Friday, May 31, 2013

Hindenburg Omen Goes Off Again

The Hindenburg Omen has issued a signal for the second time in the past 6 weeks, having issued a signal on April 15th.  Prior to that the last signal it issued was in August of 2010.  According to the rules set forth by the HO's creator, Jim Meikka, the market would need to generate a second and 'confirming' signal within the next 36 days.  Nonetheless, we had better be aware that the HO is telling us that the markets are currently on very shaky ground.

In the April 15th event, the markets had put in a short term peak just two days earlier with the S&P registering a high of 1597.  As we can all see in retrospect, the HO had actually gone off in what turned out to just be the middle of a massive 4-day decline which sent the $SPX all the way down to 1536, a decline of 3.76%.  Hardly the disaster legends are made of.

[RANT ALERT]:  But then again, I don't think that any time in the history of the entire solar system has there been such concerted effort by the demented central bankers of the world to prop up the equities markets as a side effect of trying to create inflation in the face of the greatest global deflationary pressures that ever existed.  Deflationary pressures of the bankers' own creation... deflationary pressures that are the natural ultimate outcome of decades of expansionary policies that no longer work.  The bankers have literally put the entire world into debt (to the bankers, and that's the most dangerous aspect) to such an extent that by now the world is simply saturated in debt, debt that can barely be repaid with interest rates at the lowest levels of all time.  Rates that the bankers are determined to hold down near zero no matter what it takes, thinking they can be successful at holding rates down by destroying currencies, which by natural logic would normally create inflation which in turn destroys the bond markets.  A classic case of the snake eating its own tail.  The solution to this dilemma appears to be that the bankers themselves are now buying up all the new bond issuance since there is nobody left who is willing to accept them at such low rates in the face of such efforts to destroy those same bonds.  Again, the snake eating its own tail.

I'm not sure what 'you' think of the bankers' policies but to my way of thinking there can be only one of two distinctly different outcomes, one being far worse than the other.  Either the bankers lose control and the entire global banking system collapses into a smouldering heap (believe it or not that's the good outcome), OR the bankers end up being successful, owning the vast majority of all sovereign debt in existence, owning the majority of the global stock markets, owning the majority of all global real estate debt and owning all of the student loan debt.  In the latter horrifically frightening case... they essentially own all of mankind.  The sickest aspect of it all is that the day would arrive when the rate of interest no longer matters, because once the entire world is begging for mercy, the bankers could forgive all debt in return for deed to basically everything including mankind itself.  No more debt... and the bankers own the entire planet and all its inhabitants.  By the way, that has been the goal of the dark overlords for centuries.  And in case you haven't spotted it by now, that's the bad outcome.

But in the name of hope let's briefly discuss what's going on with some of the countries that have been in the news a lot over the past couple of years.  Some of them reached their end game a couple of years ago, Greece, Ireland, Iceland to name a few.  Of those three countries, Greece and Ireland solved their economic problems caused by too much debt by bending over and allowing the ECB to ram billions more worth of loans up their tiny arses.  Not exactly the best way to get out of debt... by borrowing more.  A six year old child understands that.  The Icelanders on the other hand... apparently nobody can goose a Viking.  And the Icelanders did what 'real' men do... they kicked the invading rapists square in the beanbag like every other European country should do, and started to rebuild their village from the ground up.  Today Iceland is already back on their financial feet and have one of the best performing economies in all of Europe.

