Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Where Friends Gather - Dec. 20th

After chatting briefly with BrightFire, I thought I'd put together one space where friends could gather to chat about anything related to markets.  I put up no charts, set no stage and suggest no topic. As it turns out, several friends have dropped in from time to time but they been spread all over the place.  But I know that they know each other.  So we'll give this a whirl for a couple of weeks and see what happens.  I'm not a fan of this particular Blogger format and it's possible many of my friends won't like it either.  But we'll see..  I also don't have the time nor the inclination to run a message board or chat room but it does no harm to offer the space.  Maybe the friends who want to stay together in a nice quiet place will gather.  It's a courtesy as much as anything else... simply a nice alternative for those who prefer a respectful environment.

We've moved our conversation to the pub next door.  Feel free to top up your mug there.
The videos have been moved to here... and
We have move on to another pub.  Please join us there


  1. I've added your link to my sidebar under Friends and Muses.

    Thanks for showing respect. :)

  2. Wow! Now that's what I call a nice first comment. First comment EVER in this chat space.

    Thanks for doing that Pretzel. It's a real honor to see my name up there along with the likes of the Examiner, Mish, GEI, Minyanville and Jesse. I'll bet you didn't know that John Lounsbury and I have been friends for a few years now? For some reason, very shortly after we crossed paths he became a rather big fan of my work and one of the strongest forces who encouraged me to put my thoughts onto paper... to become a writer. He was one of 4 people who really urged me to "get your analysis out there". I owe him for that. In fact, when I write something that I plan on launching into 'the bigger audience', it's John who gets it first. Dayum... there goes that respect thing again. You may not have even known that I write articles when the urge strikes me. Here's a quick link to three of them:

    And you're more than welcome about my showing the proper respect to you and your site. But really, isn't that the way people 'should' behave on a regular basis anyway? Sadly, I must live in a dream world because I'm sometimes shocked and greatly disappointed by the degree of disrespect shown at some places in the blogosphere. Perhaps I'm naive but at my age I don't really think that's what it is. Perhaps it's the culture I live in. Yup, I think that's it. I live in a culture where respect and good manners are the expected norm and personal attack and arrogance are not tolerated. They are dealt with swiftly. What results is a very, very nice society to live in. But I keep expecting to find that type of behavior everywhere else in the world. So I take it back, I'm naive too, lol.

    But there 'are' a few places out there in cyberland where respect is valued highly. I certainly appreciate those places and Pretzel, your site really fits the bill very nicely. I'm proud to be associated with you.

    Just so people know how this relationship evolved. About a month ago, before this blog even existed, I stumbled upon Pretzel's blog and dove right into his charts and dialogue. I liked both, very much. I don't know if anybody has told you this before Pretzel, but you're a great writer. You've got a really nice knack for putting your words into a clearly understood style with just the right mix of humor thrown in. It makes for a very easy read. That's my style exactly. Or at least that's what I strive to attain. But your chart work... man I liked the chart work so much.

    So I started to provide links to Pretzel's site for some of my friends at other sites. I wanted them so see what I'd discovered. At the time, the entire idea of this blog (my own blog) hadn't yet even been hatched yet. So when I finally capitulated and felt almost forced to create this space, Pretzel and Pebblewriter were two people I genuinely wanted to be associated with right off the bat. So I added both of them to the blogroll in the same minute. They were the "first two"... other than a link to my own blog on Seeking Alpha.

    So there you have it friends. Please visit Pretzel's site often. It's a class beanery and you'll love his style... I guarantee it.

    Wow! Now that was one great "first" comment. Thanks again Pretzel. This is a good day for all of us.

  3. Regarding respect, I was raised in the same type of place. It really is amazing the things people will do to each other on the internet... things they would never do in real life. For some, it's almost like they revert to being children on a playground; calling each other names and kicking sand in each other's faces over *nothing*. Over who gets to ride the slide next.

    I don't get it.

    Anyway, I agree with John; I think you definitely have ideas worth sharing, so I'm happy to add you to my link list. And I do have to tell you that the respect you showed at my site went a *long* way with me. I believe that, in life, being a good person is its own reward... but sometimes it earns you other rewards as well. ;)

    Best of luck with your endeavor, and drop by whenever you can. :)

  4. We're on the same wavelength that's for sure. I don't mean to come across as too much of a prude though Pretzel. I do have a wicked sense of humor and I seriously have a problem keeping it out of my writing. Sometimes it shows up and sometimes I even drop the eff bomb, depending on what I'm writing. But I don't use it in telling a person where to go.

