Tuesday, July 3, 2012

NYMO - Shooting Off Its Own July 4th Fireworks

Well it's the eve of another glorious birthday for the USA and we'd like to take this opportunity to wish our American brethren our most sincere best wishes for another happy and prosperous year.  In fact we hope it's even better than the last one.  God knows, it had better be.  So over the past two weeks, perhaps in celebration of another upcoming glorious chapter in the story of the United States of America, the markets have partied like there's no tomorrow (perhaps not the best choice of words) and have run up so far, so fast that suddenly we find ourselves looking at a divergence situation in the McClellan Oscillator not seen since this very weekend of last year.  Also of note is the very intriguing fact that this same time period (between the last day of June and July 4th) has marked a very important turning point in the markets for the past 3 years running (more on that below).  This short one week period produced a low in 2009, another low in 2010 and a peak in 2011.  If this same week in 2012 is going to also mark a crucial turning point in the markets, it's pretty difficult to imagine it as being a low.

In the daily chart of NYMO below we can see how this divergence has developed:

NYMO Daily - Click here for a live and updating version

Before we begin, please note that of all the market internals indicators, some are relatively quick and 'reactive' to daily market conditions and some lag the markets by a few more days.  NYMO is one of those quicker ones... it's one of the first to issue warnings.  On the other hand, the Summation Index (a derivative of NYMO) is one of the laggards, typically reacting 3 or 4 days after a major turning point.  Not always, but usually.  Ok, so now that we're clear that today's discussion is about one of the indicators that is fairly sensitive, we begin...

Of prime interest here is the fact that at the end of June, NYMO registered the highest monthly reading of all time.  Interestingly, the last time it was up in the nosebleed section like this was in May of 2004, a full year after the market low of March 2003.  It just stands to reason that after stocks have gone through a crash such as that which occurred between Aug. 2000 and 2003, perhaps as many as 90% of all stocks had been declining.  So it's natural that once a recovery takes hold, a whole lot of those 90% of stocks that had been declining suddenly begin to rise in unison.  And of course that quickly shoots the McClellan Oscillator through the roof.  The exact same effect occurs with the much esteemed Zwieg breadth thrust indicator, but from past experience I can assure you, 95% of investors I've run into simply cannot understand how a breadth thrust can happen on a mere recovery off a severe low (which can turn out 'not' to be 'the' low).  They laugh at me.  I smile politely as I quietly relieve them of their wallet.  But I digress.

So we now have to ask the questions: "Are we seeing the markets just at the verge of cracking up and heading toward 1100?  Or are we seeing the markets on the verge of a new bull run such as that magnificent rally that began in March 2003 and lasted four and a half years?"  To tell you the truth, as far as the McClellan Oscillator is concerned, it really could be either.

So we zoom out a bit and take a look at the weekly chart of NYMO below:

NYMO Weekly - Click here for a live and updating version, complete with a few more indicators

At the end of June, the McClellan Oscillator closed the month at the highest reading of all time (on a monthly basis).  On a weekly basis, and even as of this evening, NYMO is currently sitting at the second highest reading of all time.  Looking at both charts above, in consideration of where the McClellan Oscillator currently resides, the only thing we know with 100% certainty is that the market is going to be headed south at any moment.  Perhaps it will begin with the market open on Thursday.  Perhaps the rally can even last as long as to finish out the week a bit higher.  But it's going to pull back.  If you're long... get out because the potential for downside risk dwarfs any reward you could possibly gain over the coming weeks.  You got your 8% in six days... now take it off the table.  This is a conclusion that's not even open for debate.  C'mon investors, the markets have just put in a magnificent 8% rally in 6 days, closing on the one week window that has marked a major turning point in 1998, 1999, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010 and 2011.  True enough, not all of them were tops.  But if a turn is going to happen during this same week of this year, I can tell you this year it ain't going to be a low.  The question that is still open for debate is how far that pullback is going to go.  That part I don't pretend to know.  All I'm very comfortable with is that the market internals are sending a signal that basically says "enough already" and that we'd best be prepared for the inevitable... and that being "no bulls, you're not going to get another 8% over the next 6 days."

Every once in a while we hit the end of the road
And finally, the divergence that has developed is not a bearish divergence but a negative divergence.  They are not the same thing.  The bearish divergence, one in which the index makes a new high but it's indicators do not, does not offer measurable targets.  The one we're looking at today is a negative divergence, one which 'does' offer a measured move possibility.  In these cases, the indicators make a new high but the index does not.  With the negative divergence set-up that we're faced with currently, we're looking at a measured move to 6234 on the NYSE (NYA) and 1118 on the S&P 500.  I wish I could offer a money back guarantee that these targets are going to be hit.  But considering that we're now living in a matrix where the central banks of the world just keep pulling one green rabbit after the other out of their greasy asses, who in heck knows for sure whether or not these divergences and the message they deliver will be obeyed this time around?  If there were no such thing as central bankers I'd offer that money back guarantee.  Mind you, if there were no such thing as central bankers the Dow never would have gotten over 1000 in the first place.  So stay tuned... the potential for a big decline does indeed exist despite the stink of euphoria permeating the planet's otherwise breathable atmosphere.

Wishing all of you nothing but success going forward... and a beautiful and happy summer.

Until next time....



END OF ORIGINAL POST

================================

UPDATE: July 4th, 2012

Papa_Boule has made reference to a couple of great 'broad measures', the GDOW and VEU (the ETF that includes everything BUT the US indexes).  In the interest of providing a 'visual' for our discussion, I've added a daily version of GDOW below:

GDOW Daily - Click here for a live and updating version

112 comments:

  1. ahh hello ! Always good to see a new post from you!
    --
    Yes, if there was no fear of the Bernanke (although I've no fear of him until mid/late August right now) I'd surely think we're going down to the low 1100s 'for sure'.

    As it is..it remains a highly nasty and twisted market.

    If new highs of 1422 are hit..then my primary bearish outlook is invalidated and will be thrown out Its really that simple. We'll know soon enough.

    Good wishes to you AR, July will be an important month.
    --
    For the record, I'd at least like to see July close with a lower low..but that means sp<1266..and that is over 100pts lower. Urghhh!

    If a major down move it going to start..it has to start within 3-7 trading days, the clock is ticking, bears need to reverse this nonsense before we break too high.

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  2. My apologies PD that they've been few and far between.  Haven't had much urge to write lately but this latest development in NYMO has certainly made me sit up and take notice.  We'll see what happens, but it's certain the market isn't headed much higher without a pullback first.  Odds are that it's a big one rather than a small one.  But like I mentioned in the piece, the Orcs of New York might have more rabbits to pull outta their asses yet.  Who knows the extent of the evil they still possess?

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  3. Nice piece AR.  Celebration of your writing offers me just one more excuse to tip just one more back tomorrow!

