I don't mean right as in predicting the direction of the market over the next two months and beyond, because one of them is going to be wrong. I mean right as in drawing the correct conclusions based on what his particular field of study is telling him. We seldom see such a wide conflict in signals as what we're seeing today. When was the last time had to deal with such confusing messages? You're going to find out below. But this is a conflict that won't last long. The markets are going to resolve one way or the other and very shortly thereafter both schools of TA will quickly come back into sync with each other and line up perfectly in total agreement.
First of all, I don't really think there are all that many old timers from the old school of technical analysis who are not fairly well versed in EWT. But for the sake of discussion, we're going to pretend. What I'm going to present here is a look at both areas of practice and illustrate why the weekly charts are in such conflict at the present moment, that it would appear we are at an inflection point of epic proportions. It's decision time.
We start off with a look at a weekly chart of one market which has produced such a beautiful wave count that it's far superior to any of the American indices for this purpose... the $DAX. Keep in mind that I have never professed to be particularly good at EW counting. But for this exercise that doesn't really matter because what we're going to examine is a generality... simply to illustrate the current conflict between both schools of study. In the first chart below, we take a look at the weekly $DAX and apply a wave count that seems so clean that it's almost too good to be true. If only all waves were this textbook. Admitting that this count could be wrong, I simply ask you to just assume for a moment that it is correct and that the $DAX is currently in a cyclical correction higher within a secular bear market. Use your imagination if necessary... we're going somewhere with this:
 |
| BEARISH - Left click on either chart to bring up the Lightbox. From there you can toggle back and forth between the two. Click here for a live, updated and much larger version of the chart above. |
At this point, I need to interject that for those who believe that a global deflationary collapse is the only logical outcome after decades of the largest degrees of credit creation in history, and that it has already begun, the labeling on this chart is the only choice. Or I should say that regardless of whether or not my own labeling is perfect, the general bearish conclusion is the only choice. There is no other option if the deflationary genie is in fact already out of the bottle. A bottle which has been kept safely under lock and key for the past 80 years or so, carefully guarded by KHRYSOS as he, among all other gods, fears this king of
all badass genies above all others. He stands ever on guard, mallet in hand, ready to slam the cork back into the the old bunghole yet again as the monster genie within awakens. Unknown to mortal man, this epic battle takes place in a hidden cave far from prying eyes, deep beneath the mountains on the island of Makronisi, GREECE.
Here's the problem... the genie prefers the chart above. KHRYSOS prefers the chart below. The chart above strongly suggests that the genie is about to explode out of his containment vessel, grab that mallet and give old KHRYSOS a taste of his own medicine. The chart below says otherwise.
 |
| BULLISH - Left click on either chart to bring up the Lightbox. From there you can toggle back and forth between the two. Click here for a live, updated and much larger version of the chart above. |
Every fibre of my being says the chart above is labeled incorrectly. It's flat out goofy looking to begin with. And unless past history of monetary expansion can no longer be used as a guide, unless there exists some form of orc-style banking black magic that the world has never yet seen, the implications of the chart above are dead wrong. But the technical indicators say it is right. What? Yes... the momentum indicators on the weekly chart make no bones about it, the above bullish count is far more likely to be correct than a bearish outcome. Or perhaps more accurately, regardless of whether or not my own labels are perfect, the bullish implications are correct... KHRYSOS wins yet again. The genie remains in the bottle for the foreseeable future. Inflation it shall be, at least for the stock markets. And to make matters worse, BullTart's 10/80 weekly cross just went bullish, big time.
THE ONLY OTHER OPTION, one which resolves this conflict perfectly, is that the markets are currently in (or extremely near) POSITION 'A' as seen on the chart above. Back in the week of May 19th, 2008, after a stunning sustained rally that generated a gain of 17.25% in 8 short weeks, the $DAX immediately reversed lower and the route was on. The collapse that followed was fast. It was sharp. It had Lehman written all over it. And in spite of the fact that the weekly charts were exhibiting nothing but bullish signals immediately prior to the reversal, signals almost identical to those being exhibited today, no warning was given. The momentum indicators reversed just as sharply as the $DAX itself did, without ever producing any negative divergences as they usually do... divergences that appear as long as we're in a bull market. BUT, if we're currently in a bear market, there will be no such warnings in the form of negative divergences. It's agony dealing with neg. divergences in a bull market if you're trying to pick a top, whether one is short or long. Not so in a bear market because there won't be any neg. divergences. The reverse would occur... there would be pos. divergences at the bottoms. Bear market rules would apply.
