UPDATE: Jan. 16th, 2012
DISQUS IS INSTALLED!
After chatting briefly with BrightFire, I thought I'd put together one space where friends could gather to chat about anything related to markets. Kind of a general meeting place where you drop off a comment for whomever you want. I put up no charts, set no stage and suggest no topic. As it turns out, several friends have dropped in from time to time but they been spread all over the place. But I know that they know each other. Now that Blogger is providing a way for me to respond to comments in a way that they are at least threaded properly, it might be a bit more convenient. I'm also entertaining the idea of installing the Disqus format so that readers can reply to each other in a properly threaded format. But we'll see. I also don't really have the time nor the inclination to run a message board or chat room but it does no harm to offer the space. Maybe the friends who want to get together in a nice quiet place will gather. It's a courtesy as much as anything else... simply a nice alternative for those who prefer to chat in a respectful environment.
|So grab yourself a pint and fire away. |
Would you like to exchange links? I have added your site to mine.ReplyDelete
Holy trollmageddon over at that other place. And to think we'd thought they'd really crossed the line weeks ago!ReplyDelete
Trollmageddon indeed. I mean, it got to the point where I just started laughing, in a madman finally losing his last marble kind of way. What else could I do? It just went off the deep end and I myself contributed some humor where I could because it just went so far beyond ridiculous that it actually started getting outright hilarious. Ruined, but hilarious. In fact did you see the video of BoboM and Wagner duking it out? Just click the 'video' tab at the top of the page and look for "funny boxing". I've just given up on hope for any kind of civility to last longer than about 45 seconds over there. It's just so sad really. If it weren't for the fact that I have some really good friends over there, I would have bailed long, long ago. As it is, it's been a long, long time since I contributed any charts or observations to speak of. I pretty much just keep my mouth shut now (compared to what I used to offer at least). There are so many good and talented folk who just aren't there any more. In fact, Vagner even tried to infiltrate this site with a taunt, in which he gave me his email address and invited a fight. Can you believe that joker? So I shot him in the face with the big troll gun and he's gone from this blog for life.Delete
He also tried posting on my blogs at Seeking Alpha under a different name, and started talking quite highly of Wagner, lol. By the way, I have 100% concrete evidence that it's the same dude talking. He even went to far as to say, and I quote "It seems like veteran traders such as you and "Mike Wagner" get run-off by all of the Trolls (and college kids) that don't even trade... but seek validation thru posting." How dare he put my name and his name in the same sentence? He was trying to imply that he and I were friends or equals or something. We will never be either, lol.
Yeah, I see where your trend line is coming from. Nice clean chart by the way. Do you know what is just outstandingly glaring to me on your chart? It's that the move up from the Nov. 28th low is either a set of 1-2, 1-2s setting up or else it's a corrective 'abc' that's darned near complete. If that thing turns out to be an impulse, I'll wear your underwear on my head for a month. But I'm so damned suspicious of the monsters who control this damned market that I'm thinking something like this could also evolve. What do you think? Do you think the 'c' wave is nearly done or could it evolve into an ending diagonal in a 'c' position?
Thanks AR. I definitely find it best to ignore them, but I have the luxury of not having them invade my "turf." What you've described is absolutely pathetic on their part.Delete
As for wave counts, there are certainly better authorities than I who could opine, but I think the short answer is yes. My perspective is that of EWP--other varieties of EW may offering harshly conflicting views.
The double zigzag count that's widely posted corresponds to your unevolved 'c.' Even though 'a' is a ZZ (not motive), the retracement of 'b' (<90%) prevents the larger 'a-b-c' structure from being labelled as a flat. Therefore, 'c' wouldn't be allowed to evolve into a motive wave (ending diagonal), but there are ways it can evolve into a corrective five legged structure. Since "double and triple zigzags take the place of zigzags," 'c' could evolve into one of those (EWP, 91). Or rather than being a double ZZ, the whole 'a-b-c' structure you've identified could become a "three," or "double three," or "triple three." That entails using w, x, and y's (and likely another x and a z). Like extensions of extensions of extensions, this is an area where EW allows for quite the imagination to fit what you've already pointed out (without the same mess of alphabetic characters) is a possible reality.
I couldn't agree more about the 1-2's. It amuses me greatly to see those with a bullish bias hammer the bears for counting 1-2's down while those with a bearish bias hammer the bulls for counting 1-2's up. Of course, I've picked a side, so I'm not without a strong opinion, but I like to think acknowledging my bias is a whole lot less dangerous than claiming my view to be "objective."
As PretzelLogic pointed out, taking out 1285 was a nice first step. But I'm hardly ready to say we're out of the woods yet...
