't Google Craigellachie or you'll spoil the surprise.  But it's something you'll probably never forget.  You'll actually be looking for "Craigellachie Historic Site", not the town itself (if there even is one, I forget).

    When you get to Sicamous you're about to run into lake country.  Big beautiful lakes.  And in Sicamous you can rent a houseboat if you have a mind to.  When you get to Kelowna there is a big long bridge you'll drive over to cross Okanagan Lake.  It's fairly new and replaced an older bridge that was a 3/4 mile long floating bridge that had a lift span so bigger sail boats could pass underneath it. Overall though, I couldn't tell you where the greatest beauty is along your journey because that province is just pretty everywhere.  For the sheer majesty of the mountains, you're pretty much in the heart of it right now (but they are vast, running another 1000 miles north of where you are right now).  But the beautiful farmland, orchards, wineries... they lie ahead of you.  South of Sicamous you'll start to see it unfold the further south you go.  Enderby, Armstrong, Vernon, Kelowna, Peachland, Summerland, Penticton... places like that.  The gentle beauty and quiet of that entire "interior of BC" reminds me of this.  I think you're gonna love every mile of it.  I know I do.

    Please take some pictures and post them when you get back, ok? 

    Take care, ride safe and watch for rocks and animals on the road.  They do exist.  Not the rocks so much except when you're driving beside those vertical mountain walls.  But the animals really can appear at the edge of the road almost anywhere, particularly as the sun is setting.  They move a lot at that time of day.  I'm so happy for you :-)

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  30. Dropping into Lake Louise tomorrow. Went thru Revelstoke today and had the BEST Indian-German food. Loved the lakes. Will stay tomorrow in Jasper, then back to Golden and then stateside thru Glacier and on to Yellowstone...

    Wish my iPad would allow me to post pics here but it won't. I have one with me on a tractor at the best dairy/ ice cream stop ever...

    Wish I had more time here.... LOVE your country!

    Xoxox
    Dl

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  31. Ps re craigallachie.... I did google it cuz I just had to. My grandfather gave me $10 for my birthday as a child long ago. I asked Grandad to hold onto the money and buy me stock. I didn't know, but $10 couldn't buy squat then, so he eventually bought me 10 shares of my first company: Canadian Pacific.

    Don't think I don't cry when I see that train roll by and they pull the horn for me when I pass them zooming past on the highway.

    My grandmother was born in Edmonton.

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  32. Oh... you went kinda reverse?  That's even awsomer... paving your own path so to speak.  It's all good... as long as you're enjoying it all and the people are being good to you.  Can't wait to see you on the tractor, lol. By the way, my cousin Sue lives in Golden. She's 63, about 5 feet tall and probably 100 lb. tops. And she rides a Honda Goldwing. Can you believe that?

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  33. Very cool.  You wanna hear a tremendous song about the building of that railway?  It's by Gordon Lightfoot, probably the best songwriter/storyteller in history of this country.  This song by now is a Canadian icon, sung by an incredible Canadian icon along the lines of Joni herself.  By the way, Gordon and Joni have been friends for literally decades.  I had the pleasure of seeing Gordon sing this song in person.  The Canadian Railroad Trilogy. (with lyrics) In this video there's an actual picture of Donald Smith driving in that "last spike". You can see it at the 5:00 mark.

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  34. http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/overbought_mcclellan_oscillator/

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Something I just noticed (since I don't follow the Greek stock market): the Greek stock market went on a daily momentum buy signal on Friday, June 8, confirmed that signal this last Monday, and then went on a weekly momentum buy this last week - and that after hitting a low with a possible triple class A bullish divergence on the MACD and the Histogram on both the weekly and daily time frame and having lost over 92% of its value these last 5 years. Not saying it's a buy, but it certainly looks to be a fairly "low risk" trade. BigCharts symbol: GR:DWGC

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    http://tickerforum.org/akcs-www?post=207398&ord=2963992#2963992

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  35. Since my comments at the other site I've seen you frequent get filtered away & you've disabled them at redlinescenario, I'm glad you resurfaced here...just wanted to say I enjoy all you've been posting there.

    Thx!

    If you're still undecided on the leading diagonal debate, we had some related discussions here:
    http://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.com/2012/06/russell-is-tattletale.html#comment-548631297
    Take away being that Frost/Prechter do not identify LD's as being uni-directional in the 2006 edition of EWP.

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  36. Helping me pretend to be a mancow...temporarily, anyway...
    http://rationalinsolvency.com/2012/06/spx061612an.png 
    http://rationalinsolvency.com/2012/06/spx061612dn.png 

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  37. Some updated charts of mine.

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  38. Why QEs *must* continue.

    It is a fact that
    in the US and Europe tax revenues do not cover
    retirement of debt and govt spending;
    so, borrowing to cover bond rollover and new expenses,
    by issuing bonds, is required.

    But if the necessary borrowing,
    under present conditions of:
    --large scale borrowing,
    --poor economy [poor tax revenues], and
    --hi debt to GDP ratios,
    would cause higher rates:

    "Imagine what the US economy would look like
    with the base rate set to Italian levels of six per cent.
    Asset values from bonds to stocks to real estate would be decimated.
    a deflationary
    [cause of inability to pay off the debt at such hi rates
    and the fall in asset values]
    depression would set in."

    Therefore, to avoid such a rate rise
    and deflation
    printing *must* continue
    so so that govt can buy back its own bonds
    at higher prices than other bond buyers would bid
    ie hi bond prices = lo int rates.
    ie the deficits must be monitized

    The handwriting on the wall:

    1. "The fed has become a significant buyer of debt,
    purchasing some 75 percent of US treasuries last year
    because there were no other buyers."