    Particularly enjoyed your comments about negative vs bearish divergences--it seems (to me anyway) to hit on a very foundational/philosophical TA point.  Interestingly, "bearish divergence" is a phrase that doesn't seem to be in the lexicon (phrase-icon?) of either E&M or Murphy.  Even some of their more prominent disciples have more narrowly re-interpreted what "negative divergence" means.  If we've got different definitions of the words, it sure does make speaking the same language difficult.  It'd make ya manky enough to sneak a fag in the loo.  Or go crook enough to chuck a thong.

    Periods like early Spring 2010, or December 2010, or Q1 2012 have me gunshy about completely ruling out seasonal lows.  Which, I guess, is only to say that the larger upward correction is doing its job.

    Enjoy the US market holiday!

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  4. first chart interesting Discover Card survey and report also very nehative

    http://www.consumerindexes.com/

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  5. "It'd make ya manky enough to sneak a fag in the loo.  Or go crook enough to chuck a thong."

    Ok, I'm gonna have to go Google those ones.  Haven't a clue what the second one means.  Don't know what "manky" means either but I think I get the drift thanks to the context, lol.

    John Murphy was the first 'teacher' I had and is a guy who I still consider to be the "best" TA guy I know of.  I learned most of what I know from reading his books... books that are lost somewhere among the library of boxes I've got stashed all over the city.  Judging by the accuracy of the explanations, descriptions and examples in StochCharts' Chartschool, I'd guess that it was Murphy who wrote it for them.  It 'might' have been Chip Anderson himself but I've got a hunch Murphy had a hand in it.  Ironically, my mom had a brother named John so he was my uncle John Murphy.  Not the same guy though I don't think, lol.

    As far as the analysis above is concerned Zimmer, all I can do is present the evidence.  The charts show what happens to X when something happens to Y and Z.  I don't think there's any reason (other than the effect of the central banks) to expect that the outcome will be any different this time than what happened in the past.  If it turns out that they just pull off another miracle and then another one and then another one, then my analysis will likely be proven wrong.  But I sure won't hang my head in shame if that were to happen.  The charts just suggest that "they're not gonna be able to pull off that miracle".  We'll see :-)

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  6. The 'evil', ha, is limitless, the mere press of a few keys, and they could print off infinite money to keep the game going.

    I'm still guessing the Bernanke will NOT do QE3 before the election. QE3 will be one of the last main bullets the Fed has. As Benny himself notes, every Qe round has diminishing returns.

    He IS very smart, and a good game player, I'd guess he'll wait until a major collapse wave - if we get one, and then appear as hero to both the market..and even more so, to the cheer leaders on the clown network TV.
    --

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  7. I dont' think he'll announce any more QE at all.  Some say "he has to, he has no choice".  But I think Graham Summers is right in his assessment<./b> as seen on ZH.

    I agree with you on the other counts.  I definitely don't think he does it before the election.  Since there are very few bullets left (if in fact 'any') he'll no doubt save it for use in the worst possible scenario, when it can be "justified" and the people will be begging for it.

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  8. One outlook I'm considering, is that he will appear in the low sp'1100s..and do QE, but only 350/450bn - spread across 9months or so.

    That would be enough to kick the market up for a few months, but considering the broader underlying issues, it would arguably be a a gift to the bears to reshort in early October, for nothing less than an outright crash move.

    That is of course in the realms of 'crazy talk', first need to see low 1100s hit.

    If we do see low 1100s, no later than late August, then my master-overview will be ON.

    I'll then move to a full scale war mode, in prep' for a viable collapse wave 6-8 weeks later.
    --

    Its an exciting..but scary thought.  Even as permabear, I wish I could just go long, and not worry about anything.

    A little 'basic stock research..hit a button, and come back once every 6months or so'.

    if only.
    --

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  9. Yeah, I'll go along with your entire plan there PD.  Me too bud, I honestly wish I could just go long and feel really good in my heart and soul that it was a wise and safe and "justifiable" position to take.  But it's going to take one hell of a crash before I'd be able to do that 'comfortably'... if you know what I mean.  There is just such an incredible amount of excess that has to be wrung out of the system before it can even begin to heal.  And at this time the excess we need to eradicate is debt?  How is that ever going to happen?  There's only one way.

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  10. Thanks for that one AR...It was good to see the chart on PLs, but even better to get whole story over here...don't let this place gather too much moss between articles if ya can. It's a good place...

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  11. Haha... thanks buddy.  Nice of you to drop in.  Yeah man, I'm sorry about that but I can get thrown off my game plan pretty bad sometimes.  One of these days I'm going to write a short missive and post it on Pretzel's site explaining what it takes to produce articles.  About how it takes a totally different mindset, and a totally different 'goal' in order to do what Pretzel does.  We often hear him speak about how many hours he worked on some days.  I think he understates it.  Yup, some day soon I'm going to point out to his readers what a task it would be to do what he does.  Respectfully, I add that other bloggers who produce something every single day "on a regular regimented schedule" work hard as well.  But PL's work... man, that's really outstanding stuff he produces.

    But for me, for one thing I'm not doing wave analysis here so I don't have any particular schedule that I have to adhere to.  And that's a good thing because I've certainly got enough other stuff on my plate as well, a full time job for example.  But yeah, I got pretty fed up during June and didn't produce much here.  I sorry!  Mind you, I'm not exactly drawing the biggest salary out of blogging either, lol.  If it were lucrative enough, you bet I'd love to be able to just write and trade all day and forget all the other nonsense I have to do :-)  I don't think I've even scratched the surface on the things I could write about that people would likely find useful.  Hell, I might even start a rant blog just so people can vent. Haha... get myself in trouble real good.

    Anyway, thanks for dropping in Scotty.  Happy July 4th :-)

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  12. Great article (from you ) and interesting link to Graham Summers AR,thanks

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  13. AR great stuff as usual - and now it's my turn to reconsider my analysis!! I do appreciate the effort and thought that goes into your posts.  Hope you're enjoying our holiday, Canadians are welcome you know.

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  14. A quick glimpse through my crimson glasses says yes we are overbought very short term, but with daily momentum and trend finder indicators in bullish alignments, and the weekly chart three weeks into a bullish momentum shift, I don't think an immediate sell-off is likely. A pullback yes, but a trend reversal no. We just had a 1-2-3 trend reversal higher on the daily time frame. The same with Fibonacci retrace analysis. The short term moving average trio is bullish aligned. We're getting a fast moving reaction higher after 3 main attempts to take out key support which is what the Gann rule of 3 describes. The 50 SMA is above the 200 on the daily, weekly and monthly time frames activating the "no shorts allowed without important bearish divergences" rule on all those time frames. Perhaps those important divergences are building, but perhaps it is also still early to say. In any event, that's really all the bears have "technically" to hang their hats on for the moment: possible bearish divergences. Oh, and short term overbought. You know what they say, markets can stay overbought longer than your account can stay solvent. Hope I'm not sounding like I'm trying to rain on the bear's parade. I'm just describing what I see through those crimson glasses of mine with no intent other than to share that "vision". (I did a post covering some of these indicators on the IBEX http://tickerforum.org/akcs-www?singlepost=2974227 and another on various indices http://tickerforum.org/akcs-www?singlepost=2975084 both of which I referred to as "template analysis" that could be used on just about any of the major indices . . . it looks bullish to me . . . but I could be wrong of course.)

