In the 60 min. chart for SPY we see a new and logical target for the current down-leg. Also, for the first time in months equities are putting in a new lower high in support of new lower highs in the momentum indicators. In every previous instance on this chart (certainly of 'this' degree) where the momentum indicators had put in a new lower high, they were accompanied by a new higher high in equities. In other words, in previous cases equities had just chugged ever higher in defiance of the slowing momentum and negative divergences. That is no longer the case!
 |
| SPY - 60 minute - Click here for a live and updating version. [EDIT: a lot of time has passed since this chart was first presented. Here's how it looks as of Sept. 17th, 2012.] |
The production of negative divergences in a powerful up-leg is typical of course. BUT when the momentum indicators and price both put in a lower high at the same time... the entire dynamic has changed. The market is headed lower. The target identified by Chairman also lines up pretty well with some of the wave counts out there. Mind you, there's nothing saying that the gap at SPY 133 has to arrest the decline... and perhaps it won't since at that level it won't have even retraced the leg up from the November lows by as much as 38.2% (a most common fib level). For all we know we're about to see the market get going in a serious wave 3 downward. That's not a prediction because I just don't know what will happen once price gets down into that gap area. All we know is that all indications are suggesting that equities are heading lower and that the gap at SPY 133 is most likely a minimum target.
Here's one other chart of SPY that I had posted exactly one month ago in the I Dreamed About A Little Bear post. It was regarding the air pockets beneath the market and they too will almost assuredly come into play in the coming weeks as well:
 |
| SPY - Daily - Click here for a live and updating version. |
Here's a great chart (below) and a great accompanying article courtesy of Chris Ebert of Zentrader.ca. I'm happy to report that I know one of the principles of Zentrader, Jeff Pierce, from my more active days on Seeking Alpha. We never did have a 'great deal' of interaction but he's a great guy and a 'team player' type of contributor. I particularly like the types of things Jeff looks at and the angles of attack he uses in the analysis game. They're very refreshing compared to the 'standard' that most of us seem to be locked into. This is a very interesting study, one which I admit I am not familiar with. Great information contained in Chris' article entitled The Death Of the Bull Is Near.
 |
| Long Call/Married Put Index (LCMPI)- Courtesy of Christopher Ebert at Zentrader.ca. That site is located in the blog roll over there on the right side bar. Be sure to watch for updates as that site is pretty active. |
===============
Let's not forget the weekly chart (below) from the piece called "Exponential Decay". Click the links below it to see a handful of foreign markets as they line up with the S&P. So far, the analysis about the exponential decay is not at all out of line. That could change with a rally of course, but so far so good...
 |
| In this chart, we 'respect' the July 1 lows that occurred in 2009 and 2010. If that occurs again in 2012, the S&P would be on the white 'clone' line at 1140. Click here for a live and updating chart showing some foreign markets. And here to see those foreign markets in candlestick form instead. |
===========
One last note.... Chairman, congratulations on your new baby girl. She's a knock-out beauty that one!
..
SLV got me thinking about gaps this weekend too; although, if we do manage to power through SPY 133, I've got some greater ambitions:
ReplyDeletehttp://rationalinsolvency.com/2012/05/spy051312gaps.png
The "Chairman" gap area lacks virtually every bit of volume. See volume profile chart. Just 2 bucks lower and volume is picking up. So you're probably right to warn this gap doesn't have to stop the decline, all-things-considered. Support around the 61.8% fib level has solid volume to back it up. Yes, that's a 10 buck drop!TX
ReplyDeleteGood evening AR!
ReplyDeletewell, despite the doomy mood out there with endless Greek-exit stories/chatter, futures are only sp'-5. Sure we could still open a lot lower, but it ain't looking so great for those bears right now.
All we need is one stupid rumour, or news report via one of the clown channels, and this market will be in the upper 1360s by tomorrow closing. That would set up a final wave'2 peak by lunch time Tuesday in the 1370s. I don't expect +1380 this week..or even for some months to come.
So long as I keep staring at the monthly chart...I'm bearish, lol
--
Good wishes for the week ahead.
Hey AR, I appreciate the comments, thoughts and recognition.. and thanx too bro for your mentioning of baby Georgina.. she's a 'little beauty' as we say down under! lol. Don't sweat the Disqus malfunction dude.. I never for one second thought it had anything to do with you.. I'm seeing a lot of comments from others on another blog that are having their comments 'not make it' onto the board.. and are seriously pissed about it... Anyway bro thanks for whitelist clearance to sort it.
ReplyDeleteThe comment AR is referring to about the SPY gap I mentioned was in the previous board discussion post. Fwiw, here again is what I wrote: "SPY gap at 132.68 (SP500 1325.54) market may target to fill next week. T
Caldaro has support down at the 1313 and 1303 pivots. I now think 14-15
is to early for a low.. out to 18 or 21-22 is more likely. All depends
on what happens early in the week!"
then followed up with this comment in the thread: "Some more SPX talk, it wasn't 'till I looked at an intra-day chart I
spotted another gap in the SPY lower down at 131.32 (SPX 1312.41), which
the market may also target to fill. So, two open gaps at SPX 1325.54
& 1312.41 and based on his latest OEW count, Tony Caldaro has Fib
relationships giving targets in the range of SPX 1313 & 1327".
I don't think the higher gap (SPY 133) can or will stop the selling pressure if there's a broad market sell off this week as TX points out below. When I spotted the lower gap on intra-day I immediately thought based on wave structure and fib relationships, SPX 1313 is the more probable target for the low. It will be very interesting to see how things panned out after the event! Good luck everyone for the coming trading week! Chairman.
Daily MACD bullish cross on USDJPY, fwiw...
ReplyDeleteUSDJPY: Seems like 80.0 is holding as support so far. That would be a tidy 50% retrace from the 76 to 84 move.
ReplyDeleteRoger....I am not selling it to ya, lol, but that weekly channel, the 61.8 not far below, I had some harmoics fire on the 8 hour chart late last week (pretty big chart for that) and now we gots some indicator confirmation. Anyway, just throwing that out if anybody is monkeying with it...
ReplyDeleteThanks for that ... Excellent eye ... my chart has it just about to cross, first time in nearly 2 months.
ReplyDeleteThat there is a good signal, could be worth a truckload of pips.
I feel better about my 2nd nibble.
EXACTLY... and great point TX.
ReplyDeleteChairman, I believe your comment above is the one which got spammed on ya once you tried to edit it. Please feel free to try to edit it again. And if Disqus screws up and insists yet again that your comment needs approval, I'll just slap the bitch Disqus upside the head one more time and "approve" your comment immediately. Disqus is supposed to learn as it goes and blog owners have the responsibility to 'cooperate' in this matter. I do. Pretzel does. But unfortunately some others don't... and it's those irresponsible blog owners who are screwing it up for everybody. But you're whitelisted here, and I'm here most of the time so there should be very little delay if one of your comments gets spammed again. Please don't fear it. Feel free to edit your own comments as much as you like... let's beat this Disqus bitch.
ReplyDelete133 remains a key level of previous support, especially with the lack of volume underneath.
ReplyDelete..
The risk-on currency AUD/USD is off over 800 pips from 1.084 to near parity from early March.
ReplyDeleteCall that 8%.
The SP is down like 2% since then.
Something is not right here. Something smells fishy.
There were times when they would move in tandem, and the stock market would move actually move more.
If they remain related, one of these could be a leading indicator (currency?).
On the other hand, currency moves haven's seemed very impulsive yet.
I think the stock market is smoke and mirrors, and the dollar may be about to spike. Holding support anyway.
I'm not surprised Greggor. As I've mentioned previously, it's the Aussie:Yen that has the tightest correlation with equities. Generally speaking the Aussie:USD is also correlated as you're obviously aware but the relationship has no real basis to be "tight" like the Aussie:Yen does. That's why I don't even refer to the Aussie:USD for guidance about where equities might be headed.
ReplyDeleteThanks buddy, I've seen your studies on that topic, thanks for the reminder, I need to start watching that pair on a regular basis (like a hawk).
ReplyDeleteOoops ... it WAS at the top of some charts up there at 80. Shoulda been more patient. 78.8 now.
ReplyDeleteLooked like it had room for a pullback, but the daily MACD is still about to cross.
NZDJPY hit he bounce area and 61.8 fib under version B of scenario 2 that I posted this weekend, if any buddly cares
ReplyDeleteSPY broke up through the 30 minute OR.
ReplyDeleteGLD is now negative for the year... the fund is now vulnerable to tax-loss selling.