    2. LTRO, the ECB's longer-term refinancing operation
    [which has now loaned out above a trillion dollars]
    lends banks cash at about 1%
    by loaning against sovereign bonds
    that those banks currently hold,
    so the banks can, in turn, lend to their domestic governments
    by buying newly issued bonds.

    The question is not weather QEs [printing] will continue,
    the question is,
    Is there a way to get off the merry-go-round ?


    Impact of QE3 on various assets:


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  39. Happy fathers day to many of you. My present was a droid phone so i can finally get to this site at work. YAY!

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  40. Maybe the next couple of weeks will settle whether it has been a 4 or an ABC. I'm still leaning heavily toward the 4, given the action on the less distorted non-US indexes.

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  41. Good morning Papa.  So you're leaning toward the idea that we're in a wave 4 of the initial decline off the April high?  Personally, I've been thinking that the entire decline off the April high was a leading diagonal because every single one of it's waves could easily be counted as a 3-wave structure.  True, there was no overlap between what I perceive to be the 4th wave and the bottom of wave 1.  But there doesn't necessarily have to be either, according to evidence that Zim Zeb submitted here.

    In either case, you're expecting a pullback at any time now it appears.  There are so many out there who have been expecting the S&P to surge to 1340 at least and possibly 1365ish.  And even higher.  I've been in that camp too, for a couple of reasons.  Until this morning, the market internals were strengthening pretty nicely, although still at very low levels... but rising.  And the second reason is just a simple moving average system that suggests we can move higher.  Granted, that MA system would turn south if price on the S&P were to drop to say 1320ish.  In other words, price would have to drop back down through the recent 'consolidation' in that 1310-1320 range before I'd be convinced that we're heading lower.  At this very moment I'm flat, dead flat... not in the markets with one penny.  But if that darned Russell takes out Friday's high, I'll have to go with the evidence and expect more upside.  I honestly don't now whether that would be a long opportunity or if a guy should just wait until Bernanke has had another opportunity to say nothing tomorrow. I do not think there will be any more QE at this time. On second thought... I think I just answered my own question. I should wait to short it tomorrow if all the ducks are lined up to support that idea, PLUS Bernanke delivers the bad news.

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  42. Momentum is strong on the daily time frame and we may have just seen a backtest to what was immediate overhead resistance. The upper Bollinger is turning up, but the 50% retrace and the 50 DMA are now directly overhead - get above those guys, and it's smooth sailing up to the 61.8% retrace, and above that we can start talking about the IH&S target. (And along with the NYSI moving higher, the 5, 10 and 20 DMA's are also positively aligned, the +DI is above the -DI, money flow has turned strongly back up . . .)

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  43. More SPX charting.

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  44. Roger.  I see people on other blogs now talking about the Olympics as if they came up with it.

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  45. Happy Belated Fathers' Day to most of you all yesterday.
    Hey AR, I posted something today from my new Droid phone (to get around the blocks on my work computer), and it seemed to disappear on your site.  Maybe it looked like SPAM?

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  46. Negative Greg.  There's nothing in the spam bin nor in the "pending" bin.  That "pending" bin is always empty because comments don't need any approval.

    Did you see it appear here 'at all'?  I mean, did you see it for a minute then it vanished?

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  47. Very interesting. I thought it showed up right after i posted it. This is a second attempt.

    ReplyDelete
  48. And right on schedule, 15 days after the low, Wags shows up on Daneric's blog to talk shit about something Tbone said on June 8.

    ReplyDelete
  49. Hey, the reply from my phone vanished again.  Itsa mystery!

    ReplyDelete
  50. From what I can see they're not even getting here Greg.  I'll ask the question again.  Did you see them here, even for a minute and then they vanished?  I've never seen them here.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Well SJ, on May 5th you showed up here and left this unwelcome and unwarranted comment:

    "The obsession with Daneric's blog on here and other places isn't
    healthy, imho.   I think it is rather troll-like especially when it is
    directed at people just because they post on Daneric's blog or any other
    blog. It also smacks of an attempt to control others just because they
    post here. Imma out of here and to shun and insult them if they don't
    stop posting elsewhere. I am not interested in being controlled or
    being in a gang.  Thanks all.  It has been nice.
    "

    So tell me, really... what's the difference between you and Wagner in that regard?

    ReplyDelete
  52. Might be worth reporting to Disqus.  I *think* they're the one dropping the ball (droid message) in this instance...not that I really understand...

    ReplyDelete
  53. Hard to say Zim because Greg's first message didn't show up 'anywhere', not in Blogger and not in Disqus.  But I'll let them know.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Anyone got a YSOSRS gif lying around?

    ReplyDelete
  55. Why so serious?  Because I was literally forced to start this blog to get away from that very sort of nonsense.  I'm not going to put up with trolls or trouble makers here. 

    ReplyDelete
  56. Good wishes for Fed day AR.
    --
    I am feeling impatient tonight, its kinda like Christmas eve. What will Santa bring?

    3 lumps of coal..or diamonds for all those deluded bull maniacs ?
    -

    ReplyDelete
  57. That's the one ... yes, it does show up right after I post it.  Maybe I can sign up differently.  Will try again tomorrow.  No worries ... I can at least read you all during the day now.  Thanks for looking into it.

    ReplyDelete
  58. They will say:

    "We are aware that global growth is slowing and we stand at the ready to use all the tools in our tool box."