CONCLUSION: It is my belief that Elliott Wave Theory is going to win this one. Many of you who know me are aware that I have occasionally said that when there is a conflict between EWT and the other basic methods of measuring a market, I will usually defer the the old school methods. This is one instance where I can see numerous reasons why the old school methods will likely have to take a back seat. I believe that although on the weekly charts above the momentum indicators and oscillators will be late (as they always are), they will produce no negative divergences whatsoever. No warning. The deflationary arguments are just too strong to deny that the bearish EW count probably have this one in the bag, as frustrating as it has been for EW practitioners as of late. On the other hand, if the orcs do indeed pull this off, we're likely headed for another bull market the likes of which the world has never seen before. If there is any saving grace for all of us it is this: the current conflict between both schools of study is going to be resolved one way or the other very soon. My best guess? Within 4 weeks if not almost immediately.
AR, very interesting stuff here. So you are of the opinion that the market is essentially going to selloff without giving any advance of warning signals?
ReplyDeleteHi Rob. What I'm really trying to convey here is that if the world is going to have to endure the whopping deflationary cycle that I personally think is inevitable, and if the bearish EW count (top chart) is correct, then I would fully expect the momentum indicators to roll over without creating any negative divergences that we've become all too used to expecting. Those neg. divergences that never seem to amount to a hill of beans only happen in bull markets. I think we're most likely in a new bear market now, where bear market rules apply. If that's the case, we can expect the opposite to become the norm. Pos. divergences will develop at a bottom but they are to be ignored. In other words, I think we are in a bear market now, and if true, then the next time the momentum indicators roll lower, that would be a flat out sell signal. As you can see in the lower chart, that is what happened at POSITION A, back in May of 2008.
ReplyDeleteBut the jury is still out of course, whether or not we are indeed going to have to go through the deflationary phase. Past history says we have no choice, the great unwind must happen. And the EWT counts done by practitioners who are far better at it than I am, suggest the time is drawing very near. But who knows for sure whether or not the banking cabal can pull off some sort of miracle and defer the whole darned business for another decade? Personally I don't think that's possible. But as I kind of laid out in the short article called But What If?", both options are still up for grabs as of this evening. But the "what if" article also shows approximagely what both cases would look like. I'd say we're going to find out very soon... perhaps getting some indications as early as this week. Maybe it'll take two or three weeks before we have a definitive answer. Don't know. But it's in progress.
Thanks for taking the time to read it Rob. It's sure something to think about, isn't it.
I've enjoyed your previous articles, especially that one with the Dax going parabolic. That was a new way to shed light on how "overvalued" risk markets really are. I agree with you on the points you make. I was of the belief earlier that the Oct 27 highs was Position A, but then LTRO came and the FX swap lines almost as if to throw the whole 2008 analog chart off line. I suspect with investor sentiment at such bullish extremes along with numerous other techincal indicators we are going to roll over much sooner than the 3-4 weeks you suggest. There is simply no short interest in this market to stop the selloff once it gets started. Almost all bears have capitulated or gone long - all the makings are ripe for a selloff.
ReplyDeleteI don' think the deflationary phase can be avoided, it can only be postponed, but the longer it's delayed, the worse the outcome will be when it finally arrives.
Might it be reasonable to say that among the three inputs of TA, FA, & EW you're going with the 2/3 that agree?
ReplyDeleteYou are on the right track, but I would prefer this wave count ... Your four are too long in time relative to the other waves.
ReplyDeleteMaybe an overly-simplified EW sort of way to conceptualize your "it's decision time:"
ReplyDeleteWave twos try to convince you the previous trend is back. They are often so convincing that their death throes are the capitulation of the critical mass who had been believers in the trend change brought about by wave one.
Third waves are the powerful beasts of impulses, who's heart is known as the "point of recognition." As convincing as they are, second waves are still not convincing enough to fulfill this role. Hence, they peter out before they can evolve into a full-fledged five. You might say, in this sense, they monkey around.
So here we are. Beast or buffoon?
If the former, I'm in the camp that's bound to look like the latter...
Should be a 2 or B instead of 2 or C in the last picture.