Broader context for that line; note the pseudo-channels corresponding to the various periods of hope of financially "engineered" prosperity...Delete
Thanks again Zimmer. I read Prechter's books a long, long time ago along with so many more that I've forgotten half of them. I probably should have read Elliott's instead. In fact I don't even know where those books are anymore. Most likely in one of dozens of boxes of books I have lying around at about a dozen different locations. I do remember that I got a whole lot out of John Murphy's books too.Delete
You know, as much as I find EWT to be very interesting and even helpful every once in a while, and even though some of my best friends on the interweb (or whatever it's called) are very serious practitioners of it, I find it to be the single most damaging and destructive thing I've ever come across as far as my technical analysis and trading account is concerned. Beyond the shadow of a doubt, basic old TA 101 works 457 times better, at least for me.
The problem I find is that EWT almost seems like a cruel practical joke perpetrated on all of us by that guy with one of the wackiest senses of humor of all time, Mr. Ralph Elliott himself. I mean it seems that every single wave on every single time frame can have a bullish connotation or a bearish connotation and then 3 minutes late, it all of a sudden has a bullish meaning once again, as long as it doesn't rise above this level or that level. But wait... it just did, so now it has a bullish connotation but 3 minutes later a red candle will form and holy shit, the bulls are toast, lol. It sickens me to be honest. It creates nightmares and indecision, shakes one's confidence to the very core, and can make a person feel really, really insignificant when the market just does what it wants to do and ruins all his visions. None of those negatives in a person's life need be happening. Emotionally, EWT is very, very damaging, destructive to one's ego, his own feeling of worth. I'm being very serious about that... it seems that it was almost designed to make practitioners feel as dumb as possible at all times. In no way do I say that to denigrate practitioners of EWT... some of them are the brightest people I know and many of them are truly good friends of mine. I respect them immensely. Especially for their "staying power". They are true troopers, no question about that.
Having said that though, I absolutely do subscribe to the general theory of it all, that we are about to embark upon a journey into deflationland, the likes of which the world has never even imagined yet, let alone experienced. I also fully subscribe to Kondratiev's waves.
Yeah, it's funny how one crowd hammers the other for seeing the exact same thing on a chart if he calls it in the wrong direction, lol. That's what biases do to us. Our biases can also kill us financially, but it's very, very difficult to shake them isn't it. I'm glad you found Pretzel's place. He's got a style that is pretty rare... great with charts and even better with words. And a real decent human being on top of it all. Nice to see you as always bud. Go grab yourself another beer.
If you don't have luck finding the hard copies, EWI has a free ebook copy of EWP and I've managed to find pdf's of "R.N. Elliott's Masterworks" floating around. Frost & Prechter summarize it all so nicely, but, lately, I've found myself thinking more and more in terms of passages from The Wave Principle and Nature's Law. I've yet to read Elliott's "market letters," but am sure every day I delay doing so is to my detriment.Delete
I like to think of the various branches of TA as construction trades. There's carpenters, masons, electricians, etc. I may not have the slightest clue how to use your trowel or multimeter, but, dammit, someday, I'll build a house out of the mud I'm stirring with this broken stick!
I'm off for the weekend--hope you have a great one up north & thanks as always for the meeting spot!
I'm in the middle of RN Elliott's Nature's Law. Downloaded the PDF after someone posted a link on that other blog last year. Was it you - can't remember. If so, thanks. If not, thanks for mentioning it during our discussion about truncated Y's in a complex correction. It kind of inspired me to finally read it.
I'm in chapter 3 now, but I was skipping around at first. Interestingly, Elliott predicted in his long term count that the Grand Supercycle would complete this year in 2012. He was basing it on equality with supercycle wave 3 which ran 70 years. Of course, Pretcher dimissed it in the footnotes because wave 3 is always longer than wave 5 (except when it isn't).
The more I read it the more I'm convinced what a genius he was.
Hey Alberta, glad you have a spot where you can have some peace!!!ReplyDelete
Hi Mikey. Nice to hear your voice. I've missed ya. While you're here, do you have any idea why, when I add your site to my blog roll it appears there ok, but it's a dead link? I've tried to add it half a dozen times and the same thing happens. Here, I'll put it up right now and see if it works for you...Delete
When I click your site from the blog roll, Firefox gives this message: "Firefox has detected that the server is redirecting the request for this address in a way that will never complete."Delete
Alberta, I checked the link and it is a feed, google does not like sites that are not part of google, LOL!!ReplyDelete
Yeah, I've seen a message as well that says something like "no feed detected". So how can I add you to the blog roll effectively? I certainly want your name there and have from day one.Delete
Just testing here buddy. I've installed the Disqus thingy but so far I'm not sure it's working the way I want it. If you reply to this comment it should be threaded the way we like it. If that doesn't happen then I'll uninstall Disqus and try again after a cooling off period. I have a very short fuse when it comes to stuff like this, lol. But I catch on quickly and should be ok in a week or so.ReplyDelete
Ok, gonna try to add a link here and see if it works:
Would you do me a favour? Try logging out of Disqus and back in again to see if your avatar works. By the way, I've changed the default avatar from that silly sillouette thingy to 'assface'... just a reminder to people that maybe they should get properly hooked up with an avatar, lol
Ok, here we go. The Disqus thing is installed but I haven't had time yet to discover all it's inner workings. I think I've got it set up more or less the way we want it but haven't had time to make sure of that. So don't be disappointed or surprised if I disable it... it will only be temporary... hopefully.ReplyDelete
First of all, I have to acknowledge the help of our friend JW over at TrendXplorer: http://indexswingtrader.blogspot.com/
He hooked me up with links to some very helpful videos that I've reviewed a time or two before I actually set Disqus up. He also offered a few tips and gave me his thoughts on the troll gun. It seems plenty powerful enough. Having said that, absolutely nobody has to be concerned about it as long as they don't start attacking other people with mean spirited, insulting comments that are intended to do nothing other than to disrupt a blog. Every single one of you knows what type of behavior I'm talking about. It's simple common sense. I don't intend to police anything other than that or extremely foul words, or mean spirited insults to women, or nasty words that refer to a nationality. You can call me a Canuck but you can't say to me "way to go Jew". Besides, I'm not Jewish. But you know what I mean. IOW, I invite criticism of my own opinions, I invite discussion amongst yourselves, arguments are none of my business, etc. But please don't let them descend into the depths we're all too familiar with.
