Friday, February 24, 2012

New 52 Week Highs Flash A Warning

As we all know, when a market is in a bullish cycle it stands to reason that with each new day some of the stocks in that index attain a new 52 week high.  When the market re-opens for the next trading day, the number of stocks hitting a new 52 week high is reset to zero and we start counting all over again.  And naturally, when that same equities market reaches its ultimate peak for that cycle, those stocks which were strongest will begin to decline as well.  In other words, if the market puts in a peak and begins to decline, the number of new 52 week highs will decline with it... always.

But what happens when the market is surging and yet the number of new 52 week highs begins to decline anyway?  That's a very serious (and reliable) signal that something is going wrong with the market internals.  In fact, that's when the Hindenburg Omen indicator sits up in its chair and starts taking notes.  As a matter of interest, this metric of 'the number of new 52 week highs' is one of the components of the HO indicator.  On that topic, by now all my followers know that I have an ongoing post regarding the Hindenburg Omen on this site as well as one which I've been conducting at Seeking Alpha for 28 straight months.  I purposely let those two posts go quiet when there is basically nothing to say on the topic.  That way, when I 'do' update those HO posts readers realize that most likely something is brewing and the update is worth reading... it won't likely be idle chatter.  My friends like to chat (I've never been accused of that though) but the HO posts are one place where we keep that to a minimum, at least until the HO once again becomes a relatively hot topic.  The chart below indicates that day may be fast approaching:

A serious negative divergence is setting up between the New 52 Week Highs and the NYSE.  Click here for live and updating version.
This daily chart shows the NYSE as well as the 7 day moving average of the number of new 52 week highs it generates (orange line).  The line representing 'the new 52 weeks highs' has been made invisible in order to reduce the noise.  It has become abundantly clear now that the number of new highs has begun to decline even as the market continues to melt ever
higher.  This is a relatively rare event which occurs when the market is losing leadership.  It begins to rise "unnaturally".  This is where a critic might jump in and say something like "No leadership?  You're off your rocker AR.  Have you never heard of AAPL?"  All I can do is simply point out that AAPL is just one company and contrary to popular belief, it cannot carry the entire NYSE all by itself.  We are talking about the entire broad market here.  As one commenter said the other day (my apologies that I don't remember who you are or where I read it or I'd give you credit), "AAPL is the first publicly traded religion".

Be that as it may, as you can see, normally when the market heads lower the number of new highs naturally heads lower with it.  But when we see the number of new highs begin to decline before the market does, we know that internal weakness is building.  How can a market continue to melt up when its leaders are no longer advancing?  Are we to believe that for some reason investors are selling their winners and rotating their cash into weaker stocks?  I don't think so!  So there isn't much point for bullish investors to argue against a warning like this.  It's nothing less than realistic evidence that things aren't quite what the seem on the surface.

Not to sound alarmist though, I can also show you one case where this very same phenomenon occurred in December of 2010 and ultimately didn't turn out to a hill of beans.  Clicking this link will take you to the same chart as above, but over a two year time span.  The annotations on the chart will be slightly distorted but that's ok, I just want to show you the December 2010 instance, the only occasion in the past two years where a divergence like this amounted to nothing.   In all other instances when the 52 week highs began to decline, the market had already begun to decline a day or two earlier.  Again, the status that we're seeing today is not a signal that a top is in.  But it is a signal that the market is not nearly as robust as you may think.  Ultimately, on this topic by far the greatest monitor is the Hindenburg Omen which takes this metric (plus more) completely into account.  But keep in mind, that by virtue of it's cautious nature (reluctance to issue false signals), the HO will almost assuredly be late.  Please feel free to bookmark the HO page and check in from time to time as we move forward.  I'm quite confident you'll be seeing an update there in the coming days.  When you do... stay tuned because at the very least, things will get interesting.

Best of luck to almost all of you  :-)




144 comments:

  1. Thanks for another great post...You are one of the few people that actually references the HO rules correctly, making it always worth the read. Have a great weekend.

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  2. AR, nice work as always. I have looked at your site for awhile now and I like your style. Tim Horton's is winning the donut wars per MSM. But you already knew that. lol. Thanks for your work.

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  3. Ha!  Love the closing statement at the end of the article...almost missed it.  Speaking of HO...did you catch  ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan today on CNBC reaffirming his recession call?  You could have heard a pin drop in that studio.  Last time he was on the show they all giggled at his claims and poked fun at his "black box" work.  Today they were dead freakin' serious....minus of course the nervous laughter.  Personally I think he is dead nuts right.  We will know in the fullness of time.

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  4. Good post.
    The 52wk NYSE highs, its not something I have followed before. I have added that to my own list, and will keep eye on it. It certainly seems from your chart that when its below the '75' line that is pretty much a time to not be short any more. Will keep that in mind this summer, when we do get a sell off.

    Good wishes AR

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  5. My pleasure man.  I'm happy that you check it out once in a while.  Idaho, right?  I meet so many people that it's a bit difficult to memorize all of them, but I try.  I'm actually pretty good at it but still....

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  6. Thanks Scotty.  Yeah, it drives me nuts to see some wingnut blogger who always wants to be the first to declare "the HO has gone off!  The HO has gone off!" at a time where it was broken and in the shop... not even "able" to issue a signal.  Then the media gets a hold of it and the market just keeps surging higher.  As a result everybody pooh-poohs the HO as a lame-duck useless indicator.  Nonsense, it's a gem.  You know what the problem is?  It's Maria!

    A great weekend to you as well bud.

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  7. WELL HELLO A R;

    NICE TO BE ABLE TO READ YOUR INTELLIGENT COMMENTS WITH OTHERS WHO HAVE RESPECT FOR OTHERS.

    I FOUND THAT C R AND YOURSELF , WITH ABOUT A DOZEN OR SO OTHERS , WERE THE MINORITY OF THOSE WHO USE THEIR INTELLIGENCE AND GOOD MANNERS TO INFORM WITH A POSITIVE CIVIL ATTITUDE ON ANOTHER SPOT IN THE COMPUTER INFORMATION ECONOMIC AREA .

    THAT IS AVAILABLE TO ONE WHO WOULD SEARCH OUT THOSE WHO MIGHT BE ABLE TO BRING A DIFFERENCE OF OPINION AND HAVE A CIVIL DISCUSSION TO LEARN FROM ONE ANOTHER AND SHARE IN AN EARNEST MANNER TO THE UNDERSTANDING FOR ENLIGHTENMENT OF POSSIBLE PROFIT IN THE WORLD OF INVESTMENTS .

    ALL OF THE VERY BEST TO YOU MY NORTHERN NEIGHBOR , FROM THE WESTERN FRONT . D-KNOX.  

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  8. HELLO A R ;

    JUST ONE SLIGHT COMMENT .

    I WAS LOOKING FOR 1315-1320 WHEN THE SPX WAS ON THE 1270 AREA .

    I THOUGHT THE POSSIBLE AREA OF 1360-1370 WAS ATTAINABLE AND COULD BE REACH IN THE LATER DAYS IN FEB 2012 .

    I HAVE THE THOUGHT THAT WHILE THESE PRICE LEVELS MIGHT BE REACHED , THE OVER ALL MAJOR INDEX'S WHERE PLACING THEMSELVES INTO A ROLLING TOP THAT WOULD TAKE TIME TO UNFOLD .

    MUCH AS THE 2007 TOP THAT I SAW AS A POSSIBLE OUT COME IN AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER OF 2007 , THAT THOSE TOP'S MIGHT PROVE TO BE THE TOPS IN THAT PRESENT BULL MARKET , MOVING OVER A OCT TO DEC TIME PERIOD.

    THAT NOW MAY WELL BE PRESENT AT THIS POINT IN TIME WITHIN THE MAJOR MARKET INDEX'S THAT ARE STILL MOVING OVER IN THIS POINT IN TIME . ONLY TIME WILL TELL ?

    THE FEDERAL RESERVE HAS UNNATURALLY MANUFACTURED A TEMPORARY BULL MARKET WITH THE MASSIVE INJECTION OF FUNDS IN THE LARGEST BANKS HERE WITHIN THE U.S.A. AND IN THE LARGEST INTERNATIONAL BANKS THAT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PLACE THESE FUNDS NOT INTO THE GENERAL BANKING AREA , BUT INTO THE INVESTMENTS MARKETS HERE AND ELSE WHERE , IN STOCKS AND COMMODITIES .

    HOWEVER , THAT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LONG LASTING NOR IS IT ABLE TO BE ON GOING , UNLESS GREATER AND GREATER INJECTIONS OF CAPITAL IS USE . THAT IS HOWEVER AGAIN A TEMPORAL CONDITION THAT SOON REDUCES THE ECONOMIC BEFITS , UNLESS AGAIN GREATER CAPITAL IS AGAIN INJECTED .

    THE FALSE DATA THAT IS PRODUCED BY THE VARIOUS GOVERNMENT AGENCIES ARE ALSO REDUCING THE TRUTH OF THE REAL CONDITION OF THE REAL TRUE ECONOMY .

    THAT SOON CALLS INTO QUESTION BY OTHERS AS TO HOW ,  IF EMPLOYMENT IS INCREASING , HOW IS IT THAT THE TAX COLLECTION BY THOSE WHO ARE COUNTED AS BEING EMPLOYED SHOW NO INCREASE , BUT IS STILL SHOW'S   DECLINES ? 

    PUTTING ALL OF THE PIECES OF THE EVIDENCE TOGETHER IS WHAT ONE NEEDS TO BE MINDFUL , FOR WITHOUT ALL OF THE INFORMATION THAT IS TRUE AND PROVABLE , IT WILL ONLY LED ONE TO MAKE A FALSE CONCLUSION.  

      D-KNOX.

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  9. A.R. good post but this is an alarm that one should consider before investing further.... The link that showed the longer time frame can be subject to many different interpretations however imo in a healthy market equities in general should move in tandem with its index with some varying to +/- of deviation extremities...  When the market gets into the boundaries of either side of the extremes you will witness market movers resources in action in one of two things accumulation or distribution... Hence you have the NYHIGH showing divergence and then catching up as selective rotation in and out of smaller market cap equities get the pump and dump play...  All in all when you have more 52 highs and the index remains rather flat it shows $ quietly coming out of big caps and dumped into equities that in all likeliness (were negative performers and or run down) have no value at all...
    Conspire or not to conspire... If you was BIG MONEY what would you do? The game will be kept going until all of their money is positioned correctly to be preserved and or profit from a downturn... Everyone is a bagholder! The only difference is we have weak hands... IMHO when large divergences happen - yes the indicator can firm up again before a full roll over - its predictive a large event in the horizon.... Good job bro... Apologies for lack or respect towards grammar and punctuation laws....

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  10. You are correct sir. lol. I was reading a bit on the new highs indicator and like some of the other indicators they do lag some. This is not to be critical but to adjust my trades forwards in an anticipation of such outcomes. One thing comes to light in the NDX is the tail wag that takes place. The current delta on the NDX April 2200 puts are .07 (93% chance of NOT happening). Noting that the prior 3 months calls within each month that start with a .08 delta all cleared this mark. Conversely, last year the puts seemed to react the same way. This is just an observation. So with your analysis in hand (new highs, currency pairs, commodities, etc) I do think that tail wag in the other direction could happen. I do think this maybe a few weeks aways. I lurk on this site frequently, lol. Remember April is when the bears break out of hibernation in your neck of the woods. Once again, thank you for your work.

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  11. Thankyou for the explanation. My background is macro-economics (you
    won't find many better ;) ), but since I got back into looking at the
    equity/capital markets 3 years ago, I've been learning so much from all
    you chart-maniacs  ;)



    I even started up my own blog just last week. After a long break from
    online publishing, I thought it was time to be part of the regulars
    here. Even after 3 years, there is still so much to learn about standard
    chart analysis.



    *it remains a truly disturbing thought to realise that 99% of the
    retail/investors merely gain their insight from the clown channels. 



