Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Ben Replies

A month ago I begged the question "304% Per Year? Is That Sustainable Ben?"  Well who could have possibly guessed... nothing has changed.  Not a damned thing.  So one has to wonder... with yet another month's worth of water under the bridge liquidity flowing into the equities markets for no other reason than "we're not going to lend it to anybody so we might as well just blow it", how many more months will the markets rise in a straight line before Bernanke's face starts to blush with embarrassment?  Not many I'd say.  Here's a latest glimpse at the carnival of horrors that will literally see the S&P 500 at 3174 by December 31st.  Because barring any form of pullback, that's literally where it will be at the rate the market has been rising since December 31st, the eve of the Congressional Clown Show.   Needless to say, we're not going to be seeing the S&P at 3174 nor the Dow at 30,598 at year end.  But as impossible as it is to believe, that's the amount of juice the insane have been pouring into the markets since the Congressional Comedy Hour last aired.

Click here for a live and updating version

And just so that we don't get distracted and take our focus off the currency markets, here's a link to the previous post which contained a number of excellent charts supplied by DarkestKnight.  We may well move some of those charts over here in the coming days since the currencies markets seem to be holding the keys now, especially the Euro in my humble opinion.

 ======================  END OF ORIGINAL ARTICLE  ====================

And thanks to our tireless friend in Australia, we are pleased to present more of DarkestKnight's updated charts on some of the more important currency pairs in various time scales:

DarkestKnight's AUD:JPY 4 hour - right click chart for a larger version (open link in new tab)

DK's AUD:USD 4 hour - right click chart for a larger version (open link in new tab)
 
DK's EUR:USD - Daily - right click chart for a larger version (open link in new tab)

DK's EUR:USD - 4 hour - right click chart for a larger version (open link in new tab)

DK's EUR:AUD - 4 hour - right click chart for a larger version (open link in new tab)

.........

125 comments:

  1.  is that like "your check is in the mail?"

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  2. Ahh, finally, its good to see someone else post the 'crazy targets' were the current up trend to continue until year end.

    Actually sp'3k is only a PE of 30/40 (depending on which you use), and thats only equivilant to the tech boom - a time of NO QE, and where the bond market was a reasonable rival for investment funds.

    You see, unless QE ends..your crazy number WILL be hit. No matter how bizarre it seems, yes..we are seeing the market spiral higher.

    I've a 'small hope' the Fed will pull the POMO programme sometime in Q3. If that is the case, we could then see 20/25% pull back across a few months.

    Anyone still think SP' <1000...ever again?
    -

    I just think everyone is over-thinking it. All those fancy fib charts...wedges, etc...none of it matters.

    Fed print.. market UP.  

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  3. Your prize IS in the mail.

    I hope you like it.

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  4.  well thanks (umm i think)

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  5. hey AR
    I'll update some of those shorter-term charts in a minute if you like- some of them got busted (of course), but bigger picture still on track.

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  6. Hey there PD :-)

    "Anyone still think SP' <1000...ever again?"

    Not if the bankers can retain control forever.  So my answer is "absolutely" because if they ever lose control it'll be full blown deflation that would likely last 20 years.  I know, I know... right now to try to even 'imagine' a scenario where they lose control is nearly inconceivable.  Yet as far as I know, never before has deflation bogey ever been stopped in its tracks once it got started.

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  7. EURAUD daily
    http://screencast.com/t/jLkimz2NM0

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  8. I wonder if PD

    WHAT lies on the road ahead?
    What LIES on the road ahead?
    What lies ON the road ahead?
    What lies on the ROAD ahead?
    What lies on the road, a HEAD?

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  9. Here's your Euro - see if this pans out
    http://screencast.com/t/qFIQMobtndJ

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  10. GBPUSD still struggling to find a low - has been dangerous business trying to catch a counter-trend play.

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  11.  lol. dunno, but i'm perplexed.

    love your five lines. very cool.

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  12.  lol. DK slavin' away down under because we have a voracious appetite for his charts. : )

    thanks DK!

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  13. FREE FALLIN'

    i'm waiting for a hammer on the daily and then a confirming candle.

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  14. AUDJPY 4hrly
    http://screencast.com/t/XG2SQM97Q

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  15. Sure thing buddy.  We might as well carry the theme of 'currencies' over to this post now, because I'm really starting to appreciate how much more important the inter-relationships are these days than they were even as little as 3-4 months ago.

    By the way DK, when you supply a chart image, do you have the ability to supply us with a link that updates your charts in real time?

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  16. Haha.  Yeah, we have to just make sure we put the emPHAsis on the right sylABLE.

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  17. no real time link AR

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  18.  he doesn't ask for MUCH does he? ! lol

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  19. still short usdjpy. freaked me out on that spike but it got sold so still in it and fantasizing about 88...heehee. ok maybe 90, not quite as satisfying but it would do !