    Hoping they never have to see the day when the majority of market participants realize their tool box is empty.

    ReplyDelete
  59. I said it AR because you said I play in feces and think it is normal.  Your comment was unprovoked and unsolicited.  I have no ill will but apparently you do, so I will leave.  

    Thanks and I do wish you well.

    ReplyDelete
  60. I asked Pretzel to unsubscribe me. That is between me and Pretzel.  I did so because I did not want to respond to what you and Katzo were saying about me and some of the traders on Daneric's board there.  I felt it was responsible rather than argue further.

    ReplyDelete
  61. I never said one thing about you on Pretzel's.  Let's make sure that is clear.  I have no idea what Katzo might have said.  He and I speak very little but he's a good enough guy in my books.

    ReplyDelete
  62. Lol, I don't know bro.  The only people who already know what the Bernank is going to say are those who wrote his speech, Goldman Sachs.  I honestly believe that if Bernanke was going to gift the world one more time tomorrow, then the orcs would have tanked the market today in preparation (load more bear-fuel for the rocket ride up).  But instead they cranked the market up mightily based on what?  Based on the false promise of a lot more QE tomorrow.  I just don't think there's a single reason that Bernanke could use to justify it.  Not to mention that it's politically toxic and would ruin the president's chances of being re-elected.  Oil at $130 again?  Gold at $2200 within weeks?  I say there will be no QE tomorrow.  What in the world could he use to justify it?  I dunno... we'll see.

    ReplyDelete
  63. My pleasure bud and I'm sorry it's not working well with the Droid.  But please rest assured that you've got the best clearance that I can issue.  Actually everybody does until they cause trouble, lol.

    ReplyDelete
  64. Perdón,"Forgive me my nonsense, as I also forgive the nonsense of those that think they talk sense."

    ReplyDelete
  65. The AUDUSD could certainly be a 4 still.
    Could we have an expanding diagonal for minor 1 of this 3?

    ReplyDelete
  66. Always wanted to visit that part of Canada ... spent a summer in Glacier park as a 21 yearold .. best summer of my life there.  Beautiful!  Take the drive up to the overpass, or bike down :).  Enjoy!!

    ReplyDelete
  67. This is what Lady Divine just did.  How awesome is this?

    ReplyDelete
  68. Geez, that's a pretty good chart there Greg.  I didn't even see that.  It wouldn't be out of the question either if the deflationary collapse continues.  That represents quite a tankard comin' right up, lol.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Test..problems posting

    ReplyDelete
  70. Seems like GLD doesn't expect any new QE.

    ReplyDelete
  71. $SPX stalling at resistance with MACD histogram declining.

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  72. Que pasa?  What's going wrong DL?

    ReplyDelete
  73. So, I post an explanation to what you posted AR, with an apology explaining that I made that statement because you said I play in feces and act like it is normal and even with my apology you are not a big enough person to even leave the post up?  Do you have problems admitting that you may have insulted somebody?  I don't, which is why I said that even though you said I play in feces and act like it is normal that I am responsible for they way I respond to a perceived insult and apologized for that insult.  Apparently you needed to remove that insult and just leave your one sided AR is perfect SJ is a bad person post up.  

    Peace.  Om.

    ReplyDelete
  74. NYSI still looking sweet (along with a host of other indicators) if you're a bull. ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  75. Yup, even though the markets seem to be "right there" at resistance, the internals are still strong, moving averages are rolling higher quickly and the reaction to Bernanke today offering absolutely nothing was "oh well, let's just put in a tiny 'abc' correction and pretend we care".  I'm starting to get those evil bullish thoughts again.

    ReplyDelete
  76. That is awesome!  Thanks for sharing the drive through the glacier fields with us!

    ReplyDelete
  77. Thanks SJ ... did you see the USDJPY found support at the old resistance?  I think the new long-awaited 3rd wave up may have begun!!!  HIP HIP HORRAY!

    ReplyDelete
  78. But it is still stuck under that line, and that would be a good place for a wave 4 to end (below wave 1).
    I think it is a bear until it proves it's a bull (by getting above resistance).

    ReplyDelete
  79. Summer is officially here 
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1_8909dNJ0

    ReplyDelete
  80. Haha... the one thing that I always thought was so darned unfair about the first day of summer is that it's also the longest day of the year.  Days start getting shorter every darned day for the next 6 months.  They should be getting longer so we have enough time to enjoy the sun.  But summer is still something I cherish a great deal, all 8 weeks of it.  Some day, one of these days... I'll move to a place where I can enjoy at least one relatively mild winter.  Thanks for the old tune David.  I'd forgotten about that one.

    ReplyDelete
  81. Any other IHS skeptics out there?
    http://rationalinsolvency.com/2012/06/spx062112uk.png 

    ReplyDelete
  82. What's interesting is that the NDX it isn't even close to testing it's neckline while the Russell has sliced through it's neckline like the old hot knife trick.  Small caps leading but I've always been a bit perplexed about why the NAS is always so strong.  I mean is the tech sector that much more favorable than the stocks that make up the S&P 500?

    ReplyDelete
  83. Well, at least $NDX complied by the end of the day :)

    One thing that has my attention is that $GDOW, which traced out what looks to me to be an absolutely gorgeous B wave triangle from the 7th-14th, is still solidly above its "neckline."

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  84. Newsflash:  USDJPY Wave 3 has begun!

    Has anyone seen a more beautiful and clear wave formation than this?
    After all the slop served up by the equities market, this is as good a risk/reward as I've seen in 10 years.
    As DK once said, it's low risk and ENORMOUS reward -- a truck load of pips leveraged up. 
    This ladies and gentlemen is a winning lottery ticket.

