Saturday, March 31, 2012

Where Friends Gather - March 31, 2012

We've moved on to the next pub folks.  We're well entrenched in a long weekend, the jobs report was a huge miss and the futures have tanked.  We're going to be seeing a bright red week ahead, so what better opportunity to move along to another pub to start off a fresh week than this?  We'll move a few of the charts from below to the next post, so let's all meet there.  The previous pub session (March 24th) was located here. 

So here we are at a fresh pub since the previous one eventually got boring enough that it emptied out.  That's what happens when the blogmeister doesn't provide a daily dose of new charts, visions, predictions and/or wave counts.  As I'd stated from the beginning, I am not an EW specialist.  This space was created mainly out of my own selfish desire to be able to work in a friendly, troll-free environment.  This is where I put together analysis that I find to be quite valuable, complete with the charts that apply to that particular study..  The vast majority of the time it's simply reduced to draft form so that I can easily find it later for reference.  It's where I produce and keep my 'stuff'.  

Occasionally any articles or rants that I feel I'd like to share end up as an article that I publish here, sometimes with the intention of having it published to a wider audience elsewhere.  I'm glad some of you have accepted the opportunity to exchange ideas in a friendly room.  The whole idea here is to help each other.  We act like a team here.  Those who opt to disrupt the team's good karma or whose goal it is to attack others won't last long in here.  To be honest, those who feed trolls aren't particularly welcome here either since by doing so they demonstrate that they don't really care much about being able to operate in a clean office.  They're not serious enough about being successful in my opinion.  This is a business.  So without further ado... welcome to a fresh new pub where you're free to post whatever you like (within reason... you know what I mean). Let's make some money.


Grab yourself a cold pint and fire away.

I'd like to start this one off with a chart that really grabbed my attention this week.  This one is courtesy of our friend Pretzel who is in my opinion perhaps the finest all-round talent out there in the world of EWT.  In no way is that a slam against any of the other very fine EW analysts out there either.  It's simply a reflection of my humble opinion that Pretzel's 'total talent package' is pretty much unsurpassed.

In no way did the author of the chart below suggest that "this is what the count is".  It is simply one of the alternatives, one which IMHO seems to have a fairly good chance of representing something fairly close to what might lie ahead.  Please take note of the upper annotation on this chart.  There is so much wisdom and logic in that thought that it stands to reason that the count below would be just about the most frustrating thing that could ever develop at this dangerous stage of the game.  Therefore... that's probably the one! :-)

 One of several good and reasonable  prospects as envisioned by Pretzel Logic.  One which represents the greatest degree of investor agony.

Personally, I can also see the possibility of a H&S emerging which of course would take a few more days to develop properly, and I can also see a perfectly good argument for the markets to head lower immediately on Monday morning.  Particularly with the market internals having already deteriorated to such an extent that much more upside could barely be possible with fewer and fewer stocks advancing, or making new highs, or above their own 50 day MA, etc.  But the pattern which would provide the greatest degree of "screw 'em all up real good" is represented by the vision above.  Until proven otherwise then, I think since the count above represents the greatest possible degree of agony for the masses it is therefore probably very close to the correct count. A special hat tip and "thank you" to Pretzel for his always cooperative nature.  Thanks pardner! 

In the chart below, we see Elliott Wave Theory at its finest, AR style.  In this chart I demonstrate how 1+1+1+1+1=3.

One must learn to think outside the box. To the best of my knowledge that's often the only way it works.

In the chart below we see that we are potentially witnessing the development of one of the best classic H&S patterns in quite a while.  Ideally, a H&S pattern should be formed with the right end of the neckline lower than the left end.  Such a set-up is far more bearish than one where the neckline slopes up to the right.  The Aussie:Yen cross is certainly on the way to forming such a beast and the pattern will remain alive as long as the candles don't rise above the head.  

Potentially this could develop into one heck of a nice classic H&S pattern.  Almost perfect at the moment.  Click here for a live and updating version.  If you can't see the annotations, here's the print version.  And a much closer look.

In the chart above, we have a doubly good reason to expect that if the neckline is broken the crash in this currency pair could be very exciting.  Here's why.  The neckline is already sloping downward.  But before the recent low was put in place, there was a previous H&S pattern where the previous neckline was horizontal.  Can you see that original grey neckline ok?

So what happened was that in the first H&S pattern the the neckline was broken and undoubtedly some investors were sucked in by it.  It was a flop.  I'll bet more than just a handful of speculators got caught going short the Aussie and/or long the Yen.  I hate to sound cynical, but that is a classic from the Goldman Handbook of Market Wizardry known as Rip Maneuver #666.16HS.  The most recent bounce in the pair is currently setting up the final right shoulder.  If it works out as planned by yours truly, then the next time the pair drops down to test the neckline it will slice through it like a hot knife through buttah.  And of course this produces a measurable move that would drop the pair down to 0.81 'at the minimum'.  This is one of the most exciting patterns in all of stockdom that we're seeing developing here.  Let's keep our fingers crossed because we can all make some serious dough if this pans out, as a result of its implications.  If the Aussie:Yen pair starts to head south with conviction, so will equities with darned near a 99% certainty.

