Monday, February 25, 2013

Hindenburg Omen Settles Right Down - But Far From Relaxed

UPDATED APRIL 15, 2013 -Well folks, there's an hour to go and the NYSE has generated 88 new 52 week highs and 80 lows.  If the market generates five more lows today's going to be the day we see the first real Hindenburg Omen signal since August 2010.  Any and all other signals you may have seen reported since then have been absolutely bogus for various reasons.  The key reason being that those doing the reporting of HO signals are either not aware of the very strict rules or are interpreting them improperly.  In fact several times we have seen reports that the HO went off when the indicator wasn't even online.  It wasn't even allowed to issue a signal due to any number of violations of its own rules.  Those situations were very much like watching a television that wasn't even plugged into the wall.  Today there will be no such violations so it appears highly likely that we're going to see the first legitimate signal in over two and a half years.
If a signal is issued, I will publish a follow-up post after the market closes.


UPDATED APRIL 05, 2013 - At the close today it is becoming abundantly clear that the market has become very polarized with a few stocks trying to pull the NYSE uphill (and not enough of them at just 93) and half as many horses trying to pull it downhill.  With that many horses tugging to the downside it's pretty obvious that those pulling to the upside have one hell of a battle ahead of them.  In other words, the HO is just passing on the message that the odds of any great upside from here are pretty slim and the odds of a pullback are increasing daily.  How much of a pullback you ask?  The HO has no way of knowing that nor is its purpose to offer advice on that topic.  But what it can do is to simply show us what happened on all the previous occasions when the HO did issue a signal.  Those statistics have been available on this blog for over a year now on the tab at the top of the page entitled "So The HO Issues A Signal. What Happens Next? "

UPDATED APRIL 03, 2013 - As mentioned in yesterday's update, it wouldn't take much of a crack in the markets to get the HO sitting up in its chair with increased interest.  At the closing bell the WSJ reports 122 new 52 week highs being recorded (with 86 required today) and 48 new lows.  That number of new lows is about double what occurred yesterday and is marching toward the required 86.  The market internals are now hanging around right in the HO's wheelhouse.  This is definitely the atmosphere where a HO signal is possible.  Not necessarily "likely", but absolutely possible.  In other words, please don't necessarily "expect" a Hindenburg Omen signal tomorrow or Friday or next week, but don't be surprised if it happens either.

UPDATED APRIL 02, 2013 - Just a very short update because I imagine a lot of people are beginning to wonder if the HO is sending any messages these days.  The answer is this:  There are still too many new 52 week highs being generated although the number is still very anemic for a market that is at or near all-time highs.  That's very weak.  But on the other hand, the number of new 52 week lows is too small to trigger a signal although it is growing daily.  Any sort of sharp turnaround over the next few days or weeks would no doubt set the HO up so that it starts to really pay attention.  Right now though it's just monitoring, in the knowledge that the market is far weaker than it looks, but not weak enough to get overly alarmed about (at least from the perspective of the HO).  Stay tuned.  As well, if and when the HO does go off I will publish an article on that event on the day it happens.

UPDATED FEB. 25th, 2013 - Just a very short update to point out that as I mentioned on Friday, "... if the markets were to get another massive uplift courtesy of the Fed for whatever reason then the HO would just sit back and monitor the situation without too much concern."  I used the word "massive" and that was unnecessary.

In any case, that is exactly what we're seeing today and as a result the number of new 52 week highs is beginning to climb to more reasonable levels for a market that is so close to all-time highs.  What I found alarming last week was the suddenness with which the number of new 52 week highs plunged when the market pulled back.  In a healthy market, a relatively sharp pullback of 2% like that which we witnessed at the beginning of last week does not normally decimate the number of new 52 week highs like that.

