Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Reviewing 11 Global Markets Since 2009

I find it helpful every once in a while to review how the major global markets have performed over any particular time span relative to each other.  In the charts below we take a look at 11 large markets going back to the March 2009 lows, using the S&P 500 as the benchmark.  The Russell 2000 is included for two reasons.  The first simply being the humorous side of that particular market since it represents the "riskier" assets and is therefore literally a plaything for those who have the ability to goose or influence markets at will.  All cynicism aside, the performance of the Russell over the past 4 years is actually very typical of a market in which the appetite for risk is relatively high.  And of course in a realm where the central banks of the world are more than happy to accommodate their minion manipulators with free liquidity, it is perfectly understandable that the small caps would have risen more than any other since the collapse of Lehman.  It's aggravating as hell to be sure but in truth it is nothing unusual.  I have to keep reminding myself of that fact.

The second reason the R2K is included is for that very same dynamic... sans the cynicism.  Because from a strictly analytical and logical standpoint there's no secret that the Russell leads in both directions since it reflects the appetite for risk.  And of course that's just standard procedure.  So it behooves us to keep tabs on the Russell since there is absolutely no doubt that if and when the markets ever begin to suffer the consequences of a withdrawal of liquidity, that particular index will lead to the downside.   In a bear cycle The Russell should drop first and it 'will' drop the hardest (of the North American markets).  That particular topic...the analysis of the relationship between the larger caps and the small caps... is an important enough metric on its own merit that it deserves to be the focus of a study all by itself.  Although that won't happen in this post, I have been meaning to really dive into that one and hope to get to it very soon.  Just haven't gotten around to it as of yet.

That aside, we move forward with what I find to be a very interesting look at what has occurred over the past four years with 2 US markets and 9 European bourses.  Due to limitations imposed by StockCharts we can only investigate 6 different indices on any single chart.  But we get around that issue simply enough by presenting two charts.  On both of them I have included the S&P 500 as the benchmark which most of us know like the back of our hands.  As well, we'll present the Austrian market (in white) on both charts just for convenient reference since it happens to fall in the middle of the pack.  So we begin... first with the S&P 500 and the other 5 markets within the USA and Europe that have risen the most since March, 2009:

The actual percentages of change can be seen in the upper left hand corner.  Right click the chart to open in a larger version (new tab)

What is perhaps most interesting is that the Paris market ($CAC) is not even in the top three for EuropeWe don't even see it in the chart above.  That is not to suggest that France is really any worse off than any of the other European markets, but it is a bit alarming to realize that for an equities market representing an economy of that size and importance, the CAC's performance has been pretty darned anemic.  In fact it is only sitting with a net gain since the Lehman lows that place it uncomfortably between the markets of Austria and Spain.  And the IBEX of Spain is currently sitting with a net gain since March 2009 of exactly zero.   That's the 'good' news.

Portugal
The markets of Portugal, Italy and Greece are all underwater compared to 4 years ago and it would appear that if there is any inkling of a deflationary phase on the horizon, France is likely next.  Yikes That's scary because the French and Italian economies are not little punks by any stretch of the imagination.  Those are huge participants in the larger European theater although they might be a bit better off if they were to, well... get to work a bit more often.  Who knows, with a little honest effort they could perhaps produce something innovative and stunning like the Germans have been known to do.

So using the Austrian market (in white) on both charts as a handy reference, we move to the next graphic and take a look at the 5 lagging markets whose performance has been lesser than that of Austria.  You'll only see 4 lines on the chart below the $ATX, but in the interest of clarity I left out the Italian market since it is at exactly the same level as the PTDOW (Portugal).  For all intents and purposes if you prefer you can just read the letters P-o-r-t-u-g-a-l as spelling "Italy".  But they don't really.  They spell Portugal  :-)  How beautiful is that landscape?


Right click chart for the option to open it in a new tab and see a much larger version.

And finally just a few general thoughts on the images above.  Although I find it to be absolutely infuriating to see the Russell 2000 sitting at 210% of its value at the 2009 low, I fully understand and accept that this type of performance is actually perfectly normal in a world where liquidity is ample and banks are pigs... whether that liquidity be temporary and artificial or not.  It's just that the banking monsters use that market as a tool for their criminal advantage and at the horrible and crushing expense of all pensioners worldwide, some of whom are 'your' closest friends.