ReplyDeleteJim Rogers: Gold to Have First Down Year in Over a Decade http://www.moneynews.com/Markets/Rogers-Gold-year-metal/2012/04/16/id/435936
l
Gold Coin Sales Down 81% YoY http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold-coins-us-mint-sales-050120121
optimism is waning and liquidity is drying up in stocks and metals.
significant drop in bullish investor sentiment http://disciplinedinvesting.blogspot.com/2012/05/significant-drop-in-investor-bullish.html
"it is likely that selling will resume" http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/05/13/investor-sentiment-its-too-early-to-btfd/
while stocks (SPY) haven't lost all their gains for the year, they are losing volume (OBV) even faster than they're losing price.
it would seem that no-yield gold is leading dividend-bearing stocks down. and SPY's OBV is leading the index's price action down.
when liquidity and optimism dry up, people realize they don't need stocks... they need dollars. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFZP8zQ5kzk
This shows currency correlation across pairs and has code if you want to add the table to your blog.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forexabode.com/trading-tools/currency-correlation/aud-jpy
A deflationary view that fits with your June Swoon: http://www.robertsinn.com/2012/05/14/a-petrifying-chart-comparison/
ReplyDeleteToday CRX closed below its November and December 2011 lows. That is bad for the bulls this year. Would need to do some jacked up final correction leg thingy to get one more ramp. More likely scenario is we continue to track the 2011 sell and are putting in a similar, or possibly stronger, leg down. Question is just where are we in that structure so that we know where the bounces are.
ReplyDeleteThanks SJ. When I get some time tomorrow I'll read that a little closer to see what it all means. Right off the top I'm not following it. Where would you suggest would be a good place to embed it since there's a new post every few days?
ReplyDeleteTechnical Damage
ReplyDeleteI tried to embed it on a private blog (as a gadget in the far right column, but it was too big for our page). That is where I would try it. Do add a gadget and then add html code gadget on your far right column and see if it works for you (at the bottom or whatever)...otherwise, I dunno, but looked sloppy and too big when I tried today....
ReplyDeleteTaking a stab at this but the recent price action from 5/7 - 5/14 (today), looks kinda similar to 7/28-8/2.
ReplyDeleteOk thanks... I'll give it a whirl late tonight or tomorrow when I have more time. I'm not all that familiar with 'embedding' yet but will see what I can destroy when I can focus on it a bit more, lol.
ReplyDeleteCRX:SPX ratio on the monthly scale. From the CRX article first published a year ago. Here's a more recent update that I posted on 'this' blog on January 2nd.
ReplyDeleteShe really is sending a deflationary message but it's just getting warmed up. 13 years worth of inflation to unwind.
80/10 SMA looking to crossover on the SP500 daily.
ReplyDeleteGonna do a little wild speculation here. Let's say once again that the GDOW is a relatively accurate map of social mood, and the SP500 is distorted due to QE/POMO/upwardly-biased HFTs/liquidity injections and so forth. The moves on the two indexes roughly correspond, but the larger degree count is out of whack.
ReplyDeleteOn the GDOW it looks like we are working Minor 1 of Intermediate 3 of P3 down. Let's just throw lines on the chart and show a good Minor 2 bounce at some point. (Wave 2s in bear markets are often pretty strong as we all know.) I'm not forecasting timing, just roughing out a scenario here:
http://i.imgur.com/805wj.jpg
Now let's say that is the point (the point of the Minor 2 bottom on the GDOW) when more QE is announced. From their corresponding lows, the US indexes take off like a rocket in what is actually, social mood-wise, Minor 2, but the US indexes set new highs in the corresponding moves due to HFT/POMO/liquidity injection/etc. The big picture becomes even more distorted for those using the US indexes as a metric.
http://i.imgur.com/lTZ3D.jpg
When that peak is reached, few will expect what's coming, because all the US index counts will be busted. But it could actually be the peak of Minor 2 and the start of a shocking collapse -- Minor 3 of Intermediate 3 of P3 down. That Minor 2 peak could well be the end of confidence in QE and POMO and printing and liquidity, and that's all that's left.
Its starting to look like the SPX 1325.5 (SPY 132.7) gap should be coming into play soon if not tomorrow, with potential to mark a bottom to wave C of 4. There is also a cluster of wave relationships just below the gap to end this correction. SPX 1322 is right in the guts of last year's topping area and looks like major support here could come into play.
ReplyDeleteThis from Tony Caldaro's Monday update blog post "All four major indices are now in line to end this one month correction.
We did some calculations earlier today and uncovered a cluster of wave
relationships at the SPX 1321/1322 level: 38.2% retracement of Major
3, Int. C = 1.50 Int. A, and Minor C = 0.618 Minor A. Another gap down
opening could near this level tomorrow".
Excellent sleuthing Papa_Boule ... and that would solve the riddle why not much looks very impulsive yet. Even currencies.
ReplyDeleteAnd there is the feeling that enough investors are still jockeying for the boost that a QE3 would provide ... why else would European bond yields not be spiking? Everyone seems to assume the greater fool will show up again (central banks). And the US market count is seriously out of whack with social mood, so I'm very glad you've shared that observation ... to keep an eye on GDOW instead.
When the last and only "safe" investment falls ... the panic and confusion will skyrocket and we'll be close to a moment of mass recognition. Social investment mood will be depressed ... the thinking has been "there's a bull market somewhere" for so long it's assumed a given. And I know gold is a hard one to predict, so I'm not making bets on it, but if it's falling, that's going to be a major deflation sign as AR has pointed out. It could go up with the failure of currencies, or first we could have major asset crashes like the last depression and then go up.
ReplyDeleteFunny you should bring that up Papa. The other day I started taking another look at Bulltart's weekly 10/80 situation. Remember when we were following that one with so much interest? If you're interested that entire investigation was covered here as it unfolded.
ReplyDeleteBut as it turns out, right now the 10 week moving average has also turned lower. The last time it did that was in May '11. And as advertised, back then it did indeed sound the alarm for much bigger declines to come. I don't see any reason why it shouldn't be taken as a very serious bearish sign this time as well. I'd have to say that based on that metric along, the 10 week rolling lower, that the odds for a higher high in the months ahead are probably very slim.
Great contribution Papa. That's just one more in the long list of reasons we like having you around. I agree with Greg wholeheartedly. There's not one single thing wrong with your theory nor your 'potential' paths for the markets either. I could absolutely buy into the entire picture you've outlined. If it doesn't pan out quite like you've drawn up... so what... it is certainly food for thought and will help keep us on our toes no matter what lies ahead. Thanks for offering that really good possible scenario.
ReplyDeleteVIX breakout in Log scale:
ReplyDeletehttp://dl.dropbox.com/u/59021800/May/VIX%202012-05-15-TOS_CHARTS.png
Chris Vermeulen http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/gold-and-gold-miners-closing-in-on-a-major-bottom-123151
ReplyDeleteThanks AR and Greg. If this kind of thing actually plays out, the correction from intervention-inflated heights back to social mood reality could be, well, historic.
ReplyDeleteLong FTSE100 @ 5420.5
ReplyDeleteThanks CR. I've got a link to Chris' videos over there in the right side bar but unfortunately we never know exactly 'when' he has posted a new one. So readers just have to click it every once in a while to see if he's updated it. I believe he does a new video 'at least' every week. It's the grey video button marked Technical Traders Inc.
ReplyDeleteIt looks to me like the bots are putting on a full court press whenever needed in order to prevent a meltdown. Both SPY and IWM are hanging on by a thread with a full blown vacuum just under the market. I guess it's no wonder the plunge protection team is afraid to let it get out of control today. If it broke down I could see the Russell losing 5% by time the week is finished. So they'll probably try to jack it up yet again. Lots of volume coming into play here. But if the Russell can't hold the LOD then I'd say it's going to be bombs away.
ReplyDeleteIt looks to me like the bots are putting on a full court press whenever needed in order to prevent a meltdown. Both SPY and IWM are hanging on by a thread with a full blown vacuum just under the market. I guess it's no wonder the plunge protection team is afraid to let it get out of control today. If it broke down I could see the Russell losing 5% by time the week is finished. So they'll probably try to jack it up yet again. Lots of volume coming into play here. But if the Russell can't hold the LOD then I'd say it's going to be bombs away with Russell 750 totally reachable. But it's gotta get going here or the orcs are just going to delay the decline again. Here's a simplified look at things. Based on a RENKO for the Russell I'd have to say we're still headed lower.
ReplyDeleteHey AR, I'm not one to pay much attention to lunar phase cycles and their affect on crowd behaviour as reflected in the markets, but I'm aware the new moon on 5/20.. What are your thoughts on the lunar phases and its bearing? Do you think markets may remain under pressure as the new moon approaches and mark a low say Friday or Monday? I see a lot of folks discussing the coming lunar phase on other blogs.. Personally I don't use it because I don't pay much attention to it, but I've seen some historical studies and I find it rather uncanny how many short term highs and lows 'do' get hit at or close to both the full and new moon lunar phases through the course of a full year. Your thoughts please.
ReplyDeleteI'm identical to you in that regard. I don't believe in it but perhaps I should. Because I do believe that the phases of the moon effect humanity in all kinds of weird ways. All we need to do is to ask emergency workers who report that invariably they get more calls to emergencies (some of them totally wacky) with certain phases of the moon. If I'm not mistaken, they get a surge at "full moon".
