This article was first published last Wednesday, Feb. 6. Since that time it has been updated with the addition of a series of fabulous currencies charts put together by contributor Darkestknight. Considering that he actually trades currencies while I don't, he therefore has a considerably better focus on them and a better handle on them than I do. This update happened quite by accident. Darkestknight had simply offered a set of 3 or 4 links to some of his charts in the comments section. Those charts were so good that I felt they deserved to be highlighted in the article itself... so I simply amended the article to display them more readily. Once DK saw that I had done that, he stepped up to the plate and offered even more charts that tied the whole set together. What is evolving here is a masterful set of currencies charts that I think deserve a whole lot more attention than simply being buried in links in a comments section of a blog. Whether the counts are right or wrong is irrelevant... we all understand that all markets are dynamic and constantly evolving. Fortunately DarkestKnight is very nimble with his counts, quick to recognize a meaningful turn of events and is very honest about making a fast change if he sees need to amend his counts. Personally, I love this set of charts and am more than happy to highlight great work like this. Therefore, this article is being republished with the addition of at least seven of DK's contributions. It may possibly be amended even further.
The original article began with this:
The action in the currency markets has been taking a major league turn as of late. There has been a lot of action on so many fronts recently but really, all that action has been in pretty much every currency in the world 'except' the American dollar. The only exception would be the Canadian currency since it is extremely tightly linked to the American dollar... approximately equally as much as it is correlated to the health of the American economy itself. Those two currencies also represent the ties between the two biggest trading blocks in the world and as such, it is critically important that that particular pair remain stable and that they be prevented from wandering too far from each other.
As a result, very close attention is paid to managing that pair and for that reason I have always maintained that investors who look at the USD:CAD pair for guidance on the equities markets are barking up the wrong tree. Only when there are extreme stresses in the American economy will the Loonie start to wander off as the Canadian economy begins to suffer as well. On the other hand, if the American dollar begins to tank relative to "real goods" like gold, the Canadian dollar will soar since the value of the majority of the commodities coming out of Canada would soar in value as well... regardless of demand for them. If they're rising in value, they're rising in value.
At present, the key currencies in the limelight other than the Euro (which fluctuates for entirely different reasons) have been the Yen and the Australian dollar. Without trying to predict the direction of the key currency pairs (the Aussie:Yen and the USD:Yen), let's take a look at the general story in the daily chart below which shows all 3... the USD, Yen and Aussie, along with the S&P. Speaking in general terms, the annotations discuss what's going on:
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| Click here for a live and updating version |
==== AT THIS POINT DARKESTKNIGHT'S CONTRIBUTIONS BEGAN TO POUR IN ====
DarkestKnight is one of a group of Australians who seem to have a real good grasp on wave counting. If I recall correctly I think he said he's British born, living in Australia. Another Aussie with talents like this is 'mars', another good guy and his haunt of preference is over on Pretzel's site. But we have the luxury of having DK drop in here from time to time with some great contributions. In any case, I don't know why Aussies seem to be so good at being able to see (and demonstrate) EW patterns and counts as clearly as they do, but I suspect it has something to do with the fact that in the land down under they must be looking at their charts upside down. Then they flip 'em over so we in the north can understand them. In any case, DarkestKnight has posted links in the comments section below [referring to the original article] to some really good charts. I'm going to insert some of them here for reference.
UPDATE: Once DK noticed that we were highlighting some of his charts here (I hadn't asked his permission but since he's been a friend of yours truly for quite a while and a friend of this blog since its inception I didn't think he'd mind), he suggested that we should probably start off with his weekly chart that would help put the others into proper context. So we've arranged the charts so they flow from longest to shortest in duration. And thanks DK for submitting more charts after seeing that I had posted your first 4 offerings. It's become a pretty impressive full kit now. With credit to DK and with thanks from this entire community, here are his excellent contributions:
HINT: Left click on any chart to open the 'lightbox' feature of Blogger and you can then toggle between all charts on a post. That capability works really well with DK's
DK's overall opinion about the path of the AUD:JPY pair is based on the first chart, which is a monthly that only goes back to 1980. It seems that to get data any earlier than that might be a bit of a challenge. Even StockCharts only offers data going back to that same date. So without benefit of a longer term view, and working with only the most recent 22 years worth of data... he begins:
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| AUD:JPY Monthly - as you can see here, StockCharts' records also only go back to 1990 |
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| DarkestKnight's AUD:JPY Weekly - Click here for a larger version |
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| DarkestKnight's AUD:JPY Daily - click here for a larger version |
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| DarkestKnight's USD:JPY 4 hour - click here for a larger version |
AUD:USD CHARTS BELOW THIS POINT
(British pound at the bottom)
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| DarkestKnight's AUD:USD Weekly - click here for a larger version |
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| DarkestKnight's AUD:USD Daily - Possible mutated H&S - click here for a larger version |
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| DarkestKnight's AUD:USD 4 hour - click here for a larger version |
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| AUD:USD - 30 Min - Click here for a larger version |
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| DarkestKnight's British Pound:USD 4 hour - click here for a larger version |
While you're perusing DarkestKnight's great charts, please feel free to select the beverage of your choice. Not in the mood for a brew right now? Maybe this ad from Australia will change your mind. Turn your speakers up, the music is great in this one.
Awesome post Albertarocks! I think Darkestknight's work is just masterful, and it deserves this kind of highlighting. Others may not be as aware of the awesomeness of his currency counts. I follow him around on the internet :). An elliott wave master, I'd say. There is a fortune in store in those charts as he's unlocked a few mysteries.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the kind words AR.
ReplyDeleteBut i'm not quite finished yet!
This very long-term chart on AUDJPY (from 1990) I just found and doctored may cast even more light on current machinations.
http://screencast.com/t/EslXfh0nXI
If this mega-longterm-bearish-triangle holds up it has 2 very important implications;
1. Current C wave up is last leg of (E) of very long-term BEARISH triangle, and
2. It is not part of a flat, and need not travel 90% of preceding wave..and so could end any time from here...da daaaa!
QED?
DK
ps interpreting & extrapolating very long-term charts is frought with danger...but I'm always willing to give it a go.
And if anyone can find a chart that goes back even further I would be most pleased to see it.
I want to see that chart too!
ReplyDeleteThere's (purchaseable) data back to the early 1970s here:http://www.goldmarketdata.com/gmdlist6.php
http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/free/chartind1CRUl.php?ticker=FUTAD
http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/free/chartind1CRUl.php?ticker=FUTJY
Mid-80s look pretty gnarly.
Could you explain why you're ruling out that current wave is C of (D)?
Thanks for the info Zim.
ReplyDeleteYou are right, my triangle could be upside-down (wouldn't be the first time, lol), that's why I'm interested in what happened before 1990.
But I'm thinking a triangle would make much more sense as a (4) in a long downtrend...otherwise...I dunno. But that's part of the problem with longer term charts, for example the AUD wasn't even floated until the 80's? so they are liable to not make to much sense.
There is a degree of guesswork there for sure.
Dk
long everything here
ReplyDeleteAUDUSD 30min
ReplyDeletecould be a bit premature, but maybe a flat forming for [2] after a nasty B wave?
http://screencast.com/t/BaiUD3Pij
Thanks for the monthly chart DK, I'm sure everyone else is as pleased as I am to see that you don't seem perturbed that we're focusing on your work here and really enjoying it. It's just great that you jumped on board and even added more charts. Judging by your chat with Zim though, I'm not sure if you want me to pop that monthly chart up into the article or not? Would you please let me know?
ReplyDeleteYou may as well put it up, might get a few pulses racing..but maybe with the caveat that only having half a chart to work with makes it rather speculative.
ReplyDeleteOk, coming right up.
ReplyDeleteThere is really something wrong in the world when every single index on the planet moves in the same direction, nearly the same amount, tick for tick day in and day out. I mean, even with all the money in the world at one's disposal, how in hell does one pull this off? There 'has to be' some sort of trigger mechanism or signal that's being controlled by one entity. And we're supposed to believe it's a real market. This is not a concept I'm bitching about from the perspective of a bull nor a bear, but from the perspective of every sane citizen of the world who is aware that it's become the most blatantly and shamelessly rigged market in the history of humanity. I thought there were laws against criminal manipulation. I mean, the evidence is right there before our eyes on a tick for tick basis that the entire global equities market moves as one, every second of every day. Somebody should spend a month or two in jail for this type of thing... you know, to send them a message to knock it off before they hurt someone.
ReplyDeleteEURUSD target = 1.37+
ReplyDeleteBy the way, don't forget that Discus is going to dictate to us that we won't be able to use this format for much longer. Should I change it over now to see what it looks like?
ReplyDeleteChoice and personal control is becoming increasingly rare on the Internet. It's becoming all about dictating your experience. It's like it's turning into TV. Maybe soon you just turn it on and watch it.
ReplyDeleteOk, we'll leave it until the day they just change it for us. Bastages.
ReplyDeleteIt's just more clear evidence to me that the market tickers are not accurate reflections of social mood anymore. It's like the passengers feel like the ship is sinking (and polls and several bellwethers support this), and they would have already abandoned ship under normal circumstances. But the crew has been giving out prizes, and greed keeps everyone hanging around on deck, afraid they'll miss out on more prizes, and they just keep hanging around hoping for the next round of them.
ReplyDeleteSomebody's gonna blink soon.
Outstanding and Incredible work DK.
ReplyDeleteAll this currency talk is real treat Zim might be right. Before the AUD was floated in 1983 it was pegged to the GBPhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_dollar#Value_of_the_Australian_dollarwhich was also falling in the 70shttp://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/free/chartind1CRUvoi.php?ticker=FUTBPOn the other hand, if you take gold as a proxy for commodity based risk that the AUD represents now, then your view might be the way to gohttp://www.sharelynx.com/charts/aujy5.gifhttp://www.sharelynx.com/charts/auau5.gifThat mid 80's gnarliness was the tilling of the big rudderhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plaza_Accord
Certainly not my kind music but you get the message. Could you imagine actually hearing this crap when you're out in the mid north Atlantic after dark in a ship that's listing to port. I'll tell ya what... I sure as hell wouldn't be looking for some fair maiden to dance with.