ReplyDeleteWell it's difficult to know what fundamental analysis you're referring to Zimmer. If you're thinking about FA as it might be interpreted based on statistics that come out of the government, or based on P/E ratios or that king of thing, then no... I pay no attention to that. Can't trust any of it. But if you're referring to the "fundamental argument" that the world is saturated with credit and that, if history repeats and the credit contraction starts to pick up steam (currencies disappearing right back into the imaginary void that they were birthed from in the first place), then yes, that's the "fundamental" part I believe in. It happens to coincide with the bearish wave counts out there. So yes, I guess you could say that. Two out of the three seem to suggest pretty strongly that the bearish scenario should be the one that evolves. And of course the old school TA would quickly fall into line if that's what actually happens. That would make it 3 outta 3, lol.
ReplyDeleteFair enough Lynx. We'll go with your wave count for the bearish scenario.
ReplyDeleteThanks again Rob. I'm glad you can see some merit in them. For sure, that chart showing how the DAX is literally threatening to go parabolic relative to the DJ Europe Financials Index is something to behold is it not? I mean it can't go parabolic forever because that would mean the European banks are headed toward zero. If the Euro banks were to get close enough to zero, eventually the entire DAX would have to collapse as well. Who knows what that chart would look like in such a theoretical scenario. What I was trying to point out was that something's gotta give. Either the European banks start to recover soon or the DAX is going to start to collapse. More than likely a combination of the two. IOW, the DAX is way overpriced relative to the Euro banking sector. In fact, it did retrace a little bit this week, and the ratio did fall back down toward the steepest of the trendlines. Here's what the <a href="><b>weekly chart </b></a>looks like tonight.
ReplyDeleteYou know, if the DAX hadn't bounced off the November low and surged right back up to test the Oct. 27th high, then you'd have been right. That most likely would have been Position A. I still think Position A is in the cards but that it's been shifted over to the right by 3 months. I guess that's what more "kicking the can" can accomplish... delay but not avoid.
I agree wholeheartedly, I don't think the deflationary phase can be avoided either. It's the postpone part that's aggravating as hell. As you say, they're just making the entire disaster so much worse with each passing month. But damn, they're good at it, aren't they?
What I'm visualizing when I say "it's decision time is" is that the pattern that develops on this chart over the next 6 weeks or so (possibly less) will be 'make or break', IMHO. That is the chart that I used in the "But What If?" piece, but it was made invisible for the article. I just turned the lights back on it just now, just so I could show you why I think 1267.06 is now so important. And that's why the annotations are a bit out of line. It's late and I'm too lazy now to fix 'em up. Besides, if I leave the chart alone, it will remain consistent for whenever anybody who reads that article clicks on that chart. Hopefully you can see what I'm getting at though bud. 1267.06... I think that number is crucial now.
ReplyDeleteHaha... no worries. I still got the message.
ReplyDeleteOne investing firm turned bullish today.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.rickackerman.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Auerbach-Grayson-On-this-team-we-fight-for-that-inch.pdf
Always find it amusing how previously-bearish analysts suddenly flip a 180 after a 2,200pt three-month rally. Talk about selling low, buying high. Sentiment must be totally off-the-scale at the moment.
Hi AR, curious on how "my" TrendXplorer momentum indicator on weekly settings would turn out tracking the DAX, I had to use the ProRealTime platform (unfortunately TOS doesn't support the DAX (yet?)). Reason why the chart looks a bit less colorful.
ReplyDeleteWell, the outcome is interesting, to say the least.
- TrendXplorer signaled negative divergence at the May 2011 top, just like it did at the 2007 topping process;
- TrendXplorer momentum value of 2011 equals almost the momentum value of 2007 (see long dashed line on lower pane).
So there seems to be no "conflict" between EWT and TA when one uses the "right" indicator (lol!).
Lets see what will happen...
Thanks for the link Tom. That's a pretty darned good in-depth report. If the argument for the deflationary case wasn't so strong, I probably would have flipped long term bullish when the 6 day MA turned higher 4 days after the low in October. Perhaps I should have.
