Here's what's happening I think:
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| Click here for a live and updating chart that also shows the S&P and NDX: |
On a different note... it also looks to me like AAPL is all primed for a pretty serious plunge. I'd be surprised if there aren't some serious sparks after hours and all through the futures session. Not TLT, nor $TNX nor currencies are supporting this goofy ramp job... not one one 'em. It's a bull trap if I've ever seen one.
....
Excellent Chart AR~!
ReplyDeleteI agree. Good one, AR!
ReplyDeleteGood news from Edmonton my liege....it appears rumors of Lord Alberta's demise have been grossly underestimated.He is alive and well and has been seen demolishing trolls and eating pizza.
ReplyDeleteI must really be getting older. I remember a time when US Presidents didn't have weekly secret no-oversight no-transparency "who dies without a hearing" kill list decision meetings (a list that includes US citizens).
ReplyDeleteThe genie's totally out of the bottle now. The rules will loosen, the criteria will expand, and the weekly kill number will grow exponentially. Not too long from now potential troublemakers will be taken out, sort of pre-crime. You know, for domestic tranquility. Of course if you're not saying anything radical, you have nothing to fear, amirite?
The Enlightenment was nice while it lasted. Oh well. 300 years of it was probably enough for anybody anyway.
This generation will go down as the idiots who sleepily let it start happening while they watched their reality TV and couldn't be bothered to pay attention or think what it might mean for the near future.
He never could resist the prospect of a good plunge
ReplyDelete"the situation in Greece just goes from bad to worse."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/5/26_MEP_Nigel_Farage.html
Thanks AR for that excellent observation, and for dropping in again. :)
ReplyDeleteWhat I would like to see though AR, is to see this pattern also reflected in the SPX and DJI, not just the small cap index.. I am not saying this H&S pattern isn't valid as it ticks the right boxes as you point out.. But, is it enough to bet on.. I dunno man.. just my two bobs worth.. I guess what I am saying is, is be careful.. nothing is absolute, at least not yet anyways Lol...
ReplyDeleteChris Ciovacco presents a very good analysis on the case for a bond market (TLT) reversal on Seeking Alpha Treasuries Set Up For Possible Reversal that is worth a read that also includes a video on the weekly chart divergences he is paying attention to. This really is worth a heads up I think.
I've been pretty quiet recently, spending time playing around with the settings of TrendXplorer's latest ThinkOrSwim script studies. His PPO_Histogram ROC study really is state of the art, as is his latest BottomIndicator_HIO tool. Love TX's stuff and highly recommend it for any trader using the TOS platform.
TX's PPO settings are 55, 144 & 34.. I find just a smigeon faster at 34, 89 & 21 is just about right.. Daily MACD is just about to give a bullish cross, but the slower PPO_ROC is on a sell but looks like its trying to turn up. For the bulls this may mean that initial starting rallies to be treated as suspect and should be sold with a view to look for a better low risk set-up further out.
For anyone interested, here's a chart showing TX's BottomIndicator_HIO tool as I have incorporated it into TOS. More about it can be read on TX's blog post here About bottoms, liquidity and risk: HIO, MHCAX and HIO:TLT
ReplyDeleteTo help confirm market lows that are tradeable, I added a Slow Stochastic and McClellan Oscillator studies for additional filtering. Of note, whilst the HIO signals most lows that a tradeable, sometimes the HIO will miss that the McClellan picks up. Likewise though, many times the McClellan does not reach extreme oversold (below -100) at tradeable lows but the HIO does signal.
I added into the McCellan's script code the same bottom arrows TX uses for the BottomIndicator_HIO, set for when McClellen breaks below -100. The HIO though not absolutely perfect does a pretty darn good job at signalling most significant tradeable lows. Hat tip to TX for a brilliant piece of work.. I plan on making this a primary tool for my (BTFD) trading activities that's for sure! Thank you very much TX :-)..
WavePrincipal aka Grand yesterday noted a possible Breadth Thrust is setting up in the McClellan Oscillator, but needs to get above +50 to confirm, currently at 26.. its something worth watching if this rally gets some legs behind it.
There is a head and shoulder pattern in the Dax http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OYnaHbojMgw/T8VNgJRasLI/AAAAAAAAK8w/CFm8LEV7ems/s1600/dax.png
ReplyDeleteUSDJPY : Banzai!
ReplyDeleteSPX weekly chart looking bullish.. We've got the SloStoch down at oversold with price supported at the lower BB and 75ma. Ema's 20 & 40 still on a bull cross and whilst the 20ema has dipped slightly is nowhere near a giving bear signal.. MACD histo is now waning and shows this as just a typical correction in an ongoing cyclical bull market. In fact I'd say it sets up a pretty solid buying opportunity to get long!
ReplyDeleteLooking at it using TX's PPO_Histogram study on a weekly, the Histo shows the downside momentum has been very weak for the start of a bear market, and little to get exited about. Chart attached.
Doing a little extrapolating of the magnitude of swings on the US indexes with corresponding mood waves reflected in the GDOW, I came up with a ballpark target of 1175 for the SP when the GDOW gets to 1620 or below in the Minor 1 wave 5, which I think has started.
ReplyDeleteThen buckle up for the Minor 2 rally.
The timing looks right to take that rally into the last quarter of the year.
Then comes 3 of 3 of P3 down. Even if it doesn't count that way on the US indexes.
hello boys and girls this is my first post here, i recognize most of you from the other place
ReplyDeletei took wave 1 and dragged it over to wave 5, seems to fit very well if 2012 is following a similar wave pattern from 2007
http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/585/spx2007to2012.png
Good one. I do suspect 5 is going to extend and scare a few horsies though. Just the thing to trigger QE3 and a big retrace.
ReplyDeletei think 5 ends at or just below to 200 dma which is 1283 and a half or so, but i'm nervous with the spx hanging around the .618 retracement from the May 23rd low
ReplyDeleteHey there Maxie. Great to see you here. Always loved your contributions... welcome.
ReplyDeleteKeep half an eye on the situation in the Middle East and Southwest Asia, folks. Russia and China are both rattling sabers over Iran and Israel. If/when that all goes to hell, you might want to think about trying to be ready for it ahead of time. The markets will get all weird on us if/when that happens.
ReplyDeleteAUD/JPY looks to have started its 5 down on the daily. Here's a fun thing -- if you extend it down using the current wave trajectory to the 72.00 target zone, it hits around the end of June. June 19-20 is the next scheduled FOMC meeting/press conference, a Summary of Economic Projections meeting.
ReplyDeleteAR hows it going, it's my pleasure to be here, looks like you have the cream of the crop over here
ReplyDeleteHere we have the potential Cup & Handle pattern I mentioned earlier.. Hey AR... you should've dedicated this post to the 'ole Cup & Handle... Get Ready! for a rally lol...
ReplyDeleteGold
ReplyDeleteFourth time at the same support line,
extended from the Dec Low.
The Dec Low remains unbroken.
Then reversal to above yesterdays close
forming a green hammer candle.
For the market to really collapse, QE has to be tried to failure. Until then confidence in it will prevent a huge crash. And another round of QE probably means one more rocket ride up in gold, maybe to new all-time highs. That's why I'm not counting a top in gold yet. It could be in, but there's a chance it's got another huge push left in it.
ReplyDeleteYeah the people who hang out here are super good folks. It's quiet here. Peaceful. You can hear yourself think in here and talk to a buddy without having to scream over the noise. I've been on hiatus a bit lately though and imagine that'll continue for a while longer. That's just something I'm playing day to day... kinda tired of the whole deal at the moment. I don't feel like writing. I don't feel like talking much. Don't even talk much at Pretzel's where people seem to have accepted me like they did way back in the first days over at the other site. What wazzat... about 3 years ago? Two maybe? I dunno. Anyway, I'm a bit disillusioned at the moment and am just focusing on my own little world for now. By the way have you seen my pants?