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  20.  And I'm envisioning 96.4 next after that nice five waver from 92.2 to 94.2 ... time will tell ... I think this correction has been a strong one for 9 days.  That prior high is a key pivot for usdjpy bulls to take out.  And I think today's low 93.28 could have been a little (ii) and if that holds I think we're ready for a wave higher.  A tight stop anyway in that area.

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  21.  And scarier still ... how can they stop it?

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  22.  Yes, I tried for a bit and got out with a very small loss ... looked so nice too, that count ... just another wiggle I suppose.

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  23. thanx Greg! it's always good to know the waves i'm up against.!!! 

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  24. I think it's a big up wave a comin' ... a (iii) of an extended fifth wave getting started, and (ii) is done.  But seein is believin.

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  25. & I'll take a stab at AUDUSD
    http://screencast.com/t/0ybwGyMh

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  26.  it will go up or it will go down. that's all i know. lol

    but nouf pointed something out just a bit ago on the twit feed. NIK made new high and usdjpy did not, so he is saying "that's a divergence!"

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  27. LOL.  I was hoping he'd be able to provide them purely from a practical perspective.  If over the course of a day or two the market were to zig when DK expected it to zag, the chart would update automatically of course, but then if DK made a change to his count his changed count would show up in the link at all times.  But as it is, if DK has to make a change I'd have to remove his original chart and replace it.  I'm not always here to do that quickly.

    Or another way to say it, "my lazy side was acting up", lol.

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  28.  blame it on your meyers briggs.... :)

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  29. "INTJs are perfectionists, with a seemingly endless capacity for improving upon anything that takes their interest."

    heehee

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  30. That's a fact Jack.  You know the old saying "if it ain't broke, don't fix it?".  Well I'm always fixin' stuff that ain't broke, trying to make it better.  For example, I once had a washing machine that worked well.  But I tried to alter it so that I could also use it as a tumbler to strip the bark off of logs.  I was able to get it to do that but then it would wash clothes very well after that.  They came out... well, kind of dirty.

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  31. was a novel idea! and would have been the perfect opportunity for her to snag a new washer.

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  32. Yup but she blew it and opted for a new husband instead, lol.

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  33. AR, you once wondered if the Fed had gotten trapped in this aggressive intervention strategy. I think the answer is becoming more evident. There's nothing supporting the market but intervention. Nothing else under these levels to hold them up. It appears there's no choice but to continue. And yes, it will end with a loss of control. I think that "credibility" line comes into play. The reality check line. The point where people can no longer kid themselves about market levels being reasonable or sustainable. The line where people say "this is getting crazy, and if I keep playing along, people will think I'm crazy too." The line where people say, "Whoa, we've gotten too high, I don't feel comfortable with this." It's the line where people dig in their heels. That line is that triple top bubble-busting line. The markets shouldn't be so close to that line. But due to intervention, here they are.

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  34. If you're not in the habit of visiting Springheel Jack's site every morning you might want to give that a whirl.  I think the guy is a terrific analyst and his take on things always seems like a bit of fresh air compared to what we usually focus on.  He talks about currencies today as well and as usual, he makes a lot of sense.  I'm pretty sure he's in England but the market he usually focuses on the S&P.

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  35. That's what I think too Papa, almost to a tee.  I don't think 'anything' else matters to them now other than to try to ignite some inflation.  But the assholes are going about it all wrong and surely they 'have to know that.  If they want to ignite inflation, they should shut those damned printing presses right off and start lending like mad into the economy.  The inflation that would result would be 5 or 8 times as big as what they're generating right now.  So there simply has to be something more to it because it seems that the only place that money is going is to bail out big banks and to buy up the stock and bond markets.  They buy the bond markets in order to keep rates low of course.  They buy up the stock markets by Bernanke's own admission, to "make people feel wealthier so they'll spend more and help re-ignite the economy".  He sounds like a 6 year old with that line of thinking because both practices are completely illusory and only temporary fixes.

    So why aren't they lending into the economy and igniting inflation the old fashioned way?  Perhaps it's because he doesn't really want to ignite inflation to the point where they simply can't hold rates down, yet at the same time he can clearly see that the deflation monster has popped the lid off the old vase in both Japan and Europe.  For this reason I'm sticking to my theory of 2 or 3 years ago that the USA will be the last domino to fall.  I think the Euro's days are numbered and that it will enter a freefall soon not too dissimilar to what the Yen is undergoing.  Only 'then' will the USD really start to surge but when it does, I'm not even convinced that US equities would have to fall as a result.  Both might be seen as a safe haven when seen through the eyes of a Euro user whose stock markets could be rising but priced in a crashing currency.  Like the Japanese are experiencing right now... the Nikkei is rising but the currency is falling at a faster rate.  Any Japanese who is seeing his stock portfolio rising knows he's losing purchasing power at the same time. 