ReplyDeleteSo why wouldn't it affect the thinking of those who trade? Yet I simply do not know if there is truly a correlation that is measurable or visible. So with that, I offer my apologies to our many friends who talk about it on a semi-regular basis. I guess it's just that I've got so many different metrics that I use that I must be almost reluctant to "fit another one in", lol.
Just a WAG on the AUD/JPY.
ReplyDeletehttp://i.imgur.com/baMV0.jpg
That would go along with your calls below. The orcs are absolutely messing with the markets today though. They're trying their damnedest to fall right down into the vacuum below where there was very little trading volume in the past. But the manipulators are doing everything in their power to keep that from happening. Aggravating as hell because this is one of those prime examples that show how the market has literally been ruined by the banking pigs.
ReplyDeleteRock on USDJPY. Rock on.
ReplyDeleteThis market concerns me. I am not firing that long position this week. I decided. I don't want the drawdown if this is a puke. I would rather miss the bounce. Way too crowded a trade.
ReplyDeleteI am not being a bear tard. I have no problem hitting it, and I have the signals firing setups (probably enough of them end of day today), but for the fact that we are weekly selling and only time we bounced in this arear from weekly selling since 2003 was in June 2011. If I get some currency signals I will enter. MACD crosses on a daily or something solid. I can always hit a backtest higher.
I pretty much think I am wrong. But I am being cautious. Good luck allzzz!!!
SJ, the charts in the post above are offering some guidance. Just hit the "update" links underneath the charts.
ReplyDeleteMerci. I don't need anything here. I know where we are at on the scenarios. I am just gonna be cautious.
ReplyDeleteNYSE is approaching (hasn't hit) a target arear. Maybe if we get SPX 1315ish I will reassess. I have the setups and signals for a bounce (probably more tonight). I continue to trade this...carefully...http://i835.photobucket.com/albums/zz279/SoulJester/June_Swoon.pngThis more bearish scenario concerns me because I haven't yet been able to find an edge against it apart from short term swing indicators.http://i835.photobucket.com/albums/zz279/SoulJester/June_Swoon-Dow.png
You guys have a good day and trade safe!!
ReplyDeleteYou too. Live long and prosper like a muthaf......
ReplyDeleteGreginBaltimore.....
ReplyDeleteFound this chart last weekend. Don't know if you saw it, so reposting it.
http://i835.photobucket.com/albums/zz279/SoulJester/Dollar_Secular_Low_1996_Fractal.png
Put that line on your chart. We broke it today. USDJPY as you remember broke its wedge earlier this year.
That fractal they are using in the chart was a midterm election with a Democrat president in 1996. I could give a fuck about that. What I do care about is that was the 16 year cycle in the dollar that we have been talking about and playing on all levels.
16 year cycle low. http://i835.photobucket.com/albums/zz279/SoulJester/Dollar_Secular_Low_1996_Fractal.png
So, the point I am trying to make, is if you can get risk free on it and leave a runner, that runner could literally run until 2017.
So, on currency pairs, theory I have been going with is long USDCAD for risk off moves in equities, and long USDJPY for risk on moves in equities. If that makes sense. Theory being that dollar going up, so I want to be long dollar either way.
ReplyDeleteHell yes. The dynamics of the macro environment may be a bit different, but the result is the same - flight to dollars.
ReplyDeleteI think we covered this the other day over at troll central - long USDJPY is fighting the FED. So far we're winning.
In the short term, that was at least five waves up since yesterday's low. Setup for nested 1-2s and thrust to more upside.
Hey, thanks SJ ... I can't get to this site during the day on non-Thursdays from the work web, but I wanted to give a YAY for that USD/JPY ... what a damned beautifully behaved wave. MACD crossing on the daily like you'd mentioned. And coming out of the channel today ... Let the races begin!
ReplyDeleteAgree guys. We are either a wave early long term, which it doesn't look like not that the lines are busting up, or we are watching a currency opportunity that won't come again for 8 years. I am obsessing aboot it.
ReplyDeleteRoger!!!
ReplyDeleteSo, looking at that 96 fractal, if we get a wave down after piercing that line, it is a buy. That wave would probably be an up wave for USDJPY and a sideways/down wave for USDCAD is my thinking.
You are unbelievably right about Chia, by the way. Thanks again.
ReplyDeletehttp://chartramblings.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/dax-sell-signal.html
ReplyDeleteVery nice. I don't know if you guys have this indicator, but scares the shit out of me. IF you do or don't, we should probably not talk too much aboot it as it is very solid.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/John-Carlucci-111128-Best-Indicator-Ever-Part1.php
Yep AR I just spotted this one on Forexpros.I am not a regular follower but he normally has something interesting to say .I am just freaked out to see SLW and NEM down here ! I dont own them but may do soon !
ReplyDeleteYes, I agree. I think this is our 2nd very good chance to get on this rocket. A 7 week correction.
ReplyDeleteMy spidey sense is going off loudly.
Reminds me of when it came out of the last resistance line.
And a MACD crossover on the daily ... I'm salivating.
Gotta say I love those Chia seeds too.
ReplyDeleteYAY
ReplyDeleteYeah. Greenface prolly changed my life with one post!
ReplyDeletekiwi is getting absolutely crushed here
ReplyDeleteYup! I have charts for that one as well as for stocks above their 50 day and stocks above their 150 day. Then I make a ratio between the 50 and 200 day ones. The ratio hasn't produced anything useful that I can see, but the $SPXA150R is a good one for sure.
ReplyDeleteDid you try some chia SJ? Like, was it new to you? What happened after you ate some? lol
ReplyDeleteI mean, did you notice some good things? Because I've been meaning to get some and was pleased to have found out that my daughter was already onto chia. But she "did not" know all the benefits. She only knew it was 'good for ya'.
If you haven't, tou should look at the levels from that chart post and the indicators. Very very good use of that chart imho. Very very good.
ReplyDeleteI'm pretty surprised to see the miners selling off like this as well. Especially since I've been suggesting that if we get a deflationary scenario gold and silver could very well hold up strongly. But maybe I'm wrong about that. In any case, the day will come when precious metals miners will be the buy of the decade. But it appears that day may be a long way off CR.
ReplyDeleteOne thing I urge you to do before you buy those... pay attention to the 10 day moving average. If it isn't pointed higher, don't buy it yet. In fact, I'd even urge you to insist that you see the 50 day MA turn higher because as long as that thing is pointed solidly lower like it is now, that's a bear market in SLW and NEM. Go figure... but it is what it is. Wait for it buddy... you'll be glad you did.
Yeah. Whole lot more energy. I didn't see things or laugh or anything, lol, but very noticeable increase in energy level.
ReplyDeleteThank you. Don't get me wrong, I trusted Greener wholeheartedly, but it's neat to hear that testimony from a first time 'user', lol.
ReplyDeleteI'm definitely going to get me some.
Yup, I'm going to do some work with that one. I've even posted the link to Doug's article in a folder where I have those "percent of stocks above..." charts as a reminder to get to work on it as soon as I get a bit of time.
ReplyDeleteRoger. I just happened upon it and spent some time with it. It is too good not to share.
ReplyDeleteYeah. I can feel the difference when I run in the mornings, when I wake up, everything. Pretty sure it is not placebo effect because I have gone a few days without and not thought about it and then noticed again in an unthinking way.
ReplyDeleteHere's why I love chia seeds ....
ReplyDeleteI've been taking them for a year now, and I like that it keeps me from having energy lulls in the afternoon, makes me feel more energetic and calm also ... like a sense of calm and peacefullness from having more nutrients. Keeps the body hydrated, my brain seems to be more focused. Used to have cravings to eat a ton, this ravenous hunger, but no more. I can now even miss a meal and not have plummeting energy levels. The Coats everything in gell in the stomache, so slows digestion of sugars and prevents them turning into fat. So, lost 8 pounds and kept it off. Helps build muscle mass -- got stronger for my runs. I think the omega3, essential fatty acids and all the vitamins help me not get sick as much, and my skin looks way younger than 46 when I've had a few glasses -- like later that day. gell is supposed to keep all cells in the body functioning better and delivering whatever vitamins the body needs. AND the little water soluable balls go through the intestines absorbing toxins and clensing the body. Amazing stuff. I like the feeling of the body running on premium gas (it just feels like it's operating at a higher level) Keep thinking I have to stock the larder with more. People can live on just chia seeds and water! A wonder food. Glad to hear you all enjoying the chia drinks!
Yay, fruit slicing ninja! LOL
ReplyDeleteUSDJPY monthly.
ReplyDeleteWhat could be more bullish?
Broke through the middle BB after 6 years, and has completed a retest of it.
Clearly the japanese ruler weilding currency traders reference this chart.
What a track record for the bigger picture! Damn, that is beyond amazing.
ReplyDeleteGreg, SJ, Greener... since we're all helping each other stay healthy, here's a link I'd like to share with you guys. Now I've already told you about the incredible benefits of colloidal silver and I mean it... the stuff is miraculous. Get it at your local "food supplements store", "health food store" before the god damned FDA gets it banned for human consumption by having it reclassified as a "pesticide". Can you believe that? That's what they're trying to do because colloidal silver makes all their phony vaccinations redundant.
