tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3285685659201746004.post3955561408400189970..comments2024-02-29T04:24:14.076-07:00Comments on Albertarocks' TA Discussions: Rates About To Support Huge Equities Rally... 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rel="nofollow">north face outlet</a>, <a href="http://www.cheapnfljersey-outlet.com/" rel="nofollow">nfl jerseys</a>fbfgnbnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3285685659201746004.post-77810514514483887872012-09-04T07:55:37.793-06:002012-09-04T07:55:37.793-06:00Thanks CR. For those who don't have computers...Thanks CR. For those who don't have computers and aren't able to click that link, here's what DK's chart looks like:Albertarockshttp://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3285685659201746004.post-7788581507423170562012-09-04T06:11:37.611-06:002012-09-04T06:11:37.611-06:00Kimble http://mediacdn.disqus.com/uploads/med...Kimble http://mediacdn.disqus.com/uploads/mediaupload/tmp/77a9a27ece7a9321ed4bed205462b487b8494465dc38e805cfbf55dc/original.jpgChartramblerhttp://www.chartramblings.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3285685659201746004.post-87160728945718943532012-09-04T05:55:12.725-06:002012-09-04T05:55:12.725-06:00I get what you're saying. I think the entire m...I get what you're saying. I think the entire market is investing on a similar sentiment right now -- "they'll never let it fall." And since the system was designed and intended to go up, not down, and many interests will do anything and everything they can to keep it going up, at any given point the odds favor a long position -- or a long interpretation of counts or TA signals or whatever. It's pretty easy to get a reputation as an investing guru. Just always call for more up side, and you'll be right about 80 percent of the time.<br /><br />On the other hand, I've lost far more money in the market long than I have short. I got slammed in the dot-com-tech crash, then slammed again in the fin crash -- even worse percentage-wise, over 80 percent down in value. I was "diversified" among many instruments, and actually was forced by one mutual fund company to close my investment accounts for dropping below their minimum. It was both ironic and a shitty thing to do, since technically they were the ones who lost the money.<br /><br />I think that when I go short, I tend to be a lot more conservative and safe, so I haven't lost much. I've rarely gone long since the fin crash. Knowing what I know now, when I'm long I don't sleep well.Papa_Boulehttp://boulechat.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3285685659201746004.post-40022903552942770462012-09-04T03:26:14.443-06:002012-09-04T03:26:14.443-06:00A cable chart from DarkestKnight http://screenca...A cable chart from DarkestKnight http://screencast.com/t/XqI4YphefQChartramblerhttp://www.chartramblings.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3285685659201746004.post-83221489502538421822012-09-03T23:04:44.576-06:002012-09-03T23:04:44.576-06:00I think one of the most unfortunate aspects of any...I think one of the most unfortunate aspects of any market that is starting to run on fumes is the fact that so many of us, bulls and bears alike, know that a crash could happen at any time. As a result there is a pretty big group who'd fall into the category of "those afraid they'll miss the big one." They tend to be short almost all the time in one degree or another, usually "too short". I'm not innocent of that either although for the past several mumfs I've just gone with a few indicators I like, more or less just said fk it and have played the market as if Bernanke and the Fed didn't exist. So that means I've been able to go long when the signals tell me to go long and to go short when told. I'm an obedient soldier these days. I gotta tell ya Papa, once I'm long and quite confident that the signals were correct, it's strangely comforting to know that the biggest criminals to have ever existed are on my side. It's creepy but eerily calming, not to mention easier to make money on the long side than on the short side. <br /><br />Don't get me wrong, I'm very freakin' fast to jump on the bear wagon too when I get the signals I'm comfortable with. In fact I'm short as of this evening and based on some things I'm seeing, I'm not completely at ease with that. On the other hand, I'm seeing a few bearish signals I like a whole lot... like this weekly Renko chart of the S&P. Notice that with the settings I have, it has not issued a false signal at all. In fact it hasn't issued a false signal in years. By "false signal" I'm referring to a new red brick like the