    And I admit to being very passionate. I have an extreme hatred for tyrants and bullies. The global banking cabal are on the top of the heap. I have a deep, deep hatred for the corrupt big pharma mafia. I detest most members of congress because of the way they stomp on the Constitution. And I'm not even an American, but their decisions affect the entire world. I called Ben Bernanke "Chairman Numbnuts" in one article one time.

    So I'm pretty much a normal friendly guy who makes people laugh in real life. But respect... yes, my father was the best friend I ever had. Well actually he was tied for first with my younger brother. But sadly my bro went to heaven much too early. And now I have neither. So maybe I'm looking for someone new to respect :-)

  5. Deeply sorry to hear about your losses. If it's not too personal a question: How old was your brother when he passed?

    Also, just to clarify, in my mind, dropping an f-bomb here or there has nothing to do with what type of person you are, nor does being painfully honest with your feelings when it's appropriate (in fact, I think that's a must). I'm not a prude either.

    To me, it's about how you treat others in general. It's how you walk through life, so to speak.

  6. My brother was 49. I actually lost 6 family members in 3 years. 7 if we count my dog, and I do. My brother's case and my uncle's case (below) were the exceptions since longevity runs in our family. 90 years was attained in the majority of my ancestors cases.

    Wanna hear something absolutely haunting? My brother was named after our dad's brother. So they had the exact same name. My dad's brother also left this world at 49. And they left the same way, absolutely identical. And they left for the same reason. Identical. Yet my brother never was aware about the details of our uncle's passing. Neither was I until after my brother passed away. The absolutely incredible aspect is that both of them were extremely outgoing and popular, healthy people who were loved by so many. But I can't go any further than that. And I realize you didn't ask for details.

    Yup, we have to walk through life with self respect, stand tall, treat others well and always making sure we're carrying that switchblade, lol

  7. Not to ignore the preceding conversation by changing the subject, but to acknowledge how well said it all was by not detracting by addition...

    In the event you're not already on top of it, I thought you might like this AR:
    Hopefully the first few minutes don't infuriate you too much (assuming you haven't already reached your infuriation threshold ;P) & I figured you'd delight in the sentiment expressed at about 4:45.

    All these years of oscillation & we're finally on the cusp of a momentous market decision point? Maybe?

    link test

  8. No Zimmer, it's just fine to interject anything you might want to say any time you want. It was my intention just to provide kind of a central space for people to chat. Pretzel and I just had a late night conversation. Nobody else was here. No worries.

    Oh man, that was a great clip. And you'd better believe it, I love that sentiment expressed at the end of it. Boycott anything that has JPM involved and boycott MF Global. It reminds me of Max Kaiser's silver bomb when he advised people to go out and buy some physical and take it home. Put some pressure on those monsters at JPM. And the calls for people to pull all their money out of the major banks would work miracles if people would only get off their arses and do it.

    I like your chart too man. We're definitely at a major decision point. And of course you know which way I think it's heading.

  9. > of course you know which way I think it's heading

    I might have a faint idea ;)

  10. A-Rocks , I wondered where you went. have a new blog with some pretty cool stuff

    Heading to a top

  11. No apologies needed--I'm not competing with anyone!

    It's just a plain html tag. Dunno which escape character will work, so I'll try a couple, hopefully one of them conveys the meaning:
    '< a href="theaddress" '> blahblah '< '/ a '>
    \< a href="theaddress" \> blahblah \< \/ a \>

  12. Hi Scotty. Thanks for dropping in. Did you get a beer? I didn't know which Scotty it was because I also call Scottick Scotty sometimes. But the second I saw your charts I know who you are, lol.

    Yeah, you probably know why I had to set this thing up. I promised myself I never would but in all honesty my hand was simply forced. If I wanted to share with my friends I had to do this because my comments were getting flagged for no reason and I'm just not going to put up with that. So... here I are :-)

  13. Scotty's: Heading to a top

    Maybe this will help with how to construct the tags. Check out the third section titled "HTML links." You'll get it in no time, I'm sure.

  14. Re:
    "boycott MF Global"

    For those concerned about hyper-hypothecation
    Interactive Brokers has issued a statement
    representing that they follow safe policies and procedures.

    Link to IB statement

  15. Ok, I've bothered you enough for now and I really do appreciate your efforts here. I 'did' see where the html lessons page you gave me addressed the issue of opening in a new tab. So I will take it from here and learn as I go.

    Up in the main post area where I start off a page like this, there is a terrific html editor that does all that stuff quick and easy for me. But I can also switch it over so I can see all of it in html form. I'm sure I'll pick up some good tips in there too because I'll be able to see how Blogger did it for me.

    Thanks again bud.