As it stands this morning, with a snap-back rally off Thursday's low being nearly as sharp as the entire decline itself was, the number of new 52 week highs, although much higher today, are still dangerously low for a market that is so close to all-time highs.  In fact, as of this very moment they are still within the range that could theoretically set the HO off.  I do not expect that to happen over the next few days though even if the market were to finish slightly in the red today. The bottom line is that although things seem relatively calm for now, the HO has still got a bit of a buzz on indicating that the markets are not out of danger territory in the slightest.  

We'll continue to monitor the situation on a daily basis but will refrain from making needless updates to this post on an hourly basis.  So please feel free to bookmark this page and check in whenever you like.  Better yet, I've just got hooked up with Twitter and I'll twit a message to all the other twits out there when I do update this particular post.  I've been trying to install a "follow@AlbertarocksTA" button on the blog but without success so far.  However my good and helpful friend JW at TrendXplorer was kind enough to send me an email this morning with instructions on how to do that.  So hopefully I'll get that done today or tomorrow.  In the meantime if you'd like to receive a tweet when I update this post, please feel free to follow @AlbertarocksTA on Twitter.

EDIT BINGO!  And just like that, JW at TrendXplorer comes to my rescue yet again.  Thank you so much JW, your instructions were impeccable and now the 'follow' button has been installed at the top right hand corner of the blog.  Thanks again :-)


UPDATED FEB. 22ND, 2013 - For those who have decided to check in for updates, here's what is going on at the moment.   The main factor that the HO watches for is the number of new 52 week highs and lows generated in any given day on the NYSE.  The minimum number required for each is 2.8% of the total number of issues that traded that day and changed in value.  In other words, issues that are unchanged on the day are ignored.  So on each day the number of new highs and new lows required does fluctuate a bit.  But generally speaking it's usually about 85.  At this very moment that number is 84.

As of 1:30 Eastern there have been 87 new highs generated, so that condition has been met.  Just to give you a bit of perspective on that topic, in a healthy market those numbers generally end up anywhere between 250-600.  Today, even though the NYSE is very near an all-time high, only 87 new highs is nowhere near the number of new highs that the market usually produces when it is healthy.  That's what the HO is looking for.

But with the big bounce today the number of new lows only sits at 14.  Yesterday that number ended up at 42.  The same minimum percentage of new lows is required as well so in order for the HO to go off today, we'd need to see 70 more lows generated today.  And of course it would take a big sell-off here before we'd see that happen.  So even though there are plenty of stocks hanging around within 2% of their own 52 week low, it's not likely that the HO would issue a signal today.  Suffice it to say that if the markets were to get another massive uplift courtesy of the Fed for whatever reason then the HO would just sit back and monitor the situation without too much concern.  It would be prudent though to recognize that even though the HO might not issue a signal, as long as we're seeing so few new highs being generated the markets are somewhat polarized with as many horses trying to pull the wagon downhill as those pulling it uphill.  Not a healthy market environment at all.  We'll keep you posted with fairly minimal updates... just when it gets really dicey.



UPDATED FEB. 21ST, 2013 -  Just adding this update to inform readers that the number of new 52 week highs had, until Tuesday, still been very healthy.  That metric has changed in a hell of a hurry and today the numbers for new highs and lows were 62 and 42 respectively.  These are right in the range where the HO is suddenly sitting up and dusting itself off.  The best news is that this time around the HO is in no danger of going off-line any time soon due to a rule violation (regarding the 50 day MA on the NYSE).  We haven't had that luxury the last few times it got close to issuing a signal.

Keep in mind that contrary to 'any and every' report you've read in recent months, the HO has never gone off since August of 2010.  Every single report you might have read, I also read... and every single one of them was in error because in most cases the HO wasn't even on line at the time.  You can't get a signal from your television if it isn't even plugged into the wall, yet some of the other analysts who are not aware of the very strict rules apparently have the ability to watch TV when it's not plugged in.  A cool trick, but I wouldn't trust the news from a TV like that.

So stay tuned, we'll be updating this post as well as my ongoing reports at Seeking Alpha that have been running for 3 1/2 years now.

What follows below is an article I wrote last November.  We're just going to carry on with it right here on this page and supply the updates here in order to provide continuity.  So please feel free to bookmark this page and stay tuned.