On a much, much bigger scale, according to Kyle Bass Japan has also reached the end of the road.  In this great 20 minute interview with Bloomberg, Mr. Bass spells out the Japanese situation with the typical humility and honesty he is well known for.  As per his forecast, we can already see the Japanese bond market starting to unravel, and as difficult as it is to accept... that's the good outcome. [END OF RANT ALERT]

Records of what happened in the markets following past Hindenburg Omen signals show that a decline of at least 2%-5% will occur 92% of the time, with more severe pullbacks being less likely.  For example, of all the HO signals since it first came into being, a larger decline of 8%-10% was recorded more often than not... 54% of the time.  So as it turned out, the recent signal of April 15th was followed by one of the smaller market declines, not surprising given the current mindset of the ECB, FED and BoJ.  But let's not let our guard down because regardless of the fact that bankers have pretty much ruined every market on the planet, the NYSE is now at a degree of polarization that no matter how we slice it, is very revealing.  The markets are on very thin ice.

So we simply remain mindful of what the odds are.  The stats below are reprinted from the April 15th article which accompanied the HO signal at that time:

Major Crash - 27% probability
Selling panic of at least 10-15% - 39% probability
Sharp decline of at least 8-10% - 54% probability
Meaningful decline of at least 5-8% - 77% probability
Mild decline of at least 2-5% - 92% probability
The HO signal is an outright miss - 7.7% probability (one out of 13 times)

Wishing all of you the very best...


71 comments:

  1. Good work, sir.

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  2. good to see you on the net(uruquay now)
    All the best

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  3. How many times has this thing failed over the past 4 years?
    FED monitization = analytic indicators fail

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  4. THAT is the problem.


    I sure love the idea of a sell off as much as any of the doomer bears out there, but yet.. almost every day, the Fed is still throwing huge amounts at the US capital market.



    Nothing has really changed, and its almost sad that some are getting overly hysterical after a 1.3% index drop, with the VIX 'spiking into the low 16s'.

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  5. Watching clown network'1 (CNBC), it would seem a number are taking notice AR of YOUR post!


    Naturally, Queen witch Bartiromo says 'never in my 20 years.. have I heard of this hindenberg omen'.


    Says it all really about those clown maniacs.

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  6. None. Obviously you haven't read a single article I've ever written on it or else you'd know that the problem is that the uneducated are listening to false reports that the HO has issued a signal when it has not.

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  7. I'm sure they're not paying any attention to me. Almost assuredly they're taking their cue from ZeroHedge who in turn took their cue this morning from Arthur Hill. And why not... he's a great analyst, although 6-8 months ago I had to correct him on his issuance of a false report based on the fact that he was misinterpreting the 50 day MA rule. But he has it correct now and issued this report this morning.

    http://blogs.stockcharts.com/dont_ignore_this_chart/2013/04/hindenburg-omen-triggers-as-new-lows-surge-.html?st=hindenburg+omen

    He is now the only other 'reporter' I know who has the rules 100% correct. I'm proud to have educated him on that one mistake he was making. In no way do I mean to demean him either because he truly is a great analyst. It was just a slight oversight on his part... which has been corrected.

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  8. Ohh, I'm pretty sure some of the 'twitter' maniacs out there were referencing you to the clown TV ;)
    --

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  9. and to you buddy, see?? told you we were very close!!! big difference with April? all my momentum sector models are turning bearish, including financials...have a great week-end

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  10. i'm leaning towards a miss....why, the FED never hits anything.

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  11. Thanks again AR, appreciate you keeping us informed. Agree with your sentiments :-)

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  12. Hola mi amigo. How did you enjoy Chile? I've been doing a bit of research on that country and it truly sounds like a lovely and safe place to live, with a government that is not nearly as "against its people" as what we're starting to see nearly everywhere else. I also understand that Equador is similar, a lovely place to live. Have you ever been to Equador?

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  13. Thanks Tom. Glad you appreciate them. Actually I hope you find my pieces a bit entertaining too, every once in a while. I don't mind writing with a bit of passion now and again. You should see the stuff I don't publish :-)

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  14. You're welcome pardner. Still love ya, but I just can't seem to bring myself to post over at Pretzel's anymore. Apparently my comments are occasionally a bit to 'truthful' or 'political' for one or two of the folks over there. So rather than make waves I just keep to myself these days pretty much and do my own thing. Good to see ya.