latest one followed by a green brick higher... a deke out. IOW, once it changes direction it means business. If past performance is of any value, then I think it's reasonable to expect that we should see at least as many red bricks as we've seen in the past (at the minimum)... and that would be 8 (the top green one and 7 reds). That would imply a drop to 1384 at a minimum.Albertarockshttp://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3285685659201746004.post-34750521594428173202012-09-03T12:15:06.564-06:002012-09-03T12:15:06.564-06:00DK mentioned upthread about how when the markets f...DK mentioned upthread about how when the markets finally turn, they'll turn without a lot of warning. I got to thinking how true that is historically. If people knew things like that were coming, no one would be caught in the markets when they happen.<br /><br />Anyone can write a book today and claim they would have had the genius to see the crash of 1929 coming. But in that day, few did. Most people were swept up in a "mass escape into make-believe, so much a part of the true speculative orgy" (Galbraith). They didn't think it could end. October of 1929 caught most everyone by surprise, including the titans of finance. You can read any newspaper of October 23, 1929, and analyze the charts of the day, and you'll see nothing totally unique that tips off the next day of Black Thursday with fail-proof certainty, or tips off the subsequent plunge on the following Black Tuesday.<br /><br />That's why I think the prudent thing is to simply take an unleveraged short position (if you're going to be in the markets at all), stay mostly in cash, and just wait the thing out. Bubbles always burst. There's just no predicting with pinpoint accuracy when that moment will happen.Papa_Boulehttp://boulechat.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3285685659201746004.post-60911945358569229322012-09-02T18:57:51.474-06:002012-09-02T18:57:51.474-06:00usd/jpy tends to follow US long bond rates. Which ...usd/jpy tends to follow US long bond rates. Which could head to Japanese levels in the years ahead suggesting usd/jpy could hit your targets. However it did break out of a multi year trendline. So maybe not quite 60's?newbfxtradernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3285685659201746004.post-55165861146083105022012-09-02T10:58:39.523-06:002012-09-02T10:58:39.523-06:00Yeah it looks like the USD might start to find a b...Yeah it looks like the USD might start to find a bottom against the Yen maybe in the coming year as you say. I've got a hunch though that since it has been Japan's deflationary decades that have cause the Yen to be under such demand for the past 20 of the last 72 years, that same deflation in the future that would cause the USD to strengthen would also cause just more demand for the Yen too. So even though I'd have to agree with you that the USD appears to be ready to turn higher against the Yen in the next year or so, I don't think it would be explosive at all. I 'do' think the move in the dollar could be explosive against many of the other currencies, but not against the Yen. We'll see. I'm not worried about that particular pair one way or the other, lol.Albertarockshttp://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3285685659201746004.post-26454678477229675392012-09-01T23:26:52.111-06:002012-09-01T23:26:52.111-06:00weekly chart
USDJPY still in a wedge down. I think...weekly chart<br />USDJPY still in a wedge down. I think it might find a generational low in the 60's over the next 12 months. what happens next is anyone's guess though.<br />http://screencast.com/t/oqa1WCujizdarkestknightnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3285685659201746004.post-53056585884333373902012-09-01T22:44:06.836-06:002012-09-01T22:44:06.836-06:00Thought I could hear my name across the interweb.....Thought I could hear my name across the interweb...<br />I'm thinking a short, sharp e wave lasting a few days before USDJPY heads towards the 60's. That would take AUDJPY with it too.<br />But it's clear the looong 72-year downtrend is nearing it's completion in wave terms...but hard to predict the timing if it does indeed find a low soon-maybe over the next 12 months? - but what would that mean for AUDJPY? hard to say. I have a nasty feeling that one day we wake up and everything's gone to fuck and all our hard work plotting & analysing comes to nothing- even those who predicted correctly are unable to cover their positions in time. The world gets turned on it's head with overnight Yen or dollar devaluation or some such cataclysm.....ach, just have to keep fighting I guess.<br />Keep on Rockin AR<br />Dkdarkestknightnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3285685659201746004.post-36376421211096002622012-09-01T00:57:26.038-06:002012-09-01T00:57:26.038-06:00Darkest knight posted this over at daneric's, ...Darkest knight posted this over at daneric's, can anyone explain to me the argument for a usdjpy collapse (ie Yen goes super strong).. I thought japan could not bear a much stronger currency than what it is at now<br /><br />http://screencast.com/t/HlnHvYfN beneficiarynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3285685659201746004.post-12402996494968825402012-08-31T16:00:14.906-06:002012-08-31T16:00:14.906-06:00Yep.