  16. A-Rocks
    No I didn't get a beer, But I got rocks drowned
    In VO !! Great Canadian Whiskey !

  17. I tried to change the color of the link text
    but, to do that the [Font] tag is used.
    I get the error message:

    Your HTML cannot be accepted: Tag is not allowed: FONT

    Looks like blogspot limits HTML code use.

  18. Yup you're right about that. The attribute 'target' is not allowed either. That's what would allow a link to open in a new tab.

  19. Sorry for disappearing during our conversation the other night, I had to get my work done for my daily Minyanville article. Anyway...

    I'm deeply sorry to hear about your brother, and that whole 3 year period. That must have been extremely difficult to deal with. I can only imagine, one huge emotional blow after another... man, my heart goes out to you for having to endure that. What a painful stretch of time... not even enough time in-between to recover from the last blow.

    To share a little personal story that your story reminded me of... you mentioned the strange connection between deaths, and I have a similar story: my mother died when I was 12, from cancer (technically, it was a heart attack, but the heart attack was caused by her cancer medication). My dad's mother also died when he was 12, also from cancer. My son hasn't reached the age of 12 yet, but you can believe the worry has crossed my mind...

    Synchronicity can be cool at times... other times it can be haunting.

  20. Oh heck Pretzel, that was no issue at all. It was just nice to chat with you. A pleasant surprise.

    Geez, you didn't have it any easier. To lose your mother when you were so young is just so sad and unfair. My own mother lost both her parents to the Spanish Flu when she was one year old. She also lost two sisters before she was born. One of them was an infant who was killed by hailstones that crashed through her bedroom window and pelted her to death. The storm came so fast and was so ferocious that my mom's mom ran out of the farmhouse to help her husband save some animals. The storm intensified in seconds and both of them got trapped in the barn, not daring to run back to the house with hailstones that size coming down. Of course they were assuming the baby was safe and sound in her crib. Little did they know...

    Many years later one of my uncles told me about what happened once the storm was gone. He and his dad (my mom's dad) hitched up the horses and took the wagon to town. In the ditch he saw a dead man who was also pelted to death. My uncle was 5. He told me that he saw "pieces of flesh torn out of the man that I could have put my little fist in. There was no blood in his body." How horrible is that?

    My brother was (in my seriously honest opinion) murdered by doctor prescribed anti-depressants. He was the happiest, healthiest person one could ever wish to meet, until he became the slightest bit depressed and made the mistake of going to the doctor about it. "No problem Jay. Here, take some drugs."

    Yes... I am absolutely blaming the medication. If not for that, I am 100% certain he'd still be with us. Still making me laugh.

    I've got a very strong sense that your son is going to whiz right through his 12th and 13th and 14th years with no problem whatsoever. And on and on until he's a happy, wealthy old phart.

    I may not run into you again before Christmas so just in case, I sincerely wish you and your family the nicest and most blessed Christmas of all time. Thanks for stopping in. You'll ALWAYS be welcome here.

  21. A Rocks

    "Advance Warning"-- Gold Sell Signal

  22. Thanks for your charts Scotty. Geez, I'm not sure I like the idea of shorting gold even though I'm bearish stocks. The two 'should' go down together but I don't think that's what the
    daily gold chart is suggesting. I don't pretend to be the best wave counter so I won't even put a label on this. I think we'll see gold head lower alright, but I don't think it would drop below the range shown on my chart.

    I've been thinking for quite a long time that when a deflationary phase takes hold, I'd expect the US dollar to surge of course, but right along with it I think the yen holds up well and I think gold holds up well, better than silver. IOW, I think we're going to see the day when gold disconnects (I can't think of the word I'm looking for) from equities and starts to behave like the 'real money' that it is. If we start to see the Euro tank and the dollar soar, then gold is going to look mighty inviting to everybody who's using currencies other than the US dollar. So I think there's a floor under it and my guess would be somewhere around $1500 at the lowest.

    I don't pretend to know for sure, but that's been my opinion for a couple of years now. Right now there's no pos. divergence in the RSI nor the stochastics for gold. I think one is coming with the next little leg lower for gold. I'd sure look at going long gold at that point.

  23. Have a jolly St Nick Day AR & rest assured I'll tip one back in your honor!

  24. Thanks Zimmer and all the best to you and your family as well. Merry Christmas!

  25. Hey Albertarocks, hope you had a wonderful Christmas day, and eve, and day after! Sort of dropped out of blogs for a few days.

    And a happiest of new years to you too!!!
    2012 ought to be vewy intewesting.

    Thanks for all you do, and for your friendship, and your contributions, and for making a respectful oasis.


