Friday, July 27, 2012

Hindenburg Omen - Finally Back Online


Today would be a great day to bring everyone up to speed on what's been happening on the Hindenburg Omen front lately.  Obviously you can see that this blog had gone very quiet on that topic and the main reason for that is that as of May 3rd the Hindenburg Omen has been out of commission due to a rule violation.  It's a rule which for 27 years has been absolutely cast in stone... an absolute MUST in accordance with the rules set out by the inventor of the HO, Mr. Jim Meikka.

IMPORTANT UPDATE AT BOTTOM:

I realize that there have been several stories lately stating that the HO "has gone off".  But unless there has been a rule change regarding the requirement that the 50 day MA on the NYSE "must be rising", there is simply no way that any recent report of an HO signal can be accurate.  To the best of my knowledge, the last time the HO issued a signal was in August of 2010.  I say this with all due respect to those who have reported an HO signal recently because it is possible that Mr. Meikka changed a rule that has been in place since day one of the HO's very existence, but I didn't get the memo.  That's possible... and if that's the case then I am behind the curve.  Until today I had made every effort to ensure that I was "ahead of the curve" regarding the HO rules.  Otherwise I'd just be your everyday friendly reporter with inaccurate data.  And if that was the case I wouldn't even bother writing 10 keystrokes about it.


NYSE Daily - A chart specifically designed to monitor the moving average.  Click here for a live and updating version.

I do know with certainty though, that there are some sites who are still using the rules of 10 years ago, totally unaware of two very important changes that Mr. Meikka made a couple of years back to adjust for the relatively higher number of ETFs and bond funds.  Those changes absolutely 'did' prevent a couple of signals that I know of.  In any case, in order to attempt to clarify the possibility that I have missed an important adjustment by Mr. Meikka, I have sent an email off to Mr. Arthur Hill after reading his report at StockCharts, in an attempt to find out if he can enlighten me about that change.  [I was only informed of Mr. Hill's article yesterday.]  I'd get in contact with Mr. Meikka himself if I could but to date I haven't discovered how to contact him.  I seriously doubt he has changed this rule though since it's so germane to the entire workings of the HO.  But I'm just as fallible as the next guy... I might be wrong.  Mr. Hill is a very credible analyst so to be honest I'm not willing to just disregard his findings.  But until I get some sort of verification that Mr. Meikka has changed this rule... I have to surmise that there has been no HO signal since August of 2010.  As I said though, I stand to be corrected if necessary.

In any event, as of the close yesterday, that's all a moot point now since the 50 day moving average on the NYA (NYSE) has turned higher.  So as of this morning the Hindenburg Omen is back online and able issue an alert.  And judging by the price action of 10 weeks ago, it isn't likely the HO will be switched off in the immediate future.  It makes perfectly good sense too, that the HO "should be" switching on and off as it gets near to issuing a signal.  After all, what the HO issues warning about is an imminent decline.  One would think that would happen near a market top, right?  And what else happens at a market top?  The 50 day moving average rolls over!  So obviously there's a fairly narrow window within which the HO can raise the flag.  In that regard, the HO is very much like a television that's on its final legs.  It first begins to flicker, then it issues an important alert, then it breaks down altogether.  Once the HO has issued its signal accurately and the market rolls lower, and it the 50 day MA rolls over with it as it should, the HO is immediately rendered "dead".  But it has done its job.

But regarding those who don't really care about the official rules, as I described to my good friend Pebblewriter in a recent comment: "It's similar to watching a TV that isn't plugged in. If it's not plugged in we're not gonna get a signal. But somehow some of the analysts out there are able to sit back and watch the HO that's not plugged in and by some form of magic get some kind of entertaining "Urgent News Alert" out of it. That's quite the talent isn't it?"  When I made that statement, I was envisioning one site in particular which is no longer even in existence where the author was just chomping at the bit to "be the first" to make the announcement.  It always amuses me to see who's going to be first and then who else takes the bait and jumps on that bandwagon.  Even ZH has reported HO signals when the TV wasn't even plugged in.  So my entire purpose in running a blog at Seeking Alpha that has been dedicated solely to the HO topic for nearly three years now was to provide "accurate" signals for my friends over there.  And of course... I also brought the topic over here when I started this blog a half year ago.

UPDATE: Only moments after having published this article, the mystery has been solved.  I just got of the phone with Tom McClellan and he informs me that there has been no rule change and that my understanding of the rules is correct.  Unfortunately (or fortunately), Mr. McClellan confirms that my suspicion that Mr. Hill 'misinterpreted' the rules is indeed correct.  In no way do I mean to disparage Mr. Hill either.  He's a stud of an analyst for whom I have a great deal of respect.  It's just one of those innocent things.

So stay tuned... yesterday the number of new 52 week highs and 52 week lows were right in the ballpark for an HO signal.  And now that it's "back online" any signal in the coming days "will be" accurate.  Let's just sit back and see what happens now.


Meanwhile, how about a little Joe Cocker?  Live in Berlin.



...

143 comments:

  1. By the way friends, if you haven't yet seen today's post by Pretzel Logic, and if you're a fan or a student of EWT you just gotta see it.  This guy just keeps putting out incredibly good vision.  And even though he's a long term bear at heart, somehow he can control that bias and just report the possibilities as he sees them.  Personally I'm unable to do that and most likely so are you.  We have to admit it too, that has cost us big time.  That's reason alone to read his post every day... at least for me it sure as heck is.  And I do!

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  2. Thanks AR for the great information.  By the way, I like your writing style.

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  3. yup the 19 ema 39 ema rules again. all are pointing up / getccha some gluck...

    http://scharts.co/QOGZ0k

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  4. see ur a yakker. me too....gitterdone

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  5. You're welcome JBB and thanks for the kind words.  In all honesty, three years ago I didn't even know I could write.  People over at Seeking Alpha started saying similar things as what you just said and encouraged me to start writing articles.  For two years I refused to do so, thinking they were imagining things.  But I finally wrote a few pieces and found that they were well accepted.  So I just took one step at a time from there, lol.

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  6. http://sudburybullandbear.wordpress.com/about/

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  7.  AR - agree on Pretzel - thanks for pointing me in that direction a while ago, he is hands down the best I've seen

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  8. Okay, so *at this point*, to clarify, what would need to happen from our SPX 1386 / NYA 7912 close today for a Hindenburg signal to be issued, since we're obviously still above the 50-day MA and the signal's still valid?