UPDATED NOV. 8TH, 2012 -  Just adding this update to inform readers that the close shaves are continuing.  Repeated 'near misses' represent exactly the same type of activity we saw in the market internals just before the last HO signal events.  That shouldn't necessarily be taken to mean that "a signal is definitely coming" because that's not necessarily the case.  Needless to say though, it's certainly fair warning that regardless of whether the HO actually goes off or not, the markets are obviously on very shaky ground at the moment and are very polarized.  At the close of trading today the NYSE had generated 61 new highs and 85 new lows.  Had it produced 86 of each the HO would have issued a signal.  These types of close shaves should be viewed as being 'near misses' because the message they're delivering is still the same... the markets are on very thin ice right now.  On a side note, there was even one popular blog that 'today' reported that the HO has gone off.  It hasn't.  Right on that website, the author quotes the rules required for the HO to issue a signal and as much as I hate to be the bearer of bad news, those rules are 3 years old.  Nonetheless, that's a nice blog and the author is just another in the long list of innocent TA guys who didn't get the memo back when the rules were changed.  Nobody can blame him for that.  To his credit, he is looking at all the right things and is fully aware of the implications.  He's also probably a very nice man and to top if off, he's a Texan.  Texans and Albertans have always gotten along very well, mainly because of interactions concerning the oil business. :-)


==============  original article follows below  ==============

I'd just like to post this heads up that the Hindenburg Omen came about as close today to issuing its first signal since August of 2010 as we're ever going to see without it actually going off.

Contrary to any and all reports you may have read stating otherwise, the HO has not gone off at any time since that instance back in 2010.  A full explanation about why any previous reports that you may have read were absolutely false will be contained in a full article that will appear on this very page when the HO does issue a signal.  It's all those false claims by analysts who aren't even aware of the HO's rules that give it such a bad name.  It's the real deal, I assure you.  So please stay tuned.

Also, please be aware that this type of "near miss" occurred several times in the days leading up to the HO's signal during the week before and the "morning of" the flash crash.  Don't forget to click the tab at the top of this page if you haven't already done so and read about "So The HO Issues A Signal.  What Happens Next?" Awe to heck with it, just click this thing.

It's still possible the HO won't issue a signal at all, especially if there's some solid buying that enters the market tomorrow and thereafter.  It wouldn't take much to change these market internals dynamics for the positive but until we actually see it, rest assured that the market is extremely polarized and fragile right now.  But until the HO actually goes off, why don't you come on up north and we'll do a little surfing, Canadian style.

Surfin' Like A Boss

Please feel free to bookmark this page and check in regularly since the HO is just starting to hum again and any signal it issues at this stage is almost assuredly going to be the real deal.. 

Stay well!


79 comments:

  1. And here are a couple of non-EW charts looking again at the previous two major tops and comparing how this one will shape up, and how long it will take. Anyone short right now take heart -- it looks like a significant correction will happen soon, but it might not quite yet be THE top.

    http://i.imgur.com/v4Fz1Qw.png
    http://i.imgur.com/1vVQ4IG.png

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks PB.  Those two boxes that are 6 months wide sure do help put things into a little better perspective on those chart don't they?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Cooled my jets down a little bit, I know that. ;) These are really big tops, and they do take some time.

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  4. I'd say that the impressive bearish engulfing candle on the Russell is sure suggesting that.  I'm leaning that way for sure.

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  5. Plus I'm liking Gold UP , euro down scenario

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  6. just look at the friggin YEN!!!

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  7. So I go to CNBC to see what's up with the Yen, and over on the right the video player says "Topless women protest Berlusconi," and my mind goes blank of course and auto-Boule kicks in and clicks the video and I sit through the Dubai commercial and then this lady starts talking about the Italian elections and then finally something about topless women protesters and the video starts and the women look like they could be hot but they are so upset and screaming and being pushed around by police and I feel sorry for them and want to help them and hope they're okay maybe they could use a cookie and hot cocoa and it's not hot don't bother.