  26. a belated Xmas cheer to you and all. Reading the web today I, like many, tripped over the Gonzalo Lira commentary over on Zerohedge, and it seriously got me to thinking, that yes, we are not paying enough attention to the real implications of the MF Global bankruptcy. And, more disturbing was my feeling afterwards that I was kinda lost as to safe havens for my dollars, besides the precious metals. Perhaps you may want to start up a thread soliciting thoughts and ideas from the more knowledgable as to what alternatives there are for those who have been fortunate enough to have accumulated serious cash over the years. Here's the link to the article www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-run-global-banking-system-how-close-are-we . Considering the fact that anyone who trades options,futures, or even a majority of etf's are actually seriously exposed to the derivative ponzi. Jack.

  27. Hey there Greg. Yes I had a pretty nice Christmas so far... just got back from spending some seriously high quality time with my daughter at her home. Lots of laughs as usual, not to mention some more much needed learning that I often get from her regarding computers in one way or another. Today it was all about 'social networking', what Twitter is all about, how it works, etc. She's one who would certainly know since her degree is in the field of health information science where she has considerable experience in putting together information sharing systems for various health groups including governments.

    And happiest of New Years to you as well. I agree, I think that if we found 2011 to be interesting, we're going end 2012 realizing that 2011 was just the warm-up.

    And you're more than welcome for the things you listed. The "friendship" thing... that's just an automatic until an individual shows me he doesn't want it but would rather just be a disruptivion to my life to the benefit of nobody. Unfortunately, not all people are great folk like you and the rest of our friends. The "disturbers" won't be participating here for long. Pretzel's and Pebble's spots are the same... no patience for disrespectful or antagonistic morons.

    I hope 2012 is super successful for ya Greg... I sincerely do. Drop in any time you like, but like I mentioned before, the atmosphere here is pretty 'easy'... you don't have to be commenting 'regularly', just whenever you have time or feel like it. I often don't even have the time myself. All the best buddy :-)

  28. Hey there Anonymous Jack, lol. A belated Christmas cheer to you too bud.

    Thanks for your link to Gonzalo's article. I've found him to be an interesting character, very confident in his beliefs to the point of near arrogance. But he sure makes a lot of sense. For sure, the MF Global case only serves to prove beyond the shadow of a doubt, that when the SHTF, the banks will steal their clients' money. The corruption and blatant criminal activity prevalent on Wall Street and within the banking community is so prevalent that it's quite literally 'unbelievable'. But we'd better believe it.

    As far as alternatives are concerned, the very safest alternative I can think of is unfortunately unavailable to anybody not residing in the province of Alberta. I've tried to get a few of my American friends hooked up with the Alberta Treasury Branch but sadly, to the best of my knowledge only one American actually did it. and that person may have made an actual physical trip up here. I believe he did since he had relatives in Calgary if I'm not mistaken.

    The reason I've suggested this bank is because it's the only bank in the world that I know of whose guarantees of the safety of deposits is backed by a government of a wealthy province, rich in resources, and which has no debt. What better backer could one ask for than that? Not only that, but there is literally no limit to the size of the deposit that would be fully guaranteed. $50 million? They wouldn't even bat an eye at that amount... fully guaranteed. Literally... no limit.

    The only problem though seems to be that those who'd want to open account can't provide an Alberta residential address. I've even had a sit-down discussion with the manager of my branch where I told him that I could absolutely bring millions of dollars to his branch, with full disclosure that it would mostly be from Americans. Again... all he pointed out is that the bank's sole purpose for its existence is to benefit "residents of Alberta". They don't care what nationality the person is.

    In fact, the ATB has accounts where the mailing addresses are from all over Europe and the USA, but in most cases they are Albertans who are working abroad. But that's not the deciding criteria... the only criteria is that the person must provide an Alberta residential address. No doubt some of those accounts are actually Americans who in fact are working in Alberta.

    I've wanted to help many times but this issue seems to be a roadblock when I don't think it has to be. Hell, maybe I should start charging a small fee in exchange for supplying that address? In my opinion it would be perfectly legitimate if I took in a "renter". Hell, for the right price my girlfriends would get turfed outta here to make room in a New York second, lol.

  29. Well AR, I just might take you up on that idea, but I would have to insist that the girls stay, or else .... no go....hell, it's so darn cold in your neck of the woods, you need that extra warmth! J

  30. A message to katzo7, bringing our discussion here from from the post on the DAX. We can have a beer in here too, lol.