So grab yourselves a beer and let's see what happens.
Oh... the avatar thing. Once you log into Disqus, the default avatar should switch to your own. If you don't log in, then you'll have to be assigned the default avatar. On most sites it's the silhouette thing. I changed that boring thing up a bit, lol.
I posted one for your charts on that other blog today.
Hope you don't mind.
Here's the test. I think it works. Great no assface!ReplyDelete
AR, I tried to mention earlier - on the other blog, I posted a chart of yours in response to Greg's question. Didn't even think to ask you. I hope it was OK.
Just overly stoked about your chart. I don't want to embarrass you or belabor the point, but can't thank you enough. Just today that indicator kept me on the right side of this afternoon's Euro pop.
No problem Greener. I'm sorry for not getting back to you sooner but I was at work tonight. I also had a problem in that I could see your comment in another area of this blog (an administration area) shortly after you'd left it, but it wasn't showing up here on this page. So I wasn't able to respond. For some reason I can see this comment of yours now though (obviously) so I can reply. But I haven't even had time yet to do some investigation to see whether I have a problem or not, since I've been back for only about 4 minutes. I'll get to work on it now.ReplyDelete
About your posting one of my charts... feel free. I haven't even had a chance to see which chart it was, but by time you read this, I will have had the chance to check it out. Whatever chart it was, I'm so glad it helped you out. A small blessing for both of us.
hey bud, glad to see disqus cuz I don't do the other stuff. Here's one for your arsenal. Gonna get a signal real soon.ReplyDelete
Hi Jack. Jesus, I wouldn't want say that too loud at an airport would I?. I don't blame you, I don't like any of the other 'flat' formats either. And the way Blogger was threading comments was no good because it was only threading readers' comments to mine and not to each other. But Disqus has definitely slowed down the loading of these pages.ReplyDelete
Thanks for the chart. Have you tried any other MAs with that one? I noticed that you're using EMAs. SMAs are a tad smoother, so maybe a SMA for the faster moving average would smooth it out a wee bit. I guess what I'd be after is some way to decrease the number of 'scares' it might produce. But that's a gooder, thanks.
yeah, I avoid the social media formats intentionally. Played around with the ma's but these gave the best crosses/signals nearer the turns. Hear ya on the whipsaws, but really no way to filter those out of any ma system as far as i know. Just part of the game.ReplyDelete
Jack, just so I know... are you the same Jack who posted a few comments under the name "Anonymous", and then signed "Jack" at the end of your comment? I'm assuming that was you.ReplyDelete
And secondly, there is a fellow named Trader Jack who's following me but I don't even really understand where he's doing that. But it shows up in the Disqus dashboard. That's not you is it?
trader jack, someone else. anonymous jack, that is me. Boy oh boy, is this 2 top a tough one!ReplyDelete
AR, just a comment on the format you have designed.....I see you jumping helter skelter from one topic to another responding to commenters...gonna make you crazy. Where is the best place to have a current market commentary on your site? just askin'.ReplyDelete
Goodie, now I know. I thought that was you Jack. Thanks for hooking up with an avatar by the way Yes, this wave (whatever it is) is what I like to call a BITCH.ReplyDelete
But I guess that's the personality of wave 2s isn't it. Like Danno says, "it wants to be a wave 3". I don't think this is a wave 3, I do think it's a 2. If anything, I'd say that it this isn't a wave 2, then it's wave one of a massive wave higher which would be the real wave 3. IOW, the market had better do what we all think it's going to do, or we're looking at a whole messed up world with the S&P headed toward 1500 probably. I'm gonna give this thing to 1305 and then I want (and fully expect) to see 1270 get taken out in about 6 freakin' minutes, lol.