ReplyDeleteIn the past few days I've written a few pieces here that show why I'm starting to almost become convinced myself that maybe we are embarking on a bull market for the ages. One should never fear speaking such blasphemous words just because he believes (perhaps wrongly) that there is no option other than the deflationary outcome. Maybe that's true, but it doesn't get started for another decade? What happens between now and then? I remember all too well how the market was performing exactly as it is right now back in the summer of '09, running higher from July all the way until the following April. And then again from Sept. 2010 all the way until April of last year. Remember how incredibly relentless it was... just a continuous melt-up, day after day after day on ever-diminishing volume. This market stinks exactly the same right now. Maybe going long in a market that just stinks to high heaven is how some people get stinkin' rich.
So as much as I hate to admit that maybe I'm a buffoon for believing that history of past economic crashes is worth remembering, I've also recently tried to consider the bullish case. For one thing, I've been updating BullTart's 10/80 crossover and with the action last week, that thing just went full blown bullish. The 10 week MA isn't going to be headed south now for quite a long while. You can always find the link to that study over on the right hand column, but if you'd care to take a look at it, this will save you about a quarter of a second, lol.
Also, I put together a short piece asking the question But What If? In that one, the upper chart is the one that I'm starting to think shows the correct path... bullish as hell. That chart would tie in perfectly with the lower chart in this article which entertains the unthinkable, that the bankers are going to win and drive the world into an inflationary spiral that will literally kill people in their millions through starvation. If they have the power to do that, then we're talking about $4000 gold probably within two years and the S&P at... screw it, let's give that bitch 4000 as well. Might as well. Because if the bastards are prepared to cure all that ails us by successfully unleashing inflation yet again, then we're also talking about $250 oil, which would crush every economy in the world. But that doesn't matter to Goldman, as long as the S&P doesn't fall, lol.
At this stage of the game, in all honesty I think the jury is still out. The most important level right now (at least for me) is 1267.06.
You mean to tell me that ever since MACD was invented over 30 years ago by Gerald Appel, all of us have been using the wrong momentum indicators? Damn, no wonder trying to pin down the markets has been so difficult, lol
ReplyDeleteFair enough, AR, you have to have contingencies. Personally I can't conceive of genuine inflation in an environment of unprecedented private debt-saturation and blanket bank insolvency. Things can only be hidden for so long and when it starts to properly implode, the liquidity won't be able to mask the insolvency this time. There's not much can-kicking left in the Eurozone - it's Portugal that will be next on the agenda over this side of the Atlantic. When it goes it'll snap quickly and this melt-up will be smashed to bits in a couple of days. Dangerous times.
ReplyDeleteYeah that's all I'm doing Tom. The strength of the current rally is affecting me just as it's affecting everybody else. We're starting to question the entire notion of the deflationary scenario Everything you said above is bang on. I agree 100% on all points, including "Personally I can't conceive of genuine inflation in an environment of unprecedented....". BANG ON!
ReplyDeleteThanks for sharing this!
ReplyDeleteNice write up AR. I agree that we should find out shortly, as in very shortly, which way things are going to resolve, but I'm not as confident as you are about the downside resolution. We shall see.
ReplyDeleteNice work on the DAX, but I would suggest that something closer to home counts even better: the NDX. But I may be limited by the blinders I think I currently find myself wearing. ;-)
I posted a brief explanation and chart on Binve's blog (that also lays out the HUGE W-X-Y possible Alt counts). http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/01/jan-16.html#comment-419041740
"Spain’s economy contracted in the fourth quarter and will shrink 1.5
ReplyDeletepercent this year, the Bank of Spain estimated, undermining government
efforts to cut the budget deficit amid the second recession in two
years... Economic output may decline this year as unemployment reaches 23.4
percent, returning to growth of 0.2 percent in 2013, the central bank
said. The forecasts are based on the premise that the government will
adopt additional austerity measures to “strictly” meet its budget goals."
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-23/spanish-gdp-to-contract-1-5-percent-in-2012-bank-of-spain-says.html
There's no chance that these budgets will be successfully implemented in Spain (or Italy or Greece) before things turn nasty when the weather warms up in a month or so. The Irish might have been willing to bend over and allow the bank-sponsored troika to shaft them but no way will the Iberians and Italians. That unemployment figure isn't a misprint - it's nearly a quarter of the working population, and nearly half of under 25s.
And we know that Spain's collapsing real estate bubble is falling on the shoulders of the cajas, the regional banks who are expert at concealing their insolvency through accounting tricks. Soon, someone will spot a cockroach and the covers will be lifted. And amidst it all, let's not forget, Spain was under a military dictatorship until 30-odd years ago. Franco's ghost still looms large - just listen to the chants at a Real Madrid home game.