ReplyDeleteTen people who were scheduled to board the Titanic but for various reasons failed to get on board... some of whom could make up a list of who's who among the wealthy and 'connected'. Chief among them, J. P. Morgan himself:
ReplyDelete"An incredible stroke of bad luck that turned out to be good luck befell three prominent industrial leaders (Henry Clay Frick, JP Morgan, and J. Horace Harding) who were all set to board the Titanic, in April 1912. The three are linked so I listed them as a single entry. Henry Clay Frick, one of the wealthiest Americans of the early 20th Century with vast holding in steel manufacturing, originally booked passage for himself and his wife aboard the Titanic, in February 1912. But while they were in Europe, Mrs. Frick suffered an accident in Madeira and sprained her ankle. Upon arriving in Italy she was admitted to a hospital. This caused a delay in the travel plans for the Frick’s and they were forced to give up their suite aboard the Titanic. Instead, the suite (B-52, 54, and 56) went to JP Morgan. Morgan was, of course, one of the wealthiest and most powerful men in the world in 1912, with his vast banking fortune. But Morgan himself was forced to alter his travel plans when he decided to prolong his visit in Europe. The reservations were once more turned over, this time to J. Horace Harding and his wife. Harding was another prominent banker. But the couple was able to get an earlier sailing date aboard Mauretania. The unlucky suite would eventually be taken by White Star Line Chairman J. Bruce Ismay."
And here's a picture of the demon himself, the man who said "I don't get migraines, I give 'em."
ps interpreting & extrapolating very long-term charts is frought with danger...
ReplyDeleteI'd think so, since currencies don't move the way equities do in the long term. Currencies move in relation to one another, rather than in absolute value from a baseline. So you'd probably have a hard time using them for larger degree stuff. I think they excel on the macro level. I'd think you'd just have to take your cues from other sources as to how the moves may be nested in the larger degree waves.
Triangle could be [Y] of a combo IV, be "upside down," and still resolve in the direction you've indicated! It could be many things...trouble with missing context (as you said).
ReplyDeleteNot trying to pick on your count at all, rather, trying to pick your brain. Thanks for the thoughts.
I think this main topic is itching to be renamed "daylight from darkestknight"
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article38751.html. Nadeem Walayat.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-11/how-fed-handing-over-billions-profits-foreign-banks-each-year
ReplyDeleteThis needs to go viral. Please send this to 5 other blogs. Don't break the
chain. ;-)
This is my 5th.
works until it doesn't
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-11/sovereign-defaults-past-and-present-one-chart
Darkest Knight is a fine fellow AR. I used to be his secretary and he always treated me well .He embodies the finest qualities of the Australian and English nations, a straight talking bloke with an interest in cricket,who needs a bath :)
ReplyDeleteUSDJPY daily count -- 4 hrly to come later.
ReplyDeleteI think my count of a few days ago may have been better than my revised count (after I altered it this weekend, dought!).
This little correction last week may have indeed been a (iv) and not a ii, now that we are at a new high.
It corrected back to a [iv] of the prior (iii) too.
DK -- I think USDJPY IF it's in extended fifth wave target 107, that will help your AUDJPY get to that upper line of abcde in that long-term chart. Due to further JPY weakening.
The volume is a clue that this thing is not done. Volume in this fifth wave (or i of 5) dwarfs what was in the third wave. And it's moving faster too.
USDJPY: 4Hrly
ReplyDeletefunny I posted both links on the same post in my blog :)
ReplyDeleteSo the Fed is paying all this interest on the free money they created, and it's going to foreign banks?
ReplyDeleteWhy would they do that? Are these foreign banks owned by the Rothschilds and they in turn own the Fed?
Well, it looks like the last 2 candles on SPY formed a potential bearish reversal, bearish harami cross. Needs confirmation tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteSo, today the US said they don't mind the yen weakening.
ReplyDeletePeople thought the US might take issue with the yen trashing at the G-20 meeting. But no, so USDJPY is up another 2%.
Well, maybe, just maybe, the US doesn't mind Japan printing lots of yens because Japan is buying up US debt
SO THE US DOESN"T HAVE TO DO THE PRINTING.
Mon dieu!
Very interesting ... so the mid 1980's the US devalued the dollar 50% in 2 years (300 to 150) to help with exports and the trade deficit with Japan (tho that part didn't work). Which some think caused the overvalued real estate in Japan and the lost two decades. And now Japan is doing the same exact thing. I like the line where "it was managed until speculators took over." Japan recently expressed shock at how quickly the yen has fallen.
ReplyDeleteMaybe they remain the best reflection? Maybe our collective delusion that there's some knight in shining armor on a white horse on his way to save us is no better crystallized than by "all the same market" levitation untethered to traditional fundamental analysis or common sense? That it's ok, the powers that be are "in charge?" That just because there are people that are jobless, homeless, or hungry, the problem we should be worried about is rebalancing our 401k or getting a Galaxy since they're becoming more popular than iPhones--or so that report on that news channel I love (not the one I hate, but that does mostly the same stories anyway) said; and they seemed really excited about it and there was this ad with a really pretty girl who said she'd give me a great deal on one. But I need it now...now...NOW because there's this sense I can't quite articulate, but seems to seeping from every communication, every action, every technological advance that we'd all better hurry. We'd better not give the rally a second's pause. We'd better not blink.
ReplyDeleteNah, this social mood as viewed through financial markets baloney is a bunch of misguided hogwash afterall. Stocks have reached a permanently high plateau.
The test of a man's character is not when times are easy, but when they aren't. TA is difficult right now. That doesn't mean it's without substance.
Haha... he needs a bath does he? Where ya been my man? You haven't swung by here in a long time. Come to think of it maybe it's time I took a bath too. Anyone else? Anyone want to take a bath with me? It's a once a month thing we do around here just to make sure we're always nice and fresh, and it always ends up being a great big honkin' party. Lot's of laughter, lots of music, lots of food, lots of wine and spirits, plenty of people, lots of lovin'. By the way, gentlemen excluded.
ReplyDeleteIf there's any interest involved the Fed is collecting it. My guess is that it's the American people who are paying the interest for rent on the money that the Fed legally owns and has the right to rent to the American government (the people). But he has shipped it to Europe for 'their' use. As Durden pointed out "In other words, the cash that the Fed is creating out of thin air by
ReplyDeletemonetizing the US deficit, is going solely and exclusively to European
banks and a handful of other foreign banks" So there ya have it... Americans are paying the interest to the Fed for rent on money that the Fed shipped to Europe.
I'll take a stab at answering your question Greg. I'd say that the Fed, being just one big cog in the wheel of the global banking mafia is scared shitless that their European cogs just might go bankrupt. One domino... they could stand for even one freakin' domino to fall or the entire mile long chain of them collapses. And that means the bankers would likely collapse. So my guess is that he's just trying to save the entire cabal and all their asses, partially at the expense of the American taxpayer.
Exactly. Mr. Walayat steadfastly refuses to even consider that any deflationary outcome is even possible. He refuses to acknowledge that there are more countries on the verge of bankruptcy in Europe alone than there are honest politicians. That means there are at least 4 because there are only 3 honest politicians... anywhere.
ReplyDeleteIf it weren't for the distinct possibility that since the Eurozone members are trapped with the Euro and therefore literally cannot print like Japan is doing, then they have one of two choices... they default outright, ala Spain (13 times in the past 400 years) - OR - the central banks just keep doing what they're doing and prevent a default even at the cost of 100% total anhilation of the global currencies. In the case of the latter, Walayat is correct. History says he won't be correct for long. I think the fact though is that in reality it is still possible that the central banks will counter absolutely any emergency with just more printing. IOW, I think it is entirely possible that they will continue to be just as insane in the future as they were last week, and literally print forever if they can. But how in hell can they print if they don't have something to buy? They can't just print for no reason... they need to purchase bonds with those printed dollars. The USA is borrowing way beyond their means as it is. How could it possibly take on or demand enough additional debt to cover a bailout of Europe as well as trying to run its own show without the people marching on Washington? I mean the the bankers have literally gone absolutely stark raving nuts.
Haha... I also read that piece by Mr. Walayat last week when I got a knee mail from Market Oracle. I read his 'very bullish' opinion back in 2010 or 11 and I thought he was nuts. It turned out of course that he was right, but the only reason he was right was because he got lucky and nobody has defaulted yet. He was still nuts. Correct but nuts for even making the call. He's still nuts, but I do enjoy reading his stuff. He's still nuts though.
ReplyDeleteAs my 'proper' Aussie wife sometimes reminds me of the old Aussie joke-
ReplyDelete"Where do englishmen hide their money? - under the soap!' Ha flamin ha.
I'm not quite sure what AR has in mind, but I'd be keepin ya back to the wall if I was you CR.
Looks like EURUSD taking off for 5th wave now, targetting 1.37+
ReplyDeleteAUD & GBP have been utterly pathetic.
Haha... I guess next time I send out the invitations I'm going to have to put the words "gentlemen excluded in bold. That way there wouldn't be any confusion as Aussies sometimes don't read the fine print, lol. No worries bro in my world opposites still attract.
ReplyDeleteThat's OK , I'm a Welshman.
ReplyDeleteWhen you said 'no gentlemen' I thought you meant 'only rogues & scoundrels'
Well yes, rogues & scoundrels are welcome... as long as they have the rules straight. And that's not a problem since they usually show up with a lady on each arm. Good times had by all.
ReplyDeleteThis might serve as a partial explanation. http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/ecbs_shrinking_balance_sheet/
ReplyDeleteThere's no question in my mind that that is almost assuredly the 'full' explanation HR.