    And yes, if all those bullish indicators were to suddenly turn bearish again, in such a short period of time, I'd be getting out my crash helmet to complement those glasses. ;-)

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  15. Interesting article AR. I do wonder about using the $NYMO in a weekly timeframe. Certainly, the simple/complex distinction HighRev brought up can't apply in a weekly, so I'd think this is a different kind of study. Yeah, a "measured move" to 1100 would be stunning but at this point, it's hard to imagine. So it's good some people like you are doing the imagining exercise. Thanks for the article.

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  16. Haha... no worries HighRev, everything you've presented is true.  I'm a big fan of using moving averages as well and I have to admit it's pretty hard to deny that at the moment they're looking pretty darned bullish.  They went that way (by my interpretation) about 3 days after the June low.  Imagine this... the 100 day actually turned lower and that's a bearish signal to be sure.  But right out of the blue... this rally of 8% in 6 days turned that puppy right back up again.  Mind you, the market is going to have to continue higher at this same torrid pace in order to prevent it from flipping lower once again, right along with the 50 day, which is still headed down as we speak.  But it too is threatening to turn higher, and it will if the market can continue this torrid pace upward.  But yes, I can absolutely see bullish signs right now as well as reliable bearish signals.  That having been said we should be seeing bullish signs with bearish warnings just before a reversal as well.  But as you say, I fully realize and accept that the divergences can absolutely continue developing, then releasing, then developing yet again... over and over again... as the market just chugs forever higher.  That could happen.  As of this afternoon, I don't think it will.  As of the close on Friday though, I may be forced to change my mind on that.  And if it makes sense to change my mind, I will.  Just give me two more days to run with this ball and let's see what happens.  I may be joining your team shortly thereafter, lol.

    I'll be watching that 800 level on RUT right along with ya bud.

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  17. Hi Al.  Thanks for your kind words.  You're always generous, lol.

    Hey... what happened?  How come we can't click on your name now and be taken directly to the home of Happy Apple Al's Fine Wines and Beer Emporium?

    Believe me Al, I look at your stuff with a lot of respect.  And I find it to be very valuable because it literally forces me to do the same thing... to reconsider my own work.  You know, although the work of two individuals may seem to be in total conflict sometimes, quite often it's not.  It's just the human interpretation of "what we see" that is in error sometimes.  In reality, both analysts are probably more often right than wrong with their work.  Passing grades as far as the "math" is concerned.  But it's the conclusions we draw that are in conflict and let's be realistic, that's what makes us individual human beings.  But I look upon those situations as a godsend because of the fact that they are literally warnings that we'd better go back and check our own work.

    So needless to say, I also "appreciate the effort and thought that goes into your posts" as well.

    I hope you're enjoying a peaceful 'special day'.

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  18. It's a privilege to be able to read conversations like these.  Thank you guys.

    I think the most hurtful thing for a troll is to be ignored.  No attention whatsoever.  So easy.  So effective.

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  19. LOL love the link to Happy Al's................

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  20. I agree with that sentiment wholeheartedly Zimmer.  Long ago, when I was young and naive I used to urge others to do the same.  The problem is that it takes "everybody" to do the ignoring, and when a site has 50 different contributors, there's always somebody who will respond to the troll and the battle is on.  There's not getting away from it unless you just eradicate the source of the problem and simply move forward.  "Forward" being the operative word there... as in "progress for having eradicated a problem".

    The problem for me lies in the fact that I sometimes get attacked even when I'm not there and sometimes haven't even posted a comment in a week or a month.  As you can well imagine, that can irk a guy, and dare I say 'especially an Irish guy'.  The vast majority of people have never felt what that's like, so when they say "just let it run off", I hope they realize that's harder said than done.  Here... it's not even a consideration.

    Thanks for the nice words Zim.  You've seen similar conversations over at Binver's place and there's a reason they happen.  A good reason.  All the best bud :-)

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  21.  I have lots of cycles coming in this week so my perspective is different to HR's although I see what he is saying and the bullish ema alignment shouldn't be ignored.......acceleration into a cycle date is normal and wrongsides the most amount of people.Still,cycles mean nothing without confirmation....pricehttp://chartramblings.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/here-is-cycles-chart-showing-3-of.html,time....and pattern

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  22. CR, on your charts the 'degrees' refer to the celestial clock right?  Like 360 degrees represents one full rotation 'of' the celestial clock... or 'one year'?  So is Gann work basically cyclical as relates to time and nothing else?  I apologize bro, but I never can seem to be able to focus on Gann work even though I've visited it more times than I can remember. 

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  23. Nice post, AR!

    We're on the same page expecting a big move down. I think it will be the 5 of Intermediate 1 down of P3 down. And your target could very well be reached.

    Here's what I'm going with (and this kind of restates and expands what I posted on the last thread). On the GDOW daily the current wave is still solidly within wave 4 territory. VEU (the ETF that is everything BUT the US indexes) has just about violated wave 4 rules by crossing into wave 2 territory, but VEU is a fund, not an index, and it is traded in the US as an equity, therefore it is subject to some of the same distortions that affect US markets. So I'm not going to toss out the count if VEU does bust the wave 4 rule.

    So I'm focusing mainly on the GDOW as one of the best remaining metrics of social mood, along with a couple of well-known (here) currency pairs.

    Granted, the GDOW might be working a wave 2 up instead of a 4 of wave 1. It is possible to count 5 waves down and an ABC up on the daily. However, if that means a big wave 3 is in the offing, it would suggest a slide lasting into the election and end of the year. I do not think that is plausible. Too much is at stake in an election year. No arrow will be left in the quiver (and I'm talking about QE of course).

    I think it's more plausible to go with it as a 4, with a 5 down still to come. That would lead to a QE announcement at one of the remaining Fed meetings, and leave room for a wave 2 rally heading into the elections and Santa/end-of-year rally time.

     If you look at the triangle on the GLD daily, the apex tightens to a point (which would force a breakout move) that might give a clue as to which Fed meeting might be the QE announcement. I think it will be the September 12-13 FOMC/SEP/chairman's press conference meet. That would seem to be good timing for launching a rally into most of October and into elections. I'd think there'd be reluctance about starting any earlier, out of concern a QE rally might fizzle before November.