    What were you saying about the Yen?

    ReplyDelete
  8. 1488.39 close. I might peek in my trading account tomorrow to see if there's any green in the perpetual wheel of red. ;)

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  9. too funny
    The Berlusconi Top?or maybe  Berlusconi is now Topless

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  10. Good work bro. Perfect timing.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Not really.  This market has been topless for 51 months now.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Why don't you wait a day or two.  It'll be even greener.

    ReplyDelete
  13. This morning I tweeted that TMF was a buy.  Put a stop in at $64.98.  I did just that and at $66.02 I doubled my bet.  It closed the day at $68.46, up 5.71%.  So far so good.

    ReplyDelete
  14. This morning I tweeted that TMF was a buy.  Put a stop in at $64.98.  I
    did just that and at $66.02 I doubled my bet.  It closed the day at
    $68.46, up 5.71%.  So far so good.

    ReplyDelete
  15. This morning I tweeted that TMF was a buy.  Put a stop in at $64.98.  I
    did just that and at $66.02 I doubled my bet.  It closed the day at
    $68.46, up 5.71%.  So far so good.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Kind of expanding on that "periscope" chart earlier in the thread, here's a closer look at a possibility. Again, this bubble is an intervention bubble, so it could end differently than the other two. The timing is just guessing based on what looks right compared to the other two major tops.

    http://i.imgur.com/Vz9Hj6h.png

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  17. Positions update. yen pair shorts: booking some profits. Will let the rest ride. Waiting for a pullback in usd to add to usd longs.

    ReplyDelete
  18. I can't really find any bearish comments on cnbc, it's all just "buy the dips", "it's the correction we need to make the bull market stronger". This makes me feel better about my short ES position ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  19. That was an amazing collapse ... 350 pips in less than 24 hours!
    Well-timed good sir, I sure wish I'd seen the light in time to join you short instead of just get stopped out of my longs.

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  20.  That makes 4 distribution days out of 6 for the US equities ... 3 out of 5-7 is enough for IBD (Investors Business Daily) to issue top calls.  The volume on these distribution days is an unambiguous top signal.

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  21. That potential outcome doesn't look out of character at all.  I'd say it's entirely possible.  In fact we might be better off if we 'expect' it... or something like it.  You know... to keep us on our toes.

    ReplyDelete
  22. I have no problem being short either when the likes of Bozo the Cramer get up on their pedestals and start spewing this kind of nonsense

    ReplyDelete
  23. AR, I hope it's ok for me to share my thoughts posted on PL's site FWIW. You know I turned bearish last week so here is my follow up...

    Market Update: February 26th, 2013

    At this point, we only have a 3 wave decline from the highs in the SPX and 1 wave decline in the DJIA. No major trendline support has been broken. The SPX retested the ED trendline again in what I expect to be the final kiss goodbye but none of this is confirmed until we see bearish follow through. First trendline support comes at 1475 (green line) which corresponds to the wave (3) high on the chart... Previous resistance becomes support. Next support levels are 1450 and 1400. That said, it doesn't stretch the imagination too far to see a potential Beard-testimony inspired rally immediately to new highs. That's why my GTFO level is above 1525 (ES) which would be the only level to confirm a corrective move was in play. With nicely timed entries, I have minimal risk up there if I'm wrong about the ED thesis. As Furr says, these are volatile times but all I read on CNBS is that we should all "buy the dips and prepare for new highs" but I think everyone is already "all-in" long. Who's left to buy exactly? Maybe they're right and I'll lose a few points, but if they're wrong, there is nothing but vapor and Fed liquidity holding this house of cards up. As I posted yesterday, Thursday has a net $68bln being sucked out of the system by the Treasury, so if we don't bounce by then, the bearish odds increase rapidly. To the charts...