ReplyDeleteNow... for this new one. There's an old country 'doctor' who has been curing people of cancer with the such a simple home remedy that you won't believe it. I just made some, 5 minutes ago. Tastes like candy. Here's the link:
http://www.healingcancernaturally.com/bakingsoda-maplesyruptreatment.html
...and here's the specific text you should look for:
"Mix one part baking soda with three parts maple syrup in a small saucepan.
Stir briskly.
Heat for five minutes.
Take one teaspoon daily, as needed.
Go easy with the word "heat". It doesn't mean "cook" because if you heat it up much at all it 'will' turn into candy. You want it to remain liquid and it's thick enough as it is. So all you do is warm it up on the stove top just enough to mix everything together nice. In fact after it was all mixed up nice, I add a few tablespoons of water and mixed it again, just to make it flow easily enough into a spoon. Then I put it into a squeeze bottle like the one the maple syrup comes in.
Bros, this pair is one anal currency pair ... it sure likes to follow anal little patterns.
ReplyDelete13 week cycles, monthly bollinger bands, wave counts.
DK told me that the japanese invented candlestick trading with rice prices long time ago.
Roger. I think it is so good we shouldn't post it or talk about it. Just share it quietly. Off to bed all. Peace. Om.
ReplyDeleteGood night.
ReplyDeleteTalk about what? lol
I'm not sure, lol. But here's an interesting picture.
ReplyDeleteGM all. Folks, because I'm not that good at EW analysis can any EWavers out there provide an opinion regarding my wave count for the gold futures market since last year's high. I'm thinking a double zig-zag abc-x-abc corrective wave pattern.. Any ideas or thoughts are greatly appreciated. Many thanks. Chairman.
ReplyDeleteWow! There's also a guy who swims with sharks ...
ReplyDeleteBuenas Dias Amigos!
ReplyDeleteJust checking -in quickly to say Hi,
--looks like Ursa Major getting warmed up...hope you've all been good boys & girls while I've been away (Greener, hope you held on to that awesome EURUSD short you put on).
I'll be back 24/7 next week.
Adios & good hunting.
DK
The basics of EW is where it's at. :)
ReplyDeleteGold is tough to count with that extended climb. It could be counted as a top already in and currently working a 5th of a first impulse down.
But if it is a 4th as you have it, it would harmonize with that speculation I posted earlier. It means another leg up for gold and equities on the US tickers, and it all suggests a new round of QE, maybe announced at the bottom of this Minor 1 move down on the GDOW. That means a Minor wave 2 that could look and act like a new bull wave on the US indexes, and for gold.
Nice!! Hadn't seen that. Merci.
ReplyDeleteThanks Greg. But I'm confused about the word "gell". I've seen you guys refer to it but I don't know what that's all about.
ReplyDelete"The basics of EW is where it's at", and in the eyes of the beholder!... I find EW a subjective tool to use in this respect.. Those who are bearish search for wave counts and evidence to suit that preconception.. and likewise for those that are bullish.. Maybe that's why Prechter & Hotchberg have performed so badly in their gold and stock markets prediction business since late 2009 when they went super bearish and remained so. Anyway, thanx for the response Papa.. As for gold, it must better is late Feb high if its to recover its uptrend.. IMO the death knell for gold would be a lower high that I would short with both hands.
ReplyDeleteThat's cool info. It makes sense. Like it's one pair that will play by the rules, attentively.
ReplyDeleteWhat's happening Vato
ReplyDeleteTook some off the table when we were meandering around 1.29 last week, but held on to most. Now I expect we'll run down about another 80 to 100 pips or so to around the Jan low before any meaningful bounce.
The potential for a waterfall event is all there. All the ducks are lined up yet the 'crash' isn't happening at all. I'm getting the sense that a big bounce is coming. Perhaps this is all of wave 1 and it's finished. It's certainly possible to count 5 waves down off the May 1 peak.
ReplyDeleteFrom my perspective and a few others that I read, it is going up short term but medium term it will be going down lower than today. Opex volatility is getting in the way but that will also come to pass. I hate Opex week ....
ReplyDeleteUS$ ADX has gone over 60 around 3:00AM this morning which should mean that the dollar's surge is over for the moment. Weaker dollar means stronger equities.We've been getting lower lows on /ES since 11:00 without new lower ticks on the 1 min. chart. That's not normal, probably manipulation to better rape the bears after hours
Thanks for the feedback Maumaj. Yeah, for some reason I'm smelling a bounce here. The SPX settled perfectly in that gap at 132 (thanks again Chairman67). Positive divergences abound now but it wouldn't take a huge bounce to alleviate those conditions at all. I think it's pretty easy to count 5 waves off the top already although that doesn't necessarily mean the slide is over... just that it now 'could be'.
ReplyDeleteI doubt very much if you hate OPEX week as much as I do, lol. It's a bastard of a bad influence on the markets and constantly messes up what would otherwise be its 'natural' flow. In fact I guess I have to admit that that factor is also making me very suspicious of a wicked bounce over the next two days. It doesn't have to happen but knowing how criminal those bankers are I have every reason to suspect they'll goose the market way up there to grab up as much as that free money (options premiums) as they can. And the max. pain levels are way higher than where the market is sitting as of this evening.
"We've been getting lower lows on /ES since 11:00 without new lower ticks
on the 1 min. chart. That's not normal, probably manipulation to
better rape the bears after hours."
Thanks... that's interesting info. Would you be able to post any sort of chart that might show what that would look like? If not, that's fine. I'm just pretty interested in what you're observing.
Scary day. SPX closed at the 1324ish and NYSE at 7592. Both potential support arears. Wonder if they hold. If they don't that is prolly really bad.
ReplyDeleteIffin it don't bounce, those 400 gurus who said bounce and bottom a coming gonna look pretty stupid. I fired my bounce trade today. I might eat it. But today was first day where dippers looked scared and we were at potential support.
I think this is going much lower, with or without a bounce. I am playing the with a bounce part todayzz, but I still gots no confidence as I still cannot rule out the crash scenario.
Bigger picture today is the first day where the complacency seemed to switch a bit, anecdotally, to fear. The past 3 days and this morning all we have heard is buy the dip, perfect spot, bottom here. After this close we are starting to hear fear and crisis and so forth.
I wouldn't go big on being a contrarian here, other than a risk reward trade you can eat, because somebody, I think Mitchkeller, pointed out a couple days ago that 3rd waves are where contrarianism doesn't work. Not to hard to see in SPX that off the April high we are in a 3rd wave down (whether it be a C or a 3 or a pepperoni pizza). Where it will end, nobody knows.
Not much we are in a fourth wave just look at it jibberish today like we have seen since 1370.
All I gots. Not much in the way of charts except for what I have been posting the past few days. NYSE 7600ish is the first target arear....and the second target arear makes more sense harmonically (and because CRX broke down). So, we could get a false bottom here (or not).
http://i835.photobucket.com/albums/zz279/SoulJester/NYSE-Harmonic_Targets.png
After hours the market continue to trickle lower but not by much. And at the same time the Aussie:Yen cross seems to be wanting to head higher. It's a trap I tell ya... it's a trap, lol.
ReplyDeleteHey AR... not sure about waterfall events.. Can say though the SPX gap got filled.. SPY is just shy but good enough.. what all that means I haven't a clue! You are no doubt aware all the bottoming indicators as I am... I sold TZA late yesterday and been scaling into equity long positions today, Asian pacific and finally some leveraged US index longs in the dying minutes, doing the same as John Hampson really and for the same reasons he's been buying.
ReplyDeleteCheck his latest blog post 'On The Attack' in which he amalgamates lots of data from others sites and bundles them into his analysis, http://solarcycles.net/2012/05/16/on-the-attack/#comments His blog was formerly called 'Amalgamator' for that very reason, before he changed it to SolarCycles.net. Later man. Chairman.
Thanks for the input bud. I'm starting to see all kinds of support for the argument for a bounce now. I also nibbled today. Was short with IWM but bailed out with this morning's initial ramp. The bastards. But later I started to see some signals and dipped my toe in with longs on IWM. Then later, toward the close I went long SPY as well. Just nibbling because all of a sudden it has become some scary shit to go long. Who would have thought three weeks ago that it would 'ever' become scary to go long? I've always been very aware of, but amazed by, how quickly sentiment can chance. What's really impressive is how severe a shift it is. One day we're scared half to death to even consider going short. And two weeks later we think anybody who considers going long to be insane. Don't get me wrong though, on the larger picture I'm absolutely bearish, with full confidence. BUT... a bounce is due I think and a bounce in a bear cycle can be oh so vicious.
ReplyDeleteThanks a bunch for that link as well. I really like what I see on that site and I'm going to spend some time this afternoon really investigating what that dude offers. Looks like a great site. I'm so happy with you today that I just have to give you a lovely picture as a token of my appreciation. In fact I'll give you two pictures. One of them is what peoples' front lawns can look like in Banff. The second one is all about how much fun the ladies are having poolside, lol:
On second thought, there is nothing scary about this market whether it crashes or rallies.