    So in a nutshell I think Bernanke is looking at two different faces of the same coin and interprets what he sees as being two different coins.  In the strangest of ways, he'd be right.  Yep, I'm pretty convinced he's in such a pickle that he doesn't know how to get out of it.  Trapped!  The central banks are all all trapped in the same prison cell of their own making.  So I guess Bernanke's course of action is based on what he sees coming a year or 2 down the road and he probably thinks the 'only' way to keep the deflation genie from popping the lid off the vase in America is to load it down with dollars.  But for some reason they're not lending into the economy thereby creating 10 times the load.

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  36. as the Fed takes on more duration risk, the Fed may soon operate at a loss
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-19/feds-d-rate-45-dec-31-2013-and-dropping-fast

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  37. thanks AR. He's on my twit feed, but I've never visited his site. He doesn't tweet much, but the site is great!

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  38. thanks AR. He's on my twit feed, but I've never visited his site. He doesn't tweet much, but the site is great!

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  39. from John Mauldin's newsletter

    Currency SkirmishesI continue to think the euro is going to parity with the dollar over time. The ECB in conjunction with its various national banks is going to have to monetize and print (or we can call it by its polite name, “quantitative easing”) to an even greater extent than the US Fed. Along with the money gushing from the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England, there are going to be sums injected into the global system that simply cannot be comprehended. And all this easing will force developing nations to compete at the printing press.The recent G20 meeting basically said, “It is OK to print as long as you are doing it to stimulate your economy and not to devalue your currency. And for heaven’s sake, don’t talk about it. Shut up already!”That’s a loose interpretation, I admit. But read Super Mario’s statement about the G20 meeting, and you make the call:Most of the exchange rate movements that we have seen were not explicitly targeted; they were the result of domestic macro-economic policies meant to boost the economy… [and] In this sense, I find really excessive any language referring to currency wars… [but] What I did say at the G20 in Moscow, I urged all parties to (exercise) very, very strong verbal discipline.In an article titled “G-20 Moves Toward Common Ground on Currencies,” the Wall Street Journal reported:… there was more agreement on the need for market based exchange rate and [the G-20] pledged Saturday to refrain from targeting their currency policies to gain a competitive trading advantage….Germany's central bank president, Jens Weidmann, said it was clear at the meeting that G-20 members agreed that “politically driven devaluations can't sustainably improve competitiveness, don't solve structural problems and produce backlash reactions….”“The understanding in this meeting was clearly that without going to extremes, developed countries will do what it takes to stimulate their economies, and developing countries—again without going to extremes – will do what it takes to protect themselves from hot-money inflows,” said a senior official at a developing-country government that is part of the G-20.We have not yet seen real currency wars. What we see today are mere skirmishes in what is shaping up to be a brutal battle to simply maintain a competitive stance.I should note – as I almost hit the send button – that Ian Bremmer (who will be speaking at my conference in May) sent me a recent note about currency wars. He argues that Europe and China do not want to get involved in a currency war and that many emerging nations would also rather not. His argument makes sense, as a currency war is kind of like having an old-fashioned gunfight, except with hand grenades – there are no winners.China will continue to allow its currency to appreciate slowly, for at least a few years. I can see Bremmer’s argument with regard to Europe, in that they would really like to focus on inflation and the ECB would like to be a proper central bank; but Draghi’s words keeps ringing in my ears: “… whatever it takes to preserve the euro.” And what it takes may be money printing and a little inflation. We will get lip service, but the presses will run.Korea? Taiwan? They have to compete with Japan. And the rest of Asia has to compete with all three. Can Brazil, Australia, and the other commodity-intensive countries allow their currencies to be priced out of the markets, thus weakening their economies? I think self-interest will trump all. This is the problem of the commons writ large.

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  40. Twit feed?  I assume you mean troll central?

    Glad you like Jack's place though.  I really appreciate his stuff.

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  41. In other words, the individual countries do not want to engage in a currency war.  But it's gonna happen anyway out of necessity to "at least keep up with the rest of the world".  Just like deflation, once it begins it would be difficult to contain... not 'as difficult', but still a challenge.  At least in the case of a currency war, cooler heads 'do have the power to put an end to it.  Unlike deflation which is all but impossible to contain.

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  42. In other words, the Fed is at the poker table and they're "all in".

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  43. Ahem... I was making a joke, a wee bit of a barb thrown at that site, lol.

    I more or less know what twitter is but I don't use it nor know 'how to' use it.  But my daughter did set me up with an Albertarocks identity on twitter, so it's there for when I get around to figuring out whether or not I want to use it.   I just don't get Tweeter at all...I don't know what it's for.  Like who gives a rats ass what Albertarocks might have to say in 50 characters or less.  I'm sure I'd like it once I dig a little deeper and find out what it's all about?

