Keep in mind that contrary to 'any and every' report you've read in recent months, the HO has never gone off since August of 2010. Every single report you might have read, I also read... and every single one of them was in error because in most cases the HO wasn't even on line at the time. You can't get a signal from your television if it isn't even plugged into the wall, yet some of the other analysts who are not aware of the very strict rules apparently have the ability to watch TV when it's not plugged in. A cool trick, but I wouldn't trust the news from a TV like that.
So stay tuned, we'll be updating this post as well as my ongoing reports at Seeking Alpha that have been running for 3 1/2 years now.
EDITED NOV. 8TH, 2012 - Just adding this update to inform readers that the close shaves are continuing. Repeated 'near misses' represent exactly the same type of activity we saw in the market internals just before the last HO signal events. That shouldn't necessarily be taken to mean that "a signal is definitely coming" because that's not necessarily the case. Needless to say though, it's certainly fair warning that regardless of whether the HO actually goes off or not, the markets are obviously on very shaky ground at the moment and are very polarized. At the close of trading today the NYSE had generated 61 new highs and 85 new lows. Had it produced 86 of each the HO would have issued a signal. These types of close shaves should be viewed as being 'near misses' because the message they're delivering is still the same... the markets are on very thin ice right now. On a side note, there was even one popular blog that 'today' reported that the HO has gone off. It hasn't. Right on that website, the author quotes the rules required for the HO to issue a signal and as much as I hate to be the bearer of bad news, those rules are 3 years old. Nonetheless, that's a nice blog and the author is just another in the long list of innocent TA guys who didn't get the memo back when the rules were changed. Nobody can blame him for that. To his credit, he is looking at all the right things and is fully aware of the implications. He's also probably a very nice man and to top if off, he's a Texan. Texans and Albertans have always gotten along very well, mainly because of interactions concerning the oil business. :-)
============== original article follows below ==============
I'd just like to post this heads up that the Hindenburg Omen came about as close today to issuing its first signal since August of 2010 as we're ever going to see without it actually going off.
Contrary to any and all reports you may have read stating otherwise, the HO has not gone off at any time since that instance back in 2010. A full explanation about why any previous reports that you may have read were absolutely false will be contained in a full article that will appear on this very page when the HO does issue a signal. It's all those false claims by analysts who aren't even aware of the HO's rules that give it such a bad name. It's the real deal, I assure you. So please stay tuned.
Also, please be aware that this type of "near miss" occurred several times in the days leading up to the HO's signal during the week before and the "morning of" the flash crash. Don't forget to click the tab at the top of this page if you haven't already done so and read about "So The HO Issues A Signal. What Happens Next?" Awe to heck with it, just click this thing.
It's still possible the HO won't issue a signal at all, especially if there's some solid buying that enters the market tomorrow and thereafter. It wouldn't take much to change these market internals dynamics for the positive but until we actually see it, rest assured that the market is extremely polarized and fragile right now. But until the HO actually goes off, why don't you come on up north and we'll do a little surfing, Canadian style.
|Surfin' Like A Boss|
Please feel free to bookmark this page and check in regularly since the HO is just humming right now and has been for the past couple of weeks.
oh good, an update. Two posts in as many days, it feels like Christmas :)ReplyDelete
Today sure would have annoyed those bull maniacs. Not only have we seen QE mark the top of the monthly charts, but his highness gets re-elected, and markets get whacked 3.5% across the following two days.
Q. Do we know if there was a HO triggered just prior to the 1987 crash?
Sorry, if its been mentioned before.
My pleasure HR. Thanks for checking in.ReplyDelete
Merry Christmas buddy! LOLReplyDelete
No worries PD, it's always ok to ask a question. Yes there was a HO signal back then. Dr. Robert McHugh (even though to this day still doesn't have the rules right) has the best records of past HO events. Here's a link to his data. It's an old page but it does contain the data you're asking about:
Thanks for that.ReplyDelete
From what I gather then, it really isn't about how many HO signals you get...but they are often good precursor warnings.
*I've truck load of kooky crash charts I waiting to post, but I can't do that until I see 1345...and probably then 1400.
I hope I'm right...we sure could all do with a good crash, not least to pay for some Christmas presents.
Right, there are often a cluster of signals. But once two of them are registered all the signals that follow are basically a moot point... of no consequence. Speaking of Christmas, we're getting a ton of snow right now. As much as I hate the winter and snowy driving conditions, I have to admit that to be in Banff or Canmore on a beautiful calm night like this when the snowflakes are falling as big as doilies and covering everything in sight including all the tall coniferous trees, it makes for some of the prettiest vistas I've ever seen in my life. When the snow is falling heavily on a calm night in a mountain town, that's when the magic happens. A great time at the pubs. But other than that, winter is a pain in the ass.ReplyDelete
Right, there are often a cluster of signals. But once two of them are registered all the signals that follow are basically a moot point... of no consequence. Speaking of Christmas, we're getting a ton of snow right now. As much as I hate the winter and snowy driving conditions, I have to admit that to be in Banff or Canmore on a beautiful calm night like this when the snowflakes are falling as big as doilies and covering everything in sight including all the tall coniferous trees, it makes for some of the prettiest vistas I've ever seen in my life. When the snow is falling heavily on a calm night in a mountain town, that's when the magic happens. A great time at the pubs. But other than that, winter is a pain in the ass.ReplyDelete
AR thanks for your outstanding work.ReplyDelete
It looks like the charts finally flipped to the bear side.
I'm looking at some bearish currency charts. I ran out of 1's & 2's on my Euro EW count. In the past I would count on a short squeeze blowing it up because so many 1s & 2s never work. Feels different this time.
Hi Greener. You're welcome bud. Yeah it's starting to feel different all right. If the market bounces today, based on what I'm seeing in the market internals at the moment I'd say the odds of getting the first HO signal today since Aug., 2010 are probably in the range of 98%. But the market will have to put in at least some sort of bounce most likely. But right now it's starting to salivate... I mean it's almost there dude, lol.ReplyDelete
Thanks for the linkReplyDelete
Looks like the bounce is here, but it's bumping up to & retesting the downsloping trendline
1395-1400 looks to be a real obstacle
Morning from York (UK), Alberta. You're probably aware that McHugh is claiming that a Hindenburg has now been generated (just received an alert stating "Stocks Generated anReplyDelete
official New Hindenburg Omen Stock Market Crash Warning Signal Monday, November
12th.")Presumably this doesn't tally with your findings just yet then?
Interesting to hear the HO is threatening to trigger.
It could be that AUDJPY is now ripe too...the plot is definitely thickening...
Good luck you clazy bastard!
How do you see the ratio resolving itself, DK? A deflationary price crash in commodities (and stocks?) resulting in a flight to safety away? I've noticed a few commentators turn bearish on the JPY and I'm thinking it'd be appropriately cruel for it to strengthen into one final peak and further crush the Japanese economy.ReplyDelete
York- nice place- spent a few weeks working there many moons ago. purely based on my own analysis of USDJPY &AUDJPY I see more Yen strength over the next year or two. I am a deflationista, and believe equities have been running on fumes for long enough...day of reckoning has to come at some point (& risk correlation with AUDJPY would go hand-in -hand with this). But I believe there are too many fundamental factors lined up in gold's favour for it to get hit too hard, whatever happens to the USD. I don't see gold as just a 'commodity'...soon enough it should take back it's rightful place at the centre of the global currency mechanism...watch out for a gold-backed Yuan to get the ball rolling as China makes a major power play. All speculation on my part of course, but that's my take. I think many 'perma-bears' have taken such a shellacking in last few years, it's hard to keep the faith. But if you believe there ain't such a thing as a free lunch, well..there's a 40-year long banquet that we have all gorged on, and we are now tentatively nibbling on the after-dinner mints nervously waiting for the bill & keeping our fingers crossed that the waiter has forgotten to tot it all up... (or something more Pythonesque!) (And some idiot economist at the end of the table has been ordering the Crystal by the bucketload in the hope we'll all get so smashed we won't notice what the hell's goin on)...hmmm..I quite like that!GLDK
I'm thinking along the same lines. My worry with gold, purely from a trading perspective, is that its price depends on the denominator and I can see the flight to safety being very kind to the USD in the intermediate term. Measured against anything else I can see it doing spectacularly well but if '08 was a foretaste of what's to come, deflation could hammer its nominal value. Obviously there's also a big danger that the paper and physical markets could be blown apart and there be a scramble for physical. As for China I have a nasty feeling that have a lot on their plate over the next 5-10 years. Compound functions hit up against finite limits very quickly and I think that mathematical reality will translate into a lot of pain over there.ReplyDelete
Yeah, prob correct re China, but have you seen how much gold they've been buying? not only that, they be extra smart, buying up gold mining companies too...lots in Africa & here too in Australia.ReplyDelete
but I don't believe the USD / gold correlation will hold up...I can see them both rocketing north at some point, when more & more people realise the whole financial & currency system is flawed & gold is recognised as true money once more, not just a 'barbarous relic' & just another commodity. Wether you believe in the conspiracy of gold price suppression over the last 40 years or not, it does make sense that this transformation of the perception of gold does threaten the power of the central bankers...