Yeah, that's exactly the problem I was addressing by making this page "Where Friend Gather". I think of it kind of like the local pub (a quiet one) where we can gather. If you glance to your right, you'll see the picture of the empty beer mug, right? That's what appears when the post gets too big and we've moved on to another one. Much like Danno's site, only he calls them E-minis and Updates. You're in the right spot, right now.ReplyDelete
So once this page gets too full and I change over to another 'pub', you'll see the full mug of nice frosty beer and the beer mug at the top of this page will appear as empty. Go to where the beer is man, lol. As well, if you accidentally go to the wrong pub (with a picture of an empty beer mug), I will have placed a message that the gang has gone to a new pub and will post a link to it that will take you right there. Also, if you glance at the caption below the picture at the top of this page, you'll see that I've also placed a link to the 'last' pub we were at, just in case somebody wants to leaf through all the pubs. They'll all be linked together like that.
At first, there were very few people commenting here and when they 'did' comment, it was usually pertaining to the chart or article that was the topic of that page. But now, "Where Friends Gather" is the place to be for general chat like this. And not necessarily for chat with 'me', I'm busy enough as it is, but chat with 'each other as well'.
keep an eye on the last hour today...good shot at the possibility of a gravestone doji, close near unchanged...quite ominous if we get it since it will have followed a hangman on Friday...both bearish candles. GL...we're getting close, gap up with no follow through.ReplyDelete
You're a mind reader man. That's exactly what I was thinking. I'll be more convinced if we see 1279 taken out.ReplyDelete
Nice chart, Jack. Did you ever try $ONE:$CPC? My head starts aching every time I have to think up-side-down ;-)ReplyDelete
You know what JW? If I'm not mistaken your is the first post here that is between two people where I was not involved. Finally. Nice :-)ReplyDelete
For anybody else reading this... this is the dude who helped me so much to get Disqus installed. Thanks again JW. I still haven't gotten around to doing much with that ratio we talked about the other day, but I did work with some charts on it today. I need time and inspiration to write bigger stuff, but it's certainly a great pair to work with. Thanks for the tip and please be patient with me on it.
By the way people, you can hit "like" buttons here if you're so inclined and your identity is not revealed. I think forcing them to be revealed is polarizing. Mind you, that would only occur if the joint got really troll infested or became somewhat 'tribal' for some reason. I'd even prefer that it doesn't become 'tribal' because really, all of us are after the same thing. If it's time to go long, each and every one of us has the right to go long without criticism. And of course the opposite is true. We're here to make money, help each other make money and that's the bottom line. The troll thing just ain't gonna happen here. So it's up to you folks. I can set it to reveal the "like"s if you want.ReplyDelete
Hi AR, a moment ago, while under the shower, I suddenly had to think about your MA-calculator. Weird thoughts for the showers? Yes, yes, I know. Shaving and showering can be such a brainhitters ;-)ReplyDelete
Well, I was thinking about your calculator, because I wanted to know if and when Silver would have its 50MA and the 400MA (!!!) cross. They are only 0.1 point apart today. Then agent Smith entered (luckily not in the shower, but in my brain): the cross is inevitable, mr JW.
Nice to be able to show what I mean. Cheers!
JW, the calculator can only figure out the exact number required for theReplyDelete
next candle... IOW what price it would take for that crossover to
happen tomorrow. And of course the reason for that
is that since we don't know any further inputs beyond today, it can go
no further than just one candle. That's why it's better for a weekly
thing. Secondly, the chart you provided is the futures and I can't get
at the data I need. So I calculated it based on the silver spot price
and in order for that cross to happen tomorrow, spot
silver would need to close at $7.40, lol.
Gonna give you a "like" here. It's not supposed to show up that it was me who did it. But apparently Disqus isn't obeying that configuration either. Jesus, Disqus really is a bit of a miserable pig.ReplyDelete
Ya know something, this EW shit is mental masturbation. Sticking with ma's and above all else the MACD and ya got much of it licked. All the rest is just fine tuning. Seriously, the MACD is probably the best indicator ever developed. Combine that with the histo and the extreme point rule, and you can catch moreReplyDelete
short term tops and bottoms than trying to figure ew's. Again, seriously examine what you have witnessed over the last 2 yrs. at Danerics site. He's one helluva wave counter, one of the best in his overall analysis. But you would have been better off trading a daily MACD. Nothing fancy, trade the cross and manage your risk. And to boot, you will avoid all the children and their posts. Sure, you think I am polite, and I attempt to be civil, but you have no idea how I have to hold myself back. You have so much knowledge and for some reason, I'll leave unquestioned,
you feel a need to share, but if you are seriously trying to make a buck at trading, all that shit that takes place in DE site is going to negatively effect your outcomes. Isn't your mind getting screwed up enough by what the central banks and politicans are doing? Mine is.