ReplyDeleteBy the way Greg (and others), it looks like HR is probably a subscriber to Tom McClellan's "Free Chart in Focus" email service. So am I. It's free and I'd recommend you sign up for it. There is no other nonsense attached to it... no sales pitches from McClellan, no advertising junk mails, nothing like that. I don't necessarily always agree with Tom's assessment but I certainly respect them. I've also seen him on TV several times and have had the pleasure of talking with him on the phone. He's a real nice guy, a bit more animated and fun on the phone than he is on TV where he remains politically correct. But he's certainly got his opinions on the Fed and their activity just like the rest of us do. In any case, his charts in focus are often quite enlightening because he often looks at areas where the rest of us don't.
1520 was my next buy level for scaling in more SH, so I dood it. If it hits 1560 (which is real close to 1.618 X my proposed A wave that started in November) I'll likely add more. Maybe more at 1540, if it gets there. Not expecting it to reach either of those levels, but I'm ready to scale in more if it does.
ReplyDeleteI trouble just getting through Walayat's piece.
ReplyDelete> there HAS BEEN NO DEBT DELEVERAGING, TOTAL DEBT IN FACT CONTINUES TO> EXPAND as central banks MONETIZE GOVERNMENT DEBT and in some cases
> EXPOENENTIALLY. [sic]
So, by his logic, if I take the moldy food out of the fridge and put it in the wastebin under the sink, the total volume of food in the kitchen has not decreased, right? In fact, since mold grows more quickly in warmer temperatures, is it not reasonable to say that the total volume is actually expanding?
The food is rotten.
Right. It's like Mr. Walayat considers the moldy food [bonds] as being perfectly healthy stuff to purchase.
ReplyDeleteHis logic seems to be that "since there has been no debt deleveraging there can never be any debt deleveraging".
Personally I find it hard to imagine that the charade that began with the congressional clown show of New Year's Eve hasn't just about run its course. Although we definitely 'have' seen a unrelenting melt-up like this before, it was at the 'beginning' of the rebound off the March 2009 lows, not at the top of a 5 wave pattern like it is now. I'd say this puppy is about to roll over with a vengeance at any moment.
ReplyDeletePersonally I find it hard to imagine that the charade that began with the congressional clown show of New Year's Eve hasn't just about run its course. Although we definitely 'have' seen unrelenting melt-ups like this before, it was at the 'beginning' of the rebound off the March 2009 lows, not at the top of a 5 wave pattern like it is now. Mind you back in 1999-2000 we saw this same kind of nonsense with the tech bubble. It was truly a different world back then though compared to the crisis of today. I'd say this puppy is about to roll over with a vengeance at any moment.
ReplyDeleteso finally AUD gathers some upside speed-looks like it wants to complete [2[ in a couple of days.
ReplyDeletewatch this triangle on EURAUD for clues too
http://screencast.com/t/c7VNU4gE
Thanks HR! That is one awesome chart. Very strong correlations in the markets with the balance sheet of FED+ECB. And now we have a negative divergence ... sure looks like the end is nigh. Because people are acting like the central banks are there forever to buy assets from them (the greater fool), but it looks like the balance sheets have been contracting in spite of what the central banks say.
ReplyDeleteLots of that "logic" going around ... pathetic stuff.
ReplyDeleteNicely stated. And maybe it's that denial and declining social mood just under the surface that makes such flimsy reasons get so grasped at by the herd and treated as truthisms. Like the sound bite quoted above -- since there hasn't been debt deleveraging, there won't be.
ReplyDeleteTruthism is a great word for it. Sort of a cousin to truthiness, but with more gravitas!
ReplyDeleteAlthough, the date of the links might be a tip-off that our focus on the topic renders us part of our own little herd, looking backward to the realizations of the past instead of forward to the seeds of the next realization. Which is not to say reviewing history is an indictment, only that its employment deserves the cautionary admission of human fallibility.
Flimsy reasons and declining market breadth characteristic of expiring waves have such a nice fit to one another. I definitely feel some truthiness to that pairing!
Share with us why you picked 65 AR?
ReplyDeleteFor the "musings of Capt.Obvious" file:
The spread between current price and the 10moMA is certainly extreme, but it has also both maintained an extreme state for months as well as preceded what amounts to a sharp, super-short-lived market correction that set the stage for truly goofy upside surges. "Blow-off yet to come" warning anyone? And if I wanted to make a permabull case, I'd redraw the chart in semilog scale!
What scares my poor-little-overly-hibernated permabear bones is how relatively innocuous the 10/65 spread currently is; although its dampening over the last two major upside moves and widening over the last two major downside moves may very well be a bigger take-away.
MAs have never spoken to me like patterns, but I definitely take notice when you throw them out there AR--especially in an as boiled down, uncomplicated presentation as this one!
Oh yes. I agree with you totally Zimmer. This spread between those MAs is gigantic and certainly not a pair I would use for any guidance, especially on a monthly chart. It's just a remnant of Bulltart's charts that became quite popular over at the noisy place. He was using the 10 and the 80. I simply refined the 80 down to a 65 because it was the smallest moving average that still fit Bulltart's arguments and didn't upset his theory. My logic as that if a shorter MA would work just as well, why in the world use a bigger one?
ReplyDeleteThere was a time when Bulltart's contention was that if the 10 week MA dropped below the 80 it would more or less signify "the big one" had begun. I had a calculator that could calculate at what price that crossover would happen and indeed it can predict whether or not it even 'will' happen at all. But it's only good for "the next candle" and no further. Because in order for the calculator to provide a deadly accurate result, I have to input deadly accurate values for the "current price", among other things. And since I don't know what price the current monthly candle is going to end at, I can only feed in the current data. Once a monthly candle is in the books, it can then figure out at what price it would take for the MAs to cross 'next month'.
So that's it in a nutshell. The chart I provided was just a fairly clean chart I had in the library that was presentable enough to make my point above. That was a great question Zimmer and I appreciate it because you're absolute correct that it's a rather weird mix.
The reason I didn't use a log scale though is that log scale charts are really meant to deal with "huge increases or decreases in price", not "huge changes in time". Since there basically is very little difference between the value of the 3 peaks on the chart (relative to each other) and the 2 valleys on the chart (relative to each other) there is actually no need for a log scale. In fact it would turn out not revealing any greater information than the linear chart I used did. If there was a huge price swing and I wanted to display the difference between the two, I'd use a log scale regardless of how much time was involved. But in this case since we're comparing 3 peaks and 2 valleys that are almost all at the same levels (like the 3 peaks are at the same level and the 2 valleys are at the same level) I wasn't concerned about the effect of log or arithmetic. The two charts below show what I mean. It didn't make much difference in this case.
Gotcha on the 65--thx!
ReplyDeleteMy semilog reference was intended to be specifically relative to the MAs. Semilog dampens the spread at the high end of the price range, presenting it as less extreme relative to previous price action. That's all I intended by it.
The larger arithmetic v semilog debate is fascinating to me though. I tend to prefer/default to semilog even on short timeframes, but admittedly don't pay as much attention to arithmetic charts as is warranted (just as--watch me hurriedly point out--linear scale proponents probably leave some info on the table by not paying more attention to SL ones :).
You've touched on several of the issues of contention, I think. Perhaps it's an issue no more complicated than the question of whether to use a tape measure or a yardstick. As a blanket and anecdotally subjective generalization, arithmetic scale has tended to be more favored by bullish analysts in recent years and semilog scale by bearish ones. So the scale observation as it pertains to the MA spreads tickled me from a contrarian point of view there.
On the topic, something I've noticed from an EW history perspective:
RN was essentially a proponent of "use arithmetic scale unless you've got blatantly compelling evidence not to" and orthodox disciples of EWP seem to utilize semilog much more readily. Even niche trends within specialized schools of TA are revealing of backward looking judgments--we're all part of that damned herd, dammit!
Thanks for the detailed response AR--hope the Tuesday night has treated you well!
"My semilog reference was intended to be specifically relative to the
ReplyDeleteMAs. Semilog dampens the spread at the high end of the price range,
presenting it as less extreme relative to previous price action. That's
all I intended by it."
Ahhh. I see what you were getting at. You're right... a semi-log or log scale would indeed dampen the spread 'between the MAs' up at the high end. I did misunderstand your question. Tanks for the clarification.
What I've noticed is that there are a lot of investors or 'analysts' who automatically use a log scale for any chart larger than daily. They're under the impression that "a long duration of time" automatically dictates the need for a log scale, which is not the case at all. The only thing a log scale changes from a numerical difference to a percentage difference is the price action. The 'x' axis isn't altered at all. So unless a chart shows a price change that is at least doubled or tripled from the low to the high, I can't see any reason for a log scale chart. So generally speaking I use arithmetic almost all the time.
I don't know if you saw my charts on the Baltic Dry Index. In that case I put both of them up for display in order to show the incredible difference in patterns that a 94% drop in 6 months can produce. I'm getting too drowsy tonight to go find 'em and post links. But you can see both of 'em on that article which you could see here:
http://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.ca/2012/01/bdi-big-drop-indeed.html
Left click on either of the charts and then you can toggle between the two of them. What a difference a log scale chart made in that case. 94% decline can do that, lol.
ReplyDeleteHere we are. The logical conclusion of modern monetary policy:
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/02/10/business/japans-economic-minister-wants-nikkei-to-surge-17-to-13000-by-march/#.URuoOqU4ugw
It seems that even Japan's economic minister himself doesn't "get it". If the Nikkei rises 17% as a result of his policy to crash the Yen by 20%, the net result is that the Nikkei has in fact fallen. You know that, I know that, the Japanese people know that. So it really begs the questions "who does he think he's benefiting? Who does he think he's fooling? What the hell is wrong with his head?" The policy is of course identical to Bernanke's, in that Bernanke openly stated that one of the 'benefits' of quantitative easing, indeed one of his objectives, was to jack up the stock markets so that the people would be fooled into thinking they were somehow wealthier and would be inspired to spend. Seriously, they treat the general populace like they were a nation of 8 year olds. In fact last night when I was listening to Obama, I thought surely he was talking to a classroom of second grade students. But then the camera switched to the audience and much to my surprise the room was filled with adults. I couldn't figure it out. I thought there must have been some sort of mix up and they were accidentally showing the audience from some other occasion, some other venue. Because Obama was definitely talking baby talk. And the room apparently was full of adults. I 'still' can't figure that out.