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  15. We'll see what happens I guess. The banking assholes have me so infuriated that I can hardly see straight. They're going to keep on trying to push this market higher because their lives depend on it... technical analysis be damned. I've never seen a market that keeps on rising like this in the face of such complete nonsense that's interpreted as "good economic news". It's horrid news yet they spin it as if it's good. And the sheep just keep drinking that freakin' Koolaide.


    Great weekend to you as well.

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  16. That's a shame. I appreciate your views. Anyway, I'll keep visiting you over here as you provide thoughtful analysis and no vitriol. Anyway, take care big guy and stay in touch :-)

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  18. BUT the Fed hinted they would be likely tapering their QE 80B a month ... in a few months.
    That was a week ago. And we had the beginning sell-off then, and this is the follow-thru.


    The QE money in support of the market is the ONLY thing that caused the severe proppage of this market the past 4 years. And if they take it away? Clearly we would go down rapidly.



    It's surprising to me how blaze everyone is about that fact. Sheeple are so complacent they think:
    "The market can only go up bc of QE."
    But QE will probably end in a few months.
    "Oh, they would never do that, then the market would go down and the Fed wants the market to go up."
    Maybe the Fed cares more about the bond market.
    "But the market only goes up."
    Right-o.

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  19. Thanks AR, excellent post.
    I enjoyed your rant, and I am equally flabbergasted. So much so that I have completely stopped bothering to warn people -- since so few listen. Nobody listened to Noah either. But I like the way you've described the futile efforts of the bankers together with bonds and equities. Well done.


    Japan's efforts are beyond stupid. To crush their currency and prop up the stock market (which is now down 15% in 2 weeks), and to act SURPRISED that bond yields have soared from 0.40% to 1.0% for 10 year JGB's is beyond idiocy. And as Kyle Bass says, their bond yields will bankrupt Japan very quickly. That little 0.6% increase x 25 (their leverage of debt:taxreceipts) is an increase of 15% of future revenue to service their massive debt heap. Once they get to 4% interest rates they will be paying 100% of tax revenues. Bankruptcy defined. Their thinking is childish.



    Japan: "We don't want deflation, so if we get 1-2% inflation we won't have deflation anymore."

    Critic: "But what about all those debts that are being destroyed? That's deflation, and you haven't changed that a lick. And interest rates rising is making debt defaults a certainty."

    Japan: "Oh shut up you."



    The last one I tried to warn just added to the stock market last week. At the top I suspect.

    Sheeple are so convinced they are right there's no convincing them of the risks. Complacency defined.

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  20. Hiya greg. Update on aud/usd. Thinking of going long finally for a bounce. Been short since 1.05ish you know. Good ride. Also taking short side on the yen pairs. What are you upto?

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  22. Market has NEVER fallen before a QE has ended.


    I been saying that for months now, and yet, almost every respondent has had the audacity to either ..1. just ignore it. 2. start whining that the Fed QE doesn't actually 'work anyway'.
    --


    QE continues. Market ain't going down, until it STOPS.
    --
    You keep shorting next week, good luck with that.


    Ohh thats right, you'll then claim your weren't actually short, or that you don't disclore your trades.


    Fence sitter, and utterly tiresome.

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  24. There's either an echo in here, or compliments and appreciation for the update are coming from my virtual mouth hole too...thx AR!


    #endcoercion
    #debtorsleverage

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  26. I'm watching this date. And wouldn't it be a surprize if we just go down down down into Oct/ Nov 2013 as the chart indicates. The market also has to make them lose money so a plunge appears indicated. In 1987 you couldn't get out until the close when invested in a mutual fund. Now it's time to show what it means to be invested in a "ETF", that they can sell. http://forbestadvice.com/Money/Gurus/DonaldBradley/BradleyTurnDates2013.html Nitram

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  27. Important post AR. Merci for your work.