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  44. I like it because I can follow different people. Some who I know and some are forex sites or news feeds or agricultural info I follow. I really love it for that purpose. Snippets of info. It's like the news crawl on the bottom of your TV screen in a way.

    Plus I an tweet stuff if I want and the people who get your tweets are only the people who "follow" you, so it's not like the world gets your tweets.

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  45. Blue, you've ignited a bit of interest on my part about Twitter.  Please see my comment below.  I've just found my Twitter account.  I have never tweeted.  I am following nobody.  Nobody is following me.  But at least I found it and apparently I am @AlbertarocksTA.  My profile also shows that Tweeter address as being associated with this blog.  We must have set that up when my daughter created my account.

    I don't know what to do next.

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  46. i can't find you. or I'd follow you!

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  47. you have to log into twitter with your name and password. as i am following you, you can click on me and follow me back. you can see who I am following and who is following me if you go to my profile and you can follow THEM if you click on them (or anyone else you are interested in what they have to say). I've used my account for a couple of years to follow info, but didn't tweet much until lately.

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  48. This is a rather strange pattern in QQQ (as a proxy for $NDX because I want to show volume).  This doesn't look like a consolidation-before-a-launch in my opinion.  I consider it as a major league "failure to launch" after an incredible consolidation lasting 6 weeks.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=30&b=1&g=0&id=p14583444963&a=293560291&r=1361382951223&cmd=print

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  49. nice bearish engulfing and that gap is calling...

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  50. OMG!  I have a follower now.  It's Ellen DeGeneris.  No wait... it's you!  Yay!

    Ok, so now I'm following you too.

    So now... what would I use Twitter for?  To send a general 'note' to my hundreds of followers?... or to sent a private Tweet to you?  I assume Twitter is mostly for a very short general broadcast of a short comment... would that be about right?

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  51. That's very helpful, thanks.  I want to really understand it though before I start tweeting much.

    So let's say I tweeting something like "SPX likely to fall into the close."  Those who follow me would see it I assume.  What would happen if you re-tweeted my tweet.. if that's possible... if that's what "re-tweeting" means.  What would happen if you did that?

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  52. ya just freakin' insulted me!

    well as i am the ONLY person following you right now, I am the only person who will get your tweets!

    there is a private Direct Message function that you can also utilize. then no one except the one person will get that message.

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  53. yes.
    and if i retweeted you all of MY followers would get that tweet.

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  54. "ya just freakin' insulted me!"

    I hope you're joking about that because that's the last thing in the world I'd want to do.

    When I said my "hundreds of followers" I was speaking hypothetically of course.  Trying to learn.  But your info is very helpful... I'm starting to get the hang of it I think.

    If I wanted to let the whole world know that I'm now on Twitter how would I do that?  Or would I even want to do that?  Like... instead I might want to be more careful or selective and hope only a few special people follow me.  I still don't quite understand that part.  I think that's mainly because I'm a bit cautious or 'suspicious' about Twitter... probably completely unfounded.

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  55. Ellen DeGeneres? seriously?

    If someone follows you and you don't want them to, just block them and they will never show up on your feed.

    you can put your twitter name on your blog HERE just as you have your site on THERE.

    you'll love it. trust me.

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  56. LMAO... Oh I get it.  I see what you were getting at.  It was a simple misunderstanding because...

    when I opened Twitter for the first time ever... or at least 'after' you started following me, Ellen DeGeneris' name showed up in the left hand column.  So I jokingly said that she was following me.  It had no reference to your picture which is what I'm assuming you thought I meant.  Your picture, whoever it is, is a very pretty girl. :-)

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  57. couldn't reply below for some reason...

    that is ME. (well, a "couple" of year ago :)

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  58. I found out why you couldn't reply below.  Neither could I.  It's because Discus has dictated a maximum 'thread depth' of 10 replies.  I went to increase that but find that we're already at the max.

    In any case, the accidental insult issue is now a 'non-issue', right?  We were both thinking two entirely different things.

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  59. couldn't reply again, but just havin' fun with ya :)

    that's your logic vs. your social interaction again :)

    on the troll blog, thread depth seemed unlimited. had a conversation with SJ once that got narrower and narrower until it just disappeared from the page. i've seen it happen to others too. maybe disqus has changed since then.

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  60. $SPX just went negative for the week producing the first red weekly candle in 8 weeks.  I think it stays red through Friday.

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  61. Holy smokes, that chart was rather timely wasn't it?  Because price has just smashed through the lower channel.  Therefore I think it was a topping pattern as I suspected.  Now we're going to get an opportunity to see if those support levels hold.

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  62. I found out why you couldn't reply below.  Neither could I.  It's because Discus has dictated a maximum 'thread depth' of 10 replies.  I went to increase that but find that we're already at the max.

    In any case, the accidental insult issue is now a 'non-issue', right?  We were both thinking two entirely different things.