Ravello, Italy
As for what might seem to have been my 'taking a jab at' southern Europeans for being a bit on the lazy side, let me expound on why I can understand that they have that attitude... to a certain extent.  The latitudes that provide some of the very nicest climates anywhere in the world just happen to reside somewhere between the southern Canadian border (49°) and about 35° N.  And naturally, my homeland doesn't fit into that zone.  But lo and behold, in the western hemisphere the United States and the Caribbean fit the bill beautifully.  But I don't particularly want to live in the United States these days although I certainly could have enjoyed that at one time.  So one day recently, while in a dreamy mood filled with wanderlust and visions of beautiful women, I drew lines all the around the world on Google Earth at those lucious latitudes to see which other countries resided between the lines.  And sure as shootin', the entire southern part of Europe is smack in the middle of it, Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, Corsica, Sardinia, Cyprus.  And of course Greece.  Those poor folks simply had the seriously inconvenient misfortune of having been born in some of the most outstanding, relaxing, beautiful, laziness-inducing scenic climates in the entire solar system.  From that perspective I envy those people more than I can express in words.

But one thing I learned in 6th grade that I've never forgotten was Ellsworth Huntington's Theory of environmental determinism.  Today more than ever I am 100% convinced that his thesis represents a huge key to understanding the mindset we see throughout all of southern Europe.  I don't blame those people for expressing the attitude they do nor for living the lifestyle they do.  It's oh so understandable.  In a nutshell, what Mr. Huntington's theory proposes is that the colder the climate is that people are living in, the harder working those people are.  The reasons are pretty darned basic as well; first, without gorgeous warm beaches crawling with beautiful people there's not a hell of a lot else except to find something useful to do, and secondly, it's basically a matter of survival.  It really boils down to the fact that in cold climates hard work is literally 'essential' in order to just keep from freezing to death.  As a long time resident of the Great White North I can testify to the veracity of that argument.  It's even worse during winter.

Those of us who live in the more northerly climes here in the west can't walk down the road and just pick a pineapple or a mango or a banana any time we feel like it.   And they can't do that in northern Europe either.  Bananas aren't exactly in season in Canada right now and they haven't been for the past 17 million years or so.  Although interestingly enough, archaeologists did cause quite a stir a few years ago when they uncovered what was first thought to be a fossil of a banana in northern Alberta from only 10,000 years ago... which later turned out to be nothing more than a frozen penis.  No surprise there!  But in the Mediterranean.... ah yes, you can get grapes there.

Santorini, Greece

But I fear greatly for the future for Europe as well as our own.  And as much as the people of the world might finally be ready to get off their asses and get to work right about now, it might be too late.  All it would take though would be a little cooperation from the global fascist oligarchy who run ruin run every country on this blue planet.  But unfortunately they're simply too greedy to cooperate.  All it would take is that the governments

STOP SPENDING AND START LENDING in large and equal amounts

But alas... as always, greed rules.


 ----------------------   END OF ORIGINAL ARTICLE   -----------------------


Hat tip to 'westcoast' for providing a link to an excellent video series from PBS about the "Crash of '29".  Why does it seem like his timing is eerily 'right on schedule'?  Here's Part 1:




Until next time...




...........

95 comments:

  1. I need to move to Portugal.  And Italy.  And Greece.  Via German river overpass, preferably.

    AR--why $PTDOW and not $PSI?  Or, asked another way, why $IBEX, $CAC, $ATX, etc and not $ESDOW, $FRDOW, $GRDOW, etc?

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  2. I give up.  Because I'm stupid?  What's the answer?  lol

    The only reason I used those is that they are more readily recognized indices and are the ones found on ForexPros.   But I plugged in a few of the indices you mentioned and for some reason my chart kind of morphed into this.  So I don't know what's up with that.

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  3. When in doubt, more beer.

    Stockcharts' $PSI data does seem to have missing data in late 2009/early 2010, so I guess that's good reason to use $PTDOW instead.  Even after the cavity, the two Portuguese proxies diverge noticeably:
    http://rationalinsolvency.com/2013/02/p022613c.png
    Spain, by contrast:
    http://rationalinsolvency.com/2013/02/e022613c.png

    Also a disparity, but substantially less so (owing to more liquidity in that market?).  Since the pairs are varietally imperfect, the intraday vs EOD update frequency probably isn't the reason for the divergence?  Anyone else have insight on what we're missing?  There's some sort of manzanas to maçãs comparison going on...