    If all this WAGuessing works out, the July 31-August 1 Fed meeting would be where an algo front-running bounce would occur during the proposed wave 5 down (front running hope for QE announcement at that time), but with no QE the slide would resume a short time after, until the later September meeting.
     
    And if this count does validate, after the Intermediate wave 2 rally, buckle up for 2013 and Intermediate 3 of P3 down.

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  24. That's a great comment Papa... love that one.  Just for quick reference, I've added a daily chart of GDOW above.

    First of all, I see exactly what you mean when referring to the move down in GDOW as being shaped just right so that we honestly don't have a clue about which is the proper count on it.  Even if somebody were to say "c'mon, it's clear that's just an 'abc' down" who could possibly take them seriously because it's not "clearly" anything.  As for your opinion on what wave higher we have just witnessed, I couldn't agree with you more... that it's still up in the air.

    BUT, you've addressed the very issue I was discussing with HighRev quite a bit lower.  In fact, you're focus is so much on my very target that it's probably fitting that I simply cut and paste one paragraph from below.  Here's what I said when responding to HighRev:

    "On the topic of "will Bernanke make sure Obama is saved?": 
    That's becoming a very interesting consideration, isn't it?  Because if
    Bernanke needs a crisis in order to justify more QE, he'd better get off
    his ass and engineer it in a hurry, because they're running out of
    time.  I think there's barely enough time remaining for the market to
    crash and then put on the glorious recovery just as we're heading into
    the election.  They're just running out of time.  So that brings
    up the possibility that maybe, just maybe they're just going to keep
    goosing the market from this point right through the election.  Sounds
    impossible to me, but hey... stranger things have happened.  For
    example, I opened up a can of beans one time and there was corn inside
    it.  It's all about "mislabeling" I guess, lol.
    "

    So your opinion that what we just witnessed was a wave 4 with 5 to come fits the bill perfectly and addresses the very issue I was referring to.  I agree with you 100% on that and quite confidently so.  Because I think it's almost a no brainer that Bernanke wants the markets heading higher into the election.  If we're about to embark on a major collapse as would be the case if the big wave 3 is about to be unleashed there's no way the markets would be behaving like the power brokers want it to be behaving going into the election.  Neither do I think it's possible, nor practical, that they just keep goosing the markets for another 4 straight months.  How could they possibly do that unless they unleash more QR right now, or a month from now?  And how could Bernanke possibly justify more QE if the markets are still in a mind boggling rocket shot upwards?  He can't.

    A few weeks back I speculated that there was no way he was going to unleash any more QE at the last meeting and it turns out that was the case.  Keep in mind that damned near everybody and his dog was expecting it.  My question was "why are you expecting it?" and that question was partially based on the very metrics you and I are discussing right now.  So at that time I expressed that I thought more QE would have to be unleashed 'later' but not so late as to grant insufficient time for the markets to ramp magically enough to benefit Obama.  Therefore, I concluded that it would probably happen at the August meeting.  But now I'm listening to your argument why the early August meeting might be too early and your reasoning makes a ton of sense to me.  So I have no reason to doubt your logic... it makes perfect sense to me.

    There... now that we've got all the logistics taken care of, whataya want to talk about next?  :-)

    Haha... thanks for the great comment Papa.  That one was right up my alley and addressed what I think is a very, very important metric that we're gonna have to face going forward.

    All the best :-)

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  25.  yes 360 degrees is one year but Gann isn't just focused on time,its about balancing time and price.The fractions of the year are important but if they cluster together like in my chart where you have 90,360 and 720 its more important.But also you have a 50% retracement of the 180 degree rally .So its a strong cluster but means nothing unless there is a trigger (reversal pattern) Ive not looked at price in that chart other than to put the Gann angles on

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  26. When I say things like "I'd be getting out my crash helmet" if we get an immediate reversal at these levels, or the this rally could be a "short covering bull trap", I'm thinking exactly along those same lines. It's a very dangerous place to play where a majority of indicators are pointing in the same direction as the previously established and mature trend (where sensible risk/reward analysis recommends at least taking profits as AR points out). The vast, fast wave 2 type of rally that wants to convince everyone that the previous larger trend has resumed when it really hasn't is very tough to identify when dealing with a bullish trend (I'm much better identifying the inverse - the spike lower at the end of a bear trend that is a high probability buy). I'd like to better identify those last gasp spikes that can be sold. Using cycles to help identify that kind of opportunity makes a lot of sense. Thanks for that insight!

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  27. whataya want to talk about next?


    Maybe about the absolute necessity of at least some bias in interpreting waves? :) Seriously, without a biased idea of the higher degree picture or the overall trend and direction of the markets, the first two and three legs of any wave could be seen equally as either an impulsive or a corrective wave unfolding, any potential 4 could be equally seen as the next ABC corrective wave, everything's a tossup and EW is next to useless.

    So the big issue on any count is not whether you're biased -- you have to be if you're to come up with a count at all -- but whether your bias is well founded.

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  28. OMG, that's such a disturbing aspect of EWT isn't it?   I don't think you or I are any different than anybody else in that when we see what looks like an 'abc' with the 'c' leg being about 1.618% as long as the 'a' leg... we have absolutely no way of knowing whether or not a big powerful wave 3 is staring us in the face.  And even when that 'c' or 3 (we don't know which it is yet) pulls back we really can't know for sure what it is unless and until the original little wave 1 is overlapped.  The whole concept is just so open for interpretation for far too long to be of much help to us "in real time" really.  I think it depends on what time frame we're using it.  For example, Katzo7 is very good at using it on a micro scale.  He works way down there, zoomed way into the smallest scale charts, more or less where the bots work.  I can see how in that case he can put tremendously good stops in place to protect himself from big losses.

    But not everybody wants to be (or has the time to be) a day-trader.  I myself am more of a swing trader trying to catch waves of 'minor' degree or possibly as small as 'minute' degree for an entry point.  As long as a person catches them in the direction of the larger trend he'll do fine.  And therein lies the problem for 90% of those who believe the bearish case is the correct stance.  And why does that happen?  Because our bias is based on the 'cycle' scale or 'supercycle' scale.  Eventually we'll be right.  But that doesn't help us one iota from day to day and won't until reality finally emerges out of this banker-created illusory matrix we find ourselves in.  In other words, until the bankers actually lose control of the entire show, they're going to win.  They'll win until the game is over.  On that topic... I've always wondered if the entire global banking cabal will crumble right along with it and be forever ruined, or if they'll emerge on the other side owning the entire world for centuries to come.