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  63. Yes it did do just that, got narrower and narrower until it was like one word wide.  But I checked the settings and Disqus had set a max. limit on that now.  It will become a non-issue in the Discus 2012 when they force us to switch over.

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  64. Haha the Fed doesnt get margin calls!

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  65. Positions update. Lifting foot off of throat of GBP/USd for now. Aud/usd shorts looking good. Yen pairs shorts looking good. Lets see if we get some follow through.

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  66. In reference to that candlevolume chart I posted the other day, here's an update.  Somebody got out day early, that's all.

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  67. I laughed at your sound effect a lot more than I should.

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  68. heehee knew that gap would fill. noice AR!

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  69. Haha, I got a bit of a chuckle out of it too.  But honestly, based on the shape of the pattern and with increasing volume on each succeeding bar that sentiment (thump) really seriously did jump out at me.

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  70. Good place for a bounce if any on cable. Aussie not there yet. Long term cable looks very bearish.

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  71.  Volume speaks volumes as my investing teacher used to say ...

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  72.  Blueskies got me into twitter, and I don't get there much yet (as you know new routines take time to create with me and INFP's), but I'll follow you, and you'll have two followers!

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  73.  And as you'd said ... that top has already busted two bubbles.  It's got some barbed wire all over it. 

    There's some real reason behind the minutes talking about ending QEternity.  Like maybe they know they can't continue intervening everywhere, so they are going to give up supporting the markets (by giving money to banks in this silly QE thing that has diminishing impacts), and just focus on what matters ... Europe or bonds ... or?  But in the end, equity markets are not number one on their priority list, IF they have limited resources.

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  74.  Good stuff ... just wanted to add one comment on the idea around why banks are "not lending money out to have it expand money base in the economy."  I think banks do not want to lend it out.  There are few good risks left ... everyone is up to their eyeballs in debt, and most have mortgages that are already underwater, and likely turning into a huge unfunded liability for the same banks that don't want to lend out money.  Why?  Because they don't have the capital, really ... it's all getting sucked up into losses on prior loans.  THAT is part of the deflation geenie too.  Even with all this money available to banks, their underwriting standards are way tighter than in 2006.  Because their equity is so constrained -- losses on their prior leveraged 10:1 loans.  One banker I talked to said their corporation clients aren't using their revolving credit line.  They have few ways to make money.  Real estate is slow, I don't care what they say on CNBC.

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  75. Goldman is pumping up dollar yen

    http://bit.ly/Y9RTAn

    Looking for suckers to unload its position on?



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  76.  Maybe a divergence, but the way I see it is that NIK is only up because the currency is down, and the currency is the dog, and the NIK is the tail.

    Today was some good work for the yen, I think it put in a little ii down to 93.17, found support at three lines:  50% retrace of i, 1 hr ichimoku cloud (solid), and something else.  Then today it escaped from the downtrend line, and after the Fed news, ran shorts up to 94, and then retested that old resistance line, new support.

    I think we are getting ready for a run to 96.2 ... but they sure are good at making both sides look plausable, eh?

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  77.  all good thoughts. and it sure has been volatile. a daytraders dream if i wasn't working. so hard to focus and trade cuz you have to be fast.

    above the high i'm long, until then i think i'll just try to trade it both ways. i respect your viewpoint!

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  78.  I think usdjpy could be close to a break out ... technically.

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  79. USDJPY:

    Check out this fractal for this count of (ii) of extended fifth ... it's very similar to 2 of a few months ago.  And irregular like 4 was.
    It's been repeating fractals fairly regularly.

     

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  80.  Is that legal?

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  81. Well, we all know that theoretically they have unlimited resources.So there must be a practical limit coming into play. Your guess is as good as mine as to what it is.

    Of course, there's the possibility that that triple top trend line affects them too. And they simply get edgy at these market levels just like a lot of investors do.

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  82. That is hard to guess at. 

    Maybe it's like your car example ... they can't actually move the markets anymore.  Because the more money they give the banks, and the banks might still buy stocks after 4 years even tho it's over valued.  But then the smart players start selling to them to unload, and voila, the market stalls. 

    People start front running the Fed money so they get out.  This is all the greater fool theory.  People only bought bonds because they thought the Fed would also buy bonds so the price would go up.  People bought stocks similarly -- they can't go down the Fed has our back. 

    In the 1930's, eventually the Govt. just stopped throwing money at problems because it wasn't working, and they just let the market clear.  Clearly the impact is diminishing.

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  83.  Also, you're right, the Europeans and Japanese might think it makes sense to buy the US stock market, just for currency reasons.

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  84.  It struck me today that it's odd that seemingly EVERY country wants their currency weaker, and is talking it down, or selling it down ... EXCEPT the U.S.  Or they aren't saying anything.  And they don't say anything to Japan about their trashing of their currency. 