AUD is still pretty messy but your double zz sounds good to me.ReplyDelete
The thing about China is the official numbers can't be trusted. I've been following this person(s) analysis and he(they) has a metric for China based on trade with the US and it looks worse every time it comes up
Hi Tom. My apologies for not getting back to you much sooner. For some reason I missed every comment between the one from Greenface just below this one and the latest from DK. But I see them all now, lol.ReplyDelete
You're quite right. As much as I like McHugh as a person, for the life of me I can't understand why he's still using the rules that went extinct nearly 3 years ago. He's just flat out wrong. The old rules made it much easier for the HO to go off so if we use the old rules, then yes the HO has been 'closer' to having gone off but it wouldn't have gone off even using the old rules until Monday (two days ago).
I've spoken on the phone with Tom McClellan just to make 100% certain that I'm using all the right rules, and I am. But apparently I'm just about the only person who is, other than McClellan and Jim Meikka himself, the man who invented the HO. I guess you're not aware that I've been running a blog over at Seeking Alpha where I've been reporting on the HO and it's inner workings on an hourly basis for over 3 years now? Don't get me wrong, I don't waste my time with it except when the NYSE gets into real dangerous territory and gets the HO humming real good... like right now. If you're interested in checking in on the daily (and even hourly) goings on you can find it here:
In summary though, on Monday the HO came about as close to issuing a signal without actually doing so since it last went off in August, 2010. This has happened about 3 or 4 times in a row now, although yesterday it wasn't really close since the market just could not generate any new highs to speak of. This sort of action is almost an identical repeat of what happened the week before the flash crash and then again in the days leading up to the signal in August, 2010... "near misses" day after day after day. I warned my followers back then and I warn them now... the message is clear enough, don't feel like you're safe if the HO doesn't issue a signal because the market is extremely polarized and there extremely dangerous whether the HO actually goes off or not. That's not to say that a terrific bounce isn't possible though. In fact I'm very suspicious that one is coming soon.
Hope you're doing well Tom. Haven't seen you for a long time so it's good to hear your voice again.
The HO came really close to triggering on Monday bro... but as of today it's off-line and will be unable to issue a signal at all until the 50 day MA of the NYSE ($NYA) turns higher once again. Unless the NYSE puts in a spectacular rally over the next 2 weeks, that ain't gonna happen any time soon. So as was the case in the days leading up to the flash crash and the days leading up to the August 2010 decline (the last two times the HO went off), a series of 'near misses' was good enough for me. The message is the same whether the HO actually goes off or not... the market is exceedingly polarized. Readers can always tune in to the ongoing commentary I've had going on Seeking Alpha on that topic for over 3 years now. But they never do. They just keep asking me the same questions over and over again when it's all there on a day-to-day basis. Same with the readers at Danno's, often talking about the HO, getting sucked in to false reports, etc., when I've got the real goods going at all times. The only people who even bother to read the "latest up-to-the-minute news on the HO are the followers over at SA who have been reading there for the full 3 years plus. You're welcome to check in there too bro, any time you like. In fact I just published a fresh one a few minutes ago because the comment stream on the last one got so long:ReplyDelete
I keep hearing bears say how the market is getting oversold and how they will re-establish short positions on a Santa Rally. What if it never comes? Seems everyone was expecting the markets continuing to rise post-QE and into the election; they were predicting a post-election "bounce"; now it's all about an upwards correction from oversold positions and a rally into Christmas. But just as the contrarian bears kept getting caught out by the markets continuing to rise in late summer, maybe we'll just have what no one expects: a steady decline through the end of the year.ReplyDelete
The VIX certainly suggests people aren't particularly concerned: http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^VIX&t=1m&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
Yup, and I'm guilty of thinking the Santa rally is more likely than not. But I also suggested that all hell would break loose once the election was over, no matter who won it and the markets would tank. Obviously Romney won but that's beside the point. So I was right on 'that' aspect at least... that the markets would tank right after the election.ReplyDelete
But as for the Santa rally. Really, the only reason I could even justify expecting a Santa rally is that "don't we always see one?". Not really. Back in 2007 there was an attempt at one bit it pretty much flopped after the first week of December, fell hard and tried to regain those levels into Christmas but failed to do so. Then in 2008 it was a messy corrective grind higher which failed hard immediately into the new year. But it 'was' a Santa rally of sorts. 2009 and 2010 did produce Santa rallies. And last year there were two Santa rallies in Dec., lol. First one flopped but the second one took hold.
So normally there 'is' a Santa rally of sorts but in none of the past years were we facing a fiscal cliff at the turn of the year. Maybe that reality is starting to sink in? Texas sure knows about it! I hear you loud and clear about how the bears kept getting caught by the markets. In fact I made a comment on Pretzel's site a few days ago about that very topic... about how the bears went short at least 550 times after the March 2009 low, each time thinking they'd "nailed the top". So as bears, why should anybody possibly expect that all of a sudden they're going to be accurate bottom pickers? To even try to do that would be to repeat the exact same mistakes they made all throughout the entire rise off the 2009 lows. So I agree with you 100% about that.
I'm not overly concerned about what the VIX is doing because the VIX won't even get anywhere near its peak until the crash is nearly over. It seems 99% of investors expect that the VIX should be over 50 right now for some reason. It won't even really get cooking until the S&P is closer to 1000. IOW, yes right now it's suggesting far too much complacency. People aren't scared... yet. So overall I agree with your suggestion Tom... it's entirely possible the markets just continue to tank hard for months. Just like they pretty much did nothing but rise for 42 months.
Thanks for the update AR! Music to my bear's ears. He's very hungry, my pet bear.ReplyDelete
I've been fairly absent from your pub and have missed you all, and have been wanting to drop you a greetings for some time.
Looks like it finally might be ready to collapse in a heap. At long last. 1-2,i-ii,(i)-(ii),[i]-[ii].
Figure it has 4,000 pip potential to the downside, and maybe 0-70 pips potential to the upside! What good odds, eh?
That resistance line on the weekly chart looks like a brick wall.
And it already broke out of the bottom of that last [ii] which was an ending diagonal on the daily.
Hi Greggor. I guess we have to keep in mind that the HO did not go off although these near misses did occur just before the last two major declines. In each case the HO did issue a signal shortly after. In the case of August, 2010 it went off a bit later than usual but had the markets not been saved immediately thereafter by QE 2, then the market would have crashed like it wanted to and that signal would in retrospect be seen as signaling near the top.ReplyDelete
The market internals are very strongly supporting a rally here and that's the way I'm playing it for the time being... long. So needless to say I caught one hell of a nice ride so far today. I'm not sure about that damned Aussie dollar either. As you know that one is a monster to try to put a count on because as a standalone currency it seems so damned whippy with more overlaps than a shingled roof. On the weekly chart one thing that stands out pretty clearly is that since the high of August 2011 the action has been anything but impulsive. To me that indicates that all that action has just been 'corrective' implying higher prices to come. If I'm not mistaken at one time DK was in agreement with the chart below. I can't remember for certain about that and I don't know his thoughts on that issue today either. But I think this pattern is possible. I don't know 'how' it could be possible but that's what the chart seems to be saying.
Hey AR, nice to hear from you good sir!ReplyDelete
I was getting very leveraged short, but after a new count on the AUDUSD from DK and Geno that has a triple zigzag and one more higher high to 1.05ish, I jumped out. I can't see your chart, but I remember you had an abcde triangle with a much higher high implied ... in an earlier post. I don't see it getting above the weekly resistance line of 1.05ish, but that's just me. The AUDUSD is hard to predict, but it has honored that line for over a year ... many attempts have been swatted back. If they start cutting interest rates on Aussie, it will likely head down quickly. And I don't see QE3 money headed that way this time since China is slowing, aussie interest rates may decrease if economies continue to slow. the carry trade unwind should start soon, but that's just a hunch. And the volume looks wimpy the past few months (no real buyers).
Anyway, I've got one eye closed so I don't see double images because I'm too tired for my eyes to focus into one image, but wanted to respond to you before collapsing into the bed.
P.S. I'm no longer short, but don't have the shitzpa to go long while I sleep.
McHugh is claiming that it went off on the 12th. Unfortunately, I don't know how he's calculating things. Since I'm not an expert, I can't even venture to what he's doing, but I thought maybe you might be able to shed some light on this.ReplyDelete
McHugh is using the rules that went defunct 3 years ago when Jim Meikka made some critical adjustments. He made the changes to make up for the increased number of bond funds and inverse ETFs, the result being that the "required minimum" number of new 52 week highs and lows are considerably more difficult to attain now. As well McHugh pays no attention whatsoever to the cardinal rule that the 50 day MA on the NYSE must be "rising". What else can I say HR, I've explained why all these erroneous claims by misinformed analysts at least 4 million times here, at D's site, on Seeking Alpha, on Pretzel's, everywhere. But the reports just keep on coming from people who just don't have a clue. As our friend Wagner would say... "sad really". LOLReplyDelete
I'm out of the AUDUSD now, but am long again the USDJPY. It's doing it's thing.ReplyDelete
I'm hoping it's getting above 84 for a minor 1 of a P3 up with a next target of 90.
That would be a black swan of sorts. Doing away with one safe haven currency, and unwinding some carry trades to boot. We shall see. But a continuation of that big surge in March looks like it's possible.