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  28. good work AR. been waiting so long for the world to return to reality I almost forgot what I was waiting for.

    hope was never an economic policy that would work in the long run. Especially when said hope was artificially manufactured in the first place.

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  29. I suppose the market has at least done its job of turning excess bearishness into excess bullishness. how exactly I can't even begin to grasp. we are so fucked as a fiat world of helicopter money

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  30. You're welcome SJ and thanks for referencing it on your own blog. Even though the banking cartel are the only people who are truly behind these markets and don't want to let them drop, I think the HO is still very accurate in highlighting the true phoniness behind it all. Whether that's going to make any difference to the insane who are running the show or not... I honestly don't know what to think. There's just no good outcome that I can think of under any scenario.

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  31. Enjoyed the rant AR and good to hear someone that detests the bankstering as much as me.. The outcomes you mention from these manipulations ultimately means for me your first outcome has to come about. This is because your second alternative is simply unacceptable from a social mood perspective so it then begins to unravel in a series of explosive events. Either that or I have too much Viking blood that has gone absent from the general population. But history reveals dominance and oppression like what these bankers desire leads eventually to revolt and time is the only real unknown for bringing that about. It is hard for me to accept that treasury interest rates rising won't bring the banksters plans undone. I simply hope their control over the markets is limited to this reality to prevent a really major meltdown in social mood and the violence associated with it.

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  32. I don't even care any longer what the stock market does. I trade currencies.
    Switched over 2 years ago. Currencies have been more predictable. Doing nice wave counts. Unlike equity slop.

    My point was that the Fed has begun to change expectations.
    And the market is starting to react to those changed expectations.
    By selling bonds.
    And maybe now by selling stocks.
    That was my only point. That some seem overly complacent.
    People I work with for example.

    I disagreed with your conclusions, but did it in a respectful manner I thought.
    Surely the market can go down when it anticipates QE ends.

    Much as Japan's bond market is going down in anticipation of rising rates.
    I was thinking of people at work who are blinded by the QE back stop when I said sheeple.


    Anyway, please spare me the "I'll claim I wasn't short" comments. As I said, I don't bother with equities anymore, and currencies have been plenty profitable.

    Soon you'll start with the "paper trader" comments of He Who Shall Not Be Named, I suppose.

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  33. Hey Newbfxtrader, good to hear from you, and congratulations on that audusd short! Way to ride a wave and nice patience on your part. Thought I'd be with you on that one, but some snafu's happened. Some sell orders I had at 1.02 got lost when I switched my account. Then didn't have a good entry point. Argh. Had been stalking that audusd for 1.5 years too. What's your count on audusd? I agree it looks ready for a bounce, just not sure where to.



    I'm getting ready to go long usdjpy again soon, my target is 1.08. The last wave of this minor 3. Chart below is the one I'm going with.


    Best of luck to you, and again, congrats!!!

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  34. Here's a tweet link to a blurb saying something similar to that. Some may want to get out first.

    Copied and pasted.


    "Bit of chat around the market this weekend that the dangers of the crowded QE trades are starting to surface.



    1) Resource currencies have broken rapidly lower
    2) Commodity prices continue relatively weak
    3) While there is no solid indication yet that the Fed (and other
    central banks) liquidity cascade is coming to an end, market volatility
    has caused participants to reconsider how crowded trades are, and how
    small the door might be at exit time"

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  35. Thanks inursha, glad you can appreciate the simple message the HO brings to us. Man, I haven't seen you in a long time. Where've you been hanging out? Not at Mudville I hope. In any case, it's nice to see you again.