.....and if the bastards screw up the internet, you will not see me calling in my orders to some fooking "customers man". I'll take my marbles and play elsewhere. and for some reason your site freezes up on me ever fookin' time I try to post.ReplyDelete
AR, have to rush to work. So this one is very brief.ReplyDelete
The cross did happen overnight!
It would have taken a jump to $ 10,000 (as Mitch Keller commented) per once to prevent that.
Have a nice day!
Lol. Yeah, you and I had both stated that that cross was inevitable. So is the cross on the spot silver although it won't happen tomorrow (unless my calculator broke, lol). It's going to get very close though even if silver were to rise by a buck. So what conclusion are you coming to with that crossover? I've got a hunch you're seeing the possibility of Silver at 20 before it hits $40.ReplyDelete
You have a great day too!
Jack, Disqus is driving everybody nuts tonight. As I mentioned below, Pretzel is having troubles with it too. It's causing double posts, refuses to open the comment box, tells me my comment has to be approved by the moderator when I *amReplyDelete
* the moderator. And as you said, it happens every fookin' time. It's driving me nuts probably more than it's driving you nuts because I have to deal with it with every commenter. For example, I saw that one comment was submitted by Inursha, but it still hasn't shown up on this page so I can't even respond to him. So far, Disqus has caused far more trouble than it's worth. I'd say it's on thin ice already. I might be literally forced to delete it and just go with what Blogger offers or just say fuck it and disable the commenting altogether. I might even shut this blog down and transfer it all to Wordpress. Wordpress is ugly, but it works.
How come you did not have a cross on your Silver spot chart? Indeed I was only looking at the futures, but now I checked spot prices. On my (other) platform ProRealTime the down cross of the 50MA below the 400MA did happen no later than last Friday (see chart), while you are saying the inevitable cross won't happen tomorrow (so you are speaking in the future, while in the mean time I'm talking in the past ...) Are we talking at cross purposes? Or do you mean the crossing back above the 400MA?ReplyDelete
Your hunch considering my downside target is correct. I'm looking for around $18, but I wouldn't be surprised if Silver first starts hugging the 400MA for some time. $18 seems to be about where Silver started its recent "mania". So that's were I expect it to end. Whatever my ideas, I have to follow my system. At this moment its says stay neutral on Silver.
PS. I too had a lot of trouble with Disqus last night. Here and at Daneric's too. Very annoying to say the least.
"How come you did not have a cross on your Silver spot chart"
Well as I mentioned yesterday regarding *spot* silver, the 50 day MA would not cross below the 400 day MA today on the New York market (Wednesday) unless spot silver hit $7.40. Spot silver did not hit $7.40 today and that's why the cross didn't happen.
For tomorrow, at end of trading on the NY markets, the 50 day MA will not cross below the 400 day MA unless silver closes at $13.45 or lower. Obviously that's not going to happen, so the cross isn't going to happen tomorrow either. But it's getting closer... it's just a matter of another couple of days I'd guess.
Are you saying that you have a chart that shows that the cross of the 50 below the 400 for *spot* silver *did* happen? If so, I can't see it.
"I too had a lot of trouble with Disqus last night. Here and at Daneric's too. Very annoying to say the least."
So did I. Pretzel had troubles on his site as well and he seems to hate Disqus as much as I do. The trouble is that people start bitching at 'me' about it as if I could do anything to fix that very unreliable platform. As I replied to Jack last night (above) :
"Jack, Disqus is driving everybody nuts tonight. As I mentioned below,
Pretzel is having troubles with it too. It's causing double posts,
refuses to open the comment box, tells me my comment has to be approved
by the moderator when I *am* the moderator. And as you said, it happens
every fookin' time. It's driving me nuts probably more than it's
driving you nuts because I have to deal with it with every commenter.
For example, I saw that one comment was submitted by Inursha, but it
still hasn't shown up on this page so I can't even respond to him. So
far, Disqus has caused far more trouble than it's worth. I'd say it's
on thin ice already. I might be literally forced to delete it and just
go with what Blogger offers or just say screw it and disable the
commenting altogether. I might even shut this blog down and transfer it
all to Wordpress. Wordpress is ugly, but it works."
Hey Greenface...just saw this.ReplyDelete
Stoked you're diggin' on the RN! I really like EWP when I'm looking for a more straightforward, concisely worded answer, but increasingly, I find reading Elliott's original stuff to be more thought-provoking. It can be dangerous considering the changes he developed between 1938 and 1946, but his "The Wave Principle" is a really good read too.
Thanks for all your great comments here and elsewhere--rest assured I take note when I see your name.
Lines, lines, everywhere there's linesReplyDelete
Fuckin' up the scenery, breakin' my mind
Yeah cool man. I'll tackle TWP next.ReplyDelete
Look forward to your posts as well
Were you the one with the silver ratio studies?