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  9. Again, it's not the fact that the price is "above the 50 day" but the fact that the 50 day is pointing higher.  Regardless,  now that the HO is back online the market (NYSE) has to generate the correct number of new 52 week highs and 52 week lows "at the same time".  That's the key, although there are other criteria that need to be in place as well at the time.  I think I've gone over all the requirements about 350 times on the Seeking Alpha thread over the past 3 years but you might want to check the last HO article posted on "this site".  You can find that here.

    Have a great weekend :-)

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  10. i luv bloggin. trend is up . dont short. may have missed the up move. wait for dip. dont listen to permabear katzo. he lies about his entries and exits. been short for 3 years he is brokey broke. gluckie

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  11. Cool Update - Thanks
    Another Very Accurate BLOG that just recently turned BEARISH - Time for CASH IN folks

    http://bullbeartrendlines.blogspot.com
     

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  12. You're welcome Todum.  Thanks for that link as well.  I hadn't heard of that site but I like it.  They've got some good info over there, they're Canadian which gives me reason to want to talk with them, and I "love" their address, Maple Ridge, B.C.  Home of Larry Walker, lol.

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  13. This is worth watching very closely as it could be one of the earliest of the early warning indicators. In theory it is supposed to warn of extreme internal weakness in the face of seemingly external strength, correct?

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  14. good to have you back to posting, AR. A bear can only hibernate for so long. 
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZZeljR0HXY

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  15. Correct.  In fact there's no "theory" about it.  What it shows beyond debate is a rare extreme where the number of new 52 week highs and new 52 week lows are approximately equal, while both being low numbers and at the same time.  It shows a market that is very polarized while the market is still rising.  Not a good sign for a bull market to say the least.

    "This is worth watching very closely"

    Yes, which is why I've been running a blog that is dedicated solely to the topic of the Hindenburg Omen for nearly three straight years now on Seeking Alpha.

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  16.  Yes I have seen what you have here. What I wasn't aware of was the Seeking Alpha blog and I need to check that out. I've been having problems posting and was actually trying to say more but couldn't.

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  17.  See my comments on http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com.es/ for more on that.

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  18.  Really weird. Can't post on Ticker Forum and another non-Disqus blog either. Other than very short posts - one liners basically. But I can post whatever I want on my blog. 2 different computers.

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  19. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-01tu0dZ2jks/UBT2dFHC4xI/AAAAAAAAACw/IXDmXCDOyeI/s1600/error.jpg

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  20. No image uploading either, here or ImageShack or anywhere Disqus. I can only upload images on my blog. The image above was posted on my blog.

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  21.  And it goes without saying that it I could, I'd post all of the above in the same comment, but I can't! It's as though I was working with Twitter!

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  22.  Sometimes I can add using Edit, and sometimes I can't. I can't edit the spelling error above, because this time it won't let me do even that.

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  23. Really strange
    stuff. I could login to Blogger and Disqus, but not my e-mail account. I could
    post on my blog, but nowhere else. Windows Update was also giving me error
    messages. After eliminating the virus possibility, I had the laptop all backed
    up and ready to format and reinstall (can’t tell you how much I was looking
    forward to that) and in bringing the desktop up to speed (just sits there most of the time
    all pretty and all), I noticed that I had the same problems. The
    exact same problems. So I started looking around inside the router and found nothing
    out of the ordinary, but I rebooted anyway, and voilà, issue resolved. (BTW, it
    was Windows Update’s suggested troubleshooting that got me going in that
    direction: look at your firewall settings, danger Will Robinson, firewall
    settings – even though there was nothing out of the norm or changes made there
    . . .)

     


    You can’t
    get any stupider than that. I should have rebooted the router to begin with,
    but since the issue was somewhat random where some things worked and others
    didn’t, and the laptop has been giving me sporadic problems anyway, and, ah
    hell, I should have known better as I have seen even stranger things with
    information “technology”. And I couldn’t for the life of me begin to explain
    what it was about the router that was blocking access to some things and not
    others. I feel like giving it a summary execution. LOL


     


    Think I’m
    going to format the laptop anyway now that I’ve gotten this far. It’s time it’s
    had a bath.

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  24.  http://chartramblings.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/this-article-is-as-interesting-for.html

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  25. new to your blog, nice job!  Spend some time on Daneric's blog, wow is all I have to say.  This soul jester guy on Daneric's blog is the most need little bitch I've ever seen, he was dissing you something horrible a few weeks back, what a douche!  Can't stand that place anymore, just a bunch of doomers calling p3 every day for the last 4 years, sickening really. Looking forward to your posts!

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  26. I forgot to mention, this soul jester dude has been bragging he's called the market for 100 spx points.  What's really funny is he's been wrong for nearly 4 years calling crashes nearly every day but now that he's gotten lucky and finally made some money he's the self proclaimed oracle, more than likely just a kid paper trading...lol  Can't believe the way he talked about you on that blog, no real trader talks like that IMO..

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  27. You know, by clinging to the "it's a four with a five to come" count, I was kind of painting a best case scenario, with a big Intermediate or Minor degree wave 2 rally yet to come (after one more leg down) before a major 3 wave plunge down.

    The markets appear to be challenging that count, and those who had this as a wave 2 up may turn out to be right. And that means the next downward plunge is that 3. A plunge like that coming or starting before the elections will throw a lot of social mood turmoil into that mix.

    The "it's a 4" count is still alive on the GDOW, but with the action on all the other indexes, I'm getting a bit wobbly on it. If the GDOW breaks 1895, then the count is definitely busted and a setup for a huge 3 down plunge is in place.

    The far-fetched alternate count is that the P2 top isn't yet in. I just don't see how it's possible to reach that organically, given the current state of things. It's on the table, though.

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  28. Bears are hungry..after a 2 month slumber.

    Its time to go hunting.

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  29.  The far-fetched alternate count is that the P2 top isn't yet in. I just
    don't see how it's possible to reach that organically, given the current
    state of things. It's on the table, though.
    ---

    Yeah, I see the sp'1500/1600 chart forecasts out there for spring 2013. I could see that with QE3 of 750/1000bn, but..the underlying economy is bad.