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  36. Hi Sukimoto. Man, you have no idea how much I have enjoyed your posts over at the sick house. I've had hopes ever since I first noticed you that you would discover this place and feel welcome to post comments here. You certainly are welcome here and I know for a fact that the type of people who drop in here from time to time are also appreciative of your views. This really is a quiet spot and I don't go to any effort at all to go out and try to recruit people to come here and make this "the popular spot". I'm just not interested in the limelight nor in running a blog for the purposes of it being "the place to be". It is just a quiet blog where good sharp people are more than welcome and where trolls are shot on sight. I haven't had to ban many people and I'm pretty darned lenient, but I just can't put up with personal attacks which offer absolutely nothing of value. So you'll at least be comfortable here at all times and all the folks here can certainly have good conversation and a ton of laughs if we want to. The door is always open and the beer is always free. So pull up a chair and help yourself. Nice of you to drop in:

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  37. What we are about to witness unfolding in Japan over the next year is what is going to happen to Europe as well I think, and then the USA. For years now I've been envisioning the unraveling as happening sequentially. The US dollar is going to re-emerge as the power currency for a few years I'm certain. The Yen tanks then a year or two later (maybe less) the Euro tanks. The Japanese bond market collapses, then Europe's then the USA treasury market. I think gold holds up well in the deflationary scenario (in US terms) because of the fear factor and because although gold might weaken in terms of US dollars as the dollar surges, it will become very attractive for those whose currencies are collapsing. So I think the US dollar and gold hold up well although I admit that I also thought the Yen would hold up well since Japan is about to undergo a massive deflationary collapse. So yeah, I think I'll stick to that theory... the Yen should reverse sometime soon and start to head higher again because Abe's plan to cause inflation at the cost of trying to destroy the Yen is soon going to be 'countered' by the true Japanese deflation monster.


    I don't pretend for a second to have it all figured out. If I was that sharp I'd be richer than that asshole Dimon. But those scenarios I mention seem logical enough... I think.

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  38. What we are about to witness unfolding in Japan over the next year is what is going to happen to Europe as well I think, and then the USA. For years now I've been envisioning the unraveling as happening sequentially. The US dollar is going to re-emerge as the power currency for a few years I'm certain. The Yen tanks then a year or two later (maybe less) the Euro tanks. The Japanese bond market collapses, then Europe's then the USA treasury market. I think gold holds up well in the deflationary scenario (in US terms) because of the fear factor and because although gold might weaken in terms of US dollars as the dollar surges, it will become very attractive for those whose currencies are collapsing. So I think the US dollar and gold hold up well although I admit that I also thought the Yen would hold up well since Japan is about to undergo a massive deflationary collapse. So yeah, I think I'll stick to that theory... the Yen should reverse sometime soon and start to head higher again because Abe's plan to cause inflation at the cost of trying to destroy the Yen is soon going to be 'countered' by the true Japanese deflation monster.

    I don't pretend for a second to have it all figured out. If I was that sharp I'd be richer than that asshole Dimon. But those scenarios I mention seem logical enough... I think.


    Here, have a brew:

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  39. Well that's a nice Canadian welcome that I haven't heard for a while. I have ventured over from time to time and one stage tried to post but didn't figure it out properly so just left it alone. Today was a breeze so don't know what happened before. Glad you have enjoyed my very firm view on countering the abuse of Wagner over at the sick house as you call it. If anybody ever deserved the outback dunny as a healing booth it is that Dropkick. A quiet spot is fine by me. I read the posts and will comment every now and then.
    Coming over at a time that is close for the markets to really start rolling over. I only trade ASX options and therefore generally watch these markets with Shanghai, Nikkei, US, FTSE, DAX, Gold, Copper, Oil and some Forex. But the whole gamut when something interesting comes up. I think Asia will be interesting the next couple of days. ASX sold off hard and earlier than US markets and looks like the correction or first stage of the correction is complete. If it continues to go down from here as indicated in the chart then it is a bigger degree correction or possibly this count is wrong and it is going to impulse down. Should go down on Monday after Friday's US close but Tuesday will be very interesting for me and I will be watching Shanghai and US markets closely on Monday. The decision for me will get out of shorts on Monday or not.
    For your amusement I will leave you with the best place in the world for that Dropkick to contemplate his 'character defects':-)