    Could it be because if they have a strong currency, they will get buyers of their debt?  As the buyers switch into something denominated in a currency that isn't going into a death spiral.  Yet.

    Which has been a small miracle that there still our buyers, given that China backed away.  And Japan doesn't have any money.  But they buy our debt so they can sell their yens and drive yens down.

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  85. Hey, maybe the real reason could be that the Fed doesn't NEED to buy US bonds anymore.
    They were really the buyer of last resort (the stimulous by low interest rates was just a cover up) after China walked away and before Japan stepped up to weaken their currency.
    But now that the Euro and yen are headed into the toilet, the Fed found the next buyers!
    So ... no need for the Fed to print money to buy the debt.
    China was pissed about that anyway.
    That's the Fed's primary priority ... make sure we don't have failed treasury auctions, lest interest rates skyrocket.  The equity market is a distant priority.

    Just a thought ...

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  86. GBP has clearly broken down out of that nice symmetrical trinagle.  A couple of weeks ago we were discussing the Aussie and the only question 'at that time' was about when it was going to break out 'upward' out of its own pattern.  At the time I proposed this:  Today I see it a bit differently but I admit that darned Aussie has been so sideways and so wacky for the last 10 months that I don't know what to think about it today.

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  87. GBP has clearly broken down out of that nice symmetrical trinagle.  A
    couple of weeks ago we were discussing the Aussie and the only question
    'at that time' was about when it was going to break out 'upward' out of
    its own pattern.  At the time I proposed this:  Today I see it a bit
    differently but I admit that darned Aussie has been so sideways and so
    wacky for the last 10 months that I don't know what to think about it
    today.

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  88. No sir... that's as illegal as a wave 4 overlap, lol.

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  89. It would seem to me that with every speech the Fed makes about it's QE program, about how they intend to hold rates "accommodative" through to at least 2015 "is" their way of automatically talking the dollar down since it clearly implies that they intend to print until then.  About 12 hours ago I was suggesting to readers that they check in to Springheel Jack's site every morning like many people do.  Today he has a particularly good piece wherein he discusses that very issue of why the US dollar isn't falling.  I couldn't agree with him more.  You can find that one here Greggor.

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  90. Thanks Greg.  I'm exactly the same way... I don't readily take to new routines or tech all that well.  I eventually do but I'm really guilty of that.  I admit that I'm exceedingly suspicious of Facebook and Twitter, especially Facebook.  I will 'never' hook myself up with Facebook.  The authorities are already clearly using it for spying purposes because they've already charged people with crimes based on what they have said on Facebook.  I don't do crimes but I also don't like Johnny Hardass or anybody else peering over my shoulder without permission.

    ReplyDelete
  91. Here's a little clue in a summary of the notes I read ...
     
    "More broadly, the minutes from the Fed's January policy meeting revealed worries that its current stimulus measures could result in instability in financial markets and may be difficult to remove in the future."NOW they are worried about an exit plan?

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  92. I suppose theoretically they 'do' have a limit in that they can't just print for the sake of printing I don't think.  They have to have some reason for printing and of course over the years that reason has been to purchase treasuries.  They can't buy the stock market directly, they need to produce funds and feed those funds to their minions.  It's their minions that buy the stock markets up.  If the Federal Government of the United States of America had no need to borrow, if they had never gotten into this insurmountable mountain of debt and incredibly poor spending habits, running up a deficit year after year... if they had just one single year of a balanced budget and didn't need to borrow a single penny... there would be no need for a FED at all.

    Is it any wonder then that the are the greatest cheerleaders for more government borrowing?  Central banks are the greatest cheerleaders for all the debt junkie countries on the planet and they are more than willing to supply the crack at every turn.  That's their business... they're drug dealers essentially.

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  93. i've thought that all along, Greg. what's their plan when none of this actually works? i think they were just hoping to buy time and everything would magically sort itself out, so there WAS no exit plan, just hope. like being underwater in a trade and getting more and more underwater until you have to pay the price which hurts even MORE than if you had a solid exit plan from the beginning.

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  94. The Fed sure wouldn't need to buy US bonds if the government would just balance that god damned budget.  A balanced budget would damned near put the Fed out of business.  I say "BALANCE THAT DAMNED BUDGET AND GET RID OF THE BASTARDS!"  Easier said than done of course... perhaps impossible now, especially since the bankers need the USA as its 'global enforcement branch'.  That's really what they're using the USA for because it has been said that the global banking cabal "know no country", that they are "loyal to no country, they are loyal only to themselves as the ruling class of this planet".  I've got one word for assholes like that and it starts with F and ends with YOU.

    ReplyDelete
  95. Thanks for the currency blog, I bookmarked it, and it looks like a very good resource.  Interesting read it was.  I agree ... the dollar isn't going down because the other ones in the index are going down faster, and printing more.  He has that chart that DK had on the GBP! 