I plan to update these posts sometime over ...Yep.<br /> <br />I plan to update these posts sometime over the weekend. <br />http://highrevsopenhouse.blogspot.com.es/2012/07/july-26-2012-gld-descending-triangle.html<br />http://highrevsopenhouse.blogspot.com.es/2012/07/gld-weekly.htmlHighRevhttp://highrevsopenhouse.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3285685659201746004.post-32598284646388964632012-08-31T15:03:40.126-06:002012-08-31T15:03:40.126-06:00finally got the break of 1625 . gold should run mu...finally got the break of 1625 . gold should run much higherbillabusternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3285685659201746004.post-4482411917219308952012-08-31T07:07:10.000-06:002012-08-31T07:07:10.000-06:00Glad you like the chart. I've found that thos...Glad you like the chart. I've found that those volume vacuums are very, very telling in that price does indeed slice right through them like a hot knife. But those levels are often defended so we'd need to see it get started by the S&P dropping down through the recent low. And this time around it also happens to be a round number of 1400 so it probably won't get through on this first touch. <br /><br />I should have said that in my comment above because the futures have gone nuts to the upside based of course on absolutely nothing but "expectation" that Bernanke has unleashed his QE fury. And of course he hasn't because he hasn't even spoken yet and won't for another hour. So either JPM and Citi and the rest of those thieving whores already know what he's going to say (because they are the ones who wrote his speech) or it's just another goose job to suck in a boatload of longs for the slaughter as we watch the markets tank for the rest of today. Who knows? JPM, that's who, lol.<br /><br />But as I also mentioned above, I'm short and not one bit afraid of that position although it's going to bite a bit at the open. I have a lot of dry powder so I'll just have to squeeze the old sphincter a little tighter for the first hour and see what happens after that, lol. As I also mentioned to Papa, the 6 day MA has rolled lower and dropped beneath the 12 day which is a pretty darned rare event and very reliable... <i>usually</i>. Mind you, I'm not being hard nosed and insisting that the markets have topped. I'm fully open minded to the idea that there is another thrust higher here to perhaps 1440ish although I just can't see why that should happen because Bernanke IS NOT GOING TO ANNOUNCE ANY QE TODAY. If he was going to announce it, he wouldn't likely do it today when the next FOMC is on Sept. 12-13th. having said that though, this is going to be one hell of a mighty open so maybe it's just the start of two weeks of more upside as they 'jawbone' the market higher until Sept. 12th. It's too bad banks are allowed to participate in the markets at all because back in the days when they had shackles on, as they should, this kind of shit never happened. It's the slickest form of theft perpetrated on all of mankind ever invented and I hope to live long enough to see them face the consequences of that. I plan on living another 90 years if that's what it's going to take, lol.Albertarockshttp://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3285685659201746004.post-32493013020174705642012-08-31T02:34:48.423-06:002012-08-31T02:34:48.423-06:00I love that vacuum volume chart, it's hypnotiz...I love that vacuum volume chart, it's hypnotizing. I bet the bounce will be short and hard once it hits 1350 as I feel there are many swing trades/knife catchers poised to pounce on that, with an even larger selling response at the right resistance...beneficiarynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3285685659201746004.post-9653421005273362312012-08-30T23:28:30.310-06:002012-08-30T23:28:30.310-06:00Yup, I'm almost certain Bernanke rattles off ...Yup, I'm almost certain Bernanke rattles off the same old mantra tomorrow which for some bizarre reason has somehow been twisted by the market makers to have been 'good news' when he disappointed with no announcement of QE. Same thing tomorrow I think, but one of these days his "nope, not yet" mantra is going to have the effect it 'should'. In any case, if a swift wave 3 is on the horizon, the area identified in the chart above is exactly where those things happen.Albertarockshttp://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3285685659201746004.post-7612710108521990002012-08-30T20:29:55.849-06:002012-08-30T20:29:55.849-06:00It's certainly gonna get interesting if it is ...It's certainly gonna get interesting if it is a high-degree wave 3 down getting underway.Papa_Boulehttp://boulechat.