Thanks for the signs and lines Zimmer. The Graffiti Hot Line one made the Pepsi shoot outta my nose especially good. I'm thinking a little bit more along these lines.ReplyDelete
Yeah, all Diqsuc's work...maybe it is good for something!ReplyDelete
Of course, as soon as I go whining to 'you' about it, the little + sign reappeared when I opened another reply box. I guess when you open a reply box, you only get a chance to use that thing once. If you go back to edit your comment, it no longer shows up I guess. At least Disqus is working way better than last night. Last night it just about drove Inursha, me and Jack all crazy. I made it through by the skin of my teeth, but the other guys didn't, lol.ReplyDelete
See... aren't ya glad you brought your avatar over here with you? If you hadn't, you'd be stuck with the default avatar. Most sites use that stupid grey generic silhouette thingy for the default. But I changed that up a bit, lol. I did it to encourage guys like our friend Zimmer to get an avatar. This is actually a picture of Mike Vagner which I thought was very suitable as the default assface. No offense to you Zimmer. I luv ya and you know it, lol.ReplyDelete
Hi AR, to close our little "cross" discussion, I finally get what's causing the confusion (at least I was). Just did a check on the 50 and 400MA silver spot on Stochcharts and now I understand your statement. In Stockcharts there was indeed no cross, while in PRT's chart the cross already happened. And that's why you can't see it (yet), while I already did. We were looking at different charts and should seen an equal picture, but didn't. My personal conclusion is to be more critical at the charts ProRealTime generates.ReplyDelete
Ok enough, let's move on or do we drink a pint first?
You've got it wrong--I was the model for that pic! It's why I feel so at home with it as an avatar :) (that smile was on an ass. I'd already taken off the glasses).ReplyDelete
Yeah, it was my fault.ReplyDelete
Great stuff Zim.
5 min Euro EDT
Not exactly perfect, but not terrible for 5 min
Now I see--thanks for setting me straight!ReplyDelete
We drink a pint first ;-)ReplyDelete
Geez... you mean I owe Vagner an apology? Uhhhh... ain't gonna happen, lol.ReplyDelete
You guys remember this chart from a couple of days ago, right? Well here's how it looks <a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p93644352013&a=253771742:><b>now</b></a>. I'm becoming less and less convinced that the deflationary scenario is going to develop at all. If the S&P puts in a retracement something similar to what I've drawn here in blue, then I'm going to give up on the deflationary argument altogether. The implications for inflation are absolutely horrid but if that's what the global power brokers have decided to do, then apparently all of Europe can go bankrupt for all they care... they'll just print. Apparently a total bankruptcy by Greece is no big deal. Apparently downgrades of France and Spain is no big deal. Obviously the downgrade of the USA was just laughed off. I would have to conclude (if the market takes the blue path), that it's becoming clear that nothing matters. I mean, literally <i>nothing freaking matters</i>. I'm talking about $4,000 gold in very short order. Commodities will go right through the roof and we'll see the CRX chart reverse and head higher with a vengeance. Holders of equities will see their holding double in dollar value, but at the same time be totally decimated in real terms.ReplyDelete
Since 1999, oil has risen something like 787% as much as equities have to date. If the equities markets take the path I've drawn in blue, we're going to see that repeated. Equities could double over the next 5 years but gold and oil would rise 1000% in the same time period. People would literally starve all around the world by the tens of millions. That's what these bastards are preparing to do it looks like to me. But let's just wait and see how the next correction shapes up. I'm starting to actually believe that the blue path is the one that's more likely after all. P3 higher.
We got a pullback in the European session, so now it gets easier.ReplyDelete
Either that really was a c wave and we drop to new lows, or its a 3rd wave and we're off to the races with the long awaited short squeeze.
I admittedly have my preference, but it's better to be profitable than to be right.
On an hourly basis, measured from the 1202.37 low, Thursday's SPX high was an exact delta-sub-s (1+SQRT(2)) projection of the duration of the move from 1158.67 to 1267.06.ReplyDelete
Yay It's really satisfying when price and time resonate.ReplyDelete
Looks like it may be a gap down though so we'll see what happens after the open.
Zim, I know money's money and philosophy doesn't pay the bills. But do you ever wonder if there is a reason for so much alignment with the silver ratio and its derivatives? A deeper meaning or reason?
I've never been one to believe "everything happens for a reason," but I do think there is a reason for everything that happens. That's a much different statement than claiming knowledge of why, however...ReplyDelete
Silver ratio relationships wouldn't be worth the trouble of pointing out if I thought they were merely coincidental, but I can't prove otherwise either. It could also be that the Pell sequence is nothing more than a sloppy imitation of basic exponential growth.
I continue to be struck by how much Elliott decoded within market movements, but how much "the time element" eluded him. We've seen incredible work by Prechter to pick up where Elliott left off with the Fibonacci sequence. Carolan's model is shockingly good too. There's Armstrong's Pi cycle & plenty of other research I'm sure I'm ignorant to.
