Keep in mind that contrary to 'any and every' report you've read in recent months, the HO has never gone off since August of 2010. Every single report you might have read, I also read... and every single one of them was in error because in most cases the HO wasn't even on line at the time. You can't get a signal from your television if it isn't even plugged into the wall, yet some of the other analysts who are not aware of the very strict rules apparently have the ability to watch TV when it's not plugged in. A cool trick, but I wouldn't trust the news from a TV like that.
So stay tuned, we'll be updating this post as well as my ongoing reports at Seeking Alpha that have been running for 3 1/2 years now.
EDITED NOV. 8TH, 2012 - Just adding this update to inform readers that the close shaves are continuing. Repeated 'near misses' represent exactly the same type of activity we saw in the market internals just before the last HO signal events. That shouldn't necessarily be taken to mean that "a signal is definitely coming" because that's not necessarily the case. Needless to say though, it's certainly fair warning that regardless of whether the HO actually goes off or not, the markets are obviously on very shaky ground at the moment and are very polarized. At the close of trading today the NYSE had generated 61 new highs and 85 new lows. Had it produced 86 of each the HO would have issued a signal. These types of close shaves should be viewed as being 'near misses' because the message they're delivering is still the same... the markets are on very thin ice right now. On a side note, there was even one popular blog that 'today' reported that the HO has gone off. It hasn't. Right on that website, the author quotes the rules required for the HO to issue a signal and as much as I hate to be the bearer of bad news, those rules are 3 years old. Nonetheless, that's a nice blog and the author is just another in the long list of innocent TA guys who didn't get the memo back when the rules were changed. Nobody can blame him for that. To his credit, he is looking at all the right things and is fully aware of the implications. He's also probably a very nice man and to top if off, he's a Texan. Texans and Albertans have always gotten along very well, mainly because of interactions concerning the oil business. :-)
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I'd just like to post this heads up that the Hindenburg Omen came about as close today to issuing its first signal since August of 2010 as we're ever going to see without it actually going off.
Contrary to any and all reports you may have read stating otherwise, the HO has not gone off at any time since that instance back in 2010. A full explanation about why any previous reports that you may have read were absolutely false will be contained in a full article that will appear on this very page when the HO does issue a signal. It's all those false claims by analysts who aren't even aware of the HO's rules that give it such a bad name. It's the real deal, I assure you. So please stay tuned.
Also, please be aware that this type of "near miss" occurred several times in the days leading up to the HO's signal during the week before and the "morning of" the flash crash. Don't forget to click the tab at the top of this page if you haven't already done so and read about "So The HO Issues A Signal. What Happens Next?" Awe to heck with it, just click this thing.
It's still possible the HO won't issue a signal at all, especially if there's some solid buying that enters the market tomorrow and thereafter. It wouldn't take much to change these market internals dynamics for the positive but until we actually see it, rest assured that the market is extremely polarized and fragile right now. But until the HO actually goes off, why don't you come on up north and we'll do a little surfing, Canadian style.
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Please feel free to bookmark this page and check in regularly since the HO is just humming right now and has been for the past couple of weeks.
Stay well!