ReplyDeletere: much lower.
ReplyDeleteI would agree, except we are day'11 ALREADY. Were we day'3, 5, even 7, yeah, we'd have a chance at much lower levels, but really, I just can't see it.
As you may have read, I went long from sp'1334 earlier, So I'm underwater already, although at least I'm within 1 day of getting back evens with any initial bounce.
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i just can't imagine 15 days down. There is NOT yet the sell volumn, VIX remains relatively low, and there is still not a motivating current issue to knock this market down.
I will note we 'could' go down to 1300/1290 tomorrow or Friday, but I'd sure be surprised, considering its opex, and we have the Facebook hysteria IPO to get through.
We've lost almost 100 SP'500 points in 11 days, its time for a bounce.
I was talking lower either with a bounce first, or after a bounce. I am playing the bounce scenario, carefully.
ReplyDeleteAre you saying if we bounce we cannot then go lower?
oh no, not at all.
ReplyDeleteI am actually looking for sp'1100 by end July. A bold target to be sure, but still, if my bigger picture is correct, we'll be there in no more than 10 weeks.
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I will say, being long right now, it is not a good feeling, although I stuck to the plan today. Maybe those taking new longs today were just unlucky to see the day end weak. Hmm, not that I believe in 'luck' ;)
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The type of bounce we get will be fascinating to watch. Might we see a dow +200 day within the next 2-4 days? The primary resistance zone is 1370/80. Only a move over sp'1395 would make me question the mid term outlook.
I can't help but to go along with that PD. I'm convinced a bounce is coming tomorrow and Friday (and perhaps beyond) but of course I have no idea how big it would be. BUT... at this stage I'm also fully willing to recognize that the move down off the April high could very well be a beautiful ABC. There is nothing that prohibits the downward action we've just been through from being a corrective. My mind is completely open (and no, I'm not talking about the 'sieve' thing, lol). In fact, all the market internals charts in the post above could start to turn upward along with the markets in the coming days. If that were to happen, they would suddenly become very supportive of higher prices for equities.. Unfortunately they can't tell us how severe the next bounce might be. I've nibbled long today and for the moment at least, I'm glad I did. We'll see what happens overnight, but so far the Aussie:Yen pair is absolutely crying out for higher equities prices tomorrow. And I literally trust that pair more than I trust the futures manipulations themselves. The Aussie:Yen says a bounce is coming, so by golly... a bounce is coming.
ReplyDeleteThankyou so much....good wishes to you too Alberta..and your mini legion.
ReplyDeleteYou know, I'm still building my own mini legion on my pages too :), and its largely due to you of course. At least you had the sense (unlike me!) to tell chartrambler about my site!
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RE: ABC pullback
I was thinking about that too, but surely the break below 1340 ruins that idea? I mean, I keep posting my monthly and weekly charts, those things don't turn more than a few times each year..and mr Monthly says...DOWN we go for some months.
The notion we can somehow rally up from low 1300s to 1450/1550....I don't think so. Unless the Fed' pre-empts will NEW QE (even more operation twist does not count, its not new money), this down cycle will broadly continue as I believe across the summer.
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Frankly, the Greece situation is scary. If the 'average' european' gets the heebie jeebies and starts withdrawing their monies from the banks....it could easily spiral. We did have that briefly in the UK with one bank is late 2007 (or was it early 2008?), Northern Rock, which eventually was taken over by the state.
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So...its the midnight hour here, and I'm thinking ...'soo...err...you went long, this had better work'.
Roger. That is the scenario I have been playing. I agree. Last time NZDJPY rallied from this arear it was 100 SPX points approx. in June 2011. So, if we do get the rally, it could be a hefty one. The May 30-June 1 low may be a lower low, or a higher low.
ReplyDeleteI am playing the scenario carefully here, because I cannot take crash off the table unfortunately, but it is getting easier now as things are really getting cooked.
I think we could get the 1426-34 targets on a rally from here. Here are the two scenarios I have been tracking (old charts). We are pushing the May 15 cycle date here a bit.
ReplyDeletehttp://i835.photobucket.com/albums/zz279/SoulJester/nzdjpY_BOTTOM.png
May 30-June 4, lower low scneario
well, the first chart I can go with, the lower low, with a peak sometime next week.
ReplyDelete--
right now, i just can't see new highs, just seems so unlikely considering everything out there.
NZDJPY and AUDJPY close to getting daily MACD crosses. USDJPY already crossed and we saw what happened. FWIW.
ReplyDeleteI think and thought the same thing. I keep asking myself, why not? I cannot come up with a chart reason why it is not possible. I can come up with a chart reason (NZD/JPY) why it is possible.
ReplyDeleteI am treading carefully, but the scenario is there. The more bearish people get the more I think it might happen.
From a trading perspective it really doesn't matter. The trades are the same on both charts. If we don't care about price, what does it matter.
Yes, as the Borg would say 'price is irrevelent'.
ReplyDelete---
on my hourly charts, even though the close was weak, it still looks viable its a wedge. The apex, is roughly Friday afternoon, so if its gonna break/snap upwards, I wanna see it happen no later than early Friday.
If we're still falling into the Friday close, I'd be very concerned.
oh well
The ultimate crazy-doom chart...
ReplyDeleteI will note that we have a solar eclipse next week...and there is the issue of Puetz 'window'.
He found that market crashes tend to occur near
full moons, and that the greatest number of crashes start after the
first full moon after a solar eclipse, when that full moon is also a
lunar eclipse. Puetz found that all eight crashes occurred six days
before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks
of a solar eclipse. The odds of that being a coincidence, Puetz
calculated, are less than 1 in 127,00- Paul
Shread:
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Its just something to keep in mind. The crazy chart - as a reflection of the 2010 (right side of) Left Shoulder - if thats what it is, means this wave needs to conclude by June'6.
My monthly chart theory suggest 'mid/late July', for sp'1150/00.
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Well, its getting late, i should sleep. We do have some more econ-data Thursday (there is nothing on Friday). Will the market be 'inspired' by the Facebook ? Personally, right now, I'll be glad to exit my index long at breakeven. - sp'1334/37 ish'
goodnight
Sorry for the delay, I was away from the computer. Here's the image:
ReplyDeletehttp://content.screencast.com/users/Maumaj/folders/Jing/media/474e4992-86b4-43d4-8f23-09b601fd47da/00000354.png
Usually, you see a lower tick followed by a lower price (higher tick also precedes a higher price), a divergence if you will that seem to always play out.
From 11:00 to the close, we saw a series of lower prices without one single lower tick. The hashed lines indicate the last lower and upper ticks. Looking at this once again made me realise that the high tick seen at 14:00 normally leads to a higher price which we never got, which in my experience is rare.
You may find this interesting:
ReplyDeletehttp://content.screencast.com/users/Innovisual/folders/Default/media/fcf8a952-3923-4e6f-8d39-76b0abbbf063/VenusRetro2.jpg
I found that chart on another blog with this comment:
ReplyDeleteCollapse Venus went Retrograde Yesterday which it does every year and a half or so. It will remain retrograde until June 27th. The onset of Venus Retrograde marked The Two Lows of the Past Decade both to the Day! Oct 10, 2002 & Mar 6, 2009 as you can see on the Chart I've posted. Also the High of the Past decade was a double top which was bisected by another Venus Retro Period. It is my belief that there was another Double Top in the offing in 1999 ending the Dotcom Boom but the Fed pumped "Massive Liquidity" to offset their Fears of the Y2K Computer Problem. At least it was "Massive Liquidity" at that time now it is more like chump change. It is likely is that the market has set up another long term double top with the low between the 2 tops being set last night (right at the diagonal support line I was hoping it would hit during yesterdays trading) and the 2nd top should come in sometime in late July or early August. When a planet goes retrograde it first goes stationery (which it is now) and that is when a low is made. You'll note that occurred on every Venus Station on the chart attached except the Oct 8, 2009 . . 8 out of 9 not bad. (Oct 8th 2009 QEI time I believe)
Maumaj, I remember the day you joined this site. I didn't know who you are but of course I was pleased that you'd joined. You don't comment much but man I'm tellin' ya, your comments are terrific. Please don't hesitate to jump in more often. You're a nice presence around here.
ReplyDeleteReally, that's the way it should be SJ. I've always been more or less 'afraid' to be long for two simple reasons. It really bothered me to go against my own 'better judgement', which now I can see was wrong. The charts might have told me to go long but I was still hesitant because I have such an almost 'carnal' knowledge that if the markets are going to rise it will be for all the wrong reasons and therefore almost "evil". The second reason that I experience fear of course is that I don't like to have my future weakened by even a penny by being 'wrong'.