    SPX Daily - Here are the facts:
    1. We have an outside day key reversal today on all equity market indices including the SPX and HYG 
    2. A failed retest of the ED trendline
    3. RSI and MACD divergence at recent highs on all timeframes
    4. We have reversed all of February's gains in one day
    5. SPX 60m - MACD zero line reversal at today's highs

    The market will ultimately tell us where it's going, but for now, it has yet to show its hand. Trade safe :)

    PS: normally I'd be taking partial profits here, but occasionally you have to go "all-in" to see if the emperor has no clothes

    http://screencast.com/t/uBbQPUGp5lr7

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  24. I made some coin in the summer of '11 (also a year when I discovered Dan's blog and AB as a poster), shorting SPY at eod when I saw massive parabolic ramp ups in the last 15 minutes of a market trading day. 

    Chart 2 - August 2011, each intermediate reversal to the downside had a large parabolic ramp up in the day prior, like the one I saw this past friday.

    Chart 1 - Feb 22nd, EOD was a good time to have gone short (nevermind the weird pre-dump pop upwards this morning)

    Any thoughts on this dynamic? I always just presumed it was large scale short covering due to market juicing by the fed... with the smart-smart money buying the shorts that are being covered.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Do you want me to delete that comment so you can post it under your other name?  The email addy didn't show up as promised but for some reason your name did.  Depends how you sign in.  We can take care of this immediately if you like.

    ReplyDelete
  26. It's almost impossible to know what to do when the bastards goose the market for an opening gap.  Do we fade that or is it the beginning of another 50 point rally?  We just never know because the bankers have broken this market down so badly that it's nothing more than a casino these days.  I can't wait until the day we start to see the likes of Citigroup collapse.  I realize that would be bad for 'everybody' because it would also be the beginning of a major deflationary collapse.  But that's coming anyway and when it does, I hope to hell that the entire Rothschilds cabal burns to a crisp.

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  27. Quick but possibly significant update.
    Gracias.
    DK

    http://dkdeathorglory.blogspot.com.au/

    ReplyDelete
  28. The bulls out there should take note of the 30yr bond futures chart. My count has us starting wave 5 higher to new highs after a very clear corrective decline. This chart supports my bearish equities view. Maybe it's just confirmation bias? We'll see...

    http://screencast.com/t/90EWibHNisNS

    ReplyDelete
  29. Nice chart!  (2) as a DZZ?  Whatever the true internal structure, it has a pretty "simple" look to it--leaving plenty of room to be gunshy that (4) could only be (a)/(w) of (4).

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  30. Thanks Mars.  I like that.  I came to the same conclusion a few days back and went long TMF which is the triple short on the 20 Yr. treasuries.  Doubled down when it took off only moments after my first entry and now we're sitting with a gain locked in at the very minimum.

    Here's a weekly chart of $UST (10 yr. treasury).  There's nothing bearish about this chart that I can see anywhere.  In fact there is a positive divergence in the works that has measurable implications.  I'm not quite sure what to think the implication might be for equities since the Fed has been buying both markets.  But normally when bonds rise stocks fall.  But rising bonds also mean falling rates and that's bullish for stocks.  I must be having a brain phart tonight 'cause I'm not getting that at the moment, lol.

    ReplyDelete
  31. In case anyone else is as slow on the uptake as me, as a follow-up to this, I noticed over at DK's that Mars posted a chart of AUD/Yen since 1971.  Thanks Mars!

    ReplyDelete
  32. Yup... and DK was looking for just that.  Mars came riding into town at just about the right time I'd say.  I think those two are going to get along great.  They're the same type of person kind of, very cordial and pretty darned sharp.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Thanks for the update very good sir!
    And it would be a very good time for that indicator to give us a warning.

    And it would be a very good warning signal.
    But things are acting very toppy.
    Bonds exploding UP (courtesy of Japanese investors bailing on their toxic bonds).
    Safe stocks leading.
    Currencies going haywire.
    Earnings season upon us. Not likely going to be good with front loading on Q4 possibile.

    May upon us.


    The only thing holding it together is the greater fool theory.

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