Hey there HighRev. Thanks. Nice to see you drop in. I've always enjoyed your posts.
ReplyDeleteI might have sounded pretty confident about the bearish outcome in this particular piece. But I'm not confident in it at all if I totally discount the fact that I believe that money eventually has to collapse back into the imaginary void it was created in... once credit has reached a limit when the world is literally saturated with it. Are we there yet? I think so. No country can afford any more debt in my opinion, not even at near zero rates. From the technical point of view (again, discounting EWT), every other sign I can see is bullish. I've pointed that out in the "But What if"? piece as well as in this piece. And most importantly, my counts are to be ignored and I'm fully prepared to accept somebody elses. Yours would do nicely. I only put up my counts for the sake of discussion and to show that right now, the weekly charts are pointing to a bullish outcome. Something that would shock me to no end, but nonetheless still possible until the weekly indicators show at least some sign of turning. Of course they well be late, especially if the bear market has already begun. We're in agreement on one thing for sure... the market is likely to tip its hand any day now. A week or two at the latest I'd say.
Drop in any time you like bud. Don't forget there's a nice little http://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.com/2012/01/where-friends-gather-jan-12th-2012.html">pub here, a kind of a general meeting place or bulletin board kind of deal. I don't care if people show up there or not. I've simply provided an alternative for my friends. Actually, it's an alternative for anybody who's not a troll, plain and simple. Wagner already tried to infiltrate this space with his first comment... a taunt. I shot that bastard right in the face and he's gone for life. The message has been sent. So... welcome, lol. It's sure as hell a nice alternative to the other place which has become a totally annoying gong show. I love and respect the author over there, but hey... if he's happy with people shitting in his house, there's nothing I can do about that.
Thanks for the link Tom. I'd heard that the unemployment rate for young people was 40% in Spain but I don't think "young people" was defined. Nevertheless, those figures are stunning. You bring up some great points. I didn't think it 'ever' got cold in Spain, lol. And I also wasn't aware that Franco's ghost looms large. Can you clue me in about the chants at a Real Madrid game? What are the people saying?
ReplyDeleteOf all people to bend over and take it from the bankers, I'd have thought the Irish would be the last to do it. My own ancestry is Irish and I was exceedingly disappointed with the results of their vote... their second vote. They had to do it twice because the bastard bankers weren't satisfied with the results of the first one. Same deal with the vote in Ireland on the Lisbon Treaty. Such is the effect of the media orcs who are the same bastards who own the FED and all the central banks in the world. Because it was put to a vote (the only country in the entire Eurozone that at least gave it's people a vote), the people "NO!". So the dark lords simply orchestrated another vote until they got the outcome they wanted. The Irish aren't finished yet, I assure you.
There have been probably dozens of books written about the politics of football so not sure I'm qualified to give an adequate explanation, but essentially Real ("Royal") Madrid is recognised as the "establishment" team, supported by the King and the generalissimo, whereas rivals Barcelona has always been anti-establishment, opposed to the regime, and of course politically pro-Catalan and often pro-separatist and overtly anti-Spain (seemingly less so these days). Real's "hardcore" support, the Ultras-Sur are politically influential within the club and have been accused of fascist sympathies, waving far-right banners, racist chanting etc. The club is often fined pitiful amounts and the Spanish FA quickly sweep it all under the carpet. There have been numerous instances of black opposition players being subjected to monkey chants (a couple of England players were on the receiving end a few years ago: http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/internationals/4018421.stm) and even their own players on occasion. It's important to say that this is by no means confined to Real Madrid - it goes on at plenty of provincial clubs too. Sport is a reflection of wider society after all and to be fair Spain is more "enlightened" than some other southern and eastern European countries when it comes to cultural issues. Lazio, the Roman club, have ultras that are openly fascist and are not shy in publically displaying their loyalties.
ReplyDeleteAs for Ireland, I shared your surprise about the people allowing themselves to be trampled on by their own corrupt politicans. Michael Lewis wrote an article in Vanity Fair a year or so ago: http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/03/michael-lewis-ireland-201103 He suggests that perhaps the centuries of being battered down have taken their toll and there's not much fight left in them. We'll see, but as things stand the people only have themselves to blame for allowing their representatives to sell them down the river. Let's hope they rediscover their pride and dignity and take note of the Athenians. The message is out there though, thanks to the brilliant David McWilliams (featured in this documentary: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5zXU1bQ3tQ), among others. You'll also enjoy this clip of another journalist, Vincent Browne, making a banker-apologist squirm: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=HAf7J4a_T1g
Keep up the good work, AR.