ReplyDeleteseems quiet, I'm getting a little tired having to scroll down through all the garbage, check the wash for the pants
ReplyDeleteYes, and trillions in debt
ReplyDeletedomestic and foreign
to be refinanced,
indicates more US and world QE.
+ low interest rates thru 2013 at least.
etc.
I have placed my bet on another push up.
"...check the wash for the pants"
ReplyDeleteOk I'll do that when I get home.
Good call Mr. DK.
ReplyDeleteNow it's put in a lower low and followed your count to a "t" ... 5th wave of the C.
Do you think we can call it close to done with big wave 2? At 79.76 now.
I think I'll take a nibble soon.
The peeps in here are the best.
ReplyDeleteCheers to AR for gathering a master mind.
And since trolls kill a master mind, this one ought to last.
Here here! 3 cheers for Alberta who rocks.
NZDUSD is sitting on a big big weekly H&S neckline right here. I am long off it, and underwasser, but just an FYI if anybody is playing it. IF that snaps I dunno, but let me know where the spare key to your bunker is.
ReplyDeleteNibble taken.
ReplyDeleteEspecially in neck lines.
ReplyDeletehttp://i835.photobucket.com/albums/zz279/SoulJester/THE_BIG_C_WAVE.png
ReplyDeleteExcellent yearly chart to put things in perspective ... right at the 78.6 retrace! Very interesting.
ReplyDeleteAnd we're at a decision point. Down surely looks more likely than up. Merci buckets!
Welcome. We still have time to trade it before it gets crazy if it is right. I think it is the most logical conclusion unless they break that NYSE channel.
ReplyDeleteFeb 22 2014 ... that gives me some good persective for that feeling i've missed much of the move. Plenty of the wave to catch. For sure.
ReplyDeleteOK, USDJPY ... you put in a nice little 5th wave on the C as per DK.
ReplyDeleteAnd you've gone nice and flat ... low volatility on this potential base building at the bottom.
I nibble upon thee.
With a tight stop ... early perhaps, but perhaps you be done with wave 2.
We shall see what your perogative is in the morn.
Oye will join you again on an overnight USDJPY long..let's see if we got the runner this time.
ReplyDeleteGood point ... hadn't thought of it that way. They gotta try QE since they will not let the entire financial system implode go without a fight, even if they know it's useless, they would likely try one more time for the expected psychological benefit, albeit mistaken. And it's probably what's kept all these corrections looking controlled and not imulsive ... even in the currencies. The continued expectation the central banks will not allow a crash. The continued belief they can stop it.
ReplyDeleteEnjoy your break, and don't worry bout us peeps ... we'll behave and won't need any policing.
ReplyDeleteOff to bed GB....good to see you!
ReplyDeleteYes, good luck. I think it's worth a shot. A set up with a potential of a tight stop.
ReplyDeleteIf not, then I think 78 is the next target ... lots of points clustered there back when it was resistance. Would make a nice new support area. Lots of points make it a strong line.
But 79ish is a nice 61.8 spot also.
I dunno SJ... I like to take one week, maybe one month at a time... But a year! lol..
ReplyDeleteThanks, me too and you too ... this was a bit late for me. Like 3 hours past my bed time. Ooops.
ReplyDeleteJPY and a run got me all wide awake.
Good night you guys... 3pm now in China... another 12 hours to go till bedtime lol...
ReplyDeleteFollow-up daily (for the weekly posted elsewhere this weekend http://mediacdn.disqus.com/uploads/mediaembed/images/274/3708/original.jpg ) with keys items that I'm watching on the SPX.
ReplyDeleteHey Grego
ReplyDeleteso far, so good.
Looks like 5 down so far, but could be just (1) of c. but worth at least a nibble, as you rightly say.
I have some targets:
C=Ax0.618 at 77.91
Y=W at....yes, you guessed it : 77.91....spooky
A jobs announcement to sit through at 8:30 EST ... surely that will cause a violent move and counter move.
ReplyDeleteHey, it looks like 78.60 would be an ending diagonal, and if you divide by 100 you get the Fib number 0.786. Why those geeky japanese ruler-wielding currency traders! But it's a tad beyond the 78.6% retrace (79). Sneaky.
ReplyDeleteI am not seeing the bears get their act together with this decline guys... Check this weekly chart of SPX.. they can't seem to punch it through the lower BB or the 75ma let alone get the 20ema to cross the 40... Weekly Stochastics are now down at oversold, MACD Histo shows the downside momentum has been rather pitiful and now dissipated...it looks to me the sellers have all dried up! What's going on?? If this was the start of P3 I'd expect to see a hell of a lot more damage being done that this!!!
ReplyDeleteStopped out on the USDJPY long last night. The NZDUSD stop held overnight, barely, so I doubled it this morning. Peace. Om.
ReplyDeleteThanks. I am bold guy.
ReplyDeleteNice Charts, Mr. Rev.!!
ReplyDeleteYes.... Love it!!! lol... ;-)
ReplyDeleteYes, not fun that one.
ReplyDeleteNow the lower level of 78.24 is about where the old resistance was before the big move from 76 to 84. Perhaps THIS will become new support.
And there it is.. the dreaded truncated fifth!!!.. posted 10 mins ago by WavePrincipal.Blogspot.com aka Grand. Its one of many wave count variables.. but I think its looking good for the bulls at this stage!
ReplyDeleteTBT (bonds) putting in a daily bar Doji candle. Bearish for bonds, bullish for bond yields..
ReplyDeleteIt's P3, I truly believe, but the "meat" is just ahead. We have a Minor 2 rally first. And since it will be another wave 2, it will act like a bull wave. Then it's Minor 3 of Intermediate 3 of P3 -- the wheels come off, the dominoes tumble, the economic towers pancake down, and so on.
ReplyDeleteWhat's going on now is lingering confidence in QE. Many investors are champing at the bit to front run another round of easing. They're looking now for bad news that's bad enough to be good news in terms of sparking another round. No one wants to sell when they're all looking for that big easing rally. And when it comes, it will launch a rally like a rocket.
But this next round, I believe, will be the last effective one. The downward pressures of a massive sinking social mood wave will finally overwhelm the effectiveness of QE. Granted, the intervention-distorted US indexes may set new highs first, throwing a lot of big-picture counts into chaos. But the rally will inevitably yield to tremendous social mood pressures and fail.
Of course I'll be watching the GDOW, the CAC, a couple of currency pairs, and one or two other things, which I believe will continue to be a more accurate reflection of real social mood.
When QE fails, there's nothing left, and the bottom drops out. I don't think anyone is really prepared for the magnitude of what will follow. Financial institutions are heavily exposed to risk now (including owning most of the equities), with no real exit strategy (as GregInBaltimore has pointed out several times). There is no way the FDIC or even the whole nation can underwrite the losses on the scale that will ensue. I believe everyone will be affected one way or another.
Then you have the specter of social unrest, and a government prepared to push back hard and violently, even thuggishly, and an atmosphere ripe for witch hunts, blame-shifting, and demagoguery, and it's going to be, well, "interesting times."
Bonds.. here it is again on $TYX Treasury Yield 30 Years daily chart.
ReplyDeleteOk got five waves up.. may wanna think about buying the pullback for a trade..
ReplyDeleteI really like you Papa! You sound like one of the nicest guys.. Just wanna say I respect your views, opinions and outlook.. I am currently bullish US stock markets and will turn bearish when I see a top is in that's for sure my friend, just don't see evidence of it just yet.