    Bottom line, the qualitative relative performance doesn't change between the countries, which is your point.  I've just gotten spoiled by your always in-depth answers, so I threw the question out there, fishing for more free knowledge.  And now I know that you, too, sleep on the floor :P

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  4. Starting to suspect we might be looking at a 1-2, 1-2 lower.  Odds are probably against that but if that's the case we'd be in for a hell of a drop later this week and most of next.  Some of the moving averages don't rule that scenario out at all.

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  5. Nice comparative charts there, AR!

    Speaking of leading the way, on the daily, JNK and HYG look like they're already reaching the peak of a 2, and Nasdaq Transports appear to already be headed down in a 3 wave.And once again the SP500 is apparently so distorted, there's no way of knowing what its count might be.

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  6. Thanks PB.  It's not "analysis" per se, but just a handy reference more than anything else.  About today's action... it's just that I get very suspicious when a move seems as contrived as it does today.  Especially in IWM which just means that JPM is up to their standard routine.  Hard to say if it's just more 'painting the illusion' or if there really is another big leg higher.  I mean, that downside the other day was very impressive and it rolled over some MAs that don't usually roll over without reason. There are a couple of signals on the chart too that (for now at least) support my suspicion.  A sustained thrust here though would likely negate them.   We should know shortly.

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  7. I'm going to say a pullback of 5 to 10% soon, which would be between 12672 and 13376 on the Dow, and between 1377 and 1454 on the SP500. Then a strong bounce back up to possibly new highs, which will be THE highs. And if that plays out, I'm going be shouting "SHORT ALL THE THINGS!" and have to glue my hands in my pockets to keep from going nuts buying puts.

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  8. You know, I thought I knew about the great depression, but watching this video is downright eerie. I am looking at cnbc today with hilarious disbelief, they actually have a ticker with "# of points and % to 07 highs" for SP500 and dow.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ccNilnpvbJg

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  9. "SHORT ALL THE THINGS".

    God that's a funny line.  Thanks for the chuckle.

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  10. Talk about a hoard of mindless cheerleaders, eh?  I wouldn't be able to live with myself if I was such a blatant shallow charlatan as those guys are.

    Thanks for the video link.  I think that series offers such a good "review" that I'm going to embed it below the article above.

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  11. I'll admit to "knowing" of the booming 20s and depression 30s, but I had no idea how uncannily "peak"ish 1929 looked. 6 days before the crash, famous market movers said "things have never been better" and we are in store for a decade of prosperity.

    Speaking of the negative energy associated with what these people on TV are doing, Cramer has quite a hunchback and he's looking more deformed as time goes on. Like Gollum became more twisted over time.

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  12. Disclosure: It's paraphrased from this Internet cartoon:

    http://hyperboleandahalf.blogspot.com/2010/06/this-is-why-ill-never-be-adult.html

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  13. Waiting patiently for a retest of highs and then "Short all the things!"

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  14. Keep your powder dry, wait until you see the whites of their eyes. Wait for it...

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  15. ... and then "short all the things".

    God I love that line.

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  16. You know what I think of Cramer don't ya?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vqc0ju5jI4

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  17. Don't matter... it's your line.  Next time you feel like writing something bearish you might consider using it as the title.  Might work.

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  18. informative, interesting, entertaining, what else you got? and toss me a six-pack! :)

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  19.  so true. everything i've read about that era was how GREAT things were...until...the bottom fell out.

    now with communication being so much better, lots of folks know that all is NOT well, but everyone keeps tap dancing and plate spinning, but when the music stops it's gonna be brutal.

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  20. How about the Dow making a new high.
    Is that a megaphone top?

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  21. What the hell?  Did you hit 'em all?  lol

    Do you know which one pleases me the most?

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  22.  that's a loaded question..... lol
    umm...toss me a six-pack?

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  23. My father was well into his 40's when I was born so he was a young man back then.  In fact he was in California to play pro baseball on the day that market crash started.  A pretty rare thing for a 23 year old Canadian kid I can tell ya.  But many years later, when I was about 14 I asked him what the depression was like.  And he said he didn't even really notice it.  That would probably be because he was already used to the hard times up here in Alberta and it was basically nothing new to him.  Not much money, no debts... it didn't really effect him.  Back in those days Albertans didn't even realize we were sitting on a black gold mine.  We didn't even know we had oil until the Leduc No.1 blew up in a huge gusher in 1947.