Good luck with those trades bud. I haven't traded currencies since the 90's so I don't watch the various pairs as much as I do the Aussie:Yen and the Aussie itself. But about the Yen... Kyle Bass has a lot to say about it in this interview. It's a good interview start to end but if you want to cut to the Yen portion of his comments, go to the 3:30 mark.ReplyDelete
Does the HO go off on both down days, up days? Thanks.ReplyDelete
Holy crap nice work GregReplyDelete
I was thinking a pullback was going to happen this week on USDJPY, but it looks like it's headed far higher before it stops.
I still like the bearish case for the AUD (along with stocks)
Yes, it could go off whether it be an up day or a down day as long as all the criteria are met. On Wednesday of last week the HO went "off-line" though, meaning one of the criteria was no longer complying with the rules. And that was the fact that last Wednesday the 50 day MA of the NYSE turned lower. You can see that in this chart. So since that day it has been impossible for the HO to issue a signal no matter whether all the other criteria were met or not. As long as the 50 day MA is pointing lower the HO is kind of like a television that isn't plugged in... it simply cannot issue a signal.ReplyDelete
Thanks Greenface, I don't know if you saw the chart I posted over at troll-central yesterday, but it's the proposed extended fifth wave to get us to beyond the 84 for a minor 1 of P3 up ... it'll need to take out the 84 from back in March, and the only way it can get up there. I had no idea how fast it could move tho, and was out waiting for a pull back for some of this move from 79 to 82.5. Up until now it's been a perfect wave count, so this appears to be one also ... nice tight channel for the extended fifth ... and only midway in(iii) of v now. I'm holding till 84.2. Anyway your count was what started me on the yen obsession. And DK back when the wedge first broke.ReplyDelete
Yesterday's chart I was too tired to post of the extended fifth wave of minor 1 of P3 up.
Nice tight channel. Didn't catch the entire move as I was in the habit of getting out after moves to wait for pull backs.
Might just be in the middle of (iii) of v. Target 84.20+ to break P1 high in March.
This pair is following the road map count to the penny. Never seen anything like it, but only been counting and currencying for a year.
Still won't let me load the chart.
Hey, just listened to that interview ... WOW!ReplyDelete
No wonder that USDJPY is following the counts so perfectly.
I think many people including the BOJ are helping it weaken.
And with their GDP weakening, their exports falling, China boycotting their products, and debt issues coming to a head ... a currency weakening is guaranteed. i of P3 up should be to 84, then P3 should be 90, and that's only intermediate 1 ... this is probably headed to 120 in a year or two. Greatest trade possible this year. Perhaps. Thanks for the inteview!
I was going to post this on the other place, but those maniacs sure don't deserve me over there.
Anyway, this is on my mind this weekend - along with all the other stuff I've already posted up...
I'd guess maybe a higher Monday open, but stalling within the morning, and rolling lower into Tuesday... but then yet another dumb bounce...to maybe max out on Wed/Thur.
I suppose we could max out at any time though. After all, we're already 66pts up from the low, add in another 10/15, and thats gotta be close to all that the maniacs are getting.
Let me know what ya think.
PD you're showing the current rally completing 5 legs. So should I assume you're thinking it's just the first wave of something larger to the upside? Because looking at the market internals, I'm sure not seeing any reason to argue with the notion of another leg upward to new highs. The entire pattern off the March '09 lows is almost looking to me like a "leading" diagonal... or a leading "something". Notice that every single up leg since the lows of '09 have actually been steeper than the one preceding it, not shallower as we'd expect with a weakening market. The market almost seems to be gaining momentum, not losing it. Maybe what lies ahead is some sort of blow-off top which might account for the apparent steepening of the aggressive uplegs. But whatever it is, I'm damned near in the mood to just let myself go flat out bullish and stay that way until the market shows me it wants to drop some more. Right now I'm not seeing 'any' evidence that it wants to drop. The market internals are very low and all of them are tuning higher, suggesting at least the possibility of something very bullish is in progress. I'm not hesitant at all to be long right now... which I am (but with hedges in place so that I don't really give a rat's ass which way it opens up on Monday). I should be fine either way although my tilt is to the upside. Here's what I'm think about the S&P Weekly.ReplyDelete
Its possible..I guess, But I find the notion of yet more highs difficult to envision.ReplyDelete
Your chart notes the overthrow, which is a sign of a conclusion, and yet you are still seeking new highs, contradicting the overthrow issue.
Yes, there is massive seasonal threat via a Santa rally, but we do have some very serious problems out there.
Despite the apparent booming economy in 2007..we sure didn't do well in December 2007. For me, that remains an interesting analogy/fractal.
Good wishes in the week ahead.
Looking at the indicators on the weekly chart,ReplyDelete
it really looks a lot like June 2011 to me, but with weaker corrections and stronger rallies it's hard to argue with AR.
Although the shorter waves portend a big move, the question is which way.
I was thinking about the weak fundamentals and wondering how or what is going to be the catalyst for the bull case.
The only thing that really sticks with me is the fact that 50% of the country just voted for Obama, so half the country actually thinks we were on the right track. Many on the other half may just give up swimming against the tide and try to figure out what the other side is seeing. Right or wrong, they're all going to behave and proceed like the country is on the right track. Maybe that lunacy, er, optimism propels us up and the proverbial animal spirits take hold.
Agreed PD, I was just looking at my chart again and noticing the annotation about the "breakout" which didn't materialize like I'd envisioned it would 8 weeks ago. Actually the market internals are lined up much better now than they were back then, for the breakout to happen on the 'next' test of that upper trend line. So I've had to alter that comment to suit the new situation as we see in 'now'. Thanks for the reminder.ReplyDelete
Please don't get me wrong, I'm not arguing 'strongly' for a massive breakout because as we all know, these indicators could indeed just be putting in a little 'burp' right here and it's still possible that the market tanks from here. But as Greener asks below, "what is going to be the catalyst for the bull case?". I haven't got a clue except if there's one thing we know for sure, even the slightest, stupidest "yay, good news" out of Europe is all it has taken time after time after time to ignite yet another bullshit rally. Whatever the case, I'm sure not seeing anything but bullishness out of Europe right now as well. For example, the DAX. This most recent weekly candle on the DAX is about as bullish of a candle as we're ever going to see. I find it very hard to argue with it. That's not to say that the next weekly candle might make me change my opinion on that. But until we actually see the next candle or two completely negate last weeks bullish one, I can't see how we can interpret the current situation (as it stands on Sunday night, Nov. 25th) as anything but bullish. We'll see. For Monday I'd say a pullback is overdue but I'd be looking at that pullback as a buying opportunity, hopefully with impeccable timing and then tight stops. As the ancient Chinese proverb says... "We'll see". lol.
Here's how McHugh is seeing it. I agree, except that I'm not really expecting a lower low like he's showing. I was thinking along the lines of just a pullback of maybe 50% of the recent rally and then the market zooms off upward.ReplyDelete
I could write endlessly on the macro-economic picture, but there is plenty of that already out there.ReplyDelete
Suffice to say..the western economies are systemically failing - propped up in a QE paper bubble, which..when it burst - whether its hyperinflation or whatever, will be a terrible few years.
The one thing I think many of the bears do is over-think things. I'm seeing a lot of it lately, hell, I even do it myself.
In October, I set out a doomer case...
decline to 1345
'stupid bounce' to 1400/25
major wave lower to 1225
with a floor (for main wave'1) by March.
So far, its ...on track.
the irony is that I'm a touch anxious about re-shorting on Mon/Tue @ 1420/25. lol
Hey, after all..its 2012 ..what could possibly go wrong for the bulls this Christmas ? ;)
Yes, and I was using the June analogy/fractal when I was originally trying to pin a target floor in October.ReplyDelete
I came up with 1345, partly based on the June'2011 pattern, fib levels, and also the weekly charts themselves.
re: the 50% who voted for his communistic highness
The 'masses are asses'. Actually, I'd put the figure around 93% or so.
Animal spirits? I refer you to the youtube videos on the grossly overweight and ignorant consumers.
Those 'animals' will get what they deserve. I just hope I am around to see them get what they deserve. If that sounds harsh..well, its how it is.
The animals vote in a govt. that wilfully destroys the currency, and then exports much of their 'real jobs' abroad to the far east.
It remains the craziest society imaginable. Perhaps even more insane than the sick German populace of the 1930s.
How's it hanging?
Just thought I'd update my thoughts on AUDJPY, I know you love that one.
If my longer-term count is correct (it has been going according to plan since I came up with it a few months ago)
then it could be done right here (OK, I say tat every few weeks, but each time I get more convinced it's the real deal, lol)
hey AR.hope all is well.I saw you had commented on my blog,beneath the Russo video but stupidly I inadvertently pressed delete instead of publish before I had read it.I use the "approval" mode to blog out Wagner's crap. I wasnt even drinking so no excuse .My apologies !ReplyDelete
I'm pleased to report that it isn't "hanging", lol.ReplyDelete
Thanks for a great chart Amigo. Yes I love that one simply because of it's superb correlation with equities. Recently I'd had visions of that pair breaking out to the upside and heading much higher. But as it stands at the moment, the way you've labeled the latest leg higher does indeed tell a rather compelling story for 'downside' action... provided of course that this current up-leg finishes as an 'abc' and doesn't break out into a long fiver (up). It's still up in the air IMO but I can see where you're going with it... and I agree we should see some clarity very soon.