    My own nation - the UK, has now had its third quarter of recession. Great huh? The wider EU is in recession, Japan is in deep recession, and the US now has official growth of just 1.5%.

    It really won't take much to push it all over a cliff.

    Maybe the central bankers can kick the can into 2013..but right now that can is so very brittle. Another kick might actually break the can into a million pieces. A strange thing to say, maybe, but yes, maybe the next QE might be the actual trigger for the next phase of what remains a 5-10 year financial system collapse.
    -

    From what I've read lately, it does seem many are looking for 'trouble' in September. One thing is for sure, it won't be boring.

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  30. Yup, it's all just so surreal that I hardly know what to say about it.  And yet the majority of people who still have relatively good jobs (like all the people working in the oil industry here) are literally oblivious to it all.  I'm not kidding, the people up in the oil patch, those who are actually getting their hands dirty drilling for oil, making $8000 per month, are happy as larks thinking the good times are going to just keep going on forever.  It just blows my mind how they're not even willing to listen to 'any' talk about the possibility of oil falling in price in a deflationary scenario.  Yet I think that deep down the everyday guy on the street has a sense that something is really, really bad.  They just don't have a clue what caused it though and how bad things are going to get once it starts to resolve the only way it can.

    And wouldn't it be ironic if, like you suggest, the announcement of another great big issuance of QE was the catalyst for the final total collapse.  And you might be right because it might be at that point when the world finally says "Ok, that's it, the US is just going to print money forever.  We don't want anything to do with US currency any more".  Rates would start to rise almost instantly as current holders of US bonds might start to dump them at a rate ten times as fast as the FED's new QE could possibly afford to buy them.  Rates going through the roof while the economy collapses.  Just what the world doesn't need... at the worst possible time... soaring rates.  Maybe you're suggestion is bang on the money.  It could happen.

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  31.  Do you remember the time when the first QE was announced, the mainstream were ecstatic. At the same time of course, a few realised that one QE would never be it....so..we had posts of QE2..3, ..

    Took a year for the mainstream to even begin to accept the notion that QE2 might even happen. Then there was op-twist of course.

    Now..everyone is agreed QE3 is coming, not that the mainstream would ever dare mention the subsequent 4, 5, 6, 7.....


    Although of course, I think things will implode well before we even get to 5.  I realise Japan  has been at it for 20 years, but they were doing it BEFORE the financial system hit the wall.
    --

    The bigger picture remains the most interesting aspect of all this. The actual day to day moves in market land..all nonsense of course.

    I just wonder, how many VIX calls should I start stacking in anticipation of 'trouble' in the Autumn.

    --
    ps. good morning AR ;)

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  32. Lol... thanks.  And good afternoon to you over there in Olympics land.  Do you realize that you live closer to Newfoundland than I do?  Yup, I'm so far over on the western side of Canada that you're actually 200 miles closer to the east coast of Canada than I am.  Amazing!  People probably think of western Canada like we think of Siberia.  But man, I wouldn't trade the beauty around here for all the gold in Russia.  Besides, there's probably more gold in B.C. alone than in Russia anyway, lol.

    One area where I totally missed the boat was that I didn't realize that all the QE would end up in the equity markets.  Other people clearly knew that would happen but I admit I didn't.  After all, theoretically that's not what QE was meant for.  It was meant to prop up the banks, save their sorry asses, and to prop up the bond markets.  But I didn't realize that since it only took one or two subsequent steps for all that money to end up in the hands of the banking criminals that they would use it wisely and improve their own balance sheets, they did the opposite and went on another wild gambling ("gambling" = "manipulating") spree, feeding it directly into equities.  Less though, with each subsequent issuance of QE.

    Yeah, I have no doubt more QE is coming.  But not right now because there's nothing to justify it.  Why would they need QE when the equities markets are booming and the economic news is being spun as if the economy was great?  If the plan is to allow the markets to tank in order to provide a 'justification' for more QE, they're running out of time unless they also plan to sacrifice Obama.  God forbid, because the other candidates are have to be the worst group of misfit retards ever assembled.  The American people are going to lose either way... as far as "who will be" the next president is concerned.  But on the day Obama was elected I declared loudly that it was my opinion that he was being set up as the fall guy.  Maybe that's the case after all, and if so, the markets have a green light to tank right now and all the way into the election.  That would pretty much prove my theory correct, lol.

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  33. I kinda hope his highness wins again. I want Obama to get the blame - and be remembered for what he chose to do...siding with the corrupt banksters..and then sending the invoice to the American people.

    Obama had a choice..and he sure as hell made it himself.
    ---

    look to the chicago PMI at 9.45am..it might be sub'50, in which case we might actually get a major down day...but then the talk with of course shift to the 'coming QE'.

    urghhhhhhhhhhh

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  34. Well maybe if the market drop 20% between now and November he 'will' be blamed.  In any case, I'm with you on that sentiment... I want him to be recognized for having sided with the banksters.  Mind you, what else is new?  The last president who didn't side with them was John Kennedy.

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  35.  yeah..and we saw what happened to him.

    Back..and to the left.....back..and to the left.
    ---

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  36. Haha... today ended up being perhaps one of the best examples ever of how APPLE influences the NDX.  The NAZ 100 ended the day higher by 0.02%.  Had APPLE just done the same thing, then the entire NDX would have ended up lower by [color=#FF0000]0.43%[/color] instead of higher by [color=#32CD32]0.02%[/color].  IOW, the entire day's action in the NDX was due to the outperformance of APPLE and not much else.  Nothing else mattered.

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  37. And this stubborn ol' diagonal count just won't get off the table.

    http://i.imgur.com/ibVpA.jpg

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  38. Thanks for the reminder.  You remember the piece I wrote called ""Exponential Decay", right?  And here's the main chart from that piece.  Notice how the cycles study pinpointed this week as being a cycle turning point.  When I wrote that article, I assumed it was pointing to a bottom, which is why the "exponential decay" arrow ended up being placed where it  was.  Now all we have to do is to slide it over so that it starts downward right now, and it ends up matching your chart.  How cool is that?

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  39. And thank you for that chart reminder!