ReplyDeleteHaha...Power ties and power lies
ReplyDeleteWhat we have all learned that Washington hasn't... increased defense spending results in longer, bloodier, costlier, and often losing wars; increased education spending results in ignorance spreadng and test scores plummeting; increased spending on healthcare has no correlation with mortality rates and probably increases morbidity rates; institutions that grow too big threaten the survival of everyone;
Great chart
ReplyDeleteHitting the bottom trendline now
Isn't that that the truth. When was the last time a government spent a dime that was productive? Stop giving it to the banks and start loaning it to private business people... that's the only way nations make progress. Let the bright people in the private sector lead the way, not the blind dumbass gamblers who play with the American people's money that Daddy Bernanke hands over to them like spoiled brats crying for candy. Every time I see Dimon that's exactly what I think of... a spoiled brat who needs a spanking of biblical proportions. Like a 60 years in the slammer type of spanking.
ReplyDeleteIt's getting to the point where I think StockCharts is becoming pretty darned attractive as a short. They hiked prices recently and service is declining. Too damned many service disruptions, to the point where they're becoming so unreliable that I would no longer recommend them. What other charting services are out there that are not attached to a trading platform?
ReplyDeleteThis simply can't be real. In Japan, Abe is so desperate to ignite inflation that he has ordered a 20% cut in all refining output. He is literally slashing supply in order to drive prices up. If I were a Japanese citizen who had loaned my money to the government by purchasing their bonds I'd be livid... at least for the actions he is taking, for what it is that he's 'trying' to do. He's trying to screw every holder of Japanese debt. But as ZH points out the Japanese bond market isn't tanking as it should be. Which goes to show that the bond market is pretty confident that no matter what Abe tries, deflation is going to happen. The currency market says otherwise with the Yen losing 18% since October and still falling. Both can't be right.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-13/japan-reflation-deathwish-leads-20-refinery-capacity-cut
I use TC2000.
ReplyDeleteThere are some things stockcharts definitely does better, but I'm pretty satisfied with it. Mostly because it has most of the major forex pairs which stockcharts did not. There programming language isn't the best, but for what you pay it's not too bad. They've got some online forums where I was able to cobble together some custom indicators.
Thanks Greener. I see they use Silverlight. I've read that Silverlight is spyware as much as anything else. Is that true?
ReplyDeleteI don't have any problem with it, nor does my anti-virus & anti-spyware. It's my understanding that it's similar to flash and java, which I know have had some controversy also.
ReplyDeleteI suppose once you get on the internet at all you're giving out too much information.
Another thing is their mobile app. It saves your chart with indicators and moving averages and they show up on your phone. True mobile trading.
Thanks for the input Greenieface, much appreciated.
ReplyDeleteHey AR,
ReplyDeleteYou'd surmised that the Fed was giving interest payments to EU banks to keep them afloat, and Pains, Gains, and Capital mentions that as well. QE2 and QE4 were "EU bailouts in disquise." In their email today they mentioned that the EU banking system is as close to hitting the fan as the US banks were in May of 2008. The housing crisis in Spain is 6X worse than the US crisis because housing prices have gone up that much more. Spanish banks are like black holes because of all these mortgages going bad, and they lie until they die. And oh, by the way, they were unregulated til 2010. And just like in May 2008 when all the banking leaders said all was fine, all the EU heads have been saying that also in November. A big bank (Bankia) just got partly nationalized in Spain -- shares halted trading last month. Nothing has been fixed in Europe.
I suspect that we should watch the EURUSD very closely. It has a valid big 1-2 completed ...
Interesting ... they think cutting supply is a sustainable way to higher prices? This sure is a bizarre world right now.
ReplyDeleteAs if they are dealing with any of the root causes of the deflation they are dealing with.
And the Japanese bond market should be tanking, you're right.
Maybe since it's 90% owned by Japanese citizens and institutions, it isn't traded much?
Hey AR, I put a reference up above in response to this thread here on the Fed bailing out the EU banks ... Pains, Gains, and Capital agrees that QE2 and QE4 were EU bailouts in disguise, and the Fed is worried the EU banking system is on the ropes. They mention that in 2008 the big US banks were 30:1 leveraged. The entire EU banking system is leveraged 26:1, and the Spanish housing crisis is 6x worse that the US one was bc the prices have gone up 6x what the US prices went up. One Spanish bank has gone belly up and stopped trading in January (Bankia). The EU banking system is as close to going under as the investment banks were in May 2008.
ReplyDeleteWe better keep a close eye on EURUSD ...
Did you see that chart somebody posted a link to here the other day ... showing the markets correlated with the size of the European + US central bank balance sheet? And that balance has NOT increased the past year, and we have a negative divergence for many months. So that chart also suggests a turn is imminent.
ReplyDeleteI thought the song was "Nearer My God to Thee" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pj-1b1Yvep8
ReplyDeleteYes sir, I couldn't agree with you more Greg. The basket that makes up the US Dollar Index is comprised of the following weightings:
ReplyDeleteEuro - 57.6% Yen - 3.6% Pound - 11.9% Canadian dollar - 9.1%Swedish Krona - 4.2% Swiss Franc - 3.6%
The funny thing about the Index is that if the average Joe on the street was told "The US Dollar Index is made up of 6 foreign currencies" and then was asked "So how many different countries are in the Index?", he'd answer 6. And of course the answer is 22. So it's not surprising I guess that the Euro has such a heavy weighting since it represents so many countries (trapped countries because they can't print, they can only default). But the fact that it does is really going to come screaming to the forefront pretty soon I think.
You're absolutely right bro... if the Euro is on the verge of collapse then the US dollar is on the verge of skyrocketing. 100% guaranteed that with the first sign of a crack in the Euro the dollar will have hit bottom. And maybe you're talking about that crack right now? I assume you're referring to the Euro as having completed a 1-2 is on this scale? Euro 60 min.
Yes I did. That was HighRev (link is below). The European balance sheet is actually shrinking. That's deflationary. Just a matter of time, and not much more time I wouldn't think.
ReplyDeleteWow ... I didn't know the Euro is 57.6% ... yikes.
ReplyDeleteIs that the daily? I think on that level we might have a i-ii-iii-iv in of a small degree. Or maybe your i-ii, (i)-(ii)
Here is a very rough count on the weekly of a big 1-2. I think Greenface said we had a valid double zigzaggie in since August, and I don't know the bigger count ... DK had one up a while ago that I archived, but too tired to go look tonight.
So we could be close to a big (hairy) crack in the euro. And maybe the spanish yields if they were to start spiking, that could be an early warning sign.
OMG, you got me laughing so hard here bud. You said your eyelids are droopy. You also asked if my chart was the daily? What does the link say? Not making fun of you pardner, just pointing out that you might be even a bit more tired than you realize, lol.
ReplyDeleteI was questioning myself when I assumed you were referring to the smaller degree that I've shown because you said the Euro had put in a big 1-2. The one I showed isn't very big. So I wasn't seeing the big one you were referring to until you posted that weekly chart above. So thanks for that one Greg. Yeah, maybe that piggy is about to head south. I'm thinking that the 1-2 I showed on the 60 min. chart 'could possibly' represent the very start of it. Not sure of course but it's possible we're right there.
I concur. That is the greatest beer commercial of all time.
ReplyDeleteRegarding DK's EurAud count below - the triangle was busted. It was a beautiful setup.
Perfect, but alas too perfect. I think it was like 4, 5, 6 years ago when everyone was talking about how head & shoulders don't work anymore. They get faded more often than not, so they are no longer valid. Now it seems H&S are working again and its the triangle that don't work. I see kore obvious blatant triangles that you're sure are going to work out but then just get blown out of the water.
Such is the business of trading. I still think the Euro is finding a tradeable bottom around here short term at least.
Haha, yeah that commercial is just so raunchy. So saucy.
ReplyDeleteLast night I started to take a real close look at the Euro, which I haven't done in a long time. Shame on me. But it's gotten to the point where I think the next and most reliable signals for market direction will probably come from that currency. So I gave it a whirl last night and came up with what I think might be going on.
Then, this morning I was going through my library at StockCharts thinking "Surely I've done this before. Where are those charts"? Lo and behold, there they were. And the most amazing thing to me is that I had put annotations on the weekly chart of the Euro a full 10 months ago and they were identical to what I came up with last night. So 10 months ago I laid out a path I thought the Euro would take, and now, 10 months later, it has panned out nearly identical to what I was thinking back then, and to what I was thinking last night. You can see that yellow highlight circle on the MACD histogram in the picture below. That marks the last time I looked at that chart. When I clean up the chart of course I'll move that over or delete it, but I just wanted to show you what I was thinking 10 months ago, especially since it's the same conclusion I came up with last night before I even found this chart. That kind of impresses me that maybe I'm on the right track. And of course... maybe not :-)
So without even altering the annotations that I had put on that chart 10 months ago I'll show it to you. The picture below will retain those old annotations forever. But once you've seen this link I'll alter them and clean that chart up. To me it looks like the Euro wants to head lower fairly soon. The daily chart shows a clear 3-wave pattern upward off the low of last July that could easily be finished. But who knows for sure? The fact that the 'a' leg and the 'c' leg are nearly identical in size is interesting because unless we're looking at a nested 1-2, 1-2 getting underway (to the upside), it has probably been a corrective wave upward. All that action can be seen on the weekly chart so I won't include a daily for now. BUT... the 60 minute chart that I posted below for Greg also suggests to me that the Euro "could be" about to break lower.