Thanks again bud, that's a great chart.
No worries at all my friend. I knew why you'd instituted the "approval" thing. I blocked a recent comment from him here too. Banned him again using a different method, lol. If he wants to go to the trouble of figuring out how I do it, he can go right ahead, he just knows what'll happen again. If that paper trader has that kind of time on his hands he's in even more trouble than I thought. Sad really.ReplyDelete
In any case, I was just more or less congratulating you for having an open mind about the whole idea about conspiracy "theories". For the majority of them there is no "theory" about it. I'd been a fan of Aaron Russo for about 3 years before his passing. He spoke the truth. In my comment I had mentioned the fact that "how many times did we have to listen to Gordon Brown spew his One World Order phrase?" I mean who in hell does that bastard think he is to be promoting that concept upon you, me, and the entire world as if it had already been ordained or something. That man is just as evil as the worst of the bunch. Anyway, congrats and keep researching. Alex Jones sounds like a quack to many, but he's not. That man is more informed about the globalists and their agenda and methods than any other top 10 "informed" human beings put together.
I looked at a lot of stuff over the weekend and he really impressed me as a genuine guy,well-connected but also seemed to have a real sparkle about him ,despite having cancer and talking about such a dark subject. I dont know if you believe in synchronicity but I wasnt looking at "conspiracy" or even market stuff at all initially but I was watching a video by a Theravada buddhist teacher in Vancouver which was quite interesting and I checked to look at his other vids and it turned out he was very interested in the Kennedy conspiracy theories and NWO stuff ! So I checked those out and others and eventually found Russo. Incidentally it was Lyndon Johnson,in his view,with help from Bush senior,Nixon and Rockafella,amongst others ! Take care my friendReplyDelete
Hope all is well with you! Here's that USDJPY chart I tried posting a few days ago. Looks like it's ready to complete a fifth of a fifth of a minor 1 (target 84.2) of P3 (target 90ish). Ya never know, that just might pan out!
Must get some sleep!
Still won't let me attach images.
Very masterful sir, thank you.ReplyDelete
This rally's killing me. Short from QE-infinity day and still in the green but it sure doesn't feel that way. Alberta, your SPX analysis saying the up trends are getting steeper since March '09... they're also getting shorter. Presumably you're expecting an upside breakout on volume and new all-time highs - what to you suggests the duration of the bull moves will increase?ReplyDelete
Greg, what happens when you try to attach an image? Are you at least able to see the little + Image button so you can at least try? I'm guessing you 'can' see it. So what happens when you try? There is a size limit and maybe that's the problem? Also, I don't see your avatar but I doubt that's the issue either since I've got the settings fixed so that 'anybody' can comment... and that includes posting an image. Anybody except known trolls that is. I have no idea what the problem is since you were able to load a chart a week ago. Let me know what happens and maybe we can work through it.ReplyDelete
Cheers Alberta, appreciate the thoughts. Perhaps you could include the McHugh image in your next blog update?ReplyDelete
I suppose it all comes back to the inflation/deflation/stagflation debate again, of which we all know the script. Suffice to say i've always been in the deflation camp, regarding QE as merely an asset swap, an accounting entry, until it gets turned into actual credit through velocity picking up in the banking system. The western world has barely begun deleveraging so its not easy to see how debt-saturated entities can be persuaded to take on more credit. But obviously just because I'm sceptical about the inflation side it doesn't make me right...
Weird. Yes, Disqus says it's having trouble with the file I tried to download. I'm having trouble with my avatar with the new disquses ... so maybe that's the issue. Thanks buddy!ReplyDelete
I hear you for sure Tom. I think everybody who knows me knows that for years I've been one of the most vocal bears out there about why the markets should be tanking into oblivion as a result of what should be happening but isn't with the global debt issue. I realize that all the money being printed is being sopped up by the purchase of bonds and it's not even reaching the "fractional reserve banking" machinery so that it can multiply 9-fold at every bank it passes through. Imagine what would happen then! Geez, the amount of inflation would just be mind boggling. But that's not happening although I think it probably 'could' if the greedy bankers wanted to start lending again. Kind of makes you wonder what in hell banks are in existence for then, doesn't it?ReplyDelete
But neither is the this incredible debt crisis seeming to have any effect whatsoever on any currency whatsoever. I mean, what in hell is going on? Is the 'shadow banking system', whatever in hell that evil thing is, messing with things we don't even know about? I mean other than the $1.5 quad<.b>rillion worth of derivatives exposure they've got themselves (and the rest of the world right along with them) exposed to? What in hell are they really doing behind the scenes? Whatever it is, let there be no mistake, at least for the moment "they" are in control. Of everything. Including the militaries and local police forces. I never dreamed I'd ever see the day when in our own once-great countries we'd see the day when cops taze people just to get their rocks off. Those kind of cops should be buried 6 feet under, but instead they're backed up by their police chiefs and the kangaroo courts to the point where murder by police goes absolutely unpunished. That happened in Germany once upon a time too. We're seeing the identical thing happen all over again... same playbook, word for word. A book written by Rothschild.
I dunno man, but I think that when the shit hits the fan the entire global house of cards could come crashing down in a matter of hours, not weeks. I doubt the stock markets would even matter then. I doubt they'd even exist anymore. I think the best we can hope for (from our own selfish perspectives) would be that somehow the bastards can keep it going for enough years that we can make enough money to buy a quarter section of farmland somewhere and hopefully learn to survive off of that. I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that the shortage of food is going to become the key global theme at some point in the years ahead. Who knows, maybe the best thing to do would be to pool our resources and buy 160 acres in Nicaragua or some place like that and grow mangoes and pineapples for a living.
I've got my fingers crossed these day. I'm not giving up just yet. I just hope the bankers can somehow keep these rotting carcasses we call 'countries' afloat for a few more years. Because I've got a plan and I need more time, lol.
All the best :-)
Good morning, my friend. A sleepless night courtesy of the latest storm blowing in, so though I'd drop by and say hello while I'm waiting for the power to go out. Fine articles and comments as always...ReplyDelete
Great comments re QE, shadow banking and credit appetite. Had lunch last week with an old Goldman friend who sells FI to financial institutions and other dealers. His take is similar to yours: 'what is' vs 'what should be.' Everyone knows its a game of musical chairs (Russian Roulette?), but as long as you can fight your way into a chair when the music stops...everything will be OK.
If there were better, fairly-valued alternatives, everyone would rush into them. There is simply too much liquidity floating around, hence the negative real yields on anything considered remotely safe. Key word "considered" because, as you point out, a fair marking to market of the $1.5 quadrillion would reveal Elvis left the building a long time ago.
I need to update it, but last April I did a simple chart comparing the reported derivatives to Tier 1 capital at six of the largest holders. For just JPM, C, BAC, GS, HSBC and MS it was 550:1. In other words, their T1 capital was 0.18% of their reported derivatives. At the time, GS was an astounding 2,480:1. [https://pebblewriter.com/the-wipeout-ratio/]
The glass half-empty version -- a 0.18% swing in the value of those contracts would wipe out T1 capital faster than you can say "oops." Of course, it's moot. It happened years ago, and much of the Fed's activities have been to gradually swap the crap underlying all those contracts -- which everyone agrees needn't be detailed in any financial reports because it would just confuse everyone and besides, it's all matched -- with assets of sterling character and unassailable quality.
Speaking of the stock market... the latest analog I've been following on and off since April regards this week as May 31/June 1 2011. If it continues to play out, next stop should be around 1290ish within about a month, with a huge rebound and a much bigger sell-off beginning in Feb-Mar 2013 (how's that for burying the lead?) A Zweig Thrust or Hilsenbrath article might undo it of course, but so far, so good.
Stay groovy, my friend.
Keep speaking the truth. It's all we can do in the face of constant propaganda from the other side.
Still have your addy, just haven't been very good about using it! Just dropped you a line. Let's catch up this weekend.
Awesome comment ! BTW AR I hear the new guy at the BOE is introducing compulsory trampoline training at lunchtime for all staff ...ReplyDelete
what about Ruppert ? I watched an impressive video of his but have had mixed feedbackReplyDelete
LMAO... that video is priceless. Bush, one of the greatest weak minds ever to infest Washington.ReplyDelete
Thanks for the email, I've responded. We'll catch up.
No Wagner jokes please, lol.ReplyDelete
Thanks CR... glad you like my little diatribes that I post every once in a while. Yeah, Carney is a whole incredible story by himself. I'm so painfully torn about what to think of him. He's a Canadian and as you know all Canadians are good. That's partly why they chose him... to promote the idea that a pristine banker coming to the rescue can only be a good thing. But the fact of the matter is that he's an ex Goldman guy. By that metric alone, and by default, that means that inside he's a satanic bastard who will just pull the banker wagon onward in history toward their ultimate goals.