    And all the talk of Greece and the Fed and inflation worries and ... is partially to distract us from seeing the real opportunities of the yen carry trade unwinding. 

    ReplyDelete
  85. Good call by the way!

    ReplyDelete
  86. Lol... at first when I looked at your chart I was thinking Aussie:Yen not USD:Yen.  So I looked at your chart, saw that big 1 sitting up there and immediately thought to myself "What the hell is wrong with Greg tonight?  Surely he knows the Aussie:Yen cross isn't headed higher like that?  That's not like him to mess up like..... DOH, THAT'S NOT THE AUSSE:YEN.  OPEN YOUR EYES AR."  I actually started to chuckle when I discovered that it was my own fault because I just got home, I'm tired and didn't read your labeling properly.  Sorry buddy... my bad.  But it 'was' a funny moment. lol

    Yeah, it's our turn to make some big plays here bud.  Critically important that we still maintain control over our giddiness and remember the first rule of investing: "don't lose money".  Rule #2 is "make money".  If we take care of rule #1, rule #2 will take care of itself.  I know, easier said than done.  But if we remain fairly careful and patient, we should be able to nail a few monster moves here.  Best of luck bud.  I'm pulling for ya all the way.

    ReplyDelete
  87. Yes, it's all about managing risk, and this maximum may not be possible to handle the risk while also living a life, and there are stop stealing runs, and 4am moves .. but this is an example of what type of possibility is out there.  And I've experienced about all that can go wrong.  As Edison said, "I've discovered 10,000 ways to make a light bulb that don't work!"  But with a fundamental understanding of the economic scenario set up, wave counts, a good set-up and a chain reaction set up facing us, it's a life0time opporunity, that's for sure.

    ReplyDelete
  88. P.S.  On the market, I feel a doubt that this was the start of something in SPY down ... just because the squiggles looked too HTFish for me.  Reminds me of all those 34 months of watching them do their thing on the upside.  Looked to well-behaved to be any real panic.  If this was a manufactured drop to scare up some QE3 from the benster by the mob that is GS.

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  89. Daily momentum just got crushed yesterday. I got daily momentum sells on all the U.S. indices I follow.

    Key
    now is to identify whether this is a failure (IH&S neckline being
    one), or a bear trap spike lower that should be bought. With the oversold we were at on the likes of the
    NYSI, I'd be favoring a buy spike scenario. I'd be thinking long, but with very good entries,
    close stops and appropriate money management.

    From StockCharts.com - ChartSchool: http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_b

    "Volume levels during the first half
    of the pattern are less important than in the second half. Volume on the
    decline of the left shoulder is usually pretty heavy and selling
    pressure quite intense. The intensity of selling can even continue
    during the decline that forms the low of the head. After this low,
    subsequent volume patterns should be watched carefully to look for
    expansion during the advances.




    "The advance from the low of the head
    should show an increase in volume and/or better indicator readings,
    e.g., CMF > 0 or rise in OBV. After the reaction high forms the
    second neckline point, the right shoulder's decline should be
    accompanied with light volume. It is normal to experience profit-taking
    after an advance. Volume analysis helps distinguish between normal
    profit-taking and heavy selling pressure. With light volume on the
    pullback, indicators like CMF and OBV should remain strong. The most
    important moment for volume occurs on the advance from the low of the
    right shoulder. For a breakout to be considered valid, there needs to be
    an expansion of volume on the advance and during the breakout."

    When looking at the large caps, volume doesn't look all that bad, and more specifically, when looking at the OEX, it looks rather constructive to me. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$OEX&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p61962174852

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  90. Something I'm keeping at the top of the radar screen.

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  91. The possibility it's a 4 with a 5 down starting (even on US indexes as an expanding diagonal) still valid and chugging along. A little deductive reasoning kinda points to it -- people realizing that more downside is needed to bring more QE. And once more QE is announced, that should start a big wave 2 rally (and as you probably know I'm leaning toward labeling it Intermediate rather than Minor degree).

    If what I read on the Internets is true, timing of the next QE is important since, supposedly, it works for a shorter time each time it's used. So I'm guessing it'll be timed to get the most bang for election season. It's still a wave 2, and they have been vigorous over the last few years. Might be enough in it to follow through for a Santa rally.

    If it does manage to stretch out that long, then look out, 2013. Could be the year of Intermediate 3 of P3 down.

    ReplyDelete
  92. We were discussing that yesterday on Pretzel's site and kinda come to the conclusion that if there is going to be more QE it wouldn't be announced until Aug. or Sept.  Possibly if they have another Jackson Asshole meeting in August.  That would give time (theoretically) for a rally into the election.  September might be too late?  The consensus seems to agree with your thoughts Papa that since Bernanke delivered exactly nothing on Wednesday, the market doesn't even really have any business rallying as much as it is even doing today.  The "consensus" in this case meaning "me". lol  I think we close the day with another drop.  I mean, who in hell do they think they're foolin' here?

    ReplyDelete
  93. AR, you may be interested to know Scottick is back http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2012/06/e-minis_22.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DanericsElliottWaves+%28Daneric%27s+Elliott+Waves%29#comment-564916281

    the correction in stocks has helped get rid of bulltard trolls 

    ReplyDelete
  94. That sure was resistance!

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  95. Hey guys, this line of thought comes from the events happening in 2008. Remember the news screamed of the markets falling off a cliff when congress didn't vote through the rescue package? TWICE.