    I consider myself lucky to not be amongst the deluded masses, and I hope
    I can help add something to the overall analysis out there in the
    months ahead. One thing is for sure.....it won't be boring.



    Good wishes from the Bunker

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  12. (seems I'm having Disqus issues, apologies if this is a repeat post)
    I've been forkin' around:
    http://rationalinsolvency.com/2012/02/spdrs022412.png
    More here.

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  13. You'd be surprised at who is lurking out there reading all these blogs. I'm sure Rogers, Schiff (you know the type), must be regularly taking a browse around the murky corners of the financial web. They sure didn't get their education/background from following the mainstream sites/TV.
    -

    Over the last few years, I am kinda surprised at how many webmasters have allowed their sites to get destroyed from the inside out. Considering the state of things - 'we' know what the reality is, I'm even beyond the point of generally putting up with anything other than my own 'reality' viewpoint. To be clear, you know, the 'clown channel'  'Everything is great, did you not see the jobless numbers this morning?'. People touting different near term minor differences is fine with me, but...I'm bemused how so many are so tolerant of the deluded maniacs (even if many of them are just spiteful little trollers).
    -

    Anyway, tis late. Sunday is Oscar night, so thats gotta be good for dow +125pts on the futures wheel right ?

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  14. HELLO A R;

    THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND REPLY'S , WITH YOUR VERY FINE DETAILED ANALYSIS ON THE PRESENT PROBLEMS WITH THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND THE BIG BANKS BEGGING , TO BE SAVED , THAT ARE FAILED ENTITIES , WITH THEIR TOXIC WASTE FILLING THEIR OVER FLOWING VAULTS .

    YOUR RIGHT ON ABOUT THE MONEY CREATION WITH THE DEBT CYCLE NOW OUT OF CONTROL .

    FOR IF THE FEDERAL RESERVE WERE TO STOP THEIR ACTIVITY . A MASSIVE TSUNAMI WILL COME CRASHING OVER THIS NATION  AND OTHERS . THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK , HAS NOW TAKEN TO HEART THE OLD BEN MANNER OF INFLATING THE MONEY SUPPLY AND PASSING AROUND A MASSIVE 1 TRILLION EURO'S IN POSSIBLE DEBT BY PRINTING THE PROCESS THAT WE HAVE USED FOR NOW SOME 4 YEARS .

    SMALL BUSINESS'S IN THE U.S.A., CAN NOT OBTAIN LOANS FOR THEIR BUSINESS 'S , FROM THEIR LOCAL BANKS .

    THEY HAVE NOW GONE TO THE CASH HOUSE , WERE THEY ARE ABLE TO PURCHASE A LOAN OF ONE YEAR LOAN FROM ANYWHERE IN INTEREST RATES OF 90% TO 110% IN MONEY TO BE LOANED OUT FOR 1 YEAR , THE CASH HOUSE ARE TAKING A PERCENTAGE OF THE BUSINESS , IN UNDERWRITING THE LOAN ,  TO INSURE THEIR REPAYMENT OF THE LOAN ?

    THIS I DID RECENTLY READ ON A WEB SITE EARLIER THE MORNING . 

    THE MOB IN NEW YORK , NOW HAS SOME COMPETITION .

    IF THESE STATEMENTS ARE THE TRUTH , WE AS A NATION OF SMALL BUSINESS'S , WILL SOON DESTROY OURSELVES .

    AS A SMALL BUSINESS CAN NOT FOR LONG PAY THE INTEREST RATES DEMANDED FOR THE LOANS THEY SEEK, AT THOSE  INTRUST RATES AND WILL ONLY END UP LOSING WHAT EVER THEY HAVE INVESTED AS A BUSINESS .

    THE ARTICLE ON THE HINDENBURG OMEN , THAT YOU WROTE ABOUT , WAS VERY INTERESTING ,

    I LEARNED ABOUT THIS YEARS AGO , AND I KEEP WONDERING , WHY IT WAS NOT WORKING , AS IT USED TO DO SO.

    I HAD THOUGHT THAT THE MIX OF THE ETF'S , BONDS  AND OTHER CREATIONS THAT ARE REALLY NOT THE COMMON STOCKS OF INDIVIDUAL COMPANIES THAT USED TO MAKE THE HINDENBURG OMEN , WOULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON HOW IT NEEDS TO NOW BE OF USE .

    THE FACTORS HAVE NOW CHANGED TO WERE I WILL NOW FOLLOW YOUR LED AND HAVE BOOKMARKED THAT SITE . I THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR YOUR ABILITY TO FOLLOW THIS INDICATOR AND TO PUBLISHED IT WHEN IT DOES GAVE A SIGNAL . AS YOU NOTED IT MAY WELL BE DELAYED WHEN GIVEN .

    IT IS ANOTHER PIECE OF THE PUZZLE. CALLED THE SONG OF THE STOCK MARKET . 

    ALL THE VERY BEST TO YOU . D-KNOX.

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  15.  Good eye. Some of us post with all caps beause  we're literally about half blind. Several years ago, I became convinced that everyone was using number six font... typed with a worn-out typewriter ribbon. (If you remember the days of typewriter ribbons, you know what I'm talking about.)

     Tri-focals for me, these days, w/ early stage glacoma and early stage macular degeneration. Even at 200% zoom, I can barely see what I'm typing on the screen. That's not an excuse for my frequent typos. ...I was a piss-poor typist to begin with. ;)

     But, like many others on the net, half blind or not, I like to stay informed...and I'm still fool enough that I think I can contribute something constructive once in awhile. (Knox's comments have been relevant and timely.)

     Another blog owner - and their commenters - would've been all over Knox for 'yelling.' So...good eye.

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  16. Hi Zim.  I don't think you've posted here before as ZimZeb.  Disqus did indeed take it upon itself to deem your link as possible spam and your comment went into the spam bin.  When I spotted it there, of course I approved it and immediately it was published (below).  I then gave "ZimZeb" the "whitelist" treatment.  According to the instructions from Disqus, that should give you clearance and the Disqus spam patrol will never bother you again.  "Zim" had already been given that clearance.  So don't be frustrated, this should pave the way for you on this site for good.  At least that's the way it's supposed to work.

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  17. http://www.rationalinsolvency.com/2012/02/djusdb022612.png

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  18. Hahaha... yes I remember typewriter ribbons.  Rather than take 'spares' in high school, I took typing classes.  For 3 years I did that I think.  I went all through high school without ever having taken a "spare".  I considered them a waste of time.  So I got to be able to type at 75 wpm for 5 minutes straight with no errors, and 90 wpm at warp speed but with a couple of errors that would bring the score back down to 75. 

    But it was because of the fact that we couldn't correct our work very easily, nor 'cut and paste' that was the real reason I never pursued writing.  Writing is so much easier with these here computer gizmos.

    I wear glasses too these days.  At one time I had spectacular vision in one eye and lousy vision in the other.  So I never was the greatest hitter in baseball because I didn't really see with 'binocular' vision.  But my good eye is weakening fast now.  It doesn't want to focus on the close-up stuff.  It's also getting blurry so I can't see to infinity very clearly now.  The stars are just a blur now rather than a sharp point of light.  But I sure recognize a pretty woman when I see one.

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  19. It's no hassle for 'me' Zimmer.  Disqus is just a bitch sometimes.  At least I take whatever steps are offered to make sure the participants here don't get raped by Disqus as we have seen can happen.  I just wish all blog owners would at least "try".

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  20.  HELLO WBONESTEEL ;

    I READ OF YOU EYE PROBLEMS , THEY ARE SERIOUS INFECTIONS THAT CAN LEAD TO BLINDNESS , AS I HAVE ONE FRIEND WHO DID GO BLIND WITH THE SAME .

    MY FAMILY HAD GLACOMA , I AM BEING TESTED FOR IT EACH YEAR . I HAVE MACULAR DEGENERATION , THE TYPE THAT CAN NOT BE TREATED OR OPERATED UPON .

    I HAVE CATARACT'S , AND THEY CAN NOT BE OPERATED UPON , BECAUSE OF THE M.D.

    BUT IN THE GOOD BOOK , IT SAYS A LITTLE RAIN MUST FALL , IT FALLS UPON THE RIGHTEOUS AS WELL AS UPON THE UNRIGHTEOUS.

    I CALL LIFE , THE VICISSITUDES OF LIFE . THERE IS A CYCLE OF ABOUT 7 YEARS , IN THE VARIOUS CYCLES OF LIFE , AS ONE GROWS IN AGE , THE CHANGES ARE CYCLES .

    THERE ARE CYCLES OF THE 4 SEASONS .

    IN THE COURSE OF HUMAN EVENTS , WHEN A NATION RISES OUT OF BEING IN A OPPRESSED FORM OF SLAVERY , THEN BREAKING OUT AND UPWARD INTO A DEVELOPMENT OF LEAVING A DICTATORSHIP AND MOVING THROUGH THE VARIOUS STAGES OF IT'S CYCLE THAT ULTIMATELY LED BACK INTO SLAVERY AND A TOTALITARIAN FORM OF GOVERNMENT .

    LIKE THE OLD SAYING , WHAT GOES AROUND , COMES AROUND .

    WE ALL ARE SEEKING TRUTH .

    THAT IS WHY I AM HERE . I AM SEEKING , WHAT SOME ONE ELSE HAS TO SAY ABOUT THE MARKET.,  A STOCK , A COMMODITY OR THE ECONOMIC CONDITIONS THAT THEY SEE AND ARE EXPERIENCING FOR THEMSELVES . TRYING TO SEEK THE ANSWERS THAT MIGHT BRING ABOUT A BETTER WAY OF LIFE , NOT ONLY FOR OURSELVES , BUT FOR OTHERS AS WELL.

    THANK YOU FOR SHARING , HAVE A WONDERFUL YEAR IN 2012. D-KNOX.

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  21.  WSJ, iPhone's Crutch of Subsidies. Feb 22, 2012.

     iow, Apple has an Achilles Heel.

     What happens when Apple no longer receives discounts for using WiFi?

     If your business model relies upon access to someone else's infrastructure...sooner or later, you'll have real problems. (Netflix, anyone?)

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  22. Yeah, at yet  another " level of suspense".  SnP 1370 (1376 ?), Nasdaq 3000, Dow 13000.  And the market is showing
    several minor divergences.  All pointing to a possible short term top.  Could it turn into something more sinister...sure.
    But for now a break of 1350 is all the bears can hope for.

    Thinking out loud... All the FX people i follow (except for one) are long term bullish on the DX.  And i see their point of view.
                                 But there is one possible outcome of the Euro mess that doesn't necessarily square with this logic. Is the 
                                 Fed the ultimate back stop for Europe.  Of course it is.  And there are several reasons to believe that
                                 the EU will not be able to contain the melt down.  
                                 The ECB cannot do what the Fed can do from a monetary  point of view.  Plus there is every reason
                                  to believe that the EU will not be able to act with the decisiveness needed to deal with their problems.
                                  A European melt down will trigger an all out response from the Fed.  That response will put strong
                                  pressure on the dollar  send commodities soaring, bond yields higher and that will tank equities 
                                  world wide.  I don't see this happening, if at all, until 2013-14.  Yet, there are signs  it has already begun.




                                 

                                 

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  23. not this one!   the words are all there just a little fragmented : ]

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  24. I've been wondering about that.  In fact, I asked you that question a while ago but you missed it.  Is there no edit button available to you?

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  25. I haven't been watching the EWT charts very closely, but I've seen where a few people are talking about  the markets stumbling along for as much as another year before it drops in the crapper. I don't think we'll have quite that long to wait, myself.

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  26. Who knows ?  I think a short term  correction ( one that lasts 4-6 weeks ) is very near.  Divergences 
    are best served pronounced.  Just think what ever correction we get gets bought setting up  real divergences.