ReplyDeleteI used to be a believer in P3 but I kept losing money being hopeful for lower lows that never came, so I gave up on being bearish and turned bullish, then I started making money lol... But when I do finally see 'the' top I plan to sell the high or the Minor wave 2 high.. just don't believe we've seen it yet and feel this bull market could carry on a bit longer. I don't have a timing window for a top but it could come at the next rally high, or it could carry on for much longer. I wish I had a crystal ball lol..
BTW.. I think in your wave count.. you mean Minor 3 of Intermediate (1) of P3 I think, not Intermediate 3?
Lots of candle tails indicative of sellers having dried up I think...2Day chart view of SSO..
ReplyDeleteYeah, I get the degrees muddled because I don't keep a chart in front of me, and because there's a slim-but-fair chance we're actually in the higher degree Intermediate 1 down, with an Intermediate 2 rally coming, followed by the big I3 of P3. Even Minor 3 of Intermediate 1 could be devastating though, if it coincides with the end of QE confidence. I can't imagine where the bottom might be.
ReplyDeleteSome real craziness in the market today. I'm hoping for a pop into the close to short.
ReplyDeleteA few years ago I subscribed to the EWT for a short time, EW theorist newsletter, and I remember seeing a chart by Bob Prechter in which he showed his ideal P1, P2, P3, P4 & P5 scenario down into 2016 timeframe in log scale with the Dow finishing somewhere below 1,000 points.. Last year or year before that I saw Dan Darby mimic the same thing on a chart in his blog.. Well, the chart look mind blowingly devistating for stocks put it that way... A picture tells a thousand words so here is an image of that chart by Prechter showing two cycle degree bearish wave counts. This was in May 2010. Personally, I'm agnostic this scenario.. but whatever comes, hey.... I'II trade it!! lol.... :-)
ReplyDeletethis is what i'm thinking
ReplyDeletehttp://img256.imageshack.us/img256/1250/spx053112.png
The broad market as seen in the NYA and RUT was relatively stronger again. Nice looking price action on the DJT too. I think that if the stock market is to get moving higher again, the broad market has got to play along, at least at first, and it looks like it's trying. Lower shadow sticks in general, showing signs of buying at support, or just a weak bounce area? In general it's happening just above some sort of identifiable support, so, theoretically it's buying at support, which means that if that support fails . . . whoosh?
ReplyDeleteme too.
ReplyDeleteIf one were to apply this to the GLD chart, it would seem to be a pretty clear marker for selling/bouncing at least with respect to gold and probably with respect to equities as well.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thepatternsite.com/tb.html Triple Bottom Setup. Seems like if we were to break a trendline connecting the GLD daily 5/29 and 5/18 highs, that would be a buy signal on the setup. If the setup is valid.
Talking swing trade, not any bull bear thesis on this one. Just a thought. I don't trade these patters that much so if it is wrong let me know and if you don't by all means don't trade it!!!
RacerJohn says it is no good. Prolly go with him on that one.
ReplyDeleteUghh....gonna try that USDJPY here again and see if I can get risk free on it...a little late to this party.
ReplyDeleteThank you for that. I have been pondering the past few weeks how to trade something like that. I am waiting for 5 down to begin with and then 3 up to confirm a larger sell along with some indicators to break into bear market territory.
ReplyDeleteI think a big sell like that would not be tradable (for me) with the way we traded this bull market correction. I think you would need a simple trend following daily chart and a take profit/add back on strategy with no countertrend. It would have to be simple and price/moving average trend system based because indicators would get cooked.
I use envlopes and bands, but I tried to find something easier and simpler. Anyway, just in the interest of sharing, here is something simple from Jason Perle's Demark book with minimal tweaking. There is a little more too it, so get the book if you are interested, but I have followed this on currency and equities for the past month to see the rythem and flow of it and it is quite nice. Here it is, fwiw:Bullish Trend Trading
Bearish Trend Trading
I know somebody is going to think a big sell off like that I am just going to hold it to the end. That is ideal. But we all know we are then going to harvest too soon, or too much, and not know whether we should get back in and where and so forth. This, I think, helps. And it is a daily chart, with clear lines and simple. But, I have been playing with it for a month and thinking about how to trade off it.
Basically, you would want to take some off below the battle line, and put some back on at the battle line, and keep your stops on the core position above the battle line enough so they do not get hit. Only be afraid if you get a close and an open on the wrong side of the battle line.
Anyway, this is not a top or bottom caller, but something I am working on to allow pyramiding into positions with trend in the middle of big moves. Like any trend system, it gets chewed up a bit when the market is not trending, but the candle counting aspect of it helps with that.
Peace. Om.
This moight be it finally.
ReplyDeleteHey AR, have done a post on the following chart, but still wanted to throw it out here too.
ReplyDeleteChart is based/inspired upon an original by John Murphy, from Stockcharts.com
This is about as bearish a chart as I've ever seen. A nifty way to see a good summary of those world indexes, rather than looking at each individual one.
Anyone wanna be bullish after looking at that for an hour?
Good wishes
Good find on those candle tails ... a good bottoming sign to be sure.
ReplyDeleteI think it's still worth a shot. I sold 50% of my position in the stop run this morning, and kept the rest with a lower stop below 78 ... because 78.2 looks like it should be solid support ... old resistance with lots of bars clustered under it.
ReplyDeleteWill add to it if it can clear a previous high or goes sideways long enough.
Thanks, you've written a very clear summary of mood keeping us afloat, and an excellent forecast of future mood collapse.
ReplyDeleteThere's going to come a day soon that today's causal explanations are laughably irrelevant.
ReplyDelete"US jobless claims worse than expected so the dollar weakens against the yen."
Really?! Some day soon all these data points the HFT'ers have been programmed to have predictive value will matter not one iota.
Why? Because deflation will be all that matters. Who cares a rats ass about the "predictive value" of jobless data each month when dollars are in insatiable demand because too few of them exist after debts continue to be written off, defaulted, restructured. Does less robust job market matter more than the trillion of yens (so far announced) being printed as there is no other way to fund Japan's rollover debt of 4 trillion this year?
This market has gotten so whacked about pricing accurately, it's going to have to correct massively to get to a true value. Like bonds at record prices (record low yields). That's completely missing the premium that should be charged for risk of not repaying, and currency risk. And there in lies the wonderful investment opportunity for those who see it coming.
Long dollar. Short bonds. Short equities.
I like the volume on the three bounce days ... high volume and a finish in the top third of the bar ... looks like volume support. On the other hand this tripple bottom could also be a 1-2, i-ii.
ReplyDeleteWhen thinking in terms of a "long grinding bear market" that just seem absolutely devastating and relentless, one can turn to the 1929-1932 bear for study. For the kind of big mama bear that Prechter eludes us to, I think its a good idea to remain focused on the 'weekly' timeframe more so than daily. This is a weekly chart of the 1929-1932 big mama bear market, with standard Bollinger Bands, 20&40ema's, SloStoch & MACD studies.
ReplyDeleteYou are quite correct when saying 'indicators would get cooked' because look at MACD.. It dropped below it's zero line and remained locked below it for over three straight years. Pretty much useless! However, using the weekly chart we have the SlowStoch and 20ema offering us some use for selling the bear market's rally highs, at least!
Picking bottoms to harvest or cover shorts is the tricky part. Each wave down needs to be treated in its own right.. no wave will be the same! For one thing, looking at the weekly we should know a low is fast approaching when the SloStoch oscillator gets down to oversold. Granted it can lock in below the 20 line and flat line for a bit, it can also double dip as price briefly rallies for a few weeks before capitulating on the second dip. Usually the second dip on a weekly SloStoch is the end of the wave before a larger degree rally unfolds, so definitely get out of shorts upon this set up, and even opening long positions for the rally would be low risk I think.