    From the aspect of being traders at all, a bias is not much different than a debilitating mental disease.  In our day-to-day trading we must not allow ourselves to be biases.  At least that's the theory.  Easier said than done though for many of us, isn't it!  But there are those who are able to handle it... those who can go long and be fairly comfortable that the crash isn't going to happen tomorrow.  And they've been right.  And they're the wealthy ones.  I'd like to say "ignorance is bliss" and for the vast majority of people who've simply got their money in the 'safe hands of their fund manager', that is indeed the case.  Like the average and innocent everyday worker who's pension fund money is something he doesn't even think about or worry about. 

    But for those traders who actually 'trade' from the long side, I'll also respectfully admit that many of them are fully aware of what should, and will, eventually happen.  It's just that they don't allow that knowledge to cloud their day-to-day trading decisions.  That's the key.  Unfortunately for many bearish traders, they haven't found that key.  Having that bias on a 'cycle' or 'supercycle' scale is fine... but letting that same bias actually affect our decisions is just a killer.  I know it!  But I can't seem to control it!  And in that regard, as far as I'm concerned it's a disease.  Ok, I gotta run... I see a shorting opportunity developing, lol.

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  29. Been extremely busy with work project (even consuming nights, weekends, holidays, etc). Been trading my own indicators and analyses. Been doing OK, e.g. made money just ahead of the recent rally and I didn't get squeezed on the short side over the last few days. Not reading all the PL Forum chatter helps with the clarity.

    ,,,,\\DD//,,,,

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  30. NYSE wins approval for retail trading push 
    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/68dc88e8-c6ea-11e1-943a-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1znEF3TJX

    "NYSE Euronext has won US regulatory approval to launch a trading programme aimed at retail investors that the exchange hopes will reverse recent market share losses.... However, such programmes have been criticised by NYSE Euronext for reducing market transparency." http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f96b0022-c110-11e1-8179-00144feabdc0.html

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  31. Fractals conditioning a EW count on the SPX.

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  32. Good work DD.  Man, who could have seen that rally coming?  I mean, some of the EW gurus saw the potential for a rally, but who could have possibly imagined it running up 8% in 6 days... and based on what?  It was based on just one more out of what... a dozen?... different 'agreements' out of the Euroclown circus.

    For sure, depending on what time frame you like to trade and how much time you have period, reading forums can indeed offer way too much noise and opinions that whether we want to admit it or not, affect our thinking.  If we have our plan, we need to stick to it.  Not to deride anybody's contributions via the chat circuit, most of them are valuable.  But they can definitely throw so much doubt into a person's own thinking that his own mind becomes almost useless.  Not a good way to live a life, lol.
     

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  33.  LOL indeed.I barely understand it myself and Im trying to explain it to someone else   :-)

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  34.  we did get a decent reversal day in the Dax yesterday (a bearish engulfing candle,or "outside day" (key reversal ?) in western terminology.So you could have shorted theDax on that as the same cycles are in play,stop over the high, and let it run until there is an upside reversal.That is the way to trade these cycles in my understanding

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  35.  American Bulls had sell sigals on the US yesterday but they didnt seem as clear to me.Ftse had a spinning top,again not a clear enough signal

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  36. this is right up your alley AR   http://bbfinance.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/why-waiting-is-worth-it.html

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  37.  Absolutely AR.If someone is attacking you on a blog,calling you a windbag,permabear,paper-trader or whatever it may be the saintly thing to ignore it but who among us are saints? And thats on a good day when things are going well ,lol ! And our culture would deem us "wimpish" not to respond.And so begins the process of public slanging matches that escalate and bore everyone else and deteriorate into insult and playground farce.That is where the blog owner does have a big responsibilty and,as you say,it is not enough to adopt the high ground and say "just ignore them" And that is also where basic human conventions like civilty and manners are important,even if,as the likes of Wagner believe,they are not relevant to the high octane,competitive world of trading.Anyway tats my view and im not even Irish (well only a bit !)

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  38.  Abigail Doolittle
    ‏@AbbyDoolittle




    CORN is down 2%+ today for likely reversal of parabolic trend & could be the start of Grain Complex Correction http://stks.co/f1Vc

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  39. Yeah I love that chart of the DAX because it's so much cleaner.  From the perspective of EWT I think it's pretty clear that market wants to head much lower.  Starting on a big wave 3 down it looks like to me.  StockCharts was providing intraday charts for the European bourses and some of us really found that to be helpful.  But they're not providing them anymore for whatever reason so I can't drill down to an hourly chart or a 30 min. to get any readings off them.  But the 50 and 100 day MAs are heading lower and the 50 has already crossed beneath the 100.  So if that market is any indication of equities in general, the American markets shouldn't be all that confusing to anybody.  However, they still screw with my head, lol.  I'll just pay more attention to the DAX and I'll be fine.

    The FTSE on the other hand... in all due respect, I hate that market.  I think it's the most manipulated market in the world, considering it's located in the city that really is the heart of the global financial district.  People think it's Wall Street banks and the FED, but the BOE is probably pulling as many strings as anyone else.

    Have a great weekend buddy :-)

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  40. Yup!  Thanks CR... I like the way that guy thinks.

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  41. It was quite the display.  I hope he's proud of himself because I'm sure nobody else is.  By the way... I did not respond to a single one of his... what was it 40?... attacking and insulting comments.  I'm a believer in the notion that if you give a person enough rope he'll hang himself.  He went a long way toward accomplishing that.

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  42. I’ve been studying the Global Dow ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Global_Dow ) for a while now along with the rest of the world’s major broad based indices, and I’ve reached the point where I have decided to use the GDOW as my main proxy for world equity markets, not necessarily in lieu of those other major indices, but rather as my key jumping off point for the analysis of the rest of those indices. My thinking is that sound analysis of the GDOW, and the subsequent reconciling of the rest of the world’s major equity indices with that GDOW centric analysis, should improve my ability to identify major cyclic turns as well as shorter term rotational divergences and divergences.

    The immediate challenge is to try and get a handle on how the huge spread currently seen between the leading and the lagging indices relative to the GDOW will be resolved. When will it start to close? Will it widen further before closing? What will the process look like? Will we see a syncing process into lows or highs?

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  43. Good job not responding AR ... sorry I accidentally helped stir the pot.  I didn't mean to be a pot-stirrer.

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  44. It was a non-issue Greg.  You're a class act all the way kiddo and you represent the type of folks I prefer to see here.  As you can tell by now, I'm certainly not going to any great lengths to "draw a huge crowd".  We've all see how that can sometimes get a bit too noisy for those who want to concentrate.  I've been guilty in the past of contributing to that type of noise as well.

    Which reminds me, PL never did get back to me and I never did see you on his site.  You're not having any type of problems are you?