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  27. http://www.rationalinsolvency.com/2012/02/dax022712ida.gif

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  28. Morgan Stanley Is The Rosetta Brick - Part 2
    http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2012/02/morgan-stanley-is-rosetta-brick-part-2.html 

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  29. HELLO TO AR AND MY GENTLEMAN FRIEND D KNOX.  GOOD TO SEE YOU ENJOYING WONDERFUL COMPANY HERE.  I REMAIN SHORT THE RUT AND AM UNDERWATER BECAUSE OF MY OWN STUBBORN EGO.  LIVE AND LEARN I GUESS... BE WELL MY FRIENDS!

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  30. Edited simply to clean up those spaces.  No worries Iriquois, I edit absolutely "nothing" anybody wants to say.  But that particular comment was a bit annoying to read.  I realize it wasn't your fault either, lol.

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  31. Nice piece as always, AR. I couldn't agree more.  We're also coming up on 1381.50, a .786 retracement of the 1576 to 666 decline.  This Gartley was largely thought to have played out last May, although we came up 11 points shy of the target.  I expect a reaction this time, as well -- especially since we also completed a big Butterfly pattern earlier this morning.

    I know some of these concepts are a little unfamiliar to some, so I devoted a page over at pebblewriter for those who'd like to know more.  http://pebblewriter.blogspot.com/2012/02/gartley-patterns-explained-february-28.html   GLTA.

    PW

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  32. Thank you AR! I am honored you see the sweetness within me.

    One of the things I really like about you is that you appear to be a solid person sure of his convictions and knows that etiquette is strength and a sign of character and refinement.
    Yes the RUT just doesn't seem to be doing much as of late, and as far as the market generally, I think the thing to look for is Europe.  Greece is far from being out of the woods, in fact it never will be the way things are now. 

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  33. Thanks DL... for sure, I'd rather live in a world where people are genuinely nice to each other.  Basically that's what life is like in Canada and I'm starting to realize that perhaps that isn't the norm.  I'm starting to recognize that maybe I've been spoiled by that fact and expect too much.  But I'm not gonna change my ways.  In order to be loved, one has to be loveable.  Like you for example.  Besides, life is just better that way.

    I agree about Europe as well.  I think that whatever lies before us, we'll see in in Europe first.  Like the hikes in interest rates that are happening there but not here... yet.  I think many of those countries crumble first.  They'll see rates soar and their equities markets tank before ours I think.  Maybe it all happens more or less simultaneously but I think Bernanke can keep rates in the US down at low levels for longer than Europe can.  That's mainly where I see the lag.  So the US dollar should start to show serious strength going forward... at least that's the way I see it.  I could be wrong about that but I think it's kind of logical that since most of the debt in the world is denominated in US dollar, that when credit contraction gets rolling there will be fewer and fewer dollars available to purchase in order to pay off that debt.  But I've been putting that theory forward for two years now and it hasn't come to fruition yet.  Maybe I'm wrong.  If I am, then the deflationary scenario isn't going to happen at all.  How in heck is that possible?  It isn't!

    Anyway, on that topic, that's the reason I wrote that piece called .  Even though the article is 2 months old now, the theory is just as valid today as when I wrote it.  You might want to check that one out.  The links will open charts that have been updated so they'll be current.  That's the same story with everything you might want to peruse here.  The charts will always be current and the theories are still valid.

    Keep smilin'.  It's nice when you drop in here. 

    How's this for a big horsie?

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  34. HELLO A R AND MS. D L .

    I HAVE WAITED FOR EVENTS TO TRANSPIRE , BEFORE PLACING A COMMENT HERE ON THIS VERY FINE COMMENT AREA THAT I VALUE .

    WOW , OUR D L IS HERE !   HOW NICE IT IS , AND ARE YOU STILL MY VALENTINE ? WHAT WITH ALL OF THOSE YOUNG GUYS LURKING ABOUT ?  , I KNOW C R IS AROUND AND I WILL VISIT , HIS  SPOT AND LEAVE MY 2 CENTS WORTH THERE ALSO !

    D L , I LIKE YOUR $RUT SHORT , IT IS SIGNALING A PULL BACK AS DID THE FOLLOWING 4 MAJOR INDEX'S TODAY .

     THE SPX , INDU,  COMPQ AND THE NYSE . ALL OF THESE HAD AN OUTSIDE DAY TO THE DOWN SIDE WITH HEAVIER VOLUME THAN USUAL . THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE $RUT THAT DID HAVE THE SAME OUTSIDE DAY TO THE DOWN SIDE . THE NDX 100 DID NOT MAKE IT AN OUTSIDE DAY TO THE DOWNSIDE , AS IT DID NOT CLOSER LOWER THAT THE PREVIOUS DAY'S CLOSE .

    AN OUTSIDE DAY TO THE DOWNSIDE , IS WHERE A STOCK OR INDEX TRADES HIGHER AND SELL'S LOWER THAT THE PREVIOUS DAY OPEN , HIGH AND LOW OF THE DAY .  THESE WERE ALSO ON HEAVY VOLUME , A PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM FOR MOST OF THESE TYPE OF SIGNAL'S CAN LAST A WEEK OR SO , WHEN THEY ARE TO THE DOWN SIDE . AN UPSIDE DAY , IS JUST THE APPOSITE .

    I HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE INDEX'S TO SIGNAL THE CONTINUING OF THEIR ROLLING OVER , AND TODAY MAY WELL HAVE PLACED THAT IN A 75 TO 80 PERCENTAGE OF THEIR ROLLING OVER  COMING ABOUT ?

    THIS , SIGNAL , ALONG WITH THE OTHER INDICATORS THAT I WATCH , COULD BE A SHORT TERM SIGNAL ONLY .

    I HAVE TO SAY THIS , THAT IS THE THE WAY I SEE THE INDEX'S AT THIS POINT IN TIME .

    EVENTS CAN CHANGE THE INDEX'S FORMATIONS TO THE POINT THAT THEY COULD MOVE MUCH LOWER THAN I EXPECT , BUT I TRY TO SEE ONLY ONE DAY AT A TIME , AND LET THE MARKET SING IT'S SONG , AS IT WILL DO WHAT IT WILL DO , NOT WHAT I WANT IT TO DO.

    ALL THE BEST TO YOU MY DEAR D L AND TO YOU A R , WITH YOUR FINE COMMENT'S AND ANALYSIS A R. . D-KNOX..

    ReplyDelete
  35. Hi Pebble.  Geez man... this Disqus is goofy sometimes because I could swear I was on this page just 3 hours ago and your comment wasn't there.  In any case, thanks for creating that page for us.  I wonder if you would consider doing me one more small favour?  The chart that you attached is a daily that covers nearly 5 years.  Could you reduce the time covered to about 1.5 years, but keep your fib. lines and labeling?  I'd like to examine it up close and personal so I can see more clearly what it is you're seeing.  I hate to ask you but I'm determined to get a better understanding of the crab.  If you don't have time, that would be 100% fine as well.  You're still one of the top dogs in my world regardless.  Thanks for this contribution bud.

    ReplyDelete
  36. http://rationalinsolvency.com/2012/02/spx15w030112.png

    1267.06-1158.67=108.39
    1284.62-1202.37=84.25
    1333.47-1277.58=55.89
    1363.40-1335.92=27.48

    108.39 > 84.25 > 55.89 > 27.48

    1267.06-1202.37=64.69
    1284.62-1277.58=7.04
    1335.92-1333.47=2.45
    1363.81-1363.40=0.41

    64.69 > 7.04 > 2.45 > 0.41

    ReplyDelete
  37.  Hey, AR.  Sorry it took me a while to see this.  Glad to oblige.  The charts below cover shorter time periods.   The smaller pattern with the red Fib lines is a Butterfly -- characterized primarily by a Point B at the .786 Fib level and extending out a Point D at either the 1.272 or 1.618 level. 

    A Crab is essentially the same, but with a Point B anywhere from the .382 to .886 level and typically extending out to the 1.618 level.  It can extend to higher Fib levels, too, like 2.0, 2.24, 2.618, 3.0, 3.618 etc.  (AAPL, for instance.) 

    There are also relationships between the BC and CD legs to be considered, but I'll cover those in upcoming articles on my blog and give you a heads up when I do. 

    Glad to see the blog doing so well and populated by some of my favorite people from Danerics.  Keep up the great work!

    p.s.  the third chart shows a shorter-term Gartley from last fall that played out really well.  It's labeled clearly, including the rules involved in Gartley patterns.  I try to identify these things as they come along, so will try to post some here from time to time, too.  Enjoy!

    ReplyDelete
  38. This isn't exactly another fractal analog, but I thought it was fun nonetheless.http://rationalinsolvency.com/2012/03/mirror.gif 
    (animated)

    ReplyDelete
  39. My apologies Zim, but when I got in tonight, once again I found your comment in the spam bin.  Even though you are "whitelisted", which according to Disqus should give you a green light to 'bypass' their spambots, Disqus is still being ignorant with your links.  Maybe it doesn't like gifs?  In any case it's posted now.  It's a pretty fascinating piece of work but I have to admit, I'm not exactly following what you've done.  Are you attaching an analog from a time in the past?

    ReplyDelete
  40. Disqus must have flagged me based upon IP address--I can't post at all over at Daneric's.  So I don't think it has anything to do with you.
    The gif is just trying to illustrate that the move off of yesterday's high looks like an accelerated mirror image of the move up to it.  *Trying* ...

    ReplyDelete
  41. For giggles:
    http://rationalinsolvency.com/2012/03/spxanalog030212.png 

    ReplyDelete
  42. I seem to have identical trouble with this account (registered with a real email address).

    Enjoyed your ISDA comment in response to DL.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Cool AR--hopefully that'll be the end of any necessary wrangling on your end.  Wish I knew why Disqus decided to start flagging me...

    http://rationalinsolvency.blogspot.com/2012/03/3-mar-djia.html

    http://rationalinsolvency.com/2012/03/djia030312ff.png

    http://rationalinsolvency.com/2012/03/djiaFCanalog030312.png

    ReplyDelete
  44. Like the Sober Look. 

    http://soberlook.com/2012/03/eib-now-wants-to-be-senior-like-ecb.html

    ReplyDelete
  45.   Hi Alberta



    Well, I'm trying to be more balanced right now. I'm battling away to
    form a variety of outlooks. I remain VERY
    concerned the maniacs will somehow manage another market blast-off from the IWM
    76/74 zone sometime later this month.



    I can only imagine - not least if the Greeks decide to pay their
    main interest payment (March 20th?). Then there is the issue of whether the Bernanke
    will do more QE (probably via a trillion of MBS purchases). That'd also
    stick it to the bears - not least to yours truly.



    For part'1, see: http://permabeardoomster.blogs...



    Good wishes for rest of the weekend

    *hope its okay to note my little page here occasionally, if not, let me know, and I'll not post it again.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Thanks for all the disqus background info.  I believe it was over at Daneric's that I first noticed an issue.  One evening I responded to a couple of other comments without incident, but then when I added a new one at the root level, it disappeared after a few minutes.  Locked out since.  Your flag theory seems a likely culprit.

    I'm not sure how to give a complete answer to the "But What If?" but I guess my short answer is that I've increasingly started leaning to a vaguely similar scenario.  I think the down and up legs would be of higher Elliott degree though.

    More long-windedly (and probably nonsensically), starting with my list of assumptions/opinions:
    1.  I don't think there was anything motive of Minor degree or higher between Mar 2009 and early 2011.
    2.  I think the decline from peak to trough in 2011 was an impulse.
    3.  I don't think the bounce from the Oct 2011 low to the Nov 2011 high was motive.
    4.  I was resistant to counting SPX 1158-1267 motively, but have come to see it that way.

    #1 means there's a relatively large amount of flexibility snapping together those subwaves.  Since we've exceeded the 2011 highs, #2 means the 2011 decline must have been a C wave, either of an expanded flat (as Pretzel has it labelled), or some much larger running flat dating back to Jan or Apr 2010.  If the former, the current wave (provided it eventually ends) isn't terribly out of proportion with Feb to Oct 2011.  If the latter, then the last five months and 300 SPX points are puny compared to both the mongongously-fugly (technical term) 12-15 month running flat and the 10-13 month ~500 point double or triple zigzag off the Mar 2009 low.