    I've been fumbling with something like this for a little while, but it doesn't seem to agree with much else that's out there.  Except it could dovetail very nicely with the cycle you've identified.

    As admitted after reading your 4th of July piece, I'm still completely gunshy about expecting non-extended waves as the norm.  In that vein, the June/July running triangle interpretation also has my attention.  If that's the more appropriate count, it would seem, to me anyway, that looking for an imminent turn is premature (pattern or timewise, even if not necessarily in price terms since the thrust targets ~1395)...for whatever that's worth...

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  40. I tell you AR, living on Vancouver Island is so relaxing. It's also great for the mind. You should give it a shot.

    You are definitely onto some great insights on the market, keep it up.

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  41. Very cool. And to my eye it looks even more symmetrical that way.

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  42. I don't think I know you 105, but are you a mind reader by chance?  My sister lives on that island and I just love it there.  I love my sister too, lol.  Yes, I would love to live there and I might be able to pull it off in a year or two.

    Thanks for the kind words.  Stay tuned because the Hindenburg Omen is very close to issuing a signal today.  And it would be the first "real" signal since August of 2010.  I'll be publishing an article (it's already written), the minute it goes off.

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  43. I is a blogger! I've been reluctant to take the plunge, but I figured maybe I could keep my brain farts short enough to make the process low maintenance. Everybody's welcome of course. AR, excuse the pimping, please.  :) I've already got you whitelisted over there, btw. And Disqus commenting is activated.

    I'll try it out for a while and see how it all goes.

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  44. trustee-beneficiary-executorAugust 3, 2012 at 12:34 AM

    Hah no, I just read often and post little. Trying to find the gems in the comments section which are always clouded by certain nefarious characters.

    I read Harvey Organ's blog daily, and you wouldn't believe his comments section (it's trolled harder than a bridge in Enchanted Forest)! Anyways I wanted to give you a thumbs up in the midst all the hardcore trolling that seems to be happening all across the universe right now.

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  45. Much appreciated.  Yes, the trolling I'm seeing out there is just unbelievable.  It literally ruins some blogs.  I actually started this blog just so get away from it because some blog owners just let it go as if it wasn't offensive or damaging.  It's irresponsible bog owners who are actually the reasons trolls even exist.  I can and will ban the worst offenders for life on my own site just so that we can have a clean working office where we can actually get things done.  So far I've only had to ban a couple of trolls who should actually be behind bars, and the rest seem to have gotten the message. 

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  46. yup.  we got the ema crossed and moving up with 50 day. trend is up and a friend. ...

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

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  47. Very awesome chart Monsieur AR ... nice to see you again!
    The plunge feels imminent ... but this stop-chewing chop stuff is making my nerves fried ... will sit out until we get some confirmation.

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  48. I think the massive trolling at Daneric's is actually telling us the high for minor 2 or whatever is VERY CLOSE.  Now they have been stuffing it with hundreds of pages of garbage to keep everyone from getting to any nuggets that might be there.  And pissing of those that do provide those nuggets ... It's just about completely destroyed.  I'm convinced the trolls are paid to do that by big hedge funds or banks that have piles of equities and australian dollars to unload, and do NOT want their potential bag holders to be informed about the odds of turn dates and market crashes being very high.

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  49.  Im begining to think the same Greg .Nobodycould really be as stupid/insane as Wagner seems to be. Could they ? Lol. I realise this makes me a conspiracy theorist .Gulp.

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  50. I, on the other hand, subscribe to the birds of a feather theory. ;-)

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  51. It could also be a low, and/or the first decline may be the equivalent of one of your white arrow declines (like I said in my original comment on this study http://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.com.es/2012/06/russell-is-tattletale.html#comment-548666685 )

    I posted a write up this morning with a few arguments supporting more imminent upside.

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  52. Greg, CR and HR... that activity over there is an absolute disgrace.  I'd literally be trying to find a rock to crawl under if that was going on here.  One particular asshole will now accuse me of trashing Danno for having said that.  But it's the truth isn't it?  Because that kind of activity pretty much happens "only" over there.  There's a reason for that.  The reason is "because it is permitted".  By pointing that out, I'm not dismissing Danno's fine work or even his lackluster personality.   I'm just pointing out the indisputable fact... that mind-numbing shit that goes on over there goes on because it is permitted.  End of argument.  Otherwise I assure you, it would be happening here.  But it is not permitted here.  Case closed.  Let me give you a prime example:

    On July 27th somebody going by the name of "jimmy bigtime" came here, complimented me on the blog, claiming he was "new to the blog" (which was true insofar as that he'd never commented here before) but implying that perhaps he'd never seen this blog before.  He then commenced to tie into Soul Jester, bashing the living shit out of him.  There was no other reason he came here but to bash SJ, knowing I'm not particularly pleased with him.  Jimmy bigtime then posted a second comment adding something to the effect, "oh, I  for got to add" more bashing of SJ.

    Those two comments were diametrically opposed to the types of comments that are welcome here.  Even though I might not be pleased with SJ, perhaps even infuriated at him for coming here and accusing "me" of manipulating my readers, I still will not permit some jerk from North Dakota (yes, that's where Jimmy Bigtime is from, so we pretty much know who it is) to come here and leave a comments here that would be perfectly suitable for Daneric's blog.  Needless to say, those two comments didn't last long on this site and Jimmy Bigtime has never come back.  I haven't banned him, but I will if he does that again.  People who come here to cause trouble know what the consequences are going to be.  That's the reason this blog remains clean and the trolls know it.  If it's true that they're being paid to destroy Danno's blog, it would be one of the easiest jobs a person could get.  Good luck to them though trying to destroy this one.  Mind you, they have no reason to... they don't get the big audience here that they crave.

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  53. Seriously ... there has to be something fueling all that energy, what is his motive?  If there's money involved, that would do it.  And there are reasons people would pay money for that.  So, it is plausible.  And interesting it's ramped up now.  In August.  At these levels of retrace.  Near ends of many minor 2 counts.  Suspicious.

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  54. If Daneric is permitting it for short term gain of increased traffic (as the trolls suggest), he'll pay a price long term when traffic is reduced to nothing.  Many have left.  Most have left even.

    Anyway, noce to hear you again bud.