I don't pretend to know GF... wish I did. But although I can certainly recognize that the Euro has been on a tear for nearly a year now, I'd say the charts are not ruling out a top here. Let's watch this currency much closer from now on... it would be to our benefit for sure if we can nail a turn in that one.
At 12:30 eastern I just want to go on record as saying that I fully expect the thieves to take the market down at any time now and grab up all that nice juicy free insurance money down there just beneath 149 on SPY. Not to mention that they've no doubt got a boatload of incredibly cheap puts options of their own. For that reason, so do I. Only my boat is probably a bit smaller than theirs. For now, lol.
ReplyDeleteI certainly don't expect it to happen, but I can imagine scenarios where your bullish view pans out. If Mar 2009 was THE bottom then there is the possibility of nested 1-2s since then. We would have to accelerate higher from here in the heart of the third wave, probably hitting higher levels then your target if all the fib ratios and such work out.
ReplyDeleteThe longer we go without overtaking the previous two peaks on the monthly chart, the less likely this is the big third wave up IMHO. Plus I favor your chart for the Euro. I think the highs are behind us and it's headed down below parity at least.
Yup, that insanely bullish count is based on a great big nest of 1s and 2s. That would put us in the early middle stages of 3 of 3 of 3 up.
ReplyDeleteI'm glad to hear you favor my count on the Euro because I had interpreted your comment above to favor a continued rising trend for that currency. I'm leaning toward a top already being in for that one. Not a sure thing of course but that's the way I'm interpreting it right now. Need some confirmation.
Beautiful chart ... The Euro is just as much of a hell haven as the yen (the opposite of a safe haven).
ReplyDeleteAnd today it had a nice nother wave down (think it was the slowing GDP announcements from some Euro members ... contracting). But the bankrupt banks lurking below the surface are enough story to make that C leg you've drawn heading down to 1.000 seem mighty possible from 1.37. Thanks again.
Today seemed to confirm that we might be right there indeed ... if that was five wavers down, then three more up and we'll be in business for 400 pips or so to get the party started. Happy Valentines Day to us all! And happy new year also.
ReplyDeleteP.S. Soros made 1 billion dollars shorting the yen. Yow, I mean Wow.
Thanks Greg. That was a 10 month old opinion. I've cleaned it up a bit and re-labeled it. The pattern I've drawn is very speculative but it still represents the 'general' type of decline I think is likely. It probably won't end until 2016ish, maybe later.
ReplyDeleteI just don't think there's any way the Euro won't come completely unglued. Here's what I'm thinking happens with that thing. It tanks igniting horrible inflation in Europe. The USD soars causing deflation in the US. European bonds? I think they tank as well because interest rates would 'have to' rise one way or the other in order to try to combat inflation over there. Either a default occurs causing the Eurobonds to collapse or Euro bond holders dump them due to a crumbling currency and crumbling returns in real terms due to the inflation. Either way, I think the Eurodollar and European bonds are at or very near the end of their rope.
Euro Monthly
Euro Weekly
I was only looking for a bottom on the 60 min chart.
ReplyDeleteThere are five waves down off the Wed top.
I'm a long term thinker, but a short term trader at the moment.
Imma post a chart. Won't bore you with the explanatory. Not saying for sure it'll get all the way to 1563. There are too many things suggesting the mood is already risk off. But it's still a good target when you do the math and thinking and stuff.
ReplyDeletehttp://i.imgur.com/UdBOvVA.jpg
Yup, the mood is so complacent regarding equities when other signals are warning to get the hell out of Dodge that I find it to be a total mystery. Of course there's no mystery about why the market just continues to grind higher when the Fed is supplying the fuel on an ongoing basis for that to happen, but I still find it hard to comprehend how people can be so relaxed about it. For example, the VIX is so low that for all intents and purposes, there almost is no options market right now.
ReplyDeleteConsider the guy who has 1000 shares of Monsanto at $102 per share. He wants to earn a little extra income so he considers selling 10 covered calls for March expiry. If he sells the $105 calls he would get $1.08 for them or $108 per contract for a total of $1,080. $1,080 income out of $102,000 worth of stock. That represents 1% return for a month of waiting for those options to expire worthless in the hands of someone else. It also limits his upside to $105 per share of Monsanto stock.
But what if he's uncomfortable limiting the upside of his stock to $105 and getting relatively small premium for doing that? He looks at the next strike higher which is the $110 call. Lo and behold, he'd get a whopping 19 cents premium for selling that one. $19 per contract or $190 total premium income. Not worth it. So he has limited choices for premium revenue.
On the other hand, what if he wants to protect his holding of 1000 shares of Monsanto by buying 10 puts? He could purchase the $105 puts, which are already $2 in-the-money for $3.05. Therefore the time component is only $1.05 per share or $105 per contract for a total of $1050 out of pocket expense to cover his entire batch of 1000 shares. What that amounts to is incredibly cheap insurance. A person would be nuts not to put that insurance in place.
The logical thing to do would be to sell those covered calls at the strike of $105, take in the $1080 premium, spend that premium on put options costing $1050 for the time component and go fishing.
My point here is that there is basically no money to be made by selling covered calls. Selling naked calls wouldn't necessarily be all that risky either barring an explosive move higher, which isn't likely to happen at this stage. But the premium available is near zero. So who wants to write calls? And then on the flipside, to sell puts would be exceedingly risky because the potential downside is immense although apparently the odds of any downside happening in the markets is near zero. I call BS on that one. So the only thing that makes any sense to me at all is to buy puts cheaper than almost at any time in history. And nobody is doing it except Goldman Sachs and me, lol.
G'day folks. Just wanted to show you the most impressive candlevolume
ReplyDeleteevent I've ever seen. Not that it is of any value other than to show
that somebody dumped SPY in a volume not seen in any 10 minute period
I've ever seen. I'm sure there have been more impressive dumps than
this but I've never seen it on a candlevolume chart. Here's the 3
minute and the 10 minute, for your amusement. Have a great weekend.
Doesn't even look real.
ReplyDeleteSomewhat related -- My big curiosity about things right now is where the algo key support levels are (and to a lesser degree, how they figure and set them). I guess we'll know when we get there. The millisecond we get there.
USDJPY:
ReplyDeleteYes, I know ... there's a fine line between an obsession and a passion (would he quit it with the yen already?)
Anyhoo, I think the extended fifth wave is still one valid count (along with maybe three others up here in the nose bleed section). But the potential is big pips so should not be ignored as a possibility. The target would be 1.618 x Waves 1-3 which would get us to 106. We could be finishing up ii of the Extended 5th wave of Minor 3.
Q. Why dost thou thinkth we have more upside when we already had a completed 5-waver that could have been the end of minor 3?
A. Cause of the speedth and the volumeth of this waveth was faster than iii of 3. AND i poked above the channel ... and this has been a channel-obeying beast for four months. We already had one extended wave back in the fifth wave of 1. Anyway, those Japanese are an anal bunch, donchyaknow.
And it found support near (iv) of prior i wave.
And it found support on the 4-hourly ichimoku cloud for the third time on this run up.
And G-20 will amount to nothing but an opportunity to steal stops leading up to it.
And this is acting a bit like the USDJPY did in 1994-1997. Anybody done any research on the Asian financial crisis?
Another irregular flat (with b higher than start of a)?
4 hour to follow ...
4hourly
ReplyDeleteWow!
ReplyDeleteI read that Buffet and Soros were bigtime sellers of stocks, consumer discretionary ones and banks. So they are seeing what we are seeing. Me thinks.
I think it just goes to show that there are many just ready to dump. It could be a waterfall effect if it were to gain momentum, but right now the FED is buying it all back. My TZA has terribly disappointed me, but I'm more inclined to hold on for now.
ReplyDeletegreg, where did you read that?
ReplyDeleteRead what?
ReplyDeleteOh ... Soros and Buffet? It was on an email my research dept (a friend) sent me. An interview of a doomer I forgot his name ... dated Feb 6th. Soros was dumping JPM. But it was a doomer that I've seen a video of him months ago. So I didn't verify what time frame he was talking about. Probably needs verified.
I like the scenarios you paint. A very probably path you've described. And predicting future scenarios is a rare talent. Sorry it takes me awhile to respond .. can't get to your fine establishment from work.
ReplyDeleteOnce I said sarcastically at work as an actuary, "I can't imagine what could go wrong with this project that the big boss wants us to do." And my colleague responded, "then you don't have an active enough imagination!"
Can you imagine how hard it will be to sell Eurobonds to anyone not in Europe? The default risk is already high. Then, as you aptly said, you add currency risk in there as it's dropping 3% a week! How much does shit sell for anyway? Good heavens, can you even imagine a worse investment (and you even do have an active imagination)? Sort of like what sane non-Japanese person would EVER buy a Japanese bond (after the currency dropped 20% in 3 months and is just getting started)?
Let me see, I'll get 1% or 2% interest in a year. Plus an estimated -30% for currency depreciation. Plus an estimated -20% for expected mark down for debt restructuring. Hmm, an estimated -49% (+/- 10%) return if I'm lucky. Run, do not walk to the nearest Japanese bond dealer!
So who is Europe going to sell bonds to? Who will Japan sell bonds to?
Hopefully not the FED! Yikes.
Thanks for the explanation ... I never delved into options before, so you made it make sense!
ReplyDeleteSometimes I think the JPM's of the world supress VIX so that they can make a fortune when they tank the markets later.
Just watched the beer commercial, nice!
ReplyDelete"So who is Europe going to sell bonds to? Hopefully not the FED! Yikes."
ReplyDeleteI think that's already been going on for quite some time, one way or the other, whether the Fed admits it or not. But they've been funding European banks and those banks are unquestionably helping support the bond market over there. So if it starts to come unraveled I think the Fed is 'already' probably at their limit.