    Because the move from the Oct 2011 high to the Nov 2011 low failed to retrace a sufficient percentage (of the Oct 2011 advance) to be the B wave of a flat, #3 means we shouldn't expect the whole move up from the Nov 2011 low to be motive.  #4 means we should expect the move up from the Dec 2011 low to be motive, however. Even though I have near zero confidence in counting the internal subdivisions of this current wave up, I'm in the ending diagonal camp (and therefore the zigzag from 1158 camp; and therefore the double zigzag/double three from 1074 camp--the double zigzag being what Daneric has been forecasting for a few months now).

    So, while I think this:
    http://i40.tinypic.com/35lygyq.png
    fits the spirit, if not letter (pun intended, ha!) of the "But What If?" and is entirely possible, this:
    http://i39.tinypic.com/1562w7p.png
    is the vaguely similar scenario I've been considering more lately.

    Binve's the first one I saw calling for such a thing--within days of the 1074 low even, but I think his count has the current wave at one smaller degree (or, he's looking for a move up of one larger degree, if you'd prefer to think of it that way; aka net upside for a large number of months to a small number of years).

    I don't dismiss the Prechterian/Danerical/TBrosephious "down now" scenario out of hand.  From my perspective though, as the market stretches, that scenario becomes more and more of a stretch (growing imbalance between the 2007-2009 wave and everything since).  Regardless, if we're in an ED from 1202, a big sharp reversal is on deck.  One step at a time.

    Of course, others more experienced and better followed see things quite differently from my own subjective little EW view.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Thanks Rock D'Alberta.  Good info on the internals, merci!  Nice to have numbers backing up the general sense that something smells like sh*t in this "rally."

    ReplyDelete
  48. Thanks Zim.  You put a lot of effort into that comment.  Could you run it past me one more time though? lol

    When I wrote that "But What If" piece, what I was really doing was forcing myself to consider that the entire theory about a deflationary phase was wrong.  I was forcing myself to consider the impossibly bullish scenario.  I mean, we'd be talking about 20k on the Dow easily.  But by golly, if that's what it's gonna be, I'm going to get on board for the long ride higher and make money just like all the idiots who have permabull vision and no idea how much trouble the world is in.

    At the present time I'm still favoring the bearish scenario, at least to a certain extent.  A pullback is due, like right now.  I think we're already in it.  But how far it pulls back and whether or not we get a higher high (above 1380) afterwards should help clear up the picture.  In the meantime I've resorted to trading on micro scales... sniping using options.  Hell, when I can make 45% in a day or two I'm happy with that.  There was a time when I'd always have a profit in options and just see it slip away while I waited for the market to start obeying my rules.  These days, when I see a profit as small as 30% and there's even the slightest chance it's going to melt away on me... I take the profit and take a breather as well.  It's working well so I'm going to stick to that routine until I see more clearly what's on the horizon.  On one of 'em I made 99.2% in a day and was royally pissed that I didn't get a true double, lol.  And that asshole Wagner keeps saying "have you even got any skin in the game?".  If that prick only knew.

    ReplyDelete
  49. It's perfectly fine to post links to your own site.  I don't mind at all.  Some blog owners get really riled about it but I don't when it's a case of a good guy like yourself who has some good thoughts to offer.  I prefer to think of it as sharing rather than as pimping.  There is the odd guy who says nothing comment-wise and just posts a link to his blog which also says nothing.  I don't really like those ones.  But no worries... fire away.

    If it turns out that the maniacs are able to somehow pull another rabbit out of their asses, I don't see why we don't just go long with 'em and make some money that way.  I've been battling rising trends my whole trading life and it's pretty damned tough to survive when we do that.  Needless to say, I make a hell of a lot more money when the market is headed south because I'm very, very comfortable in that scenario... because that's the scenario that I perceive to be what nature wants.  There "should" be a deflationary outcome.  But if I'm wrong, I'm just going to end up trying to swim upstream yet again.  Not this time... if after a correction it becomes quite evident that the market is likely to make new highs, I'm going to jump on board that bull train with both feet.  And I'll be puking the whole time just because I'll know that it wouldn't be natural.  But if that's what we have to do... we might as well make hay when the sun shines and better prepare ourselves for the eventual crash which might be 5 years down the road after all.  I don't see that outcome, but I'll react bullishly if I see it developing.  I hope you can do something similar and prosper wildly.  Best of luck either way.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Congrats on the returns AR!

    Heh, no, I haven't given up on the deflationary case.  My comments were more aimed at reconsidering the deflationary TOMORROW case.  The futility of inflating out of the debt burdens doesn't preclude new highs.  I think that's all the EW jabber was getting at.  All just my own faulty opinions, of course.

    Like you've said, the nature of the coming pullback will provide useful information.  Embarrassingly, I said as much right after SPX 1202, thinking it was just the first leg of a larger wave.  It sure told us something...and it was not 99.2% for me!

    ReplyDelete
  51.  re: the Maniacs.

    Its clear that the Bernanke could easily do more QE, but I still get the sense that he won't get the political 'go ahead' (not that he needs it!) until we see a major sell off - at least to sp'1000. That was always my favoured outlook as early as last summer.

    The fact the Greek 1yr bond yield is now around 1000%, it says... DEFAULT. Its really that simple. So, bond market is saying Greeks won't actually pay the interest payment later this month. Now, that would be a significant development. I'd dare say the mainstream is not in the least bit prepared for that kinda news.

    Of course, if Greeks don't pay, why would any of the other PIIGS pay? Portugal remains the next problem.

    --
    Looking at transport daily chart.... 4950 - the 200 day MA would be a fair target. Transports certainly shows a bear flag right now, so..that should be confirmed either tomorrow or Tuesday.

    *A very sleepy Sunday here in London city, I wonder how the futures wheel will open later. Hmmm

    ReplyDelete
  52. I agree with absolutely everything you said above.  That comment really resonates with me, not only because everything you said is absolutely the truth, but also because I just finished doing a type of forecast this morning that I don't often do and it came up with a forecast that would fit your "favoured outlook" to a tee.  I'll be the first to admit that it's a method that doesn't really have a whole lot of science behind it but as far as I'm concerned, it's as valid as any wave count out there.  After all, both are speculating about future prices.  This time I really came at the forecast from a different angle, one which I've used before, and it resulted in a prediction that just seems so 'extreme' that I'm not even ready to publish it yet.  I want to see what the indicators on the weekly chart do this week because right now, they're pretty darned bullish looking.  But as I've written before, if we're truly in a secular bear market, then bear market rules apply as pertains to the indicators, and the weekly ones won't spend much time up here in overbought territory.  I still have to write something that goes with the chart.  But it calls for, are you ready for this... S&P at 1002 on June 27th.

    When I do the write up, I'll include about 5 different reasons why it fits in with so many 'requirements', such as the big crash you said Bernanke would need.  I fully agree with that aspect as well.  I have to go out now so I don't have time at the moment to do a write up.  I also want to see how the market behaves all next week before I'll be comfortable enough about the forecast possibly being correct before I'd opt to publish it.

    ReplyDelete
  53. The point I'd again emphasise, is that if we can break below sp'1240s -that kinda zone, that would take out almost all the key levels, and open the door straight to 1000.

    Now, there are endless people out there better than me, with more finer based targets. However, from what I've read, and concluded, the lower end 'bear target' would be around 940 -thats a key fib' level, and also matches up with a number of old support/resistance levels.

    The bear case -for a '3' wave would also demand a lower low than last October. I guess 1040 (also a key level) would suffice, although personally, I'd like to see 1000 broken (at least briefly), if only to confirm the longer term multi-year outlook.
    -

    A Bernanke' QE3 around June-August would make for a good wave'4 (175/200pt) higher into the early autumn.

    Its just one of the many possible scenarios of course, but its a pretty good one I believe.

    ReplyDelete
  54. HELLO A R;

    MY THOUGHTS ARE ALONG YOUR LINE OF THOUGHT .

    VIEWING AND HAVING STUDIED THE MAJOR INDEX'S AND LOOKING AT THE S&P 500 FOR HOURS ON END , IT'S MY FEELING THAT WE ARE DUE A PULL BACK .

    I HAD THOUGHT IT MIGHT BE THE START OF A MAJOR PULL BACK AND OF LONGER TERM  TIME FRAME AT THIS POINT IN TIME ?

    MY BASIC THOUGHT IS AFTER LOOKING AT THE 10 AND 20 YEAR S&P 500 CHARTS , IN THE MONTHS AND WEEKLY TIME FRAMES . THEN SHORTER AND SHORTER TIME FRAMES . I HAVE CHANGE MY MIND . I KNOW BELIEVE THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE A PULL BACK , BUT ONE OF PERHAPS 3 TO 6 WEEKS BEFORE TO MUCH LONGER AND THAT THE S&P 500 MIGHT SEE 1250 TO 1275 ON THE DOWN SIDE . THEN A NEW MOVE UPWARD TO NEW HIGHS , MOVING INTO THE AREA OF 1475 TO 1550 ON THE S&P 500 ,

    IF ONE STUDIES THE 2000 AND 2007 S&P 500 CHARTS , THERE WAS A PULL BACK AND THEN THE FINAL MOVE UPWARD TO MAKE NEW HIGHS WITH A ROLLING TOP FORMATION TAKING PLACE AND MY THOUGHT IS THAT IT WILL ONCE MORE REPRODUCE THAT SAME TYPE OF FORMATION ,

    WE ARE NOW VIEWING A ROLLING TOP FORMATION AS BOTH THE YEARS 2000 AND 2007 HAD THE SAME EFFECT AND IT'S VERY POSSIBLE IT WILL DO THE SAME YET AGAIN .

    THEN A SLIGHT PULL BACK , THEN A RESUMPTION OF A NEWER HIGH BEING MADE INTO THE 1400'S AND THEN A POSSIBLE MOVEMENT INTO THE PREVIOUS HIGH AREAS OF AROUND 1550 ON THE S&P 500 .

    THIS WILL TAKE TIME AS THEY DID IN 2000 AND 2007 .

    THE MONEY MAY WELL FLOW FROM EUROPE AND MOVE INTO OUR MARKETS LATER DUE TO THE WEAKNESS IN SOME OF THE MORE TROUBLED EURO NATIONS AND THAT MONEY WILL MOVE OUR DOLLAR AND INDEX'S WITH THE U.S. TREASURIES ALSO BEING PURCHASED FOR THEIR SUPPOSED SAFETY ?

    ONLY TIME WILL TELL ?

    HAVE A FINE WEEK ONE AND ALL . D-KNOX.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Yup, Bernanke already said that there wouldn't be any more QE for at least 3 months.  That would put us somewhere Junish.  Also, the market has gotten into the habit lately of putting in a solid reversal somewhere around July 1.  In 2009 and 2010 they were solid bounces.  In 2011 it was a top.  In any case, for some reason the Independence Day weekend seems to mark a turning point.  I say we fall until then. 

    Also, the markets just love big fat round numbers and for that reason I'm starting to think the 1000 mark will start to be recognized  about two months from now as being a probable magnet.  It just so happens that my calculations end up with the S&P at 1002 but I swear,  in no way did I have 1000 in mind.  The number 1002 just popped out of my calculation and that's when it dawned on me... the big fat round number might come into play in a big way.  We'll see, but for tonight it doesn't break my heart to see the futures in the red. 

    All the best in the coming week :-)

    ReplyDelete
  56. HELLO D. KNOX.  I AGREE THAT ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE, INCLUDING YOUR FORECASTS.  I'M PROBABLY LEANING MORE BEARISH THAN YOU ARE AT THIS TIME THOUGH, BUT I'M NOT HARD-HEADED ABOUT IT.