ReplyDeleteBut if I had neither of those concerns and just trusted my own work, made entries like I did today based on signals I trust and nothing else... then the markets should not be particularly frightening. Good cash management also goes a long way toward alleviating fear. The more 'objective' we can be in this insanely 'subjective' world of trading the better off we are.
I second that.
ReplyDeleteI gots cycle confluence late July. I think you have one very early August AR. Question always is will it be a high or a low. This is more evidence of the cycle date having significance.
"I was thinking about that too, but surely the break below 1340 ruins
ReplyDeletethat idea? I mean, I keep posting my monthly and weekly charts, those
things don't turn more than a few times each year..and mr Monthly
says...DOWN we go for some months"
I wouldn't say the level of 1320 ruins the possibility that the entire move lower has been an ABC. I would say the level attained at the Pearl Harbor High (Dec. 7th) is the key level that would negate that notion. It's somewhat subjective... depending on where we want to place the label for the wave 1 upward.
But I do certainly agree with you regarding your weekly and mumfly charts having turned lower. The 10 week MA has rolled lower too for crying out loud. From that perspective, I have to agree completely... and by doing so, and from that perspective, I'd have to agree that further upside is very, very unlikely. Therefore, I would almost assuredly be wrong about the ABC question. But the beauty of it is that we don't have to have the answer to that question tonight. The market will give clues as we move forward.
NZD/USD Daily Indicators be close to potential bounce. May be doing a wave iv on smaller charts
ReplyDeleteooer..thanks for that! will have to comment on that when i am next awake, ha. goodnight
ReplyDeleteYou're pointing out reasons to justify a bounce... and I agree. If you were to click on this chart from the post called New Bearish Developments we can see that not one of those market internals indicators turned higher today. But neither should they have considering that the markets did not improve today. But they will certainly turn higher tomorrow if the markets surge strongly. From that perspective, by going long today we have 'definitely' jumped the gun... which is so typical of those of us who try to catch the very bottom and the very top of every turn. We shouldn't really be doing it this way... but we did. So best of luck. Let's hope the bouncie comes and if it does, congrats to yourself and the others who all pulled the 'long' trigger on the same day I did, lol. To be honest, I find that to be pretty damned cool... especially if all of us were right and caught a few dollars on the way up. At the very least it means many of us have the same 'sense or feel' for the markets. I find that to be very cool actually.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the chart. So the tick is the pink data in the lowest panel I take it. And 'tick' put in a low at 11:00 and for the rest of the day tick never did fall below that level. But price did. I just discovered that I can put together the same set-up on StockCharts but I've never done it before. So you're saying that usually if prices continue to put in a lower low all day long, 'tick' should be doing the same thing... normally?
ReplyDeleteVery tough nut to crack.
ReplyDeleteBeing a perfectionist is bad. Losing trades part of the natural process. Has to be. I am by nature a perfectionist. I work really hard and not caring about being wrong, and not caring about missing part of a move. Worst thing is to get angry about being wrong and go on tilt, or to try to chase a move when you are not comfortable with the setup. Some people can hit moves I cannot. I accept that and just try to learn and get better without worrying about missing or being wrong. There is always another trade and setup tomorrow.
LOL...yay us!!!
ReplyDeleteI think we were early. But, I know that I do not know that for sure. Sometime in the next 4 days we should bounce. Pretty sure about that anyway.
I keep a table of a whole host of signals. Goal is to try to keep me patient. I am always working on them and trying to improve upon them. I got the early warning signals today (knife catchers), and the currency signals are close.
So that and the fact that NYSE hit the first target arear, and Spy hit the top of the range, was why I fired. I am going to double into it May 21 if I was early. I have a bunch of other signals that are close to flipping. Weekly stuff is all still bearish.
http://i835.photobucket.com/albums/zz279/SoulJester/Short_Term_Signals.png
http://i835.photobucket.com/albums/zz279/SoulJester/Signals_Shorter_Term.png
http://i835.photobucket.com/albums/zz279/SoulJester/Signals-1.png
Very cool. Now all you have to do is to color those words... green for "buy" and red for "sell". Pink? Nah, lol.
ReplyDeleteLOL...thought about that. Went with pink. No idea why.
ReplyDeleteOne thing I thought about doing was getting some harmonic software. Some of those patterns are 80-90 percent. I had some code on Tradestation but it wasn't really good. On my forex charts somebody wrote some code that is about the best I have seen. Saves me a ton of time. The most time consuming thing for equity stuff is all the fib work. I missed something really obvious off the October bottom (the initial 61.8 retrace) that had I noticed would have made me money at the 50 weekly. I don't know if Pebbles has software or if he does all his own from scratch. Saving time is always nice especially if you can go through a lot of charts on a lot of time frames to see the fib relationships.
ReplyDeleteHeu AR, I just got up and had some brunch.. it was 0430 when I posted that comment! one of the let downs being in this part of the world, the time zone. I lived in UK for 10 years before China and found London time for US markets was absolutely perfect.. because I could follow US markets afternoon session at home after work and still sleep at night like most normal folks do lol...
ReplyDeleteYes well that's the next big question, what's next and what will the next rally be.. a relief rally (bounce), or a rally that takes SPX up another 150 points towards the high 1400's. Binve's current analysis is looking for a new high with negative PPO divergences on the weekly chart.. From an EW perspective, which by the way I find to be totally fracking useless, I think a 5th wave up is next, which seems to fit in with the evidence that a bottom is near and that we have seen 4th wave flat correction.. Once the 5th wave up has concluded then we'll get some decent low risk shorting opportunities imo... You may also like this analysis from James Kelly at KRTT Key Level reached - Expect CIT Up Soon
Those colored areas on that chart are pretty cool. But you mentioned all the work that one could burn up in calculating Fib ratios. That's why I don't do it. I don't waste any time with it 'at all', because once a person has calculated where the 38.2%, 50%, and 62.8% Fib. levels are, the market goes on its own merry way and will hit darned near any number it wants... other than a pure fib number. To my way of thinking, to eyeball it is plenty good enough because there is absolutely nothing saying that any particular Fib. number has to be hit. It's just a waste of time in my world. In Pebble's world that's an entirely different story because he's looking for Butterfly and Crab patterns that 'do' need a particular Fib. number to be hit.
ReplyDeleteFWIW, I think Wave Principal 'Grand' has some good insights on an ED formation for this C of 4 for the bulls.. Tony Caldaro http://caldaro.wordpress.com/ is citing SPX 1499 as a target high in July.. If this is just a normal W4 flat correction and not a series of 1-2 i-ii's setting up for a waterfall event, I'd say markets are coiling for a big rally out of this low pretty darn soon. Just my two bob's worth fwiw lol....
ReplyDeleteAnother Interesting Blog that seems to have a good track record
ReplyDeletehttp://bullbeartrendlines.blogspot.com
Thanks AB, good to see you posting at Daneric's again.
ReplyDeleteAs AR mentioned in this post about my baby girl, I thought it appropriate I should post a few photos. She's now 7 months old and becoming quite a handful... like all babies though, she's sweet and adorable in every way, our Georgina, a lil beauty!
ReplyDeleteHi Milan. It's good to see you... period, lol.
ReplyDeleteI'm not posting there like I used to, not even close. For one thing most of my comments have ended up in the spam bin and Danno has never bothered to clean it out and rescue them. So Disqus thinks it has done a good job in the past by placing my comments in the spam bin and it will just continue to do that until Danno starts to pay attention to that responsibility.
Mind you, lately I've been able to post a few comments with links but if I dare edit them to correct a spelling mistake or something like that... BAM, right into the spam bin. To be honest I find that insulting and don't particularly care to contribute to a site that would allow that to happen. I imagine that's why so many other contributors that we used to see in the past are still missing as well.
But I really do appreciate your comment bro. All the best.
Tick leads price. An often seen scenario is a lowest tick of the day, followed by a lowest price of the day with no new lower tick which should start the reversal. Confirmation is when a new higher tick of the day is printed.
ReplyDeleteCorey Rosenbloom has lots of posts on the subject on his site:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/
I've got long term shorts on and also smaller amounts of short term long positions.
Thanks for the kind words. A like the safe environment of your blog. I had noticed you on Daneric's site and followed you when you started here.
ReplyDeleteI'm curious about trying the Chia, have you found an affordable canadian supplier?
The same poster that offered that chart and the comment, gave this site address this morning:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/
He offers free overviews apparently. I haven't studied this and know little about the subject.
I appreciate that SPY gap being pointed out. On the other hand, there's a decent EW argument to be made that ES established a bottom this morning. I'm not too excited about taking a long position as the market has consistently been unable to maintain a rally, but I think this may be one of those rare instances where the occasional special value of EWT can be put on display. In addition, momentum has been stretched to the downside. Just looking at where SPX sits relative to Bollinger Bands across various time frames tells me a bounce is likely. If it continues to press downward, then we have, I believe, a very damaged market.
ReplyDeleteI support that count. In ES there's an ending diagonal following a triangle (see chart posted above). That's a rather definitive EW pattern. Of course any pattern can be broken or morph into something else.