    In addition, I'd add that while many point to printing, another reason often not mentioned is Capital outflows from debt bomb currencies -- yen and Euro.  These capital outflows could become tsunamis, and I think that alone explains more of the yen collapse than printing.

    And the AUDUSD was an interesting one to ... if the banks have their free money spigot turned off .. the carry trade gravy train will end.  

    ReplyDelete
  96. People only bought bonds because they thought the Fed would also buy
    bonds so the price would go up.  People bought stocks similarly -- they
    can't go down the Fed has our back.


    Great comment Greg.  I think you hit the hail on the head... Japan is proving that very theory as we speak.  The Japanese people bought so many of their own government bonds for that exact reason, because they trusted their government to 'never' bring inflation to that country by smashing the Yen lower.  Well right now the government of Abe is doing exactly that, and in the process he's stabbing every Japanese bond holder in the back... his own people.

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  97.  That's good to know about FB ... I've always limited what I've said on that.  Didn't know about the spying purposes with police ... job interviews I did hear about tho ... people getting screened by their FB.

    Oh yes, I never made it to Tweeter today (er, Twitter), so I'll follow you tomorrow ... cheers.

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  98. Haha... so it turns out that the Fed is actually a pretty crappy trader.

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  99. SpringHeel Jack isn't a currency blog per se Greg although he did do a great currency post today.  He's one of 3 that I have listed on the right panel as "highly recommended chart analysts".  He's consistent, usually posting in the morning before our markets open and although he's in England he focuses mainly on our markets.  And he's a real good guy.  He told me he drops in here but he doesn't comment anywhere much, not even on his own blog, although I've had a quick chat with him over there a time or two.

    ReplyDelete
  100. EURUSD -adjusted
    Now looks like a bullish  expanding wedge, but how they gonna pull another 500+ pip risk-on rally from out of Ben's arse would be a mystery to me (but not the first time....and maybe the last he he)

    http://screencast.com/t/JFDPwQ2P5Hp

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  101. That's probably a good way to do it. Since you already have a wide public following due to your blog and Seeking Alpha that makes sense to allow all comers unless they are obvious assholes.

    Those stray tweets are probably the result of the others re-tweeting somebody else. You can turn off anyone's retweets:

    https://support.twitter.com/articles/77606-faqs-about-retweets-rt

    There are also 3rd party plugins that can filter the tweets and sort them, but I haven't gotten into those too much. 

    Generally, if someone is retweeting a lot of junk, I stop following them. Most of the people I follow provide good information though, so I look forward to most of it.

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  102. Hey AR, GF at al
    re your Twitter conversations.
    I am tracking AUDUSD & AUDJPY very closely at the moment - looks like a very important moment in time. So I might be spewing out loads of charts & short-term updates over the coming week, but I don't want to take over your blog.
    Maybe if I post them on twitter?
    I 'm still new to this twitter thing, but it might be worth somehow linking this site to our twitter feeds..or?? 

    DK

    ReplyDelete
  103.  i was going to suggest that DK. Dog, SJ, CR post charts there. It's great.
    And i am following you so wouldja follow me BACK please????? :)

    ReplyDelete
  104. Geez... I just found a chart in my library that I had put together back in November and published somewhere.  Then I totally forgot about it.  I'd probably do quite a bit better if I'd listen to my own analysis once in a while, lol.

    ReplyDelete
  105. i'm trying to fix all those spaces in my post below. don't know why they are there as my word doc doesn't have them!

    ReplyDelete
  106. Myers-Briggs Personality Poll Conclusions

    I didn’t get as many respondents as I would have liked, 100 or more would have been better, but I thought I’d post my findings from the responses I DID get. (LOL. As an INFJ I tend to have a small circle of friends/acquaintances as opposed to large).

    We have:
    Four INFJ
    Two INFP
    Two INTP
    Three INTJ
    Five ISTP
    Two ISTJ
    Two ENTP
    One ENFJ
    Two ENTJ
    One ESFP
    One ESTJ borderline ISTJ
    One ESTP

    Keep in mind the meanings of the letters:

    “I” introvert. They generally prefer interacting with a few close friends rather than a wide circle of acquaintances, and they expend energy in social situations (whereas extraverts gain energy).

    “E” extravert. Often feel motivated by their interaction with people. They tend to enjoy a wide circle of acquaintances, and they gain energy in social situations (whereas introverts expend energy).

    “N” intuition. Tend to be more abstract than concrete. They focus on the big picture rather than the details, and on future possibilities rather than immediate realities.

    “S” sensing. tend to be more concrete than abstract. They focus their attention on the details rather than the big picture, and on immediate realities rather than future possibilities

    “T” tend to rely on objective criteria rather than personal values. When making decisions, they generally give more weight to logic than to social considerations.

    “F” tend to value personal considerations above objective criteria. When making decisions, they often give more weight to social implications than to logic.