    THERE'S ONE STATEMENT YOU MADE THAT I'D PARTICULARLY LIKE TO REPLY TO.  YOU SAID THAT SOME OF THE MONEY FROM THE MORE TROUBLED EURO NATIONS MIGHT FLOW INTO OUR MARKETS.  I JUST WANTED TO POINT OUT THAT A LOT OF THAT MONEY WON'T BE FLOWING ANYWHERE BECAUSE IT WILL LITERALLY BE DISAPPEARING OFF THE FACE OF THE EARTH.  IF EUROPE DOES INDEED START TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF CREDIT CONTRACTION, A GREAT DEAL OF THE CURRENTLY EXISTING MONEY WILL BE EXTERMINATED FROM EXISTENCE BY THE VERY ACT OF PAYING BACK LOANS OR DEFAULTING ON LOANS.  THERE MAY NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF FREE MONEY TO SHIFT OUR WAY. 

    ReplyDelete
  57. HELLO ALBERTAROCKS ;

    YES YOU RIGHT ABOUT ANY EURO GOVERNMENT CENTRAL BANK FUNDS HEADED OUR WAY , VERY LITTLE OR NONE AT ALL WOULD BE EXPECTED .

    HOWEVER , MY THOUGHTS ARE THE INDIVIDUAL BANKS AND INVESTOR'S WHO HAS THE ASSETS AND THE WHERE WITH ALL TO MOVE THEIR FUNDS , WILL DO SO . MANY OF THE LARGE BANKS , WITH THEIR INVESTMENT SECTIONS ALONG WITH OTHER COMPANIES IN THE EURO , WILL MOVE OR HAVE STARTED TO MOVE THEIR FUNDS INTO OTHER PLACES WHERE SAFETY AND SECURITY OF THEIR FUNDS AND ASSETS WILL BE OF FIRST CONSIDERATION .

    THE SAFETY OF PRINCIPLE IS GOING TO FORCE THEIR MOVES AND THEY MAY WELL HAVE ALREADY BEEN  MOVING INTO THE NORTH AMERICAN MARKETS .

    THE FEDERAL RESERVE HAS PLACED SOME EURO BANKS ASSETS INTO THEIR VAULTS AND GIVEN OUT DOLLAR CREDIT FOR SUCH PLACEMENTS . WHERE THOSE DOLLARS ARE NOW AND WHAT ARE THEIR RESTING PLACE , IS ANY BODY GUESS .

    I CAN NOT BELIEVE THOSE BANKERS OVER THERE KEEPING A LOT OF THEIR FUNDS IN THE EURO, GIVEN THE INSIDE INFORMATION THAT THEY HAVE . THEY WILL LOOK OUT FOR THEMSELVES , AS THOSE BIG BANKERS  HAVE DONE SO IN THIS COUNTRY .

    THE REST OF US CAN GO TO HELL FOR ALL THEY CARE . THEY ARE NOT LENDING OUT THE TRILLIONS THEY RECEIVED FROM OLD BEN  AT THE FED RESERVE TO ANY SMALL OR MIDDLE SIZE COMPANY.

    THE BIGGEST AND LARGEST CORPORATIONS HAVE PUT ASIDE HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF U.S. DOLLARS IN SAFE PRINCIPLE OF ASSET CLASS'S TO INSURE THEIR SURVIVAL . 

    THEY HAVE WELL SEEN THE HAND WRITING ON THE WALL AND THEY KNOW THAT THE LIES AND DECEPTION  BEING PLACED INTO THE MEDIA CHANNELS FROM VARIOUS GOVERNMENT LEADERS FROM WHERE EVER , IS NOT WORTH THE PAPER IT'S PRINTED ON .

    THESE BANKS AND INVESTMENT HEADS ALONG WITH THE INDIVIDUAL WHO IS WORTH 100'S OF MILLIONS , WILL AND HAVE MOVED WHERE THEY NEED TO GO TO . THE SMALL INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR WHO HAS NOT DONE SO , MAY NOW WELL BE FORCED INTO ACTION OF MOVING THEIR ASSETS INTO NORTH AMERICA . THAT COULD WELL BE A SIZE ABLE AMOUNT , IF THEY ARE GOING TO DO SO.

    ALL THE BEST TO YOU A R AND THE OTHERS . D-KNOX .

    ReplyDelete
  58. Greece....


    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2012/mar/04/debt-crisis-eu

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/mar/05/eurozone-crisis-greek-debt-swap

    ReplyDelete
  59. YES I AGREE D. KNOX.  ANYBODY WHO HAS THE WHERE WITH ALL TO MOVE FUNDS WILL CERTAINLY BE INSPIRED TO DO SO AT SOME POINT.  AND YOU'RE RIGHT, THOSE FUNDS COULD WELL FIND THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTH AMERICAN MARKETS, MOSTLY AMERICAN I'M SURE.

    "I CAN NOT BELIEVE THOSE BANKERS OVER THERE KEEPING A LOT OF THEIR FUNDS
    IN THE EURO, GIVEN THE INSIDE INFORMATION THAT THEY HAVE . THEY WILL
    LOOK OUT FOR THEMSELVES , AS THOSE BIG BANKERS  HAVE DONE SO IN THIS
    COUNTRY."

    I SURE AGREE WITH THAT AS WELL.  I'VE COMMENTED MANY TIMES BACK WHEN THE US DOLLAR WAS SHOWING UNRELENTING WEAKNESS, THAT IT MADE NO SENSE WHATSOEVER FOR ANY FOREIGNER TO HAVE BEEN BUYING US EQUITIES BECAUSE ANY GAINS HE WOULD MAKE WOULD BE WIPED OUT BY LOSSES IN THE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR.  I THINK THAT SAME METRIC IS ABOUT TO UNFOLD IN EUROPE.  WITH THE EURO NOW SEEMINGLY HEADED LOWER, NO NORTH AMERICAN HAS ANY INCENTIVE NOW TO PURCHASE EUROPEAN STOCKS.  SO BY THE SAME TOKEN, YOUR THEORY IS PROBABLY BANG ON THE MONEY.  EVEN EUROPEANS WILL LIKELY BE TAKING A DOUBLE HIT IF THEY KEEP THEIR MONEY IN EUROPEAN EQUITIES.  THE EQUITIES FALL AND THE VALUE OF THEIR CURRENCY FALLS.

    ReplyDelete
  60. It's only a matter of time isn't it.  It just seems so bizarre to me that so many people (including leaders, bankers, etc.) have been completely blind to the ultimate outcome.  A robery is a robery, a default is a default, whether or not the thieves deem it as "voluntarily beeing robbed" or not.

    ReplyDelete
  61. Yes, you are one of the few who get it. This may be our catalyst for a retracement or trend change. Stay nimble my friend!

    ReplyDelete
  62. You too m'lady.  I bailed out of a puts position early this morning (IWM) and pocketed a few bucks because I think a tiny bounce is coming today into the close.  If I like the shape of it I'll short it again.

    "...you are one of the few who get it."

    My daughter texts me with the message "Daddy, you're smrat.", lol

    I'm gonna flash a very quick picture of her for you to see but then I'm gonna disappear it just as quickly.  It'll be at the bottom of the post above.  I hope you see it before I vanish it again.  I just don't trust trolls.

    ReplyDelete
  63. It's that knee jerk 'flight to safety' I mentioned at Daneric's a few months back. When the SHTF, there will be an automatic knee jerk reaction and the dollar will benefit from that...for a time. The only remaining question - to me, anyway - is a small matter of timing. Well, that, and how long it will last before it ALL crashes and burns.

    ReplyDelete
  64. AR, 
    I'll wear you down eventually ... here's another piece of Fib fan propaganda :)
    http://rationalinsolvency.com/2012/03/spx030512t.png 

    ReplyDelete
  65. I'm a little deeper into the 'deflationist' camp than that WB.  I think it will last longer than just a knee jerk.  In fact if we enter a true deflationary scenario, I'd expect the USD to benefit from that for years rather than months.  For as long as it takes for Europe to completely unravel before its our turn.  A couple of years perhaps?

    ReplyDelete
  66. Yeah, I can go along with that assessment. It could even take a bit longer than a couple of years.

    This is all taking much longer to play out than I originally thought it would, but it is playing out just about the way I thought it would. The only real surprise I've had over the last couple of years is that it is taking so long to reach the inevitable conclusion. Not that I'm complaining, mind you. otoh, it is like watching a car wreck in extreme slow motion

    ReplyDelete
  67. Hmm, not the most exciting of Mondays.

    I am holding a damaged IWM put block into Tuesday (maybe even until Friday). No point exiting at this level, I want IWM 78, with VIX 21 for a decent trade.

    *looking forward to your next posting Alberta'

    yours...
       eyes on AAPL

    ReplyDelete
  68. Missed the pic, AR. Sorry. What fun to have daughters... My 17 year old is almost out of the house. We are looking at Argentina for a semester next year. Would love to see your daughter when/if it works...

    Hang tough...

    DL

    ReplyDelete
  69. My apologies Zim... I had a long long day today.  Once again you come up with a beauty chart.  There are probably about 5 different ways to label the down moves on that chart and I wouldn't be convinced of any of them until probably sometime on Thursday, lol.  But there are some moving averages I trust that are rolling over, suggesting that there's more downside to come.  That's the way I'm positioned for now.  Hope you have a great week trading.

    ReplyDelete
  70. Regardless of what the wave count is, I'm seeing some moving averages roll lower now and to be honest I trust them more than "any" wave count.  I'm thinking the current leg lower will find support at $79-$79.50 and bounce from there.  But I don't think it bounces far.  That particular bounce will likely be a sloppy wave 4 type of deal   From there I think it resumes it's slide down into the area somewhere around $75.50-$77.50.  Let's hope it pans out something like that.  I'm shorting it too but for the first time ever, I'm taking profits when I get them using options.  Too many times I've had 40-60% profit on an option and just watched it slip away.  My problem is that I'm not in the USA so I can't put stops underneath US options.  Do you have that same problem?

    All the best.  I'm pullin' for ya.

    ReplyDelete
  71. "it is like watching a car wreck in extreme slow motion."

    Ain't that the truth.  I'm in a bit of astonishment like you are.  I'm actually floored at the lengths the global banking cabal is going to to delay the inevitable.  I'm afraid they're doing it because they're fully aware that the consequences might be much, much more far reaching than any of us have imagined.  I'm wondering if we'll be seeing essential services cut off, jails emptied, transit shut down, no street lights at night... that type of stuff.  Or maybe worse?  I'm afraid all that is possible.  There might actually be "no money" to go around at all.  How will people acquire stuff?  Will they trade for it?  Or will they kill for it?  When a father has starving children, anything is possible.  I'm afraid it's that type of scenario the bankers are trying to "delay".  Ultimately I don't see how they're going to stop the inevitable though.

    ReplyDelete
  72. Greece.... 1 trillion $ Euro fallout

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/danger-1-tillion-euro-fallout-081634830.html?l=1

    This is far from over....

    Spain is rattling the cage..

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/mar/05/spain-collision-brussels-budget-deficit-targets

    ReplyDelete
  73.  HELLO D L ;

    THERE ARE NUMEROUS  PROBLEMS IN THE WEAKER EUROPEAN NATIONS , THAT THESE MAY NOT LAST BEING MEMBERS WITHIN THE NEXT YEAR . JUST TO GREAT A COST TO KEEP THE ILLNESS IN , WHEN THEY SHOULD BE PURGED OUT .

    GREECE , SHOULD NEVER HAD BEEN ALLOWED IN , BUT WAS MANUFACTURE INTO THE EURO MEMBERSHIP BY DECEPTION UNDER THE CONTROL OF GOLDMAN SACHS !

    HOW MANY OTHERS DID NOT QUALIFY , BUT DID THE GREECE WAY IS REALLY UNKNOWN AT THIS POINT IN TIME . THE EURO MAY BE LESS IN VALUE THAN THE U.S. DOLLAR WITHIN THE NEXT 18 MONTHS OR SOONER .

    MARKETS NOW LOOK TO BE IN A PULL BACK MODE , I HOPE YOU WILL SOON BE WELL IN THE $RUT 2000 , ONLY TIME WILL TELL ?