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  55. I've been updating the blog over at Seeking Alpha regarding the Hindenburg Omen for anyone who's interested.  Despite prior claims last week and in the weeks before, the HO HAS NOT gone off since August of 2010.  I know this with 100% certainty having had a telephone conversation with Tom McClellan two weeks ago to confirm that fact.  If anybody can confirm that I have all the rules correct it would be Mr. McClellan since it's his own indicator, the McClellan Oscillator (NYMO), that is an integral part of the HO's inner workings.  He knows Jim Meikka personally and Mr. Meikka has not changed any rules.  The "false reporters" just don't know how to read rules.  They're misinterpreting one of them, giving them the green light to issue false reports that the HO has gone off.  It hasn't.

    I have an article already written for the day the HO goes off and it will be published here as soon as it happens... as soon as I can "confirm it".  Perhaps after the close on that day... maybe during the day... depending on what the numbers are when it goes off.

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  56. Thanks for the update, AR. With every index and theoretician out there showing a different potential count and several possibilities, EW isn't much help right now. Any indicator as to what might be going on (or going down) is appreciated.

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  57. Speaking of moving averages, the 80/10, Bulltart's fave, has an interesting history.

    http://i.imgur.com/yW9Gx.jpg

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  58. Haha... are you hiding in my office or something?  I was just investigating that this morning.  Both those averages are climbing as you know but with the last 10 weeks in the markets having been up weeks, it wouldn't take much to turn the 10 week lower perhaps a month from now.  In my chart, the only difference is that I don't use Bulltart's 80 week but I use the 65 instead, simply because it's shorter than the 80 and it behaved nearly the same.
    Bulltart's 10/65 week MA.  I still like to give Bulltart credit for this topic :-)

    ReplyDelete
  59. What is a shill?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shill

    ReplyDelete
  60. Hey good to see you again DL!
    And I just learned a new word ... that does seem to fit.

    ReplyDelete
  61. You can say that again ... there are certainly various counts out there.
    Here's one count on the AUDUSD ... the daily is basically from Darkest Knight. The hourly has a megaphone top to finish minor 2.  DK has something similar for the last wiggle (a wedge with a final c poking up to finish the minor 2).  Those corrective overlapping waves could probably be labeled lots of ways. 

    ReplyDelete
  62. Thanks Greg... I was traveling, up into Alberta, and then went on a hiatus from trading.

    Now I'm simply lurking....lol

    I see you are still active and posting great thoughts. Good to see AR has kept up the good work of keeping his blog going. Love his HO work.

    Great to see you here too Greg!

    ReplyDelete
  63. I'm almost as confused as to why Mr Daneric allows that nonsense, as I am about the US equity market.
    ---

    I just don't get it. If he gave 5-10 of the regulars mod status, and maybe 1 or 2 other changes, it'd be reigned in.
    -
    I did even dare suggest that Daneric might also be Wags.

    Its a strange world...maybe I'm right ?

    ReplyDelete
  64. How could it be about increased traffic. Its only 1 or 2 people at the most.

    At most, any visitor might generate 0.1 cents a day in page ad revenue.

    No, it ain't about traffic, It just makes no sense.

    Who is Daneric anyway? I mean, I've really no idea. Is he some young guy, or old dude in an armchair who wouldn't even care anyway about the secondary comments section?

    Serious question!

    ReplyDelete
  65. re: as stupid?

    Err, yeah, there are plenty of those out there.

    Disturbingly, most of them have the right to vote, own guns, and are work in the public sector.

    ReplyDelete
  66.  Indeed, its why I only post 427 times a day.

    ReplyDelete
  67. Thanks!  And I well remember your trip seeing the picturesque parts of Canada as it sounded so beautiful.  We've missed you ... but a hiatus from trading can be good for the soul, and for achieving a tranquil mind (Mr. Elliott himself recommended that as a prerequisite for successful trading).  Which will help when you return to trading!  You didn't miss much :).  Yet. 

    ReplyDelete
  68. The Aussie/Yen looks pretty much picture perfect with a 61.8 retrace. Could it turn out to have a really clear read on the waves right now? We'll see.

    http://i.imgur.com/QhwPg.jpg

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  69. Lol... yeah but they're all high quality comments PD.

    ReplyDelete
  70. Hey, nice, thanks!  That is a nice clear 5-waver and 3-waver and nearly 61.8% retrace. 
    We are very close ...

    ReplyDelete
  71. Just a hunch ... but if it were based on number of comments, and one guy generates 300 a day ... that might be worth something significant.  One guy with 15 aliases so it looks like lots of different people.

    I think Daneric does't care about the comments section. 

    ReplyDelete
  72. trustee-beneficiary-executorAugust 6, 2012 at 3:49 AM

    I agree, Dan's just too much of an alpha male to care about anything other than living his life and EWing ;).

    The only thing that creeps me out is that SJ occasionally posts good material, yet he trashed AR's name at every opportunity. Implies he is one of "them".

    ReplyDelete
  73. trustee-beneficiary-executorAugust 6, 2012 at 3:55 AM

    I know what you mean, we are close to the "bear panic scare" that would allow the ECB to print, Obama to walk away from his "we need to cut the deficit", maybe even something that would remove JPM's exposure to a silver price rise.

    ReplyDelete
  74. trustee-beneficiary-executorAugust 6, 2012 at 3:59 AM

    Here's an old picture from M3 (
    http://m3financialsense.blogspot.ca ), one of the deadliest TA blogs i've found, but the dude has been hibernating for a month now, unfortunately

    ReplyDelete
  75. Today was interesting. Everyone catch the AUD/JPY signalling and leading that late-day drop? Impressive.

    ReplyDelete
  76. Yes, I commented on that on Pretzel's.  But the people over there were more focused on the Euro so I don't think the majority of them caught my meaning.  I didn't specify the Aussie:Yen, I only said "currencies are not supporting stocks being up here at all".  Most people 'still' watch nearly every currency and currency pair "except" the one that has the closest correlation with equities.  I've stopped even talking about it because people just don't want to accept it for some reason.  If they only grasped "why" the Aussie:Yen is the best measure of the currency carry trade out there.  The Euro relationship with American equities is based on something totally and completely different... basically the collapse of Europe.  That's not the currency carry trade, but of course that is an enormously big factor as well.  I don't mean to dismiss it at all.  It's just that the correlation with equities just isn't as good as with "the best".