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3285685659201746004.post-40808791302871700332012-08-30T13:17:09.361-06:002012-08-30T13:17:09.361-06:00Just want to show you why the S&P is getting s...Just want to show you why the S&P is getting support right here. <br />Using SPY as a proxy for the S&P, past volume metrics show that once<br /> 1400 is breached there's almost a vacuum of volume down until 1375ish. <br /> It should get there in a hurry. Below that, support would begin to <br />increase the deeper it drops until it gets to (if it gets to) 1355ish where support would likely be formidable.Albertarockshttp://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3285685659201746004.post-69116054705122774312012-08-26T13:51:54.410-06:002012-08-26T13:51:54.410-06:00It's kind of tempting to think so, but I'm...It's kind of tempting to think so, but I'm not one who thinks a collapse will be deliberately engineered. Too many very powerful people stand to lose too much. I've been one to believe that a big downward social mood wave will eventually overwhelm intervention -- which maybe has been stretched pretty close to its effective limits.<br /><br />I think the PTB know the limits of the effectiveness of intervention too. That's one reason they've been lobbying Greece to stay put in the EU. They know things could get out of hand.Papa_Boulehttp://boulechat.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3285685659201746004.post-86576069815480250452012-08-26T08:34:07.108-06:002012-08-26T08:34:07.108-06:00My long term EW count on the GDOW. http://mediacdn...My long term EW count on the GDOW. http://mediacdn.disqus.com/uploads/mediaembed/images/301/7302/original.jpg <br /><br />Your count is my Alt count (which I'm not sure shouldn't be the preferred count . . .)HighRevhttp://highrevsopenhouse.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3285685659201746004.post-82795679613916544902012-08-25T15:28:05.651-06:002012-08-25T15:28:05.651-06:00Since the day Obama was elected, I've felt tha...Since the day Obama was elected, I've felt that he was being set up to be the biggest fall-guy in the history of the universe. Then as late as only about 2 months ago I started to think I was probably wrong about that, that the markets would indeed somehow magically just keep rising right into the election. And maybe that's still the case. But I'm also starting to get goose bumps all over again, realizing that maybe, just maybe they're going to sacrifice Obama after all and fool everybody by allowing a gigantic crash that starts earlier than the historically famous-for-crashes month of Oct. One thing is certain, it doesn't matter one iota who, or which party, is in power. The bastards own all of them anyway.Albertarockshttp://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3285685659201746004.post-75368616498745994822012-08-25T12:26:51.753-06:002012-08-25T12:26:51.753-06:00Yeah, I was leaning toward that count that took th...Yeah, I was leaning toward that count that took the elections and even the Santa rally into view (thinking the current correction was a 4 with a 5 down yet to come, with an ABC correction up to the end of the year). But since that count busted and is off the table, things look quite a bit different.Papa_Boulehttp://boulechat.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3285685659201746004.post-60465030246578971622012-08-25T10:17:43.082-06:002012-08-25T10:17:43.082-06:00I love where you're looking Papa, focusing on ...I love where you're looking Papa, focusing on areas where more 'purity' (or 'honesty') can be found. We could actually fine tune it a bit too I think, and fairly safely, by using ($NYA) NYSE since it's so much broader of a market than the S&P is, yet it's domestic. It provides the same basic honesty as GDOW does but is closer to home if you know what I'm getting at. Thanks again for your perspectives, as always.Albertarockshttp://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.com