    In early July the ESM is expected to be fully operational, however it isn't even ratified. Only 3 of the 17 countries have ratified it. With countries like germany, netherlands, and finnland yet to ratify it. It would appear to be the perfect time to bring about that level of fear again.

    ReplyDelete
  96. Thanks David.  Yeah, Scottick and I really got a long well.  I really like that dude and have missed him.  But I also saw somebody recommend to Scottick that he'd fit in real well on this blog and he acknowledged that he'd check it out.  Not his cup of tea I guess.  There's no audience here and I'm not doing much to build one.  So I can't blame him.  But thanks for the heads up anyway.  

    ReplyDelete
  97. Thanks Miljan.  Yes, I think there's still a whole trainload of bad news yet to come.  In fact I'm thinking that on Monday the markets could reverse and start to head down again rather sharply.  Hope you have a great weekend :-)

    ReplyDelete
  98.  http://chartramblings.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/dow_23.html

    ReplyDelete
  99. great song and the video seemed appropriate to our fine host's avatar  :-)    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLbYL10c1zo

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  100. How nice of you CR.  That was lovely.  My daughter took one of these babies out onto the Yukon river and traveled 750 kilometers all the way up to Dawson City in 14 days just because she wanted to see Robert Service's cabin.  Of course it was Service who penned "The Cremation of Sam McGee" and "The Shooting of Dan McGrew" amongst others.  She got there alright, but along the way she took a whole library of photos including what it was like to be paddling on the river at midnight in the "land of the Midnight sun".  A stunning set of photos to be sure.  She then put them all together into an album and published it on the net.  I used to have the code in an email she'd sent me but I've since lost the email.  In any case, thanks for the nice serene video and the kind thought.

    ReplyDelete
  101. $ZOPPER $CRX commodities lead equities down 
    http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2012/06/is-it-all-about-greece-or-the-message-copper-and-the-crx-index-is-sending-about-the-potential-of-deflationlower-prices-ahead/

    ReplyDelete
  102. Good wishes for the week ahead AR!

    I read around probably too much again this weekend. Yet..after the many bullish posters I see...all I have to do is refer back to my VEU charts.

    They are clear enough I think. The multi-year cycle VEU chart looks scary. 

    Bulls get two warnings. We might get close to taking out the first one by this Friday.
    --
    good wishes.

    *attached charts, I've not even posted on my page yet. Talk about cutting edge!  ;)

    ReplyDelete
  103. yep, a VERY VERY clear bear flag on the CRX.

    Its so obvious, the bull maniacs don't wanna see it.. they are still touting a retrace to 1360 or so...some..even higher!
    --

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  104. Thanks PD.  Dayum... that Vanguard chart is amazing.  Thanks for posting it.

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  105. Continental PIIGS starting to outperform? Or just the end of a blip?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$IBEX:$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p95422758482
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$IBEX:$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p68304909316

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$MIB:$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p78503348157
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$MIB:$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p79439354123

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$PSI:$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p09526505313
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$PSI:$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p10851823060

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GRDOW:$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p20642141710
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GRDOW:$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p19346132028

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  106. Thanks HighRev, that's a good perspective.  Your charts are suggesting that the European bourses are starting to out-perform the S&P and gold.  I'd say that relationship is probably going to continue for a while longer.  But I see it as a ratio that continues to climb as "all equities markets" fall.  IOW, I'd agree that the S&P is due for a real shit-kicking but that the Portuguese, Italian and Spanish markets will continue to fall as well... just not as hard as the S&P is about to fall.  Great charts and a great idea to put 'em together.  Thanks dude :-)

    ReplyDelete
  107.  ". . . I see it as a ratio that continues to climb as "all equities markets" fall."

    And you are very possibly correct. :-(

    ReplyDelete
  108. This is one
    of those charts that’s always up (so-to-speak) with its various levels and story board narrative. ;-)
     

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  109. As has been remarked before Gann analysis is not homogenous like Elliott wave or most other methodoligies,a source both of frustration and facination.Jim Flanagan is a Gann analyst who doesnt look at Gann angles,the square of nine,etc but what he does do brilliantly is to examine past historical cycles  exhausively,in a statistical fashion,to derive conclusions.This free vid is on soybeans which today made historical highs   http://www.gannglobal.com/webinar/2012/06/24-M12-Video-1.php

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  110. Just spotted your post Greggo. Currently away with the family in gorgeous Tasmania. It's so beautiful down here; a bit like AR's place, just a bit smaller.
    re USDJPY
    let's not get ahead of ourselves here. The number of times I've calculated how much I'm going to profit from a move....when I should be calculating what is at risk if it DOESN'T work.
    Yes, this could be the real deal. But the EW count could be dead wrong.
    Stay safe & remember ÁR's basic rules 1. Don't lose. 2. Win - IN THAT ORDER
    see you in a few weeks...maybe by then we will have some clear daylight.
    DK

    ReplyDelete
  111. ..and another thing to consider-
    I've discussed this before re AUD, JPY & USD.
    But it can be boiled down to a 3-way matrix.
    We are 'éxpecting'
    1. USDJPY to soar
    2. AUDUSD to tank
    3. AUDJPY to tank with it's SPX correlation

    for all 3 scenarios to play out as described, AUD HAS
    to get completely and utterly annihilated.
    If it doesn't then 1,2 & 3 cannot happen in unison.

    ReplyDelete
  112. Thanks DK!
    That's damned good advice to keep planted in the forefront of my mind to keep the greed at bay and keep it from taking they eyes off minimizing risk by finding the good entry points and a valid conut (as the Tbone says). 