    ReplyDelete
  77. Insanity. But all the indexes indicate it's organic. And if this is organic, it proves social mood is one of the most irrational forces of nature around: If the wave is up, it will go up no matter what the surrounding reality is. And so the inverse is also true---when the wave is down, it will go down no matter how bright and sunshiny reality is.

    The GDOW is only 15 points from invalidating that wave 4 count I've been hanging onto. If it reaches 1896, then I'll join the ABC correction up crowd, and look for a very large wave 3 down (of whatever degree) to follow. That count is not good for the rest of the year, by the way (at a minimum). And it flies in the face of the traditional expectations of election year and Santa rallies. But it is what it is. We'll see what unfolds.

    ReplyDelete
  78. Since I thought of his Nov-Dec 2011 triangle count while looking at this, I was going post this over at Pretzel's, but it isn't worth enduring yet another registration process.  Thought it might also be enjoyed here though.  There are good reasons to object to either structure being called an Elliott triangle proper, but whatever representational symbols or names we decide to give them, they sure do have some striking similarity...

    ReplyDelete
  79. As I have it marked, the AUD/JPY overshot the 61.8 retrace by 0.014.  Still close enough. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  80. bros they market goes fro they gap up brohs!

    ReplyDelete
  81. Hey AR
    thought you might appreciate update of possible final run for AUDJPY
    http://screencast.com/t/2Sl3ZwbNz

    cheers Amigo
    DK

    ReplyDelete
  82. sees if this sticks -bit more to go?
    http://screencast.com/t/2Sl3ZwbNz

    ReplyDelete
  83. EURAUD
    http://screencast.com/t/UucmN7Mw

    ReplyDelete
  84. That's a good-looking count.

    ReplyDelete
  85. You bet... I appreciate that Amigo.  I watch that currency pair throughout every single day and I also watch the Aussie as a standalone currency.  You're far better than I am at making any sense out of the waves on that monster so I really do appreciate your take on it.  One thing though... the Aussie dollar is on a moonshot of it's own and until the recent rising trend line is broken we have to consider that currency as super bullish.  The rally is getting long in the tooth probably, but until that trend line breaks... she's headed up.

    Thanks bud :-)

    ReplyDelete
  86. AUDJPY flying today on the back of yen weakness (USDJPY)
    AUDUSD doin nothing yet..getting tired now?

    ReplyDelete
  87. I think the Yen is in a wave 4 and about to scoot higher.

    ReplyDelete
  88. Lowest 4-Day Volume in 5 Years
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/stocksmustclosegreen-lowest-4-day-volume-5-years 

    poor volume, listless equities, junk bonds rolling over http://www.zerohedge.com/news/volumeless-equities-limp-along-risky-debt-rolls-over-fourth-day 

    ReplyDelete
  89. AUDJPY
    final wedge?
    http://screencast.com/t/aVK7Rsqla

    ReplyDelete
  90. half an eye on USDJPY
    just finishing off (4) on 4hrly
    once that cracks lower in to (5), AUDJPY a gonner

    ReplyDelete
  91. I dunno bro... the Aussie:Yen is tanking pretty good right now.  I'm wondering if maybe it's run is over for now.

    ReplyDelete
  92. I agree it's a gonner.
    just mean when USDJPY heads south it's even gonnerer.
    next stop 50 lol
    you get some sleep
    methinks bulls gonna wake up with sore head

    ReplyDelete
  93. Yeah I think I'm gonna be very short by time trading ends tomorrow.  We'll see, but I think I'm going to be seeing the signals I'm comfortable with.

    ReplyDelete
  94. not yet- still at work!

    ReplyDelete
  95. Just watched the vid -Alberta certainly DOES rock! ( & BC is similar, right?)
    so beautifully shot 
    I mentioned I was in Tasmania recently and that is Australia's outdoor wilderness - magnificent scenery...but Canada much bigger scale, which would add to the beauty. I've often wondered what it is about natural beauty that makes us feel good inside- I guess it's some innate spirituality where we still have a primitive connection with our world. Unfortunately for most of us city dwellers, it's something we are losing and forget the calming and inspirational effect of nature at it's finest. (and those babes in the sled too, lol)
    I've travelled all through USA and always loved the big skies& sheer scale of itit's great that you're so proud of your spot on the planet. I've lived in several different countries, and Australia has been my home for the last 8 years (I'm a Brit, married an aussie sheila).
    I've never had that feeling of feeling proud of my home country - Australia is a great place, but I'll probably always be renting it. Should be different for my kids though (except if they become cricketers- I told my wife they can play for Australia only if they can't get in to the England team,lol)
    See ya manana dude
    DK

    ReplyDelete
  96. Yeah, B.C. is similar but in other ways it's even better.  I don't think it's any prettier than the west edge of Alberta, but the interior valley of B.C. is in between mountain ranges so it has a much warmer climate in the summer.  so it also has a better growing season and lakes... huge beautiful lakes surrounded by orchards, wineries and forests.  Talk about a boater's paradise.  Talk about a wino's paradise.

    I kind of doubt you saw those pictures I posted of my childhood haunt.  You can see them at the bottom of this post.  Waterton is where I used to hang out when I was a little kid.  I hear ya bro... scenes like this just make a person feel good inside.  Natural beauty is indeed spiritual and to live right inside it is pretty darned good for the soul alright.

    For sure the USA has some gorgeous areas too.  B.C. is a lot like Washington State and Alberta is a lot like Montana.  Except that B.C. and Alberta are both about the size of Texas.  I've heard Tazmania is gorgeous.  One of my brother's sisters-in-law married a guy from there.  A great guy.  Yeah I guess the scale of the scenery between Taz and Alberta would be about the only difference.  For example those mountains in the videos run another 1000 miles to the north and another 1000 miles south, down into the USA.  But it's more or less accepted that the mountains of Alberta are just about the most 'ruggedly' beautiful of the bunch.  And the foothills on the east side of the Alberta mountains, where the prairie meets the mountains, are just stunning.  To be honest I don't think it gets any more beautiful than that... anywhere.  That's where Waterton is.

    Yeah, I'm blessed in that I truly do love the place where I'm from.  I just want to get out of the big city though and move back into the real beauty that is found everywhere 'else' around here.  I can see the mountains in the distance by just looking out my windows, but it's not the same thing.  I want to breathe them if you know what I mean.  I want to be there.