Wow. Yes, that fits also. Only the European banks would buy the bonds, because what's the difference, if they don't the system implodes, so they might as well buy them and hope for the best. And as I've learned from you, the Fed IS helping the European banks so the system doesn't implode.
ReplyDelete"The Fed is probably at their limit." You are probably right about that too. What are they gonna do when Spanish yields start spiking? I'm getting more and more excited about shorting that EURUSD. My spidey sense is starting to tingle, and only the USDJPY has spoken to my spidey sense in many months.
Hey, by the way, I dropped in to troll-central after a month hiatus (you were right, it's been wonderful to have quit -- thank you again for this oasis), and invited two peeps over here to your pub. Sinuhet and Sukimoto -- both high quality individuals. Hope you don't mind. They both said they've been here already ... so I'm sure you already know of them.
ReplyDeleteHave a nice weekend buddy.
Anybody have any thoughts on the Asian Currency Crisis of 1997? I'm wondering why the yen went into free-fall then. I wasn't paying attention in 1997. That was 6 years before I started on this journey. Anyway, that's this weekend's homework, so I'll let you know what I learn.
ReplyDeletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Asian_financial_crisis
ReplyDeleteWow. Wow.
Just some highlights from a first read to pique your curiosity -- I'm going to give it another read in the morning:
It all started out with hot money flowing to these Asian developing countries. Sorta like China today. It created bubbles in real estate. Some warned that sustainable economies can't be built on capital flow alone. When the asset bubbles popped in real estate, it created many defaults and a banking crisis. Then in a matter of months, the crisis spread world wide. Currencies got decimated by 30% to 80% as capital flowed out of the scary regions ... they compared it to a run on banks, only it was a run countries' currencies. At first, the affected countries all tried to defend the collapse of their currencies by spending money trying to counterbalance the massive dumping that was going on by the foreigners getting out of dodge. It became impossible to stem the tide, so they gave up their peg to the dollar.
A major contributing factor was that these countries had heavy debt loads denominated in foreign currencies and negative trading balances. So when their currencies plummeted, because of the other currency denominated loans, countries were bankrupted very quickly. Defaults all over the place. Businesses closed, job losses, and poverty for millions. Policy decisions had no effective solutions to the crisis, and were always a step behind. For example, IMF recommended high interest rates like 40% to 60% to defend their currencies (and that didn't work).
Sound familiar, eh? Japan has huge debt loads, and Europe. Japan has a negative trade balance. Money flowed into Japan, and is flowing out now (the currency is down 20% already).
Although a BIG difference now is that countries have spent money on the front end weakening their currency (China) try to have weak currencies for exports, and they have reserves to defend their currencies. Also Japan is now actively weakening their currency (instead of trying to defend it's collapse). And loans maybe are in their own currencies this time (a priviledge of the developed countries) -- that should remove one factor that accelerated the death spiral. So these things differ. Which apparently was a haelp in leading to a huge demand for US bonds in 2000's as they built these war chests. All this currency weakening has made a bubble in US bonds apparently. The Euro now is perched on the edge of the abyss. Now it's the developed countries that have issues (Europe and Japan). So, no two crises are the same, but they might rhyme. Like the 1997 crisis and the looming one probably will have collapsing currencies in common. But with Japan weakening theirs on purpose, this could become unstable as the speculators could drive this thing into a free fall, and the BOJ could lose control of their controlled destruction of the yen.
This makes me more confident that the stresses we're seeing in the currency markets are the early warning sign to be listened to ... not the weird calm in the equity markets. And in 2008 it was the LIBOR rate which was the canary. But in 1997 it was currencies with the signal. And interestingly, the yen started getting trashed in 1994 -- 3 years before "the crisis."
The yen is being roundly trashed today. There are reasons for that (debt and negative trade balances and certain future default). The stated reasons are not the full story -- "printing". Did they print 20% of the total amount of yens in three months to devalue it by 20%? I think not. And those currency charts from 1994 to 1997 just spiked massively -- panic spike -- hard to find 5 waves in there. Here is the monthly chart of the yen going back to the early 1990's. This move we've had off the lows looks alot like the 1994 move leading up to the financial crisis of 1997, eh? Surely Japan has in place all the fundamentals for a currency trashing.
Cheers!
Thanks Greg. Yes, I know of both of them and would welcome them both with open arms. But I don't go over there trying to pick off the good ones because people know this site is here and I'd think that if they wanted to participate here they would have done so by now. I'm pleased that they may have been here but neither of them have ever left a comment.
ReplyDeleteYeah, in the past few days my focus has really started to swing over onto the Yuro. I think we're going to be getting more honest signals from that currency now that we know what Japan's decision is. The Eurozone countries don't have the luxury of that decision so I think that once the Yuro starts to crack it won't be "by decision" it will likely be "by force".
ReplyDeleteYes sir, the Yen took a hell of a dump between '95 and '98. Back then I was so busy with my kids' athletic careers that I wasn't paying much attention to it to be honest. Neither did I understand half as much about it as I do now. But the decline in the Yen in '95 started off just like the current decline did. I have to get to bed now Greg but I'll read your offering in the morning. So off to bed I go... I'll probably get up in a couple of hours and go home. lol
ReplyDeleteYes sir, the Yen took a hell of a dump between '95 and '98. Back then I was so busy with my kids' athletic careers that I wasn't paying much attention to it to be honest. Neither did I understand half as much about it as I do now. But the decline in the Yen in '95 started off just like the current decline did. I have to get to bed now Greg but I'll read your offering in the morning. So off to bed I go... I'll probably get up in a couple of hours and go home. lol
ReplyDeleteHere's a chart of the Yen Monthly that I posted somewhere around here earlier this week or last week.
Nothing would surprise me with this rigged market. But currencies are starting to sing a risk-off tune, eh? Some third waves seem imminent.
ReplyDeleteyeah guys, the music IS great! heehee
ReplyDeleteI'm doing an informal survey of myer's-briggs personality types and traders. if anyone knows their MB type, post it here if you would be so kind. i'm surveying those i twitter with also. so far the smallish results are interesting.
ReplyDeleteoh AR, i figured out why an old post shows up which leaves me ending up in not the most recent. sheesh, sometimes the small stuff escapes me.
ReplyDeleteI'm INFP, but the F and P are weak, so more like IN F/T P/J.
ReplyDeleteA friend of mine said he should be ESPN (he's a sports nut).
it's funny GF because i was long and saying to myself "THAT PATTERN IS WAY TOO OBVIOUS." everyone trading forex was watching it. but my intuition said it was gonna be a fakeout and it was.
ReplyDeletethere are different online tests, fairly similar to one another. you should try a few and see what comes up consistently. i am CURIOUS. (and thanx for the CUTE :) maybe your are a FLRT !) and it doesn't say you have 1% ability to think! LOL. do some research. tons of sites.
ReplyDeletei am an INFJ
Introvert(67%) iNtuitive(88%) Feeling(25%) Judging(22%)
hope we're all short when it cracks. thanks for the charts and commentary AR and Greggorio. much appreciated. keep focusing on that one :)
ReplyDeletei may be late to the party but i'm shorting it with a clean break of 10295. it's been bouncing around in this area for days now. tried to break 103 on friday the 15th but didn't do it with any conviction.
ReplyDeletei can see how you have T and J tendencies, but can also see the F and P part..
ReplyDeletethere were many bankers on board that ship who opposed the federal reserve. for their own reasons of course. and oddly JP Morgan cancelled his trip at the last minute. ok. tinfoil hat off.
ReplyDeletejust want to say.... holy heck you guys, i haven't landed here for a few days and there's TONS of GREAT POSTS from EVERYONE. should keep me busy. It's not the reading part that takes a long time, it's the digesting all of it piecemeal that takes time. that'll teach me to not to keep up.
ReplyDeleteHi Lugman. That was your first comment here so as usual we welcome you with a nice cold one... on the house. After that the drinks are usually free, especially if you sit at Papa Boule's table.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I definitely found the results to be accurate although I think I probably would have said that if the results had been different, because the descriptions under more than one category would probably describe most people who take the test. But thanks for contributing to Blue's survey. I'm finding it even more interesting as she gathers more results.
Twice when I was about 23 I was given a ridiculous traffic ticket by even more ridiculous cops. So I went to court both times to defend myself and both times the judge found me innocent and gave the cop shit. I don't take no shit from nobody, lol.
ReplyDeleteEDIT: Here's one of those incidents. I came to an intersection that had this sign. I turned left and naturally, just around the bend was a cop parked there handing out tickets like candy. I guess the lazy bastard thought that was his way of contributing to society while getting his quota at the same time. Not to mention contributing to the cops' social fund.
So in court I told the judge that that particular sign means "right turn is permitted". It doesn't even address the issue of a left turn, let alone say a left turn is "disallowed", so logically a left turn is permitted. The judge agreed that logically I was correct. So he threw it out.
hahaha. yeah, you DEFINITELY seem true to your type.!
ReplyDeleteanalytical, logical, creative and pragmatic. then there's what YOU quoted. LOL
Which no doubt is why when I get pulled over by the cops it never ends well, lol.
ReplyDeleteI think waiting for a breakout is a good way to go (wish I'd waited as well) -- make it prove correction is over ... and the G-20 agreement to let market decide currency exchange rates could make the USDJPY gap down when it opens tonight.
ReplyDeletethat's what I THOUGHT too. Seems contrarian to think of Yen as a safe haven currency, but it still is thought of in that regard, albeit diminishing.
ReplyDeletethink it's a save for usdjpy longs...see article i posted above.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-15/chart-day-dv01-time-bomb-beneath-worlds-equity-tranche
ReplyDeleteThis article from ZH shows total market cap along with total debt. And as a percentage, the market % is at an all time low. Showing what we knew, that debt is huge. Their point is that as interest rates rise, the debt will suck up the cash flow, and equities will turn out less profits, and they will then be seen as over valued.