Silver ratio relationships seem to me to be one more drop in the bucket revealing how rational explanations of markets rely on irrational numbers. There's been such an explosion in quantitative analysis in recent decades drawing from all sorts of mundane and extravagant fields of mathematics. They ultimately seem like statistical analysis and back-testing to me--which isn't a bad thing, just an attempt to define their scope. (Maybe I'll come to regret that overly-reductive statement later)
I like to think about analogies to the revolution in poker as basic probability analysis developed. It's a necessary model because the dealer and other players are hiding their cards from us. I wonder, in financial markets, if the cards are really hidden, or if we haven't yet figured out how to turn them over (or mark them), find the mirrors behind the other guys, or predict the precise order of shuffling. These are pie-in-the-sky sort of ideas, but you don't move by staying stuck in the same place.
If I had to guess, I'd say we're not yet scratching the surface in applying number theory to financial markets. It seems that every time I open Concrete Mathematics, there's some new place where I wonder, why aren't we doing that? But then, I have a lot of wonder (aka confusion) about a lot of things...
Not sloppy at all Zim. The silver ratio turn out to be an excellent analogue of natural growth. See this link:ReplyDelete
.618 yields the perfect distribution of seeds
.707 is the next best array
I utilize the .707 and 1.414 ratios a lot in price retracements and extensions, so that's why I was pretty excited about your time study and how you pointed out the relationship between Pell & Fibonacci.
It still bugs me that while Fibonacci has a foundation in the natural world, the Pell sequence seems be inhabit mostly our interpretation of the world. Lots of cool links to geometry with some possible ancillary connections, but nothing like the sacred geometry of the golden mean.
Like for example, sinusoidal movement is known to occur in ocean waves, sound waves, and mechanical energy. The square root of 2 is the root mean square of a sine wave peak-to peak value of –1 to 1. This is perhaps related to standard deviation of price movements. so if, as Gann said, price squares with time, than maybe a time relationship with its derivatives emerges.
Just a thought. Speaking of Gann, your work reminded me of someone else I've been following who trades using time series
He's got a great easy to use spreadsheet on his website for it. Cool book too FWIW. Synchronicity is the idea that complex self organizing systems (like possibly the markets) will exhibit correlations, clustering, and coherent connections. His theory is these connections are bound by a pervasive force that can be mapped using fibonacci and other mathematical ratios. It sounds like a lot of bullocks when I explain it, but the book is pretty convincing and so is the spreadsheet.
Anyway, sometimes after a few too many pints of Guinness, I start to wonder what the implications are for having serial and synchronous connections bound by artificial parameters. On the other hand, sometimes I probably drink too much.
from your 'THE DEMISE OF KHRYSOS' article
"BUT, if we're currently in a bear market,".
I believe we are now
in a bear market.
A few of many reasons, below.
17 Yr Cycl in Bear Mode 1
Thank you for the links...I'll have to take some time to digest them.ReplyDelete
I started going off on tangents when responding & eventually got to this...don't understand it yet, but it looks like it could be a formal way of filling in the gaps of my scattered Appendix B.
In December, I hadn't yet finished reading Constance Brown's "Fibonacci Analysis," but the final chapter seems to have some relevant quotations.
"Harmonic proportion is the mathematical ratio of musical intervals." (146)
"Harmonic intervals form between Fibonacci confluence zones, but not all Fibonacci confluence zones are connected by harmonic intervals or related to one another sequentially. We have only touched upon the study of harmonics within our markets and conceptually opened the door to a fascinating field." (158)
I wonder if these "unrelated" Fibonacci confluence zones might not be related by harmonic (silver ratio based) intervals, but some other silver-mean-related interval instead.
> Fibonacci natural Pell interpretation
I've been thinking about this since you mentioned it at Binve's site. I agree with you to the extent that more examples of Fibonacci relationships have been found in the natural world to date, but I'm not sure I'm ready to render this as a final verdict.
As Brown points out, there is a harmonic basis to musical intervals. I think there are applications in optics as well. The sine RMS you pointed out is another great example, but maybe that gets us into a semantic/metaphysical debate over how we define "natural" versus "interpreted."
Thanks for all your ideas--please do keep 'em coming as you see fit. In the event it'd be easier than typing into a disqus box, the silver ratio paper has an email address in it.
I'm not sure there is such a thing as too many pints of Guiness--my uncertainty is not for a lack of experimental trials to try to find out though!
Zim maybe I'm just talking out of my ass and splitting philosophical hairs. I guess the point is these relationships exist and that's all there is to it. Again great interesting work. Hope to see more of it.ReplyDelete
I've heard of the Constance Brown book. Just downloaded it so I need to dig into it. I like to think I'm a music lover (although my wife says I can't sing a lick). However, I'm a bit slow when it comes to music theory, so I need extra time to wrap my brain around the concepts of intervals.
Is this what you mean by silver related intervals?
The ratio between these intervals is square root of 2.
