Saturday, January 14, 2012

Ok, So Here's The Plan

All those who know me from various blogs are aware that I'm the first to admit that I'm not a very good Elliott Wave practitioner.  Thankfully I've got a pretty darned good background in pretty much all other forms of technical analysis by now, considering that I started studying it at age 11.  But it's been a long time since I read any of Prechter's books and to tell you the truth I don't even know where they are right now.  Probably in a box somewhere in a friend's garage or something.  I've literally got a library full of great TA books and thankfully most of what I read there got stuck in the old noggin.  That's a good thing because I don't know where those books are either.

But in any case, EWT all sounded simple enough at first.  But when I tried to put it into practice I soon discovered that very seldom was I getting the results I was expecting.  I don't particularly like surprises like the kind I was being confronted with.  I don't like disappointment... I want results that I can rely on a little better than that.  For example, when I stick my tongue in a light socket, I know what's going to happen.  The light bulb that I screwed into my arse is going to light up!  Those are the results I want... something dependable.  So it didn't take me long to realize that although some people have a great ability to come up with some remarkable visions, I personally just had to swallow my pride and admit that I'm just not a good wave counter.  I don't have the proper aptitude for it.  I don't have the patience for it.  I don't have the vision required to come up with alternate counts.  The only letters I'm familiar with in EWT are A, B and C.  When it came to Ws and Xs and Zs, my eyes kind of glazed over and I discovered that WTF was more appropriate most of the time.  Nope,. I'm just not a very good waver.  As some of you already know, the last time I did any seriously good waving was when the bus carrying the South Okanagan Bikini Team drove through town.

But by golly, I'm feeling kinda cocky tonight.  So I've decided to really stick my neck out here and show all of you what is going to happen. Yup, this is what's going to happen... I've made up my mind.

Click here for a larger version

I know what you're thinking.  You're thinking "What in hell is that?"  That my friends, is the S&P 500, invisiblized.  What you're looking at is the 6 day simple moving average of the S&P with the S&P itself made invisible.  Nothing like clearing away the
noise in order to get a nice clean picture of the skeleton.

And just to put it all in context, let me flip the switch and turn the lights back on.  No, I'm not talking about the tongue and the light bulb trick... I only do that at parties.  Here's the exact same chart with the S&P now visible.

Click here for a larger version

For all practical purposes, I don't particularly care whether or not the actual price action overlaps yellow wave ((i)), as long as the moving average doesn't penetrate that level.  In fact, I'd fully expect one more deke out bear trap.  An overlap would do the trick nicely.  However, if the moving average does drop beneath the yellow wave ((i)), then my count is wrong, we're on our way, and I'll post another wave count sometime in 2013.  Maybe.