    I'll be watching for your kids somewhere in the British cricketing circuit.  All the best.

    ReplyDelete
  97.   Update from Darkest Knight (he cannot post and asked me to post this)


     AUD ALERT - Da Beast not dead yet!http://screencast.com/t/9OuiAr...

    ReplyDelete
  98. Thanks CR.  Did DK say why he couldn't post?  Of course he's got a green light here so I'm just wondering if he's having an issue with this site or if it's because of his location, his device or something else.

    ReplyDelete
  99. Ha -yes, turn the computer on-doh!
    no, looked like a disqus thing - had the same problem at Danno's -comments section just wouldn't load.
    seems Ok now.
    Cheers Bud
    DK

    ReplyDelete
  100.  and another...(cable)

    http://screencast.com/t/ZOBn38hNG25U

    ReplyDelete
  101. There's a relatively rare signal I look for that is appearing on the charts for the Aussie dollar.  As much as that monster seems exhausted and ready to roll over, this signal says "no, the Aussie has another burst higher in it and the measurement is to 106.80."  If it turns out that this indication is accurate, it would support the labeling drawn on both the charts that DK posted.

    ReplyDelete
  102.  http://treo.typepad.com/.a/6a0120a6002285970c0167693b7bc6970b-popup   saw this on SoH

    ReplyDelete
  103. obama wants everything rosy for the election. i would be very surprised if we have a meaningful downturn  before the election. still lined up with the moving averages

    http://scharts.co/TwLJXf

    ReplyDelete
  104. AR. Thank you for the Joe Cocker video. A little insomnia has me surfing the web in bed (a horrible habit) and now infused with a great old Joe Cocker tune that brings back so many memories. And then I learn of Waterton.... Perhaps the destination for a motorcycle trip? Thanks for the tip. I've explored the Banff Jasper route numerous times now, and it's time to expand my horizons in Canada. Up to Fort McMurray for business in Nov.

    Not trading much these days. I really need to focus and get back into it.

    Keep up the great work, and thank you again for all your great travel tips and encouragement.

    ReplyDelete
  105.  some Gann cycles and astro dates from Pete   http://mysquigglylines.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/weekly-harmonics-s-500.html

    Pete is a an ex-derivatives trader living in Ontario.He is friends with Arch Crawford and very knlowledgeable on geometry and astro stuff.

    ReplyDelete
  106. Hi DL.  I saw your post at about 4:00 a.m. and wondered "what in heck is that girl doing up at this hour?"  And then it suddenly dawned on me that I'd only gotten up myself to shut a window after hearing a great big thunderbolt.  It might have even hit me in the noggin, I'm not sure.  But I was reminded that since I was up I was only going to take a quick look at the futures... I didn't get up to read blogs.  So I took a peek at the futures and went back to sleep.

    Fort McMurray is an entirely different world than the rest of Alberta.  That's a boom town with a capital 'B'.  Things up there are so busy, so expensive, so wild with activity that it doesn't represent anything else I've ever seen before.  I haven't even been up there myself but I've been up to Peace Country (west of McMurray) and that part of the world is busy too.  I can hardly imagine what McMurray is like.  The people up there are kind of rough, tough, heavy drinking and lots of drug use.  It's so reminiscent of a typical boom town of the 1800's.   Redneck country to be sure.  That's not to disparage the innocent 'locals' though, it's the emigrant workers from all over Canada who raise all the ruckus up there.  They work hard and then play hard.  They make a ton of money every month and many of them spend it like water.  It's just nuts.  Not the type of childrens' play you're involved with either, lol.

    Yeah, Waterton is a little gem alright.  But as I mentioned it really is off the beaten path.  In a nutshell, it's not commercialized and it's a very boring place for those looking for excitement.  But that's what makes it so magic... it's just quiet and peaceful there.  And pretty.  And full of animals.  Just try to avoid Waterton on a long weekend because the kids from Lethbridge and the smaller prairie towns all go there to party it up on long weekends and totally overrun the place.  I know... I used to be one of 'em.

    Basically it's at the very southwest corner of Alberta.  In fact in those pictures, the mountain at the end of the lake is in the USA (Montana).  So the only place to go from Waterton is west (if you wanted to tour Canada some more).  If you were to head east from Waterton, you'd quickly find yourself out of the foothills and quickly onto flat boring prairie.  And that prairie runs all across the eastern 80% of Alberta, 'all of' Saskatchewan and most of Manitoba.  I mean, 500 miles of wheat fields.  It's said that there's no more boring road in the world than the drive through Saskatchewan.  Flat as a pancake too.  A guy from Saskatchewan told me once that his dog ran away and he watched the dog run for 5 days.  lol

    But if you headed west from Waterton you'd be in B.C. in about an hour via the Crowsnest Pass. [Waterton is actually a dead end.  You'd have to go back north a few miles to Pincher Creek, then you could head west.]  That would take you through some really pretty country too, including the town of Frank, famous for the Frank Slide.  In 1903 the side of Turtle Mountain broke off and slid down burying an entire town under something like 100 feet of rock.  Anyway, a journey like that is kind of the "reverse route" of going to the interior of B.C. from Jasper.  You'd like it I'm sure.

    Try to keep out of trouble in McMurray, ok?

    ReplyDelete
  107. Turtle Mountain and the Frank Slide.

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  108. You are a kind and giving man. Thank you for all your "you"!

    I know have a new motorcycle route!

    Wanna be my bitch?

    dl

    ReplyDelete
  109. Feelin Alright

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feelin'_Alright

    ReplyDelete
  110. And thank you for the Fort Mc Murray heads up.... Knowing the customer/client is everything!

    ReplyDelete
  111. Just guessing about things from out here in the hinterlands and flyover country, but interesting thing about algos and HFT trading is it seems they are programmed and controlled by people who believe the markets move on the news. Their buying and selling functions may be automatic, but it's pretty clear their sprees are launched by human beings who are reading the news and hearing the rumors and trying to front-run them. They wind up front-running each other, and that extends the moves and distort the wave counts.

    They're creating their own circlejerk mini buying frenzies, while the real retail buyers out there (the ones they supposedly are trying to front run) don't even bother to show up.