I am working with TX's studies developed for the TOS platform for identifying tradable bottoms to cover shorts or open longs, and have written about some of this is posts below. I think his PPO_Histogram ROC study is well worth some study.. The Histogram has a built in colour change system. Fortunately I have the 2007-2009 bear market to study it with, and am looking at different timeframes and settings for fine tuning. I think its developed more for the daily timeframe too, and its ROC setting throws out divergences that are as plain as day. The histogram is very very good at detecting a slackening in the trend and a turn. Combined with other indicator tools (Fisher) becomes one heck of a useful tool imo and should be very useful during whatever type or degree of bear market is ahead of us.
I am confident is selling most or all rally highs with a reasonable degree of accuracy in a big mama bear market, but as I said, I think its the bottoms that are the difficult part.. But I am on to it!
Coiling within a descending triangle on the daily. Nice setup. Well defined entry levels with tight stop loss levels as well (for both shorts and longs). Possible big move either way. Looks like a very good setup to me with very good risk/reward.
ReplyDeleteJoseph Russo at http://www.elliottwavetechnology.com/ trades these swing line patterns all the time on futures 30min time frame.. Russo probably has this line marked on his charts with an upside target already issued.. don't know what Racer John is on about 'no good'??
ReplyDeleteSetting up in a few places. Shown on my GDOW updated chart the last time I posted it a couple of weeks ago (just the H&S, not the fractal). Lots going on here. These can go either way. Lots to be on the lookout for. I think one thing's for sure, a breakdown would be so important that I imagine it would be so evident so as to leave no doubts about what would be happening (i.e., war, EU breakup, etc.).
ReplyDeleteAn intermediate term look at gold (as seen in GLD).
ReplyDeleteKeeping in mind the negative alignment of the daily SMA's (50 below the 100 and both below the 200), the recent "rebound" out of oversold on the part of the oscillator and momentum indicators shown on the chart doesn't look all that hot. The descending triangle, triple bottom, or perhaps even better described as a bearish pennant or a bear flag, has formed just below what I consider to be a very important price support/resistance level. Obviously, if that level can be regained it would not only be positive from that point of view, but it would also be a breakout higher out of the pennant - a double buy signal, but in a bear environment (defined by the negative alignment in the daily SMA's). A break to new lows OTOH, well, I'll leave you with the rest of what I've pointed out on the chart posted below to answer that.
From a monetary point of view, I've been of the opinion now for over a year that Bernanke, world CB's, and Co. want to bring commods down. How far down obviously depends on how much pain they can endure with the current liquidity and solvency issues they are faced with. How much pain are they willing to endure? Or better stated, how much CAN they endure? Can they wait until Gold trades $1,200? . . . the million dollar question.
That's a pretty busy chart that HRev lol... but I've gotta say, I really like the Weekly GDOW wave count you propose and I am warm to this scenario. Really excellent work this is!, puts my wave count analysis to shame lol... Thanks for putting it up.
ReplyDeleteWith Europe doing more to harm than good, Spain has begun to fire warning shots. The message is clear, "if you're not going to collaborate, we're going to look at other possibilities" and that could even be interpreted to mean, "go it alone". My feeling is that if the peseta were still in existence, it would be rising (balanced budget constitutional amendment, sweeping macroeconomic reforms, etc.) and that financing would be relatively easy to come by since Spain could negotiate directly with the likes of the U.S. and China (to name but two examples) and would not be hog tied so-to-speak by the "detrimental third party intermediary" that Europe has seemingly become.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/spains-de-guindos-future-of-euro-at-stake-2012-06-01
http://en.mercopress.com/2012/06/01/spain-calls-on-us-and-imf-for-political-support-in-helping-the-banking-system
http://www.zerohedge.com/
The situation is becoming increasingly fluid IMHO, and when it comes down to survival, it's natural that people start playing hard ball.
Great chart, especially since that ETF omits the distortion of the intervened US indexes.
ReplyDeleteThanks, arguably..if that plays out, its suggesting sp'800 by late autumn.
ReplyDelete--
I've some other reasons for saying that, but I'll cover that across the weekend. Good wishes for June!
*good morning legion of AR.
ReplyDeleteGot flak jacket, got Bunker?
Am looking for a good VIX spike today, 28/29...maybe 30. If the market gets upset...then 31/35 - with sp'1260/50
--
Morning Doom.. yeah, once the low is in it should be a very good low risk entry point to get aggressive long these markets.
ReplyDeleteHey HRev... looks like the gold market answered your calling!
ReplyDeleteCopper refusing to play along though. Unexpectedly bad econ data out of the States. The first reaction is usually wrong . . . . Like you said, the jury is still out.
ReplyDeleteAnd you're right about timing thing I think. Things are stretched to the limit, either we see some impressive across the board reversals, or the toy breaks!?!?
I've recently become a fan of John's!
ReplyDeleteAnd I tend to agree with his current modeling too (albeit with much more basic analysis on my part).
Nice propositions. Much more in line with "normal" wave 4 expectations for the SuperCycle IV as well.
ReplyDeleteNot that Prechter's couldn't happen, just that the probabilities are not exactly in his favor . . . for more reasons than one. ;-)
"pretty unbelievable.."
ReplyDeleteI'll second that.
Man, it looks to me like the momentum indicators are getting all re-set, opening the door for another thrust lower. Wow! It's possible.
ReplyDeleteSame kind of fractal on the NYSE, but shorter term, shown on the daily provisional. Longer term context (so obvious, it goes without comment) on the weekly provisional.
ReplyDeleteYeah his popularity is growing and fair dues too.. he puts out a lot of very interesting analysis with loads of models.. His website is a wonder.. HR, gotta ask out of curiosity, how do you manage to draw on BigCharts and save it? there must be a trick to it! lol.. Thanks..
ReplyDeleteLooks very possible AR.. Also looks like the 240min SloSto oscillator is the one to watch as its now tracking down..If that one locks in, then focus on the daily.. And could this spike up in gold be a last chance for longs to head for the exits before a big swoosh down! I dunno man but its something to think about.
ReplyDeleteLook how far the 10 year treasury yield has stepped outside its lower BB.. either two things will happen in the next day or two.. one is price steps back in and consolidates sideways before another big move down, or it rallies hard from this level to end the yield decline.. I dunno which.. if its the former, bad things continue to happen in the Euro zone, stocks decline further, yields continue to plummet, if the latter, something big happens that really rocks these markets. Any comments? anyone..
ReplyDeleteHere's a look at SPX using TrendXplorer's BottomIndicator_HIO tool. Hasn't issued a signal yet even with today's decline. Either it signals early next week or it misses, so I'm watching this to see how it goes.. I'm also tracking a positive divergence showing up on the McCellan. Again, worth paying attention to for a forming low in this decline. GN from China and wish you all have a great weekend ahead, Chairman.
ReplyDeleteNo, you're right, you can't do it.
ReplyDeleteI grab a screen shot, same size everytime, do the TA in Fireworks, save the .png file, and then it's all there for the next time when I grab the screen shot and then cut and paste the previous work over the new screen shot (and then I do whatever updating I want). Most of what I do is done this way. The "templates" are saved in the Fireworks .png file and it's cut and paste once a template has been developed. You've got to use the same initial settings on the chart, and it the shorter the time frame, the quicker it outdates.
This Gann daily will work for a while, probably as long as it's valid, but there will be a day when retirement will come. ;-)
There's going to be a lot of "Black Monday" talk this weekend, and not without merit.
ReplyDeleteThe setup is there, and the argument that we're inside a 3 of 3 (on many indices) is hard to refute.
Embrace Teh Doooom!
ReplyDelete(If ya can't change it, go with it and make it work for ya.)
Alberta sure nailed it with this post!
ReplyDeleteSo much for that, I will never look at lots of candle shadows as signs of bottoming again.. lol..
ReplyDeleteYeah I thought there must be some other drawing software involved.. Good to know, I will look into Fireworks..
ReplyDeleteI've used big BigCharts for years and refer to the oscillators often. The SloStoch 5,5,3 setting (faster) on a daily chart behaves exactly like a 4 hour chart with 14,4,3 settings on freestockcharts.
Just never knew how folks did TA drawings on it.. Thanks for the info and the methodology too..I've never studied Gann TA... Chartrambler uses Gann all the time.. Pehaps I should read up on it! thanks bud.
Two important points.
ReplyDelete1) Gann methods at the expert level can be really complicated.
2) I am a Gann novice.
;-)
At present, I limit myself to finding Gann angles as they relate to rising and falling support/resistance to complement my Fib. fan, channeling and basic trendline work. The Gann grid on the GDOW chart is another result of those efforts. Again, I'm still learning Gann, when I have time and necessity - the basics have integrated fine with my overall analysis and I don't really have much reason to spend much more time delving further in the subject at this time - right now I prefer to invest my "free time" in learning more from John Hampson, for example.
Geesh ... a good lesson that there need to be about 3-4 things lining up I guess. I think "they" can move the market enough to set up a trick sign. Guess it was still under that moving average which was still set up to be resistance. Anyway, I like the tails as one sign especially in the currency markets.
ReplyDeleteHere's what that Gann 2x1 from the 2009 low looks like with possible parallel channeling.
ReplyDeleteKeep in mind that Gann lines shift with changes in time frame (as you'll note by comparing these weeklies with the daily posted above). Which do I give more importance? Whichever I think has greater price action confirmation. In this case, the longer term, multi-year weekly "base chart" has an abundance of price confirmation points, and, as a result, I give more weight to those weekly "angles" than I'm presently giving the dailies.
there are a lot of different approaches and techniques within Gann and different folks home in on different ones.Bill did use Gann angles a lot in his book (Gann made Easy I think its called) but nowadays seems to concentrate more on time cycles and price divivsion/extension of ranges.Gann Global (Smithson) focuses entirely on long term historical cycle analysis and someone else may focus on the Square of 9 .Its a lot more disparate than Elliott
ReplyDeleteAnd then I'd like to see more confluence of support before getting all jazzed up. ;-)
ReplyDeleteGot it! I note the weekly is in Arithmetic scale too. I put this same lines on my weeky SPX chart exactly as you have them and looks like next week's touch point would be around 1243ish if price decides to head lower, which I think it will do, and the following week its around 1248..
ReplyDeleteIt does appear the selling pressure will continue into next week, but there is the lack of volume. For the last two weeks the volume has been low and its diminished whereas it would normal increase as price drops lower. This weeks volume was unusually light.. When I look at the 30 year treasury bonds, both futures and yield, plus the TLT, it looks like this move has more to go.. and this 5th could extend much further similar to a commodities style blow off peak.. the whole picture is starting to look like a crash in the making for risk assets.. John H doesn't seem all that phased.. thinks its a brilliant opportunity to add to positions! Its starting to look and feel down right scary just now!
Happy Saturday, AR~
ReplyDeleteNice call. Now that the whole world has turned bearish, it would be smart to watch VIX -- which is showing signs of topping. It's pennies from completing two Crab patterns and its IHS target of 28.10. Friday's high is also the .382 of the 48 to 13.66 plunge. On top of that, some pretty compelling channels getting tagged.
Have a great weekend.
Tired of you sending the filth emails. Maybe they need to know about you here as well.
ReplyDelete???
ReplyDeleteAhh G'day folks.. Just after Sunday midday here in the land of Chinese Democracy.. loads of corrupt government officials.. what can I say.. Mao would be proud!! lol... How's Obama doing?? Yep just as bad.. the lying cheating sack of sh_t! That's my rant over.
ReplyDeleteSid posted on his blog an Expanded Flat count for wave 2. I was thinking of this wave count myself as very possible and worth watching. C wave up, last chance for any longs to get out before wave 3 kills! http://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.com/2012/05/new-bearish-developments-agonizing.html#comment-536920923
Here's that wave 2 expanded flat (preferred count) by Sid at http://elliottwavepredictions.com/
ReplyDeleteNow I am confused.
ReplyDeleteThanks Pebbles.. I take it you are still expecting/looking for a rally to new a recovery high in the SPX (contrary to the herd's bearish expectations) and this VIX analysis supports that view?
ReplyDeleteI started going long Friday and I am going to go longer this coming week. If it fails I have a losing trade. But, this is the end of Swoon into June for me, so looking for some things to get long. Crash is still on the table and a concern, of course.
ReplyDeleteI am waiting for market to stick a low (if it doesn't crash), but am going with this until it fails. There will be a decision point where your guy has it ending and this has it continuing. This isn't done yet because I need to see the low, but this is the general idea. Swoon into June was set to End June 1-4, so here we are. A day or so of pukage more, or not, would not surprise me.
ReplyDeletehttp://i835.photobucket.com/albums/zz279/SoulJester/Guess_Work.png
I think so too buddy.
ReplyDeleteSorry Pebble, but I couldn't even get to your message until Sunday morning. So Happy Sunday right back at ya. I hear ya. I got out of the market completely on Friday afternoon. There are some signs showing up now that a low is likely due pretty quick here. I know bears have vision of a gigantic gap lower on Monday and I've even had sinful thoughts like that myself. But I'm seeing some divergences already that suggest a bounce is coming soon, if not Monday. Also the indexes have dropped down into what I had earlier earmarked as likely support 'zones' based on past high volumes. But based on what I'm seeing on the weekly charts and based on my own perception of the EW count, for now I'm not expecting any bounce to amount to much. So I'm standing aside for now expecting that the market is gonna show us that the next play should be a short entry into a strong (and yes, still existent, lol) downtrend. Keep in mind that my success rate at accurately labeling EW counts is running somewhere around 7%.
ReplyDeleteI know you're considering a move up into the 1470 area as a possibility and I'd mentioned to you that your chart does indeed have a real good look to it. It just looks 'right'. For our friends, I'll post this link to your SPX Weekly chart that I'm referring to. Yet I'm being influenced by the fact that the 10 week MAs have rolled lower and that's not something that happens very often. To me it suggests that another climb up into that area of 1470ish is unlikely. So I'm torn right now bro, but totally open minded. For the next day or two then I'm expecting a bounce that fizzles. All the best bud, and keep up the great work over there.
I haven't seen anybody slam on Pretzel at Daneric's blog?
ReplyDeleteI go with the weekly set ups too. Think you are correct in said strategy for scaling into longs around the pivot low.. See what the market offers for its next rally.
ReplyDeleteYou may be interested in Sid's latest forecasts for treasuries and USD/JPY.. http://elliottwavepredictions.com/http:/elliottwavepredictions.com/japanese-yen/elliott-wave-analysis-usdjpy-currency-pair-sid-elliottwavepredictionscom-3/
ReplyDeleteElliott Wave hocus pocus from yours truly.
ReplyDeleteNice article that once again brings to the fore the lopsided extremes we are now seeing in many markets. http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/full-on_panic_into_t-bonds/
ReplyDeleteReminded me again of this article from a couple of weeks ago. http://www.safehaven.com/article/25580/euro-to-surge
And got me scouring again for more sentiment data (especially on the EUR/USD and PM's). http://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.com.es/2012/06/sentiment-stretches-to-further-extremes.html (posted Friday morning).
This is another look at the possibly developing fractal of the VEU etf that PermabearDoomster posted a chart of earlier. I took the left shoulder and copied and flipped and pasted it in about the same place the right shoulder is forming so far.
ReplyDeleteTo recap, the VEU is a fund of all the world indexes EXCEPT the US. So, like the GDOW, it may be a good reflection of actual social mood without the distortion of intervention in the US indexes.
And what this might show is the kind of tremendous downward social mood forces future intervention will be trying to overcome. The US indexes may briefly make new highs on the next round of QE, but it could be the last effective round of QE -- the one that fails due to the overwhelming weight of declining social mood. And when confidence in QE finally fails, the bottom could be a long, long way down.
http://i.imgur.com/xizzy.jpg
I've got a bad feeling about global stock markets on Monday, starting with Asia.. Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Australia will all tank hard from the open playing catch up.. see what US futures do.. if they're down hard too its a capitulation into the full moon.. the week should start out ugly, stabilise mid week, then rally.
ReplyDeleteApplying my indicator analysis to this weekly VIX chart now (see below in response to Pebbles), it again looks like Summer 2007. The other analogue would be October 2008, but this does not look like October 2008 yet.
ReplyDeleteIn Summer 2007, we got an approximately 12% rally in SPX.
Even if it were October 2008, we got an approximately 20% rally in SPX then. So that is actually the more bullish ST analogue. There were lots of shorts to cover and squeeze then though, and that was far deeper into the sell.
Original Swoon into June Analysis
Indicator Analysis from Week of May 18
Red Line Scenario from Week of May 18
Rough Draft: I need a low to finish this scenario
As you can see in the rough draft, there would be a decision point in late June (for now, no low yet to finish it) where the two paths may diverge in the wood. Sharing.
Peace. Om.
I'd say that's reasonably probable. ;-)
ReplyDeleteThat's what our friend John Hampson is thinking as well.
He also points out some more trading extremes:
"US Dollar is up 21 out of 25 days and Euro DSI just hit 7% bulls – US
Treasury 10 / 30 Yr yields are at 220 year record with DSI hitting 95%
bulls."
"Dax stocks above the 50MA are now at zero."
I have. But I'll be damned if I'm gonna go back there and dig it up just to prove it.
ReplyDeleteThose guys weren't from Daneric's board and the were fighting with Katzo, no slamming on Pretzel. It was obvious that fight with Katzo was from another board as were the participants. What is was about, I don't know. I haven't seen a regular contributor slam on Pretzel on Daneric's board.
ReplyDeleteI get your feelings on Daneric's board, and I absolutely can see why you have that opinion and do not judge your opinion at all. But, you should not hate other people who hang out there just because they hang out there. I have never insulted you or Pretzel. About the only person I have insulted is Wags. But, I have moved beyond that because it isn't healthy.
I have no idea what the fight with Katzo was about and don't care. I have seen Katzo state that he uses the posters on Daneric's as contrarian evidence. I think that is a bit cold to lump all the posters on a blog in with a select few of novices or those who are just learning, or trolls. I could go to any blog on the internet and pick out novices and slam on them and claim I use them to be contrarian. BUT, that seems wrong and troll like to me. People have all levels of experience and to pick out a few novices on a blog, slam on them, and claim that they and the whole blog is contrarian seems wrong to me. Whether that is what the fight with Katzo is about that got taken to Daneric's board, I have no idea.
Just my two sense. I don't care to defend any blog against another or rip on any blog or blog owner. I like posting here. I like posting on Danerics. And, I like posting on Pretzels.
The obsession with Daneric's blog on here and other places isn't healthy, imho. Imma out of here. Thanks all. It has been nice.
ReplyDeleteSJ, you come to conclusions and I have no idea where you get them from.
ReplyDeleteI said: "I see our friend Pretzel getting slammed over at troll central.. And he was. So was Katzo. I never said who did it nor do I care. What do you mean "those guys weren't from<.u> Daneric's board? What does it matter? It's on his board, always on his board, where this kind of vitriol is sprewed. End of story.
So where do you get the notion that I "hate on other people who hang out there just because they hang out there"? If they don't mind hanging around in somebody's house where guests are allowed to shit on the floor, they can have it. That doesn't mean I hate anybody. It just means that I won't be hanging around with them over there. Some of my best friends still hang out over there, but fewer and fewer every day. I'm certainly not impressed with their choices though. I'd rather hang out with them somewhere else but it's obvious that isn't gonna happen. C'est la vie.
See ya.
ReplyDeleteTomMcClellan has a bottom June 5th through 7th FWIW using his Eurodollar COT ... take care sj
ReplyDeleteI am not interested in... being in a gang
ReplyDelete*Kicks over wastepaper basket*
Thug life.
Just kidding, SJ. I hate to see you go. Seems tempers can get a little short. Maybe P3 is affecting everybody.
I don't post anymore at the other blog but I don't begrudge anyone who continues to do so. It's just a personal thing -- I don't approve of how Daneric handled the troll situation. (Which is to say he didn't handle it at all, and even at one point blamed the victims and said he considered banning them. I consider that not just sticking one's head in the sand and enabling abuse, but abusive itself.) But if anyone continues to post there I'm totally cool with it. Free country and all that.
There seems to be talk of central banks having meetings to talk about the need for more concerted efforts. QE3 perhaps.
ReplyDeleteI think if we got more QE3 this time it would become the exit plan for big banks still sitting on the leveraged bets they made with QE1 and QE2 borrowed money. And would not stimulate the markets much at all.
I agree Greg, any further "accommodation" would most likely be greeted with horror and capitulation that it doesn't work. But I don't think more QE is on the table at all. I don't think it's coming and everybody is fully expecting it. I think when that realization finally sinks in... "Whataya mean... no more QE at all?"... that's when the S is gonna HTF. That's when we'll see the floodgates open up and really uncork the big wave down we've all been referring to as P3. I could be wrong of course that those are my suspicions right now.
ReplyDeleteThe cited markets above all followed through playing catch up as expected.. Taiwan was down over 3%.. all markets down pretty hard.. Positive divergences are now evident signalling this last wave down is an ending move after which we'll get the rally.. ZB futures so far haven't followed through and looking at the intra-day oscillator picture on the ZB (30-year bond) and ES I'd say there's a good chance the low for wave 5 is now in place. But is it 5 waves?.. On the ES from the 3/27 high its looking more like a double zig-zag than a 5 wave impulse and the Dow's higher high on 5/1 supports that view.
ReplyDeleteIts also possible this low has just marked the bottom of a Major wave A, with wave B up and C down still to play out.. I've got an intermediate-term cycle bottoming around late August through September time frame that would fit for a wave C low. Anyway, I'm just throwing some ideas around, thinking out loud.. Later in the week I will post some charts with these thoughts laid out for discussion.. First lets see how the rest of this week plays out and also see if these CB's drop any hints for more stimulus, especially the Bernank.
Hey, hey, hey. How about this? I've got another badge of honor! Mish has banned me!!!!! :-)
ReplyDeleteAfter only posting 2 times in my life, Mike Shedlock has banned me from his blog.
Here are those two posts:
______________________________________________________
1st:
Hi Mike,
A hypothetical for you (that might not be all that hypothetical sooner than we might think).
If you were to look at Spain in isolation, with it's new Balanced Budget Constitutional Amendment and the sweeping macroeconomic and fiscal reforms being implemented, and keeping in mind that the "real" banks (not the new banks formed by the insolvent cajas) are in relatively sound shape ("relative" to other banks of their size and relative to the global economic situation), that the "social base" is comprised of more than 80% homeowners (17% renters, the lowest in Europe) of which ~60% have NO mortgage and can withstand headwinds, a universal health care systems *already* in place that many consider to be one of the best in Europe (if not the best), a central government that is clamping down on the autonomous regions (I don't think there will be hispabonos since that would only encourage them to continue with their squandering), a central government that has *already* put the breaks on municipals (and has paid their outstanding invoices using a 10 year loan scheme with no possibility of deficit spending from here on out - small businesses getting paid as a result), etc., etc., how would you rate Spain's prospects within the current global setting IF SPAIN WERE NOT PART OF THE EU (the most important independent variable in this analysis would be that there would be NO devaluation - Spain as it is, but independent and outside the EU.)
BTW, La Vangauardia is a leftist, Catalan rag, supportive of that region's spendthrift policies, graft and corruption. The first news I had of the hispabonos already being approved was here, but that's probably because I don't read the Vanguardia (I've lived in Spain off and on since 1991, and continuously since 2000).
Many thanks, and best regards.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com.es/2012/06/hyperbolic-selloff-coming-imf-discusses.html?x#echocomments
2nd
"Madrid needs assistance, no strings attached".
I think they're referring to the slight of hand coming from various sectors that not only ignores everything Spain is doing positively (more than any other European nation by the way), but that is actively suggesting that nothing is being done.
And whose bond prices are benefiting from such scare tactics?
Now tell me where we see Orwellian doublespeak!
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com.es/2012/06/edge-of-precipice-doublethink.html?x#echocomments
______________________________________________________
Wow! If you don't have anything rational to respond with, JUST BAN the poster!
USDJPY
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/51CzI7IHs
Both of those scenarios are plausible. Yet I think a big rally is due. I'm leaning more and more toward bumping up the degree of the wave I've assumed we're in -- that it's Intermediate 1, not just Minor 1 of Intermediate 1 -- and a big Intermediate 2 retrace is coming. It would fit all the conventional wisdom and expectation -- election year rally and all that, and timely QE is expected by a lot of people as a political move to goose the markets into the last quarter.
ReplyDeleteThe thing is, if banks use it to unload as GregInBaltimore suggests (which makes sense that they really want to exit and get the profit off the free money while they can), and confidence is pulled down more by sinking social mood as reflected on non-US indexes, QE fails and the rally ends and Intermediate 3 of P3 starts -- the big drop.
The English press is in blackout status again . . .
ReplyDeleteSpanish Public Television (the Spanish equivalent of the BBC or PBS) is reporting what many others have been reporting now for hours (but that can be found nowhere in the English press) that Angela Merkel is willing to discuss the creation of EuroBonds. She will meet with the European Commission President today to discuss the idea. http://www.rtve.es/noticias/20120604/merkel-dispuesta-hablar-eurobonos-si-europa-controla-presupuestos-nacionales/533220.shtml
Just a word of caution to my fellow ursa majors out there... there are 3
ReplyDeletemain things that are really making a statement here right off the top
IMHO (I throw in the "IMHO" so none of you will sue me). And there are
about a half dozen others that have my caution flag up. But here are
the 3 standouts at the moment:
The currencies are suggesting a short term bounce should be happening
right about now, at least on the shortest of time frames (.
Specifically, the Aussie:Yen cross which is a measure of the appetite
for risk via the always-popular-with-orcs currency carry trade circus is
rising even as the equities markets have fallen over the past 45 min.
from green to red. I'm going to interpret this divergence as meaning
that the current drop in equities is possibly (probably?) a final little
attempt to grab up some more bears before a correction higher.
Secondly, the 20 year T-bond Fund (TLT) should be rising if we're bearish on equities. It's falling.
And conversely, TNX (rates on the 10 year) should be falling if we're bearish on equities. It's rising.
Turdly, the European markets are still open and it appears they're going
to be rather insistent on a bounce off their overnight lows... even the
DAX which got slammed to the downside. It's shaping up to bounce off
that low pretty good going into their close about an hour from now.
I don't expect much of a bounce but then... we don't know for sure, do
we. But the weekly charts are definitely adding support to the notion
that the high is in and that from here forward "bear rules apply",
meaning we should basically be looking for shorting opportunities, not
opportunities to go long (at least on a daily chart). That's not to say
that those who are a bit more aggressive and nimble might try to catch a
bounce that seems to be in the cards here. And I mean "a nibble at the
very most".
Thanks HighRev. The title of that article reads "Alemania apoyará los eurobonos a cambio de que los países cedan soberanía a Bruselas" - which translates to "Germany will support Eurobonds in exchange for countries to cede sovereignty to Brussels". Are they kidding? That's an incredible headline. Could you imagine when the day arrives that it's the US's turn and the global banking cabal (the FED and it's minion ECB jointly) says "Well we've got most of the other countries in the world in the bag, it's your turn USA. Either give up your sovereignty to we, the banking lords, who are headquartered in governmentless Brussels or we're going to let you go ever the edge into the abyss." How many Americans are going to be willing to give up their sovereignty? Even if the economy is so bad, so painful that it's almost unimaginable, how many will be willing to surrender to the New World Order, forever enslaved in debt? How many in Greece are willing to do that today. I have no idea but my guess is about 0.005%.
ReplyDeleteAsia stocks tumble, Tokyo hits 28-year low amid global rout
ReplyDeletehttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/global-markets/asia-stocks-tumble-tokyo-hits-28-year-low-amid-global-rout/articleshow/13798711.cms
We certainly have an island reversal, abandoned baby, setup in place on the Topix (as well as on the Hang Seng).
Yeah, it's hard for us to imagine, but if we go back to Colonial times . . .
ReplyDeleteNecessity is the mother of invention. ;-)
(But they're *only* talking about budgetary sovereignty - Brussels would have the final word fiscally.)
If anyone is wondering why the IBEX was up almost 3% today, and why it was down the least on Friday, other than the technically severely oversold conditions, the fundamentals as seen in single digit PE ratios and high yields make for attractive long term investment opportunities (as well as perhaps being yet another signal of an important low).
ReplyDeletePE ratios and yields on the big guns on the IBEX-35.(source http://www.eleconomista.es )
Gas Natural (utility) 6.58, 10.08%
Endesa (utility) 6.58, 5.32%
Iberdrola (utility) 6.73, 10.55%
Telefonica (telcom) 6.83, 14.44%
Santander (bank) 6.96, 13.89%
Repsol (oil) 7.19, 8.06%
BBVA (bank) 7.76, 9.02%
And, according to Market Watch's Big Charts, the numbers are even more enticing on these.
STD
REP
BBVA
The PE ratio for the entire IBEX-35 "basket" is 8.64 and the yield is 8.57%. (source http://www.invertia.com )
God save our gracious Queen
ReplyDeleteLong live our noble Queen
God save the Queen
Send her victorious
Happy and glorious
Long to reign over us
God save the Queen
So the Spain stock market has now achieved the desirable proximity for a bear market low valuation where the PE ratio and dividend yield are about equal.. we would have had the same low valuation in the Dow by now had Ben not ballooned the Fed's balance sheet. For those wanting to buy Spain in dollars, the Ishares etf EWP @$22 with a yield of 6.18% could very well be a basement bargain investment. http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/EWP.htm
ReplyDeleteAfter how many pints was that? ;-)
ReplyDeleteHaven't quite reached a conclusion yet on a "new high", but the bounce should be substantial. Time for some deep thinking.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hulu.com/watch/285197/saturday-night-live-deep-thoughts-clowns
just wanted to see if AR would ban me :-)
ReplyDelete:-)
ReplyDeleteInteresting ... reminds me of March 2009 when the MLP's were yielding 15% dividends.
ReplyDeleteBut I think this is also a sign that global money flows are worried about currency exchange risk.
If the Euro falls through the floor, those dividends will get even higher.
Thanks for that thought-provoking degree comment.
ReplyDeleteCool biz's NYMO chart with positive divergences on Daneric's seems to suggest a bounce soon also. And we've nearly got a tidy 5-waver down.
kind of with ya on that one.....feels like lot more bears in the room right now...and we have five down... I am not long--just aware that bear markets rally...
ReplyDeletePrithee fair English man, what dark thoughts crosseth thine mind that such fears beset thee? Methinks thou be neither ne'er do well nor troll, but far onuppan such pudh and vile creatures. Ye grace hallowed halls with thine mere presence, standing tallt at the midst of adoring throngs. Dost thou naught noweth thine own greatness whence comest great vision and understanding?
ReplyDeleteI beseech thee wise and gentle man of England, fear not for thou hast not wrought pain nor suffering upon the peasants which dwell betwixt high walls of this sacred chamber. Thine presence be gift to all. It matter not whither thou goest, thou shalt be followed by those whom seek thine divine wisdom and favour, this day and next, as in days of yore. Peasants kneel humbly before thine shadow kind English man, full thankful at the basking in the glory of thy presence. Fear not, for surely thou couldst not arouse ire of the gatekeeper within these castle walls. The drawbridge remain forever lowered at promise of your return.
Thanks for whatever that was Pebble but I can't see it because apparently I'm geographically challenged. That happens so often... a lot of video content that is available to US viewers is not permitted viewing in Canada... at least not at the link provided by an American. We can see it but we have to go to the trouble of searching all over hell's half acre for it. I don't even know what hulu is. But FYI, it's streaming video library is only available within the sacred walls of the USA. But thanks for submitting that. Sadly, I'm the only one here who can't watch it, lol.
ReplyDelete(Doing some catching up.)
ReplyDeleteNeat article from Denninger Re: "Spammers create as many as 40 percent of the accounts on social-media sites,
according to Risher."
OT / blog owner related - http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=206621
What the heck!? I had no idea they excluded Canada like that. Some kind of Southpark stunt? Anyway, it's Jack Handey did a series of 30-second spots on SNL over the years, some of which were hilarious, called "Deep Thoughts." Maybe you can access here:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.metacafe.com/watch/hl-40043225/saturday_night_live_deep_thoughts_clowns_season_16/
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xlgjym_saturday-night-live-deep-thoughts-clowns_fun
http://www.zimbio.com/Deep+Thoughts+Quotes/notes/1/Deep+Thoughts+by+Jack+Handy
Enjoy!
Thanks again Pebble. But unfortunately the first two links (video) are also unavailable to we the unwashed masses of the far north. I can access the third link though. I'm not sure what the reason is, but if I go to SNL to see what videos they have there, I can access the full webpage just like anybody else, but the videos will not play north of the border. How sick is that? I think it has something to do with copyright laws or some such garbage. But we can watch Deep Thoughts by Jack Handy on YouTube, such as this one:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSrXpFb7jFo
http://www.google.com/#hl=en&gs_nf=1&cp=20&gs_id=1n&xhr=t&q=multiple+time+frame+trading&pf=p&output=search&sclient=psy-ab&oq=multiple+time+frame+&aq=0&aqi=g4&aql=&gs_l=&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.,cf.osb&fp=e19e6948e17cc609&biw=1024&bih=571
ReplyDeleteSPX: at solid confluence of support, pattern target areas, etc.
Weekly momentum: oversold
Daily momentum: trying to turn higher out of oversold with some possible bullish divergences building
Hourly momentum: strongly higher with the slow stochs possibly going to embed and on a "buy" since 2:00 PM yesterday
15 minute momentum: turned back up into the close
I had gone long the Russell yesterday at 10:15 with a pretty good entry. But the action today, although it was basically just a melt-up, was absolutely excruciating for me... holding a long. So at the end of the day I bailed out and am standing aside. This market just makes me want to puke to be honest. It's gotten to the point where I just don't want to hold 'anything, long or short' overnight these days. The reasons for downside are just so incredibly overwhelming that I literally can't stomach to hold longs overnight. Does that help any? lol
ReplyDeleteUSDJPY - bottomed?
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/8l18FR4fwyc1
I wish I could even reply to your chart DK but believe it or not we can't even put together a chart of the USD:Yen on StockCharts that are smaller than a daily. So I couldn't even put some indicators on an intra-day chart of that pair. We can't get the USD in any chart smaller than a daily but we can get the Yen down to the minute. How wacky is that?
ReplyDeleteWell that's where FreeStockCharts trumps StockCharts. Want Forex intra-day charting? FreeStockCharts got it!
ReplyDeletedon't worry, those wiggly indicators just make my eyes goggly.
ReplyDeletelong time no speak...getting thirsty...mine's a large one, fnarr fnarr
EURAUD
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/Q765F0IUSSB
EURUSD testing underside of daily H&S neckline for 2nd time....
ReplyDeleteI can't get myself to play these wave 2 bounces ... I'm a gonna wait for wave 3 to commence. Just my risk tolerance ... just conserve my energy.
ReplyDeleteAR - dis is for you, and anyone who thinks the bottom is here
ReplyDeleteAUDJPY
http://screencast.com/t/ZmCKcm6GR
Hey bud. Nice to see ya. Man... I'm having an epiphany tonight and am working on a new article about it. All of a sudden it's becoming much more clear to me. I should indeed have hung onto those longs and wish to hell I had. But bailing out was safer than exposing myself to a complete meltdown tomorrow morning. A meltdown that I can now see was nothing to fear. Hopefully I'll have this piece finished before the market opens. But even I, the most bearish guy I know, can fully buy into the bullish case for now (from the technical standpoint). We even know the "almost assured" minimum target. It might also be the maximum, but it's oh so obvious now. It's definitely playable from the long side. Hang in there and I promise to try to have a good piece here in the morning.
ReplyDeleteStop the Press! meltdown a-coming
ReplyDeleteI also use (not as complete perhaps, but real time):
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forexpros.com/charts/real-time-forex-charts
http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/chart-station/
Denninger recently recommending the same caution. http://www.forexpros.com/charts/real-time-forex-charts
ReplyDeleteSpain and Italy are doing all the right
ReplyDeletethings and there is no reason why they should be paying such high interest
rates, the head of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
said on Tuesday. http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-oecd-gurria-spainbre8540dv-20120605,0,3167551.story
LOL... no doubt in reference to the idea that AR would get bullish near a top? Not sure if that's what you mean, but I can sure justify a bounce here, lol. That article is out now.
ReplyDeleteMine's larger, lol.
ReplyDeleteThanks DK. Great chart and there's no doubt it's pretty damned compelling. If your labeling is right then the bottom is not in. But that currency pair is still rising at this very moment, right along with an explosion higher in equities. So we have to consider that maybe your chart is showing a 3 wave sequence off the high... a move down that's finished for now. Because the evidence is quickly becoming overwhelming that a hefty bounce in equities is underway. At least 3 weeks worth most likely.
ReplyDeleteHa! no , it wasn't a reference to your legendary top-picking skills!
ReplyDeleteeverything I have on FX (well, AUDUSD, EURUSD...AUDJPY says this bounce is 4....big 5 still to come....so just watch it with those longs amigo.
see you tonite- I'll shout you a pink gin if ES 1305 gets busted.
DK
Very nice chart ... that's pretty good odds wave v is coming!
ReplyDeleteLol ! Very impressive,unortunately too tired to muster up the muse in reply !
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