    I'd hoped your absenes meant you were on vacation ... enjoy ... I've not been to Tasmania ... will find some pictures of it ... I do like the pics of AR's rugged Canadian wilderness.  Enjoy your family!  Hope you find a tranquil mind, because it will be a nice timely asset when you get back.
    Cheers,
    And thanks again,
    Greg

    ReplyDelete
  113. Thanks for bringing that up again, I was just wondering which currency will move more in the P3 scenario, and you just answered that ... the AUDUSD.  I was liking the USDJPY better as the counts seem cleaner (coming up off the bottom).  But AUDUSD seems to be making a possible v of minor 1 and leading diagonal which implies something very different headed our way (a big v taking out the P1 low) than Daneric's count on SPX which also looks like a fine count.

    ReplyDelete
  114. Still looking for a reason to get intermediate to long term bearish, and I can't find it technically. Took a fresh look at things starting from a different angle and came up with the "same old lines" that I think everyone has on their charts by now. ;-)

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  115. RationalInsolvencyJune 27, 2012 at 11:25 AM

    Ever feel like it's a giant video game?
    http://rationalinsolvency.com/2012/06/spx062712bf.png 

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  116. Big levels we're at right now on the SPX (and it's representative on the vast majority of the 25 world indices I track). Big levels just above and just below all the way around.

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  117. I know FTSE is cheap and the yield is attractive but the chart is sh*te  http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-QZjFB-UbA0Y/T-uIWFpoVAI/AAAAAAAAL4c/tKA7t_sRh3Y/s1600/ftse.png

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  118. retest complete?
    http://rationalinsolvency.com/2012/06/ftse062712apf.png 

    ReplyDelete
  119. Also works astoundingly well on the SPX.

    ReplyDelete
  120. I just posted a lengthly TA presentation (with charts) to back up a "Valuation Buy Signals" I posted a couple of weeks ago over on the Ticker Forum. http://tickerforum.org/akcs-www?singlepost=2974227 It's in the free, no registration required area, so you can all see it fine and I don't have to do the reposting (better viewed in the format over there as well.

    Hope it's worth your time.

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  121. Hi...I see you daily..and raise you a monthly...

    Only a move above 6000 would make me bullish on the FTSE.
    --
    The monthly charts continue to warn of problems in July, but the weekly cycles offer further upside - along with the daily.

    From what I've seen this evening, the consensus seems to be a move to sp'1390/1400 next week.

    Have a good weekend

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  122. http://rationalinsolvency.com/2012/06/ibexdax063012tc.png

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  123. Found these charts and thought others might be interested in seeing how much longer this bear market could last. 
    The article can be found at
    http://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts.
    I signed up for his free email and the charts were in the most recent one.

    http://images.mauldineconomics.com/uploads/charts/063012-05.jpg
    http://images.mauldineconomics.com/uploads/charts/063012-06.jpg

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  124. http://rationalinsolvency.com/2012/06/bsbe.png

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  125. http://rationalinsolvency.com/2012/07/cac070112apf.png

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  126. Where is this happening?

    (A continuation of my last post below: A selection of charts looking at long term horizontal price support.)

    Remember, this is "template" analysis that can be taken to the instrument of your choice. ;-)

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  127. InfCession, InfPression, DeriviPlosion

        "The U.S. federal government,...has reached a stage
        where forty cents of every dollar spent at the federal level is borrowed,
        and a lot of that money has been printed."

        "the Fed has become a significant buyer of debt,
        purchasing some 75 percent of US Treasuries last year
        because there were no other buyers."

    AND

        "According to the Comptroller of the Currency report, as of December 31, 2011,
        JPMorgan Chase held $70.2 trillion in derivatives
        and only $136 billion in risk-based capital.
        ...the bank’s derivative bets
        are 516 times larger than the capital that covers the bets.
        Goldman Sachs has $44 trillion in derivative bets
        covered by only $19 billion in risk-based capital,
        resulting in bets 2,295 times larger than the capital that covers them."

    If rates rise
    JPMs & GSs variabl rate payout on 'Interest Rate Swaps' could rise abov
    the fixd rate recd fr their counterparty + fixd rate recd fr their bond hedg
    resulting in *major* losses.
    Meaning derivitive mkt disaster
    affecting the US financial system.
    [Even now, considering real rates, they are a wasting asset, incurring loss.]

    So printing *must* continue
    so the Fed can continue to purchase US Treasury instruments
    to maintain low rates.

    But

        "The Real Numbers, (as opposed to Bogus Official Statistics) show inflation in the U.S.,
        is already...at 9.3% annualized per shadowstats.com"
        "since January 1, 2000, US dollars have lost...26% in purchasing power."

    ie. Printing/liquidity is causing price inflation in food, gas, medicine, education, etc.

    BUT despite the price inflation:

        "Since 2008 the money (M2) multiplier has dropped from slightly under 9 to 3.7."
        "Velocity has also dropped sharply in the last few years."
       
    http://britefire.wordpress.com/2012/07/02/313/

        "Household debt has now declined for the last 16 quarters...
        It still has a long way to go in order to reach the 66% level of 2000,
        let alone the 60-year average of 55%.
        Since this reduces the demand for goods and services,
        businesses have little reason to hire new workers or increase capital expenditures.
        Since household spending accounts for 70% of the GDP,
        the negative effects are felt throughout the economy."

        "Recently we have seen lower-than-expected results or actual declines in
        GDP, job growth, retail sales, income growth, core capital goods orders,
        vehicle sales and initial unemployment claims."