    THE VERY BEST TO YOU DEAR LOVE . D-KNOX.

    ReplyDelete
  74. HELLO D KNOX!

    ASTUTE WORDS YOU SAY. GREECE TRAGEDY UNRAVELING NOW AND WE WILL SOON COME TO A COLLECTIVE REALIZATION HOW CONNECTED WE ARE. YET OUR WEAK HUMAN MINDS FULL OF EGO WILL WANT TO OVERCOME THAT PERCEIVED VULNERABILITY BY BLAMING OTHERS RATHER THAN ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY. SO WE ARE GOING TO GET A SPANKING. MOTHER NATURE WILL NOT ALLOW US TO WANDER TOO FAR OFF COURSE WITHOUT REPURCUSSIONS.

    WHAT WALL STREET AND THE HALLS OF EVERY POLITICAL BODY NEED NOW IS WISDOM. PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO WAKE UP, TUNE UP AND STEP UP.... THAT IS THE GOOD NEWS. BUT IT ALSO AS YOU KNOW INVOLVES GREAT SUFFERING.

    SO LIKE A GOOD ZEN MASTER PERHAPS ALL WE CAN REALLY DO IS WATCH WITH GREAT COMPASSION, UNDERSTANDING AND LOVE. FIGHTING JUST BRINGS MORE FIGHTING. HOWEVER, THERE WILL COME A TIME TO ACT.

    ReplyDelete
  75. MY RUT SHORTS LOOKING MUCH BETTER TODAY! THANK YOU! PATIENCE.... BE WELL FRIEND. DL

    ReplyDelete
  76. RE: options stops.

    I never set a stop on the option price itself.

    I set a contigent stop, based on the underlying security.

    This morning for instance.... 'exit VIX call, if VIX <21.00'
    -

    Yeah, option profits vapourising is crazy, you can't let a good gain - even 10% slip away.
    -

    my IWM primary target zone of 76/74 looks right on track. 

    ReplyDelete
  77. When you say "set a contingent stop", can you do that officially with your software?  Or do you mean "mentally"?  Because I also never make entry and exit decisions based on and EFT, but rather on its underlying.  But a "contingent stop" is absolutely unavailable to me.  But by golly I'd sure be using that process if it were available.

    I was thinking more along the lines of $75.50-$77.50 but your target is also absolutely attainable.  At this moment they're just guesses anyway.  I wish you the very best regardless.  Can you survive a bounce between here and $75ish?

    ReplyDelete
  78.  I use optionxpress. I LOVEEEEEE their trading screen!

    Yes, they have a truly good 'stop' system available, I could not imagine anything better. Contingent stops are my favourite for options, and if you set it on the underlying, there is NO '10 cent' rule which is usually the case.

    So for instance, if IWM was 79.00 (and I was in a option put position), I could set a con' stop of 'sell at market, if IWM bid (or ask, or offer)  >79.05

    ps. if you gonna open acc' with them, let me know, i could do with 10 free trades, lol. (seriously)

    ReplyDelete
  79. Risk on risk off.  Deflation on, Deflation off.  Clearly the forces of deflation are now in control. Stories are now 
    surfacing that changes in China's emphasis on Domestic demand growth will lead to a cut in commodity consumption.
    Now we learn that haircuts on euro debt appear limitless.. So the press is on the move.  We know which way
    the wind blows.
    Bears have been grumbling about the relentless upward march of this market.  So for now i'm enjoying the ride.
    But i can't help but wonder...Is this another set up?   Will the Fed pull support out from under the market only                            to put them back in place?  

    ReplyDelete
  80. Naw. This is what alla us uber-bears have been waiting for. This down turn is IT. Other than the  1, 2, 3's and a, b, c's of EWT, we won't hit bottom until the DOW is well below 6,000.

    btw. Brace yerselves for WWIII. Historically, big wars are always a consequence of large scale economic collapses. That holds true as far back as ya wanna go...5,000 or 6,000 years and more...

    ReplyDelete
  81. Right around the close today I'll post two pics for a few minutes.  I just can't trust some of the nasty people out there who'd love to do me damage if they could.  We have to be so careful with pics.  It's sad isn't it.  But I'd like to show you my two kids.  My son will be the guy on the right.  The other guy will be his lifelong buddy Mark.  Both are big guys... athlete types in great shape.  6'1", 220 lb. type guys.  And my daughter is darned near bigger than both of 'em, lol.  Exaggerating, but she's a monster big woman at 5' 11" and more athletic than both the boys put together.  Olympic style.  In fact, she would have been at the Olympics in Athens if not for a badly timed back injury.  That was so sad but she's a winner in life anyway.  Has an incredibly good career now, consulting to the health care industry all over North America.

    ReplyDelete
  82. I agree. In places, it will be worse than we can imagine, even in the US. In other places, even in the US, it will be bad, but not *completely* out of control. ...unless it ALL crashes and burns - in that case, we're all screwed in a 'coming to a neighborhood near you' kinda screwed.

     Either way, I expect one of the eventual outcomes to be smaller governments w/more regional and local autonomy (read: more individual freedom and liberty).

     Whatever the outcome, it won't be what any of us are now accustomed to living with or experiencing.

    ReplyDelete
  83. That makes me as happy as it does you, I promise.

    ReplyDelete
  84. It will hit the fan, i'm with ya on that one. Just a matter of when   I'm looking for signs that                                  the Fed is no longer in control. ( Treasuries ? )  Any way the way this correction has just begun
    Enjoy !

    ReplyDelete
  85.  wow thats a neat fib fan chart !

    ReplyDelete
  86.  HELLO A R , IRIQUOIS ,WBONESTEEL ;

    ONE LARGE DAY OF MOVEMENT WITHIN THE INDEX'S OR EVEN A WEEK OF LARGE MOVEMENT'S DOES NOT MAKE A MARKET CHANGE . I HAVE SEEN THREE INTENSE WEEKS OF DECLINES AND WITHIN 30 TO 60 DAYS THE MARKET IS THEN  MOVING UPWARD WITHIN THE FORMATIONS THAT HAS NOT BECOME A BEAR MARKET , ONLY  A VERY SHORT TIME PULL BACK , WITHIN A BULL MARKET .

    A R SAID : " PROVIDED WE ARE INDEED IN A NEW BEAR MARKET " . A VERY WISE STATEMENT TO BE SURE . AS WE OR I ALONE AM NOT INDEED CERTAIN THAT WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR , IS ANY THING OTHER THAT A SHORT TERM CORRECTION .

    THAT THE MAJOR INDEX'S MIGHT WELL STILL HAS SOME TIME LEFT TO MOVE IT'S SELF IN THE VARIOUS INDEX'S TO A POINT THAT WILL BRING ABOUT A COUNTER CHANGE AND A CHANGE IN TREND TO BECOME A BEAR MARKET .

    I FEEL THAT HERE IS STILL SOME TIME LEFT TO SEE THESE VARIOUS INDEX'S MOVE HIGHER , ONCE THIS PULL BACK PERIOD IS COMPLETED . MAJOR MARKET MOVES THAT CHANGE A DIRECTION IN CHANGE , TAKES NORMALLY TIME TO CHANGE THE FORMATIONS AND THE INDICATORS THAT WILL BRING ABOUT A TRUE BEAR MARKET FROM A BULL MARKET FROM WHAT IT WAS PREVIOUSLY ..

    THE FOLLOWING IS CLOSE TO THE NUMBERS OF THE TREND SUPPORT LINE THAT APPEARS ON THE WEEKLY CHARTS , GOING ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE MARCH 2009 MARKET LOW POINT AND THEN USING THE LOWS ON THE LAST BOTTOM PULL BACK IN A WEEKLY TIME FRAME . THEN EXTENDING THAT TREND LINE TO THE CURRENT TIME FRAME OF THE POSSBLE POINTS WITH IN THE NEXT 3 TO 4 WEEKS.

    THE DOW AT 12100 , THE S & P 500 AT 1250 , THE NASDAQ AT 2700 , THE NYSE AT 7400 - 7500 , THE NDX 100 AT 300 - 2400 . THE OEX 100 AT 560 - 570 AND THE RUSSELL 2000 AT 700 .

    THE NUMBERS ABOVE ARE ONLY A GUIDE LINE TO KNOW WHERE THE CURRENT SUPPORT LINE IS NEAR AT THIS POINT IN TIME .  6 TO 8 WEEKS FROM NOW , IT MAY BE HIGHER , ONLY IF THE MARKETS ARE THEN IN A UP TREND AND MOVING HIGHER . IF THEY HAVE BEEN BROKEN THROUGH TO THE DOWN SIDE , THEN IT MIGHT VERY WELL MARK A NEW BEAR MARKET THEN TAKING PLACE .

    UNTIL THEN , ONLY TIME WILL TELL ?

    ALL THE BEST , TO ALL WHO ARE HERE .  D-KNOX.



    A SIMPLE GUIDE TO USE ,

    ReplyDelete
  87. HELLO D.KNOX.  I HOPE YOU ARE DOING WELL.  I MADE UP A CHART ON THE S&P 500 IN THE WEEKLY TIME SCALE FOR YOU TO LOOK AT.  CLICK HERE TO SEE IT.  ON IT I HAVE DRAWN 3 TREND LINES.  I THINK THE ONE YOU'RE REFERRING TO IS THE WHITE ONE.  BUT THAT WHITE TREND LINE PASSES BENEATH THE BOTTOM OF A KIND OF A SPIKE LOWER SO I ALSO DREW THE YELLOW ONE WHICH MIGHT BE MORE ACCURATE.  IN ANY CASE, THEY'RE BOTH THERE FOR CONSIDERATION.

    I ALSO DREW THE BLUE ONE BECAUSE AT ONE TIME IT WAS A MAJOR TREND LINE THAT WAS IN EFFECT..  IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT ONCE PRICE BROKE BELOW THAT BLUE TREND LINE, IT HAS NOW RISEN BACK UP UNDERNEATH IT TO "TEST IT".  NOTICE THAT CURRENT PRICE IS ALSO AT THE FORMER HIGH OF MAY, 2011.  THAT CONFLUENCE OF THE BLUE TREND LINE AND THE RED HORIZONTAL LINE MAKES ME THINK THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE RESISTANCE RIGHT THERE.  SO I HAVE A HUNCH THAT THE BLUE TREND LINE WILL NOT BE SURPASSED. BUT IF IT IS, THEN I'D SAY THERE WOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD CASE FOR MUCH MORE BULLISH ACTION THAN MANY OF US ARE EXPECTING.

    ReplyDelete
  88. AR et al.
    Thanks for posting the other day on Daneric's site.  Lead me to yours.  I'm the guy you helped out with your sma's about six months ago.  Good luck trading!

    ReplyDelete
  89. Hi Clshroeder.  I'm not sure how I helped you out but I'm glad it helped, whatever it was.  I still use MAs... in a big way because I find them to be more trustworthy than wave counting itself.  Of course I do look at wave counts, particularly from those who are real good at it but if even they aren't sure, then I'm certainly not.  So I rely heavily on the good old momentum indicators, trend lines, support and resistance levels and of course the MAs.  Wishing you the best.

    ReplyDelete
  90. Thanks CR!

    These have been useful on smaller timeframes:
    http://rationalinsolvency.blogspot.com/2012/03/3-mar-djia.html#comment-458346771
    http://rationalinsolvency.com/2012/03/rut4mo030712ff.png

    Even shorter term, I thought this one (that I already posted above) was especially beautiful:
    http://rationalinsolvency.com/2012/03/spx030512t.png
    Re-entry back under the 100% fanline was a pretty sweet signal too!

    ReplyDelete
  91. This is worth reading... It looks like CDSs will likely be triggered?

    http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2012/03/eurozone-crisis-live-blog-29/#axzz1oW5fyYAm

    Hold onto your hats! I'm not sure how markets will respond.

    Best of luck everybody!