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  40. Haha. Yup, that dude is beyond help. He reminds me of the bankers, everything he touches turns to shit. But if nothing else that blog was a great experiment to see what happens to a once-great site when the owner fails to intervene on behalf of the valuable contributors and chooses to let the unruly arseholes rule the roost. That is precisely the same thing as what we're seeing in the world of economics. In this case, Danno would represent the SEC who regularly fails to do their job. I don't think that's exactly what he had in mind if he's using his site as an experiment in social mood but I have no doubt that until the day the SEC (and Danno) starts to perform its job properly and starts sending the trolls (the criminal bankers and the criminal Wagners) to prison, the chaos, anger and pain will just continue. Bart Chilton... are you listening?

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  41. I am south-west of Sydney in the mountains these days. Close enough for CBD access in 1.25 hours but laid back and peaceful enough to enjoy a far less hectic lifestyle avoiding the traffic, rush and hassle.

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  42. The main point is that risk reward is terrible for longs here.
    I think people I work with adding money to market here are idiotic.

    Never said anything about shorting, but that might be a good idea after 1-2 off the top of some degree.

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  43. Hey, good to see you here!
    I always read and respected your valuable observations when I did go back there, but don't do that much these days. Time is better spent looking at FX charts, and staying positive, eh?
    Cheers, mate!

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  44. Hi Greg, Yep you are one of the few I can relate to well on that blog and you stick to your guns with what you know unlike the vast majority that have opinions that float with the tide. You have switched to FX though and I only use it as indicators for the moment. Fully understand why you made the change though with a market operating on false pretense and absolutely outrageous rorting to suit Benny and the boys. Volumes in FX much more difficult to rort on a perpetual basis IMO so the waves somewhat clearer. May well venture into FX at a later date but those long tails and change in the elliott rules are what I want to come to terms with.. Cheers, and all the best!

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  46. Well it looks like just about everyone is reporting on the Hindenburg these days.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/100781186
    http://www.businessinsider.com/the-hindenburg-omen-has-appeared-2013-5
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-31/stocks-slide-hindenburg-omen-sighting
    http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartwatchers/2013/06/hindenburg-omen-triggered-after-fridays-big-market-reversal.html
    http://disciplinedinvesting.blogspot.com.es/2013/06/the-hindenburg-omen-triggered-friday.html
    http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/05/31/the-hindenburg-omen-strikes-stocks-fall
    http://capitalogix.typepad.com/public/2013/06/some-thoughts-on-the-hindenburg-omen-pattern-predicting-market-instability.html
    http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2013/05/the-hindenburg-omen-meets-bond-bubble.html
    This one from McHugh is well worth the time. http://www.safehaven.com/article/30019/we-got-an-official-confirmed-hindenburg-omen-on-may-31st-2013

    Okay, that was worth a chuckle I hope, and it's also good to know when "everyone's looking at the same thing" (I haven't even bothered to see who's using the correct rules and who hasn't), but the REAL REASON for this comment is to ASK: is there a good easy way to eliminate the EFTs from the equation? The following excerpt from what Ian Woodward wrote on his blog this last Saturday got me asking myself that question:

    "Unfortunately, times have changed as the years have passed and the biggest change which throws the HO into a tizzy of not being as dependable is the advent of the ETFs since that great analyst Jim Miekka devised the criteria to ensure it was a very infrequent and reliable occasion. The database used these days is so different, and certainly there have been changes suggested that hopefully keep things in balance, but its reliability is suspect. So much so, that I offer you an excerpt that Wikepedia has included to put this in perspective:"

    http://www.highgrowthstock.com/IanBlog/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Wibbly-Wiki.png

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  47. just been watching and maintaining my own opinion on the mess. Nobody listens or cares what I think, so I just keep it to myself.