    So, the prognosis appears as
    economic recession or depression
    with price inflation,
    ie. the US dollar still losing value.
    InfCession or InfPression,
    with the Damocles sword of derivitive implosion,
    DeriviPlosion.

    Lean toward hard assets ?

    ReplyDelete
  128. Dang if it ain't still possible that a big ol' 5 down is still to come. Once again ignoring the distorted US indexes (which are conditioned to be ass backwards and rally when the news is bad enough to spark a new easing rumor so, I believe, don't really reflect social mood), there's still no reason to think Intermediate 1 of P3 (or Minor 1 of P3) down is complete. On the GDOW and VEU (daily view) the proposed 4 hasn't yet encroached wave 2 territory. And the proposed 4 is simply following the guideline of alternation and stretching out a little more complex than 2.

    So let's say we do get that 5 down. Look also at the triangle on the GLD chart daily, and note where its apex tightens up so much a breakout is inevitable. I think it's all pointing to a slide into the Sept 12-13 Fed meeting (with the SEP presentation and press conference) and a QE announcement at that point. Then we get a big rally into election and possibly to the end of the year (Santa rally and all that). Which would be, in my opinion, Intermediate 2 of P3 down. Then the new year starts and Intermediate 3 of P3 down is on the table.

    -- Papa Boule, who will continue to post here until AR completely shuts this down because Papa Boule is stubborn.

    ReplyDelete
  129. USDJPY updated.

    Channels so well-behaved any kid with a ruler could make a million ...
    Excellent entry point at 79.5 (now) with a tight stop of 79.24 (below low of the day).
    A few tails stick out below this new trend line now with 3 points of support, but many points now defining the new tracks.
    The slope of these tracks match the down slope of the 2nd wave down the past two months.
    Is there any equity or currency pair as well-behaved as this one?
    Is there any maiden more fair than thee?

    Cheers!

    ReplyDelete
  130. I agree, and I think your count is supported by the count also on AUDUSD. 
    And an expanding diagonal implies wave 5 would be the BIGGEST one in minor 1 of P3.  It still needs to take out 0.93 the low of P1, in my opinion ... if this count is valid.  That would also fit with a wave 2 coming next, and then the big cahoona.  And these waves are very clean to count.

    I've also given up on the SPY counting.  Manipulated rag that it is.  Although, interestingly, the NASDAQ looks similar to the AUD ... maybe it was more risk-on than the SPY?  Maybe that's what the big banks bought more of with their free (temporary) QE1 and QE2 monies?

    ReplyDelete
  131. I also will continue posting here until AR mothballs the site ... the time is approaching! 
    I'm also stubborn.  I've become more stubborn than I used to be 3 years ago ... due undoubtedly to the increasingly negative social mood forces.  Give my best to Aunt Pittypat.  :)

    ReplyDelete
  132. But the dollar is gaining in strength, or has been for a year.
    So I agree with the risks you outline above.
    However, I think we are headed for deflation and higher interest rates on US bonds (once default fears heat up on the good ol' USA).
    That the printing won't be big enough to stop either of those outcomes.
    THEN maybe the next stage of these popping bubbles becomes the dollar.

    ReplyDelete
  133. My apologies Papa and Greg.  I just haven't had any inspiration to write anything for quite a while.  I'll be honest, I got real miffed when a couple of people suggested this blog was all about an ego trip on my part and that little pecker showed up a few weeks back and made this smartass comment (way down below):

    "The obsession with Daneric's blog on here and other places isn't
    healthy, imho.   I think it is rather troll-like especially when it is
    directed at people just because they post on Daneric's blog or any other
    blog. It also smacks of an attempt to control others just because they
    post here. Imma out of here and to shun and insult them if they don't
    stop posting elsewhere. I am not interested in being controlled or
    being in a gang.  Thanks all.  It has been nice."

    I don't need to hear shit like that in my life from some drama queen.  And he just would not drop the topic so I pretty much got fed up.  I'm sure I'll write something in the future though so until then... I appreciate you two hanging in there.  At least the space is still here where people can talk without being harassed.  Everyone except myself I guess, lol.

    ReplyDelete
  134. No worries good sir ... take all the time you need ... and try not to take that stuff personally.  Hard I understand when you are the owner of the blog.  But as always ... better to conserve your energy for the real battle of the century, and not just the silly blog-battles that always crop up.  If it's an energy drain, toss it overboard! 

    ReplyDelete
  135. Exactly Greg.  You'd be a great fit at Pretzel's and I'm sure people over there would be glad to meet you.  It's a bit of an ordeal to get into Pretzel's form in a way, but with an intro from myself you'd be in like Flint.  I'd be honored to do that for you and Papa at any time.  Pretzel has that wonderful blog where he does some of the best wave analysis I've ever seen, but all the commentary is now handled on a different site with a completely different format than the Disqus we've all come to know and hate.  I'll admit that it took a bit of getting used to to learn how to use his forum but once you're used to it... it's the bomb.  Pretzel's chat space is handled here: Deep Wave Analytics

    Let me know if you fellows would like a key for that door.  If so, I'll let Pretzel (Jason) know you're coming and when he sees you sign in he won't even question it... you'll be in with no questions asked.  It might take a few hours though.  One word of warning, in all due respect to all my friends over there, some of them are not yet quite as sophisticated as the majority of people you know.  But they're learning and they're one hell of a nice crowd.