ReplyDeleteI loudly echo your comment that being a perfectionist is bad. I wish I could forget all the huge ES moves I've missed because the market didn't quite make it to the extreme I wanted to see. Misses of 0.25 and 0.50 pts -- soooo many times. I'm working on it as it's become something approaching a systematic error in my trading.
ReplyDeleteI like your analysis PD and appreciate your outlook, but the lunar eclipse is on June 4.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't that put the crash out for a few weeks?
Don't get me wrong, I love Puetz and highly recommend his books. I expect this signal to be correct. Question is when
here we go again -
ReplyDeletehas it been five waves down or is the third wave extending?
The age old Elliott Wave dilemma
here we go again -
ReplyDeletehas it been five waves down or is the third wave extending?
The age old Elliott Wave dilemma
*good morning Greenface, AR, and others
ReplyDeleteThe Spanish IBEX remains the first sell signal I noticed in February....its at 6500...there is a near guarenteed 1500pts lower to come within the next 1-3 months. The other world indexes also look set to lose at least 10/15% from current levels.
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This morning is really starting to annoy me. -
Re: moon, so there is a lunar eclipse june'4, with the solar (annular) eclipse this Sunday May'20. Hmm
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LOL. I think I'll just call you "Shorty" for the rest of today.
ReplyDeleteI was thinking that way last night Doc, when I went long, lol. But man, I bailed at the open and just have to respect the fact that the market is moving into the air pockets and into an acceleration channel at the same time. I just can't see any 'up' anymore. I was totally seeing it your way last night and even posting arguments why a bounce should happen. As of this moment, I'm long with a small position in IWM but other than that I'm just standing aside and looking for a chance to bail out of that position and go short with both feet. I'm going to be patient and wait for it. I'll know it when I see it.
ReplyDeleteIn the meantime, you haven't been around here for quite a while so I doubt you've seen that chart I put together that entertained the idea of "exponential decay"? I'm really starting to think that's the ticket.
No, not yet. I only looked on-line and discovered that the price was 4 times what SJ is paying. I haven't looked any further. Why do you ask... are you in Canada?
ReplyDeleteJust don't call me late for dinner
ReplyDeleteba dump bump
I think Greg mentioned this before - the big thing for me is that dragging feeling in the mid-afternoon. Some people reach for some coffee (and then feel sick later), some people take a shot of their 5 hour energy drink or whatever (and then get sick later).
ReplyDeleteAll you need is to mix a tablespoon or two in some juice with lunch and you're good to go until midnight. Better yet wash it down with some beet juice
Looks like this morning gave us a lil capitulation! Check these images out.. SPX precisely backtested its trend line connecting the 2007-2011 highs. The DJIA got within $10 of its trend line.. If that's it for all of C of 4, I'd say the precision of that back test is pretty darn incredible!
ReplyDeletePlus like SJ said, when you keep the kind of hours we do
ReplyDeletedoing what we do
at our age
swimming with sharks & whales
you need all the help you can get
Well, FYI the specific ED count shown on the chart was invalidated. Maybe the ED just needs more development. On the other hand ..............
ReplyDeleteYou meant "beer" juice, didn't you?
ReplyDeleteOne of our mistakes is probably playing moves that are "too small" with investments that are "too big". Any investor can breath a bit easier if he plays for larger swings and with relatively smaller investments. If it goes his way... then average in and apply stops. That's my theory... one that I don't necessarily stick to, lol.
ReplyDeletehello chairman - I'm kinda new here, so no idea about you yet ;)
ReplyDeletethanks for the link to caldaro, that target is very provoking. high 1400s by end July? I suppose if the ECB and the Greeks play nice for a few months, its viable. Yet I can't see the Greek elections ending well, more likely to end with higher levels of uncertainty and a really angry populace.
good wishes
It's not just for breakfast anymore
ReplyDeleteI must be one fickle bastard. I see what you're seeing now, but because today didn't produce the bounce I was sure was coming, I'm once again in full bear mode. I don't know if I'll ever get it right.
ReplyDeleteHey Doom, yeah likewise, I'm new here too! My second week of participating in a small way on this board.. I was acquainted with AR last year on Mike Eckert's CiL at 'EW Trends and Charts' until he decided its in his best interest to charge $20 a month for the privilage after which, I went into a year long hibernation that I've only just emerged out from..
ReplyDeleteRegarding the situation in Greece and Europe in general, I hardly ever pay much attention to it.. I rarely watch or follow any news stories about that stuff.. However John Hampson wrote some thoughts about it on his blog today http://solarcycles.net/2012/05/17/equities-update/ "With a rerun of the Greek elections scheduled for June 17, some Greek
citizens withdrawing deposits from banks, and Euro CDSs still climbing,
there is clearly fuel for fear to overwhelm the markets. Based on recent
history though, governments and central banks will intervene in any
significant escalation, supporting markets. If the situation in Europe
is again diffused, then positive leading indicators and a further tick
up in economic surprises will likely return the fore, fuelling a period
of mean reversion for pro-risk away from oversold and overbearish
extremes, and out of the safe havens of treasuries and the dollar."
With further respect to market moving news events I think Brinkley says it best with this "The beauty of technical analysis is that it's the collective visual
representation of all market influences and elements-- human emotion,
earnings, geopolitics, manipulation, corruption, acts of god, the
alignment of the planets, and smoke signals if you like. If you see it
there, it's legitimate; it is what it is. -- Brinkley 7-17-2009
Chairman... just so you know. I still think Mike Eckert is a top notch guy and still consider him a friend. But the reason I stopped posting articles on his site was due to one rooster over there who took it upon himself to spend a full 70 minutes one morning critiquing one of my articles from about every perspective you could imagine. I don't mind being criticized, but it came from one of the "founding fathers" of that site who was supposedly on the same team I was... Michael's team.
ReplyDeleteThe sole purpose of that entire criticism, filled with left handed compliments and asteisms, was to prove his dick was bigger. He just wanted to make sure everybody knew he was the big frog in that pond. Unfortunately, this fellow is considered by Michael to be a crucial element to his 'team', so I simply didn't want to bother Mike with the battle that was surely looming. It wasn't that I felt I had any status... it's just that I won't be shit upon by 'anybody', in real life or on the internet.
I just bailed out because the only man who ever had the status to deride me or talk down to me was my own father... and he never did it. So nobody else is going to stomp all over me and get away with it... period. Besides, I'm a good guy. I don't bother anybody or attack anybody (except trolls of course, who have attacked me first). And I never left that site to start a blog either. In fact it was almost another year before I started this blog. Just wanted to set the record straight on that because one fellow, Geno, tried to goad me a bit by saying "so I heard you and Michael Eckert had a big falling out." We did not... it was just an unfortunate circumstance.
GDX, GLD, XME, NZDUSD, AUDUSD are not following with this at all....Intellesting..
ReplyDeleteChairman... just so you know. I still think Mike Eckert is a top notch guy and still consider him a friend.
ReplyDeleteBut the reason I stopped posting articles on his site was due to one
rooster over there who took it upon himself to spend a full 70 minutes
one morning critiquing one of my articles from about every perspective
you could imagine. I don't mind being criticized, but it came from one
of the "founding fathers" of that site who was supposedly on the same
team I was... Michael's team.
The sole purpose of that entire criticism, filled with left handed
compliments and asteisms, was to prove his dick was bigger. He just
wanted to make sure everybody knew he was the big frog in that pond.
Unfortunately, this fellow is considered by Michael to be a crucial
element to his 'team', so I simply didn't want to bother Mike with the
battle that was surely looming. It wasn't that I felt I had any
status... it's just that I won't be shit upon by 'anybody', in real life
or on the internet.
I just bailed out because the only man who ever had the status to deride
me or talk down to me was my own father... and he never did it. So
nobody else is going to stomp all over me and get away with it...
period. Besides, I'm a good guy. I don't bother anybody or attack
anybody (except trolls of course, who have attacked me first). And I
never left that site to start a blog either. In fact it was almost
another year before I started this blog. Just wanted to set the record
straight on that because one fellow, Geno, tried to goad me a bit by
saying "so I heard you and Michael Eckert had a big falling out." We
did not... it was just an unfortunate circumstance.
Yeah that was a kick in the head.
ReplyDeleteIt turned out to be a 3 wave move off the low last Wednesday.
I don't see 79 taken out however, at least today anyway
Hey bro, I think you might have got the wrong end of the stick.. what I wrote in my reply to Doom wasn't directed at you or your relationship with Mike.. Just saying how Mike decided to stick a price tag on his CiL that I had no interest in buying! just wanted that to be clear!
ReplyDeleteBut yes I am aware what happened regarding that particular event with a certain individual beginning with A for something hole I think lol... you gave me the full spool on it last year!... As for Mike yeah he's a great guy for sure.. And perhaps Geno's comment was innocent, not a goad as he may not have fully understood what was going on.. Text and chat messages sometimes don't display the feelings that well and can be taken the wrong way, especially if any ill feelings are still lingering on.... just saying bro.. take it easy.. Best get back to watching these markets now! Later Bro.