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  24.  California is a long way from Alberta, to play pro ball no less. Life's a crazy thing sometimes.

    yeah, my mom's parents had a farm in Iowa, so my mom only remembers hobo's coming to the door and asking for work or some food. Otherwise, life was normal for her as they grew or raised or made pretty much everything they needed.

    My dad's parents lived in Manhattan and were in the thick of things with the long breadlines and masses of people out of work. Made a huge impression on my Dad and my grandmother always told us kids stories about the depression.

    Two different perspectives depending on where you lived.

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  25. Here ya go Miss.  Or did you mean 'cold' ones?

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  26. For sure.  We were from a very small town when I was a little guy and I even remember a hungry man approaching me one time and asking me if I would ask my mother if she could make him a sandwich.  I was playing in our yard with a very low picket fence and the stranger kept his distance and just asked politely from the other side of the fence.  I might have been about 5.  So I ran in the house and told my mom.  So she made him some sandwiches and I took them out to the guy.  He thanked me and left.  I'll never forget that.

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  27. It's a periscope reverse apostrophe formation. Copyright (c) 2013 by Boulemetrics Diversified Consolidated LLC. All riots preserved.

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  28. Yeah that's me... It's a great place, perfect location in case SHTF ;)

    Vancouver and Victoria were well isolated during the financial crisis due to the strong housing market.. not so sure about this time, and politicians are looking to squeeze more money than ever from BC residents.

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  29.  LOL.  i think cold ones. please.

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  30. Thanks for the excellent post AR, I'm gonna have to start getting your site on my phone since I can't get it at work.  But glad I can get to twitter during the day.  We were both seeing a 1-2, i-ii the past week, eh?  I think it's good orchestration they get these fake good news things to get it almost back to the prior high.  A 2nd chance for them to sell I'd think.

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  31. I agree ... doubt they get above the high of a few days ago before the Monday blood bath.

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  32. My pleasure Greg, thanks for stopping in.  I'm certainly not 'convinced' that it's a 1-2, 1-2 situation but there are a few signals that suggest 'maybe' it is.  Like on the VIX.  If the VIX doesn't break below 13.50 then I think it could be on its way to 21.  In that case the market tanks.  I think we're going to know tomorrow.  If the S&P doesn't pull back soon and sharply then Bernanke and Co. might be taking it much higher as depicted by Permabear in the chart below.
    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UAe1SZd78Bk/US4Nu2Ka4WI/AAAAAAAAb-M/KljohdTWbpo/s1600/Perma.png

    Yeah, the orchestration and jawboning is enough to drive people nuts. But it has sure worked for them for 4 years now.  And then there's that little matter of sequestration.  Ho hum... just another fly to swat.  Amazing is it not?

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  33.  ODG ... another new high?!?  I know, anything is possible with these talking heads.  But surely these 4 distribution days out of 7 will carry some weight and likely turn the market down ... a classic topping signal.  Tis surely amazing that enough people still believe that tool box hooey -- this is a twilight zone world.

    And the sequestration, yes, the market has ignored that -- not much in the news about it.  But looking at a chart, it's right there ... the relief rally at the end of the year when they bought 2 more months, and now the 4 distribution days near the end of those two months.  But what is it, 2.5 million workers all taking a 20% pay cut for 6 months?  If they all make 100,000, that is 20,000 x 2,500,000 = 5,000,000,000.  5B.  It's not nothing to them.  Although, my wife is a federal employee, and she's looking forward to having Friday's off.  :)

    Maybe the dollar is liking sequestration.  And bonds.  Or they are liking the European scare.

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  34. Greg I doubt you've ever seen my chart referred to as the "insanely bullish" nightmare.  I drew it up one night in November just as a matter of much needed therapy basically.  It represents the scenario where the bankers win.  They are somehow able to kick the can down the road for another 4 years, food prices would probably go up 300-500% causing starvation all over the planet.  War would probably be involved otherwise how could they possibly justify borrowing enough money (selling bonds) required to allow the FED to print that much?  It's a mind bogglingly bad scenario but in spite of that, equities would explode higher with a crashing dollar... just like the Nikkei is exploding higher right now with a crashing Yen.