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  45. I plead guilty to having not watched the GDOW close enough but you guys are hammering home the point.  I'll be keeping much closer tabs on it in the future.  Along those lines, I've been watching certain indices like the Dow Jones European Financial Index ($E1FIN) as well as the DJ World Financial Index ($W1FIN) for quite a while so I've been remiss in not paying closer attention to GDOW.  Thanks for the reminders.

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  46. Thanks bud.
    I went over there to PL-land and registered, and it said to wait for the administer to approve my registration, and I never noticed any email responses.  I'll check it out tonight.  Maybe I don't need an email response.

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  47. Here's to looking at price patterns on the GDOW. ;-)

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  48. Jump starting this analysis.

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  49. Price action confirmation of this Gann analysis looks good to me, especially the 1x2 line which corroborates the previous channel analysis. The down sloping 1x1's are also supported by price action - the mega-bears might like to think that price will end up at the lower right of the next 360 square. ;-)

    Also of interest is the comparison with similar work done on the SPX (last updated here: http://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.com.es/2012/06/nysi-adds-fuel-to-argument-for-bounce.html#comment-560311376 ). Note how the 1x2 was regained and then used as support before the SPX was able to regain its corresponding 1x2. Note also how the GDOW lost that support and regained it again a second time, exactly like the SPX, only out of sync, and has recently lagged to the downside. Yet the SPX has consistently outperformed the GDOW since the March 2009 low. How's that? The answer that explains all the just mentioned is simple: the GDOW "only" retraced around 78.6% of the rally off of the 2002 lows while the SPX *made* NEW LOWS! This, of course, might also be a clue about what might be interesting to watch going forward.

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  50. Hi, Nice post! Would you please consider adding a link to my
    website on your page. Please email me back. 



                      


    Thanks!      


     


    Harry


    harry.roger10@gmail.com
     

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  51. Hi Harry.  No, actually I won't.  Considering that you've broadcast the same plea to about 16,000 different blog sites over the past few days, fishing for an email address each time... no, I'm afraid I'm not interested in emailing you to have to ask your where is you website.  But thanks for the invitation.

    Best regards,
    Troll hunter.

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  52. Artsy chartsy.

    http://i.imgur.com/yOZnX.jpg

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  53. GDOW Elliott Wave

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  54. The immediate task at hand is to put some distance between price and that major support level that's been tested over and over again. Time to get off its duff.

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  55.  Forgot the chart. ;-(

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  56. That's an awesome chart Papa and it makes a ton of logical sense to me.  Let's go with it.  With your permission, I might like to include it in the next article I write, if I ever find the inspiration to write it, lol.   Thanks for submitting it :-)

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  57. By all means, help yourself! And thanks! :)

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  58. Thank you sir.  Don't hold your breath though because even though I still study my charts at the end of trading day to see how they've changed, for some reason unbeknownst to me I don't feel like writing these days.  I'm sure there's another one somewhere on the horizon though.

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  59. I thought this looks like a reasonable set of moves.

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  60. Nice chart and article posted by ZH capped off by this quote:

    "So the next time you hear someone saying how negative sentiment is - and
    that's a reason to buy - show them this chart (of real positions - not a
    survey!) and tell them to move along."

    Here's the same chart with a couple of notations of mine (in black).

    And another great article by John Hampson that also deals with some key current sentiment readings and other closely related items. http://solarcycles.net/2012/07/11/equities-v-bonds-v-commodities-v-dollar/

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  61. Of course. Great artists will wait for inspiration instead of forcing the creative process. :) Don't feel pressure of any expectations from me -- I was thanking you for the compliment on the chart, not for using it in a post. Stay awesome, AR. :)

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  62.  Very nice. VEU looks kinda similar, as it should.

    It remains my primary basis for low 1100s.and the door is open to a 2008 collapse wave - since we ARE moving into recession.
    --

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  63. Here's some scribbles on the SP, IMO distorted into a diagonal by intervention. Compare with the earlier scribbles on the GDOW.

    I know this count isn't popular with people who don't want to see Obama reelected, (who'd rather see a big crash come now) but that's shortsighted. If these waves are Intermediate degree, it points to a huge 3 of P3 down in 2013. Whichever party holds the office when the wheels come off in a 3 of 3 down could become a pariah party and might not win the White House again for a couple of decades. I'm feeling rather apathetic politically, since it's pretty much heading in the same direction no matter what. The rest is theater, and really doesn't affect where things go, only how fast they get there.

    http://i.imgur.com/KRvfs.jpg

    Earlier GDOW chart:

    http://i.imgur.com/yOZnX.jpg

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  64. What do things look like on the SPX?

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  65. I've taken my daily Gann 360 from the SPX, and applied it to the GDOW, and then to the CAC. 

    I've also "color coded" what I think this Gann analysis projects as possible trading zones into the end of the square.* 

    *Note that there is a difference between possible and probable. ;-) I always recommend not only multi-time frame analysis, but multi-layer analysis as well (combining horizontal support, with trend lines, Fib. support, etc.). This Gann analysis is only one piece of the puzzle. That having been said, when taking into account the many pieces of the puzzle that I look at, I could indeed say that those trading zones look probable to me, but I would not say that based solely on one type of analysis in one particular time frame.

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  66.  a bottle of whisky always did it for Hemingway. Way to go Papa :-)

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  67.  I have no insight into what happened.He seems to feel aggrieved because he apologised for his comments then you banned him and that he had no way of defending himself ? But not defending his reaction or saying that is right or wrong.Sitting on the fence lol !

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  68. another ill-fated excursion into wave land.With some Gann angles.Woudnt like to see Dax close above 6616 for this to be right
     http://chartramblings.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/dax_14.html

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  69. Aussie dollar setup   http://chartramblings.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/aussie-dollar-t-for-two.html

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  70. I like your AUD chart ... I was also thinking this needed another leg down to be a minor one of P3 to take out P1 low.

    But lately I've seen two people (Geno and Austin) mention that we also could be in a very big triangle in the AUDUSD daily chart.
    I've labeled their thinking here. Basically, we'd be in the D wave (up) of the 5 wave triangle.  Which would imply the SP500 has a ways to go upbefore falling (in price and time).  The reason this is swaying me is that there have been all 3-wavers.  And in a triangle you can have 4-5 3-wavers.  hmmmm ...  makes me lay off my short trigger finger until this sorts itself out.

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  71. Greetings Earthlings
    Back in the saddle this week.

    AUDUSD
    I don't give the big triangle much credence because
    1. The rise from 0.47 in 2001 is a double-Zigzag. People looking for a 5th wave up to a new high won't get it-it's an A-B-C up from 0.60
    2. CAN easily count 5 waves down from 1.1084 in July 2011 without too much trouble.
    AUDUSD daily- Greg :check out 5 waves down on the initlal [1] - 
    http://screencast.com/t/wa4rGNOAV

    AUDUSD 4hrly
    http://screencast.com/t/hR1YmF1Ef

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  72.  thanks Greg.Generally I don't like to be on the other side of Geno's trades ! I'm not playing this one so will watch from the sidelines

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  73. USDCAD 4hrly
    http://screencast.com/t/MY9TclzF1qcc

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  74. Quick daily chart for the CAC. I'm a bit under the weather so may not be around much for a couple more days.