    The rational mind will always win in the end, it will just be stretched to the point of breaking first. After I flipped my own psychology on the dot com bubble just as it was nearing its end, I have been thoroughly interested in this phenomenon. Some may call it perma bear, or perma doomster. I just like to think I am trying to be rational. But, hey, nobody ever believed anybody who truly knew what they were doing until long after the reality of it had already set in.

    It's hard to watch the media and even Big Ben tout that stocks are NOT overvalued on historic measures when you have stocks like TSLA, NFLX, LNKD and others that trade like hot potatoes. It's not a free market we are watching, it's a multi-generational financial scheme to extract money from the normal folks. And I dont need any ratification of this theory, I witness it with thine own eyes.

    BTW, you'd appreciate this. Maybe you can post it if we get a confirmation (photo attached). I took this at my son's baseball game last night. Tell me that doesn't look exactly like the fucking Hindenburg!

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  48. Yup, I could see it as being something like the Hindy. But my imagination can be a bit on the wild side Inursha. Quite often I see beautiful women with great big... personalities. Like this one:

    ReplyDelete
  49. Thanks for the links HR. McHugh is the one guy who has the best data on past HO events, but the man is a bit of an enigma to me. Just for the record, I like the guy. He was good enough to have granted me permission a few years ago, to re-publish some of his findings regarding the 26 up-Mondays in a row or whatever it was. He's a good guy.


    BUT, up until recently he still didn't have the Ho's rules right. He wasn't even aware of the changes that Jim Meikka had made to adjust for the increased number of ETFs and bond funds. As a result he had declared that the HO went off when it in fact didn't. Now some people are declaring "it's not enough, Meikka needs to make more changes". And they might be right about that. But it's Meikka's indicator and until 'he' changes it, we have to just go with his rules. The detractors can change it if they like (perhaps resulting in a much needed improvement) and then rename it if they like.


    But back to McHugh for a second. In his article he states that the HO signal of last Wednesday was the second and confirming signal, the signal that confirms the April 15th signal. Further down in his article he correctly states that the rules dictate that the second signal must occur within 36 days of the first. But last Wednesday's signal was not within the specified time limit. So this is a fresh signal in my opinion, not a second and confirming one.


    To be quite honest, personally I think that any single signal is plenty to at least put us on edge and get us ready to react real quick. Even if the HO fails to go off and instead misses triggering by a small margin, for me personally that has also been more than enough to alert me to the fact that the market is dangerously polarized. To be honest, I'm not the slightest bit interested in quibbling about these minor details. When the number of new highs and new lows is nearly the same, at a time when the market is supposedly still in a bull phase as measured by its 50 day MA... that's all I need to know in order to expect that a collapse "could" come at any time. But out of respect for my few remaining followers over at Seeking Alpha where I have been reporting "to them" on the HO for four years now, I just continue to report as best as I can. In truth, I can barely wait to dump the entire topic and move on, lol. Sadly, it'll take a seriously impressive market pullback in order for that to happen.

    ReplyDelete
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  51. “But it's Meikka's indicator and until and unless 'he' changes it again, we have to just go with 'his' rules for 'his' indicator. The detractors can change it if they like (perhaps resulting in a much needed improvement) and then rename it if they like. ”

    I was thinking about an 'optional addition', something similar to Pring's Parameters on the MACD. Meikka's indicator would still be his, but someone else might add a confirmational aspect to it, like excluding the ETFs from the sample for example. Possible outcomes would be that both data sources could fire signals together, or only one of the two, and when the ETF excluded data fires, maybe we'd even give more importance to that than the opposite. In any event, the original indicator would remain unchanged.

    You've done a lot with this subject already, and I thought you just the man. :-)


    * Nice Ron Walker article on Pring's Parameters. Pring’s MACD Parameters Produce Profits

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  53. Ha! Another Aussie, welcome to the club :-)

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  54. Hi Mars, Only seen you a few times in the nuthouse I think. Haven't really had a chat but thete are very few down under that I have found posting on these blogs. Good to catch up sometime. Cheers!