    There are two scenarios on this chart.  The upper one is the insanely bullish vision.  The lower one is far more likely the real situation.  Whatever it turns out to be, I found it to be a rather important exercise in order to "force myself" to consider every possibility, even the one I would detest the most.
    SPX Monthly Insanity

    Can you stick around for a short while tonight?  I'm bored and I've got a couple of charts to show ya as well as a bunch of funny-ass pictures.

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  35. Here's just a little look-back at a chart or two from a week or two ago.  We were trying to get a handle on where the Euro would be headed.  I just noticed tonight that I still had the earlier image on my desktop, so I can give you a 'before' and 'after'.  One of those times when it worked out pretty much as envisioned.  

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  36.  Hey, nice counting and projecting!  It's always good to be prepared for at least two scenarios, and I think it's good to try to see how the bullish scenario might look.  Makes us more flexible so we can change more quickly, and a good lesson for me to learn.  I do agree that the lower one looks more likely, but ya never know.

    Yes, I'm back from my run, and should be up till 12 (my new bedtime).

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  37. Ok.  I threw a couple of charts up at the top.  One 'before' and one 'after.  I'll go up there now and drop off another pair.

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  38. And here's another 'before' and 'after' pair.  Just for shits and giggles.

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  39. And finally, a few pictures that have been crackin' me up for long enough now that I have to get it out of my system by showing them to somebody else, lol.

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  40.  Just dropped in to say hi. U never answer my qt about your friend"sell all things" track record.
    Now Alberta Rocks....is that your way of saying u love that freezing place or u a geologist ?

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  41. Hey I see u added my blog! So sweet of u. Thanks!

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  42.  I remember that chart ... clearly a five waver i down and an ii up ... why'd I not stay with that trade I wonder ... perfect iii after that ... well called.  Now a iv, v, and an abc'er, and a nice bigger degree three waver coming up ...

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  43.  AR....................as psychology interests me, i am going to have to ponder that series of photos and why they crack you up. :)

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  44.  Cool, will check them out ... my eyelids are getting droopy again ... but glad you were back in the pub before I konked out.  Yes, that EURUSD ... was a very good call, and I'm wondering why I lost track of that one.  But the next three waver down, I'm there.

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  45.  Haha ... gotta love that duck and dog (WTH?! he's thinking) one, and the fox mingling with the dogs.  And that pumpkin one is a classic.  Thanks for the laughs.

    G'night good sir.

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  46.  what i find disturbing is that I don't think they KNOW they are blatant, shallow, charlatans. Too deep of a thought process for the talking heads.

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  47.  oh yeah and that pumpkin one! heehee. a truly original idea !

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  48. I was wondering if that a pic of you in your drinking days? :)

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  49.  I am quite bearish too over the medium term but mainly because of this

    http://fireangelmaverick.blogspot.com/2013/02/is-secular-bear-still-alive-part-2.html

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  50.  I actually found you through Blueskies, the other lovely lady out there.Souljester had mentioned your blog when I started as well.

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  51. My dear, I'm quite insulted.  I had to go to considerable trouble to get that picture of Wagner passed out like that.  But that's how I envision him... as being about as useful to society as that dude is.  Yes, I'm sure the fox is photoshopped, but I thought the caption "What Are We Lookin' For" would have worked really well with that one.  The caption under the dog and duck should be "Guess Who Just Found Out Ducks Can Talk!"  That one with the cow photobombing the horse made me laugh so hard I think I cracked a rib.

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  52.  omg. that made me LOL about Wags. maybe we should tweet it around twitterland with his name underneath. and in parenthesis, "Head of Trolls at Daneric's Troll Blog" or something to that effect. I can work something up ala Banzai. heehee.

    I loike your captions!

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  53. My dear, I'm quite insulted.  I had to go to considerable trouble to get that picture of Wagner passed out like that.  But that's how I envision him... as being about as useful to society as that dude is.  Yes, I'm sure the fox is photoshopped, but I thought the caption "What Are We Lookin' For?" would have worked really well with that one.  The caption under the dog and duck should be "Guess Who Just Found Out Ducks Can Talk!"  That one with the cow photobombing the horse made me laugh so hard I think I cracked a rib.