On the other hand, he's an incredible story. He came out of nowhere... born way up in the Northwest Territories. Seriously man, that is eskimo country... literally. I mean Fort Smith is a little town out in the middle of a vast frozen wasteland 400 miles from the nearest tree. Both his parents were teachers. He and his brothers all ended up at Harvard, which is where he no doubt met the ruling class. The women say he's good looking but I reserve judgement on that. I can say though that he's charming and very, very respected at home and abroad. He's scary smart. I'm talking "brilliant" when it comes to damned near everything, including keeping a pristine public image and "likability" as opposed to the arrogance that pricks like Dimon exude.
So in a nutshell Carney is good looking, charming, brilliant and appears out of nowhere. Does that not fit the description of the anti-Christ? Yes it does. I don't want to believe it. I want to believe that Carney will shape up the Bank of England and drive all the serpents out. But wait... he's a Goldman guy, which is first and foremost.
But when you get to see more of him over there, you'll instantly recognize what I'm talking about. The guy is just so sharp, clean and likeable that you'll be impressed. That's what makes him potentially so dangerous. Let's keep our fingers crossed.
Murdoch? The Barnacle of Omaha? I think that whether he realizes it or not for the most part he's a creation of Wall Street for the benefit of Wall Street, used mainly for the purposes of promoting the guaranteed-to-keep-your-returns-mediocre-at-best theme of buy and hold. That way there will always be people for the bankers to unload to when the need arises. Those people represent the perfect "pot" to manipulate up and down, skimming profits from year after year after year. From that angle Murdoch has been a wonderful tool for Wall Street. Dimon is another "tool" on Wall Street but hardly as useful as Murdoch.ReplyDelete
and his wife is a left-wing eco-warrior.....weirdReplyDelete
lol no this guyReplyDelete
Hi AR and everyone.ReplyDelete
My perspective is, since all I have is a hammer, breaking if down so it's all nails.
Greg nailed it so to speak with his dollar/yen analysis. The only way for the dollar to continue its march up is for interest rates to rise.
Not sure if you remember this one AR, but awhile back I proposed it when you posted a column on currencies. Finally got around to bolting it together. What is evident is the symmetry about the 2000 low. If it continues to play out then another lower high can be expected before a cascade down
Oh! Thanks CR, I have to admit I'd never even heard of this Michael Ruppert. But I've listened to the first 3 minutes of his story and I'm definitely going to view the rest later this evening... when I can focus better, I just got in. Anyway, Alex Jones has been reporting for at least a decade now that the biggest smuggler of illegal drugs into the USA has been the CIA. Judging by the first 3 minutes of the video, Ruppert is about to corroberate Jones' claims. I've found that if I go to the trouble to verify anything Jones has said, so far I have found evidence 100% of the time that proved Jones was telling the truth. That guy really knows his stuff. I have never found any reason to doubt him, even after checking out some his claims because they just seemed too impossible to be true. But they were true indeed.ReplyDelete
It's wonderful when just by good fortune we run into people who are such useful sources of valuable information. Here's another guy who really knows his stuff:
And if you're in the mood for another chuckle, watch the incredible splash this German dude makes. Catch the Ice Dude.
Thanks again for Ruppert's vid. Much appreciated.
Ive seen that vid before when you posted it,very funny ! The Ruppert vid impressed me but I know very little about peak oil and whether or not his "doomer" view is a bit OTT.Certainly food for thought though and the other stuff about the CIA and his expose,was amazing. HCS (who does embrace conspiracy theories) thinks he is a "nutter" fwiw :-)ReplyDelete
Wow! Buster's one of the few who really gets it. What an impressive comment.ReplyDelete
Thanks again CR.
That's a great analogy and good stabs at a fundamental explanation. All I know is what the charts have been telling me. My hunch is that the symmetry will hold and we'll see a 1985 - 1987 type move in financial markets, only in reverse and we'll make a run for the bottom trendline in the inflation adjusted equities:ReplyDelete
Whether that is driven more by the numerator or the denominator I don't know
Like you said, who knows what foolishness & nonsense they will come up with next.
I see already that the weakness in the Yen is all the sudden making a lot of people who are normally on the "don't-fight-the-central-planners" train really touchy.
Some great points being made. Don't beat yourself up about the cognitive dissonance, AR - If you don't have a measure of it, you're just not thinking things through properly...ReplyDelete
Don't recall if it's been mentioned but Pretzel also has an uber-bullish script which might fit the McHugh projection and others (finally seen the attachment now, thanks - my tablet doesn't seem to like some aspects of Disqus).
Regarding Carney, the media are already eating out of his palm over here. But there hasn't been a whisper of the fact that his work in Canada coincided with one of the world's biggest housing bubbles of all time. If that had imploded on his watch, how different might his reputation be?
AR I looked up new World order in Wikipedia and your friend gordon Brown got a mention :-)ReplyDelete
Following the start of the 21st century, specifically during the late-2000s financial crisis, many politicians and pundits, such as Gordon Brown, and Henry Kissinger, used the term "new world order" in their advocacy for a comprehensive reform of the global financial system and their calls for a "New Bretton Woods", which takes into account emerging markets such as China and India.
These declarations had the unintended consequence of providing fresh
fodder for New World Order conspiracism, and culminated in talk show
host Sean Hannity stating on his Fox News Channel program Hannity that "conspiracy theorists were right". Fox News in general, and its opinion show Glenn Beck in particular, have been repeatedly criticized by progressive media watchdog groups for not only mainstreaming the New World Order conspiracy theories of the radical right but possibly agitating its lone wolves into action.
AR- some interesting pics for a fellow child of the 50's & 60'sReplyDelete
My friend? Haha... if Gordon Brown in my friend then Wagner is 'your' friend.ReplyDelete
Hahaha... it seems you've got me nailed down pretty good Al. That's a '59 Chevy. My first car was an already-old '57 Chevy and my next one was a '63 Impala Supersport. The two pictures below are identical to my first two cars, accurate down to the colors and all:ReplyDelete
I was dead convinced there would be no santa rally this december. I am now unsure, but maybe I should credit the market for successfully injecting me with "hopium".ReplyDelete
Right now I'd say it's still up in the air. It's real hard to get a read on the markets at the moment with so many conflicting signals out there and with the central banks in absolute full blown panic to not let any downside get started. Right now on the Russell for example, the 26 day MA is pointing higher with the 50 day pointing lower, 100 day pointing higher and the 200 day flat (could go either way). In the meantime, on the weekly chart of the S&P we see the 6 week MA about to shoot higher while the 12 week is solidly lower. Mixed market internals as well just mean that the market could go either way and nobody should be surprised with whatever direction that turns out to be. Wish I had an answer although just for the hell of it I'd say that as of tonight the odds of a higher close by the end of the week are probably 51%, lol.ReplyDelete
Maybe this chart will work since I logged in ... what a concept. Brilliant!
Here's the USDJPY that I wanted to post a few days ago. It appears ready to launch the (v) wave of an extended vth.
This count supposes it is in a 3rd wave up, already completing P1 and P2. This would be minor 1 of P3 up. Next target is 84.2. Merry Christmas from the BOJ!
Rats ... still won't let me.
I agree, equities are a crap shoot. Who knows what props they have left.ReplyDelete
However, here is a bearish sign -- JPM which has already had a panic wave down months ago (call it a 1 wave of some degree), and it's completed a 2nd wave, and now that's broken weeks ago. A third wave down has already started. Volume picking up selling today under the hood ... they propped the price back up by the EOD. Nice of them. I suspect the financials will lead us down again, and they already are since the SPY hasn't had a big panic wave one down yet.
Also, the wedge is broken on the SPY, and all they've accomplished with fixing Greece, and hinting at QE4 (and don't forget QE3, and Japan's limitless printing .... is ... just a retest of the bottom. It's very significant that the SPY is still below QE3 day and Europe is fixed for the 30th time day. And QE4 just got us back to the bottom. We've reached the point where Fed intervention is worth minutes not months. This bear bus may be leaving the station shortly.
I think your suspicions about the central banks fiddling with the shadow banking system sound very likely. Surely they will stop at nothing to attempt to keep this leaking boat afloat. Legal and other. Nicely theorized.ReplyDelete
Hey Greenface, thanks! But you do know you were the one who got the count all straightened out for P1 and P2 for me, and I owe you many thanks on that. I will need to buy you many drinks at DK's party in the future ... and him too for discovering that wedge a year ago. From there it's been like an Elliott Wave text book. I posted the current count on the day thread at troll central, but can't post here at the moment. Another one on the night thread showing the Ichimoku cloud acting as support.ReplyDelete
Nice chart you have here ... I never could get a count on that euro, but this puts it into perspective. Looks like we go down from here ultimately.
Hey, someone shared an interview on Japan, and how they are likely very near to a financial crisis. The kind where they might need to restructure their too much debt. They have declining exports, China boycotting their products because of the island rights fight, and an aging population. No way to pay back their debt. They WANT to devalue their currency to help exports, but it might be their only lever. Plus if they restructure their debt, on top of already promising unlimited printing if the new guy gets into office, the 15 year trend of a strong yen is kaput.
This target for a P3 is 90. But then later an intermediate 3 target would be like 105. I have changed my mind recently, and decided this is my lottery ticket rather than the AUDUSD. This is following the count so predictably it's easier to use leverage and sleep also. Must be managed by somebody, perhaps the BOJ?