    ReplyDelete
  112. Good observation ... that sure seems to fit ... most of the big moves lately ... in currency markets too ... have seemed news related.  And fake out moves and stop runs ... centered around big announcements.  And the volume has really dried up the past 7 days on SPY.  Some are suggesting that THAT might have something to do with the Knight HFT debacle.

    ReplyDelete
  113. Hey good sir ... I just saw your count of a few days ago on AUDUSD ... that bloody wedge looked good ... i was getting lost in the squiggles.  But now it's fallen out of it on an overlapping thing.  So I'm lost again.  Had a feeling to short at 1.057 on that 61.8% retrace, but I didn't have a good feeling for a reasonable count anymore, so bailed.  SPX may have another wiggle up, but AUDUSD may be leading down. 

    ReplyDelete
  114. AUDUSD -- How about this ABC for minor 2 with an Ending Diagonal for C?

    Darkest Knight, does this break any rules?

    ReplyDelete
  115. Hey DK, I came up with this count for AUDUSD ... does it look valid to your EW eyes?
    I like they ending diagonal for C.  And some other weird waves seem to fit better in here.

    ReplyDelete
  116. And here is the zoomed in 30 minutely chart.  a wedge for iii and iv.  which would at least explain some of those 3 wavers and overlapers.

    ReplyDelete
  117. Hey very good sir ... I threw a AUDUSD count out there (down below) after wrestling with the damned thing for days (more like floundering lost) ... it would support another wave higher.  a v of c of 2 within an ending diagonal.  DK can peer-review it hopefully.

    ReplyDelete
  118. I sent it directly to the very dark knight, but here is a zoomed in version.

    ReplyDelete
  119. Expect you've already seen this 12 year old girl's analysis of the bankster system   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bx5Sc3vWefE

    ReplyDelete
  120. UsdCad    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2bwYluqtwQg/UCul6Ff6dXI/AAAAAAAAOoM/ii1MQzeWTuQ/s1600/cad.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  121. Yes, saw that a month or two back.  I find it absolutely amazing that she's got a such a good grasp on what an evil, power addicted mafia the entire global banking sector is.  At first I thought she must have an incredible memory to have been able to memorize such a great speech that her father wrote for her.  But it quickly became clear that this kid knows exactly what she's talking about.  Simply amazing.

    ReplyDelete
  122. Hi CR.  You know, that currency pair seems to hold a lot of interest for quite a few people and I just don't understand why.  The Loonie and the US dollar are such a well managed pair, between the two single largest trading partners in the world.  It's just not gonna go anywhere until and 'unless' the US dollar explodes higher.  If the US dollar tanks, the loonie will likely be managed to go down with it to the largest extent possible.  The loonie has no connection with the currency trade business so unlike the Australian dollar, it doesn't stand to take a shellacking when that circus unwinds.  But 'if' deflation ever takes hold, the loonie should get creamed as the price of all commodities drops, which of course means the American dollar is rising.  Essentially it's at par with the US right now and that's just fine with both governments too.  Neither one wants them to separate by much.  So until the US dollar gets going ('if' it ever does) I don't think the loonie is a good investment one way or the other.  In my humble opinion there are far more exciting ones out there like that insane Aussie dollar.

    ReplyDelete
  123. In spite of what I'm seeing, too shot-shy to call or even expect a wave 2 top is in. Been bit by that dog too often.

    ReplyDelete
  124.  Hi AR...I only looked at it because a lot of people were saying it was an important  risk indicator so I'll put it back on the back-burner .I do look at the Aussie quite frequently.Really just wanted to showoff my wave count :-)

    ReplyDelete
  125. "circlejerk mini buying frenzies"
    HA!  ...and I think it's fractal too...

    ReplyDelete
  126. From rules for flat corrective waves:
    "Wave B always retraces at least 90 percent of wave A." (EWP, 89)

    ReplyDelete
  127. Grave excavation commissioned; ground-breaking still pending:
    http://rationalinsolvency.com/2012/08/spx081512b.png 

    ReplyDelete
  128. Haha... don't get me wrong brother.  You're certainly entitled to look at any pair you like.  And I could be wrong too because maybe I'm biased by living inside the world of that currency pair.  I know of one particular individual who brings up that pair at least every other day, talking about it as having some virtue as an indicator.  I 'did' mention to him that there are far, far better pairs for that purpose but he still like to think it's meaningful.  I'd say that perhaps it is... as a lagging indicator only.  Personally I watch the pair that has the best 'immediate' correlation and of course by now you know which one I watch for that purpose, lol.  But watching the loonie:USD might be compared to looking at the thermostat on your wall to see what the temperature inside your oven is.  A bit of a loose relationship, lol.

    ReplyDelete
  129. You're not alone Papa.  There's only one reason this market is going up and nothing matters to them, least of all, logic.  So as long as the S&P is trading between 1390 and 1420, human beings shouldn't even be wasting their time with the stock markets.  I'm not.

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  130. Maybe when there's none of us left willing to call it, it'll have been right behind us...

    ReplyDelete
  131. I think that is how it's going to go ... when there are no shorts left to squeeze ... it can then fall ...

    ReplyDelete
  132. All of a sudden, it dawned on me that I think we had better start to pay considerable attention to what's been happening recently in the bond markets.  Ever since November of last year, the entire rally in equities was pretty much in complete defiance of falling rates (stronger bond market).  Normally when rates are falling, that means bonds are rising so equities should be falling with rates.  But since November they haven't.  The equities markets have been supported by Goldman Sacks, JPM and the rest of that den of demons until the day that bond markets caught up.  Normally it's the bond markets that dictate where equities are going, not the other way around.  But not this time.  In any case, it is what it is and now...

    ... all of a sudden rates are exploding higher with all indications suggesting they have a lot further to rise.  Rising rates would be in total support of rising equities prices.  Unfreakingbelievable, but it appears that's what might happen.  Rates are about to explode higher, meaning a ton of money will be fleeing the bond markets.  That unwind in the bond markets would surely force an absolute shitload of cash into equities.  God damn!  But hey, if that means we have to swallow our pride and make some money for a change by going long, buying TNA might be the smartest thing we've done in the past year.

    $TNX Weekly

    ReplyDelete
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