One thing I'm sure all of you know, but I just want to make sure... in no way does this pair know whether or not the Aussie dollar is going to be rising or falling during this entire process.  Same with the Yen.  All it's saying is that as long as the pair starts to head south to complete the pattern, the Aussie dollar would be under-performing the Yen.  In theory both currencies could be rising while that is occurring.  Of course the simplest way to get the job done would be with the Aussie falling and the Yen rising.   However that outcome isn't necessarily what a "ratio" like this implies.  It doesn't know.  Nor does it need to know.  For the purposes of using this pair as a measure of "risk off" though, it doesn't matter what's happening to the individual currencies.  Realistically though, if the pair drops to fulfill the H&S dream pattern, it probably means that the Aussie would be falling and the Yen either falling less hard or perhaps even rising.

This one is getting very, very exciting!

Look out below.  Just a heads up that there are significant air pockets just beneath the market.  This situation exists in every single market I can get volume stats for.
 
One of the potentially juiciest set-ups we've seen in a long while is in progress.  Probably 'into the gap' and then lower.  Click here for a live and updating chart.




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Saturday, March 24, 2012

Where Friends Gather - March 24th, 2012

We've moved on to the next pub folks.  This one has run out of suds.  Please feel free to join us at the new digs


The previous pub session (March 18th) was located here and we enjoyed some great discussion back there about some really good charts, so feel free to revisit that post at any time.  We'll bring some of those charts forward if required.

Well it seems that this room is catching on and the right kind of people are showing up here.  So here we are at a fresh pub since the previous one was getting very clogged with conversation.  That's wonderful.  I'm glad some of you have accepted the opportunity to exchange ideas in a friendly room.  The whole idea here is to help each other.  We act like a team here.  Those who opt to disrupt the team's good karma or whose goal it is to attack others won't last long in here.  Other than that, you're free to post whatever you like (within reason... you know what I mean).  I'd thrown out the idea that some of your own charts can also appear up here in the main post, but I'm starting to think that we had better restrict those ones to what is most current.  I mean, our goal here is to trade well tomorrow and all week, so I think charts that might help us do that should be up here.  Also, I've opened myself up to creating disappointment for some if I don't put their chart up here.  So we'll play that one day at a time.  I don't mean to offend anybody so maybe that wasn't such a good idea.  So I'll start if off with the first chart below which, as you can see, looks eerily like a nice frosty pint of beer.

Potentially this could develop into one heck of a nice classic H&S pattern.  Almost perfect at the moment.  Click here for a live and updating version.  If you can't see the annotations, here's the print version.  And a much closer look.

We've moved on to the next pub folks.  Feel free to join us there.

The NDX is the only major index remaining with a gap beneath.  Click here for an updating print version.

S&P Daily - This chart was taken from the article that discussed what seemed impossible back in January,  "But What If?".  Click here for the live and updating version.

$DAX DAILY - The action in the $DAX is looking toppy now.  But really, we need to see more.  For example, if those moving averages roll lower (and the first one has), we still need to see that lower trend line be broken.  And then there's the issue of getting below the level identified by the horizontal red line.  Click here for a live and updated chart.

Just a few levels of importance.  Click here for a live "print" version that covers a longer time span and shows 2 trend lines.

AAPL is abandoning the NDX today.  This is a VERY bad sign if it continues.  Click here for a live and updating chart.




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Sunday, March 18, 2012

Where Friends Gather - March 18th, 2012

We've moved on to the next pub folks.  This one has run out of suds.  Please feel free to join us at the new digs 

The previous pub session was located here. There was some great discussion going on there so feel free to revisit that post at any time.


UPDATE (at the bottom): MARCH 22, 2011

Well it seems that this general discussion room is catching on and the right kind of people are showing up here, lol.  So I thought I'd start a fresh pub since the conversation seems to be zeroing in on the view from 30,000 feet.  Besides, the previous page was growing and getting a bit burdensome to load.  We seem to be trying to nail down the larger pattern before we can even begin to figure out what might lie before us in the weeks ahead, let alone the 'days' ahead. 

Look out below.  Just a heads up that there are significant air pockets just beneath the market.  This situation exists in every single market I can get volume stats for.


We've moved on to the next pub folks.  Feel free to join us there.

The next chart is the one which seems to have ignited the current flow of conversation.  It's a great chart published by Permabear Doomster. Judging his latest comment in the previous pub, he has been refining it.  But this is a great start:

To see the piece where this chart came from, please visit  Permabear Doomster's shiny new blog.  He's putting up some great charts over there.