    ReplyDelete
  92. Preparing for a CDS trigger event that must pay out? Why ISDA publish this otherwise...?

    https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/323866-icm-14590627-v1-bonds-for-review-as-of-7-march.html

    ReplyDelete
  93. Thanks DL.  For me personally, I have to admit that when I see a document like that my eyes just kind of glaze over.  I could never be an accountant, lol.  Ironically, that's what my older brother studied in university (Gonzaga).  But I'd guess that document is just a list of who's vulnerable.  I don't think we can draw any conclusion from the fact that the ISDA published it.  Nonetheless, the whole thing just stinks to high heaven doesn't it?

    On Monday night I watched the move "Margin Call".  Have you seen it?  I'm a Kevin Spacey fan anyway, so I was pleasantly surprised to see him play a key roll in the movie.  I was expecting it to show all the carnage that would happen after a $6 trillion con-job on the world by the big bank in the movie (it was obviously supposed to be JPM or Goldman).  Instead, the entire movie occurred within an 8 hour overnight session of meetings where the big power boys had to gather their troops and convince them the screw the entire world in the morning.  It was intense and pretty darned scary.

    ReplyDelete
  94. This is another event that is just a matter of 'when', not 'if.'

     Rodeo bull riders have a saying, "It's not a matter of 'if' you get hurt. Just 'when' and 'how bad.'"

    ReplyDelete
  95. The CDS  market alone is a 32 trillion dollar market.  No matter how many people say Greece
    is not that important, i can't believe the ISDA is eager to set a precedent.  The board of directors 
    of the ISDA is a who's who of the global banking cartel.
    No matter what the ISDA does,  pay out or not,  sever market imbalances will be created.

    ReplyDelete
  96. Hi AR,

    I'm fed up with Daneric's Yahoo board with Wanger and his 20+ alter-ego posting names, santa and his several posting names, and the other trolls that have turned what was once a decent blog into a flaming cluster-f*ck of a$$holes.

    I wish I understood Daneric's goal, unless it's simply a numbers game of posts, regardless of content (or lack thereof).

    Hope all is well with you and your's...

    ReplyDelete
  97. Ahh...so you saw it!
    --
    I will say it wasn't what I expected...better actually. I'm also a big Spacey fan (have you seen K-Pax?..thats worth seeing).

    It kinda amused me - in retrospect, that the 'action', the big climax is merely a short series of phone calls, with just ordinary footage of a trading floor. No shouting, no screaming,....just a few calls! Very subtle, and the implications of that scene would fly right over the head of the average viewer.

    Seen from the other side...the CEO was right....'THIS IS IT!'.

    The music did indeed stop in 2008..and in many ways...it never restarted. As many call it, it still very much looks like we are playing a game of musical chairs on the SS Titanic. The entire western economy is now built on a LIE.

    I can't imagine what it'd be like to be a Chinese person, and how they must see the west.


    yours...never had a margin call

    (cash-only account ;))

    ReplyDelete
  98.  re: bear market..

    Indeed, that IS the question.

    From the wave/count perspective, we'll only be able to confirm last May-October (wave'1)..and Oct-March' 2'....

    if we break the October lows - across multiple indexes...which for SP' was 1074.

    so...if we do get a close.around 1050 or better...I WILL declare is a bear market...and targets of 750 or less would be a given in my view in the mid term.
    -

    ReplyDelete
  99. Hey AR, 

    Glad to see many of the quality posters from Daneric's frequenting your blog too.

    Thought you might enjoy a peek at some VIX charts.  The RSI trend lines are flashing another upturn at a time when we're just one bump shy of an inverse H&S completion targeting 26+.  

    http://pebblewriter.blogspot.com/2012/03/charts-im-watching-march-8-2012.html

    Best of luck, my friend.

    ReplyDelete
  100. Yes I saw K-Pax.  In fact I'm pretty sure that's the first movie where I saw Spacey.  I wanted so bad for him to really be from K-Pax but to this day I still don't know if he was or not, lol.

    I find it so ironic that so many people from all over the world aspire to 'live in America... live the American dream... have all the things they've ever wanted'.  And yet they don't have any idea how all those things in the west came about.  The have no idea that the illusion of what the west is, is just that... an illusion.  An illusion built on borrowed money that we're expecting our children and grandchildren to pay back.  Everything we have built is not an accurate measure of our output, of how hard we have worked ("how little we have worked for it" is more accurate) to achieve it  Of course we didn't really achieve it, we borrowed it from the future.

    Best of success PD.

    ReplyDelete
  101. Yup!  I don't have a freakin' clue what this market is.  In fact, I don't even much care anymore because I've changed my style to just making trades on whichever way I think it's headed over the next two or three days.  I've given up trying to figure out where it's going to be 4 months from now.  I think it should be a hell of a lot lower.  It'll probably be a hell of a lot higher, just because it should be a hell of a lot lower.... just out of spite.  I get so angry sometimes at the whole charade that I just don't give a shit if the S&P is at 900 or 1900 six months from now.  As long as I play what I see and pick up small gains the majority of the time I'll end up better off as we move forward.  It's frustrating as hell because I want to see the big shots at Goldman hanging from a gallows as they deserve.  Crimes against humanity are punishable by death and that's what they should be facing.

    ReplyDelete
  102. Thanks Pebble.  Your timing is impeccable because tonight I'm just angry.  The action over the past 3 days of trading is just criminal.  I made money at it, but it's still criminal what's going on... the manipulation is just off the charts.  Thanks for the charts bud.

    ReplyDelete
  103.  HELLO A R ;

    VERY NICE ANALYSIS AND CHART  ON THE CURRENT FORMATION ON THE WEEKLY S & P 500.
    I AGREE WITH THAT OUT LOOK THAT YOU HAVE OUT LINED IN REGARDING THE BLUE LINE .

    THE RED LINE , IS IN DEED THIS AREA OF THE POSSIBLE TOPPING OF THE FORMATION NOW IN PROGRESS . IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN EITHER THE PRICE MOVING DOWNWARD TO THE YELLOW TREND LINE OR A MOVING ABOVE THAT RED LINE .

    AT THIS POINT IN TIME , IT APPEARS THAT THE PRICE MOVEMENT WILL NOT ADHERE TO THE UPWARD BLUE LINE , UNLESS A FORCE MOVES IT TO DO SO . IT MIGHT WELL MAKE A LESSER WAVE THAT WILL BE BETWEEN THE BLUE AND THE YELLOW TREND LINES .

    THAT'S  THE POSSIBLE RESULT AFTER ANY FUTURE PULL BACK , THEN THE BREAKING OVER THE RED LINE AND MOVING UP TO THE 1450'S TO 1550'S FOR A POSSIBLE ROLLING TOP BETWEEN THOSE TWO AREA'S

    I HAVE NOT CONSIDERED THE WHITE LINE, AS IT REFLECTS THE WICK AND NOT THE BODY OF THE CANDLE , AS I WOULD RATER MEASURE A BODY TO RETAIN ACCURATE TRENDS .

    I STILL AM THINKING , THAT WE HAVE NOT YET ENTERED INTO A BEGINNING OF A BEAR MARKET .

    THERE ARE NOT ENOUGH INDICATORS SHOWING WEAKNESS NOR FLASHING A RED LIGHT AT MYSELF TO ALERT THE PRESENT'S OF A BEAR MARKET . I KNOW THAT ONE CAN DEVELOP , VERY QUICKLY AND FORCEFULLY , BUT I JUST TO NOT HAVE THAT FEELING AS YET .

    OTHER ACTIVITIES LEFT MYSELF OUT SIDE OF THE MARKET TODAY , AND I AM NOW TRYING TO PLAY CATCH UP .

    ALLES IST QUITE ONS ZEE VESTERN FRONT !

    ALL THE BEST TO YOU A R AND YOUR VIEWER AND READERSHIP . D-KNOX .

    ReplyDelete
  104. OK, that Wagner/BoboM video IS funny.  Not only is Wagner insulting, but he's just plain wrong on so may levels and once THAT becomes obvious, he's tries a misdirect to change the topic to cover is idiocy.  His most common is to respond to a comment I've made to someone else trying to refute my stance that the economy isn't getting better with government approved responses, but when I ask for specifics on housing and employment, he just continues with content-free crap.

    It is partially my fault for responding, which I will put an end to by not posting over there, at least in the short term.  I agree with Pebblewriter, it's good to see more of the quality posters from Daneric's starting to appear here, which speaks volumes about YOU!

    ReplyDelete
  105.  It's a bit awkward to put it this way, but it is good to see some of the better folks fron Dano's blog showing up here.

     The kinds of folks who can have a decent conversation about the issues, even when they disagree over the details and possible outcomes.That's an environment that is conducive to learning and growing as individuals, not only as investors and/or market junkies.

     I appreciate you providing such an environment, AR.

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  106. So how do you really feel? (j/k)

    Manipulation skewing counts is something that could probably be quantified pretty easily. I just don't know how. ;)

    Seems pretty obvious to me though. A bunch of HFTs front running organic moves... seems certain they're amplifying those moves. So a 2 could break above the start of the 1, or a 4 could cross back into wave 1 territory, and so forth.

    So you have what look like a bunch of busted counts, when it's just trying to apply rigid rules that were written before HFTs existed. Kind of like the British trying to apply rigid Napoleonic rules of gentlemanly warfare when the Colonists were wearing drab and fighting guerilla style. Times had changed. And it was time to change the rules.

    ReplyDelete
  107. Yeah, unfortunately that blog has deteriorated to such a toxic atmosphere that in all honesty I don't see how it can be anything but bad for a trader's mindset, whether he wants to play the long side or the short side.  In my opinion it's flat out damaging to one's psyche to even go there.  I mean we've got serious business to do and we can't do it when Danno just let's the dregs of society run rampant over there pissing on everybody's work.  We're seeing very little valuable content from other commenters these days.  I certainly don't post anything there like I used to.  Why should I when it just gets pissed on by assholes like Santa (you know, of "Sarah Palin" fame)?  I used to post some pretty enlightening stuff and it was widely accepted for the longest time.  I've still got a ton of stuff I could show there, stuff people have never even seen before, but fk it.

    This blog will never become a general meeting place like Danno's site.  Thank god for that. lol.   I never intended to make this a popular chat site.  That will never happen because, for one thing, I don't provide a daily supply of pablum.  Secondly, I don't do wave counts which is what the vast majority of visitors there want to see.  Not that it's done any of them any good anyway.  In fact it's been flat out devastating.  Trying to pick the top in a market that, if history is of any value, should be falling is essentially "fighting the FED".  And as everybody knows, investors are never to "fight the FED".  It's just that those criminal bastards are going to end losing control some day and all of us would like to catch that ride down.  But judging by the reaction today to the news that "Yay, Greece isn't going to default, they're just going to screw all their bond holders to the tune of 85%", then the market has literally gone insane.  Such is the effect of endless money printing and a media that's controlled by those same whores who control the global money supplies.  Maybe there is no end to it!  Maybe the S&P will indeed just soar to 2000.  If that's the case, then of course that means the death of tens of millions of people due to starvation.  Perhaps hundreds of millions.  But to the bankers, what's a little collateral damage?

    Thanks for the kind words Lapwolf.  But again, I don't think many will show up here.  Since I don't write a daily "here's what we're going to do today children", people don't even know where to drop off a comment.  I guess they just look for the latest article I've written and use that space.  That's why I created the pub, people haven't used it.  So I might just delete those posts... shut the pub down.  In fact, I've even thought of shutting this blog down altogether and just start focusing on doing my own thing... trading the markets as I see them.  I actually do better that way.  After all is said and done, all the noise doesn't do me any good.

    ReplyDelete
  108. Some of the bulls  predicted a 15 something print on the VIX  before we top and we are less than a point away from 
    that happening.  May be late next week.  Have a great weekend !

    ReplyDelete
  109.  I think I speak for most here when I say "I value your opinions and articles and hope you don't shut it down".  I'm always looking for data that challenges and/or re-inforces my belief.

    I have been amazed at the control that has been exerted over the markets these last 3 years as I have not seen ANY data that supports anything but a new, manufactured bubble that is actually bigger than the last, with even shakier underpinnings.