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  75. Welcome back Darkest Knight -- hope you came back rested and refreshed!

    Thanks for those masterful counts ... you do show 5 clear waves down in both P1 and minor 1 of P3 ...
    You've actually swayed me back to the camp of 2 of P3 in progress.  I'd been a tad bothered that minor 1 of p3 didn't take out Minor 1 low.  That's what helped that big triangle gain more credibility.

    We'll find out very soon what it decides to do near those nice looking targets for this rise to end.

    By the way there is a movie coming out in the States about the Dark Knight on Friday ... does this have anything to do with your avatar? 
    Nice countin Tex.

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  76. Yes, I wrote the screenplay, lol & told them it must be released globally this Friday.
    And if they stick to my script, the Dark Knight WILL RIse by the end of this week. ha ha.

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  77. Haha!  Ah yes, I've been looking forward to the Rising of the Dark Knight for some time now!
    Although I just heard of the movie, and mostly, I am looking forward to the end of this week :)

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  78. Get well!
    http://rationalinsolvency.com/2012/07/cac071512apf.png 

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  79. One more point in favor of your AUDUSD count vs. the big triangle -- it is more in synch with the SP500 as well as the USDJPY.  Both appear to be nearing the end of 2 of 3.

    Speaking of the yen, what dost thou thinketh of this count on the USDJPY?
    Another 1-2,i-ii,(i)-(ii).   yes, I know -- those never pan out.  But this one is so well-behaved ... that I'm worried.
    As for the alternate count if the 78.60 doesn't hold?  That's a stumper.  The dark knight will rise, won't he?

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  80. Did you see DK's response above?  He doesn't think we're in a big triangle and he has a nice persuasive count up there too.

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  81. USDJPY is a complete mess.
    I'm very doubtful re this long trade now...need to revisit bigger count, so watch out amigo

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  82. Thanks for your thoughts ... I'm watching that one to see if it holds the pivot of 78.60 before I try riding that one again.

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  83. commodities surging
    http://www.bondvigilantes.com/2012/07/12/crazy-weather-and-the-butterfly-effect-on-inflation/ 
    http://www.distressedvolatility.com/2012/07/corn-future-tests-2011-high-on-severe.html 

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  84. SP bounced down off the upper line of the diagonal (see previous scribbly chart). Count still hanging in there.

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  85. Quote of the day:

    "Former Fed Chairman Volker: Some things are ‘beyond the Federal Reserve’, Bernanke doesn’t have a ‘magic bullet’"

    This is a truth rarely uttered.  The fact that it has been uttered means that we are getting closer to the moment of mass recognition that ... There is NO solution to the debt problems of the world.  None.

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  86. Those grain price increases represent shocking profits made by futures traders right there ... on the back of the worst drought conditions in 50 years.  And speculative premium of course.

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  87. Good evening/afternoon DK,
    Hey, Daneric's alternate count now is the double-zig-zag for minor 2.
    Well, whaddya know, that would synch up quite nicely with your AUDUSD count, eh?  Wouldn't that be tidy?!
    It would imply some possible additional upside to the SPY -- 1390 to 1400+.

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  88. Hey Greggo
    yes, double Z-Z on track. but Danno has had it on his radar for a while I think too.
    Two big things I've learned in EW in the last year
    1. Be on the lookout for genuine triangles- they can be the key to unlock the puzzle.
    2. Watch out for the double ZZ -they can wreck what seems like a perfect trade.
    Looks like it's all building up nicely to peak just as my move opens (& close to SJ's "Olympic" turn too)
    stay safe
    DK

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  89. Thanks for sharing -- I wondered how you made sense of some of these squiggles!  I'm going to research the triangles and double zigzags in the ol' text book.

    It's all coming together, yes.  I also just noticed that the peak of the 2nd wave of the Minor 3 wave down of Primary 1 was the week of August 15th, 2008.  An anniversary date coming up. 

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  90. Inside Canada, China Asserts Itself
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303933704577530870461914202.html?mod=googlenews_wsj 
    http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/MK-BV756_CANCHI_NS_20120716181804.jpg

    "Chinese companies once were happy to let Canadians and Americans represent them here. No longer. Today, they're increasingly using Chinese nationals as they invest billions into natural resource projects. These nationals can be seen from one end of Canada to the next, variously negotiating deals with Native American groups or prospecting for minerals in remote areas."

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  91. And no exit strategy for the risk taking. Shorts have been about squeezed dry and picked clean. Retail investors got their fill some time ago. Confidence and trust are falling along with social mood. There will be very few buyers to sell to when the wheels come off.

    I do think there is at least one QE rally left. Simply because the mere hope of a QE announcement still sends the bots and algos into a front-running tizzy, just as it has the last few days. That proves it could still work and that means it is likely to be tried again. An actual announcement would probably have quite a bit of juice. But once QE fails while still ongoing, that would probably wrap it up, since that's all there is now.

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  92. Hi, AR. Just a short hello, hope things are good!

    So..the bull maniacs have seen a wave'2/B, or whatever you want to call it, and we're now due a major 3/C lower.

    As a permabear, I sat out the 1266 to 1365 move higher - and now positioned for the move lower. I suppose that might wanna whack it up briefly to 1385/90..but I can't imagine any closes over that. Besides, the daily cycle needs to rollover in the next 2-3 days or it'll be a problem for the bigger picture.

    The monthly outlook -as originally noted in April, remains on track.

    So..lets see if get that big move lower. On any basis it should at least hit 1225/00, and thats a good 150pts lower, within 3-5 weeks. Could be a lot more though, but bears need a good 'scare story' to spook those algo-bots ;)

    Good wishes

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  93. USDJPY:  did we just complete 1-2, i-ii, (i)-(ii) ?!
    It's showtime!  If this count is right, now is the moment of truth ... a low risk high reward set up because the line in the sand is right there.  78.60 is the low from ii which it should not violate ... 78.681 was the iv of (ii) that it had to get below, and did at 78.623. 

    Hopefully cheers are in store! 

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  94. Interesting
    price action out of Australia
    last night that might be forecasting something.

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  95. Hey there HighRev.  I was just studying that little 'consolidation' inside the channel you drew and the one thing that immediately stood out (for me at least) is that whatever it is, it's not impulsive to the upside.  At least not yet.  So I would be 'expecting' prices to be falling down out of that area... just as you would be.  I was thinking that it's still probably a corrective of some sort so it's possibly an 'abc' x 'abc' that's nearly complete.  It would be ok (although a bit troubling) if it broke that upper channel.  But then it had better fall back down through the channel to continue the trek downward.