But yes, I am sure this recent spike has caught many on the wrong side of that trade. I read on Forex on Friday that not since 2007 have there been this many short yen positions (leading up to the crisis). AND many hedge funds think it's the best trade now. Also, I wonder how many derivatives are about to blow up if this thing gets to 90 then 110 and beyond. Already they said implied volatility on yen future contracts is predicting bigger rises to come.
I agree on the rising yields and appreciating dollar. It's making the print-tards mighty grumpy at troll-central. In their brainwashed minds, this situation simply can't happen with the Fed printing.
P.S. I had wondered a long time why Japan's yen was so strong for so long. Maybe it's because they already have been experiencing serious deflation. NOW maybe they are entering the Greece-like phase where they are in such bad shape capital flees the country, and that's why the currency is about to be majorly weakened by massive dumping. That is the path laid out for the US I suspect. A spike in currency as debts are destroyed. Then when our house is recognized for the ponzi debt scheme it is, capital will flow out of our country in the end game, and our currency will collapse . But timing is everything as they say.ReplyDelete
Them derivatives are very scary! And It's the reason I think those banks are the prime candidates of puts.ReplyDelete
They should lead us into the abyss ... most derivatives I heard are on interest rates which should have massive moves that nobody predicted. And some should be on currencies, also looking like they are headed to massive third wave moves, wholly unexpected. I think JPM is in the beginning of a third wave down. Bought my first puts!
I think the usual Santa rally will be replaced with a get out of dodge selling spree inspired by potential tax law changes on capital gains (look at AAPL) and the Mayan 12.21.2012.ReplyDelete
Daneric posted a very interesting chart in today's update.ReplyDelete
It's the near 4 year low open interest in inverse ETF , very interesting indeed!
I think the fact that the sales of adult diapers in Japan are greater than the sales of baby diapers speaks volumes about one of their more drastic problems... demographics. Another absolutely amazing statistic about Japan is the number of centenarians (people over 1000 years old, lol). In 1963 Japan had 163 of them, which must surely been a record at that time. Today Japan has more than 50,000 centenarians (I'm pretty sure that means people over 1000 years old, lol). That is just a stunning statistic. In Canada we don't have many I don't think, although I 'did' see a woman in the mall on Saturday who I'm certain was over 1000 years old.ReplyDelete
Greg, I imagine this is one of the charts you tried to post? I have no idea what the problem is my friend, why you can't post charts here. I've seen you post them successfully here before, even on this post. By the way, maybe you should close the zipper on that outer pocket of your briefcase... some of your charts are flying out on ya. Thankfully I found this copy in the gutter and thought I'd post it for you.ReplyDelete
Very interesting, Alberta. I seem to recall a graph, maybe from Mish, which showed homeowner leverage in Canada a couple of years ago was even higher than at the height of the US boom. As you say, perhaps they'll be in a precarious position if/when a downturn occurs, but if the lending wasn't outright fraudulent that's at least something.ReplyDelete
If Carney has some independence and a mind of his own that'll be a start. Fed up of Mervyn King retrospectively berating bankers after years of fellating them. He's already fallen out with Andrew Haldane (a QE-sceptic) by the sounds of it which suggests to me he's not afraid to press CTRL-P if it comes to it. Let's see what state the UK economy is in when June comes round anyway.
Right there with ya. Interesting, my 1st car was a '57 Chev in 1965, bought it with my own money - then myself and a friend of mine put it up on blocks and replaced the automatic with a 4 speed Hurst, put in a Holly carb and bucket seats, thereafter roamed the streets for two legged wildlife that we rarely captured. But still a blast.ReplyDelete
I think we might still see a Santa rally, but not to new highs - feels like a strong undertow here - most likely folks cashing in before cap gains tax hike.ReplyDelete
I'm absolutely certain the graph you refer to was in error Tom. I'll just put it this way:ReplyDelete
How could it be possible to have a more levered condition than in the USA when in the USA an illegal immigrant who literally worked at a hamburger joint could walk into a bank and say "Hola señor Banker. Mi nombre es Pablo. I would like to take out a mortgage for about $492,000. I work flipping hamburgers and I'm certain I have good job security because I've been at the same establishment for 14 weeks now. I earn 82,000 per year in that position." To which the banker replies: "Awesome resume you have there Pablo. So let me see... you'd like to borrow $492,000 to go along with your own $6,000 in order to purchase this lovely home for $498,000. You're going to need to furnish that house too I'd think, so let's just round the loan off to $600,000. That way you and the lovely Senora can take an awesome vacation to some exotic country while you await possession date on your new digs. How does an awesome vacation in Cancun sound to you? What? You were born there? Oh, then how about some other awesome destination somewhere in South America sound? Like Italy! Does Italy sound good? Hahaha... oh never mind, it's none of my business what you do with your new money. Sign here. Have fun!"
What else can I say... that incredibly irresponsible promotion of the problem by the bankers themselves just never happened in Canada.
You're quite right in saying "If Carney has some independence and a mind of his own...". That's the key isn't it? I'm the first to admit, I'm hoping he turns out to be a hero for England. I do honestly believe the man is good inside. But I'm also very aware that the banking community is so evil, so dark, so powerful, so full of trucks tricks that it might turn out that Carney is indeed not "the Golden Boy" but "the Goldman Boy". I am doing everything in my power not to be biased as a result of the fact that he and I share the same nationality. I am rational and have my eyes wide open. But so far, from what I've seen of the man, the potential is certainly there for him to (behind closed doors) take a few of the banking community in England by the throat and read them the riot act. I don't think the people in Europe realize yet what a force to be reconned recconned recconned recconed racooned with that man is.
"Fed up of Mervyn King retrospectively berating bankers after years of fellating them."
The hypocrisy is just sickening isn't it? Talk about being two faced. Fellating two at a time no doubt.
Got my fingers crossed for all of you over there. And for us as well.
LMAO. Ok, I've decided that you and I have to meet some day. I also bought my '57 Chevy with my own money. I remember like it was yesterday. I took an older and experienced friend with me for his final approval of my major purchase. His name was Don Chapman. He opened the hood and said, "You reallize this car has had a fire under the hood don't ya?" To which I replied, "No I didn't know that. How do you know?". Don took his index finger and wiped the underside of the hood, stuck his black finger in my face and said "Does that answer your question?". I retorted, "I don't really care, the car runs, I love it and they want $200 for it.". Don replied, "Take it!". So I did, lol.ReplyDelete
Oh man, your story reminds me of a guy named Skip Santa. His real first name was Claus if you can believe that, so obviously he learned very early in life that he needed a "nick". So "Skip" it was... and it stuck. Anyway, Skip had a '55 Chevy that just looked like hell on the outside. Inside... a whole different story. 327, 4 speed, 4 bbl carb, Hurst, slicks. And every Friday and Saturday night we'd all park in the parking lots along Mayor Magrath drive in Lethbridge to watch the drags begin. It was just outstanding... a drag race at every change of the lights... for hours on end. Anyway, every once in a while we'd get what we all came for... to see Skip line up at the 'starting line' and one of those shiny new '67 or '68 Camaros with a 327, or better yet a 396 would pull up beside him... totally game to show off the new burgundy ride. We seldom saw who won those races because we couldn't see through the smoke.
Haha, the two legged wildlife definitely made the final decisions. They still do unfortunately, lol.
Just a quick and perhaps telling comment on the appointment of Mark Carney to the Bank of England. Of the 33 million people in this country, I doubt that a single one of them is "glad to see him go". Collectively we're quite miffed by it in fact. "Thoroughly pissed off that England snatched him away from us" might be a more honest sentiment. If there are citizens of any other country who would have the same feeling if 'their' central banker was snatched away, I don't know who they would be.ReplyDelete
I realize that maybe Carney will become a different animal over there and begin to show very different colours. But from what I've seen of the man so far, I have no reason to suspect that. Yes, he is an ex-Goldmanite and by default that makes him evil to the core. But he was also an ex-Golmanite while running things in Canada and he did a superb job here. What else can I say? Anything is possible I guess. We'll probably find out within his first month over there which path he's going to take.
The subprime component is nothing compared to USA but it seems like a decent correction is possible for Canada. I guess it would also depend on China slowing or not. As long as the commodity boom is on Canada would probably do fine.
Even more extended is Australias housing prices. Steve Keen has a great blog with the stats if you would like to see.
Same game played by central bankers different countries. The end result will be the same. But timing is different of course. In the end millions of Canadians and Australians are about to get hurt.
One aspect that I find to be most bothersome is that even though Canadians are aware of how bizarre the American banks became in their incredibly irresponsible lending practices a decade ago, and feeling quite proud of how our banks didn'tbehave nearly as irresponsibly, they are blissfully unaware of how vulnerable Canada still is to the global shitstorm that's coming. In other words, because Canada has done very well over the past 20 years the populace are of the opinion that that record of success is going to continue into the future no matter what. Sadly they're wrong.ReplyDelete
The fact is that no matter how we slice it, Canada is still going to do a hell of a lot better than most other countries. But an even sadder fact is that when the shitstorm hits Canadians are going to get covered in shit just like everybody else on the planet. Just a little less of it, that's all. They're totally unaware of that fact. I have a brother who absolutely refuses to believe any of my warnings. He owns somewhere between 12 and 20 homes in one of the most desirable sectors of any city... near the university. And since they're near the university he's of the opinion that they can only go up in value... never down. I dare say the day would come when he would get completely wiped out if it weren't for the fact that although apparently blind to the macro scene, he's a very prudent and careful investor. Not one of those homes has any mortgage. So obviously he's going to survive. However, he is going to take a shellacking that he's definitely not counting on.