    Housing is a bigger mess and they've learned that if they can lower the labor participation rate, unemployment goes down, even as jobs are continuely lost.

    Greece forces an 85% haircut on bond-holders and that's NOT a default.  Why would any country pay their debts when deals like that are now on the table?  Hello Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Ireland, just to name a few.

    It's a crazy world destined to fail, but this is a small corner of sanity, unless the majority is judged sane, making us the insane few...

    ReplyDelete
  110. Hi Papa.  What a pleasure to see you post a comment here.  You always were one of my very favourite people and I always enjoy hearing your thoughts.  I'm know I told you that over on the other site too, because you blushed, lol.  Your presence here is a good thing.

    I agree with you 100%.  As much as I like the folks who do wave counting and appreciate their talents and insights, and consider many of them as good friends, EWT has been the most damaging thing for me personally that I could have ever encountered.  I'm pretty darned good at the "organic" type of technical analysis and at finding relationships that are oh so revealing.  But even those are skewed a little bit these days.  More accurately, they have been pushed to limits never seen before.  But mathematics don't lie.  At least up until recently, when Goldman Sachs purchased the rights to logic and had its use suspended until further notice.  Yet all they're doing is simply artificially delaying the inevitable. 

    There is absolutely no way a default by Greece is going to pass the guards unscathed.  Let alone Portugal, Italy and Spain which are next in line.  Who in hell do Goldman Sachs et al think they're fooling?  The audacity is just mind boggling.  Do you know who's getting sucked in by their recent actions and by their propaganda machine better known as the MSM?  The pension funds, that's who.  The retail investor has been leaving the markets for, what is it, 33 straight weeks now?  But the mom and pop hard working ipeople who have all their futures tied up in "the safe hands of their fund manager", a lobotomized fund manager no less... they are the ones who are going to get absolutely crushed.  And that breaks my heart because that group includes damned near everybody I know, including my brother and sister.

    But back to the wave counts.  "The British trying to apply rigid Napoleonic rules of gentlemanly
    warfare when the Colonists were wearing drab and fighting guerilla
    style
    .  That pretty much sums it up I'd say.  The rules of economic warfare have indeed changed  But the outcome is still known in my opinion.  Either that or tens, if not hundreds, of millions of people are going to starve to death over the next 2-4 years.  What economy is going to survive with $475 per barrel of oil?  Because that's where the bastards are going to take prices if they are successful with their plans.  They have proven with 100% certainty that their goal is to just inflate the world out of this mess right into a different kind of mess.  Either way, economies are going to collapse.  The S&P might be at 5500 by then, but when that day arrives a gentleman's suit would cost about $15,000... the price of one ounce of gold.  All I know with certainty is that those who run the world are psychopathic monsters.  Whether they're going to win or not... I'm still not sure.

    Drop in any time you like.  It's good to hear your voice.

    ReplyDelete
  111. Whaddaya know.  Some friendly faces.  I hope you don't ban me.

    On the ES chart the move from recent highs looks a lot like an A-B-C with a triangle B wave (not so much in SPX).  So maybe this most recent rally is/was a 5th wave.
     
    Whoa.  A failed triangle -- just saw it as I was typing this message  My wish came true.

    Have a great weekend everybody.  Somebody needs to tell Aunt Pittypat about this place.

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  112. I don't see a link for flagging your posts.  Heh, heh.  Just kidding.

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  113. I've gotta belief the HFT algos are written with a bullish bias.  Without that I'm sure they wouldn't be allowed to flourish.

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  114. Hi Doc.  Of course there are friendly faces here.  You weren't expecting to find any trolls here were ya?

    "I hope you don't ban me."  Haha, you'll have to work pretty hard to earn that honor my friend.  You're whitelisted which means the Disqus spam patrol will supposedly ignore your comments.  So you can post anything you like and not be bothered with Disqus issues on this site... at least that's the way it's supposed to work.  So far, so good.  So just don't post any links to the Kremlin or anything like that and I think you'll be ok, lol.

    Why don't you post a chart showing the failed triangle you're referring to?  I'd like to see it and I'm sure a few others would as well.

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  115. I can't say for sure that it's a failed triangle, but I'm pleased that the sideways pattern didn't resolve to the upside (so far).  I'm frustrated short at this minute and it doesn't take much to please me.  Here's a crude ES chart:

    http://screencast.com/t/3AsMtA7ADf 

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  116. Seriously doc?  Because I can't see it either even though I have it enabled.  I though that was just because I'm a moderator for this site. Truthfully... can you see an option to flag comments?

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  117. Oops.  I DO see the option.  My mistake.

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  118. Thanks doc.  I think the market is gonna gap way lower on Monday.  I suppose you'd be more "pleased" if I could guarantee that, but... well you know. :-)  Have a great weekend.

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  119. Thanks for letting me know.  I'll get an email when a comment gets flagged just to alert me to it.  So far no comment has ever been flagged.  I wonder if it lets me know who the flagger is.  If so, then Danno would know who's been flagging my comments on his site. 

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  120. Not doing anything about it seems rather crude of him.

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  121. In his defense, we don't know whether or not he even has his settings set so that he gets an alert when a comment is flagged.  But he certainly has the tools there to ban anybody he wants.  Otherwise Wagner's 20 comments to this site would have been published.  They're all there in the garbage where they belong.  Someday I might post them all at once and let people see what an absolute monster he really is.

    At the very least though, Danno should at least have the courtesy to clean up his god damned spam bin because the fact that my comments are rotting in his bin is affecting my ability to post on other sites.  Is there any wonder I'm starting to get a bit angry with the guy?  I want to like him but he's making that a very tough thing to do because of that exhibition of complete irresponsibility to hes readers.

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  122. Wags is dominated the blog.  Who needs it.  I assume you've tried sending Dan an email.

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  123. +1

    MUB says, "what bounce?"
    http://rationalinsolvency.com/2012/03/mub030912.png 

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  124. Negative, I have not sent Dan an email about Wagner.  I did send him an email over a year ago about a different topic.  I can't even remember what it was about, but it wasn't about trolls. 

    Yeah, that sire has become the Wagner circus.  A couple of people have been totally duped by his attempts at civility and have warmed up to him.  I have absolutely zero respect for them any more and they're certainly no longer on my friends list.  Even the newcomer Geno, who I've known for a long time from another site made the statement that most of Wagner's insults are merely retaliation.  Even though I thought Geno was a decent type of guy from my past dealings with him, that comment just infuriated me.  Especially coming from a guy who hasn't got a clue about the history over there.  Talk about stepping out of line.

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  125. Here are a couple of Financials charts I also posted on the unfortunately polluted blog that is now Daneric (not that numerous thoughtful people don't still visit).  The 60min RIFIN chart provides a nice EW count and megaphone top pattern.

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  126. Thanks for the charts Doc.  Your first one is showing the same pattern that I proposed back on Jan. 20th.  Of course I didn't dream it would take nearly this long to develop.  But at the time I also asked the question "But what if this pattern were to develop?"  If I'm not mistaken, that second (and more bullish) outcome might be what you're getting at in your second chart when you suggest we "might be at wave 3 of 5." 

    Both those charts came from this article.  What I'm thinking is that if the second pattern is what develops, we might be looking at an entirely different ballgame.  Something unthinkable... extremely bullish.  The weekly charts are in overbought territory but they could theoretically stay overbought for another full year just as they did in 2009.  So the weekly charts certainly aren't objecting to the more bullish outcome. 

    I guess we won't be able to really discuss that uber-bullish outcome until we see what type of pullback eventually comes (provided Goldman even permits a pullback of course).  But at this stage of the game, I'm going to assume that both scenarios are entirely possible.  Naturally I'm leaning toward the bearish side of things.  But since Greece just defaulted on it's debt and Greek bond holders just got screwed to the tune of 85%, concluding one of the most deflationary events in recent history, and the god damned equities markets celebrate it by putting on a rally of 18% in the past 10 weeks, then I can only conclude that the entire world of economics is as fked up in the head as Wagner is.  When a sovereign default doesn't mean squat, that's about all the evidence I need that the global banking cabal has a hell of a lot more tools, power and evil than we even know about.  Therefore, I'm about ready to capitulate and go with the second scenario, with the S&P screaming toward 2000 and oil at $450 per barrel.  Tens if not hundreds of millions of people would starve to death under that scenario but those evil whores at the controls couldn't care less about a little collateral damage like that.

    That's what I'm thinking today, even though every fiber of my being says the markets should tank.  But I reserve the right to change my mind at some point in the future.  But it's getting to the point where it's going to take the S&P below 1266 to take the ulta-bullish scenario off the table in my opinion. 

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  127. Thanks for the charts Doc.  Your first one is showing the same pattern that I proposed back on Jan. 20th.  Of course I didn't dream it would take nearly this long to develop.  But at the time I also asked the question "But what if this pattern were to develop?"  If I'm not mistaken, that second (and more bullish) outcome might be what you're getting at in your second chart when you suggest we "might be at wave 3 of 5."  

    Both those charts came from this article.  What I'm thinking is that if the second pattern is what develops, we might be looking at an entirely different ball game.  Something unthinkable... extremely bullish.  The weekly charts are in overbought territory but they could theoretically stay overbought for another full year just as they did in 2009.  So the weekly charts certainly aren't objecting to the more bullish outcome.  

    I guess we won't be able to really discuss that uber-bullish outcome until we see what type of pullback eventually comes (provided Goldman even permits a pullback of course).  But at this stage of the game I'm going to assume that both scenarios are entirely possible.  Naturally I'm leaning toward the bearish side of things.  But since Greece just defaulted on its debt and Greek bond holders just got screwed to the tune of 85%, concluding one of the most deflationary events in recent history, and the god damned equities markets celebrate it by putting on a rally of 18% in the past 10 weeks, then I can only conclude that the entire world of economics is as fked up in the head as Wagner is.  

    When a sovereign default doesn't mean squat, that's about all the evidence I need that the global banking cabal has a hell of a lot more tools, power and evil than we even know about.  Therefore, I'm about ready to capitulate and go with the second scenario, with the S&P screaming toward 2000 and oil at $450 per barrel.  Tens if not hundreds of millions of people would starve to death under that scenario but those evil whores at the controls couldn't care less about a little collateral damage like that.

    That's what I'm thinking today, even though every fiber of my being says the markets should tank although I reserve the right to change my mind at some point in the future.  But it's getting to the point where it's going to take the S&P below 1266 to take the ulta-bullish scenario off the table in my opinion.

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  128. Heh. We'll see what everyone else says after they've realized that Greece just blew up in their faces...

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  129. The supposed resolution of this Greek debt issue would seem to be a classic "Buy the rumor, sell the news" type of event.  SPX has been up 9 of the last 10 weeks and the one down week was by less than 2 pts.  European sovereign debt has been the top financial news issue for the entire period. 

    I agree we're a long way from dismissing the ultra-bullish scenario.

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  130. Thanks for pointing that out doc.  I'm not kidding you, I wasn't even aware of that fact because I tend to focus on the Russell for its faster signals.  You've inspired me to write another article.  I'm serious, I have you to thank for this.  If you can supply me with a picture of your avatar, and if you'd like, I'd be happy to insert it into the article.

    Thanks man...

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  131. Thanks but I'm content to be a background muse.

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  132. Ok, but I really do thank you sincerely.  I hope you'll visit that latest piece because there's a hell of a message revealed there and I would have missed it without your heads-up.  And you said "I hope you don't ban me."?  lol... not gonna happen bud.

    BTW, it looks like I'm banned from Danno's site.  I'm not sure if it's just because he doesn't take care of his spam bin and clear those who are innocent, or the fact that he just doesn't like me pointing out that he's totally irresponsible in that regard.  In any case, he now has Wagner and not yours truly.  If he thinks that's a gain, he's welcome to it.  Bobo's not able to post either.  So maybe it's a Canadian thing, who knows?  In any case Wagner won.  Please congratulate him for me.

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  133. un - fucking - believable

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