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  55. Just noticed this came out under Joy Division which is my identity for posting about the markets. Sukimoto was born to try and help counter/clean up the mess at Daneric's caused by that Dropkick Wagner. I guess I'll continue to post here under Sukimoto because that is how AR got to know me.

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  56. Cannot help but like DK but there is one very important factor about him that holds very strong. He is ENGLISH and seems to be an avid cricketer. So this throws a whole different element into the relationship. I like the English but when it comes to cricket they are the old, arch enemy and there is a very long, historic, grueling and very close battle fought out on the cricket pitch between the Aussies and English (very polite). This is a very distinguishing factor in any OZ/English male relationship. Good thing is there are three test cricket series between the OZ/English being held over the next three years. Bad news is I reckon the Australian team is going to get thrashed in the first test no doubt to the delight of DK. But my odds over the three years will be that England wins the first series. Australia wins the second series at home next year. And there will be one huge battle going on over in England in the summer of 2015.

    Just thought I would put things into perspective!

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  57. 1 out of 30 left - that's change alright! And just a little bit of digression. ;-)

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  58. I was aware that Aussies and English love their cricket but I wasn't aware that the rivalry between the two is as fierce as it is. I recently watched a very interesting mixed martial arts series on TV that featured a team of fighters from England and one from Australia. It was called "The Smashes". It took me a while to find out that it was a play on words based on "The Ashes". I didn't know what "The Ashes" was either... but I found out.


    I keep forgetting that DK is English and always think of him as an Aussie. But he's a good guy so I don't care which he is. By the way, you don't see Mars very much because he's a regular at Pretzel's, which is a great spot. I used to hang out there too but my views are too political for some over there. I got berated pretty good for stating that Hitler's playbook was being played out all over again to a tee. A couple of the people didn't want to hear 'the truth' and made a bit of a stink about the fact that I speak that language. So I basically don't post comments nor any of my TA views anywhere these days, not even here.


    Also, I 'did not' realize that Joy Division and Sukimoto are alter egos. Learn something new every day I guess, lol.

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  59. Your two identities are under two different email addresses of course. If you like I can delete any of your comments under either of those names if you want.

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  60. Yeah, you wouldn't have seen me post at the Nuthouse. I avoid it like the plague. I post my analysis and trades on Pretzel Logic's forum. I occasionally post some stuff here but not regularly. I like AR's site. Insightful and good analysis from folks. Cheers, Mars

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  61. Yeah, we have some skills but as Sukimoto pointed out DK is an honorary Aussie, although he still supports the English in cricket... I haven't seen much of Sukimoto's work so we'll have to get in touch. Small world.

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  62. The rivalry goes back well over a century and at one stage called the bodyline series was like a war but played out in sport. Australia hold more ashes series wins than the English and this is a strong sense of national pride that the masters who shipped their riff raff to the other side of the globe can get whipped by them in their own game. Nothing in sport beats the sight of an English batsman walking off the field, head down, bat dragging along the ground, and mumbling curses to himself after being bowled for a golden duck (which means he scored no runs). Looking forward to a sight or two like this in the forthcoming series and will definitely let DK know about it when it happens:-)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Y1hI2Tt8F8

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  63. They are under different E mails. No needs to delete anything. I guess those that know me know I have the dual entity anyway.

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  65. yeah, our minds can cause us to see what we want to see most times.


    ah, the great wonders of the human condition. It's nice to know compatible souls exist in this world, no matter how different our paths.

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  66. It's all good then. I had seen Sukimoto tear the ass off of Wagner on numerous occasions with total domination over that ass-clown, as well as offering some pretty darned good technical stuff. I also noticed Joy Division offering some real good technical work, as well as being a real nice individual who gets along very well with other people I like. But I must admit, I did not put 2 and 2 together. My bad.

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