Vancouver is another story. A truly world class beautiful city, it has become almost entirely dependent upon Asia. It is Asian investors who are 100% responsible for driving the price of real estate in Vancouver through the stratosphere. Chinese have fallen in love with that city because with huge mountains in the background and an ocean in the foreground, it reminds them of Hong Kong. But as long as that love affair continues, prices could remain at these incredibly stupid and lofty levels... $850k for an average little 3 bedroom bungalow. Who in hell can afford that? Wealthy Asians and those who bought their Vancouver homes when they were priced at $300k... and nobody else. In that regard, Vancouver might as well be located in Australia, because it's vulnerable to the same force... China's future, whatever path that may take.
There's no doubt about it, Canadians are going to get hurt in the end. It's just that the degree of pain they're going to have to endure won't be nearly as high as folks in other countries will. I hear people all over the world seemingly gloating over the fact that smug Canadians are "gonna get their day", as if they almost 'want' to see Canadians fall down to their level... as if Canadians deserve to get burned to a crisp. But unfortunately for those types of folks, it just ain't gonna happen... not to the extent they're hoping for.
I think it was DK and/or AR who first were tracking the giant wedge over at Trollerics. I happened to just follow up on it. But you have been riding this latest wave up masterfully so great work.
Anyway it looks like a triangle now and the thrust up out of will take it past the highs earlier this year. We should get a nice pullback after that push.
I saw a lot of stories over the weekend about the commitment of traders short yen positions at a 5 year high. I know I read a lot of forex "experts" and most if not all still refer to it as the "widowmaker" and expect it to falter as it always has in the past.
That's the funny thing about the world we live in nowadays. Something that is supposed to happen a certain way because it always has happened that certain way, will always happen that way up until the day that it doesn't.
hey AR ! Well, a somewhat frustrating few days this trading week. I suppose - based on previous experiences, tomorrow could easily end very badly for those on the short side.ReplyDelete
Its all truly incredible, considering the looming 500/600bn change in taxes/spending.
I thought things might go a bit more normal for a few months, but...we're borderline on the edge of a breakout..and with Christmas soon..its looking like the bull maniacs might take charge again.
Hope things are good there...soon..2013...and I'm sure next year will be even more twisted and bizarre than this one was.
My closing chart of the night...USD, monthly..which is still holding within the channel..and possibly starting a new multi-week..or even multi-month rally.
If this months candle goes back to green, then it will at least help to keep the lid on the incessent little micro-rallies we keep seeing in the indexes.
Sorry for the delay in responding PD... I usually get very busy right after the market closes. Yes sir, right now the market is just about as confusing as I've ever seen it. I look at a 15 min. chart of the Russell for example and it reminds me of a light bulb that's about to go out... flickering on and off. It doesn't know what the hell is going on... just a sideways buzzzzzzzzz. Of course I just chalk that up to JPMs influence since those bastids pretty much use that market as toy... a cash generator to help ensure they make their $25 mil. per day.ReplyDelete
So I pan out to see what kind of guidance we get from the 30 min, hourly, 120 min. charts and they're not much better.except that on the 2 hr. chart it looks like a launchpad is being built. The momentum indicators are heading back toward neutral territory so they would support the argument for a big fat bounce. On the other hand the 12 day MA is pointing higher, the 26 day is flipping upward, the 50 day is pointing lower but would be willing to flip upward with one little blast here. In the meantime the 200 day MA is agnostic, fully prepared to go Christian or atheist... whatever Goldman wants. It wouldn't take much upside over the next two weeks to turn that 200 back up. So I really back it up and check out the situation from 30,000 feet with a weekly chart and damn... it's not much help either because on that chart the 6 week MA just flipped to the upside, the 12 week is pointing solidly lower but the 26 week (half year, lol) MA is pointing higher. On the weekly chart the momentum indicators are basically suggesting that "well, we could run higher for about a half a year before we even start to get overbought, so go long you fool".
So basically I'd say that as long as the S&P is range-bound between 1400 and 1425 it's mug's game. Just stay out of it until it makes a decision. Obviously the mafia wants a Christmas rally. Well, they want a rally every single day of the year, but especially when fatso from up north is about to show up with all his gifts and promises that everything in the world is just hunky dory. The fact that Europe is totally in flames is apparently not even an issue. So since nothing that's happening in the world of economics has anything to do whatsoever with the stock markets and Goldman Sacks has everything to do with the stock markets, I'm guessing we see an explosion higher.
hello, and thanks for the reply.ReplyDelete
I do like the waves, although I am completely novice to it. Never read an EW book...never will. I don't think I need to.
What I've seen time and again, an apparent get wrecked by a random news story, or some dumb politician appearing on clown networks...and then market goes blast off, or snaps lower.
Yes, on the BIGGER scale..as in multi-years, there are indeed cycles..huge inexorable ones...all driven..largely by demographics.
Japan for instance...its over. Doesn't matter what they do... no babies....no Japan.
Anyway, Friday market still open..maybe we get a red close ;)
*most amusing though remains AAPL, although just on Thursday, the media cheer leaders on CNBC were again touting $1100. 'Insane maniacs' doesn't begin to describe them.
Yes, right at the very first decline off the top for AAPL, the 'maniacs' touted it as being at a "generational low". Can you believe that? From there it immediately fell 27% in a matter days.ReplyDelete
About Japan... it's an incredible fact that the sales of adult diapers there is larger than the sale of baby diapers. Stunning.
I have to say I have my doubts about the validity of supercycle or grand supercycle wave counts in the stock market. I think the economic, cultural, logistical, metaphysical, etc explosions of the past 40 or 50 years or so have precluded this era from being in the same category as what was going on before.ReplyDelete
That's not to say that it isn't possible to count waves over those long time periods. I think prior to 1980 it probably was possible.
I think the reason why so many people have so much trouble with wave theory in practice is because it simply doesn't always apply. Sometimes there just aren't valid waves to count. Like the daily chart between June to September. Or from Mar '09 to Sept for that matter. There were lots of periods in between when waves were present and could be counted. They come and go unfortunately.
The summer of 2011 was a painful lesson. Zoomed out it looked like a 5 wave decline, but with waves you have to see the trees to get a good picture of the forest. Turns out there was no forest there. First of all we topped on 3 waves in the spring which isn't right. Then the first wave down was only three legs into June which is wrong as can be. The next leg down was another 3 legged move into the depths of August. It was followed by pure chaos even though we made a low in October. I know it's easy to second guess and play the monday morning quarterback, but I posted charts on public forums counting that mess as an impulse too and I regret it to this day.
Since then I've developed my own nomenclature for moves like that. It's called a W - A - C wave stands for What - A - Clusterf--k
Roger that. I think the key is to find something that IS following elliott waves and not some manipulated randam mess. And that's why I only trade the USDJPY right now. And manybe for the next year. It seems to be in that minor 1 of P3. 84.2 coming up, then a pull back and then 90, then pull back, then 110, ...ReplyDelete
I saw that mentioned for the stock values also in March 2009. When it's more likely 2000 and 2007 were generational highs.ReplyDelete
That's one of them, but not my favorite one where the channel lines are perfectly text book.ReplyDelete
Thanks for finding that flying around. You are magical.
Hey, I have a budy who did some USDJPY research for me, and theat led to some more research on my end, and I found a magic bullet. Current Account. That's a key thinkn in currency exchange rates, and Japans surplus for decades was what kept it's currency strong. Always wondered why it was strong for somany years with it's low interest rates. But anyway, that appears to be ending soon. Because of their aging populations, boycotting China, rising oil imports due to nuclear shuttering of plants. Anyway, without a current account surplus, their 200% debt to GDP ratio will matter. Japan could become the next Greece. And the world economy could not absorb that shock wave. They'd need help financing the debt then, and interest rates would go up, and THE YEN WOULD PLUMMET. It is already no longer acting like a safe haven currency like it used to (see chart of VXX to Yen).
So there you have it. The reason the decades long wedge broke out in March, and why it should continue the new paradigm, and make those who short the yen a fortune. Following the unfolding EW waves.