    I have so many pictures that I've collected, some of them just so beautiful.  I should start a blog dedicated to beautiful and/or amazing pictures but I literally don't have the time for something like that.

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  54. Thanks for the link.  The reason I am bearish is almost totally due to my understanding of where money comes from and why it therefore eventually 'has to' collapse back into the imaginary void it was birthed from in the first place... thin air.  Since all money is 'loaned into existence', when we finally get to that stage that bankruptcies begin to happen on a super large scale (Lehman) or even worse yet, on a sovereign basis, then the entire 10 mile long strings of dominoes is doomed.  We've been so, so close to that happening for so long now that it could happen at any time now.  But the bankers keep pulling green out of their arses and pretending it's a good thing.  Kicking the can has been successful so far, but I'm always expecting that at any time some black swan is going to happen and that'll be it.

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  55.  i love photographs too. of places and things and animals, but especially of people.

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  56.  What I don't get... if WE understand all this, how come THEY don't understand all this? or are they just hoping if they kick the can long enough that the collapse will happen after they're dead and gone? ya know? i mean they can't be that stupid can they?

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  57. Yeah, I think the captions make the picture.  Here's one you'll like.  This sign actually exists in a campground in Fort Steele, B.C.  I've seen it.  Also one of Wagner giving birth to his twin and another one about Rex.

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  58. now i am curious as to what the removed comment said!!

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  59.  oh poor doggie. :(
    is that one of the members of Kiss?
    funnay!!!!

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  60. I know and respect that line of thinking. I do not use it too often in discussions as that gets me labeled a doomer. John Hussman believes the way out will be 150% total inflation over 7 years starting around 2016. I am hoping he is right because that will be far less painful (getting debt to asset ratio under control) than the alternate scenario

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  61. Let me show you something amazing then.  I ran across this picture somewhere on the web totally out of the blue.  It's not a picture of me but if I showed it to my two adult children I'm certain they would say "when in hell were you when that picture was taken?"  That guy looks so much like I did about 15 years ago that I just can't believe it.  Built the same, kind of stocky when I was a bit heavier like that guy is, moustache, relaxed.  But I'm not good with horses at all so that wouldn't be me, and I'm slimmer now.  Gotta stay healthy ya know.

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  62.  that's a beautiful horse. ya know, it's funny, i kind of pictured you like that. u still have a moustache? not many men do can grow a good 'stache or wear it well. glad u r staying healthy! i've always been slender. i think i burn energy just sitting still! lol.

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  63. They 'do' understand it perfectly.  Bernanke and Draggy are fighting the deflation monster tooth and nail, trying with all their might not to let it pop out of that bottle.  Because when it does, they are powerless against it.  Once deflation starts it will not stop until it has fully run its course to its own satisfaction.  Deflation begins to feed upon itself and this article describes that aspect quite nicely.
    http://mises.org/daily/6362/The-Deflationary-Spiral-Bogey

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  64.  Did not see the full post initially. What a gorgeous place! Wow!

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  65.  ``The last time the monetary base reached even 17 cents per dollar of nominal GDP was in the early 1940’s. This was not unwound by subsequent monetary tightening, but instead by a near-doubling in the consumer price index by 1952.` From John Hussman`s site. Currently we are at 28 cents per dollar and icnreasing

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  66.  ah a little bedtime reading. thanx!

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  67. yes, we can all feel the cpi going up, and wages stagnant or going down, jobs scarce, healthcare costs out of control. no matter how you slice it. we're all phucked.

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  68. I've seen you comment over at the noisy place and wanted to offer something to your conversations on numerous occasion.  But I'm just not going to participate any more at that place as long as D allows the incredible degree of negativity to flourish there.  I guess you weren't aware, but that's the very reason I started this blog 13 months ago... just to get away from that negativity and to provide myself with a platform where I could compose and launch the occasional article from.  This is a quiet place.  Trolls are shot on sight and permanently.  That's why I left you that comment on your own blog praising your methods... because I see you are willing to slam the trolls hard and fast.  That's what Danno should be doing but by choice, he refuses to.  That's why I refuse to carry his blog in my blog roll.  I can't in good conscience send any of my friends into a god damned maelstrom like that.

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  69.  back in 2008 they should have let the chips fall where they may. and once they started painting them (our) selves into a corner they couldn't (can't) stop. it's like being in a bad trade and doubling down. pretty soon you'll just plain run out of money and have to pay the piper. and it will be much worse than if you had paid earlier on.