Anyway, it's shocking how much total debt has increased since 2007 (and 1990) with stocks still not near their peak.
For example, since 2000, debt has increased from 72 to 150 TRILLION, and stock market has gone from 36 to 52 trillion. So debt has increased 78 trillion, and stocks, 16 trillion. A factor of 5.
yay for you! extremely logical!!!!
ReplyDeleteyep, if you go to court and present your case to a judge, you often get out of the ticket. i once got a speeding ticket and went to court with a video that nowhere on MY SIDE of the road (which was unfamiliar as i had just moved to the area) was there a speed limit sign. the closest sign in the direction i was travelling was several miles back, which said 60. however on the opposite side of the road (if i had been heading in the other direction) there WAS a sign a few miles further on which stated the speed limit on that section of the road was 40. So how was I to know that? anywhoo got out of that one and they eventually put a sign up about the speed reduction on BOTH sides of the road.
spoken like an INTJ. lol.
ReplyDeleteshould be interesting. was short on friday and got stopped out on the second little pop so decided to stand aside for now. i am sure whether i was short or long i somehow would have been on the wrong side!
ReplyDeleteI just read that at the G-20 meeting, Seven countries signed an agreement to let the market decide foreign exchange rates, not central banks targeting levels. So now we could have a gap down in USDJPY ... it was considered a reversal of opinion that Japan signed onto this.
ReplyDeletethis weeks usdjpy movers:
ReplyDeleteTuesday, February 19
The BoJ is to release monetary policy
meeting minutes, which contain important insights into economic
conditions from the Bank’s perspective.
Wednesday, February 20
Japan is to publish official data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.
The
U.S. is to release official data on building permits, a strong
indicator of future construction activity, as well as data on housing
starts. The U.S. is also to publish official data on producer prices,
while the Federal Reserve is to release the minutes of its most recent
policy meeting.
During a wave 4 perhaps when this wave 3 completes ... and hopefully NOT tonight at 5 pm when the market opens post G-20 meeting.
ReplyDeleteG20 Steps Back from Currency Brink. Heat off Japan.
ReplyDeletehttp://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/02/17/uk-g-idUKBRE91E03K20130217
okay time to pile in long again!!!
Who is Harrison J. Bounel? According to the 2009 tax return submitted by President Barack Obama, he’s the President of the United States.
ReplyDeleteThis is supposed to have been discussed by the supreme court last friday.
http://personalliberty.com/2013/02/15/president-harrison-j-bounel/
On another legal front, Obama defaulted in the case of Grinols et al v. Obama et al
on Jan. 30 when he failed to file a response within 21 days of being
served notice of the suit. This case also involves Obama’s phony SSN.
The suit states:
[I]nvestigator Albert Hendershot found in the database of http://www.acxiom.com/identity-solutions/acxiom-identity-batch-solutions/
the name of the individual whose Social Security Obama is using.
Acxciom-batch-solutions showed (Exhibit 1) that Harry J Bounel with the
same Social Security number xxx-xx-4425 at 5046 S Greenwood Ave in
Chicago, home address of Barack Obama, Database shows Bounel with the
same address and Social Security number as Barack Obama himself.
According to the databases last changes to the information on Harrison
(Harry) J Bounel were made in and around November 2009 by Michelle
Obama, who is listed as Bounel’s relative. Database changes can involve
entering the information or deletion of information. It appears that
changes made by relative Michelle Obama included deletion of
information, which was done at a time when Taitz brought to Federal
court in the Central District of California before Judge David O. Carter
a case of election challenge by her client, former U.S. ambassador Dr.
Alan Keyes and 40 state Representatives and high ranked members of the
U.S. military.
Recently obtained results of the 1940 census, Exhibit 2, provided the
last missing link, link (sic) between Harry J. Bounel and the date of
birth of 1890. Exhibit 2 shows the printout of the U.S. census, showing
Harry J Bounel, immigrant from Russia, residing at 915 Daly Ave, Bronx,
NY, age 50 during the 1940 census, meaning he was born in 1890, as
shown in the affidavit of Investigators Daniels and Sankey.
There is a pattern of Obstruction of Justice and tampering with the
official records and falsification/forgery of the official records
related to Obama. This happens in particular when [George W.] Bush
employees leave their positions and are replaced by Obama appointees.
The fact that Obama's nationality and real name have been even questioned at all, or were even the slightest bit suspect, in decades past would normally have been an automatic full dead-stop disqualifier for his running for any kind of office in the US. So why does this incredibly important legal issue hold absolutely no importance these days? Who knows, but you can bet your bottom dollar that there's something sinister behind it. It just can not be a good thing that this question is even up for discussion. What a twisted freakin' illusion this world is becoming, and of course all that is by design. No question about that.
ReplyDeleteLOL.
ReplyDeleteDid you mean Ignorant Napalm Throwing Jerk?
ReplyDeleteOr did you mean International Ninja Tournament Judge? You've got me all confused speaking in tongues like that.
they usually give me a warning. if i get a ticket i go to court and get out of it somehow.
ReplyDeletei know. i have been following this whole Obama fraud for awhile. just the fact that when asked about his birth certificate he just didn't pull out the real one (as an honest person would do) spoke volumes. Now there's Michele changing information. And how can he possibly file under another name? Seems he has many names. Somehow he will deflect yet again. Truly disturbing to me.
ReplyDeletenot to mention the mass coverup by the mainstream media. they don't want to get involved and look the other way, while covertly undermining anyone who seeks the truth on this matter. whatever happened to the woodwards and bernsteins of the world???
Twice when I was about 23 I was given a ridiculous traffic ticket by even more ridiculous cops. So I went to court both times to defend myself and both times the judge found me innocent and gave the cop shit. I don't take no shit from nobody, lol.
ReplyDeleteEDIT: Here's one of those incidents. I came to an intersection that had this sign. I turned left and naturally, just around the bend was a cop parked there handing out tickets like candy. I guess the lazy bastard thought that was his way of getting his quota and contributing to the police social fund.
So in court I told the judge that that particular sign means "right turn is permitted". It doesn't even address the issue of a left turn, let alone say a left turn is "disallowed", so logically a left turn is permitted. The judge agreed with that logically I was correct. So he threw it out.
The IN does seem to be a common thread with investors.
ReplyDeleteI do find you IN's more interesting than the IS folks I work with as actuaries -- the big picture doesn't seem to resonate with the group I work with ... trees not forests. But the S-types do have a good command of many details, that's for sure.
But it is amazing how accurately these 16 catagories describes the way people think and behave.
I hope that means it doesn't gap down!
ReplyDeleteThat would be a relief if we can just get on with the trashing of the yen.
These things can surely play with our minds!
ReplyDeleteWeird, this response took a day to get to my email. All Disqus responses seem delayed.
ReplyDeleteGlad you don't mind, and yes, I can see your point ... so I won't bother doing that anymore. Was thinking they might not be aware of your positive alternative, but they should be by now.
Good point ... yes, they can't print like Japan. What do you mean that we will get more honest signals from the EURO now that we know Japan's decision is to print?
ReplyDeleteBy force I think you mean it'll crack because people are dumping it, eh? I think that's where we're headed too.
@AR looks like you unleashed some FX beasts on your site. Love it! Update on positions. Still short GBP/USd (looks broken on even the weekly now long way down) still short aud/usd (not as weak as GBP but I will take what I can get). Looking to go long usd/cad (crude looks a little long in the tooth). Some success with yen pairs shorts. Still gotta see if yen can stage a bounce here.
ReplyDeleteYep, it takes awhile for the prior consensus opinion to die out ...
ReplyDeleteHey Newbfxtrader ... are also you anticipating a bounce in the GBP like DK? I'm wating for a 2 of some sort on that one ... and AUDUSD also at some point. I have a hunch usdjpy is done correcting ... but hard to say for sure.
ReplyDeleteI never followed this one ... truly bizarre and makes you seriously wonder what's going on.
ReplyDeleteIt's hard to figure out what the master plan of that design is ...
ReplyDeleteUSDJPY 30m
ReplyDeleteLooks like we have a completed 5 waver off the low last week ... I'm calling the low last week ii of an extended fifth wave, and this would be some degree (i) of iii. IF we have an extended fifth wave of course.
LOL. choose your shoe.
ReplyDeleteWTG on those!. and i like the way usdcad looks on the weekly for a long.
ReplyDeleteshorted audusd tonight on the break of last friday's low and went long audjpy. not sure about that one as it left an opening gap but target of 9740 first stop if it keeps going.
euro is looking like it wants to break this13255 support area....
ReplyDeleteaudcad looks highly shortable.
ReplyDeleteThat looked Greek to me at first glance ...
ReplyDeleteYes, thanks again for that, I breathed a sigh of relief before the open, and I'm glad they saved my longs. I'm thinking we have a completed five-waver now, and I got out. Have buys back at 93.4 to 93.55.
ReplyDeletelol. yes. kind of! i get obsessed sometimes....
ReplyDeletegreat minds think alike. i have 9350.... lol
ReplyDeleteEvenin all!
ReplyDeletehaven't had time to catch up with all recent posts here yet, but just want to post this first-
-I see AUD & GBP got even lower
GBPUSD still floundering
AUDUSD in Wave 2 now-about to start c leg ?
http://screencast.com/t/bdvlaaF3
I'm thinking AUDUSD due +100-150 pips upside
USDJPY maybe go to 96 ish
so AUDJPY could blast to the magic 100 before it all caves-in???
GBPUSD maybe finding a low here at 1.5437?
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/hs31uXsLPw
Ja, GF..pretty doesn't always win first prize these days.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update from the knight who never sleeps!
ReplyDeleteGlad to hear you still see a bounce ahead for those pairs (GBPUSD and AUDUSD) before a 3-like plunge... one for which I patiently await. I'll check out your counts when I get back from my day job.