Thanks .... yes, I've been finding that interesting also ... everyone assumes Japan's efforts to intervene will fail like they always have. But clearly something is afoot with the yen weakening 6% in 6 weeks for the 2nd time in a year. An investment teacher of mine said, "consensus opinion is always deadly wrong." That 5-year high of shorts puts us back to 2007 crisis. Interesting because I think Japan is about to have a crisis. Check out this article! It correlates the entire move before (strengthening yen) to the current account surplus. Now it is headed toward a negative surplus. Not there yet, but clearly trending that way. Once that happens ... their 200% debt to gdp ratio suddenly matters. They have to get foreignors to fund it, now they can fund it internally. When that happens, the yen crumbles in a heap. Which is good for those who short the yen following the waves! A Goldman Sachs guy thinks the short yen is the most interesting macro economic trade out there right now. I agree. What else is at the bottom of a massive potential move? And already starting the move.ReplyDelete
You sir are a funny man, and we simply have to get together in a year or two for that party in Australia, or Canada. Anyway, I plan to frequent your virtual pub more frequently as this month I aim to focus on tranquility. Troll-central I can get while at work, and this is blocked, but I gots ta quit that energy drain. Cheers!ReplyDelete
Yep, at troll-central, the print-tards seem extra grumpy and full of long-winded essays and theorie about why they are right and printing will boost risk assets for a 3rd time, meanwhile the precious metals have gone down since the QE3 announcement. Run up before the announcement is all, they say. Equities? Down since QE3 ... AAPL? just a healthy correction, shaking out weak hands. They are really grasping at straws. Broken wedge? They don't really talk about that. Denial is a tricky beast.ReplyDelete
You know you're welcome here at all times brother.ReplyDelete
12-12-12 is the final FOMC(?)/FED meeting date for this year, it is also the final "triplicate" this century (day/month/year being the same number, however artificial the date system is). In case nobody noticed, they always meet on numerological dates and full moons.ReplyDelete
This would be a potential date to disappoint for further QE, shock the political class into doing wall street's bidding re: the fiscal cliff, make people forget that Santa has to fly through 2,500,000 drones over american skies... anything I'm missing?
It's just a significant date that could spark the USD rally that some believe is supposed to happen, subsequently it would cause a massive AUD/JPY/CAD/EUR/GBP unwind.
They never learn. However looking around me lots of people still using iphones.ipads etc I dont trade AAPL or any other single stock but I think the generational buy may be much lower. As far as I can tell they make good products and everyone is buying.
Waiting for Japan to come online (licking my chops)... I know you are too! Keeping an eye on Japanese bonds.
They are getting desperate.
Thanks buddy, the next round is on me!ReplyDelete
Here's to tranquility! clink!
One more thrust to finish off minor 1 of P3 up. Target 84.2+
Here's the chart ... check out the support track for (iv) ... the old resistance track of the channel for the i,ii,iii,iv before the extended fifth.
Please chart work ... I love this chart.
YAY! It worked!
weekly chart ... showing a resistance line it got above.ReplyDelete
And the bigger picture of the minor 1 target above P1 of 84.14.
What else could they produce other than disappointment?ReplyDelete
QE3 hasn't done a thing.
QE4 rumors haven't goosed the markets more than an hour.
It's becomming more clear to more people each day that the central banks have got nothing to help what's ailing us (too much debt).
And shortly after that date, we get a 12/21/2012 ... they Mayan date, and both are "elevens" -- the sum of their digits are 11, which is supposedly rare and correlated with big things in markets. Chosen by banksters because of the rarety.
Excellent monthly dollar chart ... it shows the tight support quite clearly -- 4 months tight on one of your lines, and nice tracks upward. IT could easilly get to 90 with some collapsing in the Euro and the JPY. Both which look likely. Or the JPY's count and fundamentals support that. I have no idea what the count is on the Euro, but further panic seems more likely than bullishness over there.ReplyDelete
maybe you can forward this interview with Garth Turner to your brother. hers his blog.
Greg, are you saying that the "risk-off" Yen trade will come crashing down followed by a carry-call unwind from hell featuring, well, everything apart from the USD, swiss franc and gold? It's a hell of a call if so, will be watching intently...ReplyDelete
I do think the days of the Yen being a safe haven currency are over, and once that trade catches fire, it could be an explosive mean reversion. I mean for 30 years or so the yen has strengthened relative to the dollar. All based on positive account balances. And inflation differences probably. But it's not an interest rate differential, and inflation has been faairly tame in the US. In 1973, the yen was pegged at 360. Now it is at 82.35. And that article I posted below states the idea that the market has not worried about their 200% debt to GDP ratio ONLY because they have been able to finance that debt internally with savings and surplus exports. But that is about to end when their imports exceed exports in the near future, courtesy of an aging population, china boycots, oil imports to replace nuclear power plants that have been shuttered. Now they plan to print like mad to buy their own debt. Why on earth should the Yen be a safe haven currency? You could say the same about the dollar, but Japan has a greater debt ratio, and it hasn't been priced in at all. And many global debts have been denominated in dollars, so as those get destroyed, it will prop up the dollar during that time. It's all a timing thing. The dollar could spike and then crash later. Japan could be the next worry to replace Greece. Only there's no bailing out the 3rd largest economy.ReplyDelete
The carry-trade unwind, I'm not sure how that would play out. I haven't studied that yet. Any thoughts on that topic? But a yen spike after 28 years would be black swanish, yes.
Hey Greggor. I think the US currency is where the Yen was 20 years ago. The FED is currently fighting like mad to keep that deflation genie inside the bottle. IF that genie escapes and we end up taking the deflationary route, the USD will begin to rise and probably won't stop rising for years. This is exactly what has been going on with the Yen for the past 20 years and that's why it has been appreciating almost without taking a breather. Japan has been fighting the deflation monster for 20 years because they reached debt saturation 20 years ago... more or less. That's a simplistic statement but the point is that they got into borrowing trouble long before we did.ReplyDelete
So let's say the BOJ, even though they're doing everything in their power to lower the yen (with no success whatsoever), finally lose that battle and their debt starts to collapse. Rates for JGBs will start to rise sharply and demand for Yen will just get that much stronger. For about the past 4 years now I've held the view that if the deflation monster is unleashed, then the USD, the Yen and gold would all probably hold up very well. When the currency carry trade starts to unwind, the Aussie:Yen cross will tank sharply. And of course that currency pair is a measure of "risk on" (inflationary forces) or "risk off" (deflationary forces). So when that pair starts to tank, I'd expect nearly all of the "giving" to be done by the Aussie dollar. IOW, I expect the Aussie dollar will crash very hard and the Yen will barely budge if not just continue to rise. I could be entire wrong of course, but that's the way I see it working out.
BUT... you noticed I said if the deflationary forces take hold. I've become so damned furious with the central banks of the world, particularly the FED for their seemingly endless month after month after month bullshit schemes to keep things afloat, things that just keep on seeming to work for them... one god damned rabbit out of their asses after the other... that I'm damned near on the verge of saying "ok, fk it... we're going ultra inflationary for the next 5 years and only after that will the deflation issue will have to be dealt with. I'm totally convinced that the world will go into a major, ugly deflationary phase. But I'm no longer convinced that we have any clue about when the deflation party might kick off. If some insider told me "no worries, the deflation doesn't start until about 2017", I would have absolutely no reason to doubt him. In my humble opinion, we could absolutely go either way over the next 5-6 years.
The one key aspect that we don't "know" is the timing of it all. And we behave as if we do know the timing of it all. We don't.ReplyDelete
I don't know how many people (a) could have saved how much money (b) for how much time (c) by heeding these three plainly, incisively phrased sentences, but I'm pretty sure the lower bounds are:
(a) a lot
(b) a lot
(c) a lot.
"The time element as an independent device, however, continues to be baffling when attempts are made to apply any known rule of sequence to trend duration."
- RN Elliott, The Basis of the Wave Principle, Oct 1940
Well hello there Zimmer :-) Haven't seen you for a while. Well I 'have' seen you haunting the blogs of some of our good friends but you haven't graced these halls for a while. It's good to hear your voice.ReplyDelete
I take it you're approving of those final 3 sentences I wrote. You can count me<.u> in as one of those people who would have saved a lot of money and equally (if not more) important "time" by heeding those sentences. Do you have any idea how long it took me to break through that barrier and come to the realization that no matter how sharp I might have perceived myself to be, I simply had no right to think I knew "when" a great deflationary event would happen on the macro scale.
Japan has been fighting deflation for two decades and yet 'their' world hasn't yet come completely unglued. It's going to... but perhaps it's an excruciatingly slow process and they might just be in the early stages of it. This is the main reason I don't see a Yen collapse of any significance any time soon. I 'do' see one for the Australian dollar though but I don't know "when" because again... I have no right to think I know when the currency carry trade will finally exhibit signs that risk is definitely off for the foreseeable future (the deflationary event). For all we know the central banks will just continue to pull green rabbits out of their asses for 5 more years and kick off a major league inflationary event, the likes of which the world has probably never seen before. If that's what is in store then admittedly I'd love the opportunity to go for a ride on the S&P to 2000. My mind is open to the possibility that that could indeed happen. A year ago it wasn't.
Thanks for posting the corroborating quote from Mr. Elliott. I've never read that one before... or if I 'did' come across it in one of Prechter's books, I either pooh-poohed it or just ignored it out of an overgrown ego or something. No truer words.
I hope you're doing well bro.
Thanks AR. Wish I had more time of late to catch up on reading and TA. Great material here, as usual, from the usual loveable derelicts. Good new blood too. All a testament to the host!ReplyDelete
As exuberance abounds, here's my fib-fanly bear chart of the day:
(what can I say, a permabear can't change his...stripes?)
> completely unglued. It's going to... but perhaps it's an excruciatingly slow processReplyDelete
You guys in the media have a very tough time. You're looking for events. You're trying to cover the news minute by minute. This is cancer. This isn't a sudden crisis that's going to erupt out of the ground like some monster trying to eat us. This is a slow, wasting process, and if we don't understand that that is the nature of deflation and that it is undermining the very foundations of our communities...then we're not going to act.
Christopher Whalen, 10/18/10
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