    THEN, I read Pretzel's thoughts this morning as I do every morning, and he comes up with a 'potential' bullish scenario, even though it kind goes against his grain.  I'm tellin' ya man, that guy's vision is outstanding.  He's not always right but who is?  But he sure as hell does nail the intraday moves a lot.  And for a guy who's bearish at heart, his honesty at showing the bullish possibilities is what I want to see (and 'don't' want to see but I need to see them anyway, lol).  Check out what he has to say this morning.

    On a side note, Greggor, you're definitely cleared over there.  PL told me he cleared you right away.  And HighRev, if you haven't signed up over there, why don't you do that?  You'd fit in over there just great.  It's not exactly the type of crowd we're used to in that there are a lot of rookies (smart ones who are learning fast), but there are also some contributors who really know their stuff and provide some great charts.  Of prime importance though is that it's a super friendly crowd, every single one of which wants to see 'everybody else' do well.  That's the type of atmosphere I prefer to breath in but I also think of it as a 'participant base that's still developing'.  Eventually that's going to evolve into such an outstanding group that we're all going to be proud just to be part of it.  Greg is good to go over there.  Papa has dropped off the odd comment too that I really liked (as usual, lol), but a few new faces would be refreshing right about now.  Your cow face fits the bill nicely :-)

    Thanks for dropping by HR.  You're more of a regular here than I am.

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  96. Well, they keep doing the "impossible" in Europe. No daily short setups left on the big boys of the north. Will France, Italy and Spain finally decide to play along? Or will the north give up the ghost? We know what ZH has to say (without even looking of course), but I'm not so sure it's such a synch. When you look at Asia and Europe from more intermediate term perspectives, they sure look more like IT cycle lows than highs . . .

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  97. More of a regular than you! lol

    Thanks for making that possible. Yeah, I could go over to PL, but I'm really not that active either. One or two posts a day at the most, and no chit chat, and what I do gets lost and becomes meaningless. I have very limited time for this which is why I'm not very active, but I also have a passion for it that motivates me to participate as much as possible. I really like what you've got going here, especially the foundation on which you've built things, and I also actually like a thread that "endures" for a while - and better yet if that coincides with what's going on in the market. The focus on the NYMO and NYSI is still very much on my radar screen in what I'm characterizing as an indecisive market. I'm waiting (and looking) for confirmation of a move higher or a failure to do so, but until then, I'm kind of in the same place, and why update if no update is needed? I guess that to put things another way, I'm more focused on swing trading, and a site like yours works really well for me.

    What am I looking for that would confirm some sort of trend change? Right now I'm super focused on Treasuries. I was thinking that there was a possibility for an outside bearish reversal in bonds on the weekly this week. There was also a possibility of an evening star reversal on the USD. It doesn't look like either will happen so I'm still kind of on hold. Sooner or later they will, but in the meantime the market could eat up your entire account if you're early on those bets . . . and then there's the matter of the correlations keeping up, which is never guaranteed . . . but for now, I still don't see much but isolated and scattered signs of a possible move higher, just as others see those same isolated and scattered signs of the opposite, and that brings me back to doe, ray, me, why update. ;-)

    I like this board. It's well balanced with contributors I respect, and as such, it's just as good a place as any to pick up on anything relevant and important that I may have missed with my regular "internet walk about" and to more often than not, pick up on important original insights and ideas. What we get here in very few posts requires hundreds on other sites, and, frankly, that just ain't worth it (nor do I have the time even if I wanted to). Truth be said, I'm a little upset with you for "nudging" others elsewhere, hehehe. That's a joke. I know that you're thinking in everyone's best interest and indirectly apologizing for not doing more, but you don't need to do more. You do enough already!

    Thanks!

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  98. Well. The Invincible Burrito has feet of salsa after all.

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  99. After taking a quick look at the Fib setups on the daily time frame on the major world indices I follow, I see a very sedated picture, and certainly not one of panic as might be interpreted if one were looking at the MIB and IBEX in isolation.

    There are daily short setups left *only* on the AORD, NIKK, CAC, MIB and IBEX.

    The DAX, AEX, and SMI ran nicely higher in measured and/or extension moves over the last couple of weeks breaking their daily short setups, and are now currently pulling back after hitting targets. Other indices like the FTSE and are trading sideways to lower after hitting long targets earlier on. The OEX just hit a -23.6% target on Thursday. The vast majority like the GDOW itself remain inside daily longs that mostly traded a week ago Friday.

    That's a picture where things look constructive overall and everything has the hallmark of a buy the dip in its early stages with more immediate downside first, most probably with the corresponding spike in fear that makes buying the dip so difficult to do. I’d expect the EURO, MIB and IBEX to give early warning signs to the contrary if I’m wrong. I’ll be closely watching recent lows on all three to see if they turn higher confirming yet another of multiple bullish divergences on various time frames (which will either be a bullish divergence or confirmation depending on whether new lows are made or not).

    That’s what I’m seeing through my crimson glasses. ;-)

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  100. What a superb way to compare markets.  Those charts are fabulous Zimmer.  Thanks

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  101. I went for a run tonight and there was a sign in the park saying we've been invaded by Canadian Goldenrod .Wasn't that your old handle AR ?

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  102. Affirmative good buddy.  Actually it was Studly Goldenrod.  People just called me Studly.

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  103. Kind of you to say SG...errr...I mean AR..

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  104. Hey AR, you bastard!
    Was just talking a little craziness over at Danno's & I thought of you!
    Hope you are well & happy. 
    I do miss our discussions & your humour of course.
    keep on truckin, amigo
    DK
    ps AUDJPY primed & ready for a trip to Hotel Bastardos

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  105. Jeff Cooper was talking about the Hindy today,AR.Our friend Col1 too I believe

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  106. Hola Amigo.  Sorry for the delay.  I haven't checked comments here for a day or two.  I hope I are well and happy too.  I miss the discussions as well bud, but I'm basically not talking 'anywhere'.  As you pointed out a couple of months ago, I guess I got a bit jaded.  But I 'did' write a short article tonight.  You bet, the Aussie/Yen is headed south.  And so is the NASI.

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  107. Hi Buddy.  I can't imagine what they were saying about it.  It's been out of commission and "absolutely disallowed" from issuing a signal since May 3.  It's 'still' not back on line although if we get a bounce over the next few days it will come back on line for the first time in 10 weeks.  Here's a link to the chart that explains "why" it's out of commission.  It's absolutely cast in stone that the 50 day MA on the NYSE must be rising.  It isn't... not yet.  But it won't take much over the next couple of days to put it right.  Only then can we even begin to entertain the HO at all.

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