I also have a next target of 96.4 on USDJPY -- 1.6 times the recent 5-waver from 92.2 to 94.2.
Thanks for sharing that one ... it looks text book ... thanks for making it make sense. Turning squiggles into counts, it's a beautiful thing.
ReplyDeleteThanks ... also Japan is going to name a new BOJ something or other. OF three choices, one is a printing fiend, one is a print-aholic, and one just likes to print. Either way we should get a iii up to 96.4, hee hee.
ReplyDeleteINTJ -
ReplyDeletebetter get back to all my pragmatic thinking, planning and rationalizing ;^)
The good book says:
ReplyDeleteThe race is not to the swift or the battle to the strong, nor does food come to the wise or wealth to the brilliant or favor to the learned; but time and chance happen to them all.
In the long run though as Taleb said: The lucky fool might have benefited from some luck in life; over the longer run he would slowly converge to the state of a less-lucky idiot
many thanks DK. i was short audusd with a stop and break even. then i saw your post so looks like i was right about that super tight stop! yes, audjpy i had a target of 9740 was long and got stopped out overnight as had a breakeven stop on that too. LOL. sunday nights kinda suck. i like your 100 target on that though! ty again!
ReplyDeleteLOL. ANOTHER one who is a rare type! I actually INTUITED that you were an INTJ! seriously I did.
ReplyDeleteso far ONE ESTJ who is borderline "I"....
love that GF !
ReplyDeleteGeez... it just 'dawned' on me... one minute it's DarkasKnight in this room, next thing you know it's Blueskies above. What an 'overcast' of characters.
ReplyDeleteThis is getting more interesting all the time. Although I thought I was probably an ENTP (because I don't really think I'm introverted, at least not in the way I understand the meaning of the word "introverted"), two different tests both say I'm INTP. The odds of that result apparently are relatively rare representing just 1-4% of the population. And yet Greenface's result is the same... relatively rare. I'm not surprised I suppose because Greener is really wacky, lol. But it's very interesting that there are so many trader-types who are showing similar characteristics. I'm hoping a lot more people will contribute to your study. Feel free to ask for it from somebody when you see them Blue. Maybe you could provide them with a quick and easy link to one of the tests, you know... to make it more likely that they'll do it for ya. Is there a category for "Lazy"?. Because those ones probably won't do the test, lol.
ReplyDeleteyes we need more people to participate. Have to get DK in on this!!!!
ReplyDeletewell introverted means you spend lots of time in your own head thinking about "stuff". I do that, yet people get the mistaken impression that I am an extrovert because we INFJs can come across that way. We like people, we just don't like to be AROUND them much, and we're friendly.
Additionally the INs are almost always of above average intelligence.
LOL would post it on Danerics but I'd get ridiculed and flamed no doubt. Might try that anyway to see if i get any responses.
i'm doing a survey. TESTIFY your Myers Briggs! LOL
ReplyDeleteif you don't know it here's a link to a test
http://kisa.ca/personality/
i'm doing a survey PB. TESTIFY your Myers Briggs! LOL
ReplyDeleteif you don't know it here's a link to a test
http://kisa.ca/personality/
i'm doing a survey DK. TESTIFY your Myers Briggs! LOL
ReplyDeleteif you don't know it here's a link to a test
http://kisa.ca/personality/
if anyone hasn't taken part in my Myers-Briggs survey please help me out and do so and post your results.
ReplyDeleteif you don't already know below is a link,
http://kisa.ca/personality/
Greg, only now did I see this response that you left way down below:
ReplyDelete"Weird, this response took a day to get to my email. All Disqus responses seem delayed.
Glad you don't mind, and yes, I can see your point ... so I won't
bother doing that anymore. Was thinking they might not be aware of your
positive alternative, but they should be by now."
I've been getting the sense that something is screwed up with Disqus because there is a place where a blog owner can go where he can see all the comments as they arrive (for moderation purposes if required). Of course none of the comments coming in here need moderation but I find that page very handy for making sure I don't miss comments that might be buried way down in the page or even on a dead post from weeks past.
So I can see the new comments coming in, yet when I come to this page to read them they aren't here yet. Sometimes I have to do a 'Control F' type of refresh in order to see them. And sometimes I have to go back to the moderating page where I can see them all, and hit a link that says "view on original page". In that case they 'always' show up where they are supposed to be. So I'm wondering if maybe some of the comments are not being viewed by some of the participants here while others are able to see them? I wouldn't think one would have to dump his Firefox cache every hour in order to ensure this piggy Disqus is working properly. Anybody got any ideas or advice?
i have to refresh all the time here. sometimes comments show up and sometimes they don't.
ReplyDeletethat wasn't the case at the troll blog so dunnno. i also posted my myers briggs survey over there cuz i figured i'd get a bunch of responses....
Ok, thanks for the input on that Blue.
ReplyDeleteGreat idea about posting the survey over there. Otherwise you wouldn't get a broad enough spectrum of results here. I'm certain that Wagner's ego will demand that he take the test in order that he can prove some sort of self-perceived superiority but he's not gonna like it when the results come in as TROL.
Yeah, problem is-the LAST one looked textbook as well, until it got wrecked,lol.
ReplyDeleteHow about a six pack? Of indicators the mood is already turning risk off...
ReplyDeleteWe got the GDOW looking like it's rolling over (Global Dow), along with VEU (all the indexes EXCEPT the US). We got transports rolling over, we got LQD losing its channel lower channel line and staying under it (that's the fund that tracks market liquidity ). Then we got a couple of junk funds. Junk is a great indicator of risk mood. People will take the higher risk junk when the mood is risk on. And it looks like JNK and HYG are already working a 2 of a possible 5 down.
These are a few reasons why I'm not confident the S&P makes it to 1560. But I still consider it possible.
http://i.imgur.com/fhdDtsi.jpg
But maybe this one'll take ... I've noticed that if you have a good count in the beginning, it's an easy matter to adjust the ending squiggles, and there's not any obvious alternative counts that your GBPUSD could be leading up to this ...
ReplyDeleteAlmost ... 93.60. Almost shorted it on the way down.
ReplyDeleteAnd some wine coolers ...
ReplyDeleteNice summary ... and it does sounds risk-offy to me. And toss in the bucket of ingredients that currencies have had some solid one's down. AUDUSD, Maybe EURUSD. And all debt looks weak along with JNK as you mentioned -- TLT (treasury bonds) and MUB (munies).
Maybe we will have it all go down together, bonds and stocks, as Daneric has predicted for some time now.
I still hear people say they have to buy stocks to get a decent return ... I suspect that thinking would change quickly once we have a -3% day or -5% or -8%.
Some indicators seem to agree that might be the bottom -- 4hr MACD has crossed over for some time.
ReplyDeleteConfirming your count which looks done.
Positive divergence on the 30m MACD.
Going sideways now with no more lows at 1.5460 ... came out of downtrend ...
Not above the cloud on any timeframe yet, but when it is, this thing could get a quick start on a 2 retrace.
I don't know, I'm not real internet savvy ... I sometimes log out and back in to refresh it. I don't know if I'm not seeing stuff that's there. But it was weird this weekend, it was like a day delay for the emails to show up. And it wasn't an email alert, just the standard email responses to my comments. But it could also be our email.
ReplyDeleteHaha ... they would come back as TROL too!
ReplyDeleteOk OK
ReplyDeletehere's my result-tell me what it means & i'll buy you a beer
ISTP
heehee. thank you DK. ANOTHER "I"
ReplyDeletehere you go. read here.
http://www.personalitypage.com/ISTP.html
yall prolly think i'm crazy but i shorted usdjpy at 9390 today before the RBA announcement.
ReplyDeleteI had every intention of putting a buy in at 9350ish area because and was talking to Greg about that very thing, but, some crazy INFJ intuition told me to short it right then and there, so I did.
I think with the uncertainty regarding the new BoJ Governor (and now there is three candidates) and the fact that Abe will make a trip to the US and we won't know about the new Governor until AFTER that, that USDJPY is not going to get bought like crazy between now and then. Too many levels of uncertainty. Plus ya gotta admit, the damn thing is crazy overbought.
I just read it on Wikipedia - pretty spot on & no surprises there.
ReplyDeleteI suppose it takes a certain type to frequent these boards (except AR -he can't possibly be an introvert, lol)
I didn't realise it was based on original work by Jung himself. I read his Memories, Dreams & Reflections & his stuff on the collective unconscious a long time ago-much preferred him to that raving sex-obsessed lunatic Freud!
so how does that translate into trading maybe something like this
- "very good at analysis charts and stuff, but can get a bit wild & loose with the execution"??
- "very good at analysis charts and stuff, but can get a bit wild & loose with the execution"??
ReplyDeletebwahahahaha. that made me LOL. I have about 30 replies thus far and am going to compile a list of my findings.
I love Jung's work too, so I got off on this tangent awhile back finding out my friends MB type, then started wondering what MB types traders were and what they had in common.
I am true to mine also. And am VERY high in intuition....100%. hahahaha. which makes sense as i hate indicators. they are lagging and intuition is not!
Geez Louise, Permabear Doomster just might take the honors with his up, up and away thesis. ;-)
ReplyDeleteI've just updated my top 4 scenario probabilities (in the comments section of my most recent post).
http://highrevsopenhouse.blogspot.com/2013/02/correlations-then-and-now.html#comment-804212007
We're at some king of top right now don't you think?
ReplyDeleteThat was just 5 squiggle waves up off the Friday low
Well you're very intuitive so that makes sense.
ReplyDeleteI figured I was going to be some kind of IN**
I suspect they aren't as rare as the test givers would have us believe. They just haven't found them is all.
It is looking kind of head-and-shoulder-y, but I can't see it dropping a whole lot anytime soon.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it moves into a big, aggravating chaotic range like it's been known to do before the current pumping regime?
Worldwide recession already started
ReplyDeletehttp://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Dwaine-van-Vuuren-130215-World-Recession.php