    “P” tend to withhold judgment and delay important decisions, preferring to "keep their options open" should circumstances change.

    “J” tend to plan their activities and make decisions early. They derive a sense of control through predictability.

    Of the 26 respondents, the majority, 18, are introverts (the “I”) and eight are extraverts (the “E”).
    Of the 26 respondents, the majority (16) have the intuitive “N” (intuition) in common. Ten have the “S” (sensing) in common.
    Of the 26 respondents, eight have the “F” (feeling) in common and and 17 have the
    “T” (thinking) in common.
    Of the 26 respondents, 13 have the “J” (judging) in common, and 13 have the “P”
    (perceiving) in common. Exactly equal percentage.

    Based on the majority of all respondents, collectively this would give an MB type of 50% INTP and 50% INTJ. ALL introverted, intuitive, and thinking with half being perceiving and half being judging.

    Of the 18 introverts, 11 have the “N” in common, whereas seven have the “S” in common.
    Of the 18 introverts, six have the “F” in common and 12 have the “T” in common
    Of the 18 introverts, nine have the “J” in common and nine have the “P” I common.
    Exactly equal percentage.

    So a combined portrait of just the introverts would equally be INTP and INTJ as the INT are predominant. This also corresponds with the collective “type” of all respondents.

    Of the eight extraverts, five have the “N” in common and three have “S” in common.
    Of the eight extraverts, six have the “T” in common and two have the “F” in common.
    Of the eight extraverts, four have the “P” in common and four have the “J” in
    common. Exactly equal percentage.

    So a combined portrait of the extraverts would give us ENTP and ENTJ as the “Ps” and “Js” are equal once again, and the majority are “N’s” and “T’s”.

    The take-away from this little study is that introversion (internally focused), intuition (abstract thinking and seeing the big picture as opposed to details) and thinking (logic) are HEAVILY weighted in all traders surveyed, with judging (planning) and perceiving (keeping options open) are EXACTLY and equally weighted, among the extraverts, introverts and also collectively!

    So, most traders (surveyed) are internally focused and prefer small groups, see the big picture as opposed to details, and rely heavily on thinking “logic,” rather than feeling, “social implications.”

    ReplyDelete
  107. The inevitable sample size constraints are good reason for skepticism, but the multi-dimensionality of the contrarianism is pretty damn remarkable!

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  108. yes is remarkable! and just makes me wonder what a larger spectrum of traders would yield for results.

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  109. I'll start checking twitter more often, and I'll look for your charts there.  I saw the latest audusd, and it looks like the end of B is soon, and a C-wave up 5-waver and we'll be ready for a iii of 3.  Ah how sweet that will be!  Thanks for sharing your outstanding work.

    ReplyDelete
  110. That was a terrific contribution on your part Blue.  I don't know what inspired you to do such a survey but man is that interesting.  I wouldn't have been able to say the following 'before' your results came out, but now that they're out I guess I am not surprised that the larger portion of those surveyed scored as 'introverts'.  In the real world, I am far from an introvert.  Yet the way the questions were asked, and the way I responded... two different tests say I am an introvert.  I think maybe that's more about how we turn inward to do our thinking and that we trust ourselves above all else... and not pertaining so much to how we behave at a party.  Maybe that's what it means, I dunno.  But it's so very interesting.

    It definitely takes a certain kind of person to have the patience to deal with trading, the intelligence to understand the incredibly complex world of relationships that are involved, the sheer tenacity to stick with it in light of how incredibly difficult and frustrating this business has become since the bakers bankers were permitted back into the markets and promptly began to shit all over them as they always do, etc.  But I 'am' surprised the the results seem to be showing that 'generally speaking', we're relatively alike.  We're the same type of cat basically, and I find that to be almost incredible.  Maybe I shouldn't be so surprised.

    Anyway, thank you so much for going to the trouble to pull all that info together.  You won't pay for your own drinks in here ever again.

    ReplyDelete
  111. hey thanks AR. for Corona AND compliment! and agree with your assessment of the "certain kind of person."

     It was fun. I love thinking about weird stuff and what-ifs. psychology has always interested me too. i did forget to point out that even among the extraverts, the NT was also dominant. intuition and thinking.

    So yeah, introverted doesn't mean you're shy or anything. People can mistake me for an extravert because I am friendly and "can" be talkative, but I actually prefer small groups or being by myself. I'll go to a large party on occasion but I don't arrive early and I am not the last one to leave. Couple of hours is all I am good for before I need to get away.

    heehee, now i wonder what astrological sign everyone is and if there is a predominant one?

    ReplyDelete
  112.  i took this test http://similarminds.com/cgi-bin/mbpref.pl as it's a little different and longer
    and came up an INTJ instead of an INFJ. that kind of makes sense because on all the other tests my "F" and "T" are pretty close percentage-wise. The I, T, and J are always consistent thought.

    ReplyDelete
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