The image is from the end of chapter 11 in E - The Story of a Number
from your 'THE DEMISE OF KHRYSOS' article
"BUT, if we're currently in a bear market,".
It appears to me,
we are now in a bear market.
A few of many reasons, below.
17 Yr Cycl in Bear Mode 1
17 Yr Cycl in Bear Mode 2
Chnl Bottom from 1982 pierced. 1
Chnl Bottom from 1982 pierced. 2
Possible cycls Down into 2012 1
Possible cycls Down into 2012 2
Quarterly %D %K chrt indicates bear. 1
Quarterly IWM %D %K crosses. 2
Analogs of some mega bear mkts.
All pretty good reasons. The one that makes to most sense to me is the fact that according to others who are in the know, the world has reached the point where the world is literally saturated with debt. Nobody can afford any more debt. The only bonds that are being sold these days are to replace those that are expiring. They're just rolling the debt over, but there's no new money being created out of new debt. I doesn't matter if new debt is being lent out at .0005%, it's still being issued simply to roll existing debt over. No new money creation is happening. Not to mention that rates are surging in Europe at a time when they couldn't even afford to pay their debts when rates were lower. As far as I'm concerned, the writing is on the wall. And yet, the weekly charts right now look flat out bullish. It's frustrating.ReplyDelete
By the way, please tell me what happened when you submitted your comment. It doesn't have to pass through a moderator or anything like that so it should have just popped up been published immediately. Is that what happened? I don't think so because I found it in the spam bin and of course I didn't put it there. The same thing happened when TomMillard posted an innocent comment with one link. It's Disqus' own spam filter that's doing this. If I'm here, and if I catch in a timely manner, all comments should pop up immediately. It's a piss off to be honest.
So please tell me... what happened on your end when you hit the "post comment" button?
I posted the same comment yesterday evening.ReplyDelete
It went right up.
Then I edited it and got a message
it needed to be approved.
I put it up again today
and it seemed to go right up.
But when I refreshed the page
it was gone.
Just now I refreshed again
and it was there ?
Perhaps you released it from spam?
RePost [My comment was upReplyDelete
but when I refreshed it disappeared]:
I posted the same comment yesterday evening.
It went right up.
I edited it and got a message
it needed to be approved.
it up again today
and it seemed to go right up.
But when I
refreshed the page
it was gone.
Just now I refreshed again
it was there ?
Perhaps you released it from spam?
The last comment was wrong!ReplyDelete
It hadnt disappeared.
I thought it had
cause it was above my bear market comment
and I no longer saw it there.
What actually happened
is the bear market comment
appeared again, for the second time
and now two seem to exist!
Each with a new comment about posting
[ Now when I click post
to post this comment
I first get a message "wait"
then it does not post ? ]
I've read all your responses below this one.ReplyDelete
Yes of course I released it from the spam bin immediately upon finding
it there. So that's what's been going on! Thanks a million for the
On the other site, this would be the same reason. We have
been suspecting that it was trolls doing it, and back in the day when
Danno allowed "flagging" that was possibly the case. But now that he's
disabled it, we know for sure that it's Disqus itself. If Danno were
able to check his spam bin more often the issues on his site could be
solved much quicker. I wouldn't have had to wait darned near a full weekend
as has happened in the past. In defense of Danno, he works just like I do
so he's not always there to take care of it. So please don't be
offended when it happens, just know 'why' it happens. Of course, I
would correct it immediately when I see this problem in the future and
I'll be checking the spam bin very often just in case. So I don't think it's going to end up being a very big deal here since I should be able to correct these events pretty quickly. Thanks for your patience and for helping me zero in on what the problem is.
I'll see if I can delete your double posts now, just for the learning experience if nothing else.
Danno's count now matches your count! Nice counting!
Need the rest of iv, then v, and then whammo, Minor 3 has arrived.
We better get ready to party.
DarkestKnight's AUDUSD latest count is also in need of the rest of iv, and a final v push up ... before Minor 3 begins.
The dollar needs one more push down before 3 of 3 can begin.
Everything is getting lined up.
P.S. It sure was nice over there to have a day without half of the posts being insults.ReplyDelete
Glad you helped get Mr. MW banned. Whew ... makes me realize how destructive and negative it is, and what a nice place you have over here. Thanks again!
Thanks Greg for noticing the count thing. But if I'm not mistaken, Danno's count is one degree smaller than the one I think you're referring to. Did you mean this one from the But What If? piece?ReplyDelete
If so, I'm still focusing on the level of 1267.06. If it doesn't get taken out then I fear we may have to endure another leg higher. And if that happens, then all of a sudden we're looking at a pretty darned clear 5 wave impulse off the October lows. Oh the agony.
Have to share this one, AR. It's just to good to be left unseen, especially by you! LOL!ReplyDelete
Credit goes to OwnTheHouse for posting this one over at Daneric's.JW
Haha. Thanks for thinking of me Jay Dub. Did he say where it can be purchased? I care not about the cost.ReplyDelete