    Yeah the same thing happened to me. I wrote a simple piece of prose that got a ton of "like"s. It was a bit of a rant and at the same time a kind of metaphor for a market that rises in the face of every bit of bad news the world could throw at it. Then all of a sudden, somebody trashed it and his comment got about 10 likes... all coming from the same person but with different IDs. As you pointed out, it looked like half the board had suddenly turned on me which, as it turns out, they hadn't.

    Is that Fergalicious you're referring to? I saw a reply that person left to me after I'd commented about your name and of course I just assumed Fergy wasn't a katzo7 fan. I didn't respond to Fergy for that reason. In any event, you obviously know what I mean katzo7... I'm a very reasonable person. But there's just a common sense line that, if nobody else will police, I will. To be honest I doubt very much that it's going to become an issue here. The trolls know why I set up this blog and they can try it if they want... ONCE.

  31. LOL, shoot first and ask questions later. These trolls usually post no or lousy charts and offer no market commentary. OR they are like a few on Daneric's site who 'know it all, are didactic as hell, are obviously smarter than us all, and definitely know where the market is going. I use this as peripheral info, it is prominent on Dan's site now saying 'the market IS going up, economy is doing better.' Pretzel's site is very good, do you hang out there during trading days? His analysis is what I believe, if I posted that on Dan's site I would immediately be attacked (a good contrarian indicator IMO). Thnxs for discussions with me.

  32. No, I haven't hung out at Pretzel's much since I only discovered it a short while back. But I was immediately impressed with both his charting skills and perhaps even more importantly, his great writing skills. It's a great mix.

    He's a great guy and engages in dialogue with his readers as well. He 'does' insist on civility and respect and I was recently honored to have been placed on his relatively short blogroll. Prior to that, I had placed his site on my blogroll right off the bat, along with Pebblewriter. Both great guys. But when I first made a comment on Pretzel's site, he didn't know who I was and was perhaps a bit suspicious that I was a pimper of my own stuff. But I was very respectful. As it turns out, we later had a great conversation, both on his blog and here. In fact you can see that conversation above. He found out that I'm a decent guy who values the 'respect' aspect above almost anything else. So our relationship is very good, although kind of in it's infancy.

    Speaking of respect, I like Danno. So, so far I have never actually said the name of his site here when complaining about trolls and I'd prefer that we don't go there. He's a good guy but for the life of me I don't understand the philosophy of "freedom of speech" to the point where a blog can be totally destroyed. It just makes no sense. But I'll just leave it at that and will continue to admire his ability to perceive and interpret the social mood as it evolves in the world around us. The saddest aspect is that I have a truckload of good friends there but no longer engage in dialogue with them there. I can't... not without the social misfits chiming in constantly.

    Enough of that. We'll just move forward from here and try to make some money in the coming year. And be a little happier while doing it, lol.

  33. Hope you do not mind me posting a chart A.R. Been buying TZA during the last week below 26. As you can see, someone loaded up on this right off that 25.30 ish level. This is what I look for and I even went so far on another chart as to explore a TZA & SPX relationship. Very interesting.


  34. Hey AR, I just developed a new indictor. The ITCHIT top indictor.

    Increase in Troll Comments Heckling Indicator of a Top.

    It went off this week and this weekend on Daneric's blog. They are extremely good contrary indicators, them! Feeling even better about my AUD/USD short ... may be early, so it's on a short leash.

  35. Haha, I saw the action at the other site. That Wagner has literally gone off his rocker. Did you know that he's also been... hang on it's so insane I shouldn't even mention it here. This is private email info. I'll send you an email tomorrow. It's after midnight here and I'm watching the movie 2012 right now, LMAO. What a crock! YAY!

  36. What's the scoop?! Nothing would surprise me with that loon. He must spend all his time posting insults. What a waste of a life. I'll look for your email, hope to get it before my wife deletes all emails she doesn't recognize. LOL. Hope you enjoyed your weekend! I remember 2012 the movie ... maybe there are some good foreshadowing things in there, turn dates ... hahaha. Cheers.

  37. Hi Greggor. Sorry dude, I still haven't gotten that email off to you. I work every weekend but I thought I could squeeze it in. Tomorrow ;-)

  38. I got your email, thanks! Good to know. I thought you worked evenings ... didn't know weekends. I remember you arranged your schedule to be in front of your screen during market hours ... well done! That's my dream.

    Hey, that Mike Wagner is truly losing it today. Glad you've kept him out of here! Such a peaceful environment, ahhhh.

  39. I do work evenings but generally take Tues. and Wed. evenings off. I can't work every night, lol. But I have worked 90 weekends in a row now. And on the weekends it's also evenings. If I didn't work outside my home/office, I'd go nuts.

  40. We've moved our conversation to the pub next door. Feel free to top up your mug there.

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