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  70.  i'm one of those women who like a nice 'stache. Tom Selleck anyone? heehee. my Dad always wore a moustache, and he wore it well. he would have looked odd without it. some guys just can't grow a proper one. it's sparse and funny looking. but some men... it's totally THEM and looks awesome.

    we have much i common as i am a rebellious anacharist! don't get me goin'..........

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  71. No, the comment was just duplicated so I could add the pics.  Then I deleted the original comment because it was only text, that's all.  The entire comment is still up there but with pictures now.

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  72. thought ya shot a wascally twoll

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  73. No.  It's Mike Wagner giving birth to his own twin, lol.

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  74.  oh yeah you said that! my ADD acting up...

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  75. My track record? Awesome! I've called 47 of the last 2 tops!


    Seriously, I don't chart much anymore because I don't trade anymore. I don't trust the intervention-distorted tickers. I just take a mostly unleveraged position and wait. That top speculation is simply from looking at the last two bubbles to reach these levels, and taking a guess that this one will unwind in much the same way -- except faster and farther, because there's nothing but intervention under it.

    Maybe I'll tell one day how I lost so much more money long in the market than short, and how I changed from a naive, trusting, buy-and-hold bull into a much better informed bear. But it would probably devolve into a long rant, so I'll hold off for now. :)

    And seriously, based on the last two major top analogs, if the market corrects 5 to 10% soon, and starts a quick march back up to retest or exceed the highs, I really will be shouting "SHORT ALL THE THINGS!"

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  76. I don't get many right Greg, so I just put those two charts up there in order to try to convince people that I'm not a total lost cause when it comes to EW. :-)

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  77. Papa, Fireangel has started her own blog and Wagner is banned.  She's getting a lot of traffic over there because she's prettier than I am.  But the people dropping in to her site are pretty good folks from the noisy place.  And she's got a big troll gun just like I do and she knows how to use it.  So Wags is banned.  You might want to drop in and see if that crowd might suit your fancy because the discussions are about 'trading' and 'markets' and not all about bashing each other and creating nothing but negativity.  "The Social Misfit" is not there.  YAY!

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  78. Will check it out. Thanks!

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  79. hi, AR. John had a great post (on the noisy place) about the GreedOmeter http://www.triwealth.com/subscribers/newsletters/greedometer-newsletter-february-27-2013-wow/

    and here's another Fear and Greed indicator http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=EL

    any number of metrics suggest risk-on is overbought, but the bulltards are as obnoxious as ever.

    thanks again for keeping a civil blog. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7U3lo80YrQ

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  80. Thanks for the links David.  You're most welcome about keeping the civil blog... that should just be standard procedure though.  Everybody who runs a blog should keep it positive and not let the negativity override our goals.  If I was running an actual office with a staff of 20 or 40, any rabble rouser would get a private meeting with me behind closed doors and be read the riot act... either contribute something positive instead of pissing on everybody else's work or ship out.  Final warning!  Are you aware that Fireangel ha started up a pretty good blog.  Some of the better participants from the noisy place but king asshole has been banned... just as he is banned here and every other blog in the solar system.  Just click her name.

    Thanks again for the links.

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  81. here's an interesting picture. the couple insists that the demonic canine form over the man's left shoulder was in no way visible when they stood for the picture.

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  82. Hallllooooo anybuddly home???? Quiet day twitter-wise and here too. Currencies did some crazy pops annda some kwazy drops. SPX still sloppin and churnin as i'm sure yall saw. hasn't stayed too far from 1500 in either direction has it?

    will check back later to see if the bar is open. LOL. it's not five o'clock yet......

     

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  83. 4 distribution days out of 6 days at first, and now 4 more nothing days and we have 4 distribution days out of 10.  Plenty enough for a strong top signal according to IBD.  But my friends who follow IBD are now saying, yeah, but if you look at the weekly, it's 4 weeks tight, so we're probably all right.

    Such is the power of those in control of some portion of these wiggles.   They managed to hide their massive selling on the daily when you look at the weekly (as evidenced by the volume). 

    But that selling is still a signal that they were getting out, and they have not been getting back in with the same volume.

    I think THEY need more time to position for a down market as they may have been surprised by the Fed's signal that QEternity could be ending this year.
     