    ReplyDelete
  136. Thanks good sir, yes I'd like to check that site out and the comment section.  We had a virus on our computer and I lost all my favortites, so this will be a good start again to find the good pubs in blogosphere.  Very timely ... and thanks for the intro!
    Good night,
    Greg

    ReplyDelete
  137. Done!  I'll send Pretzel a PM right away and he'll recognize your name when you show up.  I assume you still want to be known as GregInBaltimore?

    ReplyDelete
  138. Sounds like a good place to mosey on over to. I just registered there. I've posted on Pretzel's open site previously but I'll reply to AR to give him a heads up.

    ReplyDelete
  139. Hey AR, I registered at Pretzel's new forum this AM, so if you'd put in a good word I'd appreciate it too.

    ReplyDelete
  140. Awesome.  I actually already did that when I told PL about Greg.  I put in 'more' than a good word about you, lol.  You'll be welcomed my friend.

    ReplyDelete
  141. Another site I like a lot and participate on (as you all probably already know) is the Ticker Forum ( http://tickerforum.org ).

    Personal insults, harassment, and generally
    obnoxious behavior that rub most of us decent folks the wrong way are not
    tolerated.

    Anyone who knows how to be a polite guest has no problem.



    There are also rules to each forum inside the larger forum, they are
    stated, and contributors are expected to respect them.

    (There's even a
    "bar", where stupidity is allowed, for those special occasions where
    you're feeling stupid.)



    But don't think there is some
    sort of GROUP THINK mentality over there. There isn't. You can
    completely disagree with anyone, as long as it is done in a civilized
    manner with rational arguments, etc.



    As you might imagine, it's another pretty top notch group.

    As luck would have it, Ticker Forum is running a special this week for referrals. When you
    sign up and list my login ID - Highrev - I'll get a discount. So if
    there's anyone around here who still isn't a Ticker Forum registered
    user and has ever thought about taking a look around over there, now's
    the time! And list my ID when you do! TIA
     

    ReplyDelete
  142. Here's my Modified Gann 360 chart, updated, suggesting that a higher open on Thursday could be a runner.

    ReplyDelete
  143. Does this chart give you a target price for this leg?

    ReplyDelete
  144. If price stays above the 1x2 line that it's currently sitting on, then a 1422 double top would not be a surprise. 1434 would be the non-log target.

    Other targets that can be taken from price action seen on this chart include the IH&S that targets 1405, the harmonic A-B=C-D that targets 1410, and the weekly Fib. retrace long that the SPX is currently inside of that targets 1487 (which is now a confirmed target using that system).

    More importantly, these Gann angles and the 360 square (points/days) help indicate where price might be confined going into the end of the cycle in September. Current price action seems to be indicating that price could very possibly continue in the upper right into the end of the 360 square taking a wedge/triangle form with the upper boundary residing between 1422 and 1434. The 1x1 has provided important ascending support for the last 3 tests (1309 being the last) which leads me to put good odds on that line continuing to be ascending support into the end of the square (along with a host of other support, from horizontal price support to channel support, that I've generously commented on in quite a few recent posts here and on Ticker Forum - one of which is the MA support shown on the chart).

    ChartRambler is better versed in Gann than I am so you might want to check out what he's been posting recently chartramblings.blogspot.com and especially how my Modified 360 stacks up against his SPY 144 that he's been updating. Okay, now that I've said it, CR, what's your take on what I've just said, and does your SPY 144 add or take away?

    ReplyDelete
  145.  I also doubt the Fed can do anything in the long run.
    DeriviPlosion and debt implosion is the logical outcome.
    For now the Fed will keep trying.

       "China has not added any US Treasury holdings in the past year;"

    It may be, sovereigns are seeing th future
    and no one is buying our bonds.
    But, the Fed  must print
    and so far, has kept the rates low.

    Part of the dollars strength may be
    we are printing less than Euroland and others.
    But we are still printing and they are still printing
    and debasing in relation to gold.

    I think we differ more, in that
    you are considering a longer time frame
    and I am thinking of a shorter time frame
    and that because of the universal printing
    and current low interest rates
    and technical and internal considerations,
    that gold is good now.

    When capital flows out of the country
    it may flow to gold.
    And, as gold can do well in the stress of deflation
    I don't fear holding gold vs. dollars.

    Greg, I certainly appreciate your heads up
    and publishing your outlook.

    ReplyDelete
  146.  I dont know who made the comment AR but it is idiotic.I wouldnt lose any sleep over it man :-)

    ReplyDelete
  147. Take a look at Daneric's and you'll figure it out in a hurry.  He's just making it easier by the day to simply consider the source and ignore it :-)

    ReplyDelete
  148. Thanks again for the intro ... and yes, GregInBaltimore works.  If I change it now I'll forget and confuse myself :).

    ReplyDelete
  149. I sent PL a PM last night but haven't heard back from him.  Nor was I necessarily expecting to hear back from him on that topic.  No need really.  The guy really does pour over his charts for hours and hours but I'm sure he got my message.  Consider yourselves in.  If you feel it might be of any help or of necessity by all means feel free to mention that "AR sent me", lol.

    In Papa's case, Papa had already posted at Pretzel's open forum so PL might already remember that Papa had already forged his own inroads.  Both of you will enjoy the company over there... I guarantee it.

    ReplyDelete
  150. Thanks again ... I was just poking around the link to his blog and to the comments that you provided.  Signed up and am waiting for his approval.  I mentioned you as the contact person.  Looking forward to checking it out and getting to know the cast of characters.  Merci aussi!

    ReplyDelete
  151. Possible cycle inversion worth monitoring.

    http://solarcycles.net/2012/07/02/this-week-8/ 

    ReplyDelete
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