PS that 2007-2011 trend line got beached at midday by about 4 points.. If that's the pivot low, the back test I cited is still legit really.. The PM's have already blasted off.. so perhaps risk-on is starting to ramp up again!
http://www.pivotfarm.com/blog/2012/05/16/retail-trader-positioning-17th-may/
ReplyDeleteI don't necessarilly agree with these trading recommendations. I think these numbers are coincident indicators and only serve to help tell you which way the trend is going. When the trend changes, they don't give much advance notice and will turn on a dime with price.
I think I saw the Yen in the upper 70% range in the beginning of May, so it did turn down from an extreme.
However, it's still a pretty dang crowded trade. They need to shake out some more longs I guess
RIP Donna Summers
ReplyDeleteDamn that sucks. Great singer
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-mjl63e0ms
Dude, you do realise that's Diana Ross you posted not Donna Summer!
ReplyDeleteAR, today's drop to SPX 1311 filled the lower gap I cited at SPY 131.32 (SPX 1312.41), however SPY didn't quite fill its gap. It seems SPX may have found support at the 1313 pivot cited by Tony Caldaro on his blog. With both gaps filled I'd say this post has pretty much spent itself! lol... Later bro..
ReplyDeleteYeah. Was still a profitable trade, but was hoping that weekly channel would give us the big one. I can't hit a big candle like this so have to wait for another setup. I am long NZD/USD starter position here and the USDCAD runner and waiting....I think we bounce, but still cannot take crash off the table, so treading lightly....hit the price arear for the May 14/15 Swoon into June cycle date today, so watching with sum interest....
ReplyDelete"She's now 7 months old and becoming quite a handful"
ReplyDeleteOhh.... just wait daddy-o till that beautiful child who loves you turns 17!
You are certainly in for the journey... love her, love her, love her.... and there are no guarantees. You can only give her roots and wings...
my 17 year old...
Very Nice. Adding that. I wonder if we can marry it with this???
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dailyfx.com/technical_analysis/sentiment/?technicalSentiment=EUR/USD
Mate, by the time she turns 17 I'II be 62 if I haven't kicked the bucket.. I'II be like putty in her hand!
ReplyDeleteComment posted today by Ryan Parker on Tony Caldaro's blog.. I read the article and found it quite interesting.. " Interesting perspective on things from a Greek citizen saying we may get
ReplyDeletea positive surprise in the June elections which could kick the can down
the road for another 6-12 months". http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/bruce-krasting/a-surprising-conversation-with-athens
I did a web search for canadian suppliers of chia seeds, here are the different suppliers that I found that are listed on this web page:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.alibaba.com/countrysearch/CA/chia.html
I found one in Montreal that sells for $19/kg for 1kg or $17/kg for 8kg. Shipping would be about $9. I did not read up on all the others. There may be one closer to you and at a better price. Let me know if you find a better deal.
That is very nice!
ReplyDeleteLooks like capitulation is on.. Price cut right through them later in the day.. pity, was looking like a perfect back test for a moment..
ReplyDeleteThanks for doing that Maumaj. I'll do a more serious search too, later. Right now I have to get outta here until midnight eastern. Have a great afternoon :-)
ReplyDeleteI'll be joining back up here soon. I had to close out my brokerage accts as Penson Financial is being delisted and under great debt and I certainly dont want them holding my cash. I think I will open with TD Ameritrade and learn their TOS platform. Schwab was also in the running, only because they have a local office here.
ReplyDeleteOn another note.... What is unraveling in Europe right now is absolutely incredible. I can't see how volatility will be abated and we all go back to "normal". We are entering into huge transition and all bets are off. I think we will see the day when our trades wont go through. I cant help but wonder if I am making a mistake by even participating in this game.
Bears well in control of this market.. hat tip to them.. see what tomorrow brings with options expiration, Facebook IPO.. Where's the rally AR? looks like bulls are in trouble here.. Is this a repeat of August last year? Things can gets dicey here, even for the bears! So far this decline resonates symmetry with last year's May-June decline in both time and price. Tomorrow is also 33/34 Fib days since the 4/2 high.. a turn maybe imminent! Later.
ReplyDeleteMaumaj.....
ReplyDeleteI spent some time with your cycle stuff comparing it against charts and so forth. I want to make sure I understand your interpretation of the venus retrograde. It is okay if it is different (data is a good thing either way).
Can you tell me if it would jive with the following time (forget price, just talking time):
June 16-20=Low
July 27/Aug 27=High (working on narrowing this one)
September 28-30=Low
End of Year=High
Would really appreciate your thoughts and time periods. I know cycles can get switched, reversed, or fail to resonate, but I am interested in this if you have time because I can draw price scenarios around it.
urghhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
ReplyDelete--
I am tired, and semi-distraught at my latest stupid trade (long at sp'1334).
I probably won't be around much this evening, but hope everyone here is doing okay. VIX hit the 24 target..so now we'll see. If 'panic' occurs tomorrow or Monday..then next VIX target is 31 - which implies at least sp'1270..possibly 1250.
-
i need sp'1350..or my summer is wrecked already.
What is money? A store of wealth, a measure of value, or a
ReplyDeletehuman expression
The market internals got absolutely slaughtered today... again. You can see an update on that by clicking the links below the charts above. In fact they're getting to levels seldom seen, levels where bounces occur. BUT... the market is still in the air pocket, which it is in the process of slicing through as suggested in the last post.
ReplyDeleteStunning. I'd sure like her mom I'll bet, lol.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qp9dc9im3-M
ReplyDelete"I just have to let it go..."
ReplyDeleteGreat reminder, thanks!
Wowzer ... was in the home office today when the floor fell out of the USDJPY -- ouch. I think it was probably a squeeze on the crowded long bets. I agree, 79 would be a 5/8 retrace, and a good place to finally stop.
ReplyDeleteSoulJester,As I mentionned yesterday, the chart and the comments were from what I found at another site. The trader goes by the name of "Darth Trader" and he is active at "evilspeculator.com". Here is another one of his charts that could maybe help you: http://www.screencast.com/users/Innovisual/folders/Default/media/3677590d-2a75-4fe8-baff-006ac646cd6c
ReplyDeleteDarth Trader also mentionned that more information can be obtained from this site:
http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/
Good luck
Soul Jester,
ReplyDeleteI answered and my post has disappeared. It had three links so it probably ended up in the trash bin. AR, could you check please?
Love this... thanks for posting.
ReplyDeletePerhaps we will innovate our way out of debt slavery? Who says we have to use their monetary system? WE create the market!
Hi Everyone,
ReplyDeleteI know AR and many others of you are certified EW experts. I, on the other hand, am a proud owner of a dunce cap signed by Prechter himself. A squadron of elite Amazon.com ninjas assaulted me in broad daylight and repossessed my copy of Elliott Wave Principles. I'm under court orders never to practice wave theory...or even wave to anyone.
I've been zeroed in on 1289-1317 for the past 4-5 weeks (yay!) but am uncertain about the EW implications of a dip below last October's 1292 high. Seems to me it's a big, honking 1-4 overlap that could tear the bulls' universe asunder; so, I've assumed TPTB will pull out ALL the stops before letting it happen.
Am I reading the EW tea leaves correctly? Is there still a possible bullish interpretation if we violate 1292? Would love to hear some opinions.
PW
Mom is significantly older and lost her youthful looks. I do work out everyday and try to take care of myself, but hey, there is NO stopping time! Thanks for the compliment....
ReplyDeleteMy baby leaves to Argentina for 6 months this summer. Ill be an empty nester.
The cat died, the dog died four years ago, and Im alone. So Im looking at puppies this weekend...
WE are the ones we've been waiting for
ReplyDeleteThis must be wave 2 as DK has posited
ReplyDeleteI'd forgotten about that ... DK was counting 76 to 84 as wave 1, right?
ReplyDeletedon't beat your self up here....your stuff rocks and just keep on....just remember when you make bad trades you usually know right away when wrong... have lost a lot more than 3% by not selling when I knew I made a mistake...one of my best friends always has the line, when I make a bad trade I become a long term investor...
ReplyDeleteYou did say she was a model, and if you hadn't said that, I'd say she should be a model!!
ReplyDeleteWhat a beauty!
Best of luck with transitioning to an empty nest ... mine are 11 and 7, so the chaos seems very different to what an empty next will feel like. Glad you are looking at puppies. Actually we got a Havanese pup last year that we are too busy for, you can have her if you want ... very loyal dogs, she follows here master around all the time, loves to be near her to her owners. owner.
Early July bottom makes sense to me... August feels too far away... would also tell you to watch out for what I call "the statement effect" most people that have advisors don't really pay attention day to day---given that this would be the first big loss in about 10 months even for asset allocated portfolios... would look for weekness around the 5th-8th business day of june....maybe divergent bottom like last year would be great for longs towards the end of June..but agreed everything looks like crap...staying short and will let the knife catchers wear themselves out.
ReplyDelete