The next chart is one which I myself had drawn up in response to seeing PD's chart (above).  The first thing that popped right

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Where Friends Gather - March 13th, 2012

We've moved on to the next pub.  Feel free to meet us there.

After chatting briefly with BrightFire, I thought I'd put together one space where friends could gather to chat about anything related to markets.  Kind of a general meeting place where readers will more than likely run into a friend or two.  It's a place where I put up no charts, set no stage and suggest no topic or agenda. More than likely the topic of discussion will almost always revolve around "what's happening in the markets right now". As it turns out, several friends have dropped in to this site with comments but they always seem to gravitate to whichever happens to be the latest article or post that I've published .  The problem is that I don't publish something every single day... like Pretzel does for example.  By the way, if you haven't yet been to Pretzel's I highly recommend that you check it out.  The guy is outstanding on just so many levels... not to mention that in my opinion he's the single best EWT guy out there because he's not afraid to see the bullish possibilities when they are in fact staring us right in the face (at least as possibilities).  His charting abilities, his writing talents, his friendliness and his professionalism... he has all of those attributes in spades.  By professionalism, I'm really thinking of the way he runs that site (no trolls), but in reality the guy's a pro in every respect.   So are my other blogging friends but Pretzel's site is probably the one that will look very familiar to most of you.

In any case, welcome to the pub.  I'd actually prefer that you use this space for general discussion, unless you'd actually like to make a comment specifically directed at any particular article.   In that case, by all means feel free to also comment at any article you like.  Just remember that the pub is always open.


We've moved on to the next pub.  Feel free to join us there.
Here's a great chart just published by Permabear Doomster.  After seeing today's action, I have absolutely no argument with this outcome.  In fact, I now think this forecast is highly likely:

To see the full series, please visit Permabear Doomster's shiny new blog.  He's putting up some great charts over there.
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Sunday, March 11, 2012

A Divergence For The Decade - Thanks For The Body Check Doc

This morning I was reminded of why I value my friends as highly as I do.  In a discussion on another post with our friend, the ever popular doctor_jr., doc pointed out the following fact: "SPX has been up 9 of the last 10 weeks and the one down week was by less than 2 pts.  European sovereign debt has been the top financial news issue for the entire period."

As would be expected, such a realization struck me as being a rather astonishing and impressive statistic, especially in light of the fact that it actually hadn't dawned on me that that was the case... until doc told me.  But his comment also immediately inspired another thought to come to mind.  And that thought was this: "Really doc?  Since I actually pay more attention to the high risk stocks for faster signals I hadn't even realized that the S&P has been up 9 of the 10 past weeks.  The Russell sure hasn't!".  So I was suddenly shaken out of my stupor by doc's comment and immediately dived into the following analysis, one which I've been totally remiss in failing to investigate for over a year.

There's little doubt that a good percentage of the investing public is aware that in good times, times when there is little fear of a stock market pullback, the higher risk stocks outperform the benchmark S&P 500.  It's a reflection of the attitude toward taking a higher degree of risk without too much fear of suffering losses.  Both the private retail investor community and especially the corporate sector participate in the orgy, more often than not with reckless abandon.  There are so many different methods of measuring the appetite for risk and most of them are very reliable.  In the currency arena, the Aussie:Yen cross has simply been outstanding in its direct correlation with the S&P 500.  Measuring the relationship between the consumer staples stocks and the consumer discretionary stocks is just another in a long list of vehicles that can be used to measure the relative degree of complacency.  The much misunderstood and usually misused VIX is another.  But there probably isn't a more direct measure of the appetite for risk than simply comparing the higher risk Russell 2000 with the S&P itself.  And that's something I admit that I've forgotten to do for quite some time until I was jolted out of slumber by doctor_jr.  For those of you who have never played hockey, I can assure you that there's nothing like a good solid body check to wake a guy up.  And I was always under the impression that doc was a basketball guy!  Go figure!!

In the series of charts below I'd like to draw your attention to the divergences... periods of time when the Russell is either outperforming or under-performing the S&P 500.  It's also very important to be aware of what had been happening in the stock markets in general immediately prior to the development of each of the divergences.  Specifically, were they rising or falling?  The annotations on the charts probably tell the story about as clearly as any more dialogue so I'll simply present the charts in the sequence that I think will display the story with the greatest clarity.  We begin by looking at the weekly chart which compares the price action between the Russell 2000 and the S&P over the past dozen years:

WEEKLY - Russell 2000 compared to S&P 500 over the past 12 years.  These are the only divergences that have occurred in the past 21 years... since the Russell was introduced.  (Right click to open a larger version).  Click here for a live and updated version with a closer look.

The single most important consideration when viewing all these charts is to keep in mind what the S&P 500 (as the benchmark) is doing.  Is it falling during the divergence?  If so, then so is the broader NYSE and there is clearly a lot of fear in