ReplyDeleteWill do Mr. wbonesteel. It's Warren, right? I've seen that name somewhere.
ReplyDeleteWow! Tom! You're a goldmine of info. Your description of the politics within the Spanish football circles is entirely new to me. I find it extremely interesting. Thanks so much! There are a lot of Europeans living in my city and each one of them is still wild about European football. I never could quite understand the degree of passion they have for it. Maybe there's a lot more to it than I was aware of.
ReplyDeleteA year ago my daughter introduced me to a friend of hers who is from Nicaragua (very much a Spaniard). He told me that his family loyalty was with Barcelona, not Madrid. I have been aware (to a minor degree) of the Basques and how they too have their own preferences for the region of southern France and northern Spain. But that didn't explain the statement by my daughter's friend so I didn't understand what he was referring to. I think your description clears that up quite nicely. Very, very interesting stuff to me. Thanks.
Also, thanks for the links. The first one (BBC) didn't work but I'd like to see it... if you have time to maybe try it again :-) And Max's video... I'll definitely watch that after trading... I love hearing Kaiser speak at any time. And I only learned of Vincent Brown earlier this week. I'll watch that one too, later today. Thanks a lot. That was an unexpectedly great response from you. Very much appreciated.
Pleasure to contribute, Alberta. I'm not really a trader but I like to try and see the big picture so enjoy reading the varying views of those who are. It's going the be an interesting year. I've edited the BBC link - a pesky stray bracket was to blame.
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry Index looking pretty sickly of late: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
ReplyDeleteTanks again.
ReplyDeleteI've had a chart of the BDI in my library for a few years and to be honest, I haven't even looked at it in at least 6 months. It's more or less a "holy smokes" chart now. Quite unbelievable:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BDI&p=W&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p54418277194&a=230518928
This is nice blog
ReplyDeleteWow, this place is a nice change of pace !
ReplyDeleteSimon Johnson's analysis of Euro crisis: http://piie.com/publications/pb/pb12-4.pdf
ReplyDeleteI've yet to see even one report acknowledge the role the people themselves will play as the situation unfolds. Like conducting an experiment in space without taking gravity into account.
Glad i checked the place out. I got it booked marked so i'll B bach. Nice alternative to the Food Fight !
ReplyDeleteAt your own pace then soldier. Carry on.
ReplyDeleteWhenever you feel like it :-)
I agree and
ReplyDeletethe Harpex which isn't restricted to commodites but a wider base of goods has been in a downtrend for over a year
http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexRH.do?timePeriod=Years2&&dataType=Harpex&floatLeft=None&floatRight=None
However, I came across this the other day presenting a more optimistic scenario
He says we should wait until the Chinese get back from their vacations before we rush to judgment
Correction Underway + Gold Vix + UNG
ReplyDeletePreview of the Fed Meeting. And a preview of QE 3 ? Before i read and this article i didn't
ReplyDeletegive it any thought. Now i'm not so sure. http://moneymorning.com/2012/01/24/whats-different-about-this-weeks-fomc-meeting/
AR, thanks for analyzing the situation and presenting "THE ONLY OTHER OPTION" without which I felt totally confounded. Now, I have a bit of orientation.
ReplyDeleteThe snippet below is what has me concerned the most. It suggests Bernanke has no opposition to his plans to try to just print their (our) way out of this mess. It doesn't neccessarily mean QE3 is a slam dunk but the way is clear for him to do if he wants to:
ReplyDelete"Four new Fed presidents are part of the FOMC this year, following the
annual rotation. The new members include Jeffrey Lacker, president of
the Richmond regional Fed bank; John Williams of the San Francisco Fed;
Sandra Pianalto of the Cleveland Fed; and Dennis Lockhart of the
Atlanta Fed.
Gone are the three presidents who twice dissented last year on the Fed
proposal to lower long-term interest rates. They feared the move would
trigger more inflation.
The only hawkish president among the new members is Lacker, meaning
Bernanke will likely face little opposition this year as he continues
his loose monetary policy."