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  84.  hence the churning and slop

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  85. The Dow is still painting that expanding formation on the daily, that chop is still within the expanding zone of the "periscope." HYG and JNK turned south in a big way, strongly signalling risk off again. And talk about leading the way -- they both look like they're starting a 3 down on the daily. Interesting bounce back in the USD/JPY. Nasdaq Transports are just looking ugly. Trying to put a count on those would be a challenge. One anecdotal thing -- I've noticed some very thin skins and short fuses today.

    I'm guessing next week is gonna be... interesting.

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  86.  as nomead said on another blog i check out...that's a triangle on they SPY and it's gonna resolve hard in one direction or another.

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  87. VXX and volume
    Though a new index, rate of increase in volume behind the $VXX (ST volatility ETN) is significant: http://stks.co/aMLY

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  88. Nice observations PB.  JNK should be a canary -- that's one of the bubbles Ben's worried about.
    And USDJPY has bounced back up to the daily channel line it broke with the worst looking daily candle since 2008 -- likely would be resistance.  And that thin skin and short fuses thing is a good social mood barometer, eh?

    Barron's observations were that while Ben said Fed still at market's back, there is a subtle shift in the market winds, bonds and dollar are firming, while stocks are laboring.  Industrials, martarials, and commodity-related issues are all lagging.  Financials are also struggling.  Apple is not bouncing back. 

    IMO, that Dollar firming could be a big deal, and surely the risk of a dollar-carry trade unwind is not being priced in to the market. It's one signal deflationists have been waiting for.  Altho loyal bulls would say, "yeah, but a strong dollar can also mean a vote of confidence in the US economy."  Maybe Friday's surge was for that alleged reason.  But for weeks before that it's been more the case that other currnecies were very weak.  EUR, GBP, JPY, and AUD.  Loyal bulls will also conveniently forget that for many years a rising market came while the dollar was weakening with credit expansion.  One coworker said to me this week, "how can the market go down while the dollar is going up?!"  Meanwhile, they weren't at all bothered by the market going up and the dollar down for periods.  There are several strong dollar things in play: budget cuts, gas production is good for current account balance for US, and safe-haven plays.

    EWI pointed out that SPY and EURUSD have been moving in tandem for much of the time ... although on the recover day for SPY, EURUSD did not bounce back ... maybe more weakness for the euro ahead they suspect.

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  89. happy weekend all. twas a funny night last night, very quiet out in blog and twitterLand, even my personal email was quiet!. i was working on some currency charts this morgnin and trying to get a read on what may be going where next week. not getting a clear picture on much of anything except to wait. had a nice audcad trade on friday but covered it even though i do think it is going lower. it's one those that is sitting on short term trendline after that big selloff and may see a bounce. i am short usdchf but it closed right on support so 9420 would have to give way for more downside, which may not be likely if euro sells some more and usd marches higher.

    everyone is watching the jpy pairs. i wanted to shoot myself for not staying long usdjpy. taking profit too soon is a weakness i am trying to overcome. it's a tough one. i am always best with bracketing and not watching so i don't second guess my original plan. plan the trade, trade the plan Blue!

    the key to all the currencies, of course, is....risk off or risk on? we're in no man's land on that short term. risk off WILL happen in a big way, but SPX marches on up, though bears DID defend the 1519 mark on friday. but not by much!

    as the magic 8 ball says, answer is hazy, try again later.

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  90. here's a helpful link to the COT report for currencies

    http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/commitments-of-traders

    and also a helpful link as to how to read the COT report for currencies.  http://www.investopedia.com/walkthrough/forex/trading-strategies/long-term/cot-report.aspx#ixzz2MQuum29j

    prolly stuff yall already know, but i have been forgetting to check it until i saw it mentioned on ZH.

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  91. I think THEY understand where this is headed, but their only hope is to extend and pretend ... and hope that with some growth or some time for some growth we can grow our way out of the too much debt problem. 

    But I think THEY know there is no solution to deflation and debt detruction.  All this money given to banks to speculate hasn't stopped their mortgage loans from going under.  Real estate values have continued to go down.  Whole countries still have too much debt.  None of that changed.

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  92. Nice article, thanks!
    I think the destruction of credit (loan defaults) also fuels the lower prices ... less money to bid prices up.  Not just the expectation of lower prices that becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy.

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