Tom, please help me out a bit here. Once you had submitted the above comment, did you have any problems commenting after that by chance? Any kind of troubles at all? The reason I ask is that I found your above comment in the "spam" bin and I did not put it there. Disqus does have its own spam filters which the owners of blogs have no access to. I'm starting to think that that's the cause of certain people (like myself) having so much trouble on the other site with their comments vanishing. If that's the case, it's just a matter of the blog owner checking the spam box regularly to make sure nobody's comment got put in there by mistake. So far I have only spammed one comment and by now you know who that was from.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, I do recognize the link you provided and I do remember thanking you for it. Was that on this page or another one?
Geez... I hope that write-up wasn't confusing. What I was pointing out with the "ONLY OTHER OPTION" paragraph was to provide a reason why the technical indicators are still so strong when at the same time the EW bearish counts seem to make the most sense. The deflationary arguments certainly seem logical, according to pundits like Prechter, Shedlock, Kyle Bass, Joe Granville, Harry Dent,etc. So I'm asking the question "how is it possible that the bearish arguments make so much sense, supported by EW bearish counts, and yet the technicals look so strong? Those questions would be answered if we are indeed at POSITION A. If we are, then a sudden and nasty downturn should follow at any time now and that in turn would cause the momentum indicators to reverse sharply, perhaps a week later. Other than that, I don't have any explanation other than that we're about to enter into (or are already in) a full blown bull market.
ReplyDeleteDon't think I submitted anything after that, Alberta. Pretty sure it was on this page and seem to recall it went straight up on the blog.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't say it affects relations between the two countries - to be honest football fans in all countries are generally recognised as idiots - there's more a focus on how their respective football associations and the governing body of European football, Uefa, deal with the problem.
ReplyDeleteNot sure if you're aware of the recent case involving Liverpool's Uruguayan forward, Luis Suarez, who was banned for eight matches for directing racist taunts at an opposing player during a game. It was pretty much front page news as well as back page, and fanned the flames of enmity between Liverpool and Man Utd. The incident even has its own Wikipedia section: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luis_Su%C3%A1rez_%28Uruguayan_footballer%29#2011_racial_abuse_incident
LOL - "football fans in all countries are generally recognized as idiots"
ReplyDeleteNo, I wasn't aware until you gave me that link yesterday. That's the one that wouldn't open until you repaired it. I don't follow European soccer at all until the World Cup on on. My daughter and I really got into it maybe a decade ago when Ireland got in and did pretty well, surprising a lot of people I think. The Japanese fans and Korean fans really got behind that team for some reason.
I've done a little activism here and there. Google 'Warren "Bones" Bonesteel' for additional insight.
ReplyDeleteI've backed off a bit over the ladt year or two, though.
Holy shit man, I didn't realize we were cut from the same cloth basically. I still don't remember how I knew your first name though. But you're definitely my kind of person. Great job! I'll bet you don't get pushed very far before you push back. Glad you drop in from time to time and just know that you're welcome here. Don't wander too far away, ok.
ReplyDeleteYeah, sometimes I open my mouth before I put my brain in gear, but normally, I've done a bit of research, first.
ReplyDeleteIf it's a matter of principle, I almost always 'push back.'
I'll be stopping in daily to read what ya gotta say, AR.
Yeah, sometimes I open my mouth before I put my brain in gear, but normally, I've done a bit of research, first.
ReplyDeleteIf it's a matter of principle, I almost always 'push back.'
I'll be stopping in daily to read what ya gotta say, AR.
Unfortunately I don't write something new every day WB. So I imagine when people come here they find the place pretty boring relative to some of the other swingin' night clubs. But that's life I guess... I don't do a nightly EW analysis or a nightly market call kind of thing. It's those kind of sites that get all the traffic. At this site it might be just me and you, lol. That's partly why I established the pub, as a general spot where you might find at least somebody. Otherwise, we're spread all over the place on this site, commenting at various articles but never together.
ReplyDeleteScary stuff: "Young people were hit especially hard, with more than half of 16-24 year
ReplyDeleteolds -- 51.4 percent -- out of work on December 31 compared with 45.8
percent on September 30."
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5ghZaZlf2Qsp8CsNLGB50q6JgjFhw?docId=CNG.